Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 2:46 PM   Moonset 3:42 AM

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LOZ044 Expires:202404190900;;990048 Fzus51 Kbuf 190227 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1027 pm edt Thu apr 18 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-190900- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 1027 pm edt Thu apr 18 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. Friday night - West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 30 knots in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet. Saturday night - West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet. Sunday - West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. Monday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBGM 191327 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 927 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Another front will bring showers this afternoon and evening. It will turn breezy and cooler for the weekend with some rain or even snow showers possible Saturday afternoon and evening. A dry stretch of weather is finally expected Sunday through Tuesday, with seasonable temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
925 AM Update:

Made some minor tweaks to sky cover for this morning, but otherwise the forecast remains on track.

645 AM Update

No significant changes were made with this update. Minor tweaks to winds and sky cover...as expected it is starting off overcast across the region.

420 AM Update

Starting off overcast this morning for much of the area, with some patchy fog around as well. There could be a few breaks in the clouds at times by mid-morning. Otherwise, the next frontal boundary quickly moves into the area from the west by midday, with a narrow band of rain advancing through NE PA and CNY during the afternoon hours. The rain should reach I-81 by early afternoon, and the Catskills/Mohawk Valley by around 3-5 PM. Rainfall amounts with this front are light; generally up to around a tenth of an inch for CNY south of I-90 and all of NE PA...slightly higher totals up to a quarter inch are forecast over northern Oneida county where the southerly flow upslopes into the Tug Hill plateau. South winds increase out ahead of the front, becoming breezy at 8-15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph. This southerly flow will allow temperatures to reach 55 to 65, despite the clouds and showers around.

Showers continue this evening and into the overnight as the front slows down over the area. The front and the associated rain moves east of Binghamton by around 2 AM Saturday, the out of the CWA by around daybreak Saturday. Skies remain overcast to mostly cloudy all night...with a line of clearing just making it into the Finger Lakes and west-central souther tier of NY by daybreak (6AM Saturday).
Winds shift west-northwest behind the front, diminishing to around 10 mph. Seasonably cool, with lows 35 to 45 over the region.

The previous front exits the Poconos and Catskills by around 6-8AM Saturday morning, with a period of sunny skies expected back across most of Central NY and NE PA during the morning hours. A secondary, rather potent upper level shortwave races in the Central Great Lakes into our forecast area Saturday afternoon. Temperatures aloft fall from near 0C, to -5C at 850mb by Saturday evening as the trough swings into the area. Initially dry, stable and mainly sunny skies in the morning will quickly fade. As modest surface heating takes place low level (0-2km) lapse rates rise rapidly to around 10C/KM, MUCAPE reaches 75-150 J/kg and low to mid level moisture increases as the disturbances rolls into Central NY. This will bring a case of self-destructive sunshine...as surface temperatures rise and lapse rates steepen strato-cumulus clouds will quickly blossom over the area by midday and into the afternoon hours. There will be enough instability, moisture and forcing for scattered showers to develop...mainly from the Twin Tiers north into the NY Thruway corridor. With cold air advection bringing falling temperatures aloft the showers can be in the form of rain, graupel, small hail and perhaps even snow flakes by early evening, as freezing levels fall to between 1000-2000 ft agl. Highs early Saturday afternoon only reach 45-55 across CNY, with 50s for NE PA, except around 60 in the Wyoming Valley and along the Delaware river. These temperatures will fall by afternoon, as clouds increase, showers develop and it becomes colder aloft...925mb temperatures reach 0 to -2C by sunset over CNY. West winds winds be breezy, at 15 to 25 mph.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
300 AM Update...

A very large scale upper level trough centered over the Hudson Bay, combined with a low level high pressure system building into the region from the west will be the main weather drivers for this period.

NW flow over the region will advect in colder than normal temperatures Saturday night, with lows falling into the upper 20s to mid 30s across the region. High pressure at the surface will suppress lake effect cloud and shower development, bringing mostly clear skies overnight.

The cold air regime remains overhead Sunday, with continued NW flow keeping afternoon highs only in the upper 40s to low 50s across much of the region. Winds are expected to pick up Sunday afternoon across NY as a cold front moves into the area from the north, blowing out of the west at 12-17mph with gusts up to 25mph. The atmosphere will be dry so precipitation is not expected with this frontal passage.

A reinforcing shot of cold air is expected to move into the region Sunday night, keeping temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s across the region.

Cold air remains across most of the region Monday as the trough stubbornly hangs around. A surface high and associated ridge will build into the region during the afternoon hours, but not quick enough to allow warmer air to move into NY. Temperatures Monday will be in the upper 40s to low mid 50s across NY, with colder temperatures up north. NEPA will see more influence from the ridge, pushing afternoon highs into the upper 50s. The center of the high will move over the region Monday night, which should allow for radiational cooling to drop temps into the low to mid 30s, even with warmer air aloft building into the region.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
345 AM Update

The next storm system is expected to move into the region sometime Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning. Guidance is still a little off on the timing but it does agree that a trough will dig into the Great Lakes region, generating a surface low that will pass north of us and push a cold front and rain showers into the region Wednesday. A secondary shortwave will fill in behind this front as the overall trough pattern rotates from positively to negatively tilted. This brings a reinforcing shot of cold air into the region Wednesday night and Thursday. A rain/snow mix will be possible across the NE portion of the CWA as light showers hang around. With the center of the upper trough overhead Thursday, temps will still be cold and lingering rain/snow showers cannot be ruled out.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
645 AM Update

MVFR to MVFR Fuel Alternate restrictions currently at RME, SYR, ELM and AVP. BGM is LIFR, with below airport minimum CIGs at this time, with ITH also IFR.

BGM will slowly improve out of LIFR, to IFR by mid-morning (14z) then fuel alt, and just MVFR CIGs for the early afternoon.
The same gradual trend for improvement will occur at the rest of our taf sites as well, with most back to MVFR or low VFR by 16-18z this afternoon. SYR looks to reach VFR for a time late morning and early afternoon, before the next front moves in bringing renewed restrictions. Conditions fall back to MVFR Fuel Alt areawide after about 21-22z today...then even back to IFR at BGM and AVP expected this evening. ITH and ELM will be borderline IFR for a short period this evening as well. There will be occasional periods of light rain or showers in this timeframe over the region.

Drier air begins working in from the west, with fast rising CIGs at the end of this TAF period; ELM, ITH, SYR rise to VFR by 04-06z Saturday...reaching RME, BGM and AVP by 06-10z early Saturday morning.

Southeast winds increase today, between 8-15 kts with occasional gusts around 20-25 kts this afternoon. Winds shift southwest, then westerly behind the front this evening...while also decreasing back down around 10 kts.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR expected. Occasional MVFR CIGs /VSBYs possible for CNY terminals in the afternoon with sct'd showers.

Sunday...VFR expected.

Monday...VFR expected.

Tuesday...VFR expected.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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