Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lewiston, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 7:30PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 5:09 PM EDT (21:09 UTC) Moonrise 6:09PMMoonset 6:28AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 420 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of rain showers late this evening. Rain showers likely after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Rain showers likely in the morning, then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..West winds 10 knots or less. A chance of rain and snow showers overnight.
Friday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of rain and snow showers Sunday night.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers during the day.
LOZ030 Expires:201903210330;;666659 FZUS51 KBUF 202020 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 420 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ030-210330-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lewiston, NY
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location: 43.19, -79.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 202024
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
424 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019

Synopsis
An area of low pressure will approach the region tonight, bringing
light rain to western zones, that will spread across eastern zones
through tomorrow morning. Another area of low pressure forming off
the carolina coastline tonight will advance northward along the
eastern seaboard, and then rapidly strengthen tomorrow night and
Friday. This system has the potential to produce heavy, wet snow to
areas east of lake ontario Friday through Friday night, with a mix
of rain and snow farther westward... That will become all snow Friday
night.

Near term through Thursday
Late this afternoon there is plenty of sunshine to go around
with surface high pressure departing along the eastern seaboard,
and upstream surface low remaining back across the upper lakes.

Visible satellite imagery displays the leading edge of cirrus
clouds spreading into western new york. Many locations have
warmed to around 50f.

For tonight, clouds will continue to slowly increase from west to
east as the surface low draws closer to wny. The upper level trough
and best lift will drop southeastward across the ohio valley tonight
and this will slow the eastward progression of mostly rain showers.

The greatest threat for rain showers will be across far western
zones late tonight where surface convergence is maximized along a
weak warm front. Areas to the east may remain dry through the night
as the surface low weakens under what is now a shortwave ridge of
high pressure aloft over new england and eastern nys.

Increasing clouds will likely prevent freezing temperatures across
wny, though the later arrival of clouds tonight east of lake ontario
will produce some spotty temperatures just below freezing.

Chances for mostly rain will then spread eastward across our eastern
zones tomorrow morning before the initial surface low weakens over
wny through the afternoon hours. Within the presence of this
weak surface low over our region, there will continue to be
chances for light rain showers through the day.

Precipitation tonight and tomorrow morning will predominately be
plain rain, though higher terrain may have a mix of wet snow and
rain. Even here snow accumulations will be little to none.

As the upper level trough sharpens over the southeast states
tonight, a secondary surface low will develop along the lee side of
the appalachian mountains tomorrow morning. This surface low will
begin to deepen and drift northward along the eastern seaboard to
about the DELMARVA peninsula. As this low deepens a LLJ will
increase, with a S to N oriented jet across the eastern mid-atlantic
states. Convergence along this jet axis will bring likely rain
showers to areas east of lake ontario by late in the afternoon
hours.

With no cold air drawn southward tomorrow afternoon temperatures
will again push into the mid 40s to around 50f.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
Latest operational and ensemble forecasts continuing to come
together on a late week complex pattern featuring two troughs which
will result in a deep closed circulation over new england.

First shortwave trough will cross the region Thursday night followed
by the main upper trough Friday. Dynamic support for precipitation
increases substantially over the area during this time.

Precipitation coverage which initially will be fairly spare
early Thursday night will increase overnight especially in
favored upslope areas. Thermal profiles will continue to be
warm enough for rain at lower elevations, with some wet snow
mixing in across higher terrain. Low temperatures will be in the
mid 30s in most locations and lower 30s for higher terrain.

Friday and Friday night, the deepening and coastal low will
allow for deep northwest cyclonic flow to develop across the
eastern great lakes. Abundant wrap around moisture, developing
lake instability, and upslope flow will all contribute to
widespread precipitation later Friday and Friday night.

Precipitation type will still be a mix of rain and wet snow
through midday Friday before changing to all snow by late Friday
afternoon or early evening as strong cold advection develops in
the wake of the coastal low. Widespread wrap around snow will
then likely continue through Friday night. It will turn quite
windy as well, with gusts over 35 mph possible as cold air
pours back into the region.

Most guidance suggesting a good potential for significant snowfall
over the higher terrain east of lake ontario. A winter storm watch
will be issued to cover the potential of 7 or more inches from
Friday into early Saturday. Most guidance suggests at least some
accumulation across other parts of the entire region. The
higher terrain of the southern tier and southern finger lakes
will have the better chances to see accumulating snowfall of
several inches.

