Saturday, April20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rochester, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:00PM Saturday April 20, 2019 4:54 AM EDT (08:54 UTC) Moonrise 8:32PMMoonset 6:22AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1029 Pm Edt Fri Apr 19 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Patchy fog. Periods of rain. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Scattered showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Partly Sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..Northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..West winds less than 10 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west less than 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. The water temperature off rochester is 40 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201904200915;;194992 FZUS51 KBUF 200229 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1029 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-200915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rochester, NY
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location: 43.17, -77.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 200652
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
252 am edt Sat apr 20 2019

Synopsis
A cutoff low will move very slowly from western pennsylvania today
to the mid atlantic by Sunday evening. This will produce
periodic showers over the weekend, but there will be plenty of
dry time as well. Temperatures will remain at or a little above
normal through the weekend and into early next week.

Near term through today
A cutoff low will slowly move from kentucky into ohio today,
with a weakening surface low becoming displaced north of the
upper level low with time. A mid-level boundary extending
northeast of this low across wny provided a focus for steady
rain showers, but this boundary will weaken and meander
northward today with the northward track of the upper level
low. As a result, steady rain showers will taper off, with a
substantial decrease in shower coverage through the course of
the day, with plenty of rain free time by afternoon. The
exception is across far western ny where a diffulent flow aloft
will help maintain steadier showers for much of the day. There
will continue to be areas of fog, especially across higher
terrain and south of the lakes.

Temperatures will depend on the position of the frontal
boundary. Highs will only be in the 50s across the niagara
frontier, and even 40s along the lake ontario shore. Meanwhile
on the warm side of the boundary, it will be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s from allegany county across the finger lakes to
points southeast of lake ontario. Rochester remains a very
difficult call for Saturday, being located right near the
boundary. There may be a very large temperature gradient most of
the day across monroe county, with 40s and 50s near hamlin and
70s near mendon.

Short term tonight through Tuesday night
Saturday night the closed upper level low will drift from the ohio
valley into the virginias... With its attendant surface low devolving
into a remnant trough across far western new york. In tandem with a
deformation zone aloft... The latter will serve as the focus for
scattered to numerous showers across extreme far western new york
during the evening... With these decreasing in coverage overnight
as available forcing becomes weaker and more diffuse. Elsewhere
mainly dry conditions will prevail... With low temperatures ranging
from the lower to mid 40s across far western new york to the upper
40s across the finger lakes and eastern lake ontario regions.

Sunday through Monday the closed upper level low will continue to
slowly drift eastward and eventually move off the new england
coastline. Periodic spokes of shortwave energy and attendant deeper
moisture rotating around the upper low in concert with diurnal
heating destabilization will lead to the development of scattered
showers mainly inland from the lakes on Sunday... With these then
slowly receding eastward Sunday night and Monday as the upper low
pulls further away from our region. Have accordingly maintained
chance pops for these... With these maximized across inland areas
Sunday afternoon and again across our eastern zones Monday
afternoon... When daytime heating will lead to the greatest areal
coverages. Otherwise... Temperatures through this period will remain
above average... With daytime highs away from lake influences warming
from the upper 50s to mid 60s on Sunday to the 65-70 range on Monday
as the upper low and its attendant cool pool aloft slide off to our
east.

Monday night any leftover showers across our eastern zones should
finally come to an end early as the upper low drifts out to sea...

with weak high pressure otherwise providing our region with a mainly
dry and quiet night with lows mainly in the mid to upper 40s.

Finally... Tuesday and Tuesday night should feature at least the
approach (if not outright passage) of the next frontal system...

though the exact timing of this feature remains questionable as the
12z runs of the GFS gem have slowed considerably compared to both
their previous continuity and the 00z ecmwf. Given the latter and
our previous forecast which also favored a much faster solution...

for now have continued to lean more heavily toward the latter with
another cold frontal passage and highest potential for some
showers embedded thunder Tuesday afternoon and evening... Though
this eventually could be delayed to as late as Tuesday night
and or Wednesday should the slower guidance turn out to be right.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
Near to above normal temperatures are anticipated during this
period... As a progressive split flow will make its way across the
lower 48. The northern tier of the country... Including the great
lakes region... Will be under the influence of the low amplitude
northern branch... So the threat for any significant weather will be
greatly minimized. That being said... The confidence in the details
is notably lower than normal. All of the ensemble packages have
shown a wide array of solutions with little if any run to run
consistency. Will thus use a blend of HPC guidance with ECMWF as the
basis for this three day period.

