Monday, January21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Syracuse, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 5:03PM Monday January 21, 2019 12:33 PM EST (17:33 UTC) Moonrise 5:47PMMoonset 7:53AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201901212215;;700049 Fzus51 Kbuf 211424 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 924 Am Est Mon Jan 21 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-212215- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 924 Am Est Mon Jan 21 2019
.heavy freezing spray warning in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Heavy freezing spray. Lake effect snow showers. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Scattered snow showers in the evening, then scattered flurries overnight. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. A chance of snow showers in the evening, then freezing rain, snow and sleet likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. Rain, snow and sleet with freezing rain likely during the day, then rain and snow showers likely Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Thursday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 35 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Syracuse, NY
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location: 43.14, -76.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 211603
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1103 am est Mon jan 21 2019

Synopsis
Frigid northwest winds will cause dangerously low wind chills
today. Winds will diminish tonight, but wind chills and in some
cases actual temperatures will be subzero. Lake effect snow
showers and flurries will persist today across much of central
new york and at times into far northern pennsylvania. Our next
system may cause a wintry mix late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Near term through Tuesday
1045 am update...

light lake effect snow showers continue over the finger lakes
and northern susquehanna region under northwest low level flow.

Local radar shows enhancement from both skaneateles and owasco
lakes. Activity will remain in the same general area through
this afternoon as flow remains steady state. Snow accumulations
will be around 2 inches in the more persistent activity this
afternoon. Temperatures are very slow to rise this morning and
actually lowered the highs by a couple of degrees. Combined with
the strong northwest winds dangerous wind chill values will
continue into the early evening period.

345 am update...

main concerns are frigid temperatures, gusty northwest winds,
and the resulting continued dangerously low wind chills. Areas
of blowing snow and lake effect snow showers will also persist.

Wind chills of -15 to -35 are already being realized on a
widespread basis early this morning. Temperatures will not move
much today, yet winds if anything will pick up a little more
zest due to steepening pressure gradient between the very deep
low pressure now pulling over nova scotia, and the giant cold
arctic high building in from the western great lakes. Markers of
this anomalously cold air mass include 1000-500mb thicknesses
actually getting into the 490s decameter range, and 850mb
temperatures approaching -30 celsius. Climatologically speaking,
this is the coldest time of year and so record low maxima range
from only 0 to 3 degrees at our climate sites. We are not
forecasting to break those records but we will be within a few
degrees. Northern oneida county, and some higher elevations
spots of central ny east of i-81, may not even get above zero
today. Generally speaking, highs for northeast pa-central ny
will be only in the single digits above zero, after starting
off mostly below zero. This combined with continued gusty winds
frequently reaching 25-35 mph with a few gusts perhaps to 40 mph
at higher elevations, will keep wind chills at dangerous levels
through the whole day.

The other impact of these very cold northwest winds, will be a
continued flow off the lake ontario and the finger lakes
resulting in snow showers and flurries, as well as areas of
blowing snow where a dry snowpack exists; i.E. Most of the area.

The air mass is extremely dry with dewpoints in the minus 20s on
the other side of lake ontario. Also the speed and direction
will yield little lake fetch, meanwhile it is so cold that the
entire column is below dendritic growth temperatures. These
factors will prevent excessive accumulations, but the more
persist narrow bands could still result in additional dustings
to 1-3 inches of fluff, especially seneca-tompkins-northern
tioga-northern broome-cortland-central southern onondaga-
madison-northwest chenango counties. At least flurries will
manage to carry southeast of the finger lakes into far northern
pennsylvania as well.

Winds will start to back off some this evening, yet actual
temperatures will drop to between 3 above and 10 below; even
teens below zero in northern oneida. Thus it is possible that
the wind chill warning currently in effect areawide to 7 pm
today, many need to be extended for some zones into the night or
replaced with a wind chill advisory for others.

The arctic high will move directly overhead Tuesday, for a
mostly sunny crisp cold day other than some high clouds starting
to get into the area during the afternoon, well ahead of the
next system. After the very cold dawn with decoupled light or
calm wind, temperatures will eventually find their way up to
mid teens to mid 20s for highs thanks to the beginning of warm
air advection via a light southerly wind return flow.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday
355 am update...

low pressure will pass through the upper midwest, arriving in
michigan by early Wednesday morning. This feature will sweep a warm
front across western pa and west-central ny along with increasing
moisture. The thermal forcing associated with the front will overrun
the shallow arctic airmass in place from earlier this week, creating
a ripe situation for mixed precipitation over nepa and cny. Partial
thickness values and forecast soundings suggest light snow
developing overnight Tuesday with a west-east transition to areas of
sleet and freezing rain prior to the morning commute. Temperatures
will continue to warm aloft during the day Wednesday, eventually
scouring out the sub-freezing dome of air at the surface and
changing most areas to rain. Normally cold regions in the eastern
half of our CWA may struggle to break free of freezing and the risk
of sleet and freezing rain will continue in spots from utica to
monticello throughout Wednesday.

