Saturday, March23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brighton, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 7:26PM Saturday March 23, 2019 1:16 PM EDT (17:16 UTC) Moonrise 9:44PMMoonset 7:55AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 431 Am Edt Sat Mar 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday morning...
Today..Northwest winds to 30 knots becoming west. Sunny. Waves 6 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Clear. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening, then a chance of snow and rain showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 36 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201903231500;;786896 FZUS51 KBUF 230831 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 431 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-231500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brighton, NY
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location: 43.12, -77.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 231445
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1045 am edt Sat mar 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure centered over the ohio valley will supply us with
plenty of bright sunshine today... Although it will be chilly for
this point in march with high temperatures mainly in the 30s. It
will become notably milder on Sunday with partial sunshine helping
the mercury push well into the 40s and 50s. A cold front pushing
through the region Sunday night will then bring a quick end to the
warmer weather while helping to generate some rain and wet snow
showers. The first half of the new work week will feature below
normal temperatures despite a wealth of sunshine.

Near term through tonight
A large surface high centered over the ohio valley will combine with
steadily rising heights, increasing subsidence and most
importantly, an influx of much drier air, to support plenty of
bright sunshine today. This will help take the edge off an
otherwise brisk and chilly early spring day, as h85 temps
averaging -6c will prevent most areas from climbing out of the
30s. The relatively tight gradient between the aforementioned
high over the ohio valley and an exiting storm over the canadian
maritimes will help to produce wind gusts to 30 mph at times.

Tonight will be clear and cold across our forecast area, as the
center of the surface high will move across the carolinas. The
mercury will drop through the 20s, with fairly widespread teens
expected across the southern tier as well as in lewis county.

Short term Sunday through Tuesday night
On Sunday our region will lie under the influence of weak surface-
based ridging... In between a cold front dropping southeastward
across ontario and quebec provinces... And a frontal system pushing
eastward across the ohio valley. The resultant compensating
subsidence across our region should yield a mainly dry day... With
just an outside chance of a shower sneaking into the north country
late. Otherwise plentiful sunshine to start the day will give way to
increasing mid and high level cloudiness during the afternoon. As
for temps... 850 mb readings within a few degrees either side of zero
degrees celsius will allow for highs to reach into the lower to mid
50s away from any lake influences... With cooler readings in the 40s
found east of lake ontario... And in areas immediately northeast of
lake erie which will be subjected to a southwesterly flow of lake-
chilled air.

Sunday night the two aforementioned weather systems will converge
upon our region... With the cold frontal boundary arriving first
and likely helping to shunt the bulk of the moisture and lift
attendant to the ohio valley system to our south. Nonetheless...

the combined influence of these systems should still yield a chance
of some light rain and snow showers areawide... Which is reflected
in the forecast by a mix of chance pops. Given the light and mixed
nature of the precipitation... Any snowfall accums should remain
rather light and on the order of a half inch or less. Otherwise...

cold air advection setting up in the wake of the cold front will
send overnight lows down into the mid to upper 20s south of lake
ontario... And into the teens to lower 20s across the north country.

On Monday model guidance has trended faster with the departure of
the cold front and further south with the track of the ohio valley
system... Which should come as no surprise given the large strong
area of high pressure and much colder drier air building in behind
the frontal boundary. This should translate into a mainly dry day
across our region... With any lingering early morning cloudiness
giving way to considerable amounts of sunshine by afternoon. Given
the much colder airmass featuring temperatures of -9c to -13c...

afternoon highs will only range from the lower 30s across the north
country to the mid and upper 30s elsewhere.

Monday night through Tuesday night will then be dominated by the
above mentioned expansive surface ridge... The center of which
will build from the upper great lakes Monday night to new
england by late Tuesday night. Strong subsidence and plentiful
dry air attendant to this feature will help to ensure dry
weather throughout this 36 hour period... Along with mainly
clear mostly sunny skies. With the spine of the ridge not
sliding off to our east until Tuesday night temperatures will
remain below average... Particularly at night when excellent
conditions for radiational cooling will be in place. This will
yield lows in the upper single digits to teens Monday night and
the teens to lower 20s Tuesday night... With daytime highs in the
30s sandwiched in between on Tuesday.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
This period looks to feature mainly dry weather and a steady
day-to-day warming trend... As our region will become situated
in between strong high pressure that will take up residence along
or just offshore of the atlantic coastline... And an elongated
frontal zone developing from the southern plains states to
southern canada. This will place our area within a region of
deepening south-southwesterly flow... Which will help to pump
plenty of gomex-based mild air northward and into our region.

Given current 850 mb temperature forecasts from the GFS and ecmwf...

we can expect daytime highs to recover back into the 40s and lower
50s Wednesday... Well into the 50s in most areas on Thursday... And
finally into the lower to mid 60s on Friday.

With respect to precipitation potential... The only mentionable
chance of such looks to hold off until Friday... When the closer
approach of the above mentioned frontal zone may be just enough
to eke out a few scattered rain showers. This said... The bulk
of the day would be more than likely to remain rain free.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
WidespreadVFR conditions are expected through this afternoon.

High pressure centered over the ohio valley will allow for a bit
of a pressure gradient across the area is afternoon as low
pressure retreats through the canadian maritimes with westerly
surface winds gusting to 30 knots at times.

The winds will subside this evening with clear skies remaining
intact for all TAF sites for through the overnight. The only
potential issue tonight will be some marginal low level wind shear
at both kroc and kart, where westerly winds of 40 knots will be
found just a couple thousand feet off the deck.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR.

Sunday night and Monday...VFR MVFR with a chance of rain and
snow showers.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

Marine
A relatively tight surface pressure gradient between an exiting
storm system over the canadian maritimes and high pressure over the
ohio valley will keep small craft advisory conditions in place
throughout the lower great lakes through at least this afternoon...

with winds and waves not significantly subsiding on lake ontario
until later tonight and early Sunday.

A cold front will drop south across the region Sunday evening. Light
winds in the vcnty of the front will become northerly in its wake
and freshen to near small craft advisory levels overnight and early
Monday morning. Winds are likely to continue to increase on lake
ontario during the course of Monday... Possibly leading to another
round of small craft advisories.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez020.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for
loz030.

Small craft advisory until 9 am edt Sunday for loz043-044.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for
loz042.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Sunday for loz045.

Synopsis... Rsh
near term... Rsh tma
short term... Jjr
long term... Jjr
aviation... Rsh tma
marine... Rsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 10 mi16 min WNW 19 G 27 29°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 11 mi28 min 30°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 60 mi28 min W 25 G 32 27°F 1019.4 hPa15°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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W21
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SE10
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SE11
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W9
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S10
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N4
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E5
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S6
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SE14
G21
S15
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S12
G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY6 mi22 minWNW 18 G 2310.00 miFair and Breezy32°F12°F43%1021.2 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW12
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--NW11
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1 day agoS6SE5CalmSE9S8S8S7--N5NE3W3W3W6NW6NW8NW10
G19
NW7NW7NW10NW11NW13NW10NW12NW12
2 days agoS8SW5SW8
G17
CalmCalmNE8E6E7E4SE3S4W6SW4S4S3S6SW9
G16
SE7SE6S5S11S10S9S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.