Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Liverpool, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 4:40PM Saturday November 17, 2018 2:29 PM EST (19:29 UTC) Moonrise 2:15PMMoonset 12:41AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 631 Am Est Sat Nov 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely through early afternoon, then scattered rain showers late. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 5 to 15 knots. Scattered rain and snow showers in the evening, then scattered snow showers overnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers Monday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201811171600;;438075 FZUS51 KBUF 171132 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 631 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-171600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Liverpool, NY
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location: 43.12, -76.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 171736
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1236 pm est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
A weak storm system will slide into the mid atlantic on Sunday
and Monday. This storm will bring a few inches of snow to ny and
pa.

Near term through Sunday
1040 am update...

west winds traveling over the lakes will keep light lake effect
rain and snow showers over portions of our region through today.

For the morning update, we added chance pops for lake effect
showers extending off lake erie toward the southern tier, as
indicated by the current radar depiction.

We also increased temperatures this afternoon as several valley
locations are already near their predicted maximums.

4 am update...

today... A weak wave moving through the area will bring spotty
drizzle freezing drizzle across the twin tiers through about
5am. Mostly cloudy skies are expected today as model soundings
show plenty of low level moisture. A westerly low level flow
will keep fairly weak lake effect snow rain showers mainly
across northern oneida county. Due to marginal 850mb
temperatures and shallow moisture snow accumulations through
today will be 2 inches or less. Highs toady will range in the
middle 30s to around 40.

Tonight... A weak surface trough will drop through the region
bringing some cold air advection and scattered flurries or snow
showers to central new york. Any accumulations will be a few
tenths of an inch or less. Southeast of lake ontario, lake
effect snow showers are likely with a steering flow around 290
degrees. Due to shallow moisture and weak forcing snow
accumulations will generally be around one inch from the
syracuse area to the western mohawk valley. Overnight lows will
generally drop into the mid 20s.

Sunday... Early Sunday morning scattered flurries or snow showers
southeast of lake ontario will lift north quickly and dissipate
as low level flow backs. A low pressure system moving from the
tennessee valley into the mid atlantic region will spread light
snow mainly across the twin tiers during the late morning and
early afternoon hours. In the wyoming valley a light rain snow
mix is forecast due to warmer surface temperatures. Snow
accumulation around one inch is likely. Highs on Sunday will
only be in the lower to middle 30s.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday night
400 am update... Rather unsettled and unseasonably cold for this
period. A weak, nearly stationary boundary looks to bisect the
area from SW to NE Sunday night into Monday, before only very
slowly moving off to the east. There are still plenty of model
differences uncertainty on exactly where an area of weak warm
air advection isentropic lift precipitation will break out. The
general idea seems to be to continue a period of light snow
into Sunday evening night across the twin tiers and NE pa... With
drier weather toward the ny thruway corridor, which will be
well north of the best moisture & lift associated with the weak
baroclinic zone. Current forecasts project snow amounts ranging
from nil near syracuse rome... With 0.5 - 1.5 inches from binghamton
to elmira southeast into much of NE pa and sullivan county ny.

On Monday, the boundary may drift slightly off to the south and
east, however, as another weak wave moves along the front, precip
chances again spread northward... To include the southern tier
of ny and all of NE pa. Due to the uncertainty, limited pops to
high chance for this period. Daytime boundary layer temperatures
may also be warm enough for a mix of rain and snow, or even just
rain in the wyoming valley region during the late morning and
afternoon hours. With marginal surface temperatures (mid-30s to
around 40), am not expecting much if any accumulation during the
day Monday, except perhaps over the higher hilltops from the ny
southern tier southward. Expect mainly dry weather across the
north including penn yan, syracuse and utica rome.

Monday night: the upper level trough continues to slowly press
south through ontario and into the northeast us. This should help
to slowly nudge the aforementioned boundary off to the south
and east. One final wave looks to ride along the boundary, and
at this time looks to mainly affect NE pa and the southern
catskills with another round of light snow or snow showers. Late
at night we introduce a chance for snow showers across the entire
forecast area as the trough axis approaches our northwestern
zones as well. Overnight lows will mainly between 25-30.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: the upper level trough axis moves
through along with surface cold front during the day on Tuesday.

