Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 7:30PM Thursday March 23, 2017 12:21 PM EDT (16:21 UTC) Moonrise 3:35AMMoonset 1:45PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 640 Am Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Today..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Rain likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast less than 10 knots. Rain likely in the evening...then rain with areas of drizzle overnight. Areas of fog overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Areas of fog during the day. Rain with areas of drizzle during the day...then rain Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less building to 4 to 7 feet.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Rain likely during the day...then a chance of rain Monday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
LOZ042 Expires:201703231515;;946579 FZUS51 KBUF 231040 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 640 AM EDT THU MAR 23 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LOZ042-231515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, NY
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location: 43.22, -78.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 231455
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1055 am edt Thu mar 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure ridged across the lower great lakes will continue fair
weather today. A warm front will bring a period of rain or mixed
precipitation late tonight and Friday, followed by warmer
temperatures. This front will stall across the region this weekend,
with several disturbances moving along the front and bringing
periods of rain over the weekend and into the first half of next
week.

Near term /through tonight/
High pressure ridging across new york will continue to shift its
center over the mid atlantic states through this afternoon resulting
in the present fair weather and sunny skies. High clouds will
approach from the west in advance of our next system late in the
day. Temperatures will warm significantly during the day with highs
around 40 across far western new york with lower to mid 30s
elsewhere.

Things will get more active late tonight when a warm front extending
from a system across colorado approaches the region. This boundary
will be best defined in the mid-levels with a sharpening thermal
gradient and southwesterly 850mb winds increasing to around 45 kts
by 12z Friday. This will result in a round of precipitation late
tonight.

Model guidance has trended slightly slower with this, with a
consensus bringing this precipitation into western new york well
after midnight. Despite minor shifts in timing, confidence in
measurable precipitation is high given the synoptic scale lift and
good model agreement. Although this should primarily fall as rain,
it still may start off as a brief period of mixed precipitation.

Forecast thermal profiles suggest snow, sleet, and freezing rain are
all possibilities across the interior with warmer surface
temperatures across the lake plains west of rochester likely to
result in just plain rain.

Of these precipitation types, the most critical is the chance for
freezing rain since even trace amounts of ice can be problematic.

Although warming mid-level temperatures will eventually rule out
snow or sleet, surface temperatures will be the key with these
expected to be near freezing across the interior at the onset.

However, if high clouds move in a bit early this evening, surface
temperatures may be warmer which would lower the risk for any
freezing rain. Following coordination with neighboring offices, we
will continue to mention this in the hwo outlook.

Short term /Friday through Saturday night/
This period will feature a prolonged period of precipitation as a
frontal boundary approaches and then stalls across the region.

Rainfall amounts of one to two inches over a 48-hr period starting
12z Friday will produce a soggy ground and low-lying ponding of
water. With the rain spread out enough through the period it will
limit any flash flooding concerns.

Looking into the details this early Thursday morning, a surface
anticyclone is found over the NW territories, and this feature will
supply cold air, with the leading edge of the cold airmass now
dipping southward over the southern canadian prairies. Meanwhile
water vapor imagery displays a deep trough of low pressure over
southern california, heading towards the desert sw. The sprawling
area of surface high pressure that is over us now, will slide to the
east today. A southerly flow around the high pressure will be
increasing moisture, with a 50 knot LLJ bringing deeper moisture
northward. Through this time period the canadian cold front will
slide towards the eastern great lakes region, stalling as the sw
upper level low begins to pull milder, and more moist air northward
across the ohio valley region.

Initially isentropic upglide motion will bring precipitation that
will continue to spread across our region Friday morning. There will
be a concern for freezing rain briefly at the onset of falling
precipitation as lingering cold air leaves a surface that will be
near freezing. There will not be a surface high pressure over quebec
freshening this cold air, so the southerly winds should be able to
scour out any subfreezing temperatures quickly, but still a threat
will be there for freezing rain, especially across the southern
tier, and northeastward across the genesee valley/finger lakes
region and into the eastern lake ontario region. This area of mainly
rain will push northward, possibly exiting the so. Tier by early
morning, while then reaching the north country.

As the cold front from canada drops towards the region Friday night,
a baroclinic frontal zone will tighten over the region. The threat
for rain will continue along the boundary. Rainfall could be
moderate as +2sd pwats develop across the region and along the
frontal boundary. This frontal boundary will sag southward some
later Friday night and Saturday as the arctic high pressure pushes
colder, denser and drier air southward. As the boundary shifts
southward, so will the axis of precipitation, with rainfall at this
time largely falling along and behind the cold front. A northerly
flow may bring areas of drizzle and fog south of lake ontario Friday
night and into Saturday. The lower boundary layer across the saint
lawrence valley and eastern lake ontario region may become cold
enough to support some wintry mix precipitation Friday night.

