Sunday, July23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brighton, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 8:42PM Sunday July 23, 2017 2:54 AM EDT (06:54 UTC) Moonrise 5:06AMMoonset 7:54PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 145 Am Edt Sun Jul 23 2017
Overnight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the morning...then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast. Showers and Thunderstorms in the evening...then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet...then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning...then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening...then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 73 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201707230900;;685297 FZUS51 KBUF 230545 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 145 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-230900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brighton, NY
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location: 43.12, -77.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 230619
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
219 am edt Sun jul 23 2017

Synopsis
Through Monday... Low pressure will slowly track east along a nearly
stationary frontal boundary draped across our region... And this will
set the stage for periodic showers and thunderstorms. Some of these
could produce locally heavy rainfall... With a few of the storms also
possibly becoming strong to severe across western new york Sunday
afternoon and evening. Following the passage of this system... Canadian
high pressure will then build across our region Tuesday... Ushering
in a return to mainly dry and cooler weather along with much more
comfortable humidity levels.

Near term through today
Overnight we can expect rather uneventful conditions to persist
across the region... With just some spotty light showers here and
there out ahead of a slowly approaching weak wave of low pressure...

and attendant surface front. Overnight lows will generally range
through the lower half of the 60s.

On Sunday a potent shortwave across the western great lakes will
deepen a surface low across the central great lakes. This surface
low will push the stalled frontal boundary to our south a bit
farther northward, allowing for our region to tap into a more
unstable airmass of 1000 to 1500 j kg. The combination of increased
instability, and 0-6 km bulk shear magnitude increasing to around 40
knots will support thunderstorms... Of which some may increase in
strength to strong to severe. Primary concerns will be damaging
winds from the storms, though CAPE profiles suggest that hail will
also be possible.

Short term tonight through Tuesday night
A mid-level trough axis over lake huron will slowly pivot across the
eastern great lakes Sunday night through Monday driving a surface
low and associated low-level frontal zone moisture axis across
western and central new york. This will all come together to produce
a fairly widespread band or bands of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night into Monday from the genesee valley east into central
ny as the low shifts east before redeveloping off the coast of cape
cod later Monday. There remains some concern for potential hazardous
weather with these storms. Pwats ahead of the low are forecast to
rise to around 1.5 inches or near the 90th percentile of pwat
climatology which may bring a risk of heavy downpours and flooding
especially if storms train along any surface boundaries. There is
also a lingering risk for severe winds during the evening hours with
any organized storms Sunday evening where GFS forecasts bulk shear
of 40-50kts. Veering vertical wind profiles in forecast soundings
may even bring about another isolated tornado risk. The most
favorable CAPE surface based instability will be Monday afternoon
across central ny. SPC has included a slight marginal risk area for
Sunday with marginal risk area on Monday in our forecast area. These
potential hazards will also continue to be highlighted in the
hazardous weather outlook.

By Monday night the consensus of the models shows the low positioned
off the new england coast with high pressure in the process of
building back across the great lakes. There will also be a
developing cool northerly flow on the backside of the coastal low.

Pops continue to show a trend of showers tapering off from west to
east overnight leaving dry weather across wny.

Tuesday and Tuesday night will feature dry and quiet weather as high
pressure settles over western new york. Skies will feature
increasing clearing from west to east as the moisture axis exits off
the coast with the low.

Temperatures will run cooler Monday and Tuesday topping out below
normal late july levels. Highs run generally reach into the lower to
mid 70s in the cool northerly flow on the backside of the passing
low along with 850mb temps dipping to 10-12c in the passing trough.

Overnight lows will bottom out in the 60s Sunday night then slip to
50s Monday and Tuesday nights with cool and dry northerly flow.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Upper level ridging will crest across the region on Wednesday,
providing for one more fair weather day for western and north-
central new york, with seasonable temperatures in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. After a couple of cooler nights earlier in the week,
mugginess will return Wednesday night as surface high pressure moves
off the new england coast, opening up the lower great lakes to
warm and moist southerly flow. This will be reflected in lows
that will run in the mid to upper 60s. Along with this increase
in humidity, we will see a chance of showers and thunderstorms
towards daybreak, as a prominent upper level trough approaches
the area.

