Tuesday, January22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Constantia, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 5:05PM Tuesday January 22, 2019 2:19 AM EST (07:19 UTC) Moonrise 7:04PMMoonset 8:39AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201901221015;;726133 Fzus51 Kbuf 220223 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 923 Pm Est Mon Jan 21 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-221015- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 923 Pm Est Mon Jan 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am est Tuesday...
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Scattered snow showers late this evening, then scattered flurries after midnight. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming south. Snow overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Snow and rain in the morning, then rain in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Rain in the evening, then snow and rain showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Scattered snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 35 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constantia, NY
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location: 43.21, -76.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 220545
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1245 am est Tue jan 22 2019

Synopsis
Frigid northwest winds overnight will cause very low wind
chills through daybreak Tuesday. Lake effect snow showers and
flurries mainly in the finger lakes region and southern tier
will gradually diminish late this evening. Our next system may
cause a wintry mix late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Near term through today
10 pm update...

minor modifications were made this evening to temperatures and
dew points through Tuesday morning. With partial clearing taking
place, temperatures will bottom out several degrees below zero
across the region, except over the far northeastern forecast
area where minimums will range from -10 to -17.

Lake effect flurries and light snow showers will continue to
decrease in coverage as high pressure builds over the northeast.

4 pm update...

will extend wind chill headlines into Tuesday morning. Wind
chill warnings will continue for the eastern forecast area with
wind chill advisories elsewhere.

High pressure will gradually build over the area by daybreak
but before then enough flow will continue to justify an
extension of the wind chill flags. Overnight lows without the
wind considerations will range from zero to 15 below across
central new york and around zero in northeast pennsylvania. Wind
chills in the advisory area will range from 10 to 20 degrees
below zero with the warning area from 15 to 30 degrees below
zero.

Continued northwest flow overnight will bring more lake effect
snow showers primarily across the finger lakes and southern
tier. Snow accumulations around 2 inches is possible in areas
immediately downwind of cayuga, skaneateles and owasco
lakes. This activity will diminish to scattered flurries after
midnight as flow begins to weaken and inversion height is below
900 mb.

Tuesday... Surface high pressure will move from the local area
to western new england bringing a moderating flow during the
afternoon. Leaned toward the cooler GFS mos numbers with highs
in the upper teens to mid 20s.

Tuesday night... Surface low pressure will track into the western
great lakes by morning. Models have slowed the onset of
precipitation with the latest cycle. Will include chance slight
chance pops by daybreak across the western northern forecast.

Since flow through the column is from the south to southwest a
mid level warm layer will be overspreading the region at the
same time as precipitation onset. The activity will likely begin
as a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Temperatures
will be non diurnal during the overnight period.

Short term tonight through Thursday
Main concerns in the short term remain focused on the next round of
wintry mix Wednesday morning, changing to rain through the day, and
then back to snow Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Surface low over the great lakes with a warm front extending east
into central ny Wed morning will lift to the NE through the day as a
shield of precipitation fills in from the W sw. The antecedent air
mass in place across the region will be quite cold initially wed
morning with surface temperatures in the lower to mid 20s... And a
fairly deep cold boundary layer as well. The challenging point will
be a warm layer overrunning the cold surface air as the
precipitation falls. The latest GFS and NAM are the quickest and
most aggressive with the warm nose... And the cmc and ecwmf are
slightly slower. The forecast took a blend of these solutions... With
the leading edge of precip likely in the form of a snow sleet mix.

Thermal profiles have a nose of up to +2 deg c... And roughly a 1500
ft deep sub-freezing layer, which should be supportive of primarily
ice pellets sleet for most of the morning hours. Locations of oneida
county may remain cold enough to stay all snow and or sleet, so
approximately 1 to 3 inches of snow is possible through Wed morning.

The warm air aloft will remain steady or increase slightly AOA +3
deg c, through the day as the cold layer below warms as well. This
will allow for a brief period of freezing rain by late morning
before the entire depth of the boundary layer gets above freezing.

Precip is expected to become all rain by early to middle afternoon
wed.

The trailing cold front with this system will slow down a bit as a
secondary upper wave across the south phases back with the northern
branch later in the day Wed and Wed night. As this occurs an
additional surge of warm moist air will get advected north into this
system. This pattern will allow the rain to persist through most of
the night Wed over NE pa and portions of central ny... And into thur
morning in the poconos and SRN catskills. Some areas may see up to
an inch of rain during this time. Rises on area rivers and streams
is likely. Will need to keep an eye on the potential for localized
flooding.

