Tuesday, August22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bridgeport, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 7:56PM Tuesday August 22, 2017 11:01 AM EDT (15:01 UTC) Moonrise 6:07AMMoonset 7:38PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 416 Am Edt Tue Aug 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late Wednesday night...
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Scattered showers this morning...then showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Some Thunderstorms may be severe with strong winds this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west 15 to 25 knots. Showers likely in the evening. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. A chance of waterspouts during the day. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ044 Expires:201708221515;;763930 FZUS51 KBUF 220816 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 416 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-045-221515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bridgeport, NY
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location: 43.2, -76.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 221458
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1058 am edt Tue aug 22 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will push through the area this afternoon and
evening triggering strong thunderstorms. A significant severe
weather event is likely with this activity with the primary
threat damaging winds. Pleasant weather will return on Wednesday
with clearing skies and lower humidities.

Near term through Wednesday
1030 am update...

strongly forced system upstream of ny pa will continue to
advance upon destabilizing atmosphere here this afternoon, and
forecast for an episode of strong-severe thunderstorms is still
on the mark. The environmental lid is slowly eroding with mlcape
still expected to climb to around 1500-2000 j kg prior to
convective development. Analyzed effective shear still looking
good upstream and will move over the region later today in
tandem with heating. Convective mode looks to be mixed and
transitional today with possibility for multi-cells and discrete
supercells toward mid-late afternoon, followed by linear
features moving through early this evening. Only real changes to
forecast were to adjust timing pops according to most recent
mesoscale model forecasts, which improved the late morning and
early afternoon hours to mainly rain free and sunny conditions,
with best chances for +tsra moving in late day early evening.

Pwat values are significantly anomalous, which brings a localized
flood threat into concern... However, the event should be rather
progressive in this flow with no glaring hints for training
storms. We've had several days-weeks now where much of the area
has dried out, so antecedent conditions aren't as much of an
issue as earlier this summer. Urban areas most likely will have
the biggest issues with street flooding, as even a normal speed
storm cell will still be capable of producing an inch of rain
in less than an hour today.

With convective outlook as enhanced today, we do expect to see
some sort of watch event coming out of SPC for our area this
afternoon. Threat primarily wind gust damage, but brief tornadic
activity not out of the question. Rest of discussion stands for
late tonight and tomorrow.

Previous discussion...

conditions this afternoon and evening look favorable for a
significant severe weather event across the area. A deepening
low pressure system over lake superior will track northeast
into southern quebec with its trailing cold front crossing the
area during the mid afternoon through early evening period. The
environment over the region will be favorable for the
development of severe thunderstorms. Deep layer shear values
range from 40-50 knots, 700mb flow is around 50 knots, low,
level helicity is very significant and event is strongly forced
by surface cold front pre frontal trough. The surface based cape
on the NAM ranges from 1500-2500 j kg although the GFS is
lower. The only lacking ingredient is steep mid level lapse
rates but this will likely be overcome by the strong forcing.

Due to strong mid level flow the primary threat will be damaging
winds although if the nam CAPE is realized large hail is also
possible. The significant low level helicity is also an
indication of tornado threat. Atmosphere ahead of this boundary
will be very juicy with pwats close to 2 inches, so any
thunderstorms will contain heavy downpours. The severe weather
threat will end across the region during the mid evening hours.

High temperatures will range in the lower to middle 80s and with
dewpoints near 70 it will feel rather muggy.

Wednesday will be much cooler and dry with lower humidities
under brisk northwest flow. Highs will range in the lower to
middle 70s.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
430 am update...

sharp upper trough will pivot from upper midwest through great
lakes and northeast, with mainly dry weather and cool
temperatures.

Cooling air aloft combined with diurnal heating could produce a
few widely scattered showers Thursday, but moisture will be
quite limited. Generally speaking, northwest flow will exist in
the low levels with persistent cold air advection and a taste of
fall. Lower to mid 50s are expected for lows Wednesday night.

Then after highs of upper 60s-mid 70s Thursday, lows of upper
40s-lower 50s are figured by dawn Friday.

Long term Friday through Monday
320 pm edt update...

updated with new wpc guidance...

minor changes were made from previous forecast...

anti-cyclonic flow over the northeast combined with amplified
ridging over the western CONUS will result in quiet weather for
the extended forecast. High pressure is expected to prevail over
the region Friday and possibly linger through the weekend which
will result in below seasonal temperatures. This pattern may
prevail through the start of early next week.

Aviation 15z Tuesday through Saturday
Dense fog will lift at kelm around 13z. OtherwiseVFR conditions
will persist until the afternoon. A strong cold front will
cross the region during the mid afternoon and early evening
hours. Strong thunderstorms are likely along this boundary with
severe thunderstorms a possibility. Included a four hour tempo
group indicating this convection at all TAF sites which will
generally occur between 19z-24z. Following this boundary
widespread MVFR conditions will persist until late tonight when
drier air works into the terminals.

Winds becoming southwest this morning and increasing to 10-15
knots with gusts 15-25 knots. Overnight winds becoming westerly
around 10 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday... MainlyVFR.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Jab rrm
near term... Jab rrm
short term... Mdp
long term... Kah
aviation... Rrm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 32 mi43 min S 13 G 23 82°F 1009.4 hPa69°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 84 mi61 min SSW 14 G 18 82°F 1009.8 hPa (-2.1)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 85 mi43 min 83°F 1008.8 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY8 mi67 minS 14 G 2010.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F70°F63%1010.1 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY23 mi67 minS 13 G 1610.00 miFair82°F71°F69%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SW7W9SW8SW7SW6SW9SW9SW6W3CalmCalmCalmSE3E4SE4E4E5E4E4SE4S10S8S14
G20
1 day agoW8W5W85W9
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NW10NW6NW4N4CalmE3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmE3E3E4E3E4E4SE4
2 days agoW12W12W18
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W15W12
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W9SW8W10W13NW13W8W6W8W7W9W8W8W8W9W8W6W9W10W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.