Friday, January18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brighton, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 5:05PM Friday January 18, 2019 5:50 PM EST (22:50 UTC) Moonrise 2:36PMMoonset 4:52AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 631 Am Est Fri Jan 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 11 am est this morning through this evening...
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Light snow this morning, then a chance of snow showers this afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast. A chance of snow showers in the evening, then a chance of snow overnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow. Light freezing spray in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday night..Northeast winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. Light freezing spray. Snow. Waves 6 to 9 feet building to 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Sunday..North winds 15 to 25 knots. Light freezing spray. Snow. Waves 8 to 11 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. Snow during the day, then a chance of snow showers Monday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 38 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201901181600;;540323 FZUS51 KBUF 181137 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 631 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-181600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brighton, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.12, -77.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbuf 182058
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
358 pm est Fri jan 18 2019

Synopsis
A significant winter storm will impact the area this weekend, with
heavy snowfall, blowing snow and hazardous travel conditions. Cold
air advection over the weekend will bring the coldest temperatures
of the season, and combined with winds, will cause well below zero
wind chills across the entire area. A brief warmup for the middle of
next week will be followed by another period of below normal
temperatures.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Tonight, any remaining lake flurries or light snow showers will
diminish in spatial coverage through the night as moisture decreases
from west to east and as winds shift to the northeast, further
scowering out any remaining light flurries and snow showers. Any
snowfall through the night should be light and only reach around a
half inch or so. Low temperatures tonight will be low single digits
across the north country and in the mid teens for the rest of the
area.

As the morning approaches, pops will start to increase across the
far western portion of the area where chance pops for light snow
starting around sunrise in the morning. These increasing pops will
be associated with a significant winter storm system that will
impact the area from tomorrow through Sunday, with significant
snow, winds and bitterly cold temperatures.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday night
Major winter storm moves into the region...

warm advection off the deck starts fairly early on Saturday as the
model consensus favors modest ascent in the 285-295k layer with
sufficient moisture transport in the layer and condensation pressure
deficits falling off toward 10 mb near to or shortly after 10 am
across western new york. This should allow for light snow to develop
progressively from west to east across the area. By late afternoon,
moisture transport in the layer rapidly increases from the
southwest, centered decidedly over the southern tier on the model
consensus. This should allow for some ramp up in snow intensity over
the southern tier by the afternoon hours.

As the upper wave approaches by the evening Saturday, a curved
coupled upper jet crosses the region concurrent with the arrival of
a fairly deep deformation band and frontogenetical maxima that seem
to be largely co-located with the dendritic growth zone. This should
allow for rapidly increasing snow-to-liquid ratios (from about 20:1
over the northern CWA to about 14:1 over the southern portions of
the cwa) by the evening hours as the best forcing for ascent arrives
into the southern tier, then proceeds northward toward the
buffalo rochester area. The newly arrived 12z NAM and also now the
12z GFS have taken yet another northward jaunt to largely match with
the 00z ECMWF and consistent 12z canadian. With further support from
the sref, this has necessitated an uptick in snow amounts
essentially south of the thruway over western new york as well as in
the north country.

As the deformation band lifts northward, northeasterly flow develops
over lake ontario. This combined with a fairly stable boundary layer
located largely in the dendritic growth zone, as well as confluent
northeast flow in the boundary layer over the lake should allow for
the development of a lake effect band underneath the arriving large
scale snowfall. This will allow for local enhancement in monroe,
orleans, and niagara counties, which has necessitated an uptick in
snow amounts there, as well. Additionally, a stiff northeast wind
off the lake that will become increasingly gusty through the night
will allow for blowing snow to develop in this area first.

The deformation band starts to pivot from northwest to southeast
later in the night as the 850-800 mb low passes across northern
pennsylvania. This will sag the western portions of the band quickly
southward, while the eastern portions of the band will linger near
lewis and oswego counties a bit longer. As this occurs, boundary
layer flow trends more northerly into Sunday. This will allow for
the single band of lake effect snow off lake ontario to transition
into multi-band along the entire southern shore of the lake.

Likewise, as the 850-800 mb low departs, cold air advection off the
deck increases the mixing depth and wind gusts increase as well.

This will allow for blowing snow to start to develop across the
area.

All in all, a very dry snow seems likely for the northern 2 3 of the
forecast area. This will result in far greater accumulations than
would normally be seen with the amount of QPF the models are putting
out. Further, mechanical forcing trends suggest some northward
deviation in the best forcing from the 00z guidance. With
microphysical concerns playing a large role and a quite favorable
synoptic pattern at play, explicit model QPF will likely be a less
important factor in the forecast than would normally be the case.

This is especially true in the northeast lake effect band areas in
niagara, orleans, and monroe counties. That said, 7-12 inches in
jefferson county will quickly transition into a swath of a foot or
more from the tug hill across the southern lake ontario shore with
an additional swath across the southern tier and northern finger
lakes. The lowest totals outside the st. Lawrence valley in the area
will likely be in the immediate buffalo area, with roughly 8-12
inches expected at this time.

Sunday night through Monday night... Bitterly cold conditions will be
the main impact. There also will be areas of lingering lake effect
snows south of the lakes, with additional accumulation of around two
to four inches. The combination of falling temperatures and
persistent winds will result in wind chills as low as -15f to -25f
south of lake ontario, and -35f east of lake ontario. High pressure
will build across the region Monday night, with light winds but very
cold temperatures. The forecast hedges below model consensus for
lows Monday night which will be below zero in most areas. Lows east
of lake ontario should average 10 to 20 below with locally colder
readings possible.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Tuesday high pressure over the eastern great lakes will drift off
the mid atlantic coast by afternoon. Enough subsidence and dry air
should remain in place to keep precipitation from the next system to
our west through early evening, with mid high clouds thickening from
west to east. Increasing southwest winds will allow temperatures to
recover nicely after a frigid night Monday night. Expect highs in
the upper 20s to lower 30s across western ny by the end of the day,
and upper teens to lower 20s east of lake ontario.

