Monday, December11, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dover, NH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:09PM Monday December 11, 2017 12:44 AM EST (05:44 UTC) Moonrise 1:18AMMoonset 1:55PM Illumination 47% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 813 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est Monday...
Rest of tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Scattered flurries early this evening.
Mon..W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow and rain after midnight.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Snow likely in the morning. Rain.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..W winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..W winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of snow.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ100 813 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2017
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Low pressure will gradually move well east of the waters tonight and Monday. Another low will affect the waters on Tuesday. Westerly gales are likely in the wake of this system Wednesday into Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dover, NH
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location: 43.2, -70.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 110434
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
1134 pm est Sun dec 10 2017

Synopsis
Snow showers are expected to linger across the higher terrain
through Monday morning. An arctic cold front will drop south
across the area early Monday. This boundary could trigger a few
snow squalls across the mountains and foothills with its
passage. The next low pressure system will affect maine and new
hampshire Tuesday and Wednesday with another round of wintry
precipitation. Colder weather follows this system for the end of
the work week.

Near term tonight
1130pm update...

some clearer skies in the eastern part of the area have allowed
temperatures to drop there a bit more than forecast. Have
adjusted overnight temperatures to reflect this. Otherwise
forecast largely on track. Cold front dropping in from the north
will link up with some lake moisture and produce some light snow
in northern new hampshire overnight.

8pm update...

have made minor adjustments to hourly temperature and dewpoint
forecast based on latest observations. Dewpoints this evening
running a little higher than forecast so bumped these up a bit.

No other significant changes were made here.

4pm update...

have updated the forecast to account for current snow shower
activity and structure precipitation chances such that they are
more graduated. Lake effect band is sending moisture into nh and
even western me. Accumulation should be limited to
western northern nh where an inch is possible overnight.

Original discussion...

at 19z... A 984 millibar low was vicinity of newfoundland. An
arctic boundary extended from the gaspe peninsula through the
upper great lakes. As expected... The westerly trajectory to the
lee of lake ontario and upslope flow has produced a good deal of
cloudiness across the higher terrain... Along with an area of
snow showers producing some light accumulations. Downwind of the
higher terrain we were seeing varying amounts of low clouds.

For tonight... A shortwave impulse will approach from the great
lakes late tonight. At the surface a weak wave will ripple
eastward along the arctic boundary and help drive it southward
into the mountains after midnight. This should produce more
organized snow showers for a time... Along with the possibility
of a brief snow squall with its passage. Elsewhere... Skies will
average partly cloudy overnight with the chance of a brief snow
shower or flurry. Lows will range from the teens across the
mountains to the 20s elsewhere.

Short term Monday and Monday night
The shortwave and arctic boundary exit the area by midday with
any lingering snow showers or flurries coming to an end. Highs
will be reached by midday with falling afternoon readings as the
arctic air deepens across the area. We'll see a brief break
late tomorrow into Monday night under weak ridging.

However... Clouds will rapidly thicken and lower after midnight
in warm air advection ahead of the next disturbance. Expect
we'll see precipitation breakout over much of new hampshire and
southwest maine during the predawn hours of Tuesday. The column
will be cold enough to support all snow at the onset.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Main concerns for Tuesday through Sunday...

*significant winter storm will bring additional snowfall to much
of the area on Tuesday with possible mixing along the coast.

This will impact rush hours on Tuesday.

*an arctic air mass filters in for mid week creating very cold
wind chills.

Blocking downstream over the atlantic will keep deep troughing
over the northeastern CONUS with the northern jet stream main
storm track overhead for the foreseeable future. It will become
colder locally with time with 700mb temperatures in the teens
by mid week. At its nadir (Thursday), the cold will translate
to tens and teens for the mountains and 20s and 30s south for
highs. Overnight lows will drop as the single digits north to
lower teens south.

A winter weather watch has been issued for Tuesday for all areas
except the coast and waldo county. Many GEFS naefs ecmwf
ensemble members are in agreement that at least advisory level
snows will be seen all the way to the canadian border, with
warning level criteria for much of southern and central nh and
southwest maine. Naefs percentiles, standardized anomalies, and
return intervals all indicate that this is an anomalously strong
system in relation to geopotential height falls and u and v
winds.

