Wednesday, November22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montague, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:46AMSunset 5:16PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 7:37 AM EST (12:37 UTC) Moonrise 11:10AMMoonset 8:50PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ872 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 225 Am Cst Wed Nov 22 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
Today..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt this morning...then becoming southwest this afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Waves building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Thursday..Southwest winds to 30 kt becoming west 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest to 30 kt overnight. Waves building to 3 to 5 ft.
Friday..Southwest gales to 35 kt becoming south. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft building to 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft.
Friday night..Southwest gales to 35 kt becoming west to 30 kt. Chance of rain. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft subsiding to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Saturday..Northwest winds to 30 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ872 Expires:201711221500;;783366 FZUS63 KLOT 220825 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 225 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...Large high pressure of 30.4 inches over the central Great Plains this morning will move to the lower Mississippi Valley tonight. A trough of low pressure averaging 29.8 inches will move across Ontario and the Great Lakes on Thursday, with a deeper low pressure system of 28.9 inches quickly moving through Manitoba and Ontario Friday. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-221500-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montague, MI
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location: 43.14, -87.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 221148
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
648 am est Wed nov 22 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 324 am est Wed nov 22 2017
fairly quiet weather is forecast through the holiday travel period.

No major weather systems will affect the area through the upcoming
weekend. Temperatures will be on the cool side of normal today and
on thanksgiving but will warm back to above normal on Friday. Highs
will be in the 30s today and Thursday but warm well into the 40s,
if not into the 50s on Friday.

Short term (today through Friday)
issued at 324 am est Wed nov 22 2017
no major concerns through Friday, with mainly dry weather forecast.

The upper pattern will feature zonal flow with a weak shortwave
moving through our area early on thanksgiving day. Another, stronger
shortwave trough will approach late in the day on Friday.

As for precipitation, lake effect snow showers or flurries will wind
down today. Have some flurries mentioned this morning, but overall
the lake effect has been underwhelming. Delta t's at the present
time are around 20c. The instability is offset however by a lack of
moisture depth. The upper trough shifting east is not helping it
either. Bottom line, lake effect will dwindle through the course of
the morning hours.

Next chance for precipitation is with a burst of warm air advection
late tonight and into thanksgiving morning. There will be some lake
enhancement to the precipitation with delta t's in the lower to
middle teens through midday on thanksgiving. Best chances for some
light snow will be in the northwest cwa, north of muskegon and west
of big rapids. Models are not bullish on qpf, so only have small
chance pops in the forecast up there. Would not be surprised though
to see a few hours of light snow thanksgiving morning. Any
accumulations would be light, on the order of a dusting.

Dry weather is forecast from thanksgiving afternoon through Friday.

It appears precipitation with the next front should hold off through
the day on Friday and not arrive until Friday evening night.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 324 am est Wed nov 22 2017
a fairly uneventful and mild long term is expected by late november
standards. We are not looking at any appreciable snow through early
next week. Most of the period actually looks dry.

The best chance for precipitation looks to come right at the
beginning of the long term period on Fri night. A fairly decent
upper wave and associated sfc low will traverse the country just
north of the u.S. Canadian border. Much of the pcpn will be across
the NRN portion of the state closer to the upper wave. The pcpn with
the system will be mainly rain with plenty of mild air out ahead of
it. Rainfall amounts do not look impressive with a lack of a
connection to the gulf.

Some of the lingering pcpn may fall as some snow lake effect as
cooler air comes in on Sat into Sat night. This does not looks to be
of significance as the upper wave remains mainly north of the area,
with just a quick glancing blow of the colder air. This should move
out by Sun morning.

Drier conditions with increasingly mild temperatures can then be
expected through early next week. Upper ridging builds in, and a
solid SW flow in the lower levels will bring in warmer air. We could
be looking at another day or two of 50+ degrees toward Tuesday of
next week. There is a small chance of rain on Tue as the next system
approaches the area. We believe for now that the rain will hold off
until after next tue.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 648 am est Wed nov 22 2017
vfr weather is expected the next 24 hours. Ceilings of 3,000-4,000ft
are forecast today, lifting to around 8,000ft tonight. Winds will
be less than 15 knots through the period, with northwest winds
this morning, veering to the southwest this afternoon.

Marine
Issued at 324 am est Wed nov 22 2017
it is going to take a bit of time yet for the lake to settle down
after the wind of the last 24-36 hours. Therefore have extended the
small craft advisory through the course of the morning hours. The
last observation from the mid lake buoy was 6 feet. Expecting to
have 4 footers at least into the 9am to 10am time frame, so extended
the SCA through 11am.

The respite is short lived as another SCA looks likely in a
strengthening southwest flow late tonight and on thanksgiving. 20-30
knot winds and waves of 4 to 6 feet look likely. Wind and waves ramp
up once again for Friday through Saturday.

Hydrology
Issued at 100 pm est Tue nov 21 2017
several rivers remain at advisory action stage level as runoff
continues from rain that fell over the weekend. Water levels in
these and other rivers will remain fairly steady or slowly fall
through the end of the week. Rain and snow showers today and tonight
will only provide light amounts of precipitation, and will not have
an impact on water levels in rivers, creeks and streams. Additional
flooding is not expected.

A few more rounds of light rain snow are expected through the end of
the week, but should not have a significant impacts on river levels.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 11 am est this morning for lmz844>849.

Synopsis... Duke
short term... Duke
long term... Njj
aviation... Duke
hydrology... Hlo
marine... Duke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 32 mi48 min N 12 G 16 31°F 47°F4 ft1026.3 hPa (+1.8)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 37 mi38 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 30°F 1026.8 hPa (+1.9)19°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 46 mi48 min NW 7 G 8.9 22°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 48 mi58 min WNW 2.9 G 6 20°F 1027.8 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NW22
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G28
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G26
SW21
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI40 mi43 minN 410.00 miOvercast30°F18°F61%1025.9 hPa

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW18
G31
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NW11NW13N11N10N12
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N7N7N7N8N4
1 day agoSW12SW14SW17
G25
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S14
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G39
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SW24
G40
SW25
G34
SW20
G32
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G29
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G28
SW24
G31
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2 days agoNW13
G19
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G21
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NW14
G21
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SW10W12SW13SW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.