Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Liverpool, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 8:33PM Sunday May 26, 2019 11:29 PM EDT (03:29 UTC) Moonrise 1:02AMMoonset 11:31AM Illumination 43% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201905262100;;499264 Fzus51 Kbuf 261732 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 132 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-262100- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 132 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
This afternoon..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Light and variable winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Scattered Thunderstorms with a chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 47 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Liverpool, NY
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location: 43.12, -76.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 270015
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
815 pm edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
Early evening showers and thunderstorms across northeast
pennsylvania will give way to high pressure and drier conditions
later tonight. High pressure stays over the area for memorial
day, then a warm front returns with showers and some
thunderstorms during the middle of the week.

Near term through Monday night
As of 730 pm Sunday...

increased cloud cover through 06z, as overcast cirrus will
remain thick through at least midnight and then may start to
thin out based on model soundings. No other changes needed at
this time.

As of 4 pm Sunday...

storms continue across the southern forecast area this
afternoon. Increased pop across this area through the next few
hours and then just a low chance for a storm later this evening.

145 pm update... Southern third of the CWA is within the
favorable entrance region of a 500-250 mb jet core this
afternoon with a surface cold front drifting southward across
cny. These combined with a weak MCV from overnight convection
upstream (now moving across central pa) are the players for
shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon. All
observed, and 12z model projections, suggest that development of
shra tsra over nepa will take place later this afternoon,
roughly between about 18z- 00z. A few renegade cells will be
possible along the ny southern tier nearest the surface cold
front and still within some marginal daytime instability. Not
much has been changed to the overall pattern of the pop wx
forecast with a tight gradient of isolated to numerous showers
and thunderstorms in the forecast with the greatest chances
toward the wyoming valley and poconos. I did nudge up the
numbers to 60-70% likelihood in those areas for a few hours,
otherwise mainly brief scattered activity is expected. Cams
models do have some discrepancy in coverage and strength of
forecast radar echoes, or else we could have timed in the sure
bet for rain.

Overnight, the front passes far enough to our south with drier
high pressure building in. Light NE wind and drier air should
help to limit valley fog, but the t TD trends will have to be
monitored closely this evening. Eventual lows tonight dropping
to the upper 40s in the catskills and upper susquehanna region
with lower to mid 50s elsewhere.

Memorial day is still looking to be about as good as it gets
here with high pressure settling over the area bringing mainly
sunny skies and seasonal temperatures. Tomorrow's highs
look to be just a touch lower than today, but still mainly in
the low-mid 70s across cny and upper 70s for nepa. Fair weather
lasts into Monday night before models lift a warm front back at
us for Tuesday. 12z NAM is the driest going toward 12z Tuesday,
while the ggem and GFS definitely bring QPF to our western areas
by morning. My hunch is that it will rain, but for now will play
the blended guidance numbers and maintain just a chance of rain
after 06z Tuesday.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday
320 pm update...

main concerns in the short term remain focused on the next low
pressure system expected to roll E sewd across SRN ny and ERN pa
with rain showers and possibly a few thunderstorms Tuesday into
Tuesday evening... And then another batch of showers and storms
Wednesday afternoon.

Mid week period will continue to be defined by a nearly
stationary boundary stretching across ny and pa and multiple
waves rolling ewd triggering a nearly continuous supply of
showers and storms through the region. The north-south placement
of this boundary will determine how far the warm unstable
sector. There may be a brief break late Tuesday night early wed
morning... But confidence is low.

Temperatures will be on the mild side Tuesday with highs only
topping out in the 60s and lower 70s... And dew points in the
50s. Conditions should be fairly stable early Tuesday with
mainly rain showers. However, in the afternoon instability will
become weak to marginal with a few isolated storms possible.

Conditions on Wednesday will be a bit more conducive for
thunderstorms with highs climbing into the mid 70s to lower 80s
with dew points in the lower to mid 60s. Ml CAPE values will
likely exceed 1000 j kg with deep layer shear around 40 kt will
develop in and around an ewd moving surface low... Which may end
up being conducive for strong to possibly severe storms.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
320 pm update...

a trailing cold front will sweep through west to east Wednesday
night with diminishing showers and storms through the night. Yet
another wave will ride in from the west across the great lakes
Thursday with more showers and storms possible through Thursday.

Lingering showers and isolated weak storms possible Thursday
night with more uncertainty arriving on Friday. The latest gfs
and cmc hold back the front across the region and linger even
more showers through the area into Friday afternoon. However,
the latest ECMWF brings the front clear through the area and
builds in an area of high pressure from the west along with dry
and cooler air mass.

The high gets squeezed ewd on Saturday with a northern branch
and southern branch low pressure systems moving in and bringing
in more chances for precipitation by later in the weekend.

Temperatures remain on the mild to warm side late this week with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
MainlyVFR conditions are forecast this TAF period as a cold
front continues moving through northern pennsylvania. At kavp,
vfr showers are possible through 03z. For the rest of the
overnight period mid high level clouds then scattered cumulus
on Monday. For the rest of the tafs, mid high level clouds
gradually scattering out overnight with scattered cumulus on
Monday. At kelm, due to wet soil conditions ifr fog may occur
between 09z-12z although not real confident due to dry air
advection and northeast flow just off the deck.

Winds becoming light and variable overnight then north northwest
on Monday at 5-8 knots.

Outlook...

Monday night and Tuesday... Some restrictions in showers late
Monday night and Tuesday.

Tuesday night through Thursday... MainlyVFR but some
restrictions from scattered showers and storms at times.

Friday...VFR.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Jab
near term... Jab mpk
short term... Bjt
long term... Bjt
aviation... Rrm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 28 mi48 min W 8 G 12 58°F 1014.1 hPa46°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 74 mi60 min WSW 6 G 7 62°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 75 mi48 min 60°F 1014.3 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY5 mi36 minWSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy60°F48°F67%1014.1 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY19 mi36 minW 410.00 miFair54°F45°F72%1014.3 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10SW5SW5SW8SW10SW6SW8W10W13W14
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1 day agoCalmSE3E4SE5SE3E4E3E7E5E5SE6S9S8S10S12
G19
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2 days agoW9W13W15
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NW12NW13NW12NW9
G17
W12NW6W8NW7N6N4N4SE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.