Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shorewood, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:17AMSunset 8:19PM Thursday May 24, 2018 6:34 PM CDT (23:34 UTC) Moonrise 3:13PMMoonset 3:05AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 505 Pm Cdt Thu May 24 2018
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots backing south in the afternoon. Sunny in the morning then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots veering southwest late in the evening, then easing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing south in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ645 Expires:201805250400;;473876 FZUS53 KMKX 242206 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 505 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-250400-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shorewood, WI
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location: 43.04, -87.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 242254
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
554 pm cdt Thu may 24 2018

Update
Quiet and very mild tonight. No changes to the short term forecast
needed.

Aviation(00z tafs)
ExpectVFR conditions through the TAF period. Toward the end of
the TAF period (00z Saturday), we expect a line of showers and
thunderstorms, initially developing over northern and central
wisconsin, to push south through the evening. A few of these
storms could be severe with 1 inch hail and winds to 60 mph. They
would mainly be west of kmke kues kenw.

Prev discussion (issued 343 pm cdt Thu may 24 2018)
short term...

tonight through Saturday morning... Forecast confidence is high...

the primary concern in this period is the potential for
thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. Southerly winds at
the surface will usher in more warm and moist air, pushing
Friday's high temperatures into the upper 80s and MLCAPE values
into the 1000-1500 j kg range.

Meanwhile, an upper level shortwave will swing through the region
Friday afternoon evening, providing a source of synoptic scale
lift for storms. Storms will likely initiate in western wi
southeastern mn in the afternoon before pushing into southern
wisconsin in the late afternoon and evening.

Given 0-6 km bulk shear magnitudes in the 20-30 kt range, impacts
from the storms will likely be limited to scattered heavy rain,
small hail, and gusty winds. However, with the instability levels
mentioned above, steep lapse rates, and some dry air evident in
the soundings, there is a marginal risk for storms putting down
hail up to 1" and winds up to 60 mph.

Saturday and Sunday... Forecast confidence is high...

the northern stream shortwave over michigan moves across the
eastern great lakes. A general west northwest flow pattern aloft
along the u.S. Canadian border. Overall, flow is weak and warm and
humid conditions will continue. Forecast soundings show moderate
cape values. However little if any forcing. As a result model
runs are trending drier for Saturday and Sunday but a brief
thunderstorm is not out of the question.

With the summer-like upper pattern, very warm temperatures are
expected, with a lake breeze developing close to lake michigan.

Long term...

memorial day through Thursday... Forecast confidence is medium...

a weak upper ridge builds into wisconsin Monday, before an
upstream shortwave moves in late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Surface high pressure brings quiet weather on memorial day. This
will cause winds to become more easterly, but still light.

Temperatures may start to cool Monday near lake michigan with the
onset of the easterly flow.

Slightly cooler, but still warm, temperatures are expected
starting Tuesday. Precipitation chances increase mid week, with
still mild temperatures.

Aviation(18z tafs)...

after a quiet night, concern then turns to the potential for
storms tomorrow afternoon and evening. The ingredients appear to
be in place for scattered storms, and the meso models are picking
up on this. Storms appear to be more likely in the west, and there
is a marginal risk for some of these storms to put down hail up
to 1" and winds up to 60 mph.

Marine...

conditions will be calm until Friday when southwest winds pick up
to around 15 kts, pushing wave heights to around 2-3 feet in the
afternoon. Thunderstorms are also possible on Friday afternoon.

This weekend, temperatures will push into the upper 80s and dew
points will reach well into the 60s over land. As this air advects
over to cool lake, dense fog remains a possibility.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Davis
tonight Friday and aviation marine... Bsh
Friday night through Thursday... Hentz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 1 mi45 min SE 14 G 15 59°F
45013 5 mi58 min SSE 12 G 14 58°F 53°F1 ft1017.7 hPa
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 24 mi55 min S 4.1 G 6 64°F 1018.6 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 32 mi35 min 64°F 1017.6 hPa (-2.0)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 47 mi55 min SSW 4.1 G 4.1 67°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI6 mi43 minSSE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F55°F47%1017.4 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI10 mi50 minSE 910.00 miClear82°F50°F32%1017.6 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI16 mi50 minS 410.00 miClear82°F55°F40%1017.9 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi42 minS 12 G 1710.00 miFair76°F53°F45%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE7S5S4SW4SW4S3CalmSW3SW3CalmS4CalmS3S7S5SW7SE9SE9SE12SE13SE12SE10SE9
1 day agoSE4SE3CalmCalmW3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmNW5NW4W4CalmCalmSW54SE9SE10SE9SE11SE12SE10SE10
2 days agoN5N8NE4N6N4N5N4N6N4CalmNE6N3N3NE3N3NE4NE4E3NE3CalmE3SE4E6E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.