The cold front will return northward as a warm front by Saturday
night as the SW upper level low is now reaching the mid-mississippi
valley and lower ohio valley. This upper level low will air in
establishing a deep southerly, moist flow that will continue chances
for precipitation through Saturday night.

There will be chances for snow/sleet Saturday night across the
eastern lake ontario region, and possibly SE of lake ontario as the
arctic high pressure pushes a shallow cold airmass across the
region.

There will be a good spread in temperatures across the region this
period. Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 50s south of the
frontal boundary, while to the north highs will only manage to reach
the 40s.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/
An active wet pattern will continue Sunday into at least the middle
of next week as western and north-central ny will remain within the
track of at least two mid-level troughs. Each of these troughs will
provide synoptic lift over and moist southerly flow into our region
that will interact with a low frontal boundary. The first will shift
over our region in the Sunday-Monday time frame while the second
looks to shift over our region Tuesday. It appears now that this
boundary from Sunday into Monday will lie further to the north
towards or across the saint lawrence river valley then should be
shoved even further northeast by the second trough/surface low. For
western ny into the finger lakes, the position of this front will
allow for plenty of low level warm air to support high confidence
for a soaking plain rain. Looking across the north country into the
saint lawrence valley, the position of the front will be more
sensitive to p-type and a risk for some freezing rain Sunday night
and Monday night with cold northeasterly flow down the slv. Have
kept any wording for freezing rain at chance pops due to the
uncertainty in frontal position this far out.

In terms of surface temperatures, areas to the south of the front
will mainly feature warmer temps upper 40s into the 50s while areas
north of the boundary will see cooler temperatures 30s and lower 40s
with some 20s possible in the north country during the overnights.

In terms of qpf, a rough average accumulated total among the models
Sunday through Tuesday ranges from around a half inch on the ecmwf
to around 2 inches on the gfs. While the long duration of this event
should not bring any flash flooding concerns, river and stream rises
and areal flooding of low-lying areas may be possible. If sub-
freezing air remains locked at the surface on the north side of the
front there could also be a threat of some significant ice
accumulations but the lowest confidence is found in that scenario.

Overall, confidence on the specific placement of any weather hazards
during this period is fairly low at this range which has precluded a
mention in the hazardous weather outlook.

On Wednesday, the second surface low will shift off into new england
with a cooler and perhaps very dry northwest flow in its wake. The
12z ECMWF shows very dry air with just a cool northwest flow on
Wednesday while the GFS shows some lingering wrap around moisture
may lead to some upslope/lake enhanced showers. Have gone with
slight/low chance pops for Wednesday under a more clear signal shows
up in the guidance.

Aviation /15z Thursday through Monday/
High pressure ridged across the region will continue clear skies
through much of the afternoon. The surface high will drift to the
mid atlantic through today with a modest increase in mid/high clouds
from west to east late this afternoon into this evening.

Clouds will thicken and lower tonight, but it should generally
remain dry and in theVFR category until just before 12z Friday
when precipitation moves in. This should fall mainly as rain,
but may start as snow, sleet, or freezing rain at art/jhw. There
is also a potential for llws at jhw late tonight due to
increasing winds aloft.

Outlook...

Friday... Deterioration to MVFR/ifr with rain. The rain may begin as
a brief period of freezing rain or snow in some areas.

Saturday thru Monday... MVFR/ifr with rain likely at times.

Marine
High pressure ridged across the lower great lakes will slide to the
mid atlantic states this afternoon and maintain light winds and
negligible waves through this evening.

S to SW winds will increase Friday, and will approach small craft
criteria across eastern portions of lake erie and ontario. After
this, a warm frontal boundary will stall across the region, with a
northeasterly flow likely on lake ontario and variable winds on lake
erie. This may require small craft headlines on lake ontario at
times this weekend.

Buf watches/warnings/advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Apffel/smith
near term... Apffel/smith
short term... Thomas
long term... Smith
aviation... Apffel/smith
marine... Apffel/smith


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 22 mi51 min 29°F 1036.8 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi81 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 28°F 1037.9 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY21 mi27 minVar 310.00 miFair29°F10°F47%1037.4 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN15
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NW10NW10W5W5W5W4NW4W4W5W5W5SW3SW3SW4SW4SW5453
1 day agoW14W13W14W16W14W14W10NW18
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2 days agoSW53S6S7SW3SW4SW3CalmS3SW3CalmCalmSW4CalmCalmCalmW4SW3SW4W4W6W7W10W12
G19

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.