Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cape Neddick, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 4:17PM Saturday November 18, 2017 10:44 AM EST (15:44 UTC) Moonrise 7:29AMMoonset 5:50PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 938 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.gale watch in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday evening...
Rest of today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..S winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain. Patchy fog.
Sun..S winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming W 20 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Rain.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 30 kt. Gusts up to 45 kt, decreasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Mon..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ100 938 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. High pressure will shift off to the east today as low pressure moves in to the north of the gulf of maine. Southerly flow will develop in warm air advection overnight. Low pressure to our north will drag a robust cold front across the waters on Sunday. The result will be strong gusty winds Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. High pressure returns on Monday and will remain in place through the remainder of the forecast period.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cape Neddick, ME
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location: 43.16, -70.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 181437
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
937 am est Sat nov 18 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will briefly be in control of the region today as
we sit in between storm systems. Strong low pressure is forecast
to move through new york and into the st. Lawrence tonight into
Sunday. Strong southerly flow ahead of it will keep temperatures
on the mild side... Which should keep the bulk of the
precipitation falling as rain. Some frozen precipitation is
possible in the higher terrain and northern valleys though at
onset. That low pressure will drive a strong cold front through
the area Sunday night. Gusty winds are expected right through
Monday... Along with snow showers in and northwest of the
mountains.

Near term today
930am update...

have updated the forecast primarily to adjust onset time of
precipitation. First wave moving through upstate new york
currently is expected to bring primarily cloud cover as it
arrives in about 3 hours with precip drying up as it arrives.

Better shot at rain comes this evening. Have also tweaked high
temperatures today based on morning sounding analysis. Steep low
level inversion exists this morning, and with cloud cover
increasing as the day GOES on, it may be difficult to warm out
of the mid 40s.

7am update ...

minor update. Have dropped temperatures a few degrees in
sheltered valleys to reflect the morning observations.

Original discussion...

weak high pressure is over the region early this morning, which
combined with the clear skies has resulted in temperatures in
the teens across much of the area. Low pressure over the great
lakes will intensify and move up the st lawrence valley later
today into tonight. The first signs of the approaching system
are already present as a warm layer begins to nose with
observations above 2,000ft reporting temps in the mid 20s and
rising. Temperatures will continue to warm today with all but
the highest elevations above freezing by later afternoon. Clouds
will also move in throughout the day in advance of the next
system.

Short term tonight and Sunday
As the warm frontal precipitation approaches the region this
evening it will be a race between the approaching precipitation,
radiational cooling and warm air advection to determine the
precipitation type. For most of the region from the foothills
through the coastal plain temperatures will be above freezing
and light rain will begin early in the evening and continue
through the night. The forecast is not so clear cut further
north. In the mountains, the warm air will begin to come in
aloft with the peak of the warm nose expected around 6,000ft.

This still leaves a portion of our elevated terrain below
freezing with a mix possible through about 2,000ft. In the
northern mountain valleys such as berlin, rangeley, and jackman
the temperatures may struggle to reach freezing at all during
the day, which would result in a brief period of freezing
drizzle and light icing as the precipitation approaches. Without
any blocking high pressure to hold the cold air in place the
warmth is expected to take over and transition everything over
to rain by daybreak. With so much uncertainty in the
precipitation type for the north have opted to hold off on
issuing an winter headlines as the first few hours of sunshine
today may largely determine tonight's precipitation type.

Moving into the day on Sunday the core of the system aloft
drives a cold front through the region by midday and there will
be a quick switch over to snow and temperatures drop rapidly
behind the front. The precipitation will end almost as fast as
the temperatures drop so little accumulation is expected south
of the notches. Along the canadian border, the front will bring
upslope flow which will result in continuing snow into the
evening on Sunday.

Along with a switch to snow the arrival of the front and cold
air will bring gusty winds becoming west to northwest through
the afternoon on Sunday. Wind gusts to 40mph are expected
through much of the area Sunday afternoon.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
Sun night will be a strong CAA regime across the region behind
the departing cold front. Steadily dropping temps... Gusty
winds... And upslope snow showers are expected. Wind direction is
not the most favorable for significant snow totals in upslope
zones... But a couple inches are possible where wnwly flow can
be maximized. Winds should also stay gusty even
overnight... Though the best chance for strong wind gusts looks
to hold off until mon.

