Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Brockport, NY
March 29, 2024 1:46 AM EDT (05:46 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:54 AM Sunset 7:35 PM Moonrise 11:31 PM Moonset 7:41 AM |
LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1027 Pm Edt Thu Mar 28 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am edt Friday through Saturday morning - .
Overnight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 30 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Friday night - West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday night - Northwest winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of rain showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday - East winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain Monday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 41 degrees.
the water temperature off rochester is 41 degrees.
LOZ005
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 290248 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1048 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
A ridge of high pressure will continue to build east into the eastern Great Lakes region through Saturday morning, supporting continued cool and dry weather. Low pressure will then move across the southern Great Lakes late Saturday through early Sunday, supporting a chance of some rain and wet snow.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Quiet night on tap across the region as surface high pressure centered over the Gulf Coast states crests northward across the Great Lakes. A wealth of high cloud cover associated with a low pressure system along the East Coast will persist across the eastern Lake Ontario region overnight, though skies should stay mostly clear back across western NY. Low temps will be in the low 30s and upper 20s across the forecast area, coldest across the higher terrain areas of the Southern Tier and North Country.
Broad, increasingly negatively tilted 500H troughing will shift east of the region Friday and Friday night as surface high pressure continues to build over the central and eastern Great Lakes. Some weak shortwave energy and cold advection at 850H in the wake of the primary trough axis combined with daytime heating will likely cause additional low cloud cover to develop through the course of the day Friday, with stable lake shadows keeping areas across the western Southern Tier and along the southern shore of Lake Ontario a bit sunnier. Some guidance is indicating some light QPF associated with the shortwave in the morning and then along/inland from the lake breeze boundaries in the afternoon, though with increasing stability and low-level dry air courtesy of the high to the west thinking this is likely overdone. The pressure gradient across the region between this high pressure and the deepening low climbing north into the Canadian Maritimes will increase on Friday, leading to a breezy day with widespread gusts of 20-30mph. Winds should then gradually subside Friday night with nocturnal stability developing after sundown.
Otherwise, temperatures will remain a touch on the cool side for late March Friday and Friday night with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s, and lows in the 20s to low 30s respectively.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Showery conditions for the middle portion of the weekend/short term forecast period. A weakening shortwave trough and sfc low will track across the region Saturday afternoon causing showers to move into the area, mainly south of Lake Ontario. As the batch of showers tracks into the area, weakening of the sfc low and trough with eastward progression will start to result in decreasing density of the shower coverage over the region. Whats left with this batch of showers will track southeast away from the forecast area later Saturday evening. A second shortwave trough will track west to east just north of Lake Ontario Saturday night. Showers will increase some from the northwest to the southeast, especially for the north country where the trough will be closest to. Showers over the eastern portions of the forecast area should be minimal. This will be in part due to moisture with this next shortwave will be on the lower side with PWats generally around a third of an inch and the trough will be in more of a weakening stage during this time. Rainfall amounts should range from a few hundredths of an inch near the south shore of Lake Ontario to around a tenth of an inch near the NY/PA border. Temperatures should be just cool enough for rain showers to mix with or change to snow for Saturday night, mainly across the higher terrain.
Temperatures for the period should be near to a few degrees above normal.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
On Monday an elongated and increasingly positively-tilted upper level trough will extend from the Rockies across the northern Great Plains...with lee-side surface cyclogenesis supporting the continued development of a broad surface low over the central and southern Plains states
Northeast of this low
a tight low-level baroclinic zone will extend eastward across the Ohio Valley...with one or more weak disturbances rippling east along this feature and possibly bringing the chance of a few light showers to western New York. With continued poor model agreement in the positioning of the frontal zone and consequently the track of any disturbances riding eastward along it...have elected to keep PoPs for Monday confined to the low chance range for now. Otherwise Monday looks to offer a milder than normal start to the month of April...with highs mostly ranging through the 50s.
After that the above mentioned upper trough will get sheared apart...with the bulk of its energy ejecting northeastward across the Plains states into the Great Lakes and Northeast...where this looks to engage in a complex interaction with northern stream energy dropping southeastward from Canada during the middle and latter portions of the week. The corresponding surface low will continue to develop and track northeastward toward our area Monday night and Tuesday...then will pass somewhere across our region between Tuesday night and Wednesday...before redeveloping off the New England coastline Thursday. This would result in a likelihood of fairly widespread precipitation developing across our area between later Monday night and Tuesday...then lingering through Wednesday before gradually tapering off thereafter.
