Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mattydale, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 5:49PM Saturday February 24, 2018 10:53 PM EST (03:53 UTC) Moonrise 12:06PMMoonset 2:10AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 938 Pm Est Sat Feb 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 am est Sunday through late Sunday night...
Rest of tonight..East winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southeast. Rain after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Rain with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 37 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201802251015;;510083 FZUS51 KBUF 250238 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 938 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-251015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mattydale, NY
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location: 43.11, -76.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 250134
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
834 pm est Sat feb 24 2018

Synopsis
Our weather will remain wet, through most of Sunday, as a
frontal system slowly approaches. Once the front moves off the
east coast, drier weather will return, for the early part of
the coming week. Temperatures will stay mild.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
830 pm update...

steadier rain has tapered off and shifted to the east this
evening... Leaving mainly NE pa with patchy very light rain or
drizzle. No major changes made to the forecast, with the bulk of
the heavier rain still expected overnight tonight and Sunday
morning... And a small area of light freezing rain possible in
northern oneida county... Still under a winter weather advisory.

May see some very light freezing rain sleet in the higher
elevations of the catskills, but still not significant and not
confident enough for a headline. Increased S SE winds Sunday
across the finger lakes where sustained winds around 20 to 30
mph and gusts 30 to 40 mph are possible.

3 pm update... An area of steady light rain continues to move
across nepa and sullivan county, ny late this afternoon,
associated with a short-wave feature tracking across southern
ontario as of this writing, as well as a stalled frontal
boundary down over the mid-atlantic states. This rain should
temporarily diminish this evening, as the above mentioned short-wave
moves off to our northeast. In the meantime, much of cny will
stay rain-free, under mainly cloudy skies.

Later tonight (mostly after midnight), the next piece of short-
wave energy will track from the southern plains into the ohio
valley, and a trailing occluded front at the surface will also
push eastward towards the western portions of ny and pa. These
features, coupled with improving upper jet support and deeper
moisture, will cause steady rain to quickly come back in and
overspread all of cny and nepa.

For the most part, surface temperatures should stay above the
freezing mark. However, over parts of northern oneida, it still
appears that readings could drop into the 30-32 degree range,
with at least a brief period of freezing rain. Thus, our winter
weather advisory will remain in tact for this area.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
310 pm update... Steady rain Sunday morning, perhaps briefly
heavy in spots, should come to an end from west to east during
the midday and early afternoon hours, as the above mentioned
occluded front sweeps through cny and nepa.

If anything, models have come down a bit in their rainfall
forecasts for this period, perhaps owing to the very progressive
nature of the system overall. In general, we're expecting
0.5-0.75" for most areas, within roughly a 6-12 hour period,
with perhaps a bit more in the traditional upslope areas of the
southern tug hill and pocono plateau regions within a strong
s-se flow regime, and possibly a bit less for parts of the
finger lakes region and the wyoming lackawanna valleys of nepa,
where localized downsloping shadowing effects could come into
play. Although such rainfall will cause rises in our
tributaries and main stem rivers, our present thinking is that
it will be insufficient to generate significant flooding issues.

It is still possible that a few of our main stem river points
could edge into minor flood stage later Sunday into Monday (only
typical lowland flooding would result in this instance) for a
brief time, but that appears to be the worst we can expect at
this point. We'll continue to monitor for any changes.

We should dry out quickly by later in the day Sunday and Sunday
night, as high pressure builds in at the surface, and the upper
level pattern flattens out for a time.

Long term Monday through Saturday
345 pm update...

quiet weather conditions are expected early this week with high
pressure building slowly across the northeast. The air mass will be
rather dry... So cloud cover should be minimal... Which will lead to
afternoon temperatures into the upper 40s and lower 50s... And
overnight lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

As the surface high off the mid-atlantic coast shifts further to the
east Wednesday and an area of low pressure develops in the srn
plains a strong sly flow will ensue. The sfc low will quickly lift
to the northeast around ia il mo Wed night thur morning... And
as a pre-frontal trough lifts into the area along with an
initial band of rain on Thursday the system deepens and becomes
stacked over the SRN great lakes ohio valley region. Thermal
profiles among the various models are not in very good
agreement with the GFS being a bit warmer through the day
Thursday and into thur night... The ECMWF and cmc drawing down
the colder air quickly later in the day thur, changing the rain
to snow sooner. So, for the forecast, have added more mention of
snow at this point, but will need to keep an eye on the model
trends with this seemingly potent winter storm expected to
impact a good portion of the northeast later this week.

Aviation 02z Sunday through Thursday
00z update... First batch of rain is now moving out of the area.

Therefore, we should see a break in the weather for the next 4-6
hours, with generallyVFR to occasional MVFR CIGS around.

Between about 25 06-09z a steadier rain overspreads all of cny
and nepa, conditions should lower area-wide, with below
alternate- ifr restrictions expected much of the time.

Conditions may be slightly higher at kavp and ksyr, with
downsloping winds at play for both sites.

There is a chance of -fzra and or ice pellets at krme at the
onset of precipitation, therefore added in a tempo group for
this potential in krme's TAF between about 25 08-12z.

A strong low-level jet develops between about 25 07-10z... Peaking
in magnitude between 25 11-15z. Initially the direction of the
low level jet at 2k ft agl is between 140-160 degs, but it then
shifts to 190-210 degs after about 25 16z. The llws and jet
diminish Sunday afternoon. We've inserted llws for all terminal
sites to cover this.

As for the surface winds, 10 kt or less can be expected into
this evening. Later tonight and Sunday, winds will increase
significantly from the se, with gusts as high as 20-30 kt
likely, particularly at ksyr, kith, and kbgm. Occasional gust to
35 kts cannot be ruled out at these 3 sites mainly between
25 12-16z. Winds shift out of the wsw Sunday afternoon and
decrease quickly... Becoming less than 12 kts.

Outlook...

Monday-Wednesday... GenerallyVFR.

Thursday... Restrictions may develop in snow, or mixed
precipitation.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 10 am est Sunday for
nyz009.

Synopsis... Mlj
near term... Bjt mlj
short term... Mlj
long term... Bjt
aviation... Mlj mjm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 31 mi54 min SSE 5.1 G 8 1022.6 hPa (-0.7)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 77 mi54 min E 8.9 G 11 35°F 1023 hPa (-1.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 78 mi54 min 35°F 1022.2 hPa (-1.2)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY2 mi60 minE 410.00 miOvercast33°F30°F92%1022.7 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi60 minE 310.00 miOvercast32°F28°F85%1023 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9W8W9NW12W9W6W5W12NW9W7NW6W9NW8N5W5NW7NW5NW4CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmE4
1 day agoCalmE3E4NE6E8E10E10E10E11E8E11E8SE11SE8SE14SE7SE11S8S17
G22
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2 days agoW9W7W6W6W5W4SW3W3NW3CalmCalmCalmSE3N3N4CalmCalmNE3E3NE3CalmSE3SE3E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.