Tuesday night and Wednesday low pressure will move from the central
great lakes to quebec, with a trailing cold front moving across the
eastern great lakes. Model guidance diverges with respect to the
timing and strength of this low, and subsequently the thermal
profiles. The 12z ECMWF trended colder overall, with just a very
brief warm-up on Wednesday. The GFS and gem have a more robust,
longer lasting warm-up. For now, continued with the likely pops with
snow Tuesday night changing to rain briefly in many areas Wednesday,
before going back to snow showers Wednesday night.

Model guidance diverges significantly by Thursday and Friday. A
significant southern stream wave is apparent in all the models, but
its subsequent track is widely variant among the various guidance
packages. The GFS keeps this system suppressed, moving off the mid
atlantic coast and not impacting our area at all. The gem is the
farthest north and west, bringing another rain event to our region
Thursday and Thursday night. Meanwhile the new 12z ECMWF takes a
strong surface low over central or eastern ny, which would produce
another significant snow event (with a period of rain east of lake
ontario). Given the model swings we have seen for later next week,
expect more big changes in the guidance for several more days before
they settle on a common solution. Behind this system, model and
ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement on another surge of
arctic air moving into our region next weekend.

Aviation 21z Friday through Wednesday
Weak surface high pressure will move east across the region tonight.

This will allow existing ifr and MVFR CIGS to improve a little,
while winds slowly veer from NW to N and then NE ahead of a
significant system centered over ky by 18z Saturday. Light snow and
ifr will spread back across wny ahead of this system during
Saturday, but heavy snow with lifr will likely not arrive until
after 00z.

Outlook...

Saturday night... Lifr with heavy snow.

Sunday... Widespread ifr with snow and blowing snow.

Sunday night and Monday... Local ifr in lake effect snow showers
southeast of the lakes.

Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday... MVFR or ifr likely with rain and or snow.

Marine
West to northwest winds will increase some to low end small craft
advisory levels along the southern shoreline of lake ontario this
into the evening. Winds and waves will diminish a little this
evening, but more noticeably veer around to northeast between a
surface high over canada and a nearing storm system across the mid-
mississippi valley. These shifting winds will create a chop on the
lake waters, with waves 2-3 feet.

This strong storm system will pass south of the lakes this weekend,
with strong northeast winds backing to northwest through the weekend
and into next week with high end small craft advisories for all
marine zones on both lakes and the niagara river. Increased wave
heights along with very cold temperatures could yield freezing spray
on the lakes with this system Saturday through Sunday night.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter storm warning from 4 pm Saturday to 6 pm est Sunday for
nyz006>008.

Wind chill watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon
for nyz006>008.

Winter storm warning from 1 pm Saturday to 6 pm est Sunday for
nyz002>005-011-013-014.

Winter storm warning from 10 am Saturday to 6 pm est Sunday
for nyz001-010-012-019>021-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 am Saturday to 4 pm est Sunday
for lez020.

Small craft advisory from 5 am Saturday to 11 pm est
Sunday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory from 10 am Saturday to 4 pm est
Sunday for loz030.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
loz043-044.

Small craft advisory from 1 am Saturday to 1 pm est Monday
for loz042>044.

Small craft advisory from 5 am Saturday to 7 pm est Sunday
for loz045.

Synopsis... Sw
near term... Sw
short term... Fries sw
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Zaff
marine... Sw thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 10 mi51 min W 8.9 G 13 32°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 11 mi51 min 32°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 60 mi51 min W 21 G 26 32°F 1018.5 hPa (+2.0)26°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
Last
24hr
SE10
G13
E8
G13
SE10
G18
SE11
G16
S9
G14
SE11
G18
SE12
G18
SE11
G16
SE11
G15
S10
G16
SE9
G13
S7
G15
SE11
G16
SE10
G14
S6
S9
G12
S10
G16
S9
G12
W14
G17
W16
NW13
G16
W18
G24
W15
G22
W21
G26
1 day
ago
NW25
NW24
NW18
G22
NW16
N13
G17
N10
G15
E5
G8
E3
G8
E7
SE6
SE5
G11
SE5
SE6
G10
SE4
SE9
SE10
G14
SE9
G14
S8
S8
G11
S8
G11
SE8
G13
SE9
G12
SE7
G12
SE9
G12
2 days
ago
SW8
G11
SW8
G12
S8
G14
SW7
G10
S7
G10
S9
G14
S10
G15
SW7
G13
W18
G30
SW15
G31
SW13
G18
S16
G20
S15
G21
SW13
G19
SW15
G23
SW11
G17
W12
G19
SW14
G20
W25
G39
W28
G37
W29
G36
W30
W29
W23
G32

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY6 mi57 minW 99.00 miLight Snow33°F23°F66%1019.9 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
Last 24hrSE7SE8SE6SE8SE5SE3S3W3S4S5S5S4S4SW6SW6W5W9W10W9W11W14
G20
W12W13W9
1 day agoNW12NW10NW7W8W5W5W5W5W3W3CalmW4SW3SW4CalmS4S3SE6S6SE9SE10SE11SE9SE8
2 days agoSW12SW14W11SW11SW16
G22
W12W12
G22
W17
G27
W17
G23
W19SW12W14W16
G22
W15
G22
W16
G23
W14
G21
W15
G20
W15
G26
W18
G25
NW21
G31
NW21
G31
NW15
G28
NW16
G25
NW16
G21

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (17,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.