Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:37PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 9:31 AM EDT (13:31 UTC) Moonrise 11:20PMMoonset 7:47AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 713 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2019
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east 15 to 20 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers Friday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ042 Expires:201905220315;;246011 FZUS51 KBUF 212313 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 713 PM EDT Tue May 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-220315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, NY
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location: 43.22, -78.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 221046
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
646 am edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure over the region this morning will drift to our east
through the day, while allowing for clouds to increase from the
west. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight, with a
greater coverage area and intensity of storms Thursday as a warm
front pushes through the lower lakes. A cold front will cross the
region Thursday night, lowering humidity and bringing a brief period
of dry weather.

Near term through tonight
This morning an area of surface high pressure is located over
our region and drifting towards new england. Meanwhile surface
low pressure over eastern nebraska and under a closed low aloft
is drifting northeastward towards the western great lakes while
slowly weakening.

Ir satellite imagery continues to display passing cirrus across the
region, with thicker cirrus and mid level clouds back across the
central great lakes and towards indiana.

High pressure will maintain fair weather across our region today
with clouds beginning to thicken from the west as cirrus increases.

Behind the surface high today, our afternoon temperatures will be a
few degrees warmer than yesterday with temperatures near normal.

Tonight the surface low to our west will push a warm front across
the ohio valley and towards our western zones by Thursday morning.

An initial surge of moisture ahead of the warm front, combined with
mucape values of 300-600 j kg will produce a few showers and perhaps
thunderstorms. This mainly evening activity will dive across wny,
and possibly clip areas east of lake ontario. Given the moderate
moisture fields and a weak LLJ of around 35-40 knots... Will only
place low end likely pops in the grids... And even these may be too
high.

During the mid-overnight hours there will be a short break after
this initial wave of precipitation passes across our region. As the
warm front inches across our region late tonight, upstream
convection within an increasing unstable environment may drift into
our far western zones.

Temperatures tonight will bottom out around midnight across wny
before beginning to increase as the warm front and strengthening
southerly flow arrives. East of lake ontario and to the north of the
warm front... A traditional temperature trend is likely.

Short term Thursday through Saturday night
Another active weather day could be in store for Thursday. Upper air
pattern starts out on Thursday with shortwave trough lifting along
edge of ridge across upper great lakes and northern ontario while
ridging remains over southeast CONUS to new england. Shortwave
trough digs across northeast CONUS with height falls up to 100dam
forecast across much of ny through Thursday afternoon. At the sfc,
low pressure over the upper great lakes will send a warm front into
our region as early as daybreak Thursday with a cold front quickly
following later Thursday afternoon as the sfc low tracks to southern
quebec.

Convection in the warm sector, especially with pre-frontal trough
present and multiple convectively generated shortwaves can be
difficult to pin down. Looks like there could be leading cluster of
showers and tsra around as early as Thursday morning especially over
the southern tier as west-southwest low-level jet up to 40 kts and
theta-e advection occur along the advancing warm front. MUCAPE with
parcels rooted around 850mb easily pushes past 1000 j kg with h7-h5
lapse rates pushing 7c km. Effective shear remains weak at this
time, less than 20kt, so think risk of organized severe would be low
through mid morning. However, as convectively induced shortwave
emerges into wny by late morning, chances for convection ramp up
significantly into the afternoon. By early aftn, sbcapes rise to
1500-2000j kg as temps and dewpoints rise to near 80f 65f. Effective
deep layer shear by early Thursday afternoon increases to 50+ kts,
so organized strong to severe convection is likely. With wsw sfc
winds present across the area, stabilization off lake erie may
result in greater coverage to showers and thunderstorms (especially
the better chance of strong to severe thunderstorms) staying more
across the southern tier and on toward the western finger lakes
region. As occurred Sunday, will see showers tsra expand toward
southeast of lake ontario, though still looks like greatest coverage
will stay south of that area as veering sfc-h85 flow shunts greatest
instability more to the south.

