Friday, July21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Palmyra, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 8:44PM Friday July 21, 2017 6:41 PM EDT (22:41 UTC) Moonrise 2:56AMMoonset 6:05PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 435 Am Edt Fri Jul 21 2017
Today..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Patchy fog early. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Mainly clear in the evening...then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast and increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less building to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west and diminishing to less than 10 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day...then a chance of showers Monday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 70 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201707211515;;585530 FZUS51 KBUF 210835 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 435 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-211515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palmyra, NY
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location: 43.06, -77.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 212158
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
558 pm edt Fri jul 21 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will remain over the area through tonight. A
frontal boundary will then set up in the vicinity of the lower
great lakes this weekend, bringing periods of unsettled weather
and near normal temperatures through Monday. Then high pressure
will build across the region during the middle of next week which
will provide several days of pleasant weather.

Near term through Saturday
Weak surface high pressure will influence our weather through
tonight, with generally dry weather. There is a slight chance of
a shower with a shortwave across the saint lawrence valley late
this afternoon. Otherwise, model consensus keeps the region dry
through daybreak Saturday morning.

High clouds will gradually spread into the region from the west this
evening , with this cloud cover thickening late in the night.

Despite light winds, this will limit radiational cooling somewhat
tonight, especially late. Even so, expect temperatures to drop off
quickly this evening, with some patchy valley fog possible in the
southern tier. Temperatures late this afternoon will generally range
from around 80 to the mid 80s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s
to mid 60s with the coolest readings across the interior valleys of
the southern tier and north country.

For Saturday, model guidance has come into better agreement with
most guidance tracking a convective complex across or south of the
western southern tier. Mainly light showers may clip areas
north of this, but chances of any rain diminish to the north. It
is important to note that our area, if anything, will be on the
northern fringe of that system which has a minimal risk for
severe weather. Following this, SPC has shifted the slight risk
area to the ny pa state line. Given uncertainty in the track,
there is still a marginal risk for gusty winds and heavy rain
across the southern tier, but this risk appears diminished based
on latest guidance. Otherwise, expect near normal temperatures
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Short term Saturday night through Monday night
The bulk of the unsettled weather during this period looks to occur
later Sunday into Monday where 12z model guidance consensus shows at
least one area of low pressure with a slow moving frontal boundary
crossing our region as a sharp mid-level trough shifts over the
eastern great lakes. This will all come together to produce a few
periods of showers and thunderstorms to close out the weekend and
start the new work week. Have cut back pops on Saturday night as it
appears that high pressure centered near james bay will be ridged
south across lake ontario which should shield much of western ny
from shower and thunderstorm activity overnight. Have left a
low slight chance in play as a surface low shifting just to our
southwest along the slow moving boundary may force a few showers
north across the ny border.

Large scale lift and southerly flow ahead of low pressure forming
over lake erie western ny through Sunday will begin to shift a
surface warm front northeast across western and central ny. Timing
of its position still needs to be refined in mesoscale guidance but
generally ramped up chance pops in the official forecast from
southwest to northeast across the region with likely range pops in
place across wny by late afternoon where newly formed low pressure
should be centered. The most likely period of shower and
thunderstorm activity seems to be centered on Sunday night and
Monday morning as the low shifts east either across northern new
york into new england or across eastern ny then off the coast of
cape cod. By Monday night the consensus of the models shows the low
positioned off the new england coast with high pressure then in the
process of building back across the great lakes along with
developing cool northerly flow. Have tapered pops back as the low
departs leaving dry weather across wny Monday night with just low
chance pops over cny.

There is some concern for potential hazardous weather during this
period. Pwats rising to between 1.5-1.8 inches along the warm front
just ahead of the surface low may bring a risk of heavy downpours
and flooding especially if storms train along any surface
boundaries. There is also a risk for severe winds and maybe some
small hail with any storms that develop in building instability
Sunday and lingering into Sunday evening where GFS forecast bulk
shear to 40kts. Veering vertical wind profiles in forecast soundings
may even bring about another isolated tornado risk. SPC has included
a slight marginal risk area for Sunday-Sunday night in our forecast
area. These potential hazards will also continue to be highlighted
in the hazardous weather outlook.

