Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayside, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 7:50PM Friday August 18, 2017 1:03 PM CDT (18:03 UTC) Moonrise 2:26AMMoonset 5:35PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 1105 Am Cdt Fri Aug 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm cdt this afternoon...
Rest of today..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots late in the morning and early afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..West wind 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing southeast late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves nearly calm.
Saturday night..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves nearly calm.
LMZ644 Expires:201708182200;;577611 FZUS53 KMKX 181605 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-182200-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayside, WI
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location: 43.24, -87.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 181756 aac
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1256 pm cdt Fri aug 18 2017

Update
Aviation(18z tafs)
The stratus in the east continues to scatter this morning, as
cloud bases also improve due to daytime mixing. The remaining MVFR
locations are expected to improve toVFR by mid to late
afternoon.

A shortwave may bring a shower or a few sprinkles to the area late
afternoon into the evening.VFR ceilings are expected with this
system.

Could see a little fog in the wisconsin river valley later tonight
into Sat morning under light winds and clearing skies. High
pressure should then bring mostly sunny skies to the area
Saturday.

Prev discussion (issued 939 am cdt Fri aug 18 2017)
update...

skies started mostly sunny in the southwest early this morning,
but are quickly filling in with cumulus. On the flip side, mostly
cloudy skies in the northeast should scatter later morning into
the afternoon, likely resulting in afternoon cumulus across the
forecast area. May see a few showers west by late afternoon as a
wave approaches.

Should be enough Sun poking through this afternoon to reach
forecast highs in the upper 70s.

Marine...

still seeing a few gusts approaching small craft advisory criteria
this morning, so will let the advisory go until the scheduled
expiration of 1 pm.

Lighter winds are expected over the weekend.

Prev discussion... (issued 610 am cdt Fri aug 18 2017)
update...

aviation(12z tafs)...

area of low clouds with ceilings varying between 2000 and 3000
feet are expected to gradually slide to the east of the area by
later this morning. Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds should
develop by this afternoon. More middle to high clouds should move
into the area by this afternoon, though some sunshine should
still occur. Gusty west northwest winds are expected this morning,
before gradually weakening this afternoon.

May see some showers, and a thunderstorm or two, move southeast
through the area mainly tonight. Best chances will be near the
illinois border. Light winds are expected tonight, withVFR
category ceilings. Light fog may develop later tonight, though
there is some uncertainty if clouds hang around. Fog is expected
in the wisconsin river valley later tonight.

Prev discussion... (issued 326 am cdt Fri aug 18 2017)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium.

Area of low clouds over most of the area early this morning is
expected to gradually shift to the east by later in the morning.

Rather tight pressure gradient will continue to bring gusty west
northwest winds to the area into this morning. The pressure
gradient will gradually weaken this afternoon, which should help
ease the gusts.

Diurnal cumulus clouds should develop by this afternoon. An area
of middle to high clouds will try to push into portions of the
area from the west as well, with the lead 500 mb vorticity
maximum. There should still be some sunshine that filters through,
so expect highs to reach the upper 70s in most areas.

Main 500 mb shortwave trough is expected to slide southeast across
the region this evening, then exit later tonight. It appears that
the best upward vertical motion from differential cyclonic
vorticity advection, as well as low level frontogenesis response,
will be just south of the area. This is where the best QPF from
the models is located.

Still, kept chance slight chance pops going for showers for
mainly tonight, highest in the south near the illinois border.

Kept small thunder mention as well, though area forecast soundings
look a bit overdone with surface dewpoints and subsequent mean
layer cape. May see light fog later tonight, but kept out of
forecast for now. Lows look to reach the upper 50s in most areas.

Long term...

Saturday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is high.

The upper trough should be east of southeast wi by Saturday
morning, so expecting a dry weekend with light winds and
increasing temps and humidity. Look for a lake breeze on Saturday.

Highs Sat will be around 80 and up to 82-85 on Sunday.

Monday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A front will slowly sag southeast through wi Monday and Tuesday.

There are weak ripples in zonal flow across the midwest, along
with the right entrance region of an upper jet. Any one of these
could trigger a thunderstorm complex either upstream of wi or over
wi. One scenario is a decaying MCS over southern wi Monday
morning, clearing up just in time for another round of showers and
storms developing on the nose of the low level jet in the late
afternoon evening. Another scenario would be an upstream complex
slowly tracking across central wi all day.

The GFS and canadian models are showing very high precipitable
water values over southern wi, in 1.75 to 2 inch range. Models
also show moderate CAPE and marginal shear. A few severe storms
look possible, but this could end up as mainly a heavy rain event.

Unfortunately, there is a pretty good chance of clouds hindering
the view of the solar eclipse in wi on Monday.

Conditions will remain favorable for scattered storms through
Tuesday evening until that front gets south of the il border.

Wednesday through Friday... Forecast confidence is high.

Dry high pressure will bring pleasant weather to southern wi for
the remainder of the work week. Temperatures will be below
average.

Aviation(09z tafs)...

area of low clouds with ceilings varying between 1500 and 3500
feet are expected to gradually slide to the east of the area by
later this morning. Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds should
develop by this afternoon. More middle to high clouds should move
into the area this afternoon, though some sunshine should still
occur. Gusty west northwest winds are expected this morning,
before gradually weakening this afternoon.

May see some showers and a thunderstorm or two move southeast
through the area mainly tonight. Best chances will be near the
illinois border. Light winds are expected tonight, withVFR
category ceilings. Light fog may develop later tonight, though
there is some uncertainty if clouds hang around. Fog is expected
in the wisconsin river valley later tonight.

Marine...

a small craft advisory is in effect until 18z today across the
nearshore waters of lake michigan. A rather tight pressure
gradient into this morning will continue to bring gusty west
northwest winds. Gusts