Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Deerfield, WI
March 28, 2024 3:18 PM CDT (20:18 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:42 AM Sunset 7:20 PM Moonrise 11:08 PM Moonset 8:00 AM |
LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 306 Pm Cdt Thu Mar 28 2024
Through early evening - West wind 5 to 15 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight - West wind 5 to 10 knots veering northwest late in the evening, then rising to 10 to 15 knots after midnight easing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday - Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots veering southeast late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night - East wind 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Chance of rain through around midnight, then rain and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Saturday - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots backing northwest in the afternoon. Rain likely in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
wave heights are for ice free areas.
wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ600
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
  (hide/show)  HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KMKX 282002 AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 302 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Friday temperatures will be on the warm side but strong cooling from the lake is expected due largely to the east to southeast winds.
- Above normal temperatures may return this weekend, along with a more active weather pattern into early next week. A few thunderstorms may occur Friday night into Saturday.
- We are watching another system expected for early to the middle of next week that may bring rain to most of southern Wisconsin.
SHORT TERM
Issued 300 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Tonight through Friday night:
High pressure over the region will gradually weaken and slide east tonight while the ridge aloft starts to break down during the day Friday as the next system begins to push in. During the day Friday the conditions look dry as the high pressure and UL ridge stick around just long enough but we will see the upper level clouds associated with the next system start to roll in during the day.
In addition, the system pushing in will bring southeast winds across the area and while that will lead to warm temps towards the low 50s for much of the CWA the easterly component of the winds will cause significant temperature differences near the lake and just inland due to the cooler lake temps.
By Friday evening we will finally start to see the forcing from the upper level weak shortwave, the mid level WAA (nose of LLJ)
and moisture push in. This will allow for at the very least rain showers (80-90%). The strong deformation around 850mb to 500mb will allow for a decent period of transient fgen to locally increase rain rates for a period overnight. While instability looks nearly absent in models we cant rule out some elevated instability based on soundings bringing some rumbles of thunder (10-20%) though nothing strong would be expected.
It should be noted that several models show mid level moisture potentially becoming an area of uncertainty with respect to this system. There appears to be some issues with drier air on the north side of the low which could lead to less precip in some areas. Overall the models do have some backfill of moisture in the mid levels that would ease concerns regarding this dry air and the CAMs certainly show more scattered to widespread showers but there is a least a good chance (50%) that some areas see less precip overall due to this dry air, primarily for areas in the western parts of the CWA
Overall this system will be a quick hitter with most if not all of the rain occurring Friday evening/night with rain ending by early Saturday morning.
Kuroski
LONG TERM
Issued 300 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Saturday through Thursday:
Rain will clear out by early Saturday morning leaving Saturday to be fairly warm and dry, though remaining cloudy due to the exiting system from Friday and the incoming system for Sunday.
The upper levels Saturday will become zonal which will set up Sunday for the shortwave activity that will slide in.
There is certainly some uncertainty on the when precip will begin with some models suggesting it may not start until Monday.
This is based upon uncertainty in where the shortwave within the zonal pattern will set up in addition to whether forcing will be enough. Given decent moisture within the column and some mid level WAA we would expect at least some precip chances (~40%) though the better chances certainly now seem further south. However models do suggest better precip chances into Monday and Monday evening/night though there remains uncertainty as to when exactly the upper low and associated surface low will push through and where they will track. While precip remains very likely Monday/Monday night (95+%) due to the upper low and surface low racking through with plenty of moisture and forcing throughout the column, the timing is still uncertain because it is not likely to rain all day and night but we do know that the best timeframe is Monday/Monday night.
In addition to this there is a chance (~20%) for some thunder with the system coming through Monday or Monday night with slight potential (20%) for for some mixy precip on the backend with the cooler temps sliding in behind the system though no accumulations would be expected.
Precip chances will largely end by Wednesday with only lingering chances Tuesday. However by the end of next week we will likely see another warm up with temperatures perhaps reaching the 60s Thursday but especially for Friday/Saturday.
Kuroski
AVIATION
Issued 300 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Largely clear skies expected for the remainder of today with VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Into Friday while clouds will be moving in ahead of the next system all clouds will be VFR until likely Friday evening/night when lower CIGS become more likely with rain and perhaps even some thunder.
Winds will remain from the west through the rest of today with some breezy gusts though overnight winds will weaken and turn southeast to east into Friday.
Kuroski
MARINE
Issued 300 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
High pressure will continue to build into the upper Great Lakes Region tonight but likely will not be over the region until Friday. West to southwest gusts to 20 knots are expected to persist over the lake into the early evening with winds easing overnight as the high pressure center moves toward Lake Michigan. Light and variable winds will then persist over Lake Michigan into Friday, before winds turn southeasterly ahead of approaching low pressure Friday evening. Winds will then turn easterly and northerly with time as the low pressure passes south of the lake on Saturday. Next potential period to watch for Small Craft and Gale potential will be early next week with a stronger system expected to push through.
