Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 1:44 PM   Moonset 3:22 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 948 Pm Edt Wed Apr 17 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday - Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. Friday night - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Showers in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Saturday - West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. Sunday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Monday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 180129 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 929 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
Rain showers are expected through most of Thursday, before high pressure briefly moves in for Thursday night. Another system will bring more showers to the area on Friday, followed by mainly dry conditions for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

The next round of showers and isolated thunder has weakened to our west as expected so far this evening. However, it is moving in a bit quicker than some of the model guidance has. So with the late evening update made some adjustments on the timing on this next round of showers.

The first round of showers is moving east of the region early this evening. Up next will be a band of thunderstorms over Ohio which is still expected to weaken as it moves toward our region overnight. Discussion below on track.

320 PM Update:

A warm front pushing through the area continues to bring some light rain showers to the area. By tonight, a shortwave will push through the area, which will bring additional rain showers to the area. In addition, some elevated instability will be present west of I-81, so cannot rule out a few embedded thunderstorms.

A brief lull in shower activity is expected around sunrise on Thursday before a weak cold front and trough axis moves through the area from mid morning into the afternoon. This will allow for additional showers to develop. Temperatures on Thursday will vary from west to east, with high in the lower 50s to lower 60s west of I-81, with mid 40s to lower 50s east of I-81.

The front and trough axis moves east of the area Thursday night, while high pressure briefly moves in. This will allow showers to gradually taper off by Thursday evening, but mostly cloudy skies will remain.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
130 PM Update

Friday will feature a cold front pushing through the region.
This will bring widespread rain showers and gusty southerly winds at 10-20 mph ahead of the front. Depending on the exact timing of FROPA, showers could hold on until Friday evening before brief ridging and high pressure builds in Friday night into Saturday morning. Brief high pressure on Saturday will bring mostly dry conditions, however an upper trough and reinforcing shot of cold air (Secondary cold front) comes in Saturday afternoon. CAA advection on NW flow and isolated showers and increasing cold air strato-cu is expected Saturday afternoon. Also, expect breezy west- northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up around 30 mph.

Saturday night is dry, with decreasing clouds and diminishing winds as upper ridge and surface ridge begins to build in. If winds decouple fast enough it will be quite chilly/cold with lows near or just below freezing.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
130 PM Update...

High pressure to end the weekend and into the first half of next week. Overall, this should bring mostly sunny/clear conditions. Expect a large diurnal temperature trend with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s and lows in the low to mid 30s.

At this point Tuesday is also looking dry to start, but the latest guidance suggest at least a chance for late day showers as the next upper level disturbance moves into the Ohio Valley and east-central Great Lakes region. Looking ahead to next Wednesday, and upper level trough will be over the Northeast...bringing a continued chance for rain showers and partly sunny skies. Steady daytime temperatures and a bit milder overnight with the clouds around and a light southwest wind.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Conditions will be deteriorating as the evening progresses as rain showers move into the area. Ceilings and/or visbys will lower to MVFR, then eventually Fuel Alternate. IFR ceilings will be possible as well, but if that occurs, it likely wouldn't occur until later in the evening. Best chance for IFR restrictions tonight will be at KBGM, KELM, KITH and RME. While guidance is hinting at IFR ceilings at KAVP as well, the southeasterly downsloping wind should prevent ceilings from dropping that low.

Conditions improve somewhat Thursday morning for most terminals, with MVFR to Fuel Alternate restrictions expected to return.
Model guidance suggests persistent IFR conditions at BGM for the whole period. Meanwhile IFR conditions are also possible at SYR/RME tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon through Thursday night...Lingering ceiling restrictions possible, but showers will gradually end.

Friday...Rain showers likely with associated restrictions.

Saturday through Monday...NW flow with some MVFR cigs possible at the Central NY terminals; mainly VFR at KAVP.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Montague, NY,