Saturday, February17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Syracuse, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 5:40PM Saturday February 17, 2018 10:00 PM EST (03:00 UTC) Moonrise 8:03AMMoonset 7:34PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1242 Pm Est Sat Feb 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon...
This afternoon..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of light snow. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Scattered snow showers in the morning. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain likely during the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers Wednesday night. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 36 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201802172215;;117807 FZUS51 KBUF 171742 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1242 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-172215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Syracuse, NY
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location: 43.14, -76.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 180226
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
926 pm est Sat feb 17 2018

Synopsis
A coastal storm will spread snow into our region from south to
north through tonight. Milder weather will return for Sunday
and continue for the next several days.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
930 pm update...

forecast working out well with no significant changes. Snow
intensity increasing across central new york northern
pennsylvania at this time due to enhancement from jet dynamics.

Activity will be winding down shortly after midnight as low
pressure moves quickly out to sea.

255 pm update...

the winter weather advisory has been expanded into wyoming,
susquehanna, and delaware counties. The latest models have come
in with slightly higher QPF under the favored upper level jet
region, so we trended toward wpc's higher snow amounts.

Though the storm is a quick hitter and quickly exits to the
north and east overnight, the dynamics favor advisory criteria
snowfall over a several hour timeframe as the upper level trough
goes negative tilt.

We now expect 3 to 4.5 inches of snow in the advisory areas
over ny, and 2.5 to 3.5 inches of snow in the pa advisory areas.

Outside of flagged areas, a general 1 to 3 inches of snow will
fall.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
A few light lake effect snow showers are possible early Sunday
downwind of lake ontario. Otherwise, building high pressure will
yield clearing skies.

Warm advection will strengthen Sunday afternoon with 925mb
temperatures rising to around -1c to -2c along the ny pa border.

Surface temperatures will rise into the lower-40s.

A warm front will approach the region Sunday night. At this
point it appears precipitation will hold off until after
sunrise. Increasing clouds and continued warm air advection will
cause temperatures to hold between 25f and 30f for most of our
region.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Downstream amplification of the flow aloft continues across the
eastern half of the country Monday, as an upper-level trough deepens
across the western u.S. This should result in a frontal system to
become nearly stationary just to our north west (from central
michigan into southern ontario quebec) by Monday night as the upper
flow becomes nearly parallel to the the surface.

A deep southwesterly flow (more-or-less) at all levels early in the
week will result in the transport of copious amounts of moisture
into our area. Some of this flow will likely originate from the
western gulf of mexico, where data from both the GEFS and
operational model runs indicate high values of ivt and precipitable
water over our area (both near climatological maxima for mid-
february). Most of the deeper moisture should pool in vicinity of
the surface boundary, wherever it precisely winds up. We should all
see some possibility of rain through Tuesday, regardless. Due to
expected location of the front, northern and western areas will
likely see the greatest coverage of precipitation, as well as the
possibility of some locally heavy rainfall. Stay tuned.

Another consequence of the deep southwesterly flow will be warmer
temperatures. Strong low-level warm advection could allow 850mb
temperatures to reach between 8 and 9 degrees celsius across the
region. The result may be near record high temperatures by Tuesday,
especially in locations which don't receive as much rainfall.

Big picture-wise, the upper-level pattern remains largely unchanged
in the day 4 through 7 period. We'll likely remain in generally
southwest flow aloft, given a continued presence of a positively-
tilted trough over the western united states and ridging (of varying
degrees) over the atlantic. This should keep temperatures above
climatological means for late february.

Subtle nuances exist, though. It looks like a bit of energy could
get sheared off from the longwave trough Tuesday night. As this
shortwave energy moves eastward across the upper midwest and great
lakes regions, it will likely provide enough momentum to push the
front through the forecast area as a cold front by sometime
Wednesday evening. When this happens, the greatest coverage of
precipitation should shift to our south as weak surface ridging
moves toward the northeast u.S.

Big question during this time period will be extent our region dries
out. The upper-level support providing some of the forward momentum
of the front has to end sometime, which could probably result in the
front weakening or (again) becoming stationary. Some of the medium
range models indicate this could occur sooner rather than later, and
want to keep the frontal system a little farther west. For now, i
still think there may be enough of a westerly northwesterly low-
level component such that we're able to get some drier air parts of
the forecast area for Thursday. The exception may be across my
southern counties, who'll be closer to the front.

Regardless of what happens Thursday, moisture starts to deepen again
heading into Friday in advance of the next frontal system.

Evolutionary details in the medium range model world are still up
for debate, but it looks like a more significant piece of shortwave
energy will eject from the longwave trough Friday, aiding in the
development of low pressure somewhere across the mid-mississippi or
ohio river valleys. The front should move into western parts of our
region by Saturday before becoming nearly stationary. With
perturbations continuing to move across the region in the
southwesterly flow aloft, the odds of precipitation will greatly
increase heading into next weekend.

Aviation 03z Sunday through Thursday
A coastal system will bring a period of snow to all the
terminals this evening through late tonight. In general
conditions will drop into the ifr alternate min category with
the lowest most persistent restrictions expected at kbgm kavp.

The snow will end across the terminals between 07z-09z but
ceilings will remain in the MVFR alternate required category
until mid morning whenVFR conditions are forecast.

Southerly winds at 5 to 10 knots becoming westerly late tonight
and increasing Sunday morning at 8-12 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday night...VFR.

Monday through Wednesday... Occasional rain showers and
restrictions as several disturbances move through the region.

Wednesday night... Restrictions likely in mixed rain snow
showers.

Thursday... PrimarilyVFR.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter weather advisory until 4 am est Sunday for paz039-040-
043-044-047-048-072.

Ny... Winter weather advisory until 4 am est Sunday for nyz057-062.

Synopsis... Djp
near term... Djp rrm
short term... Djp
long term... Dab
aviation... Rrm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 31 mi43 min S 12 G 18 33°F 1016 hPa22°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 79 mi61 min SSW 2.9 G 2.9 31°F 1017.3 hPa (-0.3)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 80 mi43 min 30°F 1016.2 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Last
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W24
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NW8
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W8
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G15
N4

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY1 mi67 minSSW 8 G 1710.00 miOvercast31°F25°F79%1016.8 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi67 minSSW 810.00 miOvercast34°F21°F59%1016.8 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW13W8W7W4W3CalmCalmSW5SW6S3SE5S5SE7S7E3SE5SE8SE8S8S11
G19
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G17
1 day agoNW6N7NW10W5W4SW3W4W5W4W5W6W7W11W12W12W15
G22
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2 days agoE3E4E4CalmCalmCalmE4E4E5CalmS5S7S8SW7SW10SW19
G26
W12SW14
G22
SW10SW5S3S5S5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.