Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 3:14 PM   Moonset 4:08 AM

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LHZ443 Port Sanilac To Port Huron Mi- 943 Pm Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Rest of tonight - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 200001 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 801 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool and quiet weather this weekend. Frost is possible Saturday night and Sunday night.

- Next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives Tuesday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Thicker mid clouds are streaming into KMBS at around 6kft this evening. Expect these clouds to spread across terminals tonight with more FEW to SCT coverage across southern terminals. Gusty west winds are expected to decrease by around 02Z, but sustained winds to around 10 knots will hold through tonight. Greater cold air and associated steep low level lapse rates will support a healthy diurnal cumulus response by late tomorrow morning with a BKN VFR deck around 5-6kft developing. Winds again will be out of the west and gusting to around 25 knots.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

DISCUSSION...

Mid level subsidence has fostered a period of respectable post frontal drying which has led to a sunny albeit cool afternoon across Se Mi. A region of high based clouds now over IL/IN will lift northeast across potions of Se Mi this evening. These are the result of some weak mid level isentropic ascent within the entrance region of a mid level jet streak. A decrease in the clouds overnight and a very dry boundary layer will support enough radiational cooling to drop overnight temps into the 30s. A mid level short wave trough axis now over the Dakotas and Minnesota will rotate across Se Mi during the morning on Saturday. Despite the mid level height falls and differential vorticity advection, the column will remain very dry and not supportive of precip. The passage of this wave will drive colder air into Se Mi (850mb temps of -6 to -8c) by afternoon.
Model soundings also indicate steep low level lapse rates with enough moisture to support a healthy cu field during the afternoon.
This will keep afternoon temps in the mid 40s to near 50. With 20 to 25 knot westerly winds in the mixed layer, it will be a rather brisk spring day. The gradient flow will persist through Sat night. Given the degree of cold air, Sat night mins still are forecast to drop into the low to mid 30s.

A polar low is forecast to slide across James Bay into northern Quebec Sunday into Monday. Lower Mi will be within the mid level confluence between this feature and an upstream ridge. This will sustain broad large scale subsidence and dry conditions across the region. The upper low is forecast to a drive a shallow cold front across Lake Huron Sunday afternoon/evening. This front will likely weaken Sun night before lifting north as a warm front on Monday as developing southwest flow begins to drive slightly warmer air across Lower Mi.

Forecast amplification of a mid level wave emerging from the northern Rockies and traversing the Great Lakes Tues/Tues night will support the next chance for rain. Moisture transport into this system along with good large scale ascent will support a 60-70 percent of showers. Weak elevated instability will also warrant a chance for a thunderstorm. Model solutions diverge in their handling of a secondary upper wave forecast to advance across southern Hudson Bay Tues night/Wed. The GFS camp drives this wave south into the Great Lakes region on Wednesday, while the ECMWF/UKMEt/Canadian all shear this wave eastward into northern Quebec. These differences will impact the degree of cold air advection (if any) Wed into Thursday with the GFS being quite a bit colder. The current ensemble blend forecast will feature late week temps just slightly below seasonal averages attm.

MARINE...

Cooler post-frontal westerly flow continues through the evening as gusts generally top out in the 20-25kt range, though near 30kts possible over the Saginaw Bay. An upper level trough currently settling over the Great Lakes holds overhead through the weekend leading to fairly consistent day-to-day conditions for the central Great Lakes. Some variability in wind direction (between west and northwest) is likely as disturbances embedded within the trough swing across northern Ontario. The cooler airmass maintains unstable overlake thermal profiles to support efficient mixing of winds down to the surface resulting in moderate winds through this timeframe with peak gusts for the majority of the region between 20-25kts. The exception will be northern Lake Huron where winds have the best potential to reach 30kts. Small craft advisories remain in effect for the Saginaw Bay and tip of the Thumb nearshore waters through Saturday afternoon due to a combination of winds and waves. These waters likely will require another advisory daytime Sunday as rougher conditions look to redevelop.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ421-422-441.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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