Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rochester, NH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 5:26PM Saturday February 23, 2019 4:21 PM EST (21:21 UTC) Moonrise 11:29PMMoonset 10:02AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 222 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
.storm watch in effect from Monday morning through late Monday night...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. A slight chance of rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SE winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, increasing to 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft in the afternoon. Snow in the morning. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 8 to 11 ft, subsiding to 6 to 9 ft after midnight. A chance of rain in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 25 to 35 kt, increasing to 35 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 55 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Moderate freezing spray.
Tue..W winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Moderate freezing spray.
Tue night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Moderate freezing spray.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Light freezing spray.
Wed night..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Light freezing spray.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Light freezing spray.
ANZ100 222 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. High pressure will slowly shift east of the waters tonight before strong low pressure moves into the great lakes on Sunday...with a secondary low forming over the gulf of maine Sunday night. This low will strengthen rapidly as it moves into the canadian maritimes on Monday with widespread gales and possibly storm force winds out of the west behind it. These winds will very gradually subside through Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds into the region from the west. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rochester, NH
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location: 43.24, -71.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 231928
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
228 pm est Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure organizing over the plains and mississippi valley
will lift north and east into the great lakes on Sunday... With
an associated warm front bringing snow and mixed precipitation
to northern new england. A secondary low pressure system will
strengthen along the maine coast and move into the canadian
maritimes Sunday night and Monday... Resulting in a period of
potentially damaging winds as arctic air moves into the region.

Windy and cold weather will continue through Tuesday with high
pressure arriving from the west for the middle and latter
portion of next week... With temperatures remaining below normal.

Low pressure and more inclement weather will approach the
region by next weekend.

Near term through tonight
High impact weather potential: slick travel developing over parts of
southern new hampshire towards daybreak.

Pattern: early afternoon GOES 16 mid level water vapor imagery
shows an impressive shortwave trough lifting through the central
plains with a broad area of warm advection-induced
moisture cloudiness streaming into the northeastern united
states. This is resulting in an increase in upper level
cloudiness across our area as high pressure that crested over
the region this morning slowly settles into the canadian
maritimes. Clearly the focus will be on the upstream
shortwave... With attendant surface low moving into the great
lakes tonight... Reaching the straits of mackinac by daybreak
Sunday. To it S east... Ongoing moist warm advection will bring
precipitation to our doorstep by the end of this forecast period
daybreak Sunday.

Through this evening: relatively mild afternoon with quiet weather
across the region with varying amounts of high cloudiness. Temperatures
by 8pm will be in the 20s to around 30 in the mountains... With
lower middle 30s along the coast and into the foothills.

Tonight: top down saturation continues through the night with 24-36
hour model trends suggesting a slight slowing to the arrival of any
precipitation. There has also been a reduction in just how
organized the precipitation shield is at first... With one band of
better forcing along the northward-lifting occluded front to our
west... And the other at the nose of the h8 low level jet. This
latter feature will largely be our precipitation-maker... But
this will take longer to arrive and fits the delayed timing seen
in the guidance.

Through daybreak... Any precipitation that falls should take the form
of snow... And only occur over new hampshire. Don t foresee more than
an inch of accumulation through daybreak but precipitation will be
expanding... And becoming steadier and heavier as we cross into the
short term period Sunday morning.

Temperature forecast is a bit of a challenge given a later arrival
to precipitation. Simulated satellite imagery suggests a window for
radiational cooling through the first half of the night...

particularly over northern areas. Dewpoint depressions suggest
plenty of room for temperatures to drop... And will follow closer to
colder met trends for the overnight... With teens north and
lower middle 20s south favored.

Short term Sunday through Sunday night
High impact weather potential:
*snow transitioning to mixed precipitation and rain with continued
travel impacts.

*southeasterly wind gusts may near advisory levels Sunday afternoon
and evening along the midcoast.

*westerly winds begin to strengthen rapidly after midnight Sunday
night all areas.

Sunday: little in the way of significant change to the guidance
suite today as warm advection LLJ driven precipitation shield
crosses the forecast area through the day. Guidance is also
consistent in the development of a triple point low during the
afternoon over southeastern new england that rides north and
east through the evening. NAM remains the warmest of the
guidance aloft... With the GFS significantly cooler. The rap
provides a nice compromise... And helps produce a solution in
line with the href mean and was followed for this package. At
the surface... Suspect that none of the guidance is quite cold
enough... Particularly south of the mountains in the cold air
damming regime. Have followed close to the 3km NAM and met
guidance... But even had to lower this in spots to slow the
temperature rise during the morning given southeasterly flow
which should favor persistent damming through the day.

