Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Palmyra, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:42PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 4:22 PM EST (21:22 UTC) Moonrise 9:41AMMoonset 7:20PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 940 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Rain showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely in the morning, then scattered snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers Friday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Rain showers likely during the day, then frequent snow showers Saturday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 48 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201711212215;;747944 FZUS51 KBUF 211440 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 940 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-212215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palmyra, NY
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location: 43.06, -77.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 212036
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
336 pm est Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
The brisk southwesterly flow of mild air will continue through early
this evening, before quickly coming to an end late this evening into
the overnight as a strong cold front sweeps through the region. Rain
showers along and ahead of the front will mix with and change to
snow before diminishing early tomorrow morning across western new
york, and by early afternoon across the northcountry. In the wake of
the front, building high pressure will then bring a return to colder
weather for midweek, with just some nuisance-type lake effect snow
showers possible downwind of the lakes at times later Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Expect some snow and rain showers to return for
thanksgiving day northeast of both lakes.

Near term through Wednesday
Heading into this evening, loss of daytime mixing will allow surface
winds to subside some as the Sun sets, although the tight pressure
gradient in place ahead of the front will keep breezy conditions in
place through later this evening. Expect cloud cover to rapidly
thicken and lower as the cold front approaches the area. An area of
lake enhanced rain will develop northeast of lake erie initially out
ahead of the cold front early this evening. The main area of rain
associated with the cold front itself will then merge with lake
enhanced band later this evening and plow from west to east across
the area overnight. As colder air wraps in rapidly on the backside
of the front, rain will change to snow with some minor accumulations
possible, ranging from a coating across the lower terrain, to around
an inch across the higher terrain. Low temperatures by morning will
bottom out in the upper 20s to around freezing across the region.

As colder air continues to pour across the region Wednesday, there
will be a limited lake response early in the day southeast of lake
erie, with just some light nuisance snow showers found across the
western southern tier through the first half of the morning, before
much drier air moves in and inversion heights crash. Off lake
ontario there will be a little more activity east and southeast of
the lake with a bit more available synoptic moisture aiding with
lake enhancement upslope. That said, this will generally be light
with another inch possible by early afternoon across the higher
terrain before this activity falls totally apart by Wednesday
afternoon as drier air and crashing inversion heights move into this
region as well. Winds will be noticeably lighter and out of the
northwest. Temperatures will be some 15-20f degrees colder than
yesterday, with highs generally in the lower to mid 30s.

Short term Wednesday night through Saturday
The axis of a large, elongated surface based ridge will cross our
forecast area Wednesday night. While this will provide our region
with fair dry weather, cirrus streaming in from the west should
temper an otherwise favorable environment for radiational cooling.

The only thing we will have to watch for will be some very minor
lake snow showers that could develop northeast of the lakes towards
daybreak. A low cap of about 5k ft will severely limit any real
development though.

On thanksgiving, the surface high will push east and weak mid-level
wave will cross the forecast area ahead of a stronger shortwave
moving over the upper great lakes. The combination of weak synoptic
lift with height falls aloft, will help spawn a few nuisance lake
enhanced showers northeast of lakes erie and ontario. This will
start as either lake cloud cover or light precipitation Thursday
morning, but pick up some into Thursday afternoon and evening as the
better moisture and ascent arrives ahead of the shortwave. This will
result in some light rain and snow showers near niagara falls and
buffalo, as well as near watertown. As the shortwave passes, the
flow will turn more westerly, with some upslope and lake enhancement
over the tug hill. Less than an inch, if any, snow accumulation is
expected NE of lake erie, meanwhile, 1 to 3 inches of snow are
possible east of lake ontario, with the highest amounts over the tug
hill.

As a flat shortwave ridge pushes across the lower great lakes on
Friday, it will force the remnants of the stalled frontal boundary
back into canada. This will also establish another brief warm up,
as a strengthening south-southwest flow ahead of an approaching
pacific based cold front will boost h85 temps from the minus single
digits c to around 5c. Our temperatures will respond by climbing
into the 40s in most areas by Friday afternoon. The moderating
temperatures will be accompanied by at least partial sunshine.

Conditions will then deteriorate somewhat Friday night, as a
vigorous shortwave will push the first of two frontal boundaries
across our region. The first one, a pacific based cold front,
will push through our region late Friday night. This feature should
generate some mixed rain and snow showers, mainly over the western
counties after midnight.

