Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Haven, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 5:18PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 2:58 AM EST (07:58 UTC) Moonrise 4:17PMMoonset 4:31AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1007 Pm Est Mon Nov 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..North winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely through about 2 am, then partly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..North winds around 15 knots backing west 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. A slight chance of snow showers until midday. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds to 30 knots veering northwest toward daybreak. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain and snow showers until midday. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
LMZ846 Expires:201811201015;;567672 FZUS53 KGRR 200307 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1007 PM EST Mon Nov 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-201015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Haven, MI
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location: 43.05, -86.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 200446
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1146 pm est Mon nov 19 2018
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 330 pm est Mon nov 19 2018
two clipper systems moving through the area early this week, one
this evening and one on Tuesday which will bring some light snow to
the area. Accumulations will generally be light, on the order of a
dusting, but a few spots could pick up a bit more. The most favored
areas for some accumulation will be towards the lakeshore where some
lake enhancement will occur both this evening and especially Tuesday
evening. Most areas will not see significant accumulations, but west
central lower michigan near scottville, freesoil and iron may see
a quick few inches of snow Tuesday evening.

The forecast turns quiet for Wednesday and Thursday with high
pressure situated across the great lakes region. We will be cool and
dry through this time frame. A warmer system moving in for the end
of the week will bring the threat of rain from Friday into Saturday.

Update
Issued at 950 pm est Mon nov 19 2018
forecast still looking on track. Snow has spread in coverage
across the forecast area since 9 pm slightly ahead of schedule but
radar and surface observations indicate light intensity with
little if any restriction to visibility. A burst of moderate
intensity snow with the cold front is over lake michigan west of
the sable points and pushing south. There is evidence of a land
breeze boundary that recently pushed offshore. This should keep
snowfall intensity at the lake shore in check as the front
continues its southward push down lake michigan.

Discussion (this evening through next Monday)
issued at 330 pm est Mon nov 19 2018
forecast focus in the next 7 days is on snow accumulations with the
2 clipper systems one this evening and another Tuesday evening,
chances for rain Fri Sat and some accumulating snow potentially
Sunday night into Monday.

The first clipper system is moving through our region at the current
time, with a band of snow located along the cold front stretching
from northeast lower michigan southwest toward muskegon and
ludington. Webcams are showing snow at places like hart and muskegon
at 315pm, but little in the way of accumulation is occurring. The
lack of accumulation is mainly due to precip rates being weak. We
are not expecting much in the way of accumulation out of this
evening's event, generally on the order of a dusting to a half inch
or so in spots. We should see the band of light snow progress south
through the forecast area this evening, with north flow lake effect
setting up in its wake (the bulk of which will stay off shore
tonight).

The next event could be a bit more interesting in spots. Another
fast moving clipper dives southeast through the area Tuesday
evening. This clipper will once again have very light snowfall
across the bulk of the area. The exception may be in the northwest
cwa up towards freesoil and irons Tuesday evening. Higher resolution
models like the NAM and the nmm are indicating a 3-6 hour burst of
lake enhanced snow in this area. We could see several inches of snow
locally across mason and lake counties. At this point it doesn't
look like we would need headlines but air temperatures do look to be
below freezing. If anything, it would be a short duration travel
impact.

A period of dry weather is expected Wednesday and thanksgiving day
with a sprawling area of high pressure situated over the great
lakes. Our next system looks to be "warm" enough for a cold rain
from Friday night into Saturday. Nothing heavy but we could see 0.25
to 0.50 inches of rain.

Models diverge in solutions out at longer ranges and have decided to
follow the ECMWF based on wpc's erd discussion. A low is forecast to
move through the southern great lakes Sunday night into Monday which
will drag air just cold enough for some snow for our area.

Confidence is rather low overall given the spread in the model
solutions. That said a swath of several inches of snow is forecast
via the ECMWF Sunday night into Monday across most of our area.

Plenty of time to monitor the evolution of this system going forward
and the strength of the cold air moving in behind it.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1130 pm est Mon nov 19 2018
primarily MVFR conditions will continue overnight due to low
clouds and some lingering light snow showers and flurries.

Conditions will improve toVFR for most of the day Tuesday. It
will become breezy Tuesday evening as southwest winds increase to
15 to 20 kts with gusts to near 25 kts. Conditions will
deteriorate to mainly MVFR Tuesday evening due to low clouds and
light snow showers and flurries.

Marine
Issued at 330 pm est Mon nov 19 2018
north winds increase tonight in the wake of a cold frontal passage.

20-30 knot north winds tonight will kick up a solid wave field on
the order of 3-6 feet in most areas, with 4-7 footers up near big
and little sable points. The winds subside some on Tuesday morning
and so should the waves. We expect the waves to peak late tonight,
before daybreak. The waves will likely fall below SCA criteria
during the midday hours of Tuesday. The break will be short as winds
and waves ramp up once again Tuesday evening into Tuesday night
behind another cold front. Winds Tuesday evening will reach near 30
knots once again, pushing waves to a solid 5-7 feet.

Hydrology
Issued at 217 pm est Mon nov 19 2018
there are no hydrologic concerns through the end of the week. A
few rounds of light precipitation, mostly falling in the form of
snow, will affect the area through Wednesday. The first will be
this afternoon through tonight, with a few light showers lingering
near the lakeshore through early Tuesday. The second round will
occur Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Thursday and most of
Friday look dry.

Longer range models then continue to show a wetter pattern setting
up Friday evening through early next week. Several rounds of
rainfall look to occur, although the timing from Saturday onward is
still uncertain as forecast models vary widely with the timing,
track, and strength of low pressure systems near the region. We will
continue to monitor potential rainfall amounts, but it does not look
like there will be flooding concerns.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est Tuesday for lmz845>849.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est Tuesday for lmz844.

Update... Tjt
synopsis... Duke
discussion... Duke
aviation... Laurens
hydrology... Hlo
marine... Duke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 12 mi28 min ENE 8.9 G 11 27°F 1021.2 hPa19°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 21 mi46 min NNE 12 G 18 30°F 1017.6 hPa24°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi68 min NNE 18 G 23 35°F 44°F4 ft1018.6 hPa (-0.0)30°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 45 mi28 min NNE 9.9 G 11 31°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 62 mi40 min NNE 7 G 15 27°F 17°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI10 mi63 minNNE 10 G 1610.00 miFair28°F17°F63%1019.8 hPa

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW8W7SW6SW6SW7SW9SW13SW13SW14
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1 day agoE3E3E3E4E4NE3CalmCalmCalmW10W8W12W11W8W7W5W7SW5W6SW8SW6W6W8SW8
2 days agoNW7W4N4N4CalmN3N4N7NE4N4N4N4N3N4N6N6N4NE4N4N4N5E3E4E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.