Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Syracuse, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 4:41PM Thursday November 15, 2018 5:42 PM EST (22:42 UTC) Moonrise 1:17PMMoonset 11:41PM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 1231 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through late Friday night...
This afternoon..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Snow likely late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Snow showers likely with a chance of rain showers in the morning, then rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect rain showers likely. Waves 7 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely during the day, then snow showers likely Saturday night. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
LOZ044 Expires:201811152200;;349847 FZUS51 KBUF 151735 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1231 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-152200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Syracuse, NY
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location: 43.14, -76.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 152205
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
505 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
A major winter storm will impact the region into early Friday.

Once the storm departs, the weekend will remain chilly, with
some light snow showers and flurries, from time to time.

Near term through Friday
5:00 pm mesoscale update: the forecast for the overall event
remains largely unchanged with totals slightly increased based
on the reports collected so far. However, fgen forcing at 700
mb has produced an impressive band of heavy snow lifting
northward across northeast pa with snowfall rates of 1-3 inches
per hour reported. This band should lift into the southern tier
by 6pm and into the syracuse and rome areas by 8pm. Several
hours of very heavy snowfall will make travel very difficult to
nearly impossible tonight.

330 pm update... The much heralded winter storm is at hand.

Strong forced lift associated with a negative tilt short-wave
is resulting in a large area of moderate-heavy snow
overspreading cny nepa late this afternoon. A number of traffic
impacts are already being reported, with sub-freezing road
temperatures evident in area roadway networks. The above
mentioned short-wave, favorable jet dynamics, and an influx of
deepening moisture will keep moderate-heavy snow going into this
evening, with snowfall rates near an inch per hour probable.

A tricky period of the forecast will be later tonight, when a
warm nose in the 700-800 mb layer is expected to make inroads
into at least parts of the forecast area. Given such a deep
sub-freezing layer below the warm nose, sleet appears to be more
probable than freezing rain for most of our forecast area.

However, in parts of the pocono plateau, where the warm nose is
a little warmer deeper and the sub-freezing layer a bit more
shallow, freezing rain becomes more likely. It is in this area
(southeastern luzerne, southern lackawanna, southern wayne, and
pike counties) where ice accretions could approach 0.2 inches.

Starting in the pre-dawn hours and lasting for the duration of
the event, attention will turn to the approach of the main
upper system from the oh valley and rapid cyclogenesis along
the mid-atlantic coast. Strong ascent and dynamic cooling from a
developing deformation band will turn any mixed precipitation
back to snow, with another band of moderate-heavy snow
translating through much of cny nepa between about 3 and 9 am.

By the time all is said and done later Friday morning, we're
looking for snowfall totals of 8-12" for much of cny and pa's
northern tier, basically north and west of a line from about
towanda-binghamton-norwich-cooperstown. Across most of the
western catskills and nepa, where sleet freezing rain will be
more prevalent later tonight, snowfall totals of 5-8" are
foreseen, along with some ice accretions. Complete details are
contained in our latest hazardous weather briefing and can be
accessed by going to

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 31 mi43 min SSE 8.9 G 15 29°F 1023.3 hPa (-2.5)15°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 79 mi43 min SSE 11 G 16 30°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 80 mi43 min 30°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Last
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NW17
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1 day
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NW12
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G34
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NW16
G39
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G26
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G17
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NW6
G14
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G22
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G16
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2 days
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E2
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G8
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G16
SW6
G11
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W14
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G30
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NW17
G22
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G21

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY1 mi49 minE 1010.00 miOvercast26°F17°F69%1024.4 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi49 minVar 6 G 1410.00 miOvercast29°F15°F56%1024.2 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5SW4NW3NW3W3NE4E4E6E4E4E5E5E5E5E7NE7E7E11E11E10E10E10E9E10
1 day agoNW11W10W11W12
G19
W4W9W10W15W18W15W11NW11NW11NW9NW11
G18
NW9NW11NW9N13W15
G19
NW11NW8W8W5
2 days agoE4E4SE5E3E4S7S4S7S7SE7S4S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW7W7W10W9W10NW15
G22
NW11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.