Improving conditions are expected across the region on Wednesday...

as a strong shortwave and its attendant surface low will cross new
england and exit off the coast. In its wake... High pressure will
gradually build across our forecast area. After some leftover
showers east of lake ontario... This should support generally
decreasing clouds for the midday and afternoon.

A progressive mid level ridge within the northerly branch will cross
our region with its associated sfc high Wednesday night and Thursday
morning. This will promote fair dry weather for the bulk of the 24
hour period... Although there are suggestions that some moisture
could sneak north within the return flow late Thursday to support
showers in the southern tier. Will not try to get too 'cute' with
the forecast from this range... Especially given the inconsistencies
in the guidance... So will broad brush with 15 pops for now.

Conditions should deteriorate Thursday night and Friday though as a
shortwave in the northern branch will sweep across the great lakes
and attempt to phase with a closed low over the deep south. While
there is very little confidence in whether these systems can
phase... There is some belief that some of the gomex moisture in the
closed southern system can get entrained into the passing feature
over our region. Have thus introduced low chc pops for Thursday
night and Friday.

Aviation 06z Saturday through Wednesday
A stalled frontal zone will bisect the region overnight with
lots of low moisture and showers across wny. Ifr flight
conditions will be widespread, with localized visibility down
to a quarter mile across higher terrain and south of the lakes.

Conditions will improve between 15-18z when the front lifts
northward and drier air moves back into the region.

Low moisture will increase across far wny this evening when the
surface low tracks into west-central new york and sets up a weak
northerly flow at kbuf kiag kroc with ifr ceilings and fog
likely.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers.

Monday through Wednesday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers.

Marine
Northeasterly winds will continue through this morning as low
pressure moves into western pennsylvania and high pressure
remains anchored from the western great lakes to central quebec.

Moderate to strong northeasterlies will diminish and briefly
become ene before diminishing further as the weak low passes
near the area tonight. Small craft advisories are in effect for
the lakes and portions of the rivers as outlined below. Winds
and waves will be much lower on Sunday.

Equipment
The kbuf WSR-88D radar will be down most of next week for a
scheduled upgrade. The radar will be down beginning Monday morning
april 22, with a planned outage lasting 5 days until Friday april
26.

During the upgrade, the transmitter will be refurbished including
the installation of new fuses and cables. Some of the components
being replaced are original to the radar, which is now over 20 years
old. The transmitter refurbishment is the second major project of
the nexrad service life extension program, a series of upgrades and
replacements that will keep our nation's radars viable into the
2030's.

This is the second project in the nexrad service life extension
program. The first was the installation of a new signal processor.

The last two phases of the project are the refurbishment of the
pedestal, and refurbishment of equipment shelters. All phases are
expected to be complete in 2022.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lez040-
041.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon
for loz030.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
loz043>045.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for
loz042.

Synopsis... Apffel
near term... Apffel
short term... Jjr
long term... Rsh
aviation... Apffel
marine... Apffel
equipment... Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 7 mi54 min NNW 8 G 8.9 40°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 7 mi54 min 41°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 59 mi54 min N 8.9 G 9.9 38°F 1007.1 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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G26
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY4 mi60 minNE 1110.00 miOvercast42°F37°F85%1005.7 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3CalmCalmN8NE5NE4CalmN7NE6N11NE15N11NE11NE9NE13NE13NE10NE12NE12NE12NE14
G20
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1 day agoS11S14
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W7SW5CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmW3SW4CalmCalmCalmSE9SE9SE10SE7
G14
SE9E11
G16
E12E11E8E9E7SE9SE9SE8S7S17
G26
S8S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.