Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 7:20 PM   Moonset 5:08 AM

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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 844 Am Pdt Tue Apr 23 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 5 pm pdt this afternoon - .
Today - N wind 15 kt. Wind waves nw 4 ft at 6 seconds. SWell nw 3 to 4 ft at 10 seconds. Tonight - N wind 10 to 15 kt - .easing to 5 to 10 kt early in the morning. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds. Wed - NE wind 5 to 10 kt - .veering to E in the morning, then - . Backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds in the morning - .becoming less than 2 ft. SWell W 3 ft at 9 seconds. Wed night - NW wind 5 to 10 kt - .backing to sw after midnight. Wind waves less than 2 ft. SWell W 4 ft at 10 seconds. Thu - S wind 15 to 20 kt - .becoming 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 5 seconds. NW swell 4 ft at 10 seconds - .shifting to the W 4 to 5 ft at 9 seconds in the afternoon. Showers.Thu night - SW wind 15 to 20 kt - .veering to W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves sw 5 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 4 to 6 ft at 8 seconds. Showers.Fri - W wind 10 kt - .backing to sw after midnight. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 7 ft at 9 seconds. Sat - SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves W 2 ft at 4 seconds - . Shifting to the S 2 ft at 4 seconds after midnight. SWell W 5 ft at 12 seconds.

PZZ300 844 Am Pdt Tue Apr 23 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - Moderate north winds and steep wind driven seas will continue today. The strongest winds and steepest seas will be beyond 10 nm from shore and south of cape blanco. Winds will gradually ease today, but seas will remain steep and hazardous to small craft. A southerly surge of stratus could reach up to around gold beach later this morning. Conditions improve tonight into Wednesday, but a series of fronts will bring unsettled weather late this week.

FXUS66 KMFR 231640 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 940 AM PDT Tue Apr 23 2024

DISCUSSION
An update is not necessary. Instability will develop this afternoon with the highest probability for thunderstorms between 2 pm and 6 pm in Siskiyou and Modoc counties, extending into southern portions of Klamath and Lake counties. The northernmost extent of storms could extend to the Siskiyou Mountains, and the Winter Rim area into northern Lake county.
This includes Fort Jones, Yreka, Weed, Mt. Shasta, Tennant, Lava Beds, Alturas, and Lakeview.

There is some similarity in the scenario for tomorrow, with a slight southeastward shift, with the highest probability for afternoon thunderstorms in southeast Siskiyou into Modoc and southeast Lake counties, including Alturas and Lakeview.

A change to a wet, cool/cold pattern occurs Thursday through Friday night with a cold frontal passage on Thursday. The pattern looks to remain active with additional episodes of wet weather during the weekend through early next week.

AVIATION
23/12Z TAFs...VFR levels continue across much of northern California and southern Oregon this morning. Marine stratus is moving north along the Oregon coast, bringing IFR levels to Gold Beach. Additionally, stratus may develop near North Bend, but will only linger briefly this morning if it does. Marine stratus could return on Wednesday morning.

Chances for showers (30-60%) and thunderstorms (20-40%) remain in the forecast for Siskiyou and Modoc counties as well as southern Klamath and Lake counties for this afternoon. The highest chances for activity are over the California counties, and these chances decrease quickly near the end of the TAF period. Isolated thunderstorms may bring lightning and strong winds as well as locally lower ceilings and visibilities. -TAD

MARINE
Updated 845 AM Tuesday, April 23, 2024...Elevated northerly winds continue under a thermal trough. The strongest winds remain south of Cape Blanco and beyond 10 nm from shore this morning. Steep seas continue in all waters. The thermal trough will weaken through the day, but a Small Craft Advisory will be in place for all waters through 5 PM today, then will continue for waters south of Cape Blanco until 8 PM.

Seas will remain calm through Wednesday and into Thursday morning before active weather returns to the area. Westerly fresh swell and gusty southerly winds could rebuild steep seas by late Thursday or early Friday, especially in outer waters. However, current guidance suggests that waves only have a 10-20% of exceeding 9 feet through the weekend. So while steep seas are possible, more hazardous conditions are not expected. -TAD/Hermansen

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 457 AM PDT Tue Apr 23 2024/

DISCUSSION...The upper level pattern will transition with low pressure developing off the California coast and low pressure pushing toward the British Columbia Coast. This will put our region in southwest flow and some mid level moisture will move into the area. This combined with some model indicated instability (-2 to -4 LIs, 300-500 J/kg CAPE) is boosting confidence in thunderstorm potential for today and Wednesday. Right now, today looks to be the bigger day in terms of thunderstorm coverage. The best chances (40%-70%) look to be over western Siskiyou County and Modoc County with some potential (20%-40%) extending into the southern portions of Jackson/Klamath/Lake Counties. Storm motion will be from the southwest, but current thinking is that any storms that develop over the Siskiyous would likely stay stuck on the terrain and not really drift into the Rogue Valley...though it's not out of the question (10% chance) a storm skates by Ashland Tuesday afternoon. The focus for storms on Wednesday shifts farther east on Wednesday over eastern Siskiyou, Modoc and southern Lake Counties and the trigger looks weaker for Wednesday, so thunderstorm coverage looks less overall. For the remainder of the area, conditions will remain dry, though expect an uptick in afternoon winds and cloud cover with temperatures trending cooler.

The pattern turns cooler and wetter as we head into the extended period.

Previous Extended Discussion (Thursday through Monday)...Generally it will be cool and unsettled during the forecast period. A stronger front will approach the coast Thursday morning, then moving inland during the day. The bulk of the precipitation will be along the coast, coastal mountains, Cascades and north of the Umpqua Divide. The front will move east of the Cascades Thursday afternoon with precipitation becoming scattered. Snow levels will also lower to around 5500 feet along the Cascades late Thursday afternoon and hover around that elevation Thursday night. This in combination with a higher mid-late April sun angle, will put a cap on snow concerns due to warm road surface temperatures, and should be mainly confined to Crater Lake and Diamond Lake areas Thursday night.

Upper troughing remain over the area Friday, although the upper trough axis will shift east late Friday afternoon and we could see showers gradually diminish in coverage.

The operational ECMWF and GFs show different solutions Saturday with the GFS showing more ridging and a relative break in the action. The ECMWF brings another upper trough and front into the area Saturday morning. No surprise the majority of the respective ensemble members also show varying solutions. Even taking the operational GFS at face value the ridding is weak and with a weak upper trough just offshore, but still hints at a progressive pattern. Therefore we'll keep showers and cool afternoon temperatures in the forecast.

Upper troughiness remains over our area Sunday through Monday, and possibly through the middle of next week which will result in cooler temperatures and high chance for showers over a good portion of the forecast area. -Petrucelli

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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Bandon
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Tue -- 12:05 AM PDT     6.51 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:07 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:48 AM PDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:02 PM PDT     5.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM PDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 06:34 PM PDT     1.75 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:10 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:19 PM PDT     Moonrise
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Bandon, Coquille River, Oregon, Tide feet

Charleston
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Tue -- 12:18 AM PDT     7.47 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:07 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:54 AM PDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:13 PM PDT     6.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM PDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 06:43 PM PDT     2.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:10 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:19 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Charleston, Oregon, Tide feet

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