Temperatures may rise a few degrees late morning midday, then
expect slowly falling temperatures in the afternoon as 850mb
temps fall to -6 to -8c. Expect scattered snow showers across
most of the area as the front moves through, with a lake effect
response behind the boundary. Went with likely snow showers
across the favored lake effect areas along the ny thruway
corridor during the day Tuesday, fading to high chance pops for
snow showers Tuesday night in the same areas. The rest of the
forecast area will just have a few snow showers or flurries
around Tuesday night, with cold temperatures. Overnight lows are
forecast to dip into the teens areawide.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
420 am update... The extended period starts off very cold with
chances for snow showers and lake effect snow Wednesday into
Thursday. Then, gradually turning more seasonable with a chance
for rain showers by next weekend.

Latest guidance seems to be in decent agreement that a very
cold upper level low with arctic air will pass by just to our
north and east later Wednesday, Wednesday night and Thursday am.

A weak clipper system should pass by across northern new
england Wednesday, with snow showers possible as the front
pushes south across central ny. Depending on how far south this
unseasonably cold airmass advances will have large implications
on the overall forecast for this period. The latest 00z ecmwf,
ecmwf ensemble mean, and 00z cmc all suggest a very cold airmass
working its way across our entire cwa, with 850mb temps falling
between about -16 to -20c by 12z Thursday. The latest 00z gfs
is cold, but not quite as extreme... Bringing 850mb temps down
to around -8 to -12c. Either way, this air mass looks to be very
cold and dry... Again, with arctic origins. For now have chance
of snow showers across all of central ny Wednesday, with a
slight chance across the northern tier of pa. Then, continued
with a chance of snow showers for areas down wind of lake
ontario and the finger lakes Wednesday night. Tapered pops to
slight chance of flurries by Thursday as the dry airmass really
sets in. As for temperatures, leaned colder with this forecast
update, based on the latest available guidance. Wednesday should
see highs in the upper 20s to mid-30s south, then temps fall
into the teens or near 20 Wednesday night, with highs only
recovering into the mid to upper 20s Thursday. These numbers
could trend even colder if the cmc ECMWF solutions pan out.

Then, guidance is in fairly good agreement that upper level
heights begin to rise Thursday night into Friday as a ridge
builds overhead. This should keep our weather dry, under partly
cloudy skies. Cold canadian surface highs moves in Thursday
night, which looks to make for a very cold night. Lows will be
in the teens to around 20 once again, with light winds. We
finally see a gradual warming trend by Friday and especially
Saturday as southerly winds increase. The next weather system
approaches by Saturday bringing chances for rain showers as high
temperatures rise into the low to mid-40s.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
A mix of lowVFR and MVFR ceilings will remain over the region
this afternoon and tonight as lake effect snow showers continue
to skirt the krme terminal.

MVFR clouds will thicken Sunday morning as an approaching storm
moves through the mid-atlantic. Light snow will spread into
kavp, kbgm, kelm, and kith between 15z and 18z.

Outlook...

Sunday pm through Sunday night... Low pressure passing to our
south with bring light snow and associated restrictions,
primarily to kelm kbgm kavp.

Monday through Tuesday... Improving toVFR on Monday then
restrictions with snow showers Monday night and Tuesday.

Wednesday... GenerallyVFR conditions with scattered light snow
showers north of kith.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Djp
near term... Djp rrm
short term... Mjm
long term... Mjm
aviation... Djp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 28 mi41 min W 25 G 29 40°F 1020.1 hPa29°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 74 mi29 min W 14 G 19 38°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 75 mi41 min 38°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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SW10
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SE12
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G14

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY5 mi35 minW 1210.00 miOvercast36°F28°F76%1021 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY19 mi35 minWSW 910.00 miOvercast37°F28°F70%1020.8 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10SW9W15W15
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W13W12SW12W13W11W11W12SW12W11W12SW10W11W11W15W14W12
1 day agoE10E9E10E11E11E14E15
G23
E14
G20
E11E10NE12NE10NE5N4CalmCalmE4SE3SW3NW3Calm3SW8W11
2 days agoNW8W8W5W5SW4NW3NW3W3NE4E4E6E4E4E5E5E5E5E7NE7E7E11E11E10E10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.