Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montague, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 6:30PM Saturday February 24, 2018 11:02 AM EST (16:02 UTC) Moonrise 12:51PMMoonset 2:56AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ872 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 906 Am Cst Sat Feb 24 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
.gale warning in effect from 7 pm cst this evening through Sunday afternoon...
Rest of today..East winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of rain this afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft late this afternoon.
Tonight..East winds to 30 kt increasing to gales to 35 kt early in the evening, becoming southeast gales to 40 kt late in the evening...then shifting to southwest gales to 45 kt late. Rain and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft building to 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft.
Sunday..West gales to 45 kt becoming southwest to 30 kt. Waves 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft subsiding to 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Sunday night..Southwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Monday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ872 Expires:201802242230;;482037 FZUS63 KLOT 241506 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 906 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure of 30.3 inches over the Upper Mississippi Valley will quickly move to Quebec by evening. Meanwhile, low pressure of 29.7 inches organizing over the Texas Panhandle will deepen to 29.3 inches as it quickly moves to near Milwaukee by midnight tonight, then continue to deepen to near 29.0 inches as it reaches James Bay by early Sunday evening. Weak high pressure of 30.2 inches will move from the Southern Plains this evening to the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes region by Monday morning is the wake of the deep low. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-242230-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montague, MI
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location: 43.14, -87.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 241158
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
658 am est Sat feb 24 2018
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 328 am est Sat feb 24 2018
our next rain event moves through the area tonight with a few
isolated thunderstorms, the heaviest rainfall misses us to the
south and northwest. Enough cold air follows this system so that
we may see some flurries or sprinkles during the mid morning hours
of Sunday then skies should clear by mid afternoon. Mostly sunny
and warmer than normal conditions are expected Monday into
Tuesday. A weak cold front may bring showers later Tuesday into
Wednesday. Then a system from the southern plains moves into the
area to bring more rain, later Wednesday into Thursday. This may
be enough to cause more flooding issues.

Short term (today through Monday)
issued at 328 am est Sat feb 24 2018
the main issue with this forecast is the rain and possible
thunderstorms tonight. However is has become very clear the
heaviest precipitation amounts will be northwest and southeast of
this area. The system does go negative tilt at upper levels over
us tonight but the air cold enough for snow is well to our north
and west and the deep tropical moisture feed misses us to the
southeast. The instability is marginal but we can not rule out an
isolated thunderstorm this evening.

The reason the heaviest precipitation misses southwest michigan is
that the upper low that develops will be north of lake superior
so that keeps the precipitation with the upper low mostly north
and west of this area. As for why the heavy rain south of this
area, that is due to the upper jet core tracking across the
detroit area Sunday morning. That puts southwest michigan in the
left exit region of the upper jet after midnight, which is why we
get any precipitation at all from this but the right entrance
region stays south of i-80 so that will be where the heaviest rain
and significant thunderstorms will be.

More than likely there will be a brief period of freezing rain
north and east of grand rapids tonight as the showers move in but
due to the light amount of rainfall expected and that temperatures
have been for the most part above freezing plus even in areas that
get freezing rain temperatures will be just near 32 so any ice
accumulation will be very limited.

Colder air follows this system so we may see a brief period of
flurries or sprinkles mid morning Sunday then the dry air surges
in and skies should clear. High pressure rules then into Monday.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 328 am est Sat feb 24 2018
rain chances will increase Tuesday night when a weak cold front
moves south across the state. Little in the way of upper support is
noted with the front so rain will be light and may mix with wet snow
by Wednesday morning north of i-96.

The best chance of precipitation will be Wednesday night through
Thursday night. The ECMWF and GFS are at odds on the strength of the
system. The GFS is 20mb deeper with the low than the ECMWF and
consequently develops much more rain. Latest GFS paints 1-2 inches
of rain over the CWA with the higher amounts over the east central
cwa. We'll watch this closely especially in light of the ongoing
flooding across the cwa. The ECMWF only created around a quarter
inch. The discrepancies can be traced to the different upper
dynamics. The GFS shows a much more robust low than the ECMWF which
shows a weaker trough farther north.

Once the system GOES by, colder air will filter in again and
lingering pcpn may change to light snow.

Warmer weather is again on the way with highs in the mid 50s Tuesday
and Wednesday. Otherwise, highs in the 40s can be expected.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 658 am est Sat feb 24 2018
it would seem the low clouds will clear out of western sections
more so than eastern sections today. Mkg has already gone to
bkn250 for a ceiling as of 11z. It would seem this clearing should
reach grr and azo and maybe btl. That is due to winds becoming
easterly, since the clouds are clearing from west to east, if the
winds turns to the east to soon, which I think it will, that will
not allow the eastern TAF sites to clear the low clouds like the
western TAF sites.

In any event, the next system comes in tonight with showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Since the risk of a thunderstorm is very
low, I did not put that in any of the TAF sites. If it were to
happen, the i-69 TAF sites would be the most likely to see that
happen. All areas will see ifr ceilings and MVFR visibilities with
the showers tonight. The showers should end before 12z at all but
the most eastern TAF sites.

Due to winds being 40 to 50 knots above 1500 ft agl, we have low
level wind shear in all of the TAF forecasts tonight.

Hydrology
Issued at 328 pm est Fri feb 23 2018
levels along the grand, thornapple, and kalamazoo rivers have
crested in upriver locations and will crest over the next couple
days downriver. Many river forecast points in these basins are
seeing river levels that challenge modern records over the last 5 to
50 years. Moderate to major flooding is ongoing in the most flood-
prone locations. In kalamazoo this is a record high river level, but
flood impacts compared to sep 2008 are reportedly not quite so bad
due to recent flood mitigation projects. Still, many roads are
closed and properties are taking on water. In kent county, the crest
on Saturday is expected to climb just a little under the levels of
april 2013, but flood impacts will nonetheless be substantial near
the river especially in comstock park.

A tenth of an inch of rain fell Friday morning, and a quarter to
locally half inch of rain is expected Saturday night. This may not
increase the flood impacts much if at all, but it could delay the
recession of river levels.

Please see the latest flood statements or river hydrographs for
details. Hydrographs are available by going to weather.Gov grr and
clicking on the "rivers and lakes" link above the map of flood
warnings.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Wdm
short term... Wdm
long term... 04
aviation... Wdm
hydrology... Cas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 37 mi33 min ESE 11 G 14 35°F 1023.9 hPa27°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 48 mi83 min E 12 G 15 34°F 1023.7 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI40 mi68 minENE 810.00 miOvercast35°F27°F72%1023.8 hPa

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW11SW14W12W11
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W8W7W9W6W7W7W7W7NW8NW7NW7N6N4N5N4CalmN4NE4NE5E8
1 day agoE12E10E13E11E10E9E6E10E11E11E13E15
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2 days agoNW11NW10N8NW7N7NW7W6NW6NW6NW6N7N7N5NE6NE5NE4N5NE6NE6NE6NE5NE6NE7NE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.