Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 7:03PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 10:33 AM EDT (14:33 UTC) Moonrise 12:14PMMoonset 10:04PM Illumination 34% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 632 Am Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
Today..Light and variable winds. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..East winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers Thursday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest less than 10 knots. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less.
LOZ042 Expires:201709261515;;954040 FZUS51 KBUF 261032 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 632 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-261515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, NY
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location: 43.22, -78.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 261040
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
640 am edt Tue sep 26 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will keep dry weather and midsummerlike warmth across
our region through most of Wednesday. An approaching cold front may
finally bring a few light showers late Wednesday and Wednesday
night... Followed by much cooler temperatures for Thursday right on
through the weekend.

Near term through tonight
High pressure will remain across the region with fair weather and
light winds. Satellite imagery shows some thin high clouds
across the region this morning. There is also patchy fog which
will dissipate by mid- morning.

Today will be very similar to yesterday, with only subtle
differences. Consensus 850mb temperatures are about 1-2c cooler,
suggesting highs will be slightly cooler than yesterday (think 2-3
degrees f) but still well above normal. Also, the ridge axis will be
across southern new england which will allow a southwesterly lake
breeze to become a bit better developed today. Record highs for
today are 87f at buffalo (1959)... 89f at rochester (1900)... And 82f
at watertown (1970). Highs today will average in the mid to upper
80s, with record (or near record) highs forecast at all 3 climate
locations.

Otherwise, there is a bit more moisture today with some mesoscale
guidance hinting at isolated showers developing inland of the lake
breeze across the western southern tier. A weak mid-level cap is
likely to prevent any showers from developing, though an isolated
shower cannot completely be ruled out.

Tonight will be another warm night and muggy night with lows in the
lower to mid 60s. High pressure will continue to ridge into the
region with dry weather, but high clouds will linger across the
region. A light southerly flow will develop late in the night with
fog a bit more patchy in nature than it has been the past couple
nights.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
Wednesday morning a weak ridge of high pressure at the surface will
still be in place from the ohio valley to new england, providing dry
weather and some sunshine to start the day. A cold front will
approach from the northwest during the afternoon. Despite having a
fairly sharp temperature gradient, forcing and deep moisture
continue to look meager along the cold front. Most of the mid level
height falls and dpva will be displaced well north of the great
lakes, leaving low level convergence along the front as the only
real forcing. A few scattered showers may develop along lake breeze
boundaries ahead of the front during the afternoon, with a few more
showers with the actual cold frontal passage during the late
afternoon and evening. There may be just enough instability along
the front to support an isolated, weak thunderstorm during the late
afternoon.

Wednesday will be the last warm day for awhile. Expect highs in the
lower 80s in western ny and mid 80s from the genesee valley to
central ny. These highs will be reached by early afternoon, with
temperatures pulling back a few degrees during the mid to late
afternoon as clouds increase and scattered showers develop.

Wednesday evening the cold front will move southeast across the
area, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms ending from
northwest to southeast. A strong push of dry air and subsidence in
the wake of the cold front will allow for clearing skies during the
evening. Overnight, ongoing cold advection will allow for increasing
lake induced instability. Low inversion heights and a wealth of dry
air should prevent any lake effect showers, but there will be enough
instability and NW upslope flow to support increasing lake effect
clouds overnight. Strong cold advection will allow temperatures to
drop into the 50s overnight.

On Thursday much cooler NW flow will continue as high pressure
settles into the midwest states. Despite the cold air aloft over the
warm lakes, a very dry airmass and short NW fetch will continue to
prevent any lake effect showers with dry conditions expected. Lake
effect and upslope clouds will be most prominent in the morning,
with diurnal mixing allowing for a mix of clouds and Sun during the
afternoon. It will be much cooler than early this week, with highs
only in the mid 60s at lower elevations and around 60 on the hills.

Thursday night a strong shortwave will dive into the western great
lakes, with a surface low taking shape over the central great lakes
in response to the increasing synoptic scale forcing and latent and
sensible heat flux from the aggregate influence of all the lakes.

Increasing moisture and forcing may allow a few showers to approach
western ny late Thursday night, and a few lake effect showers may
also develop southeast of the lakes. Expect lows in the lower 50s
along the lakeshores and mid 40s across the interior southern tier
and east of lake ontario.

Long term Friday through Monday
A much cooler pattern will arrive for Friday through the weekend as
a longwave trough briefly establishes across the great lakes and new
england. It appears this cool down will be relatively short lived,
lasting for about 4 days. By early next week another strong trough
will become established across the northern rockies, which will
force strong height rises and a return to dry weather and above
normal temperatures, albeit not nearly as warm as this past week.

Looking at the details, a sharpening mid level trough will dive
southeast across the great lakes on Friday. Weak low pressure will
develop in response to this trough, along with latent and sensible
heat flux from the aggregate influence of all the great lakes.

Increasing moisture and large scale forcing, in addition to lake
enhancement will bring an increasing chance of rain showers Friday
and Friday evening with the passage of the trough.

This system will move east of the area Saturday morning, with a
return to dry weather later Saturday through early next week as high
pressure builds back into the ohio valley and eastern great lakes.

Temperatures will continue to run a little below normal Friday and
Saturday. Highs Friday will be in the mid 60s across lower
elevations and around 60 on the hills. Saturday will be the coolest
day with highs only around 60 at lower elevations and mid 50s on the
hills. A warming trend then ensues through early next week, with
highs back to near 70 by Monday. Lows will generally be in the 40s
away from the immediate lakeshores over the weekend. Saturday night
and early Sunday morning will likely be the coldest as high pressure
begins to build in. This may allow for lows in the 30s in the
typically cooler areas of the interior southern tier and east of
lake ontario, with some frost not out of the question of lake effect
clouds clear.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
There is patchy radiation fog across the region at daybreak,
lowering vsby to 1-5sm in spots. Vsby will vary, impacting the
jhw iag art terminal locations at times through 13z. Fog will
dissipate by mid-morning.

Otherwise, expect widespreadVFR conditions today through this
evening. Patchy fog is possible tonight, but should be less
widespread and mainly confined to the southern tier valleys
(jhw).

Outlook...

Wednesday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers in the
afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday... MainlyVFR... With a chance of
showers Friday and Saturday.

Marine
High pressure will remain in place across the lower great lakes
right through Wednesday morning. This will provide a long stretch of
very light winds and flat wave action with ideal boating conditions,
but not much wind for sailing.

A cold front will cross the region late Wednesday. Northwest winds
will increase in the wake of the cold front, and may bring a round
of advisory-worthy winds and waves to lakes erie and ontario late
Wednesday through early Thursday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Apffel hitchcock
near term... Apffel
short term... Hitchcock
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Apffel
marine... Apffel hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 22 mi46 min 78°F 1016.4 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi34 min S 2.9 G 4.1 78°F 1017.3 hPa (+0.4)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 37 mi34 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 72°F 1016.6 hPa (+0.0)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 44 mi44 min S 5.8 G 7.8 72°F 72°F1016.2 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY21 mi40 minSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F68°F82%1016.8 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3SW4CalmCalmNE3E5NE11NE7NE6E4E4CalmCalmSW4CalmW4SW4SW4SW5W3SW3CalmSW5SW5
1 day agoCalmCalm3N6NW53NE6N6N4CalmCalmCalmW3SW4SW4SW4SW3SW3SW4SW4SW3SW4SW5W4
2 days agoW3SW5W65NW9W8W5W5W4SW3SW4W5SW5SW3SW5SW4W3W3SW5SW4SW5SW5SW6W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.