Thursday, July20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mayfield, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 8:31PM Thursday July 20, 2017 10:30 PM EDT (02:30 UTC) Moonrise 2:50AMMoonset 5:48PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mayfield, NY
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location: 43.1, -74.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 210204
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1004 pm edt Thu jul 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will build eastward from the great lakes Friday into
Saturday with dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures.

The next chance of rain arrives Saturday night into Sunday, as a
frontal boundary approaches from the west.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
As of 1000 pm edt... Line of convection has cleared the southern
portions of the region. In its wake appears to be a good area
of subsidence as skies were clear across central and western
mohawk valley and adirondack region. However, experimental
goes-16 fog enhancement does indicate some stratus from the
berks, mid-hudson valley into the schoharie valley. So with this
update, dry forecast along with a definite cloud sky grids per
goes-16 experiential data. Remainder of the overnight, expected
some patchy fog, especially for areas that see rainfall during
the early evening and any substantial clearing overnight. Low
temps will mainly be in the lower to mid 60s, with some upper
50s in the adirondacks and southern green mountains.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Saturday night
Tranquil, but warm conditions expected Friday as a ridge of
surface high pressure extends east from the great lakes.

Westerly flow will lead to continued above normal temperatures
in the 85-90 range for valley locations, although humidity
levels should be lower than Thursday and a persistent 10-15 mph
breeze will be make it feel more comfortable. High pressure will
move overhead Friday night with continued dry conditions and
seasonable temperatures.

Models have come into somewhat better agreement, especially
indicating dry conditions persisting through Saturday, delaying
the approach of a frontal boundary from the great lakes and ohio
valley region. Even the previously faster NAM has delayed onset
of showers until just after dark Saturday. So, it appears we
will have two consecutive dry days Friday and Saturday. Will
mention warmer temperatures for Saturday as well compared to
previous forecasts due to delayed onset of showers and more
sunshine during the first half of the day.

Chances for showers will increase Saturday night, as the
boundary approaches from the west. However, models differ with
the placement of this feature, which will have implications for
where more persistent showers eventually set up. Will mention
chance pops for now across the entire area, with time to fine-
tune as guidance comes into better focus with the position of
the boundary over the next day or so.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
An unsettled pattern is expected for the long term with many
uncertainties in play.

We start off with a 1010mb canadian high situation over the
northeast and a system in the southern great lakes advancing
eastward. Each model suite for the past few days has
consistently shown its associated warm front edging close to the
southern tier of our CWA in the Saturday night - Sunday time
frame. However, the main forecast challenge here is just how far
north its thermal gradient extends which will impact two
things... Which of our areas receives precipitation and how much.

To matters even more challenging, guidance continues to
indicate a weak shortwave riding along the stalled boundary
during this time, bringing the potential for a period of rain to
those areas near the boundary. At this time, most of the
guidance continues to show the warm front stalling near long
island nyc coastal ct meaning our far southern tier counties
have the highest probabilities of receiving precipitation. Thus,
have reflected that in the latest update giving high chance
pops to ulster dutchess litchfield counties. It is important to
note that in these situations, if the front stalls a few miles
north or south of where guidance indicates, that can have large
impacts on which area see precip and how much.

After the weak shortwave exits sometime Sunday, we could see a
dry break before our attention turns to a stronger positively
trough over the great lakes which is expected to swing into the
northeast for Sunday night Monday. This system looks to bring an
increasing threat for precipitation during the Sunday
night Monday period with the previously discussed warm front
still south of our cwa. Given that our 1010mb high should still
be wedged over new england eastern ny, the precip associated
with the incoming system may struggle to reach our CWA initially
thanks to mid level dry air and subsidence. Eventually, as the
trough becomes neutrally tilted and enters the northeast, more
widespread precipitation is expected from west to east but again
uncertain on exactly when precip begins during the Sunday
night Monday period.

Unsettled conditions linger into Tuesday as the neutrally
titled trough is slow to exit with continued threat for showers.

For now, left chance pops for the entire cwa. Guidance suggests
that the system cuts off at 700mb with a trowal developing as
the system gradually moves through ny and western new england.

There is an associated cool pool aloft so included slight chance
thunder as well for Tuesday. Temperature wise, we should end up
below normal with highs only in the 70s. Could see the
adirondacks struggling to rise out of the 60s and have reflected
that in the newest update.

Once the low exits tues night wed, heights rise and we should
see high pressure lead to drier and slightly warmer weather mid
- week. Another shortwave arrives for the end of the extended
and have increased to slight chance pops for Thursday Friday.

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
Convection impacting kpou this evening with MVFR ifr conditions
with the remainder of the TAF sites holding atVFR. Overnight,
with lighter winds and improving sky coverage, MVFR conditions
are possible as fog forms overnight. Any fog will burn off
after sunrise Friday withVFR conditions then expected.

Generally westerly winds will diminish this evening becoming
light to calm for the overnight. A westerly flow will develop
Friday morning and is expected to become gusty at kgfl, kalb and
kpsf by late morning with gusts into the teens.

Outlook...

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Monday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
Showers and thunderstorms will move across portions of the area
this evening, especially south and east of albany. Then high
pressure will build eastward from the great lakes Friday into
Saturday with dry conditions and slightly above normal
temperatures. The next chance of rain arrives Saturday night
into Sunday, as a frontal boundary approaches from the west.

Relative humidity values will increase to around 90 to 100
percent tonight, dropping to minimum values of 40 to 55 percent
on Friday. Rh will increase to between 90 and 100 percent again
Friday night.

Winds tonight will be westerly around 5 mph or less. Winds on
Friday will become west-northwest and increase to 10 to 15 mph.

Westerly winds will continue Friday night around 5 to 10 mph.

Hydrology
Some showers and thunderstorms will move across parts of the
area this evening, especially south of albany, as an upper level
disturbance moves through the region. Storms are expected to
move relatively quickly, so no flooding is anticipated at this
time, although brief downpours could result in ponding of water
on roads and poor drainage locations.

Dry weather will return Friday through Saturday with high
pressure building in. Then, another bout of wet weather with
additional showers and few thunderstorms expected from Sunday
through early next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Bgm jpv
near term... Bgm jpv
short term... Jpv
long term... Speciale
aviation... Iaa bgm
fire weather... Jpv
hydrology... Jpv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 78 mi60 min 80°F 1011 hPa71°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Schenectady Airport, NY27 mi43 minW 410.00 miFair72°F62°F73%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------CalmSW4SW4----NW8NW8NW9NW10NW10W5--N5--W4
1 day ago------------------CalmCalmCalmCalmW10W8
G16
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2 days ago------------------Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm----NW4----Calm--Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Thu -- 02:47 AM EDT     5.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:44 AM EDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:15 PM EDT     4.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:51 PM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.44.55.25.44.93.72.61.80.9-0-0.30.61.93.13.84.243.22.11.30.6-0.1-0.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:38 AM EDT     5.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:34 AM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:07 PM EDT     4.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:41 PM EDT     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.54.55.15.24.63.42.31.50.6-0.3-0.30.6233.74.13.82.91.810.3-0.4-0.60.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.