Ptype: given the preferences above... Expect precipitation to begin
as snow everywhere... But quickly transition to sleet and freezing
rain away from the coast over southern nh with a transition to plain
rain along the coast. Expect the transition in ptype along the
maine coast to be more surface-layer driven... With a change from
snow to rain. Over the mountains and foothills temperatures aloft
may allow for sleet to mix in for a time... But the back edge of the
precipitation will probably arrive before any significant icing.

Qpf: remain somewhat conservative given good agreement between the
hrrr 3km NAM and href in heavily favoring terrain areas... With
another MAX along the midcoast focused along the coastal front.

Qpf ranges from 0.25" in the downslope regime NW of the
whites... To nearly 1 inch in the terrain and 0.75-1" along the
maine coast.

Snow ice: snow amounts have come down with this update... But we
remain around warning thresholds over the western maine mountains
and foothills and will continue the warning. In these areas
4-7" is likely... With 6-10" in the high terrain. 1-3" appears
likely over coastal maine... With a coating to 2" expected south
of the lakes region in nh. As for ice... Do not expect this to be
a very significant ice maker with the greatest accumulations
likely over southwestern nh in areas of terrain where 0.1-0.2"
of ice is expected. At the valley bottom... Little to no ice is
expected.

Headlines: no changes with this update. Do not have support to add
the coastal counties... And see no reason to transition any of the
advisory area to warnings.

Sunday night: secondary low south of portland Sunday evening will
begin to strengthen rapidly as it lifts north and east Sunday
night... With pressure falls from around 990 mb 00z Monday to around
973-974 mb by daybreak. Precipitation shield will exit rapidly
during the evening with impressive cold advection overspreading the
region and taking t8s from above freezing over much of the area
Sunday evening to around -12c by daybreak. Remaining precipitation
will becoming increasingly confined to upslope areas in the
mountains and will take the form of snow as temperatures fall
through the column. Elsewhere... The story will be developing winds
as aforementioned cold advection ensures deep mixing through the
night. Isallobaric component isn t much help during the
overnight... But with strengthening llevel gradient... Expect winds to
increase after midnight with gusts over 30mph likely by daybreak.

More wind to come Monday... See below.

Temperatures will fall through the night... But given that they will
be pretty mild in the evening Sunday... Lows won t be all that
cold... 20s to around 30 from the mountains to the coast.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Ensemble and deterministic model solutions are in decent
agreement on the long wave pattern through late next week.

However... The block over the eastern pacific and fast split flow
over the CONUS makes timing of individual shortwave impulses as
well as interaction potential phasing between streams difficult.

The primary theme will be a mean trough over central and eastern
canada and from the northern plains eastward across the great
lakes into the northeast conus. Below normal temperatures can be
expected with this pattern. Several shots of fresh arctic air will
spill into the forecast area over the next ten days punctuated by
brief warm ups with passing storm systems. In the dailies... Deep
low pressure over the maritimes with cyclonic flow producing
lingering clouds and a few snow showers Monday and Monday night along
with strong westerly winds. High pressure and arctic air builds
east into the area for Tuesday through Friday with temperatures
averaging well below normal. The next disturbance should arrive
by next weekend preceded by moderating temperatures and potential
for yet another snow to mix event... Especially for coastal sections.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
Short term...

summary: high pressure will move east of the region allowing a
frontal system to arrive from the west early Sunday... With snow and
mixed precipitation as low pressure redevelops over the gulf of
maine and then moves into the canadian maritimes Sunday night and
Monday. Behind this system... Very strong westerly winds will
develop.

Restrictions: VFR likely to persist all terminals through 9z
Sunday. Beyond this... Expect rapid deterioration to vlifr lifr in
snow... Which will spread through all terminals from southwest to
northeast by 15z Sunday. Precipitation will likely change to rain
psm-pwm-rkd... With snow becoming a mix including freezing rain
and sleet and possibly rain elsewhere during the day Sunday.

Conditions improve rapidly toVFR Sunday night as low pressure
and it S associated precipitation pull east of the area.

