Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kittery, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 6:56PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 4:54 AM EDT (08:54 UTC) Moonrise 6:33PMMoonset 6:53AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 254 Am Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft after midnight. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. A chance of snow showers. A chance of rain in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of snow showers.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
ANZ100 254 Am Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A southwest flow begins as high pressure moves east today. A cold front approaches from the west on Thursday before stalling. Low pressure will track north along the front near new england on Friday, before slowly exiting through the canadian maritimes this weekend. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kittery, ME
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location: 43.08, -70.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 200800
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
400 am edt Wed mar 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure shifting east today allows a southwest wind to
bring in some warmer weather. A cold front will approach from
the northwest on Thursday, but it will stall just as it arrives
in northern new england. Low pressure moving up from the
carolinas will track north to the gulf of maine on Friday,
spreading rain across new hampshire and maine, with snow in the
higher terrain. While the low moves off to the northeast on
Saturday, some lingering showers will still be possible as
colder air moves into the area.

Near term today
High pressure at the surface will slowly exit over the waters
today. This will allow for a southwesterly flow to develop. Warm
air advection and sunshine will allow for temperatures to climb
to above normal levels for this time of the year. Readings will
reach the 40s in most areas outside the mountains with
southernmost new hampshire topping out near 50s degrees. An
onshore will will develop along the beaches, potentially
dropping there temperatures during the afternoon hours.

Short term tonight
High cloudiness spills northward ahead of the main area of
developing low pressure near the mid atlantic region. This will
prevent temperatures from cooling significantly as has been the
case the last few nights. However, we still expect temperatures
to drop through the 20s. All eyes then shift towards the long
term portion of the forecast as cyclogenesis occurs along the
coastline to our south.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Multiple different waves interacting with each other in our neck
of the woods late this week have led to a tricky and rather
changeable forecast. The first wave we picked up on was the one
coming in from the northwest out of canada, dragging a cold
front toward the area. Well now it looks like this wave is a bit
slower, and this cold front will stall just as it's arriving in
our area. Meanwhile, another wave in the southern plains this
morning will join forces with a wave dropping southeast out of
the great lakes. Together, they will cause cyclogenesis over
north carolina and virginia on Thursday with the resulting low
tracking north toward new england and the slowly approaching
cold front. We are finally narrowing in on a low track over
cape cod and into the gulf of maine for Friday.

What all this means for our weather is that first of all,
Thursday should be mostly dry and rather warm as we stay on the
warm side of the front. However, we see an increasing easterly
flow developing north of the deepening approaching low and by
evening we could see precipitation beginning and spreading north
across the forecast area by morning Friday. With this low
tracking toward us on the warm side of the cold front, there's
not a whole lot of cold air to work with. Thus we expect most of
this precipitation will fall as rain. However, the easterly low
level flow does promote cold air damming, and if temperatures
can drop down to freezing Friday morning we could see some light
icing in the southeast foothills. Meanwhile, further northwest
in the higher terrain we should have just enough cold air for
snow. Accumulations could be significant on the hills and
mountains, while the valley floors may warm to rain. Current
forecast snow amounts would suggest a general 3 to 6 inch
snowfall in the northernmost zones with significant
topographical differences. Toward the coast it is unlikely we
get snow at all.

Friday night the low begins to move north (although the ecmwf
model stalls it right over the maine coast for about 12 hours)
with some wrap around precipitation continuing primarily in the
mountains. Colder air will be pouring in behind the low, so
expect areas that were rain to begin changing to snow with light
accumulations possible even toward the coast. Showery weather
could continue into Saturday especially if the upper low lingers
overhead during peak daytime heating. With temperatures mostly
in the 30s, it should be snow showers if it happens.

High pressure crosses the area Sunday with the next cold front
possibly arriving Monday. Models are not in very good agreement
on this front, though. GFS would like to bring more
precipitation to the area as the front moves through, though
think this is likely overdone and more likely just low clouds.

