Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mattydale, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 8:02PM Friday August 18, 2017 2:22 PM EDT (18:22 UTC) Moonrise 1:38AMMoonset 4:45PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1039 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
This afternoon..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the morning...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening... Then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear...then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day...then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 47 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201708182115;;574719 FZUS51 KBUF 181439 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1039 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-182115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mattydale, NY
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location: 43.11, -76.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 181757
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
157 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
A few showers or thunderstorms, could linger into this evening,
as a cold front passes through the region. Saturday and Sunday
look mostly rain-free, with seasonable temperatures, thanks to
high pressure, building down from eastern canada.

Near term through Saturday
A very moist atmosphere covers northeast pa and much of central
ny late this morning with dew points ranging from the upper 60s
to the mid 70s. Latest SPC meso-analysis showing an axis of 2.0
inch precipitable water values extending northeast across
northeast pa, with values falling off to around 1.2 inches over
far western ny. The 12z buf sounding shows a much dryer
atmosphere over western ny with some capping advancing slowly
eastward toward central ny. A mid-to-upper level trough is
advancing east from the great lakes but the bulk of this system
is forecast to lift north of our area this afternoon with
minimal height falls across our area.

Persistent but broken band of showers from central pa northeast
toward the catskills is forecast to push slowly east through
this afternoon with highest rain chances for our area over
northeast pa into sullivan county ny. A little clearing can be
seen over southern pa and this may work into northeast pa this
afternoon which would enhance the convective potential. Mlcape
values would likely climb to near or just above 1000 j kg with
any clearing in that area, and with mid-level flow forecast
around 40 kts the shear CAPE combination will be enough for a
slight risk of severe weather with rotating storms a possibility.

Again this is dependent on getting some clearing and
instability. Localized heavy rain will also be a concern with
very moist profiles. Farther northwest some clearing is likely
this afternoon from the finger lakes to mohawk valley but the
very dry airmass moving in from western ny should act to inhibit
convective chances. Expecting scattered showers and storms to
develop after 2 pm but the severe risk for upstate ny looks
rather low. Previous forecast is below.

Water vapor channels on the goes-16 show deep moisture
advecting northeast into ny and pa in advance of a well defined
upper level wave in the upper great lakes region. Also in
advance of this wave was a strong low-level jet seen in the vwp
winds around 1 km above ground level of at least 40 knots from
the southwest. Model guidance was picking up on this belt of
low-level winds which were rising isentropically and advecting
moisture into the local area. This also was destabilizing the
atmosphere and leading to convection which was moving across
central ny and northeast pa at this time. This first batch of
showers and isolated storms was well handled by the latest hrrr
run. There was also another batch of showers in southwest pa
that the hrrr brings northeast into northeast pa and parts of
central ny between 10z and 17z. So weighted pops based on hrrr
reflectivity fields. Then after 17z, models show the layer of
deeper moisture tracking quickly east of central ny and by 00z
southeast of northeast pa. Best chance for additional showers
and storms will be in this deep moist layer in northeast
pa sullivan co. Ny where precipitable waters were around 2.00
inches. The forcing for ascent in this moist layer was not that
impressive but enough for activity to form. For now, have added
chance for locally heavy rain in northeast pa-sullivan ny.

Concur with marginal risk for flash flooding from the wpc
outlook. Will update hazardous weather outlook and mention
enhance wording for the chances of flooding in these areas.

The rest of the forecast area this afternoon will be under very
dry layer aloft as seen in the low-mid and high level water
vapor channels and without sufficient forcing initially,
parcels will just entrain out despite large projected mixed
layer capes. Some isolated to scattered showers and marginal
storms could form but best chance for any organized storm
activity will come around 22z-02z or so when a cold front
presses east with the advancing upper level wave from the great
lakes. But, at this time capes will be dropping. Shear values
were fairly impressive with the 0-6 km values around 35-40
knots. NAM 3km does have a line of storms forming around 00z or
so. So we will continue to mention chance for severe
thunderstorms in hwo and concur with SPC marginal risk for
severe.

For later tonight, convection passes east and some lingering showers
remain.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
1230 pm update... Overall, things will be quieting down this
period, as the flow aloft flattens out, and surface ridging
builds into ny pa from the west.

Any lingering early evening showers Saturday should quickly
dissipate with time. Thereafter, rain-free weather is expected,
with skies becoming mostly clear for the second part of the
weekend.

Temperatures will be seasonable, with Sunday's highs mostly in
the upper 70s-lower 80s, along with low humidity levels.

Long term Monday through Thursday
1245 pm update... On the large-scale, model agreement is fairly
good this period, indicating a transition towards more
amplification once again next week. This pattern should take
the form of a western canadian-northwest CONUS trough, central
conus-intermountain west ridge, and an eastern canadian-
northeast CONUS trough.

The week should start out generally rain-free and warm from
Monday through much of Tuesday, with highs mostly in the 80s. As
heights aloft begin to fall ahead of the developing eastern
trough mentioned above, a cold front should slowly approach, and
bring increasing chances of showers thunderstorms from later
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Later next week, although we should trend drier behind the
aforementioned cold front, it likely turn much cooler as well.

In fact, by next Thursday Friday, we're looking at highs in the
upper 60s-lower 70s for many areas of cny nepa.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
Broken line of showers and thunderstorms will move across
northeast pennsylvania through late this afternoon with
scattered showers farther north. Have covered for a shower at
all of the TAF sites through about 23z but most of the time will
be rain-free. Skies will clear this evening then areas of low
clouds and fog will develop between 06z and 13z. Skies will
become partly sunny by afternoon on Saturday with scattered
showers developing again Saturday afternoon into the evening.

Winds will be light from the southwest into this evening, light
and variable tonight then become westerly around 10 kts on
Saturday.

Outlook...

Friday overnight...VFR.

Saturday...VFR. Chance of flight impacts in afternoon showers.

Sunday through Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... Flight impacts possible in thunderstorms.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Mlj
near term... Djn mse
short term... Mlj
long term... Mlj
aviation... Jab mse


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 31 mi53 min SSW 9.9 G 16 83°F 1006.3 hPa68°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 77 mi83 min SW 8 G 19 83°F 1007.5 hPa (-0.6)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 78 mi53 min 84°F 1006.2 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY2 mi29 minSW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F66°F53%1006.1 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi29 minSSW 510.00 miFair86°F69°F57%1006.3 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE9NE6E8E7E5E7E4E5E7SE9SE8S8S12
G20
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1 day agoNW12NW10NW11W10NW7NW4CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmE3SE3E5E3E3E4E3E3E8E5NE7NE6
2 days agoW11W9SW7W6W8SW5SW4W3W3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmN3NW3NW6NW5NW5NW7NW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.