Thursday, February21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Butler, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 5:32PM Thursday February 21, 2019 3:37 PM CST (21:37 UTC) Moonrise 9:15PMMoonset 9:10AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 305 Pm Cst Thu Feb 21 2019
.gale watch in effect from late Saturday night through late Sunday night...
Through early evening..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..West wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then veering northwest after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..West wind 5 knots backing south late in the morning, then becoming southeast early in the afternoon becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves nearly calm.
Friday night..East wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then veering southeast after midnight. Partly cloudy through around midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots. Light freezing rain and snow likely in the morning. Rain likely through the day. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ644 Expires:201902221000;;299608 FZUS53 KMKX 212105 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 305 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-221000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Butler, WI
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location: 43.12, -88.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 212128
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
328 pm cst Thu feb 21 2019

Short term
Tonight and Friday... Forecast confidence is high.

Surface high pressure will move over region during the next 24
hours. Mainly clear skies will persist into much of tonight, with
a gradual increase in mid high level cloud coverage late tonight
into tomorrow. Given clear skies, light winds and mainly clear
skies, temperatures will be tricky tonight. Have gone with lows
around 10 (give or take) but valleys and sheltered areas can
easily drop well into the single digits at any given point.

Little change to the forecast for Friday with a mix of mid high
clouds and sun. Temperatures should warm into the low mid 30s in
most locations.

Long term
Main forecast challenge is the strong storm system for this
weekend.

Saturday and Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Robust upper level wave over the four corners region will quickly
move northeast and become negatively tilted as it moves out of
the southern plains. Guidance is in general agreement that the
850mb and surface low will move over southern wisconsin. Precise
track will be a defining feature of this event. The 12z suite of
model output features only small deviations in track, but even a
small deviation will have substantial consequences on
precipitation type. Bottom line, we will have to watch the low
track very carefully with this system.

Have sided with the ECMWF gfs for the passage of this system,
which moves the low from top to sbm in about a 12 hour period from
18z Saturday to 06z Sunday. Initial wave of moisture late Friday
night into the daylight hours of Saturday morning will encounter a
rather potent dry layer. Precip onset has been delayed a few hours
and the influence of this dry layer in delaying onset even further
needs to be monitored.

Temperature profiles Saturday morning support initial freezing
rain (maybe a little sleet), though QPF amounts are generally
light with pockets of higher amounts. The GFS qpf has been
discounted as an outlier for 12-18 utc Saturday. Light qpf
continues through Saturday afternoon as temperatures warm to at or
above freezing. Current freezing rain estimates are between 0.05"
and 0.15" for Saturday, and will likely need to consider a winter
weather advisory for slick spots on area roads. Given the
temperatures going into the event, the higher Sun angle of late
february and mainly light rates, the accumulation may be most
noticeable on elevated objects.

The main push of moisture arrives Saturday evening. Temperature
profiles look to be at or above freezing for nearly the entire
area. One area of uncertainty and concern is from (roughly) lone
rock through the dells. If they are unable to warm above freezing,
there is a risk of additional ice accumulation. There is ample
moisture availability, so there will be a period of moderate to
heavy rainfall rates. The good news is this system is progressive.

As it moves through overnight Saturday night, the dry slot
overtakes a good part of the area and precipitation rates will
lessen considerably. A brief period of light snow is expected as
the upper wave moves through. A little too early to get into
amounts, but it appears any accumulation should be on the light
side (an inch or two from lone rock to fond du lac and points
northwest).

Sunday will be raw. Light snow will be winding down in the
morning, but winds will be on the increase. The surface low will
be deepening as it moves through and strong gusty northwest winds
are expected. Expected sustained NW winds of around 30mph with
gusts to around 45mph. Wind advisory may be needed for a good
portion of the area.

Bottom line with this system... Initial freezing rain Saturday
morning changes to rain Saturday afternoon and evening. Ice
accumulation on the order of 0.10" (give or take). Rain changes
to snow from west to east overnight Saturday night, ending Sunday
morning with only minor accumulation expected. Heaviest rainfall
Saturday evening. Runoff will lead to flooding in low spots and a
within bank rise on most area rivers. Highest area of uncertainty
is lnr to dll where temperatures may struggle to warm above
freezing (depends on surface low track).

Monday onward... Forecast confidence is medium to low.

A pattern shift to a more zonal northwesterly flow is expected.

This will result in a decidedly colder pattern. Another upper wave
passage is expected in the Tue Wed time frame, but it will have
far less moisture to work with. Bottom line, well below average
temperatures.

Aviation(21z tafs)
Vfr conditions are expected for the next 24 or so hours. High
pressure moving over the region will result in light and variable
winds tonight through much of Friday. Mainly clear skies are
expected today and this evening, with the occasional patch of
cirrus here and there. Mid and high level moisture begins to
increase overnight tonight and especially Friday. Looking beyond
the TAF cycle, the weekend weather conditions look active as a
strong storm system moves overhead.

Marine
Lake ice...

a clear satellite view of lake michigan showed a narrow and rather
scattered axis of lake ice pushing off the western shore of the
lake, out into the open waters. This should mostly dissipate as
winds increase this weekend.

Expect light winds across lake michigan through Friday as high
pressure drifts across the great lakes. A major storm system will
then begin to organize and head toward the great lakes this
weekend. East to southeast winds will begin to increase Friday
night, remaining elevated through Saturday. A very intense low
pressure system will track from northern missouri Saturday evening
to northern lake michigan by sunrise Sunday morning.

Those easterly winds will ramp up very quickly late Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night... Gradually veering to the south
then southwest into early Sunday morning. Gale force southerly
winds are expected by early Sunday morning. Gales will continue
through Sunday night as winds continue to veer to the west on
Sunday and northwest Sunday night. Mariners should be aware that
winds will approach storm force levels at times on Sunday, before
gradually diminishing Sunday night.

Winds should begin to settle down by Monday with no major wind or
wave concerns into the middle of next week.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Gale watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday night
for lmz080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-643>646-669-671-673-
675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-878.

Tonight Friday and aviation marine... Davis
Friday night through Thursday... Gagan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 10 mi47 min W 2.9 G 6 30°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 21 mi57 min W 8 G 13 31°F 1022.7 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 39 mi37 min W 11 G 14 31°F 1022.4 hPa (+0.7)
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 47 mi37 min W 13 G 14 27°F 1022 hPa (+1.5)14°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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NW3
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI1 mi52 minWSW 1210.00 miClear30°F12°F47%1022 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI11 mi52 minWSW 810.00 miClear27°F12°F54%1022 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI13 mi45 minW 910.00 miA Few Clouds32°F14°F47%1023 hPa
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI23 mi42 minW 1010.00 miFair28°F14°F55%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from MWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S9SW10
G19
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G36
W16
G32
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G28
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SW17W14
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W13W15W10W13
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1 day agoCalmS5S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmE5E7E6E9E7
G14
E8E11
G15
E12
G22
E9
G17
E12
G20
E12
G18
SE10
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S6
2 days agoN5NW6NW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5W3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.