Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Constantia, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 5:49PM Saturday February 24, 2018 1:01 PM EST (18:01 UTC) Moonrise 12:05PMMoonset 2:10AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 342 Am Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Today..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast less than 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast and increasing to 15 to 25 knots overnight. Rain with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 foot or less building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Rain with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. A chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 37 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201802241615;;467612 FZUS51 KBUF 240842 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 342 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-241615-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constantia, NY
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location: 43.21, -76.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 241739
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1239 pm est Sat feb 24 2018

Synopsis
An upper level disturbance will bring rain to northeast
pennsylvania this afternoon. Tonight and Sunday low pressure
moving from the mid west to eastern canada will bring a period
of rain to the entire region later tonight through Sunday
morning. A dry and mild period of weather is expected early
next week.

Near term through Sunday
10 am update... The current forecast is in fairly good shape. We
just modified temperature, pop, and weather grids slightly to
account for the latest trends.

Regional radar loops late this morning showed another area of
rain quickly moving into nepa and the far southern tier of cny.

With a long stream of moisture evident in the broad SW flow
aloft, along with embedded short waves, we expect periods of
rain to continue across these areas this afternoon. Fortunately,
earlier batches of moderate-heavy rain upstream across western
pa have weakened, so we expect generally light amounts.

An influx of slightly drier air in the boundary layer has made
it into our northern zones this morning, and thus we expect
mainly dry conditions across the northern finger lakes, mohawk
valley, and southern tug hill regions this afternoon.

With temperatures safely above freezing area-wide, only plan
rain is anticipated. By later this afternoon, we expect highs to
range from the upper 30s across far northern parts of the
forecast area, to the low-mid 40s across ny's southern tier and
nepa.

Previous discussion... Issued a winter weather advisory for
freezing rain in northern oneida county late tonight into Sunday
morning.

A leading mid level short wave will move through northern
pennsylvania this afternoon and spread light rain across much of
northeast pennsylvania. Measurable precipitation will most
likely remain just south of the border through the daylight
hours. For the rest of central new york, low level moisture
trapped under a subsidence inversion will make for mostly
cloudy skies. Highs will range in the lower to middle 40s.

Tonight through Sunday... Low pressure in the mid west will lift
northeast to lake superior by Sunday morning then to james bay
by evening. A significant mid level short wave combined with a
warm frontal boundary moving through the region will spread rain
across northeast pennsylvania southern tier during the evening
hours and the rest of central new york after midnight. Models
continue to indicate the potential for freezing rain from
northern oneida county south through the western catskills. The
nam model soundings show more low level cold air than the gfs.

Issued a winter weather advisory for northern oneida county
where confidence is highest for icing. Included mention of
patchy freezing rain from the mohawk valley to western catskills
in the hwo. By mid morning Sunday surface temperatures will be
well above freezing ending the threat for freezing rain. The
rain will pull east of the area rather quickly during the late
morning and early afternoon hours as the trailing surface
occlusion moves through. In the warm sector high temperatures
will range from the mid 50s in the finger lakes region to mid
40s in the western catskills. Total rainfall will generally
fall between .75"-1" with locally higher amounts in upslope
areas under southeast flow. At this time the potential for
significant flooding looks unlikely but will continue to monitor
closely and mention in hwo.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday night
215 am update...

this period dominated by high pressure and dry air that moves
in Sunday night and continues into Tuesday night. The high moves
from the lower ohio valley east and expanding as it reaches the
mid atlantic coast Tuesday. Again very mild with above normal
temperatures due to a broad ridge off the east coast. Highs from
the mid 40s to the lower 50s both days. Lows mostly in the 30s
but coldest Tuesday morning with lows mid 20 to around 30.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
215 am update...

unsettled period but much uncertainty. Starts out mild with the
return flow from the high pressure pumping warm air northeast.

An initial slight chance of showers Wednesday afternoon as a
surface low and short wave move across southeast canada. A
weak trailing front drops through the region with a very little
moisture and lift. Most likely will remain dry Wednesday and
maybe Wednesday night. Better precipitation chances for
Thursday and Friday. Models starting to come together on a
scenario. Low pressure moves out of the southern plains at the
base of a large upper level trough. This will bring ample
moisture northeast ahead of it into the area Thursday. The
surface low and trough move through Thursday night then slow
Friday into Saturday off the coast as a nor'easter on the euro
and gfs. The canadian keeps the system moving so dry Saturday.

Precipitation will be mostly rain to start probably changing to
snow Thursday night and Friday (into Saturday) as cold air drops
south into the area.

Highs in the 50s Wednesday drop to around 50 Thursday then into
the lower 40s Friday. Lows in the 30s.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
18z update... Rain continues to impact kavp this afternoon, with
mostly alternate required-MVFR restrictions, occasionally lower
in periods of heavier rainfall.

Elsewhere, conditions should vary between MVFR andVFR.

This evening, lingering low clouds at kavp should continue to
produce restrictions as low as alternate required, with mostly
vfr anticipated elsewhere.

Late tonight and Sunday morning, as steadier rain overspreads
all of cny and nepa, conditions should lower area-wide, with
below alternate-ifr restrictions expected much of the time.

Conditions may be slightly higher at kavp and ksyr, with
downsloping at play for both sites.

There is an outside chance of -fzra at krme at the onset of
precipitation, although we think the most probable scenario is
just plain rain.

As a strong low-level jet develops by early Sunday, we've
inserted llws for all terminal sites.

As for the surface winds, 5 kt or less can be expected into this
evening. Later tonight and Sunday, winds will increase
significantly from the se, with gusts as high as 20-30 kt
likely, particularly at ksyr, kith, and kbgm.

Outlook...

Monday-Wednesday... GenerallyVFR.

Thursday... Restrictions may develop in snow, or mixed
precipitation.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 10 am est Sunday for
nyz009.

Synopsis... Rrm
near term... Mlj rrm
short term... Tac
long term... Tac
aviation... Mlj rrm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 30 mi43 min W 2.9 G 6 1023.3 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 82 mi61 min NW 5.1 G 7 36°F 1025.4 hPa
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 83 mi43 min 36°F 1024.5 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Last
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SE13
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G29
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NE7
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G7
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G13
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G16
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W16
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W15
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G7
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G11
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY7 mi67 minNNW 510.00 miOvercast40°F30°F70%1023.7 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY20 mi67 minNW 610.00 miOvercast41°F28°F62%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE14SE7SE11S8S17
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S10S13S12W9W8W9NW12W9W6W5W12NW9W7NW6W9NW8N5
1 day agoN4CalmCalmNE3E3NE3CalmSE3SE3E3CalmE3E4NE6E8E10E10E10E11E8E11E8SE11SE8
2 days agoW16
G22
W8W11W12W14W11W8W6W6W7W9W7W6W6W5W4SW3W3NW3CalmCalmCalmSE3N3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.