Wednesday, July26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sylvan Beach, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:33PM Wednesday July 26, 2017 12:40 AM EDT (04:40 UTC) Moonrise 8:27AMMoonset 9:40PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 743 Pm Edt Tue Jul 25 2017
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 knots or less. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..South winds less than 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming north 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..North winds less than 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 56 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201707260315;;831308 FZUS51 KBUF 252343 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 743 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-260315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sylvan Beach, NY
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location: 43.17, -75.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 260003
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
803 pm edt Tue jul 25 2017

Synopsis
Mostly cloudy, light rain showers and cool temperatures will
prevail through the evening as remnants of a surface low
continues to impact the area. High pressure will bring quiet
weather on Wednesday. The next storm system to impact the
region will occur on Thursday.

Near term through Wednesday night
800 pm edt update...

forecast is in great shape. A few stubborn lingering light rain
showers are still ongoing across the region, but these will
soon end. Temps are in the uppr 50s low 60s and are expected to
fall into the low mid 50s by sunrise. Copious amounts of low-lvl
moisture is present and high pressure will build over the
region tonight. This combination will most likely lead to
widespread fog across the area. Some locations could become
especially dense before sunrise. Fog should lift fairly quickly
after sunrise. For more information about the forecast, please
read the previous forecast discussion below.

340 pm edt update...

mostly cloudy skies and periodic light rain showers are the main
story today as the upper lvl trough axis is just east of the area
and dry air is slow to move in aloft. By 00z tonight, the mid-
lvl ridge will start to nudge east and the surface high will
start to have an impact. Dry air is currently being advected at
mid and uppr levels and will eventually dry the low-levels
enough that the activity over the region will stop. By midnight,
the mid-lvl ridge will shift far enough east and the subsidence
from the anti-cyclonic flow aloft will erode part of the cloud
coverage and dense fog is likely to form over the area. Temps
this afternoon feel much more like fall as they are currently in
the low mid 60s across central ny and mid uppr 60s across nepa.

Temps may rise a couple more degrees today but not much more.

Expect temps to fall into the low mid 50s overnight.

Wednesday will be a nice and dry day as the sfc high pressure
continues to control the weather. The atmos at mid-lvls seems to be
too dry for showers to develop during the afternoon, thus decided to
take the mention of showers out of the forecast. Return flow will
develop over the region Wednesday afternoon and WAA will re-develop.

Thus, cloud coverage will increase over the region. Temps Wed will
rise into the low mid 70s in the afternoon and fall into the low mid
60s overnight.

Short term Thursday through Friday
335 pm update...

main concerns in the short term remain focused on the next storm
system which could potentially impact the region Thursday and Friday.

An upper trough will dig sewd through the great lakes into the
northeast Thursday with an associated surface trough cold front
sliding across the region. The primary concern will be the location
and intensity of a trailing surface low on the SRN flank of the
trough which is currently expected to track ewd along the pa md
border. Earlier guidance had the low further to the north..Which
placed the swath of heaviest rain across the SRN tier of ny and ne
pa. However, the latest models are trending the track to the south,
which keeps the heaviest band south of the scranton w-b area. There
still remains some uncertainty, and there may be some fluctuation
back to the north before Thursday, so we are not out of the woods
yet with respect to the heavy rain potential.

During the day Thursday as the front drops south through the area,
scattered showers and storms are possible. Bl CAPE values should be
around 500-1000 j kg and deep layer shear roughly 25 to 35 kt.

Steepening lapse rates and pwats around 1-1.25" should make
conditions susceptible for scattered convection. Will need to watch
these storms due to the potential of heavy rain, hail and strong
winds. The front is expected to push through fairly quickly and then
stall out Thursday night to our south. The surface low in the ohio
valley will track along the path of least resistance and follow the
trough through the mid-atlantic region... Focusing most of the
forcing and deep layer moisture out ahead of and also to the
north NE of the system. The low is expected to strengthen as it
nears the coast during the day Friday, and even more so when it move
off shore. There is some indication of a deformation zone forming on
the back side of the system, which if the low is further to the
north may hit NE pa or parts of S sern ny with another round of
heavy rain. Will need to keep an eye on this evolution. A secondary
upper wave rounds the bottom of the trough late Friday Fri night and
is expected to have enough momentum to kick the sfc low to the N ne
out of the area.

Rainfall amts with this system are too uncertain to mention at this
time, but the potential for 1-2" or more is not completely out of
the question. There may be locations that only see light rain with
the initial front and scattered convection Thursday and nothing else
all day Friday.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
335 pm update...

most of the weekend looks dry as heights build behind the departing
system and high pressure at the surface builds in. At this time it
appears the ridge axis shifts to the east by Monday and the next
system starts to drop in across the great lakes. Highs this weekend
will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s, with night times lows in the
50s and 60s. Should be a much welcomed and needed break from the
active wet pattern most of central ny and NE pa has been in for a
while.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure will slowly build into the region overnight which
will cause some of the cloud coverage to dissipate. Overall,
since the sfc is very saturated and light and variable winds
will prevail tonight, ifr fog is likely to develop at all taf
sites tonight and become especially dense at kelm. Fog is
expected to lift shortly after sunrise and all sites are
expected to develop aVFR CU field by mid afternoon. The next
storm system will start to move into the region late Wed night.

Winds will be light and variable through sunrise, then become
southerly around 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

wed...VFR.

Thursday and Friday... Chance of showers-storms with associated
restrictions.

Saturday and Sunday... MainlyVFR.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Kah
near term... Kah
short term... Bjt
long term... Bjt
aviation... Kah


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 42 mi41 min SE 4.1 G 6 65°F 1023.2 hPa (+0.5)58°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 94 mi41 min SW 5.1 G 5.1 62°F 1024.7 hPa (+0.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 96 mi41 min 58°F 1023.8 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY16 mi47 minN 010.00 miOvercast63°F61°F93%1023.3 hPa
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY22 mi48 minN 010.00 miOvercast63°F59°F87%1024.1 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmNW8W4NW8W7W8W6W8W9W9NW7NW8W7W7W7W8NW4NW5NW3W4N4NW3Calm
1 day agoE7SE7SE12SE6S4E6E73E7E7S4NE4NE10E10NE7E9E8NE9NE8E6E4CalmNE4Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmE3E3SE4CalmE5E5E6NE6E8E6E7NE5E6NE11E7E7E9E7E8NE8NE7E7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.