Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:37PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 3:09 PM EDT (19:09 UTC) Moonrise 7:08AMMoonset 8:37PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 700 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Today..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Friday..East winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain showers during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 39 degrees.
LOZ042 Expires:201703291515;;256970 FZUS51 KBUF 291100 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 700 AM EDT WED MAR 29 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LOZ042-043-291515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, NY
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location: 43.22, -78.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 291720
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
120 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
High pressure north of the region will move east tonight while a
low pressure system over the mississippi valley draws moisture
northward toward the new york on Thursday. Chances for rain
will increase over far western new york Thursday afternoon, with
precipitation spreading across all of western and central new
york Thursday night. This complex system may bring some thunder
to far western new york while a brief period of snow will be
possible east of lake ontario. The system will change to all
rain by Friday and move east of the region for the weekend.

Near term /through Thursday/
High pressure to the north of the state is providing the area
with northerly flow. A thin layer of moisture has morphed from
stratus along and north of lake ontario to clearing while inland
areas have experienced a flat cumulus field. Expect this to
dissipate later this afternoon with clearing over much of the
region by sunset.

Tonight... High pressure settles across the region with mostly
clear skies and light winds resulting in decent radiational
cooling conditions. Low temperatures will drop below freezing
for most locations, with the coldest readings in the mid 20s in
the north country.

Friday... Increasing clouds from west to east will be the main
feature for much of the day as moisture streams northeastward
in a warm advective pattern. However, models continue to
struggle with the depth of the moisture with the operational nam
and GFS differing toward the onset of precipitation. Ensemble
data of course is somewhere in between. There will be a
tightening baroclinic boundary moving in and this will help
moisten up the atmosphere, but at this time cannot fine tune the
rain start time in terms of rain starting in the early
afternoon, late afternoon, or early evening for at least western
ny. Will therefore continue with a increasing probability of
rain with time, starting out as sprinkles due to the initial dry
air near the surface.

Short term /Thursday night through Friday night/
Increasing isentropic ascent and strong northward moisture transport
Thursday night will overcome in-place dry air across the area from
southwest to northeast. Thus, a steady increase in precipitation
with the steadiest/most widespread precipitation arriving during the
late evening/overnight hours and continuing through at least Friday
morning. Model soundings do not suggest steep enough lapse rates
aloft, so without significant elevated cape, will continue to keep
the mention of thunder out of the forecast.

For the most part precipitation type should not be an issue, with
most expected to fall as rain as a lack of true cold air helping to
sufficiently warm boundary layer temperatures. However, the
expectation could be across the north country as marginal thermal
profiles could allow for a brief period of mixed precipitation late
Thursday night/early Friday morning.

The complex system responsible for the all of the unsettled weather
will push to our east by Friday night. While the bulk of the
associated lift and mid level moisture will be removed, there will
still be the chance for some leftover showers, especially along and
east of the axis of the surface trough, which will be aligned over
the genesee valley for the first half of the night. Some of the
lingering precipitation could change to a wintry mix late.

Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/
There is high confidence that this will be a relatively mild
period... As a progressive ridge will make its way across the eastern
half of the country. This ridge will also keep the bulk of the
period rainfree. The tranquil weather will come to an end though by
Monday night and Tuesday... As the next southern stream system will
lift northeast out of the lower mississippi valley. The details...

a storm system exiting off the east coast will support some leftover
nuisance showers across the region Saturday morning. In its wake...

expansive high pressure centered over hudson bay will build south
across the lower great lakes Saturday afternoon through Monday. This
will promote fair dry weather. While high temperatures will
generally be in the 40s on Saturday... The mercury will climb into
the 50s for Sunday and Monday.

Monday night and Tuesday... Low pressure over the lower mississippi
valley is forecast to push north towards the lower great lakes. Most
of the ensemble members of the GEFS along with the operational
ecmwf track the broad low to our west within a negatively tilted
trough... Which will once again set up a scenario where we experience
another round of rain.

Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/
Vfr conditions are expected through Thursday. High pressure
will be north of lake ontario with light northerly flow today.

There is a stratus deck over lake ontario and eastern lake
ontario, but CIGS are near 5000'. This will not make much
progress to the south today, and it should start to mix out in
the dry airmass later this afternoon. Winds will shift to the
east overnight and Thursday. Eventually higher clouds will move
into the region, with slowly lowering CIGS during Thursday
afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday night into Saturday... MVFR/ifr with rain showers.

Sunday and Monday...VFR.

Marine
Winds will turn easterly by Thursday and southeasterly Friday
as our next storm system passes south of the great lakes. Winds
will approach 15-20 knots but higher waves should remain in
canadian waters. Winds should be out of the northwest following
the passage of the low for the weekend.

Buf watches/warnings/advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Zaff
near term... Zaff
short term... Tma
long term... Rsh
aviation... Zaff
marine... Zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 22 mi57 min 38°F 1025.6 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi69 min N 6 G 8 38°F 1026.4 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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G11
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY21 mi75 minNE 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy47°F26°F44%1025.6 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE10E3N3CalmCalmCalmE6E5CalmCalmNW3CalmNW3CalmNE4CalmNE6NE8NE7N6NE8NE10NE8
1 day agoW19
G24
W15
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W12SW5W5SW3SW10SW8SW5SW4SW4SW3SW3SW3CalmW3NW3NW7N5N9N9N10N8N7
2 days agoS13S11S17
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S9S12S10S12S10S10SW7SW9SW10
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SW13SW11SW12SW10SW9SW11W18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.