The cold air behind the system will move in Thursday morning from
the NW and change the back-end rain showers over to snow. The change
over will take a bit longer over the southeastern counties, but most
locations should be cold enough for snow by thur afternoon. Snow
amounts will likely be limited to 3 inches or less.

Even with the wintry mix, temperatures on Wed will be a welcome
break from the cold, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 30s.

Mild overnight temperatures Wed night... In the 20s and 30s are
expected, with highs on Thursday remaining steady or falling through
the afternoon across the nwrn counties as the effects of the cold
front begin to be felt.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
The air mass coming in Thursday night will be another cold one.

Temperatures will fall into the teens with west winds around 5 to 10
mph making it feel like the single digits. Boundary layer winds out
of the west and enough cold air over lake ontario will allow lake
effect snow showers to develop... Mainly downwind east of the lake,
into oneida county, but scattered light snows into the rest of
central ny cannot be ruled out.

Temperatures in the 20s expected on Friday with lake effect clouds
and snow showers in the far NRN counties likely through Friday
night. Temperatures Friday night are expected to fall into the
single digits above and below zero as the arctic front plows through
the region. The wind flow is expected to remain generally west as a
stretched out upper low persists over james bay. This will keep the
cold air in place along with scattered lake effect snow showers on
Saturday. The cold air mass may see a very slight reprieve on Sunday
as winds shift to the SW and temperatures warm into the 20s. Either
way, it looks like a return to very late-january like temperatures
this weekend.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
Light lake effect snow showers and clouds will dissipate over
the next few hours as the flow becomes weak and drier air mixes
down. This will bringVFR conditions, which will continue
through the end of the TAF period. High pressure builds in at
the surface for Tuesday bringing clear skies, but aloft, return
flow develops out of the southeast bringing a risk for llws near
the end of the period.

Outlook...

late Tuesday night through Wednesday... Another system with snow
changing to wintry mix to rain with associated restrictions.

Wednesday night through Thursday... Rain gradually changing back
to snow on back side of system; restrictions likely.

Thursday night through Saturday... Restrictions possible in snow
showers, especially the ny terminals.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... Wind chill advisory until 7 am est this morning for paz038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.

Ny... Wind chill warning until 7 am est this morning for nyz009-036-
037-045-046-057-062.

Wind chill advisory until 7 am est this morning for nyz015>018-
022>025-044-055-056.

Synopsis... Rrm
near term... Djp rrm
short term... Bjt
long term... Bjt
aviation... Dgm djp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 30 mi38 min N 8.9 G 14 9°F 1034.6 hPa1°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 82 mi80 min N 12 G 17 15°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 83 mi38 min 13°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NW15
G20
NW15
G22
NW17
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G24
NW19
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N19
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N13
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1 day
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NE17
G24
NE13
G24
NE21
G31
NE21
G28
NE17
G29
NE22
G31
NE25
G31
NE26
NE18
G24
NE22
G27
N17
G23
N18
G23
NW16
G22
NW17
G21
NW18
G24
N18
G24
N17
G25
NW20
N21
G27
N21
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NW15
G29
NW21
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G26
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NE14
G23
NE15
G21
NE13
G17
NE14
G18
NE12
G16
NE13
G19
NE13
G17
NE15
G19
E6
G15
NE10
G14
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G18
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G23
NE15
G24
NE13
G20
NE8
G17
E8
NE5
G8
NE11
G15
NE9
G15
NE9
G14
NE15
G22

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY7 mi26 minW 710.00 miA Few Clouds1°F-2°F87%1035.1 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY20 mi26 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds0°F-5°F79%1035.4 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3NW13W10W11N4N4W12
G19
NW15
G22
NW16
G23
W15
G24
NW18
G24
W20
G27
NW17NW16NW13W8W7W6W7W7W8W6W5W7
1 day agoNE10NE11NE12
G19
NE10N10W9W14W16W15NW16
G23
NW15
G22
NW13
G23
NW12W11N6N6N7N12N5N5N8N4N4NW5
2 days agoNW9NW8NW7NW6NW6NW5NW4NW4CalmCalmN4N6N4N5N4N3E8E8NE11E11NE12E10E12NE10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.