Model consensus continues to indicate the passage of the
aforementioned upper level trough on Thursday. This should result in
widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday evening
as a cold front sags south across the area. A secondary reinforcing
shortwave may end up aiding in the development of diurnal showers
Friday afternoon, particularly across the southern half of the
forecast area, closer to the hung up frontal boundary. Nominally
cooler air filtering in behind the front may yield a milder day
Friday, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
For the most part... The overnight hours will continue to feature
vfr conditions under increasing amounts of mid and high cloud
cover... With just a few spotty light showers dampening otherwise
dry conditions. The exception to this will be found across the
western southern tier (including kjhw) where low level moisture
advecting in from the ohio valley will lead to the development
of lifr ifr stratus... With this possibly lowering enough to
lead to the development of fog ifr visibilities across the
higher terrain.

On Sunday... Any lifr ifr in low stratus fog over the southern tier
should improve back to MVFRVFR during the morning. Otherwise...

approaching low pressure and increasing diurnally-driven instability
will lead to the development of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms across far western new york by early afternoon... With
these then becoming more widespread and pushing eastward across the
finger lakes and into central new york through the rest of the
afternoon and Sunday night. Expect general MVFR toVFR conditions
out ahead of the convection to deteriorate to ifr MVFR within the
showers and thunderstorms... With some of the storms capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall. In addition... A few stronger to
severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will also be possible
across western new york Sunday afternoon and evening.

As Sunday night progresses... Expect flight conditions to lower
to a mix of MVFR (lower elevations) to ifr (higher terrain) as
low level moisture increases across our region... And leads to
the development of fairly widespread lower ceilings.

Outlook...

Monday and Monday night... Showers and scattered thunderstorms
should gradually diminish from west to east... Though widespread
ifr MVFR ceilings will likely persist in lingering lower stratus
stratocumulus.

Tuesday... Improvement toVFR with any leftover scattered showers
ending early.

Wednesday...VFR.

Wednesday night and Thursday... MainlyVFR with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
An easterly wind will increase to 15 to 20 knots on lake ontario
Sunday, though the strongest winds should remain out over the open
waters of the lakes. These winds will bring waves on the western
shores of lake ontario to near 4 feet on lake ontario late Sunday
afternoon and through the evening hours. Scattered thunderstorms are
also expected over area waterways Sunday which could produce small
hail and locally higher winds and waves.

Tides coastal flooding
As low pressure approaches our region Sunday and Sunday evening...

a low-level easterly to east-northeasterly flow will briefly
strengthen across lake ontario with this potentially
strengthening enough to generate some lakeshore flooding
concerns along the south shore of the lake from roughly niagara
county east to monroe county. Latest guidance keeps the
strength of the winds just below a critical threshold to drive
waves high enough for the issuance of a lakeshore flood watch at
this point but will continue to be closely monitored.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Church jjr thomas
short term... Smith
long term... Wood
aviation... Jjr
marine... Church thomas
tides coastal flooding... Jjr smith


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 10 mi55 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 71°F 1009.5 hPa (-0.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 11 mi55 min 68°F 1008.6 hPa (-0.8)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 36 mi65 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 72°F 73°F1008.8 hPa (-0.4)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 60 mi55 min E 2.9 G 5.1 67°F 1008.5 hPa (-0.7)64°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY6 mi61 minESE 610.00 miOvercast70°F64°F84%1008.6 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3CalmCalmSW3CalmSW5SW5W3SW3CalmCalmCalmS3SE5CalmE6NE10E6E5SE3E3E5SE5E6
1 day agoW6W5W3SW4SW5W5W4W56N5NW8NW4N8NW7NW10NW10NW8N6CalmCalmNW3W4W4SW4
2 days agoW4SW3SW4SW4SW4SW5W5SW5SW5W4NE17N10E5SW6S9SW11SW10SW5W3N3CalmCalmCalmSW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.