Saturday, December15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rochester, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 4:37PM Saturday December 15, 2018 12:08 AM EST (05:08 UTC) Moonrise 12:49PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 51% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 941 Am Est Fri Dec 14 2018
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers Sunday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. Snow and rain showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Monday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 40 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201812142215;;783800 FZUS51 KBUF 141441 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 941 AM EST Fri Dec 14 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-142215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rochester, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.17, -77.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbuf 150319
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1019 pm est Fri dec 14 2018

Synopsis
High pressure centered off the atlantic coastline will keep milder
air over our region through the weekend. Meanwhile low pressure over
the southeastern states will then move up along the east coast later
in the weekend and bring the chance of some rain, especially to the
southern tier. Following the passage of this system, colder weather
will then return early next week and bring the potential for some
lake effect snow southeast of the lakes.

Near term through Saturday
While it is certain that our region will remain within a relative
col and can therefore expect dry weather overnight... The cloud
cover portion of the forecast (and consequently any corresponding
fog potential) remains considerably more tricky to pin down. While
current satellite imagery and surface observations still show a
fair amount of mid and high cloud cover streaming across the area
along with some embedded breaks... The same observational data also
shows a fairly large area of much lower cloud cover lurking not that
far upstream over far western lake ontario and nearby southern ontario...

with the southern portions of this already trying to make inroads
into the niagara frontier and the north country. Latest guidance
still suggests that this area will continue to spread into our
region while gradually evolving into a narrowing band of lower
clouds through the night... With at least some of these crossing the
area for a time between the late evening and overnight hours.

Meanwhile... Plenty of cirrus-level cloudiness associated with the
large system over the southern states should continue to stream
across the area through at least the early overnight hours... Before
possibly thinning out a bit from northwest to southeast late.

With the above in mind... We should see skies average out mostly
cloudy overall for the rest of the night... With some partial clearing
possibly developing behind the aforementioned swath of lower clouds
late... However the latter remains rather questionable at this point
given current observational trends. Given this thinking... Any fog
potential should be best in areas that see the thinner cirrus
last the longest before any lower clouds arrive (i.E. Across the
southern tier and interior portions of the finger lakes)... As well
as in any areas of partial clearing that might develop across the
niagara frontier late. This said... The exact extent of any such fog
remains rather difficult to pinpoint at this time.

High pressure will build over the area Saturday and will ensure
a dry day. Usually difficult to get rid of lower clouds underneath
a strengthening subsidence inversion this time of year... Which may
result in lower clouds hanging on through the morning early afternoon
hours across interior sections... And even then at least some cirrus
should remain in place areawide. Most guidance suggesting more clouds
than Sun for Saturday which may hold temperatures down a bit, but
still looking at above normal temperatures in the upper 30s to
lower mid 40s.

Short term Saturday night through Tuesday night
A closed and fairly vertically stacked low pressure system will be
transiting from kentucky toward the jersey shore from Saturday
night into Sunday. Moisture will be streaming northward ahead of
this system before behind dynamically pulled back in the trowal
region and being realized as rainfall in an area of isentropic
ascent centered in the 295-305k layer around its northern periphery.

This area of ascent will try to gradually nudge northward toward our
area overnight Saturday night into the early part of Sunday. Run-to-
run consistency with this development is not particularly good,
however the majority of the 12z guidance has trended to keep the
vast majority of the precipitation field largely to our south. As
such, pops were largely lowered across the board during the weekend,
however a chance of some rain will still be possible over the
southern tier Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Temperatures at the onset of precipitation (if it occurs) will be
the biggest problem to deal with. At the moment, guidance that
develops precipitation has tended to be the warmest, while that that
fails to develop it has tended to be the coldest. This does make
sense as radiational cooling overnight would be more likely in a
drier scenario than a wet one, thus while some freezing rain could
be possible in pockets if the rain shield does manage to translate
into the southern tier, it would seem that if it does, most likely
places will be trending above freezing by that juncture.

A short period of quiet weather follows this system into the
remainder of the weekend before a very deep h5 wave shifts southward
toward lake ontario on Monday. A strong cold front will blast
through the area with gusty cold advection likely on Monday.

Inversion height rise rather rapidly and lake-induced instability
maximizes southeast of the lakes on Monday. This will be especially
true over lake ontario. Shear in the unstable layer reduces and a
period of maybe 9 or so hours of lake effect snow seems likely
southeast of the lakes. At the moment, with the better instability
and fetch off of lake ontario, accumulations were ramped up there,
however model trends will need to be monitored as higher resolution
guidance becomes available, as headlines in briefly moderate heavy
lake effect snow may be possible.

