Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montague, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 8:10PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 3:21 AM EDT (07:21 UTC) Moonrise 7:45AMMoonset 9:15PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ872 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 845 Pm Cdt Tue Mar 28 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am cdt Wednesday...
Rest of tonight..North winds 10 to 20 kt becoming east. Areas of dense fog. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday..East winds 15 to 25 kt becoming northeast. Areas of dense fog in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 ft occasionally to 7 ft.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt becoming east to 30 kt. Chance of rain in the evening...then rain and snow likely overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft occasionally to 7 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Thursday..East winds to 30 kt increasing to gales to 35 kt. Rain. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Thursday night..East winds to 30 kt becoming northeast 15 to 25 kt. Rain in the evening...then chance of rain and drizzle overnight. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Friday..Northeast winds to 30 kt becoming north. Chance of rain. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Friday night..North winds 15 to 25 kt becoming northeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft occasionally to 7 ft.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ872 Expires:201703290800;;237826 FZUS63 KLOT 290145 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 845 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN. WAVES ARE PROVIDED AS A RANGE OF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE, ALONG WITH THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 10% OF THE WAVES WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENCOUNTERED. .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AT 30.5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AND AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE AT 29.6 INCHES OVER THE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT 30.2 INCHES WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND BUILD EAST TO THE CENTRAL LAKES REGION SUNDAY. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-290800-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montague, MI
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location: 43.14, -87.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 290529
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
129 am edt Wed mar 29 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 329 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017
fair weather is expected through the day Wednesday. Low pressure
will approach lower michigan on Thursday. A brief period of
wintry precipitation could start the day for locations along and
north of i-96. Precipitation will transition to a soaking rain
during the day Thursday. Conditions are expected to trend drier
through next weekend with the possibility for more active weather
at the beginning of next week.

Update
Issued at 857 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017
lowered the min temps a bit for tonight. The air mass that is
moving in is quite dry with dew points in the mid and upper 20s
over northern wi. Expect skies to remain mostly clear, with ci
only arriving just before daybreak. Winds will also be very light.

This will allow temps to reach the lower 30s in most places, and
a few mins around 30 over the north.

Short term (this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 329 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017
the main event in the short term will be the system that moves in
late Wednesday and Thursday. This brings the potential for another
round of soaking rainfall with the onset possibly starting as a bit
of wintry precipitation.

Our next potentially big rain event can be seen churning over the
southwest, resulting in thunderstorms over the panhandle of texas
and oklahoma. The closed upper low will swing our direction as it
transitions into a pretty decent shortwave feature.

The initial question with this system is how soon precipitation
begins. Mid and upper level moisture and lift increases along a
boundary that extends well out ahead of the system late Wednesday
night. Guidance continues to point out a dry layer (below 8k feet)
persisting into early Thursday morning across portions of
southern lower michigan. At this point, it seems this layer is
more pronounced along and south of i-96. This is where the onset
of precipitation may be delayed for a couple of hours, if trends
continue in this direction. Where the boundary lines up, this
layer may be overcome a little quicker. Precipitation may hold off
until after midnight for most locations.

Temperature profiles would suggest the first few hours starting as
snow across central lower michigan with a transition line
progressing from southwest to northwest Thursday morning. Areas
along and south of i-94 are likely to be all rain with the best
chances for wintry precipitation along/north of i-96. As milder
air takes over, all precipitation turns to rain, which could be a
soaker. Models diverge on where the heaviest rain fall, but
rainfall totals may push/exceed one inch in some locations.

Between now and Thursday, we will see fair weather. Dry air will
continue to gradually work out the cloud cover overhead from north
to south. Wednesday will begin with some sunshine, before clouds
increase during the afternoon.

Long term (Friday through Tuesday)
issued at 329 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017
precipitation chances were increased Monday night, but overall
forecast certainty for the whole period is poor. This will make
subsequent forecasts very susceptible to change.

The weekend is looking drier than what yesterday's forecast
indicated. As suspected, there will be too little moisture to
capitalize on a minor upper PV maximum forecast to drop southeast
across the area around this time. Models have been surprisingly
consistent with this PV feature, but I am reminding myself that this
is a day 4 to 5 forecast through a prolonged pattern of weak and
unphased upper flow over the CONUS - far from ideal regarding
predictability.

Keeping this backdrop of uncertainty in mind, we are looking at
precipitation potential early next week. Our forecast will feature
>50% pops Monday night primarily across the southeastern forecast
area. This is a pretty aggressive this far out for reasons already
mentioned. It is based primarily on the wet deterministic GFS and
ecmwf solutions. The 00z GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members
unsurprisingly show a very wide range of solutions regarding the
track of the surface low and associated precipitation. So,
we will continue to expect more fluctuations in subsequent forecasts.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 123 am edt Wed mar 29 2017
satellite imagery shows stratus/fog hugging the shore as it sinks
south over the lake. Mkg has scattered out and should remainVFR
through the night. Some MVFR fog is possible at azo through
sunrise, otherwiseVFR through the period.

Marine
Issued at 857 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017
added areas of fog to the forecast through this evening. With
lowering dew points and winds becoming more offshore later
tonight this fog will move away from the shoreline and also
gradually diminish.

Wave are expected to remain less than 3 feet for the remainder of
the week. No headlines are warranted in the period.

Hydrology
Issued at 320 pm edt Mon mar 27 2017
most rivers have demonstrated within bank rises after rainfall over
the last 4 days. However, more elevated river levels at ionia,
hastings, eagle, and holt may be susceptible to additional rainfall
expected Thursday and Friday, possibly another 0.50"-1.00". This may
act to provide secondary river crests heading into the end of the
week and weekend, potentially higher than the current crests.

Grr watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Jk
synopsis... Jam
short term... Jam
long term... Tjt
aviation... 04
hydrology... Hoving
marine... Jk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 37 mi32 min E 7 G 8 34°F 1025.3 hPa33°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 46 mi32 min W 4.1 G 4.1 33°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 48 mi42 min WNW 2.9 G 6 33°F 1024.7 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI40 mi27 minN 010.00 miFair31°F28°F92%1024.7 hPa

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N6N5N6N5N6NE6N3N7E64NW6W6W9W8W6W3W3CalmCalmCalmS3SE4Calm
1 day agoNW5W4W6W4W6W6W6NW5W3CalmW4W7NW5W7NW7NW5NW6N7N5N4N5N7N6N7
2 days agoE11E11
G20
E14E9E13E10E10E10E8E8E10E10E9E6SE8SE6E4E3CalmSW5SW4W7W5NW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.