Temperature-wise, highs in the upper 70s to low 80s Sunday will be
cooler on Monday only topping out in the mid 70s on the backside of
the passing low. Overnight lows will bottom out in the 60s Saturday
night and Sunday night then slip to 50s Monday night with cool
northerly flow.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Things will be quieting down considerably Tuesday, as upper level
ridging moves across the lower great lakes and a broad surface high
moves overhead the forecast area. The quiet weather will persist
through Tuesday night and at least the first half of Wednesday
before the high moves off the new england coast. At that point,
models are in good agreement on a potential round of showers and
thunderstorms crossing the forecast area from west to east Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night, as a prominent shortwave trough
crosses the region. A fairly strong upper level jet will propel the
system off to the east by Thursday morning, while a surface cool
front drops south out of canada. With the back edge of the upper
level trough lingering across the region Thursday afternoon, we may
see a few afternoon showers pop up.

Looking at temperatures, the period will start off on the cool side,
as relatively cool air on the back side of a departing upper level
trough will still be lingering across the region. Tuesday's highs
will be in the low to mid 70s, and a very comfortable mid 70-s at
that, with surface dewpoints in the mid 50s. The combination of high
pressure and mid 50s dewpoints will make for a cool night, with lows
in the low to mid 50s. Temperatures will warm back into the upper
70s to and potentially the lower 80s on Wednesday, with a noticeable
increase in humidity, as warm and moist air advects into the region
on southerly flow ahead of Wednesday evening's system. Cold
advection behind this system will be negligible, though it may feel
just a little drier on Thursday.

Aviation 22z Friday through Wednesday
High pressure will remain across the region through much of the
night with mainlyVFR conditions. The only exception is that
there is a chance for valley fog to develop at jhw. Fog should
be less widespread than last night with high clouds building
across the region which will slow radiational cooling and fog.

On Saturday, a showers and thunderstorms will track along a
stalled frontal boundary with the core of this likely to pass
south of buf-roc around mid-day. Expect mainlyVFR conditions
north of this with MVFR or lower in showers and thunderstorms at
jhw.

Outlook...

Saturday night and Sunday...VFR MVFR with some showers and
thunderstorms.

Monday... MainlyVFR but with a chance of showers.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

Marine
High pressure over the upper great lakes will expand across the
lower great lakes through tonight. This will result in fine
conditons for recreational boating. A frontal boundary is then
expected to stall near the lower great lakes this weekend with
chances of showers and storms becoming a threat, but winds waves
are expected to remain on the light side.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Apffel church
near term... Apffel church
short term... Smith
long term... Wood
aviation... Apffel church
marine... Apffel church


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi42 min NW 9.9 G 12 77°F 1013.2 hPa (-0.3)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 26 mi42 min 79°F 1012.4 hPa (-0.4)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 40 mi52 min W 14 G 16 75°F 73°F2 ft1011.5 hPa (-0.6)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 47 mi42 min W 12 G 16 76°F 1011.7 hPa (-0.7)65°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY24 mi48 minNNW 1010.00 miOvercast83°F62°F49%1012.7 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10SW5W3N3CalmCalmCalmSW3W6W5W3SW4SW5W5W4W56N5NW8NW4N8NW7NW10NW10
1 day agoW8W9W8SW6W4W5W5W3W4SW3SW4SW4SW4SW5W5SW5SW5W4NE17N10E5SW6S9SW11
2 days agoSE3CalmSE3CalmSW3SW3SW3SW3SW4SW4SW6SW6SW5SW7SW7SW7SW6SW10W7W10W11W11W10W10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.