Monday, June17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rochester, NY

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:28AMSunset 8:54PM Monday June 17, 2019 7:27 AM EDT (11:27 UTC) Moonrise 8:18PMMoonset 4:47AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 731 Pm Edt Sun Jun 16 2019
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Mostly cloudy this evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Light and variable winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..West winds less than 10 knots becoming northwest. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers Wednesday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Rain during the day, then showers likely Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Scattered showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 52 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201906170300;;184728 FZUS51 KBUF 162335 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 731 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-170300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rochester, NY
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location: 43.17, -77.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 171027
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
627 am edt Mon jun 17 2019

Synopsis
A frontal boundary will remain stalled just south of the area
through Wednesday with a chance of a few showers at times across the
southern tier. Otherwise weak high pressure over southeast ontario
and quebec will keep the rest of the area mainly dry with
temperatures near average. Low pressure will then move through the
eastern great lakes Thursday with another round of more widespread
rainfall.

Near term through tonight
Satellite imagery showing increasing mid level clouds early this
morning across western ny, with mainly clear skies east of lake
ontario. Residual low level moisture and radiational cooling
overnight combined to produce some patchy fog. The fog is most
prevalent across the valleys of the western southern tier and
western finger lakes. The fog will dissipate by 8-9am.

An east-west oriented frontal zone will remain stalled today and
tonight from the ohio valley eastward across pennsylvania. Numerous
weak convectively augmented shortwaves and surface waves will
continue to move east along the frontal zone, keeping the bulk of
the more active weather to our south. Diurnal instability and
differential heating boundaries will combine with weak ascent from a
shortwave passing by to our south to support the chance of a few
scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm this
afternoon and evening across the western southern tier. Otherwise
the remainder of the area will stay dry with an increase in mid high
clouds today.

Most of the region will stay dry tonight. The exception will again
be the western southern tier. Another mid level vorticity maxima
will move east across central and northern pennsylvania, and may
support a few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm across
the southern tier.

Temperatures will be near average, with highs in the mid 70s in most
locations today. A light northeast breeze will keep the south shore
of lake ontario in the 60s. Areas near the pennsylvania state line
may also stay in the 60s with thicker cloud cover. Lows tonight will
be in the mid to upper 50s in most areas, with lower 50s east of
lake ontario.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
No major changes initially with the same old pattern in place
Tuesday. The pesky stationary frontal boundary will still be to our
south from roughly southern indiana east into the ohio valley and
along or near the mason dixon line. Again, with each passing
convectively augmented wave to our south a few showers or an
isolated stronger storm may develop or creep into the western
southern tier. Otherwise, a majority of the forecast area will more
than likely experience dry weather thanks in part to weak surface
ridging influencing the lower lakes. Highs will be right where they
should be for this time of year with mid to upper 70s.

Tuesday night, no significant change other than the stalled frontal
boundary to our south will move further away. With that said, weak
surface high over the lower lakes should maintain mainly dry weather
for our forecast area. Lows temperatures overnight will generally be
found in the mid 50s by daybreak.

Wednesday, weak surface high pressure should maintain mainly dry
conditions for a majority of the lower lakes. The only hiccup will
be potential for an isolated shower or stronger storm to develop
along any convergent boundaries over the western southern tier.

Otherwise, this should be the warmest day of the period with highs
climbing into the upper 70s near 80f.

A potential soaking rainfall Thursday...

a potent shortwave over the midwest and associated surface lows with
this system will head east Wednesday night. Latest 00z nam, gfs, and
now the ECMWF all pointing towards a "likely" wet second half of
this week. The question will be "how" much precipitation, as there
still remains a bit of uncertainty, mainly track and timing issues.

While a majority of the night should remain precipitation free, look
for increasing chances for precipitation across far western ny by
daybreak. Lows temperatures will more than likely occur early and
then hold steady overnight with upper 50s to low 60s by sunrise.

Thursday, two distinct areas of low pressure with the shortwave, one
well displaced to our south which will track along the mason dixon
line. The other low is forecast to track east across lake erie and
then our forecast area. With plentiful moisture in place (pwats in
excess of 1.5 inches) and deep lift, moderate to heavy rainfall at
times will be possible as this system moves across the region. It
wouldn't be out of the question that many locations could receive
rainfall totals of up to an inch, with localized areas exceeding
that total. Have again nudged up pops to categorical for all
locations south of lake ontario.

Thursday night, while the timing of the eventual exit of this system
is still up in the air, the weak sfc low will gradually head east
overnight. In its wake, look for some lingering showers across the
forecast area, which will slowly taper off from west to east by
Friday morning. Otherwise, with some clearing taking place behind
this system and surface high pressure builds in temperatures should
fall back into the 50s areawide by daybreak.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
General hgt rises will be found over the lower great lakes on
Friday... As high pressure centered over hudson bay will attempt to
nose south across the lower great lakes. While this should encourage
fair dry weather... There is some 'debate' among the various guidance
packages as to the amplitude of the mid level ridge that will be
centered to our west. A higher amplitude ridge may allow for a
subtle shortwave to drop to the south across our region with a
resulting shower threat. Will thus carry chc pops for Friday... But
am definitely leaning towards a mainly dry day.

There is greater confidence that dry weather will be in place for
Friday night and Saturday... As the mid level ridge will amplify with
its axis pushing east to our region.

As we close out this period though... The ridge axis will exit to our
east and open the door for the next shortwave and influx of moisture
to move into the lower great lakes region. This could lead to the
next round of showers to close out the weekend.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
Areas of low stratus will continue through early this morning across
the western southern tier with areas of ifr cigs. Elsewhere
radiational cooling and residual low level moisture allowed for
patchy fog to develop overnight. This will bring local ifr through
early this morning, with fog most prevalent across the valleys of
the southern tier and western finger lakes.

The fog and low stratus will dissipate by 12-13z, leaving mainlyVFR
to prevail. A few isolated to widely scattered showers and possibly
an isolated thunderstorm may develop during the afternoon across the
higher terrain of the southern tier and western finger lakes, but
coverage is expected to remain sparse with dry weather andVFR in
most areas. A few additional showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm will continue tonight across the western southern tier
as a weak wave of low pressure moves along the stalled frontal zone
over pennsylvania. Low stratus and possibly some fog may re-develop
overnight across the southern tier with local ifr possible.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR to MVFR in scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms, mainly across the southern tier.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR with isolated showers possible.

Thursday... MVFR ifr with periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms.

Friday... MVFR. A chance of showers.

Marine
A frontal zone will remain stalled from the ohio valley to
pennsylvania through Wednesday while weak high pressure settles into
southeast ontario and southern quebec. This will keep a weak
pressure gradient across the eastern great lakes, with light winds
and flat wave action.

Low pressure will track near the eastern great lakes on Thursday,
but the track and strength of the low is uncertain. Winds and waves
may approach small craft levels depending on the eventual strength
and track of this system.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hitchcock
near term... Hitchcock
short term... Ar
long term... Rsh
aviation... Hitchcock
marine... Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 7 mi28 min Calm G 1.9 56°F
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 33 mi48 min SSW 3.9 G 3.9 45°F 45°F44°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 59 mi28 min SSE 1 G 5.1 55°F 1016.6 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY4 mi34 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F51°F97%1016.5 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE8NE7NE6NE9E6NE63SW4W5SW5W3W3SW3SW4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW12
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SW9SW5SW5SW4CalmCalmN9N5NE8NE6NE5E4
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W8W9SW7SW6SW5SW7SW11SW10SW12SW9SW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.