Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rochester, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:10PM Thursday August 17, 2017 9:10 PM EDT (01:10 UTC) Moonrise 12:47AMMoonset 3:52PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 737 Pm Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning...then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear...then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 71 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201708180315;;544459 FZUS51 KBUF 172337 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 737 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-180315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rochester, NY
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location: 43.17, -77.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 172357
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
757 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017

Synopsis
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a well-organized low
pressure system over upper michigan will cross western and north-
central new york tonight, with more scattered activity possible
Friday afternoon as the low center slowly passes to our north. An
upper level disturbance will bring another chance for showers
Saturday before high pressure dries things out for the latter half
of the weekend into Monday. Temperatures will run near to slightly
above-normal through the weekend, with warmer temperatures in the
mid 80s possible next week.

Near term through Friday
Water vapor imagery showing a well defined circulation pushing into
lake superior this evening. A warm front associated with this
low is currently moving northeast across the lower great lakes.

Regional radars showing a broad area of rain with a few embedded
heavier convective elements tracking across western new york.

This activity will continue to move eastward through midnight.

Marginal instability will greatly limit any severe threat, but
could have brief very heavy downpours, especially along the
southern tier with precipitable water values in excess of 2
inches.

The low level jet axis fueling the band of precipitation will cross
the forecast area tonight, with the bulk of the precipitation
exiting the eastern edge of the forecast area Friday morning.

However, more scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely Friday
afternoon, as the region will remain under the influence of
troughing from the surface through the upper levels, as the large,
occluded low slowly tracks to our northwest from the up of michigan
into western quebec. However, with the LLJ and associated moisture
passing to our east, it will not be quite as muggy, with highs in
the upper 70s, to lower 80s along the lake ontario plain, wheres
downsloping southwesterly flow will bump temps up a couple of
degrees.

Short term Friday night through Monday night
By Friday night, a cold front will have passed through the region,
bringing in cold air advection behind it enough to drop 850mb
temperatures to around 10c. Combined with lake temperatures around
22c, this could produce showers overnight but will most likely
result in low clouds because of a low cap and very dry air above
850mb.

On Saturday, a secondary trough will bring another frontal boundary.

This combined with diurnal heating may produce showers inland during
the afternoon. Saturday will have the coolest temperatures of the
weekend, with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.

A broad area of high pressure will build over the region Sunday,
accompanied by warm and dry air, bringing us back to seasonal
temperatures (near 80). High pressure will continue into Monday,
where temperatures will begin to climb back up to the low to mid
80s. Monday night, the ridge will still be over the eastern united
states, with low temperatures near normal in the 60s.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday
This period will be dominated by a steadily amplifying longwave
trough over eastern canada and the lower great lakes. This will lead
to notably lower day to day temperatures... Although at the onset of
the time frame... Our temperatures will be well above normal. As for
the day to day details...

our region will find itself between systems on Tuesday... As high
pressure anchored off the coast and a cold front approaching from
the upper great lakes will support a very warm and increasingly
humid environment. Temperatures should easily climb into the mid to
upper 80s across the lake plains and in the valleys. This airmass
will also be increasingly unstable... And while the vast majority of
the day will be rain free... Some showers and thunderstorms will be
possible later in the day. This will mainly be the case over the
western counties where lake breeze interactions and or the presence
of a pre-frontal trough could focus convection.

A cold front will then push southeast across our forecast area
Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Will maintain high chc pops for
now... But can easily envision these pops being raised to at least
likely as model consistency and forecast confidence increases.

Expansive high pressure over the upper mississippi valley Wednesday
afternoon will gradually settle to the southeast across the lower
great lakes and ohio valley by Thursday. This will allow for
significant improvement in our weather with fair weather
returning... Along with a pronounced turn to cooler and more
comfortable (lower dew points) conditions. Temperatures by Thursday
will average at least 5 deg f below normal.

Aviation 00z Friday through Tuesday
Conditions should remainVFR with area of rain and embedded
thunderstorms his evening, with brief periods of MVFR ifr
possible in heavier -ra tsra. As the atmosphere becomes more
saturated in the wake of the evening convection, we may see the
development of MVFR cigs, with ifr possible across the higher
terrain of the southern tier, after 06z.

Conditions will improve toVFR after 12z, as low level moisture
mixes out and slightly drier air moves into the region. However,
with troughing lingering across the region, expect more scattered -
shra -tsra to develop Fri afternoon, especially inland from the
lakes.

Outlook...

Friday night... MainlyVFR with scattered showers and thunderstorms
tapering off in the evening.

Saturday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers.

Sunday and Monday...VFR except for late night and early morning
valley fog with local ifr.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms late.

Marine
Winds will become southerly tonight as a warm front moves
northeast of the area, directing greater wave action into
canadian waters. Low pressure will then move slowly from the
western great lakes Friday to southern quebec by Saturday. This
will bring an increase in southwesterly winds to the eastern
great lakes, with small craft advisory conditions probable by
Friday afternoon for lake erie, and Saturday for lake ontario.

Winds and waves will decrease by Sunday as high pressure builds
into the ohio valley and eastern great lakes.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tma wood
near term... Tma wood
short term... Rsh zaff
long term... Rsh
aviation... Tma wood
marine... Hitchcock tma wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 7 mi71 min E 6 G 8 74°F 1011.2 hPa (-1.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 7 mi41 min 74°F 1009.6 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 33 mi81 min E 16 G 18 72°F 72°F2 ft1010 hPa (-2.5)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 59 mi71 min SSE 4.1 G 8 71°F 1009.8 hPa (-1.4)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY4 mi17 minSE 710.00 miLight Rain75°F66°F74%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SE5SE4SE6SE6SE5E8E9SE7E10SE10SE8SE7
1 day agoW3SW5W3W3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmSW5E7NE7NE7NE9N8N7NE6NE9NE7NE7NE6E4SE4
2 days agoSW6SW8SW9SW7SW7SW8SW7SW6SW7SW6SW7SW7W9W7NW8S3N14N5W6SW6W5W4SW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.