Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Utica, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 4:33PM Monday November 20, 2017 1:03 AM EST (06:03 UTC) Moonrise 8:41AMMoonset 6:26PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 935 Pm Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely in the evening, then a chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Rain showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots diminishing to less than 10 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers Thursday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers Friday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
LOZ045 Expires:201711201015;;674309 FZUS51 KBUF 200235 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 935 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-201015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Utica, NY
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location: 43.1, -75.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 200556
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1256 am est Mon nov 20 2017

Synopsis
Accumulating lake effect snow will continue in north central
new york overnight, shifting mainly north of the new york
thruway by mid morning. However, at least scattered snow showers
and flurries can be expected across the rest of central new
york and even northeast pennsylvania this morning. Milder
temperatures and dry weather are expected into Tuesday.

Near term through today
940 pm update... Lake effect band is trying to organize over the
warning area. Still rather cellular in appearance so with
marginal temps, accumulations are slow to occur. Band is also
lifting northward at this time in response to a short wave
advancing into the area. Mesoscale models show the band
organizing and drifting back south into northern onondaga and
madison behind the wave in somewhat colder and and more well
aligned flow. Made minor adjustments to the temps and winds at
this update. No major changes to the forecast. Previous
discussion continues below.

320 pm update...

main concerns in the near term remain focused around the
accumulating lake effect snow across onondaga, madison and oneida
counties tonight through Monday morning and the potential
for scattered brief snow squalls this evening over the rest of
the area.

The winter storm watch for les has been upgraded to a lake effect
snow warning from 7 pm this evening until 1 pm Monday.

Confidence has increased that there will be a period of heavy snow
along an enhanced lake effect band this evening into tonight. This
band will be capable of producing heavy snowfall rates of 1-2 inches
per hour. Prior to the development of this heavy snow band,
scattered light to moderate snow showers will continue to over
spread the region from the west... Downwind of the great lakes. Cold
air pouring in aloft is enhancing low level lapse rates enough and
picking up moisture from the lakes to produce low-topped weak
convective snow showers this afternoon. The showers will be capable
of dropping a quick half inch of snow in a short period of time,
along with low visibilities. This pattern should continue into the
evening hours before the moisture pools into a main band of lake
effect snow some time after 7 pm.

There still remains some uncertainty regarding the placement of the
main lake effect band among the model guidance... The lake band will
most likely be on the move oscillating and not be confined to one
specific area. This feature will allow the total amount of snow to
be limited to less than 10 inches. However, strong lift and well
saturated conditions in the dgz combined with steep lapse rates in
the mixed layer and at least a minor upstream lake connection should
allow for a corridor of periods of heavy lake effect snow. The
band does not appear to get locked in one location and should
waiver north and south between camden in oneida county and lafayette
in onondaga county. Either way, the threat for heavy snowfall
rates through the night and Monday morning poises a risk for
hazardous travel conditions and potentially near- white out
conditions. Most locations will pick up most of the their snow
in a 2-4 hour period.

Boundary layer winds will back to the W SW through the morning hours
and allow the lake band to shift to the north... Becoming focused
mainly across oneida county after 9am. The overall pattern through
the morning and the rest of the afternoon will be to continue to
lift and weaken the lake band... With a secondary, left over area of
lake erie snow bands dissipating across central ny. Additional snow
amounts will be light, with conditions becoming quiet by the late
afternoon early evening.

Temperatures tonight will be cooling into the 20s for most
locations. Highs on Monday will only reach into the mid to upper
30s.

Short term tonight through Wednesday
320 pm update...

with a surface high centered near the north carolina outer banks,
lake-effect precipitation should come to an end Monday as the
shortwave trough axis slides east of the region. The surface high is
forecast to quickly slide into the atlantic, resulting in dry
conditions Tuesday, as a broad southwesterly flow is seen across the
region. Temperatures Tuesday afternoon should be above seasonal
values for late november, with highs hovering around the 50 degree
mark area-wide.

