Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Syracuse, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 7:30PM Thursday March 30, 2017 6:42 AM EDT (10:42 UTC) Moonrise 7:38AMMoonset 9:42PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 742 Pm Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny in the morning...then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Rain with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain showers during the day. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers Monday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ044 Expires:201703300315;;284422 FZUS51 KBUF 292342 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 742 PM EDT WED MAR 29 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LOZ044-300315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Syracuse, NY
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location: 43.14, -76.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 300829
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
429 am edt Thu mar 30 2017

Synopsis
We will start off dry today, though clouds will increase and
thicken in the afternoon. Our next system will spread rain
across the area late today, which will linger through Saturday.

For some areas east of interstate 81, there will be a wintry
mix of snow sleet and freezing rain at times. Some snow or ice
accumulations will be possible at higher elevations from tug
hill and catskills to poconos.

Near term /through Friday/
415 am update...

dry for now, but a cold rain will overspread the region late
today through Friday. Main concern will be potential for wintry
mix at higher elevations east of i-81 tonight into Friday. Also,
with between an inch and inch- and-a-half of total
precipitation with this system late today through early
Saturday, river rises are expected. Please see hydrology section
near the bottom of this discussion for more details on flood
potential.

Dry ridge of high pressure is sitting on this morning but it
will shunt eastward this afternoon. Early sunshine will give way
to thickening clouds as next system approaches and moistening
warm air advection occurs aloft. What is effectively an elevated
warm front will lift through this afternoon and evening,
resulting in increasing chances for rain especially from central
twin tiers through finger lakes and eventually syracuse-mohawk
valley. However, at the surface, chilly low level air will keep
feeding in from the east-southeast courtesy of stout pressure
gradient between surface low making its way from the midwest,
and high pressure in quebec with ridge extending through new
england. This is why there is the wintry mix concern east of
i-81 later tonight into Friday morning.

There is a lot of uncertainty in thermal profiles and thus
precipitation types and amounts. We will probably need a winter
weather advisory for a portion of our area east of i-81 but in
coordination with NWS buffalo/albany/upton/mount holly, we will
allow forecasters another look at latest models later today to
get details finessed before deciding exactly which counties.

The NAM model has performed quite well this winter during mixed
precipitation events due to its handling of terrain features
and thermal profiles. I thus leaned hard on NAM for this
forecast at least for precipitation type whereas I used a blend
of models for precipitation amounts. Overall trend has been for
less snow/sleet and more of a freezing rain concern for higher
elevations of catskills and, at least for a time, the poconos.

Meanwhile, towards higher elevations of oneida county and
especially tug hill plateau area, cold air appears thick enough
for initial rain to change to a quick 1-3 inches or so of wet
snow-sleet tonight before a smaller window of freezing rain
early Friday. By Friday afternoon, only the highest elevations
of the catskills should still have a freezing rain threat,
though coverage could increase again Friday night as mentioned
below in the short term discussion.

Short term /Friday night through Sunday night/
A low pressure storm system will slide off the new jersey coast
Friday night, slowly bringing an end to showery mixed
precipitation. Friday night however, a changeable mix of rain,
snow, sleet, and possibly freezing rain is forecast over much of
the eastern forecast area.

Cold surface temperatures Saturday morning will keep the threat
for mixed precipitation over our extreme eastern counties. By
early afternoon, temperatures will be warm enough to change any
remaining shower activity over to rain.

High pressure will bring a sunny day Sunday, with temperatures
back in the 50s.

Long term /Monday through Wednesday/
An unsettled long term is forecast again, as another wave ejects
out of the central plains and into the ohio valley late Monday
or early Tuesday. The surface cyclone will meander toward the
mid-atlantic coast Tuesday afternoon, with rain or rain showers
spreading north into ny/pa through early Wednesday.

Maximum temperatures will average in the upper-40s to middle-
50s.

Aviation /08z Thursday through Monday/
Vfr conditions will persist through the coming day, however, our
next system will begin to bring restrictions towards the end of
the TAF period. Initially mainly clear sky will give way to
increasing high thin clouds around or above 20 kft agl starting
around midday, which will then thicken and lower with time late
afternoon through evening. Rain will be spotty and light at
first but from 01z west to 06z east will bring in MVFR
restrictions with fuel alternate required to ifr conditions not
far behind. Winds variable overnight to east 5-10 knots for all
terminals, then becoming southeast to south for kith-kbgm-kelm-
kavp late morning through evening.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday... Restrictions likely in
showers, especially Friday through Friday night. Snow or sleet
may be mixed in at times for krme.

Saturday night through Monday... PrimarilyVFR.

Monday night... Good chance of rain and associated restrictions.

Hydrology
350 pm edt Wednesday update...

a renewed threat for minor flooding returns this weekend as low
pressure moves from the southern plains to the eastern
seaboard. The system currently appears strong enough to generate
widespread QPF in excess of one inch by Saturday morning. The
main problem with this situation is the forecast of marginal
boundary layer temperatures. We should see a portion of the
precipitation fall as snow, sleet or freezing rain at the onset,
followed by several hours of rain, then a wintry mix again at
the conclusion of the event. This definitely hampers the
prediction of runoff and accurate flow/stage forecasts.

The current best estimate suggests that temperatures will be
marginally cold, and although we may see differing precipitation
types, not a lot of this new precipitation will be locked up.

Another factor contributing to the confusion is how the remaining
snow cover deep in the woods and hills of the susquehanna and
upper delaware headwaters will behave. Colder than usual temperatures
in the 30s to low 40s may not do much to melt the snow, however,
fairly warm rain falling into the ripe snow pack could do some
damage and exacerbate additional runoff.

Bottom line is that river rises will kick in again, and the
most plausible river simulations do suggest parts of the
susquehanna and delaware rivers could exceed their posted minor
flood stages by a little bit. Current confidence is very low,
and our best river forecasts are probably not going to happen
until the precipitation is on the ground. Thursday we will
evaluate the need for another flood watch.

Bgm watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Mdp
near term... Mdp
short term... Djp
long term... Djp
aviation... Mdp
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 31 mi42 min SSE 1 G 2.9 31°F 1026.3 hPa (+1.0)25°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 79 mi42 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 35°F 1027.1 hPa (+0.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 80 mi42 min 36°F 1026.1 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY1 mi48 minWSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy27°F25°F92%1026.1 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair27°F24°F89%1026.7 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5NW6NW7N12N10N9
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NW13NW10NW8NW4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W7
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS3NW4NW7W3NW6NW6W6W9W7NW11N12NW10N7NW7NW8NW7NW4NW6NW5NW5
2 days agoE4NE3NE5NE3S7S7SE5S7S4SE6NE4E6E4NE3NE3E3E4E4E4E5E3NE3E5E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.