Temperatures really fall off a cliff behind the Monday cold front
briefly. Temperatures at 850 mb drop toward -16c east of lake
ontario on Monday night, which will drop surface lows toward the
single digits before reading start to recover from there.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
The deep upper level trough which briefly digs into new england
Monday night and Tuesday will exit by Wednesday morning, to be
replaced by a ridge surface and aloft building into the eastern
third of the nation. The building ridge and warm advection will
bring temperatures above average again for Wednesday and Thursday,
with highs in the low to mid 40s at lower elevations. Wednesday will
be dry with surface high pressure centered over the mid atlantic
states and a ridge extending northward into the eastern great lakes
and new england. Model guidance begins to diverge by Thursday. The
gfs is fastest with the next system, spreading rain into our area.

The canadian gem and ECMWF are slower, with rain not arriving until
Thursday night. With this in mind, kept pops low chance for Thursday
before ramping up Thursday night.

Model uncertainty continues Friday. The gfs, gem, and ECMWF all have
a trough moving through the great lakes and new england with
associated precipitation chances. The faster evolving GFS has enough
cold air moving into our region to possibly bring a rain snow mix or
change to wet snow late Thursday night and Friday, while the slower
ecmwf and gem would be warm enough for mainly rain. Given the
inherent uncertainty at day 7, went with a rain snow mix and
temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Looking a little further ahead, it does appear likely cold air will
return by next weekend. Model guidance shows typical variance in the
synoptic scale details, but in a broad sense a deep trough will
begin to carve out over central and eastern north america, allowing
colder air to move back into the great lakes and new england. Gefs
and cmce ensembles over the past few days show good support for
troughing and cold air becoming established most of the time for the
week between christmas and new years. Thus, it appears the warmup
this weekend and again later next week will be transitory with more
consistent winter weather on the horizon.

Aviation 03z Saturday through Wednesday
Overnight generalVFR conditions should tend to give way to
deteriorating conditions in developing lower stratus and or fog
over time... With most locations seeing at least a period of
MVFR ifr conditions developing. At this point... Feel that this
will be more due to lower stratus than fog... Though the latter
will certainly remain possible - particularly across the southern
tier where dewpoint depressions will be narrowest... And where
any lower clouds will take the longest to develop.

On Saturday... Some MVFR ifr restrictions (again primarily in
lingering lower ceilings) may hold on across interior portions of
the area (i.E. The southern tier interior finger lakes north
country into the late morning early afternoon hours... With
vfr conditions otherwise prevailing.

Outlook...

Saturday night and Sunday... MainlyVFR. A chance of rain with
mixed precipitation possible Saturday night early Sunday across
the southern tier.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR MVFR with a chance of snow showers.

Lake effect snow possible southeast of the lakes.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
Southeast to south winds will remain light on the lakes through
tonight. Northeast winds will freshen on the lakes Saturday into
Saturday night as low pressure works through the mid atlantic states
and high pressure becomes centered over the central great lakes. A
period of wind waves nearing small craft advisory criteria may
develop during this time period on the western end of lake
ontario and dunkirk to ripley lake erie.

The graident will relax on Sunday, before a cold front moves
across the lower great lakes late Sunday night or Monday morning
turning winds west then northwest with gusts potentially
reaching 30 knots. This period will likely require small craft
advisories Monday into Tuesday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jjr tma
near term... Jjr tma
short term... Fries
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Jjr tma
marine... Tma


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 7 mi68 min WSW 5.1 G 7 43°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 7 mi56 min 41°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 59 mi68 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 42°F 1022.4 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
Last
24hr
SE12
G16
S11
G15
S13
G19
S12
G17
S15
G21
S14
G20
S14
G18
S13
G18
S14
G18
S10
G17
S10
G14
S10
G15
S12
G17
S13
G18
S14
G18
S7
G11
S5
G9
S5
S7
G10
S9
G12
S12
G17
S9
G17
S6
G13
S10
G18
1 day
ago
SE8
G13
SE7
G14
SE13
G19
SE14
G23
SE14
G25
SE15
G24
SE13
G18
SE16
G22
SE11
G17
SE11
G18
SE12
G19
SE11
G16
SE15
G21
S12
G19
SE13
G18
S13
G17
SE8
G12
SE9
G13
SE12
G16
S11
G14
SE11
G15
S11
G15
SE11
G16
SE14
G21
2 days
ago
N7
G10
N9
N8
G11
N6
G9
N7
NW8
G12
NW11
N9
G12
NE14
G17
NE7
G11
NE9
G13
NE8
G13
NE13
G19
NE9
G12
NE5
NW4
G7
N7
NE4
G7
E3
E5
G8
E2
SE3
G6
SE9
G14
SE9
G15

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY4 mi14 minSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy37°F34°F89%1021.9 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
Last 24hrS5S4S6S4S4S4S3CalmSW3SW4SW7SW5SW4SW6S6S6S5SW4SW4SW7SW5SW5SW3W3
1 day agoSE6SE8SE7S4S4SE5SE6SE5SE4E5E6SE6SE5S7S6SW6S6S4S5S3S4S3S4SW5
2 days agoW7W7W6W7W5W6W4W5W4W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE9E8E10E10E8SE10E9E5SE8

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (0,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.