As has been the case so far with this system...the various guidance packages continue to exhibit differences in how the two supporting streams of energy may interact...which then leads to differences in the overall strength and track of the low and consequently what precipitation types we might ultimately expect and when. A current model consensus suggests that temps should remain warm enough to support primarily rain through at least the first part of Tuesday night...with a little snow then possibly mixing in across the higher terrain later on in the night. More rain and possible higher elevation wet snow then looks to follow for Wednesday...before colder air wrapping in behind the system potentially brings about a more general accumulating wet snowfall Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Meanwhile temperatures should gradually cool through the period...with slightly above average highs on Tuesday giving way to somewhat below average readings for both Wednesday and Thursday.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions will prevail through the 00z TAF cycle as surface high pressure builds across the Great Lakes region.
Skies will remain mostly clear across western NY overnight tonight.
A wealth of high cloud cover will persist across the eastern Lake Ontario region through the pre-dawn hours as a low pressure system climbs up the East Coast.
Low clouds will expand in coverage across the forecast area through the course of the day Friday as weak cold air advection aloft combines with diurnal heating and lake breeze influences. Cigs are expected to be AOB 4k feet across the TAF sites, though may approach MVFR across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and North Country. Stable lake shadows should keep areas along the southern shore of Lake Ontario (possibly as far south as KROC/KIAG)
and in the western Southern Tier (KJHW) clearer.
A tightening pressure gradient across the region will lead to widespread WNW wind gusts of 20-25kts Friday.
Outlook...
Saturday...VFR, but with showers possible far west late.
Saturday night...MVFR/IFR with rain and wet snow.
Sunday...MVFR/IFR early with a chance of rain and snow showers, improving to VFR.
Monday...VFR to MVFR with a chance of rain.
Tuesday...MVFR with the likelihood of rain.
MARINE
Gentle to moderate southwest breeze across the region will slowly shift northwesterly overnight. This will maintain a chop across the waters on both lakes, though winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA criteria through the pre-dawn hours.
A ridge of high pressure will crest over the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday as low pressure moves into the Canadian Maritimes and deepens. This will cause the pressure gradient across the eastern Great Lakes to increase as winds back to the west, resulting in SCA conditions across the nearshore waters of both lakes into Friday night. Winds will likely be strongest across central and eastern Lake Ontario, with the choppiest wave action along the southeastern shoreline. Have held off on issuing any headlines for Lake Erie as conditions on the waters will be more marginal and likely not approach SCA criteria until the afternoon hours Friday.
Winds and waves will subside on both lakes late Friday night and through the day Saturday as the surface high moves directly overhead.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ043-044.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ045.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1048 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
A ridge of high pressure will continue to build east into the eastern Great Lakes region through Saturday morning, supporting continued cool and dry weather. Low pressure will then move across the southern Great Lakes late Saturday through early Sunday, supporting a chance of some rain and wet snow.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Quiet night on tap across the region as surface high pressure centered over the Gulf Coast states crests northward across the Great Lakes. A wealth of high cloud cover associated with a low pressure system along the East Coast will persist across the eastern Lake Ontario region overnight, though skies should stay mostly clear back across western NY. Low temps will be in the low 30s and upper 20s across the forecast area, coldest across the higher terrain areas of the Southern Tier and North Country.
Broad, increasingly negatively tilted 500H troughing will shift east of the region Friday and Friday night as surface high pressure continues to build over the central and eastern Great Lakes. Some weak shortwave energy and cold advection at 850H in the wake of the primary trough axis combined with daytime heating will likely cause additional low cloud cover to develop through the course of the day Friday, with stable lake shadows keeping areas across the western Southern Tier and along the southern shore of Lake Ontario a bit sunnier. Some guidance is indicating some light QPF associated with the shortwave in the morning and then along/inland from the lake breeze boundaries in the afternoon, though with increasing stability and low-level dry air courtesy of the high to the west thinking this is likely overdone. The pressure gradient across the region between this high pressure and the deepening low climbing north into the Canadian Maritimes will increase on Friday, leading to a breezy day with widespread gusts of 20-30mph. Winds should then gradually subside Friday night with nocturnal stability developing after sundown.
Otherwise, temperatures will remain a touch on the cool side for late March Friday and Friday night with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s, and lows in the 20s to low 30s respectively.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Showery conditions for the middle portion of the weekend/short term forecast period. A weakening shortwave trough and sfc low will track across the region Saturday afternoon causing showers to move into the area, mainly south of Lake Ontario. As the batch of showers tracks into the area, weakening of the sfc low and trough with eastward progression will start to result in decreasing density of the shower coverage over the region. Whats left with this batch of showers will track southeast away from the forecast area later Saturday evening. A second shortwave trough will track west to east just north of Lake Ontario Saturday night. Showers will increase some from the northwest to the southeast, especially for the north country where the trough will be closest to. Showers over the eastern portions of the forecast area should be minimal. This will be in part due to moisture with this next shortwave will be on the lower side with PWats generally around a third of an inch and the trough will be in more of a weakening stage during this time. Rainfall amounts should range from a few hundredths of an inch near the south shore of Lake Ontario to around a tenth of an inch near the NY/PA border. Temperatures should be just cool enough for rain showers to mix with or change to snow for Saturday night, mainly across the higher terrain.
