Monday, April23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 8:06PM Monday April 23, 2018 7:06 PM EDT (23:06 UTC) Moonrise 12:06PMMoonset 1:59AM Illumination 62% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 431 Pm Edt Mon Apr 23 2018
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less. Rain likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Rain. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Occasional rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming south and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers Friday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LOZ042 Expires:201804240300;;394916 FZUS51 KBUF 232034 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 431 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-240300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, NY
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location: 43.22, -78.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 231904
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
304 pm edt Mon apr 23 2018

Synopsis
Our stretch of delightful weather will come to an end Tuesday
through Wednesday... As a stalled storm system over the mississippi
valley will grudgingly push by to our south. Rain from the slow
moving system is forecast to average around an inch through
Wednesday night. The rain will taper off and end as showers Thursday
and Thursday night as high pressure will nose in from the ohio
valley.

Near term through Tuesday
The salubrious weather from today will gradually deteriorate from
west to east later tonight and Tuesday... As the protective ridge
that has been in place will push across new england and move out to
sea. This will open the door for atlantic moisture to stream into
the region within a deepening southeasterly flow found between the
exiting fair weather system and a stacked storm system over the
mississippi valley. As a result... A perfect viewing of a waxing
gibbous moon this evening will give way to lowering and thickening
cirrus as we push through the overnight. For sites west of the
finger lakes... This will include a fair amount of alto-cu by
daybreak. Mins tonight will generally be in the upper 30s to mid
40s... A difference of as much as 15 degrees (north country) from
Monday night.

On Tuesday... Atlantic moisture will continue to deepen across our
forecast area as the lumbering stacked storm system will make its
way to the east across the tennessee valley. While the day is
expected to be rain free for sites east of wayne county... The
thickening cloud cover in the west will be lifted by a pair
processes. Initially... The forcing will be supplied by a diffluent
upper level flow. As we work our way through the day... The bulk of
the lift will come as a result of significantly falling hgts and a
weakly coupled h25 jet. Any way you slice it... Scattered showers
over the southern tier by mid morning will expand to the northeast
and become a steady rain during the course of the afternoon. Pops
have been raised for all of the western counties to likely-
categorical while timing as been moved up by several hours.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday night
Cutoff low will still be over the tennessee valley as we start
Tuesday night, while a northern stream shortwave digs across the
northern great lakes. This shortwave will interact with the closed
low as it moves into the ohio valley and gets absorbed within the
northern stream westerlies. This interaction will increase rain
chances across all of western and north central new york Tuesday
night and then into Wednesday, as a surface cold front associated
with the shortwave approaches from the northwest.

Widespread rainfall is likely to continue into Wednesday night
as the northern stream wave pushes across the region and the
associated surface wave lifts northward across the region.

Precipitable water values forecast to increase to nearly 2
standard deviations above normal, which would suggest the
potential for heavy downpours at times and some ponding of water
on roadways throughout the day Wednesday. The cloudy and wet
conditions will limit high temperatures Wednesday to the 50s.

Both the upper wave and the surface low start to lift out of the
region during Thursday, bringing an end to the steadier rains
from west to east during the morning. Precipitation may still
lingering through Thursday afternoon across the north country
area if the closed low lifts out slower than forecast.

A shortwave ridge looks to eventually move over the area on
Thursday night bringing a brief break in precipitation before
the next wave diving out of canada brings another round of
precipitation to close out the work week or early in the
weekend.

Long term Friday through Monday
The shortwave ridge looks to remain in place for Friday
continuing dry weather through at least the first half of
Friday. Upper trough dropping through the great lakes will bring
a cold front through the region during the late Friday or early
Saturday period, bringing another round of rain showers, but
fair amount of model disagreement keeps predictability on
details low. Behind this system, the eventual building of a
ridge into the region is on horizon. How fast this happens is in
question, but could be looking at sharply warmer temperatures
by early next week.

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
Beautiful conditions for flying will be in place through this
evening... As exiting high pressure over new england will maintain
clear skies and light winds.

WhileVFR conditions will remain over the region through the
remainder of the night... An increase in mid and high level moisture
will result in thickening and lowering cirrus. This will also include
an alto-cu cig over the far western counties by daybreak.

On Tuesday... The thickening cloud cover west of the finger lakes
will be accompanied by scattered showers that will transition into
fairly widespread rain by late afternoon. CIGS with the burgeoning
precipitation should remain atVFR levels... Except across the
southern tier where MVFR CIGS should be expected after about 21z.

Meanwhile for the eastern lake ontario region... The day should be
rainfree withVFR conditions.

Outlook...

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Areas of MVFR ifr with occasional
rain.

Thursday... MVFR improving toVFR with scattered showers.

Friday...VFR.

Saturday...VFR to MVFR in scattered showers.

Marine
High pressure will drift slowly east off the southern new england
coast through tonight. This will continue to provide light winds in
most areas today, although easterly winds will increase locally at
the west end of lake ontario this afternoon with choppy conditions
west of rochester. Otherwise fairly light winds will continue
tonight through the middle of the week as weak low pressure moves
from the ohio valley to southern new england.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rsh
near term... Rsh
short term... Tma
long term... Tma
aviation... Rsh
marine... Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 22 mi49 min 43°F 1024.4 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi67 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 48°F 1025.7 hPa (-2.4)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 37 mi67 min Calm G 1 44°F 1023.7 hPa (-3.1)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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G8
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY21 mi73 minNNE 1110.00 miA Few Clouds64°F27°F25%1024.5 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSW4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalm45SE6--5NE15N12NE11N8
1 day agoNW8NW4W5W7W5W5SW5W4SW5W4SW5SW5SW6SW63W5CalmN4N9
G15
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NE7N6NE8NE8
2 days agoNW7NW6NW8W7W5W6W8W5W4SW4SW4SW5W8W7W6NW96W10W11
G17
N11NW11
G18
N13N9N12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.