Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Newfields, NH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 7:09PM Thursday March 30, 2017 8:28 PM EDT (00:28 UTC) Moonrise 8:17AMMoonset 10:19PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 643 Pm Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
Rest of tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain or snow in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Snow, rain. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm.
Sat..NE winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Snow, rain. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm.
Sat night..N winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of rain or snow in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of rain and snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain likely or a chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ100 643 Pm Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. High pressure crosses the gulf of maine tonight and Friday. Low pressure will move by south of cape cod Friday night into Saturday. Another low may take a similar track Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Newfields, NH
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location: 43.05, -70.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 302035
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
435 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017

Synopsis
High pressure shifts east tonight while the next in a series of
low pressure systems moves east out of the ohio valley. This low
is expected to track to the south of new england on Friday into
Friday night, spreading snow into new hampshire and maine during
the Friday and Friday night and lasting into Saturday. This
will be a heavy, wet snowfall for some of the area. There may
be some rain near the coast on Saturday which may limit
accumulations there. Snow ends by Saturday evening as low
pressure moves out to sea. High pressure pushes in from the west
Sunday and moves over new england on Monday. The next low
pressure system will track near the area on Tuesday and will
provide another chance of rain or wintry precipitation.

Near term /tonight/
Considerable uncertainty still remains in the forecast with
respect to snow amounts across the region even at this
relatively late hour. Significant differences remain in mass
fields between several members of the 12z guidance suite today.

This along with differing thermal profiles is resulting in
large qpf/snowfall discrepancies in the guidance depending on
your location in the cwa. The greatest concerns at this hour are
1) the northward extent of the heavy snow shield, and 2) how far
north do above-freezing 850-750mb temperatures advance. In the
end here, we took a blend of the available guidance to produce
the forecast as well as the utilization of GFS and ecmwf
ensemble guidance.

For tonight, mostly clear skies early on will allow for
temperatures to drop into the 20s at most locations. Clouds will
eventually thicken, especially in the west later this evening
and overnight. Not expecting much in the way of precipitation
overnight except perhaps some light snow beginning late across
cheshire county nh where up to an inch of snow may fall by 12z.

Short term /Friday through Saturday/
Precipitation then advances gradually across nh on Friday, but
anything substantial should remain west of maine prior to 00z.

Even though it should be snowing in much of central and southern
nh by early afternoon, lower elevations may not see much in the
way of accumulations as the precip may remain light. In fact, a
mix with light rain will be possible at times at lower
elevations. However, higher elevations, especially in SW nh will
likely see several inches of snow during the day.

Snow will advance northeastward across much of central and
southern me Friday evening. The only question is how far. This
is related to short wave phasing that is not being handled well
by the models at this time. For now, we took a blend of the
available guidance and left watches up where the most
uncertainty remains. Nevertheless, a significant heavy wet
snowfall remains possible in the watch area, which could mean
power outage issues.

The snow winds down and ends Saturday afternoon. Winds should
not be a big factor with this storm.

Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/
The departing low will take any lingering precipitation with it
Saturday evening, with only some upslope northwesterly snow
showers left over in the mountains Saturday night. High pressure
builds east into the area Sunday into Monday. Expect
temperatures near normal levels with highs in the 40s and lows
in the 20s to low 30s.

The two major global models still are in some disagreement on
the evolution of the last two waves ejecting out of the
southwestern united states and toward new england this week. The
first will be arriving in our area on Tuesday. The GFS maintains
a more robust northern stream wave moving through canada while
minimizing the southern wave moving off the southern coast of
new england. This means that our area would be sort of in
between these two systems, but the presence of the northern wave
keeps a south to southeasterly flow over maine and new hampshire
which only allows for minimal cold air damming. The ecmwf
however gives virtually no weight to the northern wave and plays
up the southern one. This gives us another opportunity for a
significant wintry precipitation event. The ECMWF scenario locks
in enough cold air on a northeast flow to bring snow to the
area, potentially another plowable amount. Given the wide range
of differences between the models during this time period we
cannot have a whole lot of confidence in what will occur.

However, the ECMWF scenario makes a little more sense overall
and in either scenario there will be enough cold air dammed east
of the mountains especially in interior western maine to be
concerned about precipitation type, including the possibility of
a period of freezing rain. So for now, we have decided to trend
the forecast a little more toward the ECMWF solution and have
included wording for rain or snow with a chance of freezing rain
as well in the most likely dammed areas.

There will be a break in the weather for Wednesday as high
pressure slides by in between the troughs. Temperatures will
again be near normal levels, in the mid to upper 40s. But the
next system takes aim at us on Thursday. The ECMWF again
develops a coastal low tracking through southern new england
which would bring a better chance for snow, while the gfs
maintains the initial low moving through the saint lawrence
valley, a generally warmer solution (at least aloft). Again,
with either scenario we will have to be at least somewhat
concerned about precipitation type, and for now have included
rain or snow in the forecast.

Aviation /20z Thursday through Tuesday/
Short term...VFR conditions tonight, lowering to ifr in nh
Friday and me Friday night. All areas will be ifr in snow Friday
night and at least the first part of Saturday. Improvement is
foreseen late in the afternoon Saturday.

Long term... Should see improvement toVFR conditions Saturday
evening except for some possible lingering MVFR or ifr
conditions north of the mountains in upslope clouds and snow
showers. Should goVFR everywhere on Sunday. Conditions
deteriorate again Monday night into Tuesday as the next system
approaches. Ifr or worse conditions will be likely on Tuesday
with rain or snow.

Marine
Short term... SCA has been cancelled this afternoon as winds and
seas have subsided. Another SCA will be likely late Friday
night and Saturday.

Long term... High pressure moving across the area will keep winds
fairly light and seas under 5 ft through Monday. Low pressure
moving near the southern new england coastline on Tuesday may
bring a period of higher winds and seas which could reach
advisory levels. If a more aggressive low develops as shown by
the ECMWF model, then gale force winds will be possible.

Tides/coastal flooding
A very high astronomical tide will occur early Friday morning
with 11.1' expected in portland at around 06z. Onshore winds and
seas will just be beginning to develop at this time so no issues
expected. Northeast flow will be more pronounced during the
Saturday afternoon high tide which is lower at 10.3'. Expect
about a 0.5 to 1.0 storm surge at that time which would bring
the storm tide to around 11.0 feet or so. With waves only
running 5 feet or so at the time, splash-over nomograms suggest
to only expect little or no impacts along the coastline.

Gyx watches/warnings/advisories
Me... Winter storm watch from Friday evening through Saturday
evening for mez012-018>020-023-024.

Nh... Winter storm watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
afternoon for nhz002-004-006-009-010-012-013.

Winter storm warning from 8 am Friday to 4 pm edt Saturday for
nhz003-005-007-008-011-015.

Winter storm watch from Friday evening through Saturday
evening for nhz014.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 4 mi104 min SE 1.9 40°F 1021 hPa25°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 16 mi29 min SSE 9.9 G 9.9 39°F 1020.9 hPa (+0.7)31°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 26 mi41 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 39°F 42°F1021 hPa
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 27 mi85 min SSW 7.8 G 7.8 39°F 39°F2 ft1019.8 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 28 mi89 min S 4.1 38°F 30°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 41 mi85 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 40°F 40°F3 ft1020 hPa
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 43 mi23 min 40°F3 ft
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 49 mi41 min 41°F 39°F1020.8 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH6 mi91 minSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy38°F23°F55%1020.1 hPa
Rochester - Skyhaven Airport, NH16 mi38 minS 510.00 miFair39°F21°F48%1020.2 hPa

Wind History from PSM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11NW9NW6NW6NW9NW4CalmNW6NW8NW4NW5NW5NW9NW12NW11N8N7N8CalmNW10SE8SE8SE8SE6
1 day agoNE4CalmN5N4N3N3N5N5N4N5NW4N5N7NW9N7N3W4W10W14
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2 days agoN6N8N7NW4N5N44N5N3NE5CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmSE4E3SE3SE4E4E3E3NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Squamscott River RR. Bridge, Piscataqua River, New Hampshire
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Squamscott River RR. Bridge
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Thu -- 03:24 AM EDT     8.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:01 AM EDT     -1.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     7.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:20 PM EDT     -0.71 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.657.18.28.17.15.43.11-0.5-1.1-0.51.23.65.97.587.464.11.90.2-0.7-0.4

Tide / Current Tables for Portsmouth Harbor Entrance, New Hampshire Current
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Portsmouth Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:54 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:52 AM EDT     -2.44 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:37 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:47 AM EDT     1.73 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:15 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:13 PM EDT     -2.37 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.10.6-0.1-1.1-2.1-2.4-2.1-1.5-0.70.41.41.71.30.70.2-0.7-1.8-2.3-2.2-1.6-0.90.11.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.