Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lewiston, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 6:01PM Saturday February 24, 2018 3:05 AM EST (08:05 UTC) Moonrise 12:18PMMoonset 2:23AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 1246 Pm Est Fri Feb 23 2018
This afternoon..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Rain likely.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of rain in the evening.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of rain showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain overnight.
Sunday..South winds to 30 knots becoming southwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Rain during the day.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Becoming mainly clear.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy.
LOZ030 Expires:201802232215;;436060 FZUS51 KBUF 231746 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1246 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ030-232215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lewiston, NY
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location: 43.19, -79.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 240610
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
110 am est Sat feb 24 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will move north of the area through tonight with milder
temperatures and rain into early tonight. Above normal temperatures
will then continue through the weekend, with another storm system
bringing another round of rain and windy conditions Saturday night
and Sunday.

Near term through today
A frontal boundary across the region early this morning will
continue to move through the area through daybreak. Moist air
ahead of this boundary is getting squeezed, resulting in areas
of fog and drizzle along the boundary. The most dense fog will
be located east of lake erie where upsloping and mixing with the
mainly frozen lake will increase low moisture. Conditions will
improve following the wind shift which will occur as the
boundary continues to move ese through daybreak. A dense fog
advisory is in effect east of lake erie.

Otherwise, cooler air moves in overnight as high pressure
briefly builds across the northern great lakes. Temperatures
will average in the mid 30s at daybreak.

Then high pressure slowly retreating off to our north will
provide dry conditions for a good portion of the day. The
frontal boundary which pushes through this evening will lay just
south of the area today and will remain there until deepening
low pressure across the midwest begins to lift it northward
after sunset. Northern edge of expected developing rain shield
could sneak into the western southern tier by late in the day.

Temperatures should rebound back into the 40s.

Short term tonight through Tuesday night
Organizing low pressure over the mid-mississippi valley at the start
of this period will rapidly deepen as it tracks to near or over lake
superior by Sunday morning... Then on to james bay by early Sunday
evening. As it does so... This low will first push a warm front
across the region later Saturday night and early Sunday... Followed
quickly by an occluding cold frontal boundary during Sunday.

This system will bring a period of widespread light to moderate rain
to our region during the Saturday night Sunday time frame... With the
main driving mechanism for this coming in the form of strong low
level warm air advection and low level convergence on the nose of a
50-60 knot low level jet. Compared to what has been previously
seen... The 12z iteration of the guidance suite has come in notably
slower overall with respect to the arrival of the precip Saturday
night... So have trended the forecast in that direction with this
afternoon's update. At this juncture it appears the bulk of the
precip will come between the second half of Saturday night and the
midday to early afternoon hours on Sunday... During which time most
areas appear to be in store for a rough half to three quarters of an
inch of rain. For the most part this should not be enough to cause
much concern for flooding... Though with more rain falling to our
south (and across the allegheny river basin) on Saturday... There is
still the risk that the allegheny river could approach flood stage.

While the bulk of our region will again be warm enough to support
just plain rain from this next event... The potential still exists
for a period of mixed precipitation or freezing rain across portions
of the north country late Saturday night and early Sunday morning...

where surface temperatures could remain below freezing initially in
spite of the overall warm air advection pattern. This could result
in some icing across portions of jefferson and lewis counties...

before surface temperatures warm enough to allow a changeover to
all rain by mid to late Sunday morning.

With some of the available guidance packages also suggesting the
potential development of a little weak elevated instability out
ahead of the cold front Sunday morning... It is also not out of the
question that there could be a few weak elevated thunderstorms just
out ahead of with the cold front as it crosses our region... With the
greatest potential for this lying from about the genesee valley
westward. While currently not confident enough in this to place a
mention in the forecast... We'll have to keep an eye on this
potential over the next day or so.

