Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montague, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 9:30PM Thursday June 21, 2018 4:15 AM EDT (08:15 UTC) Moonrise 2:07PMMoonset 1:36AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ872 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 245 Am Cdt Thu Jun 21 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
Today..East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northeast 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms this morning, then showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Friday..Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt. Showers likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Friday night..Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt overnight. Chance of showers in the evening. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ872 Expires:201806211400;;868691 FZUS63 KLOT 210745 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 245 AM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure of 29.7 inches over Iowa this morning will slowly move to central Illinois Friday morning and then to near Lake Erie on Saturday...as a weak ridge of high pressure remains stretched from the northern lakes region to New England. Weak low pressure will move across Ontario Saturday and into Quebec Saturday night. A trailing cold front will move south across the region Sunday night with high pressure of 30.2 inches moving across the Great Lakes on Monday. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-211400-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montague, MI
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location: 43.14, -87.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 210728
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
328 am edt Thu jun 21 2018
latest update...

synopsis short term long term marine

Synopsis
Issued at 316 am edt Thu jun 21 2018
a slow moving low pressure system centered over iowa will
lift into the southern great lakes region over the next
few days. This will result in an unsettled weather pattern
developing. Temperatures will likely end up below normal
over the next couple of days as well.

Short term (today through Saturday)
issued at 316 am edt Thu jun 21 2018
a couple of concerns with the forecast exist in the short term.

Fog this morning... Followed by showers timing and temperatures.

To start... There was some patchy dense fog around the
region... Mostly from kalamazoo to jackson region. Overall with the
mid and upper level clouds thickening up... It appears this fog
will not become widespread. Will therefore feature patchy fog to
start the morning.

Showers have been moving northeastward through northern indiana.

They have been weakening with time as they move away from the
better moisture. As the day progresses... This moisture axis shifts
steadily toward southwest parts of my cwa. Some high res models
are suggesting the showers could become numerous towards
kalamazoo. Will increase pops for southern parts of the
cwa... Mainly for this afternoon. The thunder risk looks low
through this evening... But some elevated instability is shown to
move in later tonight. Will therefore start to mention a risk for
a few storms then... And keep that risk into Saturday with a pesky
low around.

Temperatures should end up below normal into Saturday. Today with
some Sun will likely be the warmest day... But with the low moving
in Friday into Saturday... Temperatures should end up a couple of
degrees below normal.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 316 am edt Thu jun 21 2018
by late Saturday night, the weakening cut-off low with which we have
become so familiar will be over lower michigan on its trek northeast
into southern ontario. Light showers will be possible so long as the
low is anywhere close, so have maintained low pops through the end
of the day on Sunday. I still think we may get a sneaky
thunderstorm or two Sunday afternoon as a weak upper-level impulse
surges south over the great lakes. Such a scenario is dependent on
any breaks in cloud cover and associated pockets of modest
instability which is, at this stage in the forecast, hard to
discern. However, shear will be quite weak so i'm not concerned
about anything organized.

A high pressure system will settle over the region early next week
leading to seasonable temperatures and dry conditions. Relative
humidity percentages on Monday and Tuesday may dip to the upper 30s
across lake, osceola, and clare counties though weak winds in
association with the passing high pressure system overhead will
temper any fire concerns.

The pattern will remain progressive with a shortwave trough expected
to swing through by the mid to end of next week. Increasing warm air
advection ahead of the feature will help increase temperatures and
moisture with highs climbing back into the mid 80s and dew points
toward the 70 degree mark, respectively, Wednesday and Thursday.

There also looks to be a fairly good chance of showers and
thunderstorms by the end of the week, though there is quite a bit of
time for things to shake out between now and then. As such, i
capped pops at chance (e.G. 50% or so) areawide for this forecast
package.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1246 am edt Thu jun 21 2018
with calm winds and low-level moisture augmented from heavy
rainfall that fell last night, conditions have become favorable
for pockets of fog through the early morning hours at azo btl jxn.

Rather than playing the "catch up" game with amendments tonight
(e.G. I expect visibility to go back and forth between MVFR ifr
through the overnight period), I elected to have prevailing MVFR
visibilities at the southern TAF sites with 4-hour tempo groups
for ifr visibilities of 2sm at azo btl. At jxn, there seems to be
a better signal for denser fog so I have 1 2 visibility in that
tempo group. The fog is expected to abate fairly quickly after
sunrise as increasing winds aid in mixing in dry air into the
low-level stable layer.

The other concern for our southern TAF sites is the potential for
light showers starting toward daybreak in an elongated zone of
precipitation from the ohio river valley toward southern minnesota.

Numerical model guidance seems a bit too dry for my liking (e.G.

Again there is quite a bit of low-level moisture from the heavy
rain last night) so I added vcsh for now with the expectation
that later forecast packages will refine my forecast based on
observations. It is quite possible that -ra is added to
azo btl for Thursday afternoon by the 12z forecast package.

At mkg lan grr,VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
entire TAF period. Precipitation may near grr and lan toward the end
of the forecast period.

Finally, winds will pick up during the afternoon on Thursday and
gust to 15-20 kts at all TAF sites before quickly abating toward
sunset.

Marine
Issued at 316 am edt Thu jun 21 2018
easterly winds will increase somewhat over the next few days
as the low pressure system tracks eastward through the far
southern great lakes region. Currently it appears the values will
remain below headline criteria... But some values up around 20
knots are possible today for a few hours.

Hydrology
Issued at 1234 pm edt Tue jun 19 2018
look for minor rises on rivers streams along and south of i-94 over
the next couple of days. Around an inch of rain has fallen in that
region recently and the runoff continues.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Mjs
short term... Mjs
long term... Borchardt
aviation... Borchardt
hydrology... 04
marine... Mjs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 32 mi86 min NE 9.7 G 9.7 63°F 63°F1 ft1010.2 hPa (-1.2)61°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 37 mi26 min ESE 7 G 7 64°F 1010.5 hPa62°F
45029 43 mi26 min E 7.8 G 9.7 66°F 69°F1 ft1010.3 hPa60°F
45013 44 mi69 min NNW 3.9 G 3.9 57°F 56°F1 ft1011 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 46 mi26 min NE 4.1 G 4.1 59°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 48 mi36 min NNE 5.1 G 8.9 61°F 1011.9 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI40 mi21 minSE 410.00 miFair60°F57°F90%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11E10NE10E8E8E9E8NE6E8E8NE6W4E6W8NW6W4W3--N4CalmNE5E3CalmSE4
1 day agoNE7NE7E6NE3NE5E8E9E10NE7E9E8E11E8NE10E8E9NE6NE5NE8NE7NE8E8E11E8
2 days agoSW14W6S5S6S9SW10W10SW7SW6W9W7W7NW5NW5NW4NW4NW6N4N7N6N8N6NE6NE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.