Tuesday, May22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brockport, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 8:36PM Tuesday May 22, 2018 3:36 PM EDT (19:36 UTC) Moonrise 12:16PMMoonset 1:21AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1003 Am Edt Tue May 22 2018
Rest of today..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Showers, then a chance of showers late. Patchy fog this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Patchy fog. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 47 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201805222115;;355693 FZUS51 KBUF 221403 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1003 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-222115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brockport, NY
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location: 43.21, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 221839
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
239 pm edt Tue may 22 2018

Synopsis
Weak low pressure will cross the region with showers and a few
thunderstorms through this evening and areas of fog through tonight.

Surface high pressure will bring a period of dry weather Wednesday
through Friday. Afternoon high temperatures in the 70s midweek will
steadily increase to the lower 80s for the start of the weekend.

Near term through Wednesday
Weak low pressure across southern ontario province will track across
new york state this afternoon and into northern new england tonight.

A weak cold front trailing this system will move across the region
through this evening. This combined with limited surface bases
instability (mainly less than 500 j kg) will result in a line of
showers and a few thunderstorms developing across the western
southern tier and finger lakes region late this afternoon. Expect
this line to initially be scattered, but it should fill in as it
moves eastward into central new york late this afternoon and early
evening.

Areas of fog have developed across and just northeast of the lakes
ahead of the frontal boundary. This front is diffuse, with
increasing low moisture and diminishing winds resulting in more
widespread fog developing this evening. There may also be some
drizzle or light showers with this, which is probably overdone by
mesoscale and SREF guidance.

High pressure will ridge into the lower great lakes late tonight,
with drier air gradually building into the region. However, if skies
clear before daybreak it will probably be quickly followed by fairly
dense radiation fog. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s.

High pressure will expand across the region on Wednesday. There will
be some lingering stratus and fog in the morning, but this should
gradually dissipate by afternoon. High temperatures will be mainly
in the 70s, except slightly cooler along the immediate lakeshore.

Short term Wednesday night through Saturday night
The weather will be absolutely spectacular across the region for the
over whelming majority of this period... As a negatively tilted ridge
within a split flow will track across the great lakes region. The
ridge will deamplify with time though... And this will end up placing
our region between a slow moving back door cold front to the north
and the fringes of a large shield of tropical moisture to our south.

As we start the weekend... This will eventually bring an end to the
fine stretch of weather with showers and thunderstorms entering the
picture.

Long term Sunday through Monday
The forecast remains quite uncertain for next weekend into early
next week with significant model differences and run to run flips in
models. Abundant tropical moisture will continue to stream into the
southeast states through the period, but how much of that moisture
makes it all the way north into the eastern great lakes remains in
question.

The 12z ECMWF (from 5 21) is much more consistent with previous
ecmwf runs, and the previous GFS runs in keeping any drier air
well north of our region through early next week. This solution
is the model of choice, and will keep our area warm and rather
muggy Sunday through Monday. Expect highs in the lower 80s away
from lake influences and lows in the lower 60s through the
period. There will be a chance of a few showers and
thunderstorms each day, but forcing appears weak so expect the
showers to remain scattered in nature with rain free time each
day as well. The deepest of the tropical moisture and stronger
forcing looks to remain well south of our area through Monday.

Aviation 19z Tuesday through Sunday
The main concern for aviation is areas of low stratus and the
potential for dense fog. A southwesterly flow will mix moist
boundary layer air with the relatively cool lake waters resulting in
low stratus and fog northeast of the lakes which will impact buf art
and to a lesser extent iag. Expect mainly ifr or lower conditions at
these sites until after 06z tonight when winds shift to the
northwest and advects slightly drier air. There is a potential for
dense fog if ceilings lower to the ground, with low forecast
confidence at these locations.

Otherwise, weak low pressure and an associated frontal boundary will
shift winds to the northwest which will lower jhw to ifr and
maintain roc in the MVFR flight category. There also may be some
radiation fog late tonight if there is any clearing, which may also
be locally dense. Low moisture will gradually mix out Wednesday
morning with widespreadVFR flight conditions by the afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Friday...VFR.

Saturday... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers.

Sunday... MVFR. Showers likely.

Marine
Weak low pressure and an associated frontal boundary will track
across the lower great lakes through this evening. Winds will not be
very strong, however there will be areas of fog due to the warm
moist air across the relatively cool lake waters. Surface high
pressure will near the region Wednesday, passing over the eastern
great lakes Thursday, before shifting towards the southeast states
on Friday. This will maintain light winds and minimal waves through
the end of the week.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Apffel thomas
near term... Apffel
short term... Rsh
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Apffel
marine... Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 17 mi49 min 1013.1 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 18 mi37 min NNW 8.9 G 9.9 52°F 1014.2 hPa (-0.7)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 40 mi47 min 44°F 40°F1 ft1013.1 hPa (-1.6)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 42 mi37 min Calm G 0 51°F 1014.6 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY16 mi43 minW 12 G 2010.00 miOvercast71°F64°F79%1013.1 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN5NE9NE7NE4E3CalmE3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmS5SW9SW7SE10
G15
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G20
1 day agoNW6NW6NW8NW9NW7NW5W4W6W7W5W3W4W4W5W4SW45SW4NW3S3CalmCalmW5NW4
2 days agoS7S12S8S6S7S8SW14
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W10NW7NW8NW9NW10NW9NW8NW8N9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.