Temperatures for the period should be near to a few degrees above normal.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
On Monday an elongated and increasingly positively-tilted upper level trough will extend from the Rockies across the northern Great Plains...with lee-side surface cyclogenesis supporting the continued development of a broad surface low over the central and southern Plains states
Northeast of this low
a tight low-level baroclinic zone will extend eastward across the Ohio Valley...with one or more weak disturbances rippling east along this feature and possibly bringing the chance of a few light showers to western New York. With continued poor model agreement in the positioning of the frontal zone and consequently the track of any disturbances riding eastward along it...have elected to keep PoPs for Monday confined to the low chance range for now. Otherwise Monday looks to offer a milder than normal start to the month of April...with highs mostly ranging through the 50s.
After that the above mentioned upper trough will get sheared apart...with the bulk of its energy ejecting northeastward across the Plains states into the Great Lakes and Northeast...where this looks to engage in a complex interaction with northern stream energy dropping southeastward from Canada during the middle and latter portions of the week. The corresponding surface low will continue to develop and track northeastward toward our area Monday night and Tuesday...then will pass somewhere across our region between Tuesday night and Wednesday...before redeveloping off the New England coastline Thursday. This would result in a likelihood of fairly widespread precipitation developing across our area between later Monday night and Tuesday...then lingering through Wednesday before gradually tapering off thereafter.
As has been the case so far with this system...the various guidance packages continue to exhibit differences in how the two supporting streams of energy may interact...which then leads to differences in the overall strength and track of the low and consequently what precipitation types we might ultimately expect and when. A current model consensus suggests that temps should remain warm enough to support primarily rain through at least the first part of Tuesday night...with a little snow then possibly mixing in across the higher terrain later on in the night. More rain and possible higher elevation wet snow then looks to follow for Wednesday...before colder air wrapping in behind the system potentially brings about a more general accumulating wet snowfall Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Meanwhile temperatures should gradually cool through the period...with slightly above average highs on Tuesday giving way to somewhat below average readings for both Wednesday and Thursday.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions will prevail through the 00z TAF cycle as surface high pressure builds across the Great Lakes region.
Skies will remain mostly clear across western NY overnight tonight.
A wealth of high cloud cover will persist across the eastern Lake Ontario region through the pre-dawn hours as a low pressure system climbs up the East Coast.
Low clouds will expand in coverage across the forecast area through the course of the day Friday as weak cold air advection aloft combines with diurnal heating and lake breeze influences. Cigs are expected to be AOB 4k feet across the TAF sites, though may approach MVFR across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and North Country. Stable lake shadows should keep areas along the southern shore of Lake Ontario (possibly as far south as KROC/KIAG)
and in the western Southern Tier (KJHW) clearer.
A tightening pressure gradient across the region will lead to widespread WNW wind gusts of 20-25kts Friday.
Outlook...
Saturday...VFR, but with showers possible far west late.
Saturday night...MVFR/IFR with rain and wet snow.
Sunday...MVFR/IFR early with a chance of rain and snow showers, improving to VFR.
Monday...VFR to MVFR with a chance of rain.
Tuesday...MVFR with the likelihood of rain.
MARINE
Gentle to moderate southwest breeze across the region will slowly shift northwesterly overnight. This will maintain a chop across the waters on both lakes, though winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA criteria through the pre-dawn hours.
A ridge of high pressure will crest over the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday as low pressure moves into the Canadian Maritimes and deepens. This will cause the pressure gradient across the eastern Great Lakes to increase as winds back to the west, resulting in SCA conditions across the nearshore waters of both lakes into Friday night. Winds will likely be strongest across central and eastern Lake Ontario, with the choppiest wave action along the southeastern shoreline. Have held off on issuing any headlines for Lake Erie as conditions on the waters will be more marginal and likely not approach SCA criteria until the afternoon hours Friday.
Winds and waves will subside on both lakes late Friday night and through the day Saturday as the surface high moves directly overhead.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ043-044.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ045.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY | 17 mi | 46 min | 38°F | |||||
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY | 18 mi | 46 min | WSW 9.9G | 39°F | 30.00 | |||
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 42 mi | 46 min | WSW 7G | 37°F | 29.99 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KROC GREATER ROCHESTER INTL,NY | 16 sm | 52 min | W 06 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 36°F | 25°F | 64% | 29.97 | |
KGVQ GENESEE COUNTY,NY | 17 sm | 50 min | SW 06 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 34°F | 25°F | 69% | 29.95 |
Buffalo, NY,
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