Given deep layer shear of 50 kts, sbcapes up to 2000 j kg and strong
0-3km shear helicity, all forms of severe weather could occur, even
a small risk of a tornado as LCL heights are very low. SPC has
highlighted all of our area within slight risk while enhanced risk
is just to our south. Given how these parameters are looking, that
looks very reasonable. Convection will end from west to east by
early evening as the cold front and leading shortwave quickly drop
across the region.

Cold front makes its way across our forecast area early Thursday
evening. By this time though, the bulk of the main convection ahead
of the front will be east of the region. Still may be a few showers
and storms around until midnight or so, especially toward finger
lakes and east of lake ontario. The rapidly ending convection will
give way to partial clearing and more comfortable conditions as we
replace the mid 60s dewpoints with readings toward 50f by late
Thursday night.

Mid-level ridge and sfc ridge builds over the great lakes for Friday
leading to dry weather. Could be some stratocu around, but don't
think it will be as widespread as what we saw on Monday. Highs will
cool back into the 60s with a possible 70f reading toward the finger
lakes. Ridging both aloft and at sfc slides by on Friday night as
next shortwave lifts across the recently very soggy upper great
lakes region. Main sfc low tracks well to the northwest of here, but
warm air and moisture advection ahead of low-level jet should
support increasing showers and thunderstorms late Friday night and
more so on Saturday. Deep layer shear is back above 40 kts on
Saturday, but mlcapes only up to 1000j kg suggest scattered
thunderstroms with not as much chance of organized severe. Likely
pops still seem good with this system though. Highs will reach into
the 70s across the board.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
Large scale pattern will feature a rex block over the western u.S.

With generally zonal flow across the eastern 2 3rds of the country
to start this period. While weak surface ridging will likely reside
across the lower lakes Sunday with dry conditions, shortwave energy
originating from the elongated mid-level low over the hudson bay
will begin to drop southeast towards the region. This feature will
send a cold front towards and across the lower lakes on Monday,
memorial day, which will likely lead to increasing chances for
showers. Does look like there will be many rain free hours though.

With the passage of the cold front transitory ridging will slide
across the eastern great lakes Monday night. Appears at least for
now that we may be able to sneak in a dry day Tuesday as models are
now favoring high pressure ridge holding over the area. We'll see if
this trend holds up. Next chance for more widespread showers moves
back in by middle of next week.

Temperatures will average at to a little above normal with highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s for much of the region.

Aviation 10z Wednesday through Sunday
For the 12z tafs surface high pressure over the region will
advance towards new england through the course of the day. This
feature will continueVFR flight conditions into tonight.

A warm front will push across wny late tonight, with a llj
strengthening behind it. This LLJ will bring low end llws to the
western TAF sites, while also bringing moisture convergence that may
yield some showers and or thunderstorms across wny. For now will
carry a vcsh in the tafs to account for this precipitation
potential.

Winds ahead of the warm front will be light from the east, while
behind the warm front winds will veer to southerly and begin to
increase late tonight.

Later tonight a batch of showers and diminishing thunder
potential will drift to our southeast. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms will again be possible across far western areas
towards dawn Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR MVFR with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms... A few of which could produce gusty winds.

Friday...VFR.

Saturday...VFR MVFR with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms.

Sunday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers.

Marine
High pressure over lake ontario this early morning will drift
towards new england today. Light winds will prevail on the lakes,
with a light easterly flow today becoming southerly late tonight and
tomorrow as a warm front nudges across the lower great lakes.

Thursday southwesterly winds will increase within the warm sector of
a storm system, with winds likely to reach small craft criteria on
lake erie, and possibly the western half of lake ontario.

A cold front will cross the eastern great lakes Thursday night and
westerly winds behind the feature will continue possible SCA on
portions of both lakes.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Thomas
short term... Jla rsh
long term... Ar jla
aviation... Thomas
marine... Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 22 mi50 min 53°F 1024.6 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi32 min ENE 6 G 7 54°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 37 mi32 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 51°F 1025.7 hPa (+1.0)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 44 mi42 min SSW 5.8 G 5.8 41°F 37°F1026.7 hPa38°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY21 mi38 minE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F43°F62%1025.9 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW17
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2 days agoSW6S9SW12NE8E6S7CalmSE8S6S5S3W16
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W10W8S8SW9SW7SW8SW6SW8SW7W12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.