Mixing should increase to around h8 during the day mon... Where
ensemble forecasts have a 1 to 2 standard deviation wind speed
anomaly tracking thru SRN and central new england. Those mixing
depths may allow for some 40 kt wind gusts to mix down to the
surface... Especially across SRN zones closer to the speed max. I
increased wind gusts beyond the typically wind gust factor to
account for this.

The pattern becomes more zonal thru midweek after mon. Fast
moving flow aloft will limit precip chances... Though any passing
s WV may increase coverage of upslope snow showers.

Deterministic model guidance and ensembles favor Wed night thu
time period for the next trof to cross the area. There is pretty
significant model difference in the depth and impact of this
wave. The 18.00z ECMWF favors a stronger phase between NRN and
srn streams... And so brings larger impacts to the local area.

The cmc and GFS favor a passing front with low pressure farther
offshore. With lean towards that scenario... With higher pop in
the high terrain.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
Short term through Saturday night ... VFR conditions will erode
to MVFR from west to east by afternoon as increasing cloud cover
approach and lower in advance of the warm front. Light freezing
precipitation is possible across the north tonight before
switching over to rain. Ifr conditions will continue overnight
and into Sunday. An increasing LLJ may result in wind shear for
a period of Sunday morning before the winds are able to mix to
the surface. Sunday a cold front crosses the region with gusty
winds.

Long term... With wly flow dominating thru midweek...VFR
conditions will prevail in downsloping. At hie upslope flow will
keep the clouds around for most of mon... Some local ifr is
possible in shsn... But not likely. Surface wind gusts during the
day Mon at all terminals may gust to near 40 kts... With
widespread 30 kt gusts expected.

Marine
Short term through Saturday night ... High pressure will move
east away from our waters as low pressure intensifies over the
great lakes and passes to our north. Southerly flow in warm
advection will move over the waters but is expected to remain
below advisory level. A cold front will cross the waters on
Sunday with wind gusts to 45mph expecting in cold air advection
behind the front and a gale watch has been issued for Sunday
afternoon.

Long term... Strong CAA continues Sun night... With
gales likely outside of the bays. Gales may continue on the
outer waters thru mon... Before gradually diminishing Mon night
into tue. A transition to zonal... Fast moving flow may keep
conditions near SCA thresholds for much of the period.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
anz150>152-154.

Near term update... Kimble
short term... Curtis
long term... Legro


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 9 mi101 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 37°F 49°F1014.4 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 12 mi45 min S 1.9 38°F 19°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 13 mi45 min NW 4.1 G 5.1 35°F 1013.4 hPa (-0.7)13°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 15 mi60 min W 1 36°F 1014 hPa15°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 34 mi39 min 52°F2 ft
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 35 mi55 min WSW 5.8 G 7.8 36°F 49°F1 ft1013.6 hPa (-0.6)24°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 44 mi101 min WSW 5.8 G 7.8 39°F 50°F1 ft1013.2 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH13 mi49 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy35°F12°F40%1013.5 hPa
Sanford, Sanford Regional Airport, ME18 mi49 minS 310.00 mi35°F14°F42%1014.1 hPa
Rochester - Skyhaven Airport, NH19 mi54 minN 010.00 miFair35°F14°F42%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from PSM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW23
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NW11W8W9NW5W5W5W7W4CalmSW4W5W7SW5SW5W3Calm
1 day agoSE13SE12SE11S5CalmNE5N6NW5NW7NW8NW6NW4W5W8W9W12W13W14
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2 days agoNW4CalmW4S4SE6E7E4E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmNW3SE3SE12SE13

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Neddick, Maine
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Cape Neddick
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Sat -- 04:42 AM EST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 10:48 AM EST     9.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:15 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:49 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:13 PM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:19 PM EST     8.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
86.23.920.80.51.53.45.87.99.39.68.87.14.72.30.6-0.20.11.63.86.17.98.7

Tide / Current Tables for Portsmouth Harbor Entrance, New Hampshire Current
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Portsmouth Harbor Entrance
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Sat -- 12:09 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:52 AM EST     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:33 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 08:34 AM EST     1.21 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:29 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:20 PM EST     -1.96 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:16 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:50 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:11 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:01 PM EST     0.99 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.2-0.9-1.6-1.7-1.6-1.3-0.60.51.11.210.90.5-0.6-1.5-1.9-1.9-1.7-1.2-0.20.710.90.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.