Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 9:18 PM   Moonset 5:42 AM

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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1029 Am Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
This afternoon - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tonight - North winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday night - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - South winds 5 to 15 knots diminishing to less than 10 knots. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - South winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers Monday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 251826 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 226 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
Canadian high pressure will build southeastward across our area this evening, then drift east over eastern NY and western New England tonight, before slowly settling to the New England coastline Friday.
The high will provide us with fair dry weather through Friday, with below normal temperatures through tonight giving way to readings at or a little above average on Friday as a southeasterly return flow of milder air overspreads our region. The warming trend will then continue over the weekend and into early next week, resulting in summer-like warmth engulfing our region both Sunday and Monday.
While there will also be some showers and thunderstorms around, particularly during Saturday, a fair amount of dry time can also be expected.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

One More Unseasonably Cold Night Tonight

Canadian high pressure will continue to build over the area this afternoon, keeping dry weather and mainly light breezes intact, although it will be a bit breezier near the lakeshores where a well- defined onshore flow has developed this afternoon. Remains cooler than average this afternoon with highs mainly in the mid to upper 40s, and a few of the traditionally warmer spots possibly reaching the lower half of the 50s.

Sprawling Canadian surface high pressure will settle directly across our area this evening, then drift east over eastern NY/western New England tonight. This will guarantee our dry weather continues, but will also bring the promise of one more unseasonably chilly night, with light winds and clear skies promoting excellent radiational cooling conditions. Lows will be solidly in the 20s for the bulk of the region again tonight, with some upper teens not out of the question across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario where high pressure will be centered overhead. Meanwhile, areas along the immediate Lake Erie shoreline may 'only' bottom out in the low 30s as a light southeasterly return flow develops later tonight.

Strong high pressure remains in control of our weather on Friday as it continues to drift slowly east across New England. This will not only allow dry weather to persist for a second day, but a strengthening southeasterly return flow on the back side of the high will help boost temperatures by at least 10 degrees, pushing daytime highs into the upper 50s to mid 60s for most areas.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Mid-level ridging overhead of the Great Lakes Friday night will give become zonal due to a shortwave trough passing through the next incoming longwave trough to the west across the northern Plains.
Said shortwave trough will support a surface low overhead of the northern Plains sprawling a warm front across the Great Lakes. 12Z guidance continues to support the warm front to arrive late Friday night/early Saturday morning, before weakening and crossing from west to east Saturday and Saturday night.

Heading into Sunday, the region will lie under ample warm air advection supporting temperatures at 850mb to warm up to +12/13 C which will support high temperatures well above normal and ranging in the 70s, and possibly a few locations across the warmer areas of the Genesee Valley reaching in the low 80s. Combination of the warmer temperatures and the lingering synoptic lift from the lingering/stalled cold front to the north of the area, will support diurnally driven instability and afternoon showers/thunderstorms.

The mid-level ridge axis will cross the area Sunday night supporting a some dry weather to return Sunday night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Monday, will focus any chances for convective showers near a lingering frontal boundary that will waver across the Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario region. Could see a few thunderstorms during the afternoon with several hundred J/KG of MUCAPE, though much of the afternoon should be dry with developing lake breeze boundaries keeping areas closer to Lake Erie stable.

The main cold front will cross our region Tuesday with additional showers and thunderstorms. Showers and isolated thunder ahead of the front will reach a still mild WNY late Monday night and Tuesday morning. Best chances for thunder will be towards the east where a later arrival of the cold front will allow for some daytime instability to grow.

Still some timing differences with the eventual passage of the mid level trough, with chances for showers either Wednesday or Thursday depending upon timing of upper level support.

It will be a pleasantly warm day ahead of the cold front Monday, with southwesterly flow and 850 hPa temperatures 12-13C, promoting widespread upper 70s and lower 80s, and even mid 80s in the Genesee Valley. This southwest flow will keep downtown Buffalo a bit cooler. Also depending upon the eventual set up of a stalled frontal boundary draped across the eastern waters of Lake Ontario, a possible northerly component to the wind may keep the southeast shoreline a bit cooler.

Cooler, but still above normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, with around normal temperatures Thursday in the presence of the mid level trough and its associated cooler airmass.



AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Widespread VFR conditions with dry weather and mainly light winds will continue through the entire TAF period.

Canadian high pressure will continue to build over the area this afternoon, keeping dry weather and mainly light breezes intact. This large area of high pressure will then drift across our area through tonight, before slowly settling toward the New England coast by late Friday.

Outlook...

Friday night...VFR.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with some showers likely and an isolated thunderstorm possible.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms.

MARINE
Sprawling Canadian high pressure will continue to build across our region through this evening, before slowly drifting east to eastern New York and western New England tonight. This will provide our region with fair dry weather and light to modest winds through tonight, with local lake breeze circulations continuing on Lake Ontario through late this afternoon that has resulted in winds there turning locally onshore around 10-15 knots with some chop on the nearshore waters. Meanwhile, on Lake Erie northeasterly winds of 10- 15 knots are expected today, resulting in some chop even though conditions will remain below advisory criteria.

On Friday, the surface high will slide east to the New England coastline, with a general easterly to east-northeasterly flow continuing across the lower Great Lakes. On Lake Ontario winds will be more easterly, and could become strong enough to bring some marginal SCA conditions to the southwestern shore of the Lake Friday afternoon.

Flow will then veer south to southeast and strengthen Friday night and Saturday, however the offshore flow is expected to remain below advisory criteria.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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