Low temperatures will occur Tuesday evening before rising through
the night. Highs on Wednesday will be mainly in the 30s, with an
east to west gradient from colder to warmer readings. Some spots in
west-central ny could touch 40.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
355 am update...

the forecast remains difficult with a high degree of
uncertainty through Thursday as the low pressure area, and
associated cold front, will be moving rather slowly through our
area, and may even stall. Models are suggesting a secondary wave
of low pressure develops to our south on Wednesday night and
rides northeast toward western new england on Thursday. This
would hold up the eastward progress of the surface cold front
with mild air lingering across our eastern areas, and colder air
bleeding into the north and west central parts of ny and nepa.

Details of precipitation type and intensity are thus up in the
air. Model consensus calls for a change back to snow sleet over
western areas with a rain freezing rain sleet potential east of
the temperature boundary. The GFS looks a bit more progressive
with the frontal position and thus colder sooner than the ecmwf
and canadian global. With the overall upper level pattern re-
cycling into a deep eastern trof, the winner here is a toss up
right now. Plan on another day with a variety of winter
precipitation chances.

The remainder of the period will be influenced by the amplifying
cyclonic pattern setting up over the east which should kick the
frontal system far enough east of our area to not be a major weather
making factor. Typically, we're looking at near to below normal
temperatures and occasional snow showers, with lake effect at times
through Saturday.

If the projections hold steady, Wednesday night and Thursday should
be relatively mild for the time of year with readings 33-40. Much
colder air returns Friday and Saturday.

Aviation 16z Monday through Friday
A brisk arctic wind moving over the lakes will continue to
generate snow showers today, and especially this morning. The
snow showers will affect ksyr-kith-kbgm, where visibilities
will fluctuate between 1sm and 4sm, and ceilings will hold
mostly between 1500 and 3000 feet, except below 1000 feet at
times for kith; through at least mid day before modest gradual
improvement this afternoon evening. An MVFR ceiling above 2500
feet and flurries will also visit kelm at times this morning.

Though lake clouds will reach kavp,VFR will prevail. Northwest
winds will increase to 15-20 knots with gusts of 28-32 knots
during the day before diminishing in the evening. Blowing snow
may also cause additional brief visibility restrictions for
several terminals.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR.

Tuesday night through Wednesday... Another system with snow
changing to wintry mix to rain with associated restrictions.

Wednesday night through Thursday... Rain gradually changing back
to snow on back side of system; restrictions likely.

Thursday night through Friday... Restrictions possible in snow
showers, especially the ny terminals.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... Wind chill warning until 7 pm est this evening for paz038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.

Ny... Wind chill warning until 7 pm est this evening for nyz009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

Synopsis... Mdp
near term... Mdp rrm
short term... Jab
long term... Jab
aviation... Mdp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 31 mi39 min NW 20 G 26 3°F 1025.3 hPa-2°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 79 mi33 min NW 20 G 25 6°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 80 mi39 min 4°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Last
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N17
G23
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N17
G25
NW20
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G27
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NE15
G19
E6
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NE10
G14
NE13
G18
NE17
G23
NE15
G24
NE13
G20
NE8
G17
E8
NE5
G8
NE11
G15
NE9
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NE9
G14
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G22
NE17
G24
NE13
G24
NE21
G31
NE21
G28
NE17
G29
NE22
G31
NE25
G31
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NE18
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G27
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W14
G17
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NW13
G16
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G24
W15
G22
W21
G26
W17
G28
NW21
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G24
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N13
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NE21
G33
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G29
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G24
NE18
G26
NE14
G23
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G21
NE13
G17
NE14
G18
NE12
G16
NE13
G19
NE13
G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY1 mi39 minWNW 15 G 241.75 miLight Snow Blowing Snow2°F-5°F72%1024.5 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi39 minNW 12 G 200.50 miSnow2°F-6°F69%1025.4 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW15
G22
NW13
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NW12W11N6N6N7N12N5N5N8N4N4NW5N3NW13W10W11N4N4W12
G19
NW15
G22
NW16
G23
W15
G24
1 day agoN4N6N4N5N4N3E8E8NE11E11NE12E10E12NE10NE10NE11NE12
G19
NE10N10W9W14W16W15NW16
G23
2 days agoW10W12W10NW7SW10W8W9W11W12NW6W6W5W7W4NW9NW8NW7NW6NW6NW5NW4NW4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.