Winds: light winds today go calm tonight before becoming east and
southeasterly around 10kts for the day on Sunday. Winds along
the me coast pwm-rkd will strengthen to 15g25kts with gusts
over 30kts possible Sunday afternoon and evening. Winds shift
westerly Sunday night and increase to 15g25kts by daybreak
Monday with much stronger winds expected into the day see long
term discussion .

Llws: southeasterly winds aloft strengthen on Sunday... With a
low level inversion suggesting the potential for llws by late
morning and through the afternoon. Best chance of llws before
18z Sunday will be over southern nh... But values at this range
are too marginal to include in the TAF package. A better signal
exists in the 18z-00z timeframe and we ll continue to assess in
future forecasts.

Long term...

mon - Mon night... Sct MVFR -shsn.

Westerly sfc wind gusts to 45 kt.

Tue... Nw sfc wind gusts to 30 kt.

Marine
Short term...

after light winds tonight... Southeasterly winds strengthen ahead of
a warm front... With gales likely by Sunday afternoon as low pressure
takes shape over southern new england... And tracks northeast across
the gulf of maine and into eastern maine Sunday night. A few gusts
to near storm force are possible Sunday afternoon in zone anz150
matinicus ... But the longer lasting and greater wind threat will
come on Monday.

Long term...

mon - Mon night... Storms likely... Especially outside the bays.

Tue - wed... Gales likely.

Thu... Sca's likely.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... Winter weather advisory from 3 am to 7 pm est Sunday for
mez018>020.

High wind watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening
for mez007>009-012>014-018>028.

Winter storm warning from 7 am Sunday to midnight est Sunday
night for mez007>009-012>014.

Winter weather advisory from 7 am Sunday to midnight est
Sunday night for mez021-022.

Nh... Winter weather advisory from 3 am to 7 pm est Sunday for
nhz005>013-015.

High wind watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening
for nhz001>015.

Winter storm warning from 7 am Sunday to midnight est Sunday
night for nhz004.

Winter weather advisory from 3 am Sunday to midnight est
Sunday night for nhz001>003.

Marine... Storm watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for
anz150>154.

Synopsis...

near term... Arnott
short term... Arnott
long term... Schwibs
aviation... Arnott schwibs
marine... Arnott schwibs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 19 mi157 min W 2.9 39°F 1030 hPa15°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 29 mi34 min S 11 G 12 36°F 37°F1028.7 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 30 mi142 min SSE 6 36°F 26°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 32 mi22 min S 14 G 15 35°F 1028.2 hPa (-1.4)27°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 36 mi78 min S 12 G 16 35°F 39°F1 ft1028.1 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester - Skyhaven Airport, NH10 mi31 minN 010.00 miFair39°F16°F39%1027.5 hPa
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH18 mi26 minSSE 810.00 miOvercast36°F24°F63%1028.1 hPa
Concord Municipal Airport, NH21 mi31 minN 010.00 miFair38°F16°F41%1028.2 hPa
Sanford, Sanford Regional Airport, ME24 mi26 minSSW 310.00 miFair38°F17°F43%1028.4 hPa

Wind History from DAW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11NW8NW6NW9N7CalmN3NW5NW5NW4CalmCalmNW3NW5NW4NW4NW3NW4NW4NE34NW3--Calm
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2 days agoS3CalmCalmCalmS33CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5N5N5N6N6N5NW9NW5CalmCalmW74NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Salmon Falls River entrance, Piscataqua River, New Hampshire
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Salmon Falls River entrance
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Sat -- 03:09 AM EST     8.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:29 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:01 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:35 AM EST     -0.89 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:33 PM EST     7.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:01 PM EST     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.25.67.38.17.76.54.52.20.4-0.7-0.80.32.24.66.67.87.875.33.21.1-0.2-0.7-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Portsmouth Harbor Entrance, New Hampshire Current
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Portsmouth Harbor Entrance
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Sat -- 03:20 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:06 AM EST     -2.29 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:28 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:00 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:50 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:58 AM EST     1.60 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:37 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:29 PM EST     -2.35 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:16 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.410.3-0.8-1.9-2.3-2.1-1.7-0.90.21.21.61.410.5-0.4-1.6-2.3-2.3-1.9-1.3-0.30.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.