Tuesday, October24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
York Harbor, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 5:46PM Tuesday October 24, 2017 7:13 AM EDT (11:13 UTC) Moonrise 11:29AMMoonset 9:12PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 623 Am Edt Tue Oct 24 2017
.gale warning in effect from 5 pm edt this afternoon through Wednesday morning...
Today..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt this afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft this afternoon. Showers likely, mainly this morning. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft after midnight. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain with a chance of tstms after midnight. Areas of fog. Some tstms may produce gusty winds after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..S winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft. A chance of tstms in the morning. Rain. Some tstms may produce gusty winds in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Fri night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 623 Am Edt Tue Oct 24 2017
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Strengthening southerly winds will be the case today and tonight as a cold front approaches from the west, with gales likely. The front will slowly cross the region from west to east Wednesday. Low pressure may form along the front on Thursday and move northward across the waters through Thursday night. A ridge of high pressure will build over the region on Friday and will shift offshore on Saturday before the next low pressure system approaches from the southwest late in the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near York Harbor, ME
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location: 43.13, -70.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 241025
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
625 am edt Tue oct 24 2017

Synopsis
A slow moving cold front will approach from the west today. The
front will slowly cross the region from west to east late
tonight through Wednesday with the attendant threat for heavy
rain. Low pressure may form along the front on Thursday
prolonging the rainfall. A ridge of high pressure will build
over the region on Friday and will shift offshore on Saturday
before the next low pressure system approaches from the
southwest late in the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
625 am update... Very few changes to the overall picture of the
forecast. Have adjusted pop and wx slightly based on latest
trends in observational and mesoscale model data. A warm and
humid day will be on tap with showers from time to time. Winds
will become increasingly gusty as the day progresses.

5 am update... Have updated the forecast for a few items. 1)
cancel the dense fog advisory as increasing low level jet is
aided in scouring out the fog. 2) increase temperatures a degree
or two for today, and 3) add higher pops across southeast zones
for early this morning based on latest radar trends.

Previously...

after weeks of warm and benign october weather, things are going
to change for the wetter here today through midweek. A strong
upper level trough and attendant cold front will approach from
the west today and only slowly move eastward across northern new
england through Thursday.

Forcing for ascent will be fairly minimal for much of today as
the dynamics of the system hang back to the west. However,
moistening southerly flow in the midst of a gradually
strengthening low level jet will allow for periods of
showers rain today. This will especially be the case along south
and southeast facing slopes of the mountains where moist upslope
flow will wring out of the moisture. In the meantime (early this
morning) locally dense fog will continue for the morning
commute, especially coastal and central maine.

As mentioned above, the low level jet will increase today as the
pressure gradient tightens between the approaching front to the
west and strong sfc high pressure departing to our east. We may
be able to realize some sfc-based mixing this afternoon with a
little heating, and this may allow some gusts between 30-40 mph.

However, widespread wind advisory-criteria winds gusts are not
expected at this time. Even still, a few downed trees and
scattered power outages are expected given our past history with
sub-advisory winds.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
Cold front knocks on our western doorstep early this evening. A
relatively narrow band of convective rainfall with some embedded
thunder should should move into the ct river valley zones
between 00z and 03z. With high pwat air mass streaming
northward ahead of the front, heavy downpours will be likely. In
addition, with the aforementioned low level jet in place,
convection may be able to mix down widely scattered damaging
wind gusts. The SPC still has nh in a marginal risk for severe -
and we concur. The threat for heavy rainfall and attendant
threat for strong wind gusts will move eastward overnight,
getting into maine around or shortly after midnight. Minor
urban and small stream flooding will be possible, but the very
dry weather the last few months will likely cap the potential
for anything more significant.

Low pressure is expected to develop along the front to our south
on Wednesday which will prolong the threat for rain throughout
the day.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
A progressive pattern develops through the next week with a
series of deep troughs moving in to out west over the great
lakes.

Wednesday night the slow moving cold front will just be
starting to exit the area to the east as the upper level trough
begins to moderate and move eastwards. By Wednesday night the
eastern portion of the forecast area will continue to see some
heavy rain while to the west the showers will cut off fairly
abruptly as the cold air cuts off the moisture supply. Good
consensus on the timing of the heavy rain departure. A bit more
uncertainty in the rest of the day on Thursday. A wave
develops along the front holding the moisture and rain showers
in the region through Thursday... This may result in rain
pushing back westwards into the northern white mountains for a
portion of the day.

Eventually the front and associated low pressure will depart to
our east. Behind the front winds will come around to northwest.

With the departure of the low level jet wind speeds will be
light but the flow will be enough to keep showers around in the
mountains. Cold air advection will set up as the core of the
upper level low moves over us Thursday night. Temperatures will
be cold enough for snow at the higher elevations, and we may see
snow levels descend as low as 2000ft. Overall the air mass is
borderline for snow so no significant accumulations are
expected.

