Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shorewood, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:13AMSunset 8:36PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 2:00 PM CDT (19:00 UTC) Moonrise 10:30AMMoonset 11:59PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 935 Am Cdt Wed Jun 28 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..South wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms late in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely through around midnight, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Thursday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through around midnight, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ645 Expires:201706282215;;954953 FZUS53 KMKX 281435 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 935 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-645-282215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shorewood, WI
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location: 43.04, -87.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 281501 aaa
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1001 am cdt Wed jun 28 2017

Update
A line of showers and a few thunderstorms developed out ahead of
the main area of weakening showers over southeast wi this morning.

These are on the leading edge of the nose of the low level jet.

There are signs of convection developing over northeast iowa late
this morning. I think this will be the thing to watch for our next
round of thunderstorms in southern wi around mid afternoon. This
will be a long the CAPE gradient and within steady 850mb warm air
advection and moisture transport. The potential for severe is
there, but surface-based CAPE is going to be limited until we get
some sunshine.

There is sunshine over western ia right now, so if we can get that
late this afternoon, then there is potential for severe
thunderstorms this evening. Nevertheless, we can expect yet
another round or two of thunderstorms later this evening. One
round with the outflow boundary from this mid afternoon
convection, and another round with a surface frontal boundary.

Marine
Gusty southerly winds will ramp up late this morning and remain
so through late evening. Waves will build to 3 to 6 feet by this
afternoon. A small craft advisory is in effect

Prev discussion (issued 524 am cdt Wed jun 28 2017)
aviation(12z tafs)...

showers and storms will push across the area this morning. They
reach madison around 8 am and milwaukee around 11 am. Look for
cigs to steadily lower, possibly dropping to MVFR levels for a
few hours during the morning rain. Look forVFR conditions then
from this afternoon into tonight. We could see thunderstorms
redevelop late this afternoon and evening, but it is conditional
on how quickly we can clear out the clouds and rain from the
morning activity. There are indications that redevelopment will
occur primarily across iowa into illinois and possibly far
southern wisconsin. If we clear out, much of southern wisconsin
will be threatened by strong storms. Brief MVFR ifr CIGS vsbys are
possible with any thunderstorms.

Look for breezy southwest winds today, diminishing tonight.

Prev discussion... (issued 310 am cdt Wed jun 28 2017)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is high.

Confidence is high that the area will get some rain and
thunderstorms today. Confidence is more challenged with respect to
the severe potential. The concerns challenges remain the same as
those expressed in prior discussions. We have a morning round of
showers and storms that will come through with the initial warm
and moist air advection. The morning activity is not expected to
be severe and will be diminishing through the morning in typical
nocturnal thunderstorm fashion. It should reach the madison area
by mid morning and the milwaukee metro area by late morning. It
will be falling apart by mid day.

The concern is our ability to recover for the afternoon. The
morning activity will lay out a boundary from southern wisconsin
back into iowa that will then be the focus for redevelopment. It
appears the best initiation along this boundary will be across
iowa this afternoon, where the atmosphere will have the best
chance to recover, also coupled with strong deep layer shear.

Another area of redevelopment will be closer to the low center and
deeper dynamics over west central and northwest wisconsin.

Southern wi may be fairly dry through the afternoon as we wait for
the upstream redevelopment to move in.

Redevelopment occurs late this afternoon across iowa. As that
activity organizes into a linear system, it should push into
southwest wisconsin, possibly connecting with the convection
farther to the north, moving through the remainder of southern
wisconsin. However, some of the models do show a weakness in
coverage across southern wisconsin this evening, so we'll have to
see how this plays out.

Spc has put all of southern wi in a slight risk with an enhanced
risk now running from baraboo, to madison to janesville and points
west. This is conditional, of course, and depends on where the
morning convective boundary lays out, where the atmosphere
recovers best and how the new development upstream behaves this
afternoon. Large hail, strong winds and a few tornadoes are
possible. The highest tornado threat will be in the enhanced risk
area.

Long term...

Thursday through Saturday... Forecast confidence is medium:
another low pressure system will approach on Thursday and is
expected to move through Thursday night and Friday. There will be
a chance for showers storms by later Thursday afternoon and into
the evening as deeper moisture and better instability return.

Showers and storms are then likely Thursday night into Friday as
the low moves through. SPC has the main severe wx threat through
this period to the east on Friday, which makes sense given the
timing of the low passing through earlier in the day.

Scattered showers and a few storms are possible Saturday as a
wave rotates through the broad upper trough in place over the
great lakes.

Should see temps within a few degrees of normal thu-sat.

Sunday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium:
have some low precip chances Sunday per the canadian bringing
another wave through. Looks like a dry day though per the GFS and
ecmwf. Better confidence that a wave may bring showers and storm
chances Monday as a troughing pattern remains in the region.

The flow turns more zonal for Tuesday as the trough departs. The
gfs and canadian show a waves sliding through with precip clipping
the south, so have some low precip chances in there. The ecmwf
has a stronger surface high that arrives sooner, which would
result in a dry day.

Temps early next week look near normal.

Aviation(06z tafs)...

early morning clouds are increasing ahead of an approaching area
of showers and thunderstorms. Llws is developing at this time,
but will dissipate by late morning as breezy south winds develop
at the surface. An area of showers and scattered thunderstorms
will move east across southern wisconsin through the day with
additional development of strong to severe storms late this
afternoon or evening. Areas of MVFR CIGS and ifr vsbys will be
likely in showers or thunderstorms.

Marine...

strong south to southwest winds will result in small craft
advisory conditions today through tonight.

Beaches...

strong southerly winds will bring a high swim risk to the sheboygan
county beaches. Winds will be a bit more off shore and waves will
be lower south of that area. However, a moderate swim risk covers
all of southeast wisconsin lake michigan beaches.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Beach hazards statement from 1 pm cdt this afternoon through
late tonight for wiz052.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 6 am cdt Thursday for lmz643>646.

Update... Cronce
today tonight and aviation marine... Davis
Thursday through Tuesday... Ddv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 1 mi51 min SW 13 G 17 64°F
45013 5 mi82 min S 12 G 14 59°F 53°F1011.9 hPa
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 24 mi81 min SW 6 G 9.9 61°F 1012.5 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 32 mi61 min SSW 14 G 24 65°F 1011.9 hPa (-2.3)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 47 mi81 min S 17 G 25 63°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI6 mi69 minSSW 1410.00 miOvercast65°F60°F84%1011.7 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI10 mi76 minSSW 11 G 1710.00 miLight Drizzle63°F57°F83%1012.2 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI16 mi76 minSSW 9 G 1510.00 miOvercast61°F57°F88%1012.5 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi68 minSSW 11 G 2410.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F59°F81%1012.3 hPa

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW105W6
G16
W11SW7S9S7S9S8S5S5S5S4S7S7S7S9S10S12S12S9S17
G27
S14SW12
1 day agoNW15
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NW11NW7NW5W3W4W3W4W5W6W6W6W8W8W9NW12
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2 days agoW14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.