Saturday, July22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Constantia, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:37PM Saturday July 22, 2017 10:45 PM EDT (02:45 UTC) Moonrise 3:52AMMoonset 6:58PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 403 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. A chance of light rain early. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet...then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning...then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening...then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 73 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201707230315;;663477 FZUS51 KBUF 222003 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 403 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-230315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constantia, NY
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location: 43.21, -76.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 230131
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
931 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017

Synopsis
Isolated light rain showers will persist under overcast skies
through Sunday morning. A better chances of showers and storms
arrives late Sunday afternoon, and continues into Monday
morning. Rain ends slowly Monday west to east. Dry Tuesday and
Wednesday before the next chance of rain Thursday.

Near term through Sunday night
930 pm update...

mid level wave which tracked along the stationary boundary
across central pennsylvania has moved east into new jersey.

Moderate rain in the far southeast forecast area has ended with
just isolated to scattered light showers remaining. With only
weak forcing for the rest of the overnight period just isolated
to scattered activity is expected and this will be primarily in
northeast pennsylvania which is closest to this surface
boundary. The threat for locally heavy rainfall overnight is
over.

330 pm update...

main concerns in the near term remain focused around the potential
for light rain over mainly central ny, and showers and storms over
ne pa tonight... With the possibility of locally heavy rain the main
threat... And then the next round of showers and storms starting up
Sunday afternoon, lasting through the night with the threat of
strong winds and heavy rain within the storms.

Weak east-west oriented stationary front across pa, and a surface
low tracking along the boundary will combine with modest instability
and deep layer moisture, and weak dynamics aloft to produce rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms over NE pa this afternoon and
evening. The bulk of the significant instability should remain well
to the south, but there could be enough deep moisture... Pwats 1.75
to 2"... And sufficient deep shear... 30-40kt... To allow for well-
developed storms and efficient heavy rainers. Will need to watch
this area closely through the next 8 hrs for flooding potential.

A secondary front to the north and weak mid-level f-gen is
triggering very light rainfall from lake ontario into the srn
adirondacks. This band of rain to the north will likely continue for
the next several hours, and dissipate through the evening as the
forcing and moisture shift to the east.

Conditions will be relatively quiet Sunday morning with mainly
overcast skies and a few lingering light rain showers. The next
round of convection is expected in the afternoon as a deepening
upper trough digs through the great lakes and acts to draw nwd
through the mid-atlantic region another batch of deep moisture along
with a bit more sufficient instability. This available moisture and
instability will work in conjunction with the strong upper forcing
from the S W and dynamics aloft to produce widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms through the evening and likely into the
overnight hours. The most favorable time for thunderstorms with
heavy rain and strong winds will likely be from the evening into the
overnight hours aligned with the approaching sfc low and or
trough warm front. Rainfall rates may approach 1" per hour and
localized flooding issues may be of concern, especially in the
sensitive areas.

Lows tonight will fall into the 60s. Highs on Sunday will climb in
the upper 70s and lower 80s... With temps dropping back into the 60s
Sunday night.

Short term Monday through Monday night
250 pm edt update...

Monday could be an interesting day as a well defined shortwave
will propagate across the great lakes region early Mon morning
and impact the CWA late Mon afternoon evening. It's attendant
sfc low will move into western ny around 12z Monday and
depending on it's track, will depend on if we may see strong to
severe storms, or if we may see ordinary showers and
thunderstorms across the region. If the sfc low moves more on a
ne track, this will allow more breaks in the cloud coverage,
thus we will have more of a chance to develop instability across
the region (gfs ECMWF solution). If the sfc low takes a more
e SE track (nam solution) we will likely have overcast skies and
showers and an occasional rumble of thunder. There is a lot of
uncertainty with Monday and will just have to wait and see how
guidance grasp the situation. If we take more of a strong to
severe route, strong winds and hail would be the main threat.

Monday morning will likely start off with showers and thunderstorms
across the area, then a lull before a second round develops
during the afternoon. Showers will likely dissipate after
midnight. Temps Monday will be below the seasonal average as
rain showers are expected to dominate most of the day. Temps
will fall into the uppr 50s low 60s overnight.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
250 pm edt update...

updated with new wpc guidance...

overall the weather pattern continues with a prominent ridge
dominating most of the CONUS tues through thurs morning. The
next shortwave to break down the eastern edge of the ridge will
swing across the great lakes region on Thursday. Guidance is in
fairly good agreeance that this wave will force a cold front
across the region bringing another round of showers and
thunderstorms across the ny pa. ATTM showers look to be
widespread in nature. Best time frame to see showers ATTM is
tues am through tues pm. High pressure may build back into the
northeast just in time for the weekend.

Temps will rise into the uppr 70s low 80s during the afternoon and
fall into the uppr 50s low 60s during the nights.

Aviation 02z Sunday through Thursday
MainlyVFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours.

However, early Sunday morning, low clouds moving east out of the
ohio valley will reach kelm, kavp, and possibly kbgm. This area
of clouds will generate MVFR ceilings through 15z-16z.

Of greater concern is the potential for fog formation at kelm
before the MVFR ceilings arrive. A brief period of 3 4sm fog is
forecast, generally between 9z and 12z.

Scattered thunderstorms will move into our forecast area Sunday
afternoon. At this point, the coverage is expected to be too
widely scattered to project a terminal to be be directly
affected. We will continue to monitor the situation.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday night... Periodic restrictions in
showers- thunderstorms, especially late Sunday into Monday.

Tuesday through Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday... Additional chances for showers and storms with
associated restrictions.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Bjt
near term... Bjt rrm
short term... Kah
long term... Kah
aviation... Djp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 30 mi46 min E 1.9 G 2.9 70°F 1009.5 hPa (+0.6)65°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 82 mi46 min ESE 6 G 7 73°F 1010.5 hPa (+1.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 83 mi46 min 73°F 1009.5 hPa (+0.8)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY7 mi52 minN 010.00 miOvercast69°F64°F87%1009.1 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY20 mi52 minN 07.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F64°F93%1009.6 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5W6SW6W7SW7CalmCalmCalmW4SW3SW5SW5W5W5W5W3SW4NW3NE6NE5NE4NE4CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmW3W6W5NW3CalmCalmW6W8W6W7W9W7W12
G15
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2 days agoN3CalmCalmSW3CalmSW7SW7W3SW6W5W6W8W6W9W11NW10N8E53SW3CalmNE4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.