Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rochester, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 8:55PM Thursday June 21, 2018 10:15 AM EDT (14:15 UTC) Moonrise 1:28PMMoonset 12:57AM Illumination 57% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Niagara River To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 646 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Today..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less building to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 63 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201806211530;;876207 FZUS51 KBUF 211046 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 646 AM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-043-211530-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rochester, NY
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location: 43.17, -77.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 211158
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
758 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build towards the eastern great lakes region from
canada today. This feature will provide for a fine first day of
summer with seasonable temperatures and light winds. A storm system
will bring rain showers and some thunderstorms later Friday and
through the weekend.

Near term through tonight
A weak cold front this morning is dropping across the north
country, with what is now just a thinning band of clouds.

Behind this front, surface high pressure will build towards the
eastern great lakes from near james bay. This feature will provide
for plenty of sunshine, light winds, low humidity and seasonable
temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80f.

Tonight this surface high will track towards northern new england,
just to the north of our region. Clear skies will rule much of the
night and temperatures will drop to the cooler side, with lows
ranging from the mid to upper 40s to around 50f.

A storm system over the ohio valley will begin to send some high
clouds towards our region late tonight.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
A nearly stacked low pressure system across the ohio valley Friday
will gradually weaken as it moves across the lower great lakes
through Saturday night. Surface high pressure across the gulf of
maine will keep much of Friday dry with clear skies lasting the
longest east of lake ontario. Chances for showers will increase
across far western new york during the day as this low pressure
system moves closer.

On Friday night southerly 850mb winds will increase to around 35 kts
resulting in moisture advection and diffuse warm air advection in
the mid-levels. A diffluent flow aloft will also support lift,
followed by the passage of what's left of the upper level low late
Saturday. Although modest, these sources of large-scale lift support
likely categorical pops for Friday night and Saturday with most
areas bound to get at least some measurable precipitation. This
said, there will be breaks between the rain showers, so we are not
looking at a complete washout.

Instability will be limited, but perhaps just enough to support some
thunderstorms, especially on Saturday with the passage of the
trough. These should be fairly sparse in nature and rainfall amounts
should average a quarter to half inch outside of locally higher
amounts. 00z model consensus is slightly faster with the remnants of
this low which is expected to exit into new england Saturday night
with chances for showers diminishing from west to east.

Temperatures will average near to slightly above normal. Highs on
Friday will mainly be in the 70s, with Saturday perhaps a few
degrees cooler due to cloud cover and showers. Lows temperatures
will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s with some modest
downsloping across the lake plains on Friday night.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
An upper level trough axis will sharpen and move across the region
on Sunday with a cold front dropping south across western and north-
central ny. Model consensus is in good agreement with showers likely
with these features on Sunday. Instability parameters are very low
so only included slight chance for thunder.

Lingering chances for showers are in place Sunday night as models
show the parent mid level trough axis moving into new england. Temps
Sunday should reach into the 70s during the afternoon with dewpoints
in the 60s ahead of the front still supporting lingering humidity.

Behind the front, dewpoints will slip back into more comfortable
levels in the 50s Sunday night where overnight temps should slip
back into the 50s with light northwest winds and some breaks in sky
cover.

Canadian high pressure then looks to build over nys Monday and
Tuesday in the wake of the storm system and mid level trough axis.

The high is then forecast to shift off the east coast through
Wednesday. This surface high will provide our region with dry
weather through mid week. Temps will be seasonable Monday then will
rise a little bit each day through mid-week. Highs in the 70s on
Monday should warm into the 80s by Wednesday as southerly 850mb
winds advect warmer air into the region.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
For the 12z tafsVFR flight conditions are found, and these
conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period with
light winds as surface high pressure remains near the region. A
weak cold front will drop across the north country this
morning, with mid level clouds over the north country
diminishing through the next 6 hours.

A warm front will approach wny late tonight. Mid and high level
clouds will begin to thicken across the region after 06z.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR.

Saturday...VFR MVFR... Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Sunday... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday...VFR.

Marine
A weak cold front will drop across lake ontario this morning, with a
northeast wind following. This wind will increase through the day
some, with speeds just over 10 knots... That will produce 3 foot
waves along the southern and southwestern shoreline of lake ontario.

Otherwise surface high pressure building towards the eastern great
lakes later today will bring lighter winds and minimal waves on the
eastern great lakes. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible
through the weekend, though for wind speeds and waves, small craft
advisory conditions are not likely to be meet.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Thomas
short term... Apffel
long term... Apffel smith
aviation... Thomas
marine... Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 7 mi75 min S 11 G 15 60°F 1014.2 hPa (+3.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 7 mi51 min 60°F 1013.3 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 33 mi85 min NE 14 G 16 59°F 59°F2 ft1012.8 hPa (+2.5)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 59 mi75 min ENE 18 G 22 61°F 1013.9 hPa (+2.4)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY4 mi21 minNE 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F53°F68%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4SE4CalmCalmSW5NW43N7N4E3SE3CalmCalmCalmW3SW5SW5CalmSW3W3NE7E11NE13NE14
1 day agoNE7NE8NE10E8N73NE11NE6NE6E3CalmCalmW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW4Calm
2 days agoW19
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NW11SW11W12W12W14
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W8W7NW10NW10N10N11N11N12N8N9N10N11NE15NE12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.