The latest deterministic model runs generally develop a secondary
low just along the nh me coast before curling it nne into
northern aroostook (aka "the county"). This path will draw in a
fair amount of warm air ahead of the cyclone and bring the
coastal front farther inland; thus the exclusion of the coast
in the watch. However, strong cold air damming will exist north
of the front especially in the foothills and we could see some
mixed precipitation along the interface. In general expect
p-type to be mainly snow once the system really wraps up with a
few hours of moderate to heavy snow. This system should move
out quickly very late Tuesday with some additional accumulating
snows in the slopes for Wednesday.

Gusty NW winds will arrive in its wake ushering in arctic air.

Bitter windchill values are forecast north of the foothills
bottoming near -25 f Thursday morning, and a wind chill advisory
or warning may be needed.

Another system may affect the region Friday Saturday but
currently it is dipping south of northern new england. In
general, with cyclonic flow in place clouds and showers will
remain in the extended forecast.

Aviation 01z Monday through Friday
Short term... Areas of MVFR possible in snow showers north of the
mountains with local ifr conditions through Monday morning.

ElsewhereVFR is expected. MVFR will develop after 06z Tue and
lower to ifr by the end of the period in snow.

Long term... A storm will impact the region on Tuesday. Expect
ifr in snow starting early Tuesday morning and continuing
through the day. Snow comes to an end late Tuesday night and
conditions will return toVFR by Wednesday expect in the upslope
mountain areas where MVFR shsn will persist through Thursday.

Marine
Short term... We'll see one more surge of wind tonight into
Monday with SCA conditions likely. We should briefly drop below
sca Monday night under weak ridging ahead of the next storm
system.

Long term... A low will develop and cross the gulf of maine on
Tuesday bringing precipitation. In its wake northwesterly flow
will develop and strengthen to gale force by Wednesday night
under cold advection. Gales will subside by Thursday morning but
small craft advisories will persist through the end of the week.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... Winter storm watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday
night for mez007>009-012>014-018>022.

Nh... Winter storm watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday
night for nhz001>013-015.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Monday for anz150>154.

Near term update... Kimble
short term... Schwibs
long term... Hanes


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 10 mi60 min SSW 2.9 30°F 1014 hPa23°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 18 mi45 min SW 6 G 8 31°F 42°F1013.2 hPa (+0.4)
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 19 mi45 min SW 2.9 30°F 24°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 21 mi45 min SW 22 G 24 36°F 1012.9 hPa (+0.3)25°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 23 mi101 min SW 18 G 19 37°F 46°F1012.7 hPa
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 45 mi55 min WSW 19 G 23 36°F 45°F5 ft1012.8 hPa (+1.3)24°F
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 46 mi45 min 33°F 44°F1012.7 hPa (+0.6)
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 46 mi39 min 48°F5 ft
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 49 mi101 min WSW 18 G 21 38°F 47°F1014 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester - Skyhaven Airport, NH6 mi54 minS 310.00 miOvercast27°F21°F81%1012.5 hPa
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH8 mi49 minSSW 610.00 miOvercast30°F21°F70%1013.2 hPa
Sanford, Sanford Regional Airport, ME16 mi49 minSSW 310.00 miOvercast27°F21°F81%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from DAW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW5Calm3Calm3433W4W4W84
G14
434CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmS3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N3CalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmNE3N4N4N6N7N8N8N7N8N8N8
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalm3Calm35W745CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Dover, Cocheco River, Piscataqua River, New Hampshire
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Dover
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:17 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:42 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:12 AM EST     7.28 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:55 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:16 PM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:08 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:35 PM EST     7.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.200.72.13.95.66.77.375.94.22.41.10.50.71.73.24.96.2776.34.83

Tide / Current Tables for Portsmouth Harbor Entrance, New Hampshire Current
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Portsmouth Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:17 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:05 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:04 AM EST     1.16 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:06 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:48 AM EST     -1.68 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:54 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:37 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:25 PM EST     0.93 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:07 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:19 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:08 PM EST     -1.82 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.1-0.10.81.21.110.80.1-0.9-1.6-1.7-1.6-1.3-0.60.30.90.90.80.70.3-0.7-1.5-1.8-1.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.