Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 7:48 PM   Moonset 5:40 AM

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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 505 Am Cdt Tue Apr 23 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening - .
Today - Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then rising to 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Chance of showers early in the afternoon. Rain showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late morning and afternoon. Tonight - Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots veering north 15 to 25 knots in the late evening and overnight. Gusts up to 30 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms through around midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 6 to 8 feet. Wednesday - North wind 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then veering northeast early in the afternoon easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny in the morning then clearing. Waves 6 to 8 feet subsiding to 4 to 6 feet. Wednesday night - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight, then becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 230934 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 434 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty southwest to west winds and very low relative humidity values this afternoon.

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early this evening. Small hail and gusty winds are possible in the stronger storms.

- Potential for freeze conditions later tonight, and frost/freeze conditions likely later Wednesday night.

- More active pattern with thunderstorm potential at times Friday into the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM
Issued 434 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Today through Wednesday:

Showers have moved east of the area, with some middle to high clouds lingering in its wake. Gusty southwest winds with fairly deep mixing should continue into this afternoon. Dew points should drop to or remain in the 30s this afternoon, which should bring low to very low relative humidity values. See Fire Weather section for more information.

Temperatures should rise into the upper 60s over most of the area, despite middle to high clouds at times. The mild start to the day should allow these highs to be reached. There may be some breaks in these clouds at times.

Latest CAMs and deterministic models are bringing the cold front somewhat faster through the area this afternoon, exiting to the southeast by early this evening. There is still good synoptic upward vertical motion with this and the 500 mb shortwave trough shifting through the region.

Dew points are one caveat, as mentioned previously should be in the 30s this afternoon, which should lead to any shower or thunderstorm be rather high-based. Still expecting scattered areal coverage of showers and some storms by middle afternoon into early evening.

Dry air below these bases on forecast soundings suggest gusty winds may occur with stronger storms, and small hail with up to 500 J/kg of elevated CAPE in a rather strongly-sheared environment. Best potential for these would be in southeast parts of the area, where the cold front will exit by early evening and have a little more instability to work with.

Once showers and storms exit the area, a secondary backdoor cold front will sweep southwestward across the area by early to middle evening. This will bring the strong cold air advection and gusty north to northeast winds into the area, and should help scour out the clouds. Lake effect clouds should develop and may linger for lakeshore areas tonight into Wednesday morning.

Colder lows in the upper 20s to around 30 north and lower to middle 30s south are forecast for later tonight. Will let day shift have another look at this forecast and determine if any freeze headlines will be needed for later tonight.

High pressure working southeast into the region will bring dry and cool conditions for Wednesday, with weakening winds.

Wood

LONG TERM
Issued 434 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Wednesday night through Monday:

High pressure should slowly shift east of the region Wednesday night into Thursday, with dry conditions lingering as winds shift to the southeast.

Ensembles suggest an active weather pattern for Friday into the upcoming weekend, with one low pressure system tracking northeast from the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest Friday into Saturday. Another low on its heels then may shift along a similar path for Sunday into Monday. There is more uncertainty with the details with the second low track.

Overall, it looks like rounds of showers and thunderstorms should occur for at least portions of Friday into the weekend.
It is still too early to determine if strong to severe storms may occur, but will be something to watch. In addition, most ensemble members have solid rainfall occurring, so another thing to watch. Warm temperatures and perhaps some more humid air may move into the area by Saturday and linger longer. Gusty winds may occur at times, as each low pressure system moves through.

Wood

AVIATION
Issued 434 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Low level wind shear conditions may linger until around 12Z Tuesday across area terminals, until southwest winds around 2000 feet AGL start to weaken somewhat. Gusty southwest winds are expected again this morning, becoming west this afternoon.

Middle to high clouds should linger at times today, with some breaks. Scattered showers and some thunderstorms should develop by middle afternoon and linger into early evening, as a cold front moves through. Small hail and gusty winds may occur with any storms. Ceilings should remain above 5000 feet AGL with this activity, with locally reduced visibility in any storms.

Winds shift northwest behind the cold front, then north behind a backdoor cold front shifting southwest across the area by early to middle evening. Gusty north winds are then expected into the overnight hours, before weakening gradually on Wednesday. Lake effect clouds with ceilings down to 2500 feet AGL or so may affect Milwaukee and Kenosha tonight into Wednesday morning.

Wood

MARINE
Issued 434 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Gusty southwest winds will persist today, as low pressure around 29.5 inches moves from Lake Superior to Lake Huron. The low will bring a cold front southeast through the region today into this evening. Showers and some thunderstorms are forecast with the frontal passage.

Expect gusty west winds to turn north later this afternoon into this evening, from north to south across Lake Michigan. A period of north gales are expected tonight behind the cold front across the open waters, and a Gale Warning has been issued. Building waves are expected as well tonight.

A Small Craft Advisory continues for the nearshore waters today into Wednesday, for gusty winds through the period and building waves tonight into Wednesday morning. A few north gales may occur tonight.

Winds and waves will gradually lighten up Wednesday into Thursday, as high pressure around 30.4 inches moves southeast across the region.

South winds will then increase again Friday and remain gusty into the upcoming weekend, as multiple low pressure systems move northeast through the region. Some periods of gale force gusts may occur over the open waters, with winds and waves possibly reaching Small Craft Advisory levels in the nearshore waters.

Wood

FIRE WEATHER
Issued 434 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Gusty southwest winds with fairly deep mixing to 6000 to 7000 feet AGL should continue this afternoon. Dew points should drop to or remain in the 30s this afternoon, which should bring low to very low relative humidity values of 25 to 35 percent over the area. Given the scattered shower and storm activity by middle afternoon, will not issue a Special Weather Statement for elevated fire weather conditions. Still, any burning should be done with caution with the gusty winds and low relative humidity values.

May see very low relative humidity values of 20 to 30 percent on Wednesday afternoon, though winds will be light. Vales in the 25 to 35 percent range may linger on Thursday afternoon, before a wet period arrives for Friday into the upcoming weekend.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Gale Warning
LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ868...7 PM Tuesday to 4 AM Wednesday.

Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777- LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...10 PM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM Wednesday.

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