Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Constantia, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:23PM Monday March 25, 2019 6:58 PM EDT (22:58 UTC) Moonrise 11:53PMMoonset 8:57AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201903251515;;892120 Fzus51 Kbuf 251059 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 659 Am Edt Mon Mar 25 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-251515- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 659 Am Edt Mon Mar 25 2019
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Scattered rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 knots or less. A chance of rain showers. Waves subsiding to 1 foot or less. The water temperature off rochester is 36 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constantia, NY
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location: 43.21, -76.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 252016
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
416 pm edt Mon mar 25 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build over the region through Wednesday,
bring dry weather. While temperatures are forecast to be colder
than normal initially a warming trend is expected to begin
midweek. The next chance for rain showers arrives by late week.

Near term through Tuesday
300 pm update
wave of low pressure passing by to our south late this afternoon
and early this evening will bring a slight chance for sprinkles
or flurries along and south of i-80 in NE pa (i.E. Near hazleton).

Otherwise, skies will range from overcast south of monticello-
honesdale and tunkhannock... To partly cloudy over the twin tiers
and clear further north in central ny.

Later this evening the aforementioned wave of low pressure moves
off shore, with skies quickly clearing from NW to SE by about 10
pm. High pressure begins to build into the area from the great
lakes overnight and through the day Tuesday. This will bring dry
weather and clear sunny skies. A fairly persistent north south
gradient will allow northerly winds to increase between 8-15 mph
late Tuesday morning and into the afternoon hours. It will be
dry on Tuesday with dewpoints in the single digits and teens
once again... This will lead to minimum rh values between 20-30
percent in NE pa, and 25-35 percent in central ny. 10 hour fuel
moistures are just beginning to dry out now, but substantial
snow cover also remains over the higher elevations in catskills
and poconos. So it seems it is just a bit too early in the
season to highlight any fire weather concerns at this time.

Seasonably cold temperatures persists, with overnight lows in
the teens to lower 20s. Temperatures only recover into the 30s
Tuesday afternoon, except some lower 40s for the valleys of ne
pa and the ny southern tier.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
No major changes to the short term period, see previous
discussion below.

350 am update... Very quiet weather in the short term with a
large area of surface high pressure passing across the region,
followed by moderating temperatures as its return flow begins.

Upper level cyclonic flow will be replaced by weak ridging aloft
into midweek, and when combined with much drier air and the
presence of the strong surface high, the chances for
precipitation will remain near zero.

Despite warm air advection just getting started aloft Tuesday
night, ideal radiational surface cooling conditions and very
dry air will cause temperatures to plummet into the teens for
most locations. However, abundant sunshine and continued dry air
will lead to a wide diurnal range as highs reach upper 40s to
lower 50 Wednesday. This will also produce relative humidity
values into the 20s percent range in the afternoon, and in some
spots even a touch below that.

The surface high will shift off the new england coast Wednesday
night as the next system prepares to move in across the upper
midwest and the great lakes. High thin clouds may begin to
advect into the region late Wednesday night as well, which along
with an uptick in southwesterly winds from strengthening
pressure gradient, will prevent temperatures from falling below
the mid 20s-lower 30s for lows.

Long term Thursday through Monday
Thursday through Thursday night: operational models continue to
indicate a faster approach of a cold front on Thursday, which
will bring a chance of rain showers from west to east, mainly
during the afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. Highs
on Thursday will be mild, generally in the mid to upper 50s.

Lows Thursday night will generally be in the upper 30s to near
40.

Friday through Sunday: this will likely be a rather unsettled
period of weather. The above mentioned front will likely stall
across our area or even shift a bit back northward on Friday,
while a low pressure system moves through the midwest and into
the great lakes region.

In terms of sensible weather, a lull in the rain shower activity
is possible Friday morning and possibly into the early
afternoon, before more rain showers start to move in ahead of
the low pressure system approaching the great lakes. At this
time, the bulk of the rain shower activity looks to be Saturday
through Saturday night and therefore this period has the
highest pops. Late Saturday night into Sunday, enough colder
air may move into the region to change over any lingering rain
showers to a mix of rain and snow showers, but this is highly
uncertain at this time.

Temperatures are also somewhat uncertain during this period,
depending on the timing positioning of the frontal systems. For
now, went with a blend of model guidance, which resulted in
highs on Friday mainly in the 50s, upper 50s to lower 60s on
Saturday, and mid 40s to lower 50s on Sunday. Went with lows
Friday night in the 40s and mid 30s to lower 40s Saturday night.

Sunday night through Monday: this is also another uncertain
period. 12z ECMWF indicates another elongated area of low
pressure moving through Sunday night, which could result in a
mix of rain and snow showers. Meanwhile the 12z GFS and canadian
keep the area dry with high pressure beginning to move in. For
now, capped pops at low end chance during this time period due
to the uncertain forecast. Went with lows Sunday night in the
20s to lower 30s and highs on Monday in the 40s.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
Vfr conditions are forecast areawide over the next 24 hours.

Some sct cirrus clouds will make it as far north as the ny
southern tier terminals later this afternoon into early evening.

Skies remains clear for the northern terminals the entire taf
period. A mid level cloud deck will move through avp this
afternoon and early evening before moving east with clear skies
returning here overnight into Tuesday morning.

North winds 6 to 12 kts this afternoon become variable less
than 5 kt overnight. North winds 8-15 kts redevelop by mid to
late morning Tuesday and continue through the day.

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR expected.

Thursday night through Saturday... Intermittent restrictions
possible as several rounds of showers move through the area.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Mjm
near term... Mjm
short term... Mjm mdp
long term... Bjg
aviation... Mjm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 30 mi58 min 30°F 1021.5 hPa (-1.2)11°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 82 mi58 min NNW 9.9 G 13 34°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 83 mi58 min 35°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Last
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W11
G15
W5
G12
W7
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NE17
NE18
G22
NE16
G20
N17
G22
NE16
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1 day
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W23
G34
W29
G36
W15
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G25
W15
G20
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G24
W15
G24
W16
G22
SW8
G15
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G15
S11
G14
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G19
W12
G18
W12
G16
W12
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G16
W9
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G16
2 days
ago
NW23
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G29
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NW25
NW21
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G29
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G28
NW20
G30
NW27
G33
NW25
G32
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W26
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G32
NW25
G31
W19
G27
W21
G27
W23
G28
W23
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G33
W22
G30
W26
W26
G34
W23
G32
W23
G31

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY7 mi64 minNNW 910.00 miA Few Clouds36°F3°F25%1020.8 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY20 mi64 minWNW 1010.00 miFair33°F3°F29%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW6W7W9SW9NW7NW12NW6NW13NW9NW9NW7NW6NW6N10N8N73W7NW7NW8NW7W10NW9
1 day agoW11W7W6SW8SW10W10W7W6SW6SW6SW4CalmSW5SW6SW6W13W11W12W12SW10SW11W15
G19
W9SW8
2 days agoW15
G26
NW16
G28
NW13W12W15
G21
W14
G22
W13W13
G23
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G24
W14
G21
W17
G29
W15
G21
W16W17
G25
W19
G28
W17
G30
NW18
G24
W20
G27
W18
G26
W18
G26
W17
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W19
G28
NW16NW16
G22

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.