Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shorewood, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:19PM Friday December 15, 2017 8:06 AM CST (14:06 UTC) Moonrise 5:34AMMoonset 4:02PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 705 Am Cst Fri Dec 15 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm cst this evening...
Today..West wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Periods of very light snow in the morning, then scattered flurries late in the morning. Chance of flurries late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late morning and early afternoon, then subsiding to 1 to 2 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight, then veering northwest early in the morning. Slight chance of snow through around midnight, then chance of snow after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..East wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then veering southeast late in the afternoon. Slight chance of snow in the morning. Waves around 1 foot building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southeast wind 5 to 15 knots becoming 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then backing east 5 to 15 knots after midnight becoming 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ645 Expires:201712151700;;929284 FZUS53 KMKX 151305 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 705 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-151700-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shorewood, WI
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location: 43.04, -87.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 151128
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
528 am cst Fri dec 15 2017

Update
The area of very light snow was moving across much of the area. A
dusting with a few tenths of fluffy snow. Mainly trace liquid
equivalent.

Aviation(12z tafs)
MVFR ceilings this morning. Very light snow flurries are expected
most areas, with a dusting as a mid level shortwave drops down.

Cigs should lift toVFR today most areas, with west winds
becoming gusty from mid morning through the afternoon hours. Look
for MVFR ifr conditions late tonight as a band of light snow
drops in from the northwest. Best chance of accumulation snow
around 1 inch is north of madison and north of milwaukee.

Prev discussion (issued 301 am cst Fri dec 15 2017)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium...

a fairly strong mid level trough will drop southeast across mainly
southeast wisconsin from the northwest early this morning and off
to lower michigan by noon. Weak 700 mb upward motion should add to
the very light snow flurries that will move across, with a
dusting north and east. Then a lull later morning south central
and across the area this afternoon. An upper level jet MAX then
pushes into southern wisconsin tonight, with the left front
quadrant expected to bring 700 mb upward motion and weak upper
divergence. This combined with a developing baroclinic zone,
should result in a band of light snow spreading northwest to
southeast later tonight. Most models point to north areas, but the
rap is farther south with the MAX band. Even so only expected
around an inch of snow in the narrow band of MAX precipitation.

Long term...

Saturday and Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium to high:
the snow will wind down Saturday morning, with a little lingering
precip far northeast in the afternoon. Another half inch or so is
possible in the northeast through the morning.

Kept a low chance of rain and snow going in the south Sunday
afternoon, though models seem to be trending drier for this
period.

Temps will likely be a few degrees above normal through the
weekend.

Monday through Thursday... Forecast confidence is medium:
models show a little rain or snow Monday or Monday night as a
wave moves through the area. Kept precip chances on the low end
given fairly limited moisture and weak lift. Also, there are
enough differences among models to make it difficult to pin down
a period of higher pops.

It should be dry Tuesday into Wednesday per latest models showing
high pressure building in. Precip chances will then increase
Wednesday night into Thursday as a stronger low pressure system
is progged to move through the region. Models are in decent
agreement with the placement timing of this low considering it's 6
days out. The model consensus brings the warm sector of the low
into the forecast area, with rain seeming more likely Wed night
into Thursday. Could see a transition to snow from northwest to
southeast Thursday night as the tail end of the precip moves
through. This looks like a decent snow maker for the region, so
will have to keep an eye on future model runs, as a shift south
would bring some of the higher amounts into the forecast area.

Temperatures are expected to be mainly above normal for Monday
through Thursday. Looking ahead... Models are still suggesting
much colder temps then arriving for late week into the weekend
behind the departing low.

Aviation(09z tafs)...

MVFR ceilings early this morning. Very light snow flurries are
expected most areas, with maybe a dusting as a mid level shortwave
drops down.

Cigs should lift toVFR today, with west winds becoming gusty
from mid morning through the afternoon hours. Look for MVFR ifr
conditions late Friday night as a band of light snow drops in
from the northwest.

Marine...

west winds will gust to small craft levels mid morning into the
afternoon as low pressure moves across the upper great lakes. Sca
in effect from 6 am til 6 pm cst.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for lmz643>646.

Update... Hentz
today tonight and aviation marine... Hentz
Saturday through Thursday... Ddv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 1 mi46 min W 12 G 17 24°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 24 mi86 min WNW 6 G 13 24°F 1012.2 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 32 mi66 min WNW 17 G 21 24°F 1011.9 hPa (-0.6)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 47 mi86 min W 9.9 G 15 24°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Last
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NE4
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G15
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G11
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SE6
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G12
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G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI6 mi74 minW 13 G 219.00 miLight Snow27°F16°F63%1012.6 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI10 mi71 minW 10 G 1510.00 miOvercast23°F14°F68%1011.5 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI16 mi81 minW 1010.00 miOvercast19°F15°F86%1011.5 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi73 minWNW 10 G 2010.00 miOvercast24°F15°F68%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW3W5W6NW7W6W6NW6NW5W3CalmCalmSW4S7S7SW7S8SW8SW9SW6W7W15
G30
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1 day agoSE13S10S7S8SW6NW4NW6NW12NW14
G21
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N9NW8NW8NW7NW6NW7NW6NW5
2 days agoNW11
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NW11W14
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NW10NW5NW5W7NW9W7W5W5SW4S5S5S6S8S9S9S11
G23
S12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.