Sunrise 6:58 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 12:19 PM   Moonset 3:14 AM

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LMZ872 Expires:202404162130;;841300 Fzus63 Kmkx 161352 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 852 am cdt Tue apr 16 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
easterly winds will continue across the lake today as low pressure of 29.2 inches continues northeast towards wisconsin. Winds will begin to increase throughout the day as the low approaches, leading to the likelihood of gales across much of the lake by this evening. Thus, a gale warning is in effect from this evening through Wednesday evening for various parts of the lake. Easterly gales will continue to be possible over the far northern portion of the lake through Wednesday evening. Central and southern lake michigan will see winds diminish and shift southerly to southwesterly Wednesday as the low moves north across central wisconsin. The far northern portions of the lake wont see winds diminish and become westerly until Wednesday night. Westerly winds will then continue Thursday morning before becoming southwesterly by Thursday afternoon for the entire lake as the low departs the area.
lmz364-366-563-565-567-669-671-868-870-872-162130- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 852 am cdt Tue apr 16 2024
rock island passage to charlevoix mi south to north point light wi to grand haven mi - .
.gale warning in effect from 6 pm cdt this evening through Wednesday morning - .
Rest of today - East winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft. Tonight - East gales to 40 kt becoming southeast. Chance of rain showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft building to 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft. Wednesday - Southeast gales to 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt late in the morning, then becoming southeast to 30 kt early in the afternoon becoming south 15 to 25 kt late. Rain showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of rain showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft subsiding to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming west. Chance of rain showers. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.Thursday - West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest 10 to 15 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft. Thursday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Friday - West winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Saturday - Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 161603 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1203 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Sunny this morning, showers/storms tonight

- Strong to severe storms possible Wednesday

- A Period of Rain Thursday Night

- Cooling trend into the weekend

UPDATE
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Main update is that we are issuing a Wind Advisory from the GRR area to the north and west in a zone that will have the potential for gusts near and over 45 mph late this afternoon and evening.
Multiple high resolution models are showing gusts to potentially 50 mph. BUFKIT overviews via the 3km NAM also support strong wind gusts this evening with 45 knots in the mixed layer.

High pressure will slide east away from the area this afternoon, allowing us to become more under the influence of the low pressure system in the plains. What that means for the afternoon and evening is an increase in mid and high clouds. Precipitation should mainly hold off until after 00z per the 12z HRRR, but not out of the realm of possibilities of seeing a few light showers down towards South Haven towards dusk.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 332 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

- Sunny this morning, showers/storms tonight

High pressure over northwest Ontario will provide some sunshine this morning before high clouds move in from the west this afternoon. Low pressure over the Plains will move east today and push a warm front in our direction.

There's a weak signal for a few showers to develop around mid afternoon over the southwest cwa before diurnal heating wanes and the showers dissipate.

This system looks like it will produce two distinct precipitation events. The first unfolds tonight after 03z as the warm front noses into the region. Expect the usual elevated showers and scattered storms. Any storms that develop will be aided by a piece of vorticity that breaks off the main short wave over IA/MN.
MUCAPE around 700 j/kg point toward a thunder potential but not severe storms. If we do see storms, it will be during round two on Wednesday.

- Strong to severe storms possible Wednesday

The severe threat Wednesday is conditional on how worked over the atmosphere is from any convection that occurs tonight and the degree of recovery prior to the cold front moving through Wednesday. Areas south of I-96 are the most likely to see stronger storms as dynamics are stronger there.

Bulk shear increases to around 50 kts mid morning Wednesday ahead of the occluding cold front. SBCAPE around 1000-1500 j/kg and a mid level wind max nosing in from the southwest will help the cause for stronger storms. The strong shear points toward the potential for some organization and bowing segments.

Once the front moves east of the cwa during the late afternoon, the precipitation will diminish.

- A Period of Rain Thursday Night

As a frontal zone approaches from the west later Thursday, a wave is shown to develop along it while it tracks into MI. FGEN in the DGZ will lead to decent lift while upper level diffluence over the frontal zones supports deeper lift. A ridge of higher PWAT values gets drawn into the front as well, supporting an increased potential for some rain. Ensemble QPF trends have been going up, but overall amounts are looking light, generally under a quarter inch.

- Cooling trend into the weekend

A deepening mid level low in Ontario on Friday, lifts up to Southern Hudson Bay and into Quebec for Saturday. Northwest winds are shown to exist westward through the Canadian Prairies which will act to funnel the cooler air down into MI through the weekend. Ensemble temperature trends are lower so a chilly weekend is looking more likely with time. An increased potential for near or below freezing overnight lows is looking more likely with time. As for a warmup next week, an Alberta Clipper is shown to be dropping down into the Upper Plains Monday into Tuesday. Thus we could see temperatures drop or hold steady into mid week as this system passes by MI. We noted that the ensemble temperature trends for next week are lower for the most part. That decreases the potential for any significant warmup.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 717 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The pressure gradient will be tightening up today and that will lead to increasing winds. The low levels remain dry so conditions will remain VFR during the day, but tonight conditions will steadily moisten up leading to lowering ceilings. Some rain shower activity is expected tonight. With weak instability, an isolated thunderstorm or two is possible. Confidence for thunderstorms was not high enough to put them in the forecast at this time. We did add low level wind shear for several sites tonight as the low level jet moves in increasing the potential for impacts.

MARINE
Issued at 332 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

As the strengthening low pressure in the Plains moves in this direction today, surface winds will increase from the east. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect south of Grand Haven from 18z today through 10z Wednesday and will probably need to be extended further into the morning. North of Grand Haven, A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 18z today through 02z when it's upgraded to a Gale Warning. This is generally a 6 hr window of stronger winds over the northern nearshore zones during the evening and early overnight hours. Once the gales subside after 10z, a Small Craft Advisory will likely takes its place.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

We issued a Red Flag Warning earlier this morning after coordination with the DNR. Red Flag Conditions will be present today with highs into the 60s and 70s...increasingly windy conditions and RH values that will dip into the 20-30 pct range.
Those conditions combined with already dry fuels (Very High Fire Danger already) prompted the issuance of the Warning.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ037>040- 043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067.
Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ037>039-043>045-050-051-056-057.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>846.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ847>849.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ847>849.

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