Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Muskegon, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 9:13PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 11:18 PM EDT (03:18 UTC) Moonrise 4:43AMMoonset 6:49PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ847 Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi- 1009 Pm Edt Wed May 24 2017
Rest of tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers until midday, then mostly Sunny in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots backing southwest, then veering west late in the day. Partly Sunny. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
LMZ847 Expires:201705250915;;160784 FZUS53 KGRR 250209 NSHGRR NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1009 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ847-250915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Muskegon, MI
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location: 43.23, -86.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 250216
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1016 pm edt Wed may 24 2017
latest update...

update

Synopsis
Issued at 330 pm edt Wed may 24 2017
an area of low pressure lifting north from the ohio valley will
bring chances for showers tonight along with a few storms this
evening. Showers remain in the forecast for Thursday, although the
trend will be towards drying out in the afternoon. Friday through
Saturday there may be a few showers around but these forecast
periods look fairly dry as well. Temperatures will be near normals
for this time of year through Saturday

Update
Issued at 1013 pm edt Wed may 24 2017
the next band of rain showers located in eastern parts of the cwa
will pivot west over the next couple of hours. It has been
weakening... But enough push there to warrant higher pops for much
of central parts of the cwa.

Short term (this evening through Friday night)
issued at 330 pm edt Wed may 24 2017
main forecast challenge in the short term is in regard to
precipitation chances and extent. Main upper trough is clearly seen
in the water vapor imagery this afternoon from the great lakes to
the gulf coast. Distinct shortwaves are seen pivoting through the
upper trough. Our main weather maker for tonight is a shortwave
centered northeast of louisville ky, moving northward toward our
area. Showers and a few thunderstorms have broken out well in
advance of this feature over southern lower michigan this afternoon.

Expecting a continued push of showers into our area tonight with any
thunderstorms ending this evening with the loss of instability.

Instability at this point has remained on the meager side with
mucape values on the order of 500-1000 j kg. A better push of
moderate rain may try to make it into southern lower michigan
tonight, but overall expecting a tapering of precipitation overnight
with the loss of heating instability.

Thursday we are still expecting some showers to affect the area with
the upper trough still nearby. Thunder chances look fairly low with
limited if any cape. Plenty of moisture remain so expecting
considerable clouds based on deep layer rh and bufkit overviews.

Precipitation should taper off for Thursday night into Friday with a
dry forecast expected much of that time. Models are hinting at a
weak low moving through the ohio valley Friday night which may
spread some light rain showers up our way. Our thinking though is
that it will likely remain dry given how far north we are from the
low.

Long term (Saturday through Wednesday)
issued at 330 pm edt Wed may 24 2017
confidence remains relatively high that Saturday will be the nicest
day of the holiday weekend with highs in the mid to upper 70s and
light winds. Subsidence NVA aloft should keep things dry with partly
to mostly sunny skies.

Actually Sunday could be pretty decent as well across SW mi due to a
stable westerly low level flow. Plus the next upper low will still
be off to our northwest. Some chilly lakeshore readings in the 60s
should occur with the onshore flow, but mid 70s still seem possible
farther inland.

Guidance has be very consistent in showing the next upper low trough
dropping down into the area on memorial day. The cold front
associated with the lead shortwave in the digging longwave trough
could trigger some tstms, and wouldn't rule out some stronger storms
for the holiday.

Then we return to the familiar pattern of below normal temps and
occasional showers Tuesday into Wednesday with the upper trough and
low level cyclonic flow in place.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 743 pm edt Wed may 24 2017
the instability has diminished considerably... Thus the tafs will
not feature any thunder tonight. An axis of showers was pivoting
westward from near klan through kjxn. These showers may have the
potential for brief ifr as the track westward this evening. Then
the models are trying to expand the ifr currently in far SE lower
mi... Northwestward with time. This makes some sense since it will
rain over the TAF sites over the next couple of hours... Leaving
cooler temps and abundant low level moisture. So what I did was to
feature some ifr before 06z for most TAF sites.

The atmosphere destabilizes mid to late afternoon on Thursday.

This could support a brief thunderstorm prior to 00z Friday.

Marine
Issued at 330 pm edt Wed may 24 2017
northerly winds are expected tonight into Thursday night on lake
michigan. Waves will build into the 2 to 4 foot range at times, but
we are expecting to remain below small craft advisory criteria for
the most part in the nearshore waters. Out on the open waters winds
will likely rise into the 15 to 25 knot range, but we will remain a
bit lower in the nearshore waters. Winds and waves tone down
considerably for Friday into Saturday with light winds expected.

Hydrology
Issued at 1259 pm edt Wed may 24 2017
rivers over the southern portion of the forecast area (south and
east of grand rapids) continue to run above normal. Southern
sites will be the main concern for any flood potential over the
next several days.

Precipitation forecasts for today have trended downward slightly.

The greatest totals are expected near lansing and jackson, where
amounts will range from 0.50-0.70 of an inch. Amounts will trend
downward further north and west.

Long term precipitation forecasts bring waves of precipitation
through late this weekend into next week. The current pattern
would suggest that amounts could vary widely from point to point
with any adjustment in timing and placement. In addition,
scattered convection could play a role in locally heavy rainfall
at times. Therefore, immediate flood concerns have decreased with
the latest trends in forecast qpf. The upcoming week may need
to be monitored with respect to sites that are experiencing higher
than normal river levels.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Mjs
synopsis... Duke
short term... Duke
long term... Meade
aviation... Mjs
hydrology... Jam
marine... Duke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 4 mi28 min ENE 8 G 9.9 63°F 1000.6 hPa54°F
45161 6 mi38 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 59°F 52°F2 ft1001.1 hPa
45029 23 mi28 min ENE 9.7 G 16 59°F 53°F3 ft1000.4 hPa52°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 32 mi48 min N 5.1 G 8 59°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 50 mi48 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 60°F 52°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI3 mi23 minNE 710.00 miOvercast63°F54°F73%1000.8 hPa
Fremont Municipal Airport, MI20 mi2.1 hrsNE 410.00 miOvercast62°F51°F69%1001.4 hPa

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3NE4NE4NE5N3NE7NE8N8NE7NE8NE8NE9NE9NE12E14NE13
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1 day agoSW13
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SW11S8S10S6S8S5S6S8S14S12SW10SW12SW10SW10S9S7S6SE3NE5NE3N5NE4
2 days agoSW13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.