All the above said... The greatest concern with this system remains
the potential for a period of strong to potentially damaging winds
across portions of our area Saturday night and Sunday. At this
point... The region of the greatest risk remains from the chautauqua
county shoreline northeastward across the niagara frontier to
monroe county... Where a period of strong winds remains possible
following the passage of the cold front on Sunday. While the track
of the low is farther to the northwest than one would typically like
to see and the exact strength of the low level wind field still
remains a bit of a question mark... On the other hand strong dry
slotting in the wake of the front will allow skies to clear rather
nicely during peak heating on Sunday... And this coupled with large-
scale subsidence and modest cold advection will result in the
efficient downward transfer of higher momentum air from aloft to the
surface. With this in mind... It still appears quite possible that
this region will see wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph during the day
Sunday... For which a high wind watch therefore remains in effect.

Preceding the cold frontal passage... There will also be the risk of
a downslope wind event later Saturday night into Sunday across
portions of the area. One such region is the chautauqua ridge...

where the strength and orientation of the low level wind field is
less than ideal for such an event... But where at least some
marginally advisory-worthy gusts also cannot be totally ruled
out... And where the aforementioned high wind watch also begins a bit
earlier to cover this possibility. Of much greater concern for such
an event however are areas east of lake ontario... Where the low
level wind field is notably stronger (50-60 knots at 925 mb as
opposed to 40-45 knots over the chautauqua ridge)... And also better
aligned out of the southeast late Saturday night and Sunday morning.

History has shown that such winds are favorable for both strong
downslope winds to the lee of the tug hill... As well as strong
funnelling down the black river valley. With this in mind... We have
elected to hoist another high wind watch for jefferson and lewis
counties from 09z-18z Sunday to cover this potential. In between
these two main regions... Some stronger downslope winds are also
likely downwind of the higher terrain in the finger lakes region...

but there winds aloft remain substantially weaker and thus more
likely to support sub-advisory criteria gusts.

With respect to temperatures... This system will also bring our
region a brief but substantial warmup out ahead of the cold front
Saturday night and Sunday... With readings likely to peak in the
mid 40s to lower 50s across the eastern lake ontario region... And in
the mid 50s to lower 60s across the rest of the area. This window
of springlike warmth will be relatively short-lived though... With
modest cold air advection likely to send readings back on a downward
trend following the cold frontal passage.

After all that... Sunday night will then feature a return to much
quieter weather along with diminishing winds as high pressure over
the ohio valley ridges northeastward across our region. The newly
established quiet and dry weather will then continue through the
balance of this period... As the aforementioned surface ridge slowly
drifts eastward to the mid-atlantic coastline and then slightly
offshore through Tuesday night. At the same time... Our temperatures
will remain at well above normal levels for this time of year... With
daytime highs only settling back to the mid 40s to lower 50s on
Monday... Before climbing back up a category on Tuesday as somewhat
milder air works into the region on the backside of the eastward-
migrating surface ridge.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
Where's all the cold air??
there is high confidence for above normal temperatures through this
period... As a low amplitude split upper level flow over the country
will include a pronounced sub tropical jet that will extend across
the lower great lakes. This will help to establish a feed of very
mild air out of the gomex that will hold our temperatures some 15
deg above seasonal levels for Wednesday and Thursday. As we head
into the weekend... The mercury will gradually settle to near normal.

For those wondering about true cold air... An analysis of h85 temps
shows a pool of sub arctic air (<-20c) near and east of hudson
bay... But this airmass will retreat poleward during the coming days.

By the time this forecast period begins (wedn)... You will have to
travel north of 65n... And more specifically to the yukon... To find
any arctic air. Given the split flow over the lower 48... There will
no chance of tapping this marginally cold airmass. The coldest
airmass in the northern hemisphere though will remain parked on the
other side of the pole... In siberia.

