Saturday, June24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
York Harbor, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:03AMSunset 8:28PM Saturday June 24, 2017 3:11 AM EDT (07:11 UTC) Moonrise 5:46AMMoonset 8:56PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 1208 Am Edt Sat Jun 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until noon edt today...
Rest of tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers with isolated tstms. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Areas of fog in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 1208 Am Edt Sat Jun 24 2017
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A cold front will approach from the west and cross the waters later this morning. A weak ridge of high pressure will build into the region later today and tonight. Another low pressure system will approach from the great lakes on Sunday...passing north of the waters on Sunday night and Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near York Harbor, ME
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location: 43.13, -70.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 240413 aac
afdgyx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service gray me
1213 am edt Sat jun 24 2017

Synopsis
Tropical moisture from the remnants of tropical storm cindy...

and an approaching frontal system will result in showers and
thunderstorms overnight. A series of surface troughs and weak
cold fronts will cross the area this weekend into early next
week bringing us the chance of showers from time to
time... Especially in central and northern areas.

Near term until 6 am this morning
1215 am update...

no major changes to the going forecast at this time. Pops look
good with much of the coastal plain on the dry side and showers
still mainly affecting far northern sections at this time. Area
of convection moving up from the SW will concentrate showers
along a pre-frontal trough and then a cold front bringing
heavier rain to southern areas during the overnight hours.

1020 pm update... Have updated the forecast for current trends in
pops and temperatures. Have blended in the hrrrtl overnight for
pops as well. Mainly dry at the moment but a short wave trough
approaching from the west should result in an increase in
showers as can be currently seen over upstate ny. Have kept
isolated thunder in with weak elevated instability present, but
we don't think thunderstorms will be commonplace overnight. A
few heavy downpours are likely in convection, but widespread
flooding issues do not appear likely at this time due to lack of
organization to the convection. Showers isold thunder should end
from west to east during the early to mid morning hours on
Saturday.

7 pm update... Have updated the forecast a bit, mainly for pops
over the next several hours based on latest trends in radar and
mesoscale model data. For the most part, have relegated pops to
the far west and north for the rest of the evening as points
east remain relatively stable and lack forcing for ascent.

Chances will once again increase after midnight. At this time it
appears the severe potential is done, but heavy rain later
tonight will have to be monitored.

Previously...

high impact weather potential: isolated severe thunderstorms
possible through this evening. Localized flooding also possible.

Very minor coastal flood issues at the time of high tide
tonight.

Current pattern: early afternoon water vapor imagery reveals
deep... Most southwesterly flow entrenched over the northeastern
united states with blended total precipitable water product
showing a warm sector featuring pwats of 1.5 to 2 inches +3 to
4 sigma having overspread all of the northeast except far
northern maine. First band of shower activity along the surface
warm front has pushed north with southern portions of the gyx
forecast area having broken into the warm sector with
temperatures over southern areas racing through the 80s and
even lower 90s with dewpoints rising towards 70f. Surface cold
front is gradually pushing into the eastern great lakes region
with areas to the east of this lacking much in the way of
organized forcing. The result has been isolated scattered
clusters of showers and thunderstorms given modest isentropic
ascent of the warm moist airmass in the warm sector. There are a
few forecast challenges through the near term period.

First... Is whether we can see any significant convection through
the evening. Then... The focus turns to cindy S remnants that
will stream north and east along the approaching cold
front... With at least some potential for a period of heavy rain
later tonight.

Through this evening... Regional radar mosaic continues to paint a
band of showers along the international border close to the low
level warm front. South of this... Activity is much more
isolated... But feel that as the cold front begins to approach from
the west... Showers storms will become more numerous... Particularly
over western areas ct valley . SPC mesoanalysis shows a blossoming
area of 1000 j kg of MLCAPE which... Along with the aforementioned
good pwats should favor precip loading and the potential for gusty
winds... With a few severe storms not out of the question.

Otherwise... A steamy late afternoon as temps over northern areas
continue to climb.

Tonight... Expect scattered to numerous showers thunderstorms
over western areas to gradually progress east... But with the
thunder aspect dwindling some as instability diminishes. High
resolution guidance hrrr and the high res window WRF runs all
keying in on taking cindy moisture over the ohio valley and
having it make a run at at least the southern half of the
forecast area well after midnight and towards daybreak Saturday.

Pwats will increase to well over 200% of normal... With warm
rain processes likely becoming dominant. Thus... See some
potential for heavy rain after midnight as this band of showers
and some embedded thunder pushes in. Expect marine stratus fog
to continue to expand inland and west as the night GOES on.

Temperatures will be very mild ahead of the front... Likely
remaining in the 70s over southern nh and upper 60s to around 70
elsewhere.

See tides coastal flooding section for more details on high tides
tonight.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Sunday
High impact weather potential: locally heavy rain through the mid
morning hours over coastal areas. There is also a moderate risk
of rip currents along the coastline on Saturday.

Saturday: 12z guidance trend has favored a slower arrival of
the surface cold front with the front bisecting the forecast
area at 12z Saturday. South and east of this feature... Showers
with a few embedded rumbles will likely continue through at
least mid morning before the shortwave associated with cindy s
remnants shifts east. Will have to keep an eye on heavy rain
potential... But confidence in any significant issues is not high
given that it looks to be a pretty quick hit... And due to poor
run to run model continuity. The story of the afternoon will be
robust dry advection which should take morning dewpoints that
will be near 70 over southern coastal areas back into the upper
50s by late in the day. T8s remain +12-13c through the
afternoon... Which will allow temperatures to reach well into the
80s south and east of the mountains... With mid upper 70s to the
north.

