Tuesday, October17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brockport, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 6:24PM Tuesday October 17, 2017 7:23 AM EDT (11:23 UTC) Moonrise 3:59AMMoonset 4:46PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1047 Pm Edt Mon Oct 16 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night...
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201710170915;;975295 FZUS51 KBUF 170247 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1047 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-170915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brockport, NY
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location: 43.21, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 171057
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
657 am edt Tue oct 17 2017

Synopsis
High pressure centered over the ohio valley will bring mostly
sunny skies to the region today. The high will shift south of
our region tonight and stall over the mid-atlantic coastline
through the end of the week. This will provide an extended
period of dry weather and above normal temperatures. The next
chance of rain is forecast next Monday with a cold front.

Near term through tonight
High pressure is centered along the ohio valley early this morning
with ridging extended northeast across the eastern great lakes.

After some morning frost and valley fog, expect a mostly sunny
day across the region.

There are a some lower clouds over lake erie this morning, but
these are low topped without any accompanying radar returns in
an overall dry environment. Expect this to mix out quickly with
morning sunshine. A thin band of higher clouds may try to work
its way SW toward the region later this am, but this too will
move into an increasingly dry environment. A surface gradient
between the high pressure and a surface low moving eastward
across northern ontario quebec may produce some gusty winds this
afternoon, but otherwise expect an uneventful day in terms of
weather with near normal highs (mid 50s to lower 60s.)
tonight, the center of the surface high shifts over virginia with
ridging continuing to extend north across new york state. Expect
mainly clear skies but winds will remain a bit breezy most likely
preventing much of any fog development. The winds and dewpoints a
bit higher than tonight should keep overnight lows limited to the
40s with perhaps 50 near the lake shores.

Short term Wednesday through Friday night
This period will be characterized by fair dry weather... As the
center of an expansive surface high will oscillate back and forth
between the mid atlantic states and the ohio valley. The only
potential fly in the ointment during this time frame will be a dry
cool frontal passage late Thursday-Thursday evening... But even this
will barely be noticeable with nothing more than a 3-6 hour window
of increased cloud coverage and a pause in our day to day warming
trend.

Temperatures during this three day period will average 5 to 10
degrees above normal... With the greatest departures coming by day
when afternoon mercury readings will generally be in the mid to
upper 60s.

Long term Saturday through Monday
Model guidance remains in excellent agreement, with high forecast
confidence in a dry pattern with above normal temperatures through
next weekend. This will be due to broad upper level ridge along the
eastern seaboard and an elongated area of high pressure extending
from eastern canada to the eastern conus. Forecast high temperatures
hedge warmer than consensus guidance given the high forecast
confidence with highs averaging in the mid to upper 60s Friday and
warming into the 70s over the weekend. The combination of dry
weather and above normal temperatures will provide excellent weather
for the weekend.

This ridge will finally start to break down Sunday night, with a
weak cold front expected to cross the region on Monday. This will
bring a chance of showers, and slightly cooler weather going into
next week.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
ExpectVFR conditions except for local valley fog this am, with
vfr conditions areawide for the remainder of the day. A few mid
and high clouds will move across the region, but overall clr to
sct conditions are expected with high pressure centered over
the ohio valley.

A tight pressure gradient will also bring gusty winds to
25-30kts by this afternoon. Winds will remain breezy tonight
with clear skies. The winds should prevent much fog development
in the western southern tier late tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...VFR except for local ifr in river
valley fog each late night and early morning.

Marine
High pressure is in place this morning, but expect southwest
winds to develop shortly after daybreak as a pressure gradient
tightens over the eastern great lakes. Small craft advisory
conditions will be found for lake erie and ontario along with
the upper niagara river and saint lawrence river. Advisories for
the rivers will only last through the daylight hours but over
the lakes into tonight.

Another period of light winds waves expected Wednesday as high
pressure shifts across the mid-atlantic region then the pressure
gradient over the eastern lakes tightens up again Thursday with the
approach of a cold front.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Frost advisory until 8 am edt this morning for nyz001>006-010-
011-013-014-019-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt this evening
for lez020.

Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 am edt
Wednesday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 5 am
edt Wednesday for loz043.

Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 2 am edt
Wednesday for loz042.

Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 am edt
Wednesday for loz044-045.

Small craft advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt this
evening for slz022-024.

Synopsis... Smith zaff
near term... Smith zaff
short term... Rsh
long term... Apffel
aviation... Smith zaff
marine... Smith zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 17 mi54 min 38°F 1025.6 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 18 mi84 min SSW 11 G 13 39°F 1026.4 hPa (-0.0)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 40 mi94 min S 14 G 16 49°F 60°F1 ft1025 hPa (-0.0)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 42 mi84 min SSE 8 G 9.9 40°F 1025.4 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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S7
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G9
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G12
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G15
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G12
S17
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G22
S16
G20

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY16 mi30 minSW 810.00 miFair36°F33°F89%1026.5 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10NW9NW12NW6NW14
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NW10NW12N10NW14NW12NW7NW3CalmW3CalmSW3SW4W3SW5SW5SW6SW6SW8SW8
1 day agoSW13
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N10NW10NW10NW8NW10NW11
2 days agoSW7SW8S8SW5SW6S5CalmCalmE7NE9NE9E5E5E5E4E3SE3S4SW5SW6S7S6SW9
G17
SW12
G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.