Monday, January21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 5:12PM Monday January 21, 2019 1:49 PM EST (18:49 UTC) Moonrise 5:55PMMoonset 8:01AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 1246 Pm Est Mon Jan 21 2019
.heavy freezing spray warning in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Freezing spray. Scattered flurries. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds to 30 knots becoming west and diminishing to 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny in the morning, then becoming cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow in the evening, then snow and sleet overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Rain during the day, then rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
LOZ042 Expires:201901212230;;707300 FZUS51 KBUF 211746 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1246 PM EST Mon Jan 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-212230-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, NY
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location: 43.22, -78.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 211812
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
112 pm est Mon jan 21 2019

Synopsis
Surface high pressure will move overhead tonight with another
night of bitterly cold temperatures. Some flurries may be found
near the lakeshores. Warmer air returns Tuesday as an area of
surface low pressure moves toward the central great lakes
region. This will result in a short period of above normal
temperatures along with some mixed precipitation mid-week.

Another blast of cold weather will return toward the end of the
week.

Near term through Tuesday
Lingering flurries and blowing snow this afternoon will mostly
come to an end tonight as surface high pressure builds into the
region. Flurries may linger near the shorelines toward
cattaraugus and wayne cayuga counties in an NW flow with weak
upstream connections but with a cap of only around 2000'. Some
areas south of lake ontario may briefly be under wind chill
criteria, but as winds drop off quickly this evening, only cold
subzero temperatures will remain. Will possibly drop the
warnings and advisories south of lake ontario when they expire
at 7pm. Skies will be variable, with some clear skies at times
but also with occasional cloud cover from a thin deck of lake
effect upslope clouds.

East of lake ontario... Will extend the eastern lake ontario due
to slower decrease in wind speeds together with most area
temperatures remaining below zero into this evening. Low temps
there should bottom out into the -20 to -30f range. With
clearing skies, fresh snowpack, and eventual light winds as
high pressure moves overhead, temperatures in this region often
are much lower than guidance.

Tuesday... A tea kettle band may linger near the ontario
shoreline early Tuesday. This should move north into the lake
during the morning. Otherwise the region will be directly under
surface high pressure with mostly clear skies during the
morning, with higher clouds moving in from the SW during the
day. After an initially subzero morning, temperatures should
rise fairly quickly under warm air advection, with daytime highs
reaching near mostly into the 20s.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
Tuesday night surface low pressure in the base of a mid level trough
will advance from the midwest to the central great lakes. A strong
llj will develop ahead of this low pressure, and this jet will aid
in rising temperatures through the night and bringing above freezing
temperatures to the region late Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

Precipitation wise, an initial broken area of light snow is possible
late Tuesday night on the leading edge of the llj. The precipitation
is then expected to become more widespread towards daybreak across
far wny and the saint lawrence valley as moisture deepens and the
surface low draws closer to our region. This precipitation will then
spread over the genesee valley and finger lakes region Wednesday.

This LLJ will bulge a layer of much warmer air aloft across wny (850
hpa +2 to +5c) while surface temperatures around freezing lag
behind. A wintry mix is expected, with snow transitioning to
sleet freezing rain as we warm aloft, and then plain rain briefly
spreading across wny as surface temperatures warm into the upper 30s
to lower 40s. Cooler air to the north may linger the precipitation
as all snow across the north country. Here there is potential for 2
to 4 inches of snow accumulation by Wednesday evening.

There is still uncertainty as to how fast and how much we warm
aloft... But for now will mention the risk of freezing rain in the
hwo for wny. Of note, the recent extreme cold spell and prospects of
untreated roads may elevate the freezing rain potential... With
freezing rain on frozen ground surfaces that will lag behind in
warming.

By Wednesday night the surface low cutting to the north of lake
ontario will push a cold front across our region, changing the plain
rain back to all snow. This front will slowly move across our region
as a wave of low pressure will likely form on the front in the
south. As this wave rides northward, precipitation associated with
it may brush by our eastern zones.

Snow accumulation behind the front will be little to none for the
lower terrain, however higher terrain to the east of both lakes may
receive a few inches owing to lake enhancement and upslope
effects.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
The pattern will turn much more wintry again for the end of the week
and next weekend after our brief warm-up on Wednesday. The +pna
pattern will re-amplify significantly by next weekend across the
north american continent, with a deep trough carving out in the
east. This will push temperatures to well below average again. This
cold pattern will have staying power, with long range outlooks and
ensembles suggesting it lasting through the end of the month and
beyond.

Looking at the details, on Thursday a complex frontal zone will
advance to the east coast. A wave of low pressure will be running
northeast along the boundary, and associated ascent from this wave
and the approaching mid level shortwave will likely allow
precipitation to linger on the cold side of the boundary. By
Thursday morning all areas should be back to snow, with some minor
accumulations possible. The synoptic snow will taper off from west
to east through the day, with some minor lake effect snow showers
possible later Thursday afternoon and Thursday night southeast of
the lakes as colder air aloft arrives. High temperatures Thursday
will be in the lower 30s in most locations, and lows Thursday night
will be in the upper teens to lower 20s.

Late Thursday night and Friday a strong mid level trough and
associated surface low cold front will cross the region, marking the
leading edge of the return to much colder temperatures. This system
will bring a chance of snow showers areawide, with potential for
lake enhancement east of the lakes.

The cold becomes well established by the weekend. Model guidance
begins to diverge with the handling of clipper shortwaves moving
through the mean longwave trough, but in a general sense one or two
weak systems will continue to support light snow chances through the
weekend. There may also be lake effect potential next weekend,
although given the model differences with the handling of the
clipper systems there is a good deal of uncertainty with respect to
placement and strength.

High temperatures by the weekend will be back into the teens in most
locations, with lows in the single digits, and below zero east of
lake ontario.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
Surface high pressure will move toward the region while low
topped lake effect wanes SE of the lakes. Some MVFR conditions
early on should end up withVFR conditions nearly everywhere
this evening and continue into Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday night and Wednesday... MVFR ifr in snow changing to
mainly rain.

Thursday...VFR to MVFR with scattered snow showers.

Friday and Saturday...VFR to MVFR in scattered to numerous snow
showers... With ifr possible in more numerous snow showers east
of the lakes.

Marine
Surface high pressure will slowly move into the region overnight
with decreasing winds overnight. Light winds will then
gradually freshen over the lakes during Tuesday, as the large
surface high will move east into new england.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Wind chill warning until 7 pm est this evening for nyz012>014-
019>021-085.

Wind chill warning until 8 am est Tuesday for nyz006>008.

Winter weather advisory until 5 pm est this afternoon for
nyz001>006.

Wind chill advisory until 7 pm est this evening for nyz001>005-
010-011.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for loz030.

Heavy freezing spray warning until 6 pm est this evening
for loz042>045-062>065.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Tuesday for loz042>044.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for
loz045.

Synopsis... Apffel zaff
near term... Zaff
short term... Thomas
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Zaff
marine... Zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 22 mi31 min 7°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi109 min NW 20 G 25 6°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 37 mi49 min Calm G 0 8°F 1031.5 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY21 mi55 minWNW 154.00 miLight Snow Blowing Snow5°F-2°F72%1029.7 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10NW15
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NW12NW12NW10NW12NW12NW10NW10NW10NW10NW11NW12NW13
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1 day agoE14NE15NE14
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N14N14N13N12N9N10NW14NW10NW13
2 days agoW14
G20
W12W13W9W7W8NW12NW9W3W5W5W4W6NE16NE13E11E10E10E12E9E10E10E11E11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.