Saturday, December16, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Madison, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 4:25PM Saturday December 16, 2017 12:51 PM CST (18:51 UTC) Moonrise 6:38AMMoonset 4:43PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 1105 Am Cst Sat Dec 16 2017
Rest of today..East wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots late in the morning and early afternoon. Cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..East wind 10 to 15 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..East wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. Waves around 1 foot. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ644 Expires:201712162300;;984813 FZUS53 KMKX 161705 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1105 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-162300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madison, WI
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location: 43.09, -89.43     debug

Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 161759 aab
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1159 am cst Sat dec 16 2017

There looks to be patchy freezing fog across areas away from lake
michigan later tonight into the middle morning hours Sunday. Low
stratus clouds under inversion should help trap moisture, with
rather light easterly winds inland. Closer to the lake, the winds
will be a little stronger, and should limit any freezing fog
potential there.

The freezing fog may cause slippery spots on roads later tonight
into Sunday morning, especially in low lying areas. Not confident
enough for a freezing fog advisory at this time, but will need to
be watched by later shifts.


Aviation(18z tafs)
Main concern is potential for light freezing fog on runways later
tonight into the middle morning hours Sunday away from the lake.

Patchy freezing fog is anticipated, which may cause slick spots on
runways. Visibility values should generally be in the 3 to 6 mile
range in this area.

Area of ifr stratus clouds should gradually shift southward this
afternoon and early this evening. These clouds should then hang
around later tonight into Sunday, remaining in the 500 to 800 foot

Light and variable winds in southern portions of the area will
become easterly this evening. Winds will remain easterly elsewhere
this afternoon. The easterly winds linger tonight into Sunday
morning, becoming light as low pressure moves northeast into the
area Sunday afternoon.


Prev discussion (issued 1002 am cst Sat dec 16 2017)

the low stratus deck should remain over the northern portions of
the area this afternoon, before gradually spreading southward
tonight. This is mainly north of a stalled frontal boundary, which
will slide southward tonight.

Areas south of the front should see partly to mostly sunny skies
into this afternoon. This should allow for highs to warm into the
upper 30s to lower 40s. Areas in the low cloud deck should remain
in the upper 20s to lower mid 30s for highs this afternoon.

There is some potential for freezing fog or drizzle overnight into
early Sunday morning. Still evaluating this potential, as it may
remain more of a low stratus deck during this period. There could
be some slick spots on roads if the freezing fog or drizzle


easterly winds of 10 to 20 knots north of the stalled front will
linger this afternoon, mainly north of wind point. This should
bring increasing waves into the 2 to 4 foot range this afternoon.

These easterly winds will then develop south of wind point this
evening and linger overnight. Thus, the waves will increase to 2
to 4 feet in this area as well. No small craft advisory is
anticipated at this time into tonight, as most gusts should
remain around 20 knots, with waves at or below 4 feet.

prev discussion... (issued 526 am cst Sat dec 16 2017)

light snow showers are beginning to taper off across the far
northeastern corner of the cwa. This trend will continue, with
precip ending by mid morning at the latest.

Aviation(12z tafs)...

light easterly winds are expected today and tonight across the
area. Ceilings will initially beVFR this morning, but will lower
as the day GOES on as moisture increases. MVFR is expected by
afternoon or evening, then ifr is expected overnight for most

Prev discussion... (issued 205 am cst Sat dec 16 2017)

early this morning through tonight... Forecast confidence is
medium to high...

a band of light snow continues across the northeastern corner of
the forecast area early this morning. This snow remains very
light, with just minor additional accumulations expected through

As the precipitation ends this morning, a very brief period of
freezing drizzle is possible, at least in pockets across the fond
du lac and sheboygan areas as cloud ice begins to dissipate.

Right now, it doesn't look like any freezing drizzle would be
widespread enough to cause significant impacts, but it'll be
something to keep an eye on this morning.

A few peeks of Sun will be possible in counties adjacent to the
illinois state line today, but everywhere to the north will remain
cloudy. Temperatures will reflect the range in sunshine, with
readings near 40 along the state line, to just the low to mid 30s
across the highway 23 corridor.

Skies will remain overcast tonight, with temperatures falling back
into the 20s area-wide.

Sunday and Sunday night - confidence... Medium
broad mid level wave passes to our south. Surface low proggd to
near or into SRN wi midday into the afternoon. Another mild day
though cloud cover expected to be stubborn. Models trending precip
to our south and blended guidance just clips our far southeast.

Surface trough passes with nearly neutral or even positive thermal
advection. Any clearing Sunday night could set up a fog scenario
though llvl moisture for now is keeping the stratus in check with
progd MOS surface vsbys not reflective of fog at this time.

Monday through Tuesday night - confidence... Medium
mild west southwest flow will maintain mild conditions into at
least early Tuesday. A cold front will pass Monday night though
and start to pull in some cooler air as Tuesday wears along. The
gfs collapses the 925 thermal pattern a bit more quickly during
the day than the ecmwf. It will be on the brisk side as well with
a tight gradient in the wake of the cold front. High pressure
along with a chillier airmass takes hold for Tuesday night with
high pressure nudging closer.

Wednesday - confidence... Medium
the high and cold airmass lingers into early before a developing
waa regime takes hold. The progs are showing the bulk of this lift
would be focused across northern central wi though our northern
cwa could end up being on the southern fringe. So may have to
consider some pops as we draw closer but for now blended guidance
is keeping this north of our area so will leave it dry for now.

Thursday and Friday - confidence... Medium
progs continue to show an unsettled period with surface 850 low
to our west on Thursday morning and then slowly shifting east
along a rather tight baroclinic zone. Influence of a milder
airmass out ahead of the low at least into the morning. Colder air
starts to arrive Thursday afternoon with cold advection
continuing into Friday in blustery fashion. The ECMWF and gem have
a more interesting surface low evolution and more favorable track
for decent snows than does the gfs. Pops are on the high side and
best consensus on the window for steadiest heaviest snowfall
being Thursday night. The northern and western CWA could end up
seeing a longer period of snow being in the colder airmass
longest. Potential there for several inches of accumulation cwa
wide from this system.

Marine... Easterly flow will continue across the nearshore waters
today and tonight. Waves will approach small craft advisory levels
(4 ft) at times, but right now are expected to remain just below
at 2-3 ft.

Winds will become easterly again Sunday night, with waves
decreasing in response.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Wood
today tonight and aviation marine... Boxell
Sunday through Friday... Collar

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 82 mi61 min ENE 15 G 16 36°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 85 mi71 min E 12 G 15 33°F 1013.9 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 93 mi51 min E 5.1 G 6 37°F 1011.9 hPa (+0.0)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Middleton Muni - Morey Field, WI6 mi76 minESE 610.00 miFair40°F25°F55%1011.5 hPa
Madison, Dane County Regional-Truax Field, WI6 mi58 minE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy38°F27°F65%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from C29 (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW13W10
1 day agoN3W6NW6NW3CalmSW3SW3SW3SW5SW6SW7SW7W9W10
2 days agoNW11NW15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.