Saturday will be somewhat unsettled across our region, but it will
be far from a wash out. In fact, there may be more hours of pcpn
free weather than those with mixed rain and snow showers. The
pacific based cool front will pass to our east during the morning,
and this should leave a lull in the synoptic forcing for the
afternoon. As the cold air behind the first front deepens though,
any residual rain showers should mix with change to wet snow showers.

Long term Saturday night through Tuesday
While temperatures will actually be on the plus side of normal to
start this period, a digging longwave trough over the great lakes
will unlock the door for a chunk of very cold air to settle over us
for Sunday and Monday. As one would expect for this time of year,
the plunging temperatures will support some lake snows as well. This
will likely present some problems for holiday travelers at the end
of the weekend. More on this in a moment.

A fairly strong arctic cold front will then plow across the lower
great lakes Saturday night. This will generate scattered snow showers
throughout our region, with lake snows becoming organized southeast
of the lakes after midnight. The stage will then be set for what
could be a miserable day for travel on Sunday.

Medium range ensembles are in good agreement that a cold cyclonic
northerly flow will be in place over our region on Sunday, while
fairly deep synoptic moisture will persist. Given that h85 temps are
forecast to be in the vcnty of -12 to -15c and that there should be
some added lift from the northerly upslope flow, it is likely that
fairly steady snow will be found southeast of both lakes, including
along the bulk of the new york state thruway. This could make travel
a little more challenging for those heading home Sunday and Sunday
night. Stay tuned.

On Monday, a broad ridge over the mid west and upper great lakes
will begin to push across the lower great lakes. The ensuing warm
advection and subsequent lowering subsidence inversion will bring an
end to the accumulating, problematic lake snows southeast of both
lakes, while fair weather will be found elsewhere.

Aviation 21z Tuesday through Sunday
WidespreadVFR conditions will continue right through early this
evening, with just some patchy thin high cirrus for the most part.

Stronger winds will subside this evening as we lose daytime mixing
toward sunset, however a tight pressure gradient out ahead of the
approaching cold front will keep breezy conditions in place through
this evening.

Later this evening, rain showers associated with the cold front will
press from west to east across the area, eventually changing over to
snow showers late tonight as colder air wraps in on the back side of
the front. Mainly MVFR CIGS vsbys are expected across the lower
terrain, with some ifr conditions possible across the higher terrain
areas.

Wednesday, expect mainly MVFR conditions across the western new york
lake plains in the morning, with mainly MVFR (localized ifr)
ceilings across the higher terrain of the western southern tier.

Expect MVFR (localized ifr) ceilings to hang in through at least the
end of the TAF period across the eastern lake ontario region with
just some nuisance snow showers slowly diminishing by early
afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday... MainlyVFR across western new york lake plains, with
MVFR localized ifr in scattered snow showers southeast of the lakes.

Thursday... MainlyVFR, with a chance of localized MVFR in scattered
snow showers north-northeast of the lakes.

Thursday night... A chance of snow showers MVFR across the north
country, otherwise mainlyVFR.

Friday... MainlyVFR.

Saturday...VFR MVFR with rain showers likely.

Sunday... Mainly MVFR, with chance of localized ifr in lake effect
snow showers southeast of the lakes.

Marine
Brisk southwesterlies will continue into early this evening ahead of
an approaching cold front, before veering to northwesterly tonight
following the frontal passage, then slowly diminishing from west to
east during Wednesday as high pressure builds across the region.

This will keep small craft advisories in place as outlined below.

A bit further down the road, it appears like that another round of
small craft advisories will be needed again for Thursday afternoon
and night as the pressure gradient tightens around a cold front
passing by just to our north.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Wind advisory until 5 pm est this afternoon for nyz001-010.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for lez020.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est Wednesday for lez040-
041.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for
loz030.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Wednesday for
loz042>045.

Synopsis... Jm
near term... Jm
short term... Church rsh
long term... Rsh
aviation... Jm
marine... Jm jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi82 min WSW 13 G 25 58°F 1008.5 hPa (+0.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 26 mi52 min 57°F 1007.7 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 40 mi92 min SW 16 G 19 52°F 49°F3 ft1006.7 hPa (-0.0)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 47 mi52 min S 9.9 G 13 55°F 1007.9 hPa23°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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G34
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NW25
G34

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY24 mi28 minSW 1310.00 miPartly Cloudy55°F28°F36%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6S7SW8SW9SW12SW8SW11
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1 day agoW10W9W9NW9NW15
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W11W10W6W13
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W11W14W16
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W12SW9W9SW5W16
G22
2 days agoSE5SE6SE9SE7SE6E5SE4S7SW7SW11NW21
G27
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NW10
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G25
W12W11
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NW10W7NW10NW8
G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.