Saturday, February17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 5:48PM Saturday February 17, 2018 10:00 PM EST (03:00 UTC) Moonrise 8:11AMMoonset 7:42PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 331 Pm Est Sat Feb 17 2018
Tonight..South winds 10 knots or less becoming west and increasing to 15 to 20 knots this evening. A chance of light snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Rain. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Rain during the day, then rain and snow showers likely Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LOZ042 Expires:201802180400;;123973 FZUS51 KBUF 172050 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 331 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-180400-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, NY
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location: 43.22, -78.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 180003
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
703 pm est Sat feb 17 2018

Synopsis
A pair of weak systems will split our region tonight while
generating some nuisance light snow. Fair weather will return
on Sunday as high pressure will pass to our south... Then a
dramatic warm up will being for the first half of the work week
when temperatures will soar well into the 60s and possibly to
70. This will be the warmest weather since last october.

Near term through Sunday
Conditions will quickly deteriorate tonight as a pair of weak
systems will split our region. A shortwave will advance across the
lower great lakes tonight while driving a surface trough through our
forecast area. The actual frontal boundary will never really make it
through our region though... As it will stall out across lake ontario
before being lifting back north on Sunday. To our south though... A
wave will track along a frontal boundary that will be found over
virginia.

Isentropic lift on the north side of the passing system will combine
with the forcing from being under the left front exit region of a
cyclonically curved 110kt h25 jet to produce deep lift through a 5-
8k ft thick dendritic growth zone. This lift will be greatest
between 00-06z. This should result in very efficient snow making
over a narrow 3-6 hour window... So have raised pops over the entire
region... Particularly south and east of a line from jamestown to
canandaigua to the tug hill. Snowfall totals have been bumped as
well... With nighttime accumulations now forecast to range from an
inch or less in the more populated areas near the lakes to an
average of 2 inches across the southern tier... Portions of the
finger lakes region and the tug hill plateau.

As the sfc wave and overlying jet dynamics push east from
pennsylvania after 06z... The snow will quickly taper off across the
region. By daybreak... The synoptic supported snow should be largely
done with more locally driven snow showers east of both lakes.

The lake snow Sunday morning will be focused on oswego county and
the southern slopes of the tug hill... Although with a cap under 5k
ft... Am not impressed for anything more than nuisance snow showers
with morning accumulations under an inch. East of lake erie... Any
leftover snow showers or flurries will be largely supported by
orographics. No accumulations are forecast for this particular area.

Otherwise... A large area of high pressure passing to our south will
provide fair weather across the region.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday night
Surface high pressure will shift off the east coast south of new
england Sunday night. Expect this high to continue to influence our
region with mainly clear skies and southerly winds promoting a non-
diurnal temp trend. Low temperatures will occur during the evening
with readings near freezing in wny and mid 20s east of lake ontario,
then warming above freezing across wny by daybreak Monday and
pushing to near freezing east of lake ontario. Consensus of 12z
guidance holds off any precipitation from entering ny until after
12z Monday.

A warm and wet period is then expected Monday into Wednesday. Low
pressure will cross the central plains Sunday night then push to
michigan by Tuesday. Warm air advection supported by a 50+ kt low
level jet ahead of this low will draw anomalously moist air tied to
the gulf of mexico north over new york with widespread rainfall
expected across western and north-central ny by Monday afternoon.

Highs Monday should reach into the 50s then hold steady or slow rise
higher Monday night. A +3 +4 standardized anomaly is associated with
pwats in excess of one inch. This is near or above the daily max
moving average. The surface warm front will be lagging behind the
rain not forecast to reach ny until closer to 12z Tuesday.

The latest models indicate the warm front should shift the
widespread rainfall north Tuesday, likely north of much of the
forecast area by Tuesday afternoon and evening. This should allow
for a period of dry time and very warm temperatures. Highs Tuesday
afternoon will likely jump into the upper 60s to low 70s across most
locations. Coolest readings will remain northeast of the lakes with
a stiff southwest wind in place, which may keep temperatures along
the immediate lake shore in the 50s. Both daily record high
temperatures and record warm low temperatures are likely to be
broken during this stretch.

Concern arises across the north country where snow pack still
exists. The combination of snow melt and rainfall may cause flooding
issues on area creeks and rivers including the black river. This
will continue to be highlighted in the hwo.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Medium range model consensus shows the surface low will shift
northeast across quebec through Wednesday. This should drag an
associated cold front across western and north-central Wednesday or
Wednesday night. Widespread rain should again shifting east across
our region with likely mixing with and changing to some snow
showers.

Strong dry high pressure should then build over the great lakes
Thursday Thursday night. There is a low chance of some rain and
snow showers on Thursday depending on the speed of the front but
mainly dry weather should be expected. Model consensus then shows
another warm front or surface low crossing our region Friday night
into Saturday likely leading some rain and or snow showers Friday
night and chance or rain showers Saturday.

Temperatures Wednesday will be highly dependent on the timing of the
cold front but should likely remain above normal. Temperatures will
fall back toward normal Thursday through Saturday but likely
remaining 5-10 degrees above mid-late feb normals.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
Tonight, a weak low passing by to our south will help to generate
some light snow while CIGS will lower to MVFR levels. Vsbys across
the southern tier and portions of the finger lakes region could also
briefly lower to ifr levels.

On Sunday... Conditions will quickly improve toVFR. The exception
will be in the vicinity of the tug hill where MVFR CIGS vsbys will
accompany some weak lake effect activity.

Outlook...

Monday... Deteriorating to MVFR to ifr in rain.

Monday night and Tuesday... GenerallyVFR to MVFR in showers but ifr
across the north country in more widespread rain.

Wednesday... MVFR in moderately heavy showers.

Thursday...VFR.

Marine
While generally light winds will be in place across the lower great
lakes through this evening... They will freshen in the wake of a
passing trough later tonight. The higher winds and waves on portions
of lake ontario will reach small craft advisory criteria after
daybreak... So have raised a small craft advisory from hamlin beach
to mexico bay for the bulk of Sunday.

Winds and waves will subside Sunday night and Monday... As the next
area of high pressure will pass to the south.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 am to 4 pm est Sunday for loz043-
044.

Small craft advisory from 4 am to 1 pm est Sunday for
loz042.

Synopsis... Church rsh
near term... Church rsh
short term... Church smith
long term... Smith
aviation... Church rsh
marine... Church rsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 22 mi42 min 30°F 1016.2 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi60 min SSW 2.9 G 2.9 31°F 1017.3 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY21 mi66 minN 07.00 miLight Snow31°F19°F61%1017 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9W6W6W5W4SW5SW5SW3S4S5S6SW6S6S7S5SW6W3CalmW3W3CalmS3N3Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.