Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Liverpool, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:49PM Thursday June 22, 2017 10:16 AM EDT (14:16 UTC) Moonrise 3:19AMMoonset 6:08PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1044 Pm Edt Wed Jun 21 2017
Overnight..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening... Then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening...then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet...then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 65 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201706220915;;615881 FZUS51 KBUF 220244 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1044 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-220915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Liverpool, NY
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location: 43.12, -76.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 221051
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
651 am edt Thu jun 22 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will keep conditions dry and mild through this
afternoon. Tonight through Friday night more showers and
thunderstorms are expected as fronts pass through the area.

Locally heavy rain is possible. Seasonal temperatures are
expected into the weekend with decreasing chances for
precipitation.

Near term through Friday
415 am update...

main concerns in the near term are focused around patchy valley fog
this morning, the onset of showers and storms this evening with an
increase in coverage and intensity on Friday, along with warmer
temperatures, a more humid air mass, and gusty S SW winds.

High pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft across the
region this morning has allowed for mostly clear skies and calm
winds... Which is favorable for areas of valley fog through SRN ny
and NRN pa. Goes16 satellite and area observations picking up on fog
development early this morning. Fog will likely lift and mix out
between 7-9 am this morning.

Most of the day will be pleasant today with mostly sunny skies this
morning and increasing clouds in the afternoon. A warm front will
lift N newd from the SRN great lakes into NRN ny. As this front
moves across the region, the abundance of dry air in place will need
to be overcome to allow precip to form and reach the ground. It
appears this will take longer than previously thought... So a delay
in the precip onset was performed with the morning forecast. Now
have the best chance of showers and storms along the warm front not
impacting the finger lakes and mohawk valley area until after sunset
tonight.

Precipitation efficiency will really start to ramp up Friday morning
and last through the as a very warm and moist swly flow sets up
ahead of an incoming upper S w. The deep moisture streaming into the
area will be associated with remnants of tropical storm cindy. Pwats
will range from 1.5 to as much as 2 inches at times Friday. Model
guidance is not in strong agreement with the placement, timing or
intensity of the precipitation during the day. There will likely be
a convective component as the boundary warms destabilizes during the
day, but there is also some indication of a predecessor rainfall
event (pre). Portions of ny pa may be situated in an environment
favorable for this type of heavy rain event. This type of
environment consists of being in the right entrance region of an
upper jet, ahead of a synoptic trough, within a plume of deep
tropical moisture, and near a low level theta-e axis... And all of
these conditions may end up being met. At this point, we are not
ready to nail down a location or rainfall amounts, but the potential
for heavy rain somewhere in the area is looking more favorable. Some
times these types of events can be very localized and not well
handled by model guidance, so we'll need to be diligent in looking
for signals as today progresses. The most favorable time for heavy
rain appears to be during the day Friday. A flash flood watch may be
needed at some point.

Will also need to concerned with the possibility of severe
storms on Friday... With the main threat being damaging winds.

Wet bulb zero heights will likely be too high to develop severe
hail. Low level shear will be elevated... Around 30 kt of 0-1km
bulk shear... So the potential for a few tornadoes is not out of
the question.

High temperatures today will top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Lows tonight will remain very mild, only dropping into the 60s and
lower 70s. These mild morning temps and a strong influx of
warm moist air from the S SW will set the stage for a hot and humid
day Friday... Into the 80s, with dew points in the 60s and possibly
lower 70s.

Short term Friday night through Saturday
4 am update...

showers and thunderstorms continue into Friday night. Models
show the cold front moving a little slower. Passage late evening
to around midnight. Further northward progress of tropical
moisture from remnants of cindy but most keep it south of pa.

Despite this pwats will be around 2 inches. Storm motion this
period will be moving faster so only issue with flash flooding
will be training. Average rainfall amounts will be under an inch
this period. A "marginal" chance of severe weather the entire
area Friday afternoon and evening. During the evening the
biggest threat will be in northeast pa and the catskills.

Moderate instability and shear Friday evening. The instability
will be mostly low level. Biggest severe threat damaging winds.

Friday night lows in the 60s with the moist humid air.

Slow drying behind the front Saturday. Cooler air takes its time so
highs near average mostly in the upper 70s. Rainfall Saturday less
than a tenth of an inch with chance pops.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
4 am update...

little change to the forecast here. Unsettled and cooler than
normal with an upper level trough over the area Monday and
Tuesday. Some improvement Wednesday to Thursday as heights
slowly build and surface high pressure sets up across the middle
atlantic states.

Previous discussion...

the second half of the weekend into early and mid next week
still looks to feature a cool and overall unsettled pattern as
the next upper level trough and associated surface features move
through the great lakes region. Sunday looks to be the
relatively driest day in the long range with only isolated to
scattered afternoon showers. A pair of stronger waves moving
through Monday and again Tuesday afternoon will bring a better
chance for more widespread showers and storms. Temperatures
through the long range will be generally below average with
highs mainly in the low 70s.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
High pressure will continue to dominate today withVFR
conditions after the valley fog lifts and mixes out after 13z.

A warm front will moves in from the W SW this evening and bring
mid lvl clouds to the region, along with a few rain showers to
ksyr and krme after 03z. The front is expected to lift to the
north after 06z, with much of the region in a dry slot with
precipitation holding off until after 12z Friday. Light and
variable winds this morning will become S SW around 5 to 10
knots later today and persist tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday through Friday night... Showers and thunderstorms,
especially Friday, with associated restrictions.

Saturday - Monday... MostlyVFR, but shower storm and brief
restriction possible.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Bjt
near term... Bjt
short term... Tac
long term... Rrm tac
aviation... Bjt kah rrm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 28 mi52 min SW 6 G 8 68°F 1015.5 hPa57°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 74 mi76 min SSW 6 G 8.9 67°F 1016.3 hPa (-0.3)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 75 mi52 min 69°F 1015.8 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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W12
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G14
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SW4
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G14
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G19
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY5 mi22 minWSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F57°F61%1015 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY19 mi22 minSSW 610.00 miFair71°F59°F66%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W13W10
G18
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NW8W7
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NW12NW12W10NW9W7SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SW3SW7
1 day agoW15
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W12SW18
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NW13NW8NW8W4NW8NW6CalmS5E3E3E4W6
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S5CalmSW3SW3W8W10W9W11
2 days agoW10SW8W7W5SW5S5S4S6SW3CalmNE3NE3SW3S4E3S5SW6SW7SW9SW6SW8SW10SW18
G23
W18
G22

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.