Kuroski
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 302 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Friday temperatures will be on the warm side but strong cooling from the lake is expected due largely to the east to southeast winds.
- Above normal temperatures may return this weekend, along with a more active weather pattern into early next week. A few thunderstorms may occur Friday night into Saturday.
- We are watching another system expected for early to the middle of next week that may bring rain to most of southern Wisconsin.
SHORT TERM
Issued 300 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Tonight through Friday night:
High pressure over the region will gradually weaken and slide east tonight while the ridge aloft starts to break down during the day Friday as the next system begins to push in. During the day Friday the conditions look dry as the high pressure and UL ridge stick around just long enough but we will see the upper level clouds associated with the next system start to roll in during the day.
In addition, the system pushing in will bring southeast winds across the area and while that will lead to warm temps towards the low 50s for much of the CWA the easterly component of the winds will cause significant temperature differences near the lake and just inland due to the cooler lake temps.
By Friday evening we will finally start to see the forcing from the upper level weak shortwave, the mid level WAA (nose of LLJ)
and moisture push in. This will allow for at the very least rain showers (80-90%). The strong deformation around 850mb to 500mb will allow for a decent period of transient fgen to locally increase rain rates for a period overnight. While instability looks nearly absent in models we cant rule out some elevated instability based on soundings bringing some rumbles of thunder (10-20%) though nothing strong would be expected.
It should be noted that several models show mid level moisture potentially becoming an area of uncertainty with respect to this system. There appears to be some issues with drier air on the north side of the low which could lead to less precip in some areas. Overall the models do have some backfill of moisture in the mid levels that would ease concerns regarding this dry air and the CAMs certainly show more scattered to widespread showers but there is a least a good chance (50%) that some areas see less precip overall due to this dry air, primarily for areas in the western parts of the CWA
Overall this system will be a quick hitter with most if not all of the rain occurring Friday evening/night with rain ending by early Saturday morning.
Kuroski
LONG TERM
Issued 300 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Saturday through Thursday:
Rain will clear out by early Saturday morning leaving Saturday to be fairly warm and dry, though remaining cloudy due to the exiting system from Friday and the incoming system for Sunday.
The upper levels Saturday will become zonal which will set up Sunday for the shortwave activity that will slide in.
There is certainly some uncertainty on the when precip will begin with some models suggesting it may not start until Monday.
This is based upon uncertainty in where the shortwave within the zonal pattern will set up in addition to whether forcing will be enough. Given decent moisture within the column and some mid level WAA we would expect at least some precip chances (~40%) though the better chances certainly now seem further south. However models do suggest better precip chances into Monday and Monday evening/night though there remains uncertainty as to when exactly the upper low and associated surface low will push through and where they will track. While precip remains very likely Monday/Monday night (95+%) due to the upper low and surface low racking through with plenty of moisture and forcing throughout the column, the timing is still uncertain because it is not likely to rain all day and night but we do know that the best timeframe is Monday/Monday night.
In addition to this there is a chance (~20%) for some thunder with the system coming through Monday or Monday night with slight potential (20%) for for some mixy precip on the backend with the cooler temps sliding in behind the system though no accumulations would be expected.
Precip chances will largely end by Wednesday with only lingering chances Tuesday. However by the end of next week we will likely see another warm up with temperatures perhaps reaching the 60s Thursday but especially for Friday/Saturday.
Kuroski
AVIATION
Issued 300 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Largely clear skies expected for the remainder of today with VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Into Friday while clouds will be moving in ahead of the next system all clouds will be VFR until likely Friday evening/night when lower CIGS become more likely with rain and perhaps even some thunder.
Winds will remain from the west through the rest of today with some breezy gusts though overnight winds will weaken and turn southeast to east into Friday.
Kuroski
MARINE
Issued 300 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
High pressure will continue to build into the upper Great Lakes Region tonight but likely will not be over the region until Friday. West to southwest gusts to 20 knots are expected to persist over the lake into the early evening with winds easing overnight as the high pressure center moves toward Lake Michigan. Light and variable winds will then persist over Lake Michigan into Friday, before winds turn southeasterly ahead of approaching low pressure Friday evening. Winds will then turn easterly and northerly with time as the low pressure passes south of the lake on Saturday. Next potential period to watch for Small Craft and Gale potential will be early next week with a stronger system expected to push through.
Kuroski
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KRYV WATERTOWN MUNI,WI | 16 sm | 23 min | W 10G14 | 10 sm | Clear | 41°F | 25°F | 52% | 30.03 | |
KMSN DANE COUNTY RGNLTRUAX FIELD,WI | 19 sm | 25 min | WNW 07G19 | 10 sm | Clear | 41°F | 14°F | 33% | 30.03 |
Milwaukee, WI,
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