The northwest flow lake effect and upslope snow will continue
through Saturday morning before tapering off from west to east
Saturday afternoon as the strong coastal low begins to move into the
canadian maritimes and away from the region. Additional light snow
accumulations are possible Saturday morning. Temperatures will be
well below normal, with highs in the 30s.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
High pressure will track across the lower ohio valley, appalachians
and off the southern mid-atlantic coast Sunday. This dry airmass
will promote dry and warm conditions Sunday with temperatures
climbing into the 50's away from the lakeshores.

To the north, a cold front will be stretched from west to east from
lake superior to montreal Sunday evening. As high pressure continues
to retreat off the east coast, this frontal boundary will begin to
move southward Sunday night. There continues to be question as to
the track and speed of an area of low pressure that will be
developing across the central plains. The GFS continues bringing it
further north where widespread rain or snow showers will spread
across western and north central ny late Sunday night through Monday
while the ECMWF keeps low pressure further south with little
interaction with the cold front as it moves across the eastern great
lakes Monday. There is a large spread with the amount of liquid
precipitation right now so kept chance rain or snow showers Sunday
night through Monday.

One thing that does look certain is the amount of cold air that will
move into the eastern great lakes beginning Monday night. Cold air
advection will continue through Tuesday night with 850mb
temperatures falling to a low of around -15c. Although dry, expect
winter-like temperatures for the first half of next week.

Aviation 21z Wednesday through Monday
Vfr flight conditions will last through 06z. Light rain will
enter far wny around midnight. An upper level low that is
forcing this rain will dive to the south of our region, leaving
little forcing and eastward push to these showers. Greatest
threat for rain showers will be across far western ny late
tonight where surface convergence is maximized along a weak warm
front. This will result in cloudy skies, with clouds still
mainly in theVFR flight category late tonight and into
Thursday.

With forcing dropping southward tomorrow rain shower activity
through the first half of Thursday will be spotty, withVFR flight
conditions likely. As moisture increases from the south Thursday
afternoon flight conditions will lower to MVFR higher terrain ifr
and rain showers will increase some, especially towards the east
ahead of a LLJ along the eastern seaboard.

Outlook...

Thursday night... MVFR ifr in rain showers changing to snow late.

Friday... MVFR ifr with rain continuing to changing to snow.

Saturday...VFR MVFR with a chance of snow showers.

Sunday...VFR.

Sunday night and Monday...VFR MVFR in snow showers and perhaps rain
showers.

Marine
An area of low pressure will approach the lakes tonight, though the
pressure gradient will remain modest with winds generally 15 knots
or less through tomorrow night.

A secondary low will form tomorrow night along the carolina
coastline and then rapidly strengthen Thursday night and Friday
along the new england coastline. The increase pressure gradient with
this system will bring gusty west to then northwest winds across the
lakes Friday and Friday night, with waves pushing over 4 feet on
open waters. A period of small craft conditions is then likely to
continue through Saturday on the waters.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter storm watch from Friday morning through Saturday
morning for nyz006>008.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Apffel thomas
short term... Hitchcock tma
long term... Hsk
aviation... Apffel thomas
marine... Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 17 mi40 min 45°F 1020 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 30 mi40 min SSW 5.1 G 6 43°F 34°F1020.3 hPa11°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 32 mi70 min WSW 8.9 G 17 50°F 1021.3 hPa (-2.4)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 37 mi40 min 45°F 1019.8 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 48 mi70 min N 1.9 G 2.9 41°F 1020.7 hPa (-2.5)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY19 mi77 minSW 1010.00 miFair49°F26°F41%1021.1 hPa

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW14SW12SW10S7S6SW7SW3S4S3S3S3S4S5S7S7SW7SW9SW12
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1 day agoNW12NW11W4SW4W5SW3SW3S4S4S7NW4CalmSE3S3S3SW4SW4SW5SW6SW10SW10SW13SW15SW15
G19
2 days agoSW13SW11SW9SW8SW7SW7SW7SW5S3S5SW4SW6SW7SW7SW7SW7SW10SW9SW10SW9N6CalmSW13W8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.