Friday, February15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rochester, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:42PM Friday February 15, 2019 2:37 PM EST (19:37 UTC) Moonrise 1:14PMMoonset 3:39AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 639 Am Est Fri Feb 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through this evening...
Today..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west and increasing to 35 knot gales this afternoon. Rain showers through midday, then a chance of snow and rain showers late. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 10 to 13 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Tonight..West gales to 35 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots overnight. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 10 to 14 feet subsiding to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Lake effect snow showers likely in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow Sunday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds less than 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. The water temperature off rochester is 37 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201902151615;;968832 FZUS51 KBUF 151139 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 639 AM EST Fri Feb 15 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-151615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rochester, NY
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location: 43.17, -77.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 151808
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
108 pm est Fri feb 15 2019

Synopsis
Gusty winds from the west and southwest between 40 and 50 mph
will continue through the afternoon across the region. Falling
temperatures will then lead to scattered snow showers... With
some accumulating lake snow tonight for areas east of lake
ontario. Canadian high pressure will build across the great
lakes for the weekend... And this will supply our region with
temperatures that will average a few degrees below normal.

Near term through Saturday
Winds just barely scraping up toward wind advisory criteria
finally revealed themselves within the last couple of hours as
some sunshine associated with the mid- level dry slot moved
across the area. This has allowed the boundary layer to
destabilize enough to mix down the roughly 40 kts at the top of
it to the surface along the lake erie shoreline, in buffalo, and
across the thruway corridor toward rochester. As the dry slot
advances eastward, this should translate toward the east end of
lake ontario in jefferson county, as well.

Otherwise, the cold front has passed the majority of the area as
of this writing, and temperatures have been beginning to fall
from west to east. Some convergence is noted to be forming a
band of rain and snow on satellite over the niagara peninsula
in canada, and it would seem this should eventually translate
toward niagara county, however as the flow turns more westerly,
the gaps in ice east of point pelee eastward toward rondeau bay
on lake erie may set up a short period where they align with
open water north of long point. As the flow is trending more
westerly, a small band of snow showers seems probably to develop
around northern erie county and gradually sag southward while
becoming more disorganized as it loses its open water fetch.

A second band seems probable to form farther south as the open
water along the lake shore aligns for a period late this
afternoon and evening into chautauqua county. This band would be
more likely to result in minimal accumulations through the
evening, however neither band appear ominous at the moment.

For lake ontario, cold advection takes a bit longer to get
things going. However, even as it does, both the quick trend of
the flow from SW to NW and more shear than we like to see will
be working against it. Further, inversion heights never really
get impressively high, and while we do bisect the dendritic
growth layer, the residence time of lake effect snow banding
should be short enough in any location to preclude substantial
accumulation above minimal advisory criteria.

Things wind down rapidly on Saturday with northwest flow and
colder than normal temperatures ruling the roost. This occurs as
canadian high pressure takes increasing influence of our
weather.

Short term Saturday night through Monday night
Saturday night surface based ridging and drier air will continue
to build eastward across our region. Lows Saturday night will
range from the single digits across the north country to the
teens south of lake ontario.

On Sunday any lingering flurries along the south shore of lake
ontario will come to an end during the morning... With otherwise dry
conditions prevailing until the approach of the next southern
stream system late in the day. This rather broad and weak system
will translate eastward across the lower ohio tennessee valleys
and virginias later Sunday and Sunday night... Before sliding off
the atlantic coastline on Monday. In the process... The northern
portions of this system may pass across our region while bringing
the chance of a little light snow and some attendant minor
accumulations... With the best potential for these lying across
the southern tier. Following its passage... High pressure and drier
air will then build back across our region Monday night... With a
cold but also very dry northerly flow only supporting a few more
flurries along and a bit inland from the south shore of lake
ontario... With dry and quiet weather prevailing elsewhere. As for
temperatures... These will remain below normal with daily highs
ranging through the 20s... And nightly lows ranging from the single
digits across the north country to the teens south of lake ontario.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
As we move into the longer term portion of the forecast... Zonal
flow aloft and sprawling surface high pressure will continue to
provide our region with dry and quiet weather Tuesday and Tuesday
night... While temperatures remain a bit below seasonal normals.

After that... The flow across the eastern CONUS will become a bit
more amplified through the rest of the period as deepening large-
scale troughing over the rockies and western plains states drives
the development of downstream upper level ridging over the eastern
third of the nation. Southern stream energy and another attendant
broad surface low ejecting northeastward in this flow regime should
push across the ohio valley and the northeastern states between
Wednesday and Thursday... With attendant warm air advection bringing
the chance for some snow and eventually some mixed precipitation
back into our region. At the same time... The warm advection regime
should also allow temperatures to climb back to a little above late
february normals.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
Rainfall will be ending east of lake ontario shortly as colder
air moves in. Lake effect snow showers will eventually develop
and affect buf and art for a period. This will occur as
stratocumulus becomes more common. Thus, MVFR conditions will
become common as gusty westerly flow continues into the evening.

Snow showers will move south of buf and art overnight as flow
continues to veer.VFR conditions will become more common as
drier air and high pressure enter the picture on Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday... Lingering areas of lake effect snow ifr southeast of
lake ontario... Otherwise mainlyVFR.

Sunday...VFR MVFR with a chance of snow showers south of lake ontario.

Monday... MVFR with a weak system moving across the region.

Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday... MVFR with a chance of snow.

Marine
Gale force gusty winds will continue thorugh the afternoon as a
cold front pushes east of lake ontario. These are in the wake of
a strong storm system that will track across northern quebec
tonight. Gales should subside early this evening and diminish
during the course of the overnight so that the current gale
warnings can expire (be replaced with high end small crafts for
the nearshore waters).

On Saturday... Winds will still be in the process of subsiding across
lake ontario so yet to be issued scas will likely run into the
afternoon.

Expansive high pressure reaching southeast across the lower great
lakes will support relatively light winds and minimal waves Saturday
night into Sunday. As we progress deeper into Sunday and Sunday
night... Northeast winds will freshen... Especially over lake ontario.

Tides coastal flooding
In the wake of a cold front... Southwesterly winds will increase
and become strong enough to push lake levels on eastern lake
erie to between 6 and 7 feet above low water datum today... For
which a lakeshore flood advisory remains in effect.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 7 am est
Saturday for nyz006>008.

Wind advisory until 7 pm est this evening for nyz001>003-007-
010-011-019-085.

Lakeshore flood advisory until 6 pm est this evening for
nyz010-019-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am est Saturday for lez020.

Gale warning until 7 pm est this evening for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Saturday for
loz030.

Gale warning until 7 pm est this evening for loz042-062.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
loz043>045.

Gale warning until 7 pm est this evening for loz043>045-
063>065.

Synopsis... Rsh
near term... Fries
short term... Jjr
long term... Jjr
aviation... Fries
marine... Fries rsh
tides coastal flooding... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 7 mi38 min WSW 26 G 36 38°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 7 mi44 min 38°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 59 mi38 min W 23 G 28 34°F 1001.4 hPa (+1.1)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY4 mi44 minW 22 G 329.00 miLight Snow and Breezy37°F24°F59%1002.1 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.