Saturday night: cold advection continues under northwesterly flow
aloft. Secondary cold front nears the international border during
the evening... And may very well see some evening shower activity
along and ahead of this feature. With a digging shortwave over the
great lakes region... However... Expect heights to actually begin to
rise after midnight. This... Combined with the llevel drying should
slowly bring mountain shower activity to an end as the front stalls
to our north. Expect temperatures able to fall back into the lower
50s in the mountains decent gradient aloft should preclude all but
patchy fog with upper 50s to just above 60 to the south and
east.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
An approaching upper level trough will trigger scattered showers
on Sunday. A few locations over central and northern areas may
be sufficiently destabilized to trigger and thunderstorm or two,
mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours.

A broad long wave trough will remain over the region on Monday,
allowing for more clouds and the chance for a shower across the
region, again mainly during the afternoon and early evening
hours. Lapse rates will not be overly steep during the day,
which may minimize the threat for thunderstorms over the region.

On Tuesday, the long wave trough progresses eastward, allowing
for more in the way of showers and thunderstorms across the
region. The wind flow will shift to the west on Wednesday with
drier air entering the region, allowing for some clearing over
downslope regions. Upslope areas likely to have yet another
shower, mainly diurnally driven.

Towards the end of next week, the 12z model suite diverges
somewhat with low pressure passing through southern new england,
central new england or to the north of new england depending on
the model of choice. This will have large ramifications on
temperatures and weather conditions late in the week next week.

Aviation 04z Saturday through Wednesday
Short term...

summary: a cold front will move through the region tonight with
scattered showers and thunderstorms... Becoming more numerous after
midnight. Drier air moves into the region on Saturday and continues
through Saturday night.

Restrictions:VFR conditions should dominate into this evening all
sites except krkd where marine stratus will bring a prolonged period
of ifr cigs. Approaching cold front and very moist low level
airmass will allow for restrictions to expand... With MVFR ifr
conditions likely after midnight as lingering cindy moisture streams
up ahead of approaching cold front. Expect improvement toVFR on
Saturday as cold front moves south of the region. VFR expected
Saturday night.

Winds: southerly winds strengthen to 10g15kts for this
afternoon... Remaining near 10kts tonight before shifting west
northwest 12g18kts for the day on Saturday and diminishing to less
than 10kts Saturday night.

Llws: 1kft winds to 35kts from the south tonight at rkd above stable
marine layer... Causing a period of llws.

Thunder: can t completely rule out a stray thunderstorm at any of
the terminals through this evening... Although the best chances
synopsis... Will be at hie leb. Tonight... A few thunderstorms
may be embedded with showers that move through the region
associated with the cold front.

Long term... A dry west to northwest flow out of canada will keep
conditionsVFR late this weekend and much of next week. There
will be a chance of afternoon showers and possibly isolated
thunderstorms, with the best chance being across the interior.

Marine
Short term... Scas continue outside the bays for southerly winds
ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will shift westerly
and diminish some on Saturday with waves gradually subsiding.

Winds waves continue to subside on Saturday night.

Long term... Winds will be fairly light through the coming week
in the absence of any strong pressure systems, with the daily
flow being dominated by the sea breeze.

Tides coastal flooding
Astronomical high tides will continue through the weekend with
the possibility of minor flooding particularly with the tide
tonight which is 11:11 pm at portland. The astronomical high
tide will be 11.8 feet with a storm tide overnight likely coming
in between 12.2 and 12.6 feet. With little in the way of wave
action, expect only very minor issues along the coastline.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon edt today for anz150-152-154.

Near term... Hanes
short term... Arnott
long term... Cannon


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 11 mi72 min S 23 G 23 68°F 999.8 hPa (-1.2)67°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 11 mi87 min SSW 1.9 75°F 1001 hPa71°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 12 mi68 min S 12 G 14 59°F 54°F4 ft999.6 hPa
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 14 mi42 min E 1 G 2.9 59°F 53°F999.2 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 15 mi72 min NE 1.9 59°F 59°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 34 mi36 min 59°F4 ft
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 38 mi82 min SSW 12 G 14 59°F 54°F5 ft999.3 hPa (-1.0)59°F
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 42 mi42 min 72°F 53°F998.6 hPa
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 42 mi68 min SSW 12 G 14 64°F 59°F3 ft1000.4 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH10 mi74 minS 410.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F70°F85%999.6 hPa
Rochester - Skyhaven Airport, NH18 mi81 minVar 410.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F69°F85%999.2 hPa
Sanford, Sanford Regional Airport, ME19 mi76 minSSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F70°F88%1000.2 hPa

Wind History from PSM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4W3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmE5E3SE6E6SE12SE8SE9SE10SE9S10S7SW11SW6SW11SW6S4SW7
1 day agoCalmW6W4SW6W8SW8W7W7W6W8W6W7W7SE6SE8SE5CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmSW4S6SW3SW6SW5SW6W9W8
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Tide / Current Tables for Fort Point, York Harbor, Maine
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Fort Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:48 AM EDT     -1.59 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:49 AM EDT     9.78 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:59 PM EDT     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.79.16.43.30.6-1.1-1.6-0.51.84.87.69.39.897.14.51.90.1-0.60.22.45.48.410.5

Tide / Current Tables for Portsmouth Harbor Entrance, New Hampshire Current
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Portsmouth Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:05 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:00 AM EDT     -2.56 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:52 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:56 AM EDT     1.58 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:38 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:20 PM EDT     -2.23 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:59 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:15 PM EDT     1.85 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.1-1.1-2.2-2.6-2.3-1.8-10.21.21.61.310.5-0.4-1.5-2.2-2.1-1.7-101.21.81.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.