Wednesday, November22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:44PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 3:22 PM EST (20:22 UTC) Moonrise 10:32AMMoonset 8:12PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 1223 Pm Est Wed Nov 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
This afternoon..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely Friday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. Rain showers likely during the day, then snow and rain showers likely Saturday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Snow likely during the day, then scattered snow showers Sunday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
LOZ042 Expires:201711222215;;802616 FZUS51 KBUF 221723 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1223 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-222215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, NY
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location: 43.22, -78.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 221927
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
227 pm est Wed nov 22 2017

Synopsis
A large area of surface high pressure will move from the midwest
eastward toward the mid atlantic states during thanksgiving. While
there may be some scattered rain and snow showers around east and
northeast lake erie and lake ontario, most of the holiday should be
dry across western and central new york. Dry weather will last
through Friday. A weak cold front will move across the region on
Saturday with some lake effect snow east and southeast of the lakes
on Sunday.

Near term through Thursday
A low amplitude upper level longwave trough will be over the eastern
us through thanksgiving. While this will ensure temperatures aloft
will be low enough for some lake effect, a broad area of surface high
pressure will be moving from the central us toward the mid atlantic.

The corresponding dryish airmass should keep lake effect processes
from doing much more than sputter at times. The best chance for some
semblance of a lake band will be late thanksgiving morning into the
the evening as the flow becomes wsw over both lakes (and maximizing
fetch), with a resulting potential plume of flurries or light snow
showers moving N with time.

For erie, this would start a plume over the boston hills or perhaps
a little south during the morning, moving northward across the
buffalo metro area and into the northtowns by the evening. For
ontario, a band could form on a wnw flow over wayne and then move
northward across the eastern lake ontario during the day and toward
or into the entrance to the st lawrence river by days end.

But, in both cases, dry air aloft will severely limit potential. In
fact, the atmospheric profile in the worst case (but realistic from
current conditions) would barely get the airmass moist enough for
efficient dendrite growth. In short, this means the potential for
weather related impacts during the holiday remain low, with mostly
passing flurries or non-accumulating snow showers east of the lower
great lakes region, possibly even just non-consequential rain
showers, with dry weather outside of lake effect regions.

Short term Thursday night through Sunday
As the passing mid-level trough pushes a weak cold front to just
north of lake ontario Thursday evening, the steering flow over the
lakes will veer from southwest to west. This will initially allow
for some enhancement across the long fetch of lake ontario so that
an inch or so of accumulation could be found in the vcnty of the tug
hill. Keep in mind though that with a low cap of about 5k ft and a
shrinking dendritic growth zone, snowfall rates should not be an
issue. Even less impressive lake snow showers will be found east of
lake erie where the onset of warm advection will bring a complete
end to the lake response. Otherwise, the majority of the forecast
area will experience fair weather with seasonable temperatures.

On Friday, a flat shortwave ridge will push across the lower great
lakes, while the large surface high will make its way off the mid
atlantic coast. A deepening southerly flow will then become
established between the high to our east and an approaching pacific
based cold front over the plains. The ensuing warm advection will
boost h85 temps into the upper single digits c over the western
counties, and this will allow our MAX temps to climb well into the
40s (nr 50 gen valley) while we return to at least partial sunshine.

A deep storm system in the vcnty of james bay will push the first of
two cold fronts to our doorstep by daybreak Saturday. While the
majority of Friday night will be rain free, there could be some
showers over the far western counties as we work our way through the
wee hours of Saturday morning. Since the southerly flow ahead of the
front will not allow temperatures to drop to critical winter
levels, the precipitation will be in the form of rain showers.

The pacific front will cross our forecast area Saturday morning.

While some morning rain showers will likely accompany the passage of
this fast moving front, the midday and early afternoon could be pcpn
free. As we progress deeper into the afternoon, a digging longwave
trough over the upper great lakes and continued cold advection over
our region will increase the potential for some mixed rain and snow
showers.

A longwave trough pushing from eastern ontario to quebec will be the
driving force for a second cold frontal passage Saturday night. This
will be a stronger frontal passage, one that will usher h85 temps
as low as -12c across lake ontario and the eastern lake ontario
region. While this is not as cold as earlier forecast, it is
certainly cold enough to establish accumulating lake snows southeast
of both lakes. The frontal passage itself should generate a coating
an inch of accumulation across the forecast area, with several
inches looking more plausible for the chautauqua ridge and from
wayne county east across the southern half of oswego county through
Sunday morning. Given that h85 temps are forecast to be in the vcnty
of -12c and that there should be some added lift from the northerly
upslope flow, fairly steady snow should be found southeast of both
lakes, including along the bulk of the new york state thruway. While
accumulations are not expected to be significant in themselves, it
could be cold enough for the snow to be a little more greasy so that
untreated roadways would be more difficult to navigate.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
Sunday night and Monday, a broad ridge over the mid west and upper
great lakes will push across the lower great lakes. The ensuing warm
advection and subsequent lowering subsidence inversion will bring an
end to the accumulating, problematic lake snows southeast of both
lakes, while fair weather will be found elsewhere. This will be
start of the aforementioned warm up. Temperatures that will struggle
to the freezing mark on Sunday will climb to near 40 over the
western counties (mid 30s north country) on Monday.

The broad mid level ridge is then forecast to amplify over the
eastern third of the country on Tuesday. This will pump h85 temps to
near 10c, which would easily support afternoon highs in the 50s for
the majority of western new york.

Aviation 20z Wednesday through Monday
Vfr and some MVFR CIGS (higher terrain) will will last through the
night as low level moisture remains trapped under an 850mb level
inversion. Expect a little improvement overnight with less low cloud
cover with time, although some higher level clouds will move into
toward thanksgiving morning. Some lake effect plumes are expected
to form off both lakes during the day and migrate northward.

However, these bands will be rather weak with minimal precipitation
(rain and or snow) reaching the ground as they move past kbuf iag
and kart during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday night... Chance -shsn MVFR E of the lakes, otherwiseVFR.

Friday...VFR.

Saturday...VFR MVFR with rain showers likely.

Sunday... Mainly MVFR, localized ifr in -shsn SE of the lakes.

Monday...VFR.

Marine
Wnw flow will continue into tonight and weaken with time, then back
to wsw on thanksgiving. Scas may be needed again by afternoon
together with scattered but light lake effect showers. Relatively
quiet weather will then last through Friday with wsw or SW flow. The
next cold front moves through on Saturday with lake effect
developing on a NW flow by Sunday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for lez040-
041.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for
loz042>045.

Synopsis... Zaff
near term... Zaff
short term... Church rsh
long term... Rsh
aviation... Zaff
marine... Zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 22 mi52 min 33°F 1020.7 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi82 min WNW 20 G 25 34°F 1021 hPa (+1.0)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 37 mi82 min W 15 G 21 33°F 1021.7 hPa (-0.3)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 44 mi92 min WNW 19 G 23 35°F 47°F5 ft1019.1 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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W21
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G38
SW25
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SW31
SW23
G28
SW27
G35

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY21 mi28 minNW 1110.00 miOvercast32°F23°F69%1021.1 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW13SW7NW5CalmNW6SW4SW5W5NW7NW10NW9NW11
G18
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1 day agoW16
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SW6S7SW8SW9SW12SW8SW11
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2 days agoNW8
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W10W9W9NW9NW15
G24
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W11W10W6W13
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W16
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W11W14W16
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W12SW9W9SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.