Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Muskegon, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 8:43PM Friday August 18, 2017 2:54 AM EDT (06:54 UTC) Moonrise 2:19AMMoonset 5:28PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ847 Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi- 1029 Pm Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday evening...
Rest of tonight..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots backing west 10 to 20 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers until midday. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Saturday..West winds around 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ847 Expires:201708180915;;549925 FZUS53 KGRR 180229 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1029 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ847-180915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Muskegon, MI
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location: 43.23, -86.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 180538
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
138 am edt Fri aug 18 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 329 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017
showers and thunderstorms will exit to the east through late this
afternoon and early evening. Clouds and a few showers will linger
behind as cooler, drier air works into the region tonight into
early Friday. Temperatures will trend upward over the weekend.

There will be a quick shot at showers and a few storms, mainly
along south of i-96 overnight Friday into early Saturday. Otherwise,
much of the daytime hours should be dry through Monday. The next system
approaches the region Monday into Tuesday, bringing in the next
chance of precipitation.

Update
Issued at 1055 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017
areal coverage of showers has dwindled quite a bit across the
western great lakes, just since sunset. A good portion of the
activity was diurnally driven. At this point some showers are
stretched out along the cold front which is pushing through the
area, but there is not much activity other than that. Even some
50dbz echo is present with the stronger forcing right along the
front. This should be east of the forecast area by about 200am.

Otherwise expecting some isolated to scattered showers overnight
(20-30pct) for the most part as some marginal instability develops
over the lake. Delta t's will rise into the lower teens c in a
cold air advection regime. Expecting some shower activity off the
lake. Plenty of moisture wraps in overnight, so expecting a good
deal of cloud cover.

Short term (this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 329 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017
the main focus is within the first few hours of the period with
respect to this afternoon's thunderstorm chances.

The bottom line is that much of SW lower has likely avoided the
severe weather once again. We are not completely out of the woods
over the eastern cwa, but a few factors have continued to limit
chances. Plenty of cloud cover resulted from this morning's
showers and storms, largely keeping surface instability in check.

Water vapor shows dry air with plenty of subsidence working in
from west to east behind the front.

Cape values are under 1000 j kg through much of the forecast
area. However, where skies have been partly to mostly sunny over
indiana extreme southern michigan, indices have pushed 2000 j kg.

Meso analysis continues to place effective shear of 40-50 kts
over the southeastern cwa, mainly toward lansing and jackson.

Albeit more robust than reality, high res guidance has done a
decent job in timing placement of showers and storms over central
lower. All-in-all, while severe weather cannot be ruled out, the
window is quickly closing and the likelihood of anything becoming
severe this evening is becoming doubtful.

Low and mid level moisture hangs around through tonight and the
first part of Friday. Clouds and a few shower may linger on the
back side of the system. Moisture finally evacuates by mid to late
Friday afternoon, hinting that clouds may begin to break.

A quick moving shortwave then moves to our south late Friday night
into Saturday. Showers and a couple of thunderstorms are possible,
but this should all be out by mid morning Saturday. Much of the
day will dry out to mark the beginning of improving conditions for
the weekend.

Long term (Sunday through Thursday)
issued at 329 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017
mid level flow pattern transitions from a weak ridge early Sunday to
northwest flow by Tuesday as a persistent low redevelops over
quebec. High pressure will dominate Sunday..But warmer temperatures
will return for the first part of the work week as southerly flow
strengthens. A frontal boundary will try to move through the region
Monday but have little success. A second front... Aided by a short
wave moving southeast from canada... Will push through the region
Tuesday.

Rain chances will increase Monday into Tuesday ahead of the frontal
boundary... With dry weather is expected from Wednesday through the
end of the work week.

Significantly cooler air will move into the region for the latter
half of the week. While 850 mb temperatures will approach 20
degrees c early in the week... Several of the longer range models
indicate that those readings will fall into the 6 to 8 degree c
range. As a result... Above normal temperatures early in the week
will become below normal for the end of the week.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 136 am edt Fri aug 18 2017
moisture associated with low pressure moving across lake superior
will result in a few showers this morning. MVFR CIGS will slowly
move south too. CIGS will increase this afternoon as high pressure
builds into the great lakes and winds will diminish toward 00z.

Marine
Issued at 329 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017
small craft and beach hazard conditions will be present through
Friday. Southerly winds of 20-25 kts will shift out of the west,
giving rise to waves that will build between 5-8 feet. Winds will
gradually die down through Friday evening, which should allow
waves to subside. Headlines will continue through Friday.

Hydrology
Issued at 329 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017
localized rainfall amounts of 0.50" to 1.00" over the last 12 to 24
hours will not be enough to cause basin-wide concerns on area
rivers. Additional light rain for portions of the region Saturday
will not be cause for concern. Rivers will continue to remain well
within their banks through the weekend.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement through this evening for miz037-043-050-
056-064-071.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for lmz844>849.

Update... Duke
synopsis... Jam
short term... Jam
long term... Mws
aviation... 04
hydrology... Hoving
marine... Jam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 4 mi45 min WNW 23 G 24 69°F 1004.8 hPa66°F
45161 6 mi55 min W 19 G 21 70°F 70°F1005.1 hPa (-0.3)
45029 23 mi35 min WNW 18 G 23 70°F 72°F7 ft1005.4 hPa63°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 32 mi55 min W 19 G 25 71°F 1006 hPa (+0.0)
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 50 mi55 min W 11 G 17 68°F 63°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI3 mi60 minW 96.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist68°F64°F90%1005 hPa
Fremont Municipal Airport, MI20 mi61 minWSW 610.00 miOvercast67°F67°F100%1004.7 hPa

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------SE10SE9S8S12S13S11S12S12S12S12
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1 day agoNE5E4E3CalmCalmCalmSE6S344SW3SW9SW7SW11SW9Calm4E5E5E5SE6SE9SE10--
2 days agoSE3CalmCalmNE8NE6E7E5NE6NE64N83NE4NW8NW10NW10NW10N10N6N6N6NE6NE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.