About the same time, another shortwave trough is expected to amplify
as its axis swings into the upper midwest. This should result in the
occlusion of a storm system over eastern ontario Tuesday. The odds
of seeing precipitation will likely increase over our area Tuesday
night in advance of this system. Surface to 850 mb moisture flux
convergence fields indicate most of the moisture with this
storm system should be pooled along the front. As such, it looks
like the greatest odds of seeing precipitation in our area
between approximately midnight and sunrise Wednesday.

The front is expected to move offshore Wednesday morning. Although
it's not the strongest case for such, the combination of a
northwesterly flow behind the front and continued presence of a
negatively-tilted trough may result in some precipitation generated
by the lake-effect machine across central new york Wednesday. Any
lake-effect precipitation should taper during the afternoon as the
upper trough ejects and surface high pressure heads toward the
eastern half of the country.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
320 pm update...

surface high pressure and a nearly zonal flow is expected to
dominate weather conditions across the region Wednesday night.

Another weak shortwave trough is expected to emanate from an upper
low over hudson bay, then eject across the region Thursday. I think
most of the forecast area will see a dry thanksgiving. However,
there may be enough boundary layer moisture associated with the
passage of the disturbance to generate a bit of lake-effect
precipitation, mainly across areas along and north of the i-90
corridor. Forecast soundings suggest the moisture will be fairly
shallow (and short-lived), which should result in a relatively low-
impact event.

Upper low then moves from the hudson bay into quebec Thursday night
into Friday, bringing a cold front into the upstate. We may see a
little bit of light snow over (mainly) the northern tier of counties
Friday in association with the front. By Friday evening, though, the
boundary layer flow is expected to become southwesterly and set up a
low-level warm advection pattern over the region as the front moves
back north as a warm front.

Forecast confidence wanes from there. Plenty of discrepancies are
evident with regard to timing, evolution, and impacts from the next
system. In general, expect precipitation probabilities to increase
heading into next weekend as the upper-level storm system pushes a
surface low from ontario into quebec. Depending on the upper
trough's amplitude, this could push the associated cold fronts
through the region sometime between Saturday night and Sunday night.

I've stayed fairly close to the model blend during this period given
evolutionary uncertainty.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
Aviation impacts will be mainly due to lake effect snow,
especially the remainder of the night through the morning.

Up to 13z-14z, ksyr and krme will often be under the main lake
ontario band with frequent ifr conditions and below fuel
alternate minimums at times from low visibility and blowing
snow. Scattered snow showers and flurries will be found
elsewhere, though associated restrictions will be brief and
generally MVFR. Lake erie band however will skim by kavp with
ifr vis between 07z-09z. Outside of lake effect,VFR will become
predominant across the region, with 3-5 kft agl ceilings
lifting and scattering out with time. Wnw winds of 9-12 knots,
with gusts of 16-20 knots, will slacken while backing southwest
late afternoon through evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR.

Tuesday night through Wednesday... Restrictions possible in
scattered rain snow showers.

Wednesday night through Friday... MainlyVFR.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... Lake effect snow warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for
nyz009-018-036-037.

Synopsis... Mdp
near term... Bjt dgm
short term... Dab
long term... Dab
aviation... Mdp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 72 mi45 min WNW 33 G 38 35°F 1009.5 hPa23°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY13 mi70 minWNW 113.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist30°F28°F96%1008.3 hPa

Wind History from RME (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9E8E7E4W24
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1 day agoE7E9SE6E7SE7SE8E7E9E9E7E10SE10SE7SE5E6SE7SE6E7SE8E10E8E7E11E8
2 days agoNW14
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NW15NW14NW10NW12NW16
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NW15NW14NW16W17W11
G19
W14W15W9NW5N4CalmCalmCalmE5SE4S3E4

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:20 AM EST     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:56 AM EST     4.14 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:29 PM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:17 PM EST     5.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:21 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.3-0.112.33.23.94.13.72.821.50.80.10.11.22.744.85.35.14.23.12.11.3

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Mon -- 12:30 AM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:04 AM EST     4.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:39 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:21 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:25 PM EST     5.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0-012.33.344.343.12.31.71.10.40.21.22.744.95.45.34.53.42.41.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.