Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 9:14 PM   Moonset 5:38 AM

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LOZ044 Expires:202404250915;;324388 Fzus51 Kbuf 250215 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1015 pm edt Wed apr 24 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-250915- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 1015 pm edt Wed apr 24 2024
Rest of tonight - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Thursday night - North winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast and increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - South winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less.Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBGM 250731 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 331 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will be in control with dry weather Thursday and Friday. Northerly flow allows temperatures to fall below freezing Thursday night. Warm front moves through Saturday and Sunday bringing a chance of rain showers along with a warming trend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
245 am update...

Surface high remains in place for our region keeping conditions quiet and dry. Meanwhile at the upper levels a trough slowly begins to lift north of our region with a ridge building in behind it. This keeps cooler air in place today with temperatures climbing into the 50s this afternoon. Despite this mostly sunny skies are expected which will allow conditions to feel warmer. Clear skies persist into the overnight hours with calm winds allowing temperatures to drop off into the upper 20s to low 30s across the region. Adjusted temperatures a few degrees lower using the NBM 10th percentile.

Upper ridge moves ahead on Friday with winds shifting to the south/southeast. Surface high still holds with another pleasant day in store for the region. Temperatures will begin to trend slightly warmer under this pattern with highs climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s. Clear skies persist for most of the day with clouds moving in Friday night ahead of the next system.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

High pressure over the region Friday night should give way to an approaching warm front from the Ohio Valley. Initially the airmass looks rather dry ahead of the warm front. However, enough lift and moisture eventually looks present by late Saturday for clouds and spotty showers. One more clear night Friday night but with southerly winds beginning to pick up ahead of the warm front, low temperatures look to end up several degrees warmer in the mid and upper 30's. Even with the clouds and spotty showers Saturday most locations should get to around 60 for highs. Top gusts Saturday afternoon are modeled to get to around 20 mph.



LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Clouds, spotty showers and continued southerly winds should continue Saturday night. As a result, the warming trend continues with spots staying well up into the 40's. We look to be firmly in a warm sector through Monday. While the warm front stays to our north, enough moisture looks to be in place to continue a mention for isolated showers and even thunderstorms as the instability increases a bit as well. Modeled 925 mb temperatures would indicate highs in the 70's Sunday and even the low 80's Monday. With the amount of moisture on the increase low temperatures may struggle to fall much below 60 early next week.

The main low pressure system and cold front is modeled to move through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will serve to bring us more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front. Instability on ensemble guidance is noteworthy, around 1,000 J/KG surface CAPE with dewpoints into the low 60's. In terms of any thunderstorm organization 0-6KM bulk shear is modeled to be around 30-40 knots ahead of the front which may lead to thunderstorm organization into linear segments with a gusty wind threat. Of course this far out timing of the front can have a big impact on instability. Lapse rates also look poor for any strong to severe storms too. So will continue to monitor over the next several days.

High pressure attempts to build back into the region for the middle of next week with a cooler Canadian airmass moving in as well.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure remains in control for this period with VFR conditions expected at all terminals. Northerly winds will continue to decrease overnight and winds Thursday will likely stay below 10 kts at all sites.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Monday...Restrictions possible in rain showers, especially in the afternoon and evening.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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