Friday into Saturday a ridge builds back into the area as
temperatures return to a bit above normal with highs reaching
into the 60s. The ridge will be short lived as the next system
begins to take form for the start of next week. Another deep
trough will dig southwards to our west setting us up for a
repeat of the rain and cold frontal passage for the start of
next week.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term... Any ifr conditions this morning will briefly lift
toVFR early morning. They may oscillate betweenVFR and MVFR
today based on winds and rain coverage. They should lower to ifr
this evening though. A southerly low level jet will strengthen
today which will allow for llws at several terminals by
afternoon. The threat for llws will continue through Wednesday
morning. A few thunderstorms will be possible tonight as a cold
front moves into the region with the attendant threat for
locally strong sfc wind gusts.

Long term... Heavy rain with a departing cold front will leave
the eastern portion of the area in ifr conditions for Wednesday
night. Through the day on Thursday lingering MVFR showers will
hold over the entire region. With all the moisture valley fog
is likely overnight on Thursday into Friday in the ct river
valley as the winds decrease and the surface is able to
decouple. Conditions finally improve toVFR for Friday through
the weekend before the next system impacts the region on Sunday
into Monday.

Marine
Short term... Gales have been posted for the ocean waters as well
as penobscot bay. Will hold with a SCA for casco bay for the
time being. Southerly winds will gradually increase today and
peak tonight into Wednesday morning - with gales expected most
zones during that time.

Long term... With the departure of the front to the east comes
an end to the low level jet and gale conditions. Winds will
be back below small craft by late wedensday although the seas
may take a few more hours to subside. Winds again will again
increase to small craft criteria again as northwesterly cold
advection sets up behind the front on Thursday night into
Friday.

Hydrology
Overall, we are looking at 2-3" of rain across the area between
today and thu. Southeastern slopes of the white mountains could
see local amounts around 4 inches.This should be enough to end
the abnormally dry conditions present across the interior of the
region. Along the coast in the region of moderate drought approx
3-6" is needed to return the palmer drought index to near
normal, so while this storm will certainly help it will likely
not completely erase our water deficit through the midcoast.

Still, with river levels running very low, mainstream flooding
is not expected, but a few flashier basins may reach near flood
stage. In new hampshire, the pemigewasset river at woodstock is
forecast to approach flood stage. Flashier tributaries in the
white mountains may also see sharp rises with the passage of the
front.

However, could see a lot of rain in a short period time as a
line of heavy showers and or thunderstorms moves through late
tonight and Wed morning, and this could lead to some poor
drainage and minor urban flooding due to clogged storm drains or
higher rainfall rates in embedded thunderstorms.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 5 pm edt
Wednesday for anz153.

Gale warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 9 am edt Wednesday
for anz152-154.

Gale warning from midnight tonight to 2 pm edt Wednesday for
anz150-151.

Near term... Ekster
short term... Ekster
long term... Curtis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 11 mi74 min SE 22 G 23 61°F 1017.2 hPa (-1.6)59°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 11 mi89 min ESE 2.9 62°F 1018 hPa60°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 12 mi70 min SSE 14 G 18 60°F 58°F3 ft1018.4 hPa
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 14 mi44 min SSW 4.1 G 6 59°F 55°F1018.1 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 15 mi74 min SSE 2.9 59°F 59°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 34 mi38 min 59°F4 ft
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 38 mi84 min SSE 12 G 16 59°F 56°F2 ft1018.3 hPa (-1.0)58°F
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 42 mi44 min 62°F 55°F1018.2 hPa
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 42 mi70 min SE 16 G 18 62°F 59°F3 ft1016.9 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH10 mi78 minSE 128.00 miOvercast61°F60°F96%1017.5 hPa
Rochester - Skyhaven Airport, NH18 mi23 minSSE 64.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist61°F59°F93%1016.8 hPa
Sanford, Sanford Regional Airport, ME19 mi18 minVar 610.00 miOvercast61°F60°F97%1017.8 hPa

Wind History from PSM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S3S3CalmCalmE5SE5E8E7E4E6E5E4CalmNE3NE3CalmE5SE5SE6SE7SE9SE12SE14
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1 day agoCalmCalmE5NE5NE7NE8NE8--E7----E6NE5NE4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmW6W5W6W6SW8SW7SW8W5CalmS3S3SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmNW3NW3W4W3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Point, York Harbor, Maine
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Fort Point
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Tue -- 02:34 AM EDT     8.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:43 AM EDT     1.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:38 PM EDT     8.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:16 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.37.18.28.37.56.14.22.51.51.323.65.77.58.78.88.16.74.82.81.30.60.92

Tide / Current Tables for Portsmouth Harbor Entrance, New Hampshire Current
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Portsmouth Harbor Entrance
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Tue -- 12:31 AM EDT     1.05 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:19 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:57 AM EDT     -1.61 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:49 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     1.17 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:26 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:23 PM EDT     -1.83 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:30 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
110.70.40.2-0.5-1.3-1.6-1.4-1-0.60.20.91.20.80.40.2-0.4-1.2-1.8-1.7-1.4-1-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.