Ecmwf is quicker with the front and keeps it dry.

Aviation 07z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term...VFR conditions with high level moisture expected
tonight.

Long term... Should see lowering ceilings during the
afternoon evening on Thursday with precipitation moving in from
southwest to northeast. Expect ifr or lifr conditions by Friday
morning and lasting through much of the day Friday.

Precipitation will likely be rain for most of the TAF locations
in our area with higher elevations seeing some snow. The low is
slow to move out Friday night into Saturday so we could see MVFR
conditions lingering even as we switch to a northwest flow
regime (favoring lower ceilings in the mountains and improving
conditions toward the coast). Should finally goVFR all areas on
Sunday.

Marine
Short term... Winds increase out of the southwest today and
tonight, but winds will mostly remain below SCA thresholds.

Long term... Low pressure moving north into the gulf of maine on
Friday will bring a southeast wind turning to the east as the
low approaches. Then we see a shift to west winds as the low
moves by Friday evening. It's this west wind that will end up
being the strongest. Current forecast keeps this just below gale
force, but cannot rule out some gale force gusts especially on
Saturday.

Tides coastal flooding
We are entering a period of high astronomical tides later this
week, just as low pressure will be moving into the gulf of
maine. There are currently 3 tides worth watching: Thursday
midday, Thursday night, and Friday afternoon. Each tide
surpasses 11 feet at portland not including any surge.

For Thursday we will be seeing a south to southeast wind which
could bring in a minor surge and some building wave heights.

Beach erosion and splashover will be a possibility here.

For midnight Thursday night we should see a bit more of a surge
building up on an easterly wind with wave heights increasing as
well. Minor coastal flooding is possible here.

For Friday afternoon the low will be somewhere near the maine
coastline, though there are still some model differences in
track and timing. With multiple tides in an onshore flow, the
low atmospheric pressure expected, and the majority of models
still favoring an onshore wind for this tide, expect that we
will still have at least a residual surge to deal with here.

This could perhaps be the most significant tide and the most
likely to see minor coastal flooding.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Cannon
short term... Cannon
long term... Kimble


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 4 mi70 min Calm 20°F 1030 hPa15°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 10 mi55 min N 5.1 G 5.1 33°F 1029 hPa (-0.3)18°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 18 mi111 min NNW 3.9 G 3.9 34°F 38°F1 ft1029.5 hPa
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 19 mi37 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 22°F 37°F1029.5 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 21 mi55 min NW 2.9 23°F 8°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 36 mi47 min 39°F1 ft
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 40 mi111 min W 3.9 G 3.9 36°F 38°F1 ft1028.7 hPa
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 45 mi65 min NW 1.9 G 3.9 32°F 37°F1 ft1029.6 hPa (+0.4)16°F
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 48 mi43 min 26°F 36°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH4 mi2 hrsN 010.00 miFair25°F13°F61%1029.4 hPa
Rochester - Skyhaven Airport, NH16 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair22°F10°F60%1028.7 hPa
Sanford, Sanford Regional Airport, ME22 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair14°F12°F92%1029.8 hPa

Wind History from PSM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Portsmouth, Portsmouth Harbor, New Hampshire
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Portsmouth
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Wed -- 05:13 AM EDT     -0.87 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:34 AM EDT     9.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:45 PM EDT     -1.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.57.14.72.10.1-0.8-0.513.46.18.39.59.68.46.13.30.7-1-1.3-0.41.74.36.98.6

Tide / Current Tables for Portsmouth Harbor Entrance, New Hampshire Current
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Portsmouth Harbor Entrance
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Wed -- 12:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:24 AM EDT     -2.21 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:05 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:16 AM EDT     1.64 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:57 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:50 PM EDT     -2.46 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:35 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Wed -- 09:47 PM EDT     1.68 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.6-0.4-1.6-2.2-2.1-1.8-1.2-0.111.61.51.20.8-0.1-1.3-2.2-2.4-2.2-1.7-0.70.51.51.71.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.