Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 8:45PM Monday May 29, 2017 1:43 AM EDT (05:43 UTC) Moonrise 8:44AMMoonset 11:30PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 731 Pm Edt Sun May 28 2017
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this evening. Showers with Thunderstorms likely after midnight...then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ042 Expires:201705290300;;368373 FZUS51 KBUF 282349 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 731 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LOZ042-290300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, NY
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location: 43.22, -78.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 290237
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1037 pm edt Sun may 28 2017

Synopsis
Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will shift across
western and north-central new york overnight as a warm front crosses
the region. Showers will taper off from west to east on Monday. More
showers will be possible Monday night into Tuesday, as a weakening
cold front crosses the region. In fact, mild temperatures and
afternoon showers will be possible through the coming week, as a
broad upper level trough will linger across the region.

Near term through Monday
Buffalo radar at 1030pm shows widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms oriented ahead of and along a warm front lifting north
across western ny. This will continue to shift over western ny
through the overnight in two rounds. The first round along the warm
front and the second round now crossing the thumb of michigan
oriented along the cold front. Both front are expected to occlude
overnight while shifting east into central new york. Severe storms
are not expected as instability has weakened with the loss of
daytime heating but heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms can
certainly be expected with some pockets of frequent lightning.

Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to taper off from west
to east during the day on Monday as an upper level shortwave driving
the frontal system and precipitation moves overhead, with NVA and
associated subsidence behind the wave drying things out. While much
of the precipitation will be convective in nature at least through
the evening hours allowing for locally higher qpfs, a general
quarter to half inch can be expected across the forecast area though
tonight and Monday morning.

Regarding temperatures, given the moisture-rich high dewpoint air
that will be advecting into the region tonight, temperatures will
only bottom out in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Drier, but still
relatively warm air will move in behind the departing mid upper
level troughing on Tuesday, and temperatures should top out in the
low to mid 70s away from the lakes. However, with southwesterly
winds strengthening behind the trough, cooler readings will be found
downwind of the lakes, with upper 60s prevailing.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday night
An upper level closed low over the southern shore of lake winnipeg
this afternoon will drop across the great lakes and influence our
weather for the Monday night through Wednesday night time period.

Several shortwaves rotating around the upper level low will give
increase chances for showers and thunderstorms. Though this wet
month of may will close out with thunderstorms, much of the time
will be rainfree.

Monday night the first such shortwave, and associated low level wind
speed max, will near our region. Convergence along this little speed
max in the lower levels and around 100 to 250 j kg of MUCAPE may
produce a shower or thunderstorm, with activity later in the
evening across wny, and in the predawn hours east of lake ontario.

Another shortwave impulse on Tuesday, combined with the upper level
low drawing closer will bring increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms. The bulk of this activity will likely form on lake
breeze boundaries through the afternoon and evening hours. Mlcape
values of 500 to 750 j kg and pwat values around three quarters of
an inch will provide the instability and moisture that when
interacting with the lift along lake breeze boundaries, convection
is likely to form. A morning inversion will likely keep this
convection at bay, but by noontime convection should be able to
overcome the decreasing capping inversion. Moisture is not overly
impressive, and activity may be just scattered in nature. Northeast
of the lakes, a southwest stabilizing wind flow will promote
sunshine and likely a dry day for areas such as metro buffalo, and
north of watertown. Winds will also be gusty within the sunshine
northeast of the lakes, with gusts 30 to 35 mph.

Wednesday may be a bit more active as upper level heights fall in
response to the upper level low reaching the region, and its trough
axis crossing the lower lakes. Similar to Tuesday, much of the
activity will be upon lake breeze boundaries, with showers and
thunderstorms sprouting in the afternoon heating. Northeast of the
lakes, a stabilizing lake induced airmass will maintain metro
buffalo, and areas north of watertown dry through the day, with a
gusty breeze. With the upper level trough axis passing through
chances for storms will be possible across the region through the
evening hours.

Temperatures will be held in check by the upper level low, with
highs in the 60s, (cooler Wednesday with the upper level low upon
us) and overnight temperatures back into the mid 50s to upper 40s.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
The region will be in a longwave cyclonic flow during the
period with frequent chances for precipitation and slightly
below normal temperatures. There will be periods of dry weather
too, however timing embedded shortwaves is difficult this far
out.

On Thursday the upper level low will be centered just south of
hudson bay with a ridge of high pressure at the surface across
the appalachians. For the most part, this surface ridge should
keep the area dry, with a small chance for showers across the
north country Thursday afternoon with the passage of a weak
shortwave. Highs will be in the mid 60s to around 70.

Model consensus drops the upper level low into southern quebec by
late Friday, which will eventually push a cold front southward
across the region. Model guidance differs on the timing, with a
chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm along and ahead
of the cold front late Thursday night through Friday evening.

This front is likely to stall to the south of the area late
Friday night and Saturday. It will be close, but as long as it
remains to the south surface ridging will keep Saturday dry.

Highs on Friday and Saturday will be on the cool side behind
this front... Mainly in the 60s.

The front should meander northward back into the area on Sunday.

Some guidance develops a wave along this front, with another chance
for showers and possibly a thunderstorm. The best chance will be
across southern portions of the CWA which will be closest to the
boundary.

Aviation 03z Monday through Friday
Widespread -shra and sct -tsra are shifting north across western ny
along a warm front near 03z. Two rounds of showers storms are
expected with the first round occuring now and a second round coming
from eastern lower michigan along the occluding cold front. All of
this activity will shift into central ny early Monday while staying
below severe limits. Periods of MVFR will be possible in heavier -
shra -tsra, with MVFR and isolated ifr CIGS becoming more widespread
after 06z, with plenty of lingering moisture across the area.

Showers and thunderstorms will taper off from west to east after 12z
Monday, as the upper level disturbance moves through.VFR conditions
will prevail by Monday afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday night... MainlyVFR, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday through Friday... MainlyVFR... With localized MVFR possible
in scattered (mainly afternoon) showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
Southeasterly winds occuring ahead of warm front. This front will
move across the eastern great lakes through overnight, accompanied
by showers and thunderstorms. Skies will clear out behind the
occluding frontal system on Monday, with winds shifting to
southwesterly and freshening to around 15kts by Monday afternoon,
resulting in light to moderate chop on the northeastern ends of the
lakes.

The SW flow will strengthen further Tuesday, as a cold front moves
through, potentially generating small craft conditions on the east
end of lake erie. In fact, an upper level trough will linger through
much of the coming week, with SW flow continuing as a result. This
will serve to reinforce afternoon lake breezes northeast of the
lakes, resulting in at least near-sca conditions each afternoon
through the rest of the week.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Smith wood
near term... Smith wood
short term... Thomas
long term... Apffel
aviation... Smith wood
marine... Smith wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 22 mi43 min 68°F 1005.8 hPa (-0.6)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi43 min S 7 G 11 69°F 1006.8 hPa (-0.7)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 37 mi43 min SSE 7 G 11 67°F 1005.1 hPa (-1.3)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 44 mi53 min SE 9.7 G 9.7 53°F 46°F1 ft1005.5 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY21 mi49 minS 510.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F59°F76%1006.2 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW3CalmCalmSW3CalmE4E7E7SE4S844SE7
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1 day agoW6W6W5W5W3W4W3W3W3W4N4N63CalmCalmCalmW3CalmN4NE4CalmSW4NE3Calm
2 days agoW4W4W5W7W7NW7W8W9W9NW9NW10NW6NW7NW9NW4W13
G18
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.