Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Haven, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 5:19PM Saturday November 18, 2017 3:26 AM EST (08:26 UTC) Moonrise 7:34AMMoonset 5:54PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 913 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
.gale warning in effect from Saturday morning through Sunday morning...
Rest of tonight..South winds 20 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 20 knots late at night, then veering southwest toward daybreak. Rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then rain showers overnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to gales to 35 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 6 to 9 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest gales to 35 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers in the evening, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers overnight. Waves 7 to 10 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain and snow showers until midday. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
LMZ846 Expires:201711181015;;571497 FZUS53 KGRR 180213 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 913 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-181015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Haven, MI
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location: 43.05, -86.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 180535
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1235 am est Sat nov 18 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 317 pm est Fri nov 17 2017
rain will move into the area beginning this evening. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible near and south of i-94 Saturday
morning. Otherwise, Saturday will be cool with highs in the 40s.

The heavier precipitation exits to the east early Saturday night.

This will be followed by colder air will spreading into the area.

Some lingering light rain showers will change to flurries towards
Sunday morning. Flurries are possible near and west of us-131 on
Sunday with highs only in the 30s. Afterwards, the coming week
looks mostly dry with highs generally in the 40s.

Update
Issued at 713 pm est Fri nov 17 2017
a couple of thunderstorms were over lake mi at this time moving
quickly east. I have expanded the mention of storms in the
forecast... With the potential now roughly interstate 96 and south.

I also increased the pops. The potential for storms after midnight
gradually shifts southeast with time... Which was also reflected in
this update.

Update issued at 602 pm est Fri nov 17 2017
we have added a mention of thunder for this evening over lake mi
and additional areas south of i-96. This is based on thunderstorm
development over north central il in a region of 500+ j kg mucape,
per rap model estimates. This plume of instability and attendant
potential for thunder is expected to overspread far southwestern
lower mi later this evening before peeling off to the southeast
Saturday morning.

Short term (this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 317 pm est Fri nov 17 2017
little change to the previous forecast regarding precipitation
tonight into Saturday. The most likely scenario is that thunderstorms
will remain south of the area Saturday based on the SREF and
several convection allowing models. However, for the sake of
continuity, have kept a slight chance for the i-94 corridor,
especially since elevated instability isn't always handled well by
the models. Precipitation totals are expected to range from
around 0.75 inches northwest to 1.5 inches southeast near jackson.

A more uncertain but potentially impactful aspect of the forecast is
wind Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. It is possible that
advisory headlines will be required with the strong post-frontal
cold advection, but this is a bit too uncertain to nail down now
with an advisory.

Finally, we expect lake effect rain showers to change over snow
Saturday night into Sunday, but any snow accumulations should be
curtailed be limited moisture depth into the dgz. Some snow
showers flurries will continue through Sunday.

Long term (Monday through Friday)
issued at 317 pm est Fri nov 17 2017
no big storms in the extended but a clipper and trailing cold front
could bring a quick shot of light snow on Tuesday afternoon or
evening followed by some lake effect snow showers into Wednesday.

Added some low chance pops Tuesday through Wednesday and trended
temperatures a bit colder during this period. A clipper tracks north
of the lakes Tuesday with enough low level convergence along the
trailing cold front to bring a brief period of snow or mixed rain
and snow late Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening.

Strong cold advection follows behind the front with 850 mb temps
falling to minus 12c Wednesday night. Model soundings show inversion
heights around 7.5 kft agl through Wednesday with northwest flow.

Ecmwf is already showing warm advection by Wednesday afternoon which
would limit lake effect snow showers. Went with low chance pops
across the favored NW flow lake effect areas Tuesday night and
Wednesday but it appears the highers chances will be Tuesday
night.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1233 am est Sat nov 18 2017
ifr conditions expected tonight into Saturday. Another area of low
pressure will move across far southern lower michigan Saturday and
bring more rain. Can't rule out a thunderstorm, but confidence was
too low to put into the tafs. We'll likely see the rain mix with
some snow during the afternoon and evening behind the low as
colder air wraps in.

Marine
Issued at 317 pm est Fri nov 17 2017
will keep the small craft advisory intact with a transition to a
gale warning at 10 am est Saturday and lasting through Saturday
night. This timing is to align with the gale warning issued for the
open waters, although it is more likely that gale force gusts over
the nearshore waters will commence in the early afternoon. Gale
conditions across the northern marine zones could end as early as
Saturday evening.

Hydrology
Issued at 1042 am est Fri nov 17 2017
better confidence in precipitation forecasts has resulted in
additional river advisories this morning. Widespread rainfall will
affect lower michigan tonight into Saturday with precipitation
totals of 0.75+ inches by early Sunday morning. Amounts will
increase from north to south with the greatest totals expected
south of i-96.

River rises are forecast through the weekend and should stabilize
into next week as precipitation vacates the area. Though current
forecasts anticipate drier conditions, rivers will remain elevated
and responsive. Any changes to include additional precipitation
may need to be closely monitored.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for lmz844>849.

Gale warning from 10 am this morning to 7 am est Sunday for
lmz844>849.

Update... Mjs
synopsis... Tjt
short term... Tjt
long term... Ostuno
aviation... 04
hydrology... Jam
marine... Tjt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 12 mi26 min NW 12 G 12 45°F 1000.8 hPa (-2.4)43°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi36 min W 7.8 G 9.7 46°F 49°F4 ft1000.8 hPa (-1.8)
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 45 mi26 min S 9.9 G 11 45°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI10 mi31 minW 610.00 miOvercast47°F43°F86%1000.6 hPa

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6E8SE9SE10SE9SE10SE9SE9SE12SE11
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1 day agoNW14
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NW12N11NW12NW12NW7N6N6N3CalmE4E3E3SE4SE3SE4
2 days agoSE6SE7SE7SE8SE10S9S8S10S11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.