While confidence is high for above normal temperatures during the
bulk of this forecast period... Timing differences between the main
ensemble packages will lead to a fair amount of uncertainty about
the potential for precipitation. As for the day to day details...

a bulging ridge over the eastern third of the country will allow h85
temps to climb above freezing while maintaining enough subsidence to
keep fair weather in place. The warmer air aloft will encourage max
temperatures to reach well into the 50s across the western
counties... With readings generally holding in the 40s across the
north country.

Timing differences between the models starts to come into play at
this point. A divergent upper level over the region Wednesday night
may be be accompanied by a northward advancing warm front. Greater
consistency would lead to much higher pops... But with the ecmwf
being so slow with a southern stream storm system... Will just
maintain our low chc pops for showers for Wednesday night.

A complex storm system based over the upper mid west on Thursday
will impact our region with more showers... But will have to be
conservative with pops as radically different scenarios are being
proposed by the main forecast packages. Will maintain 40 pops
regionwide.

As we push through Thursday night and Friday... The potential for
showers will increase while temperatures will decrease. While there
is relatively high confidence in this general scenario... Being more
specific with higher pops... P type and temperatures would be
fruitless. Stay tuned.

Aviation 06z Saturday through Wednesday
The main concern is widespread low CIGS and patchy dense fog
which is located just ahead of a boundary. As this boundary
drops sse across the area, moisture is getting trapped beneath a
lowering inversion and getting squeezed out resulting MVFR or
lower CIGS and areas of fog just ahead of this boundary.

Conditions will improve with the wind shift, with forecast
uncertainty stemming from uncertainty in the timing of this. In
general expect improving conditions from northwest to southeast
through 12z with mainly MVFR conditions this morning. These
will improve in some areas this afternoon with patchy MVFR cigs
lingering south of lake ontario.

Expect mainlyVFR conditions this evening, followed by active
weather with llws likely and a period of heavy rain late
tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday... Rain ending with improvement toVFR... Though also
turning rather windy.

Monday through Wednesday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
High pressure will briefly build back across the lower great
lakes today, before a strong area of low pressure tracks
northeastward across the great lakes on Sunday. This system will
bring at least a round of high end advisory-worthy conditions,
with gale force winds possible.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... High wind watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for
nyz007-008.

High wind watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
for nyz001>003-010>012-085.

Dense fog advisory until 6 am est early this morning for
nyz012-019>021-085.

High wind watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for
nyz019.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tma
near term... Apffel hsk tma
short term... Jjr
long term... Rsh
aviation... Apffel
marine... Hsk tma apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 13 mi65 min W 11 G 14 38°F 1021.7 hPa (+1.4)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 17 mi47 min 42°F 1022.6 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 30 mi47 min WSW 9.9 G 12 35°F 1021.4 hPa34°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 32 mi65 min WSW 15 G 18 40°F 1022.7 hPa
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 37 mi47 min 34°F 1022.2 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 48 mi65 min WSW 14 G 14 36°F 1022.8 hPa (+1.1)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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E7
G13
NE9
G14
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G15
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G23
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NE9
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NE7
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G11
NE6
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G12
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NE7
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G17
E8
G13
E6
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NE6
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SW6
G9
SE5
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SW1
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G6
N11
G15
N11
G14
N7
G10
NW4
SW6
SW6
N2
NW7
G10
N4
N3
NW5
NW4
N4
NW7
N8
N10
G13
N8

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY19 mi72 minWNW 1010.00 miOvercast44°F37°F76%1022.5 hPa

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9E10E9E6E5SE8SE5S6S7S9
G15
S9S12SW11SW15
G22
W11SW8SW8SW10SW9SW8SW8SW6W10W9
1 day agoNE8NE6NE8NE5NE6E6E8NE9E9E9NE9E10NE11E9NE10NE10E11E10E8NE10E10E12E9E11
2 days agoSW11SW10S9W14
G21
NW9N17N12N13NW10NW9W13W11NW9NW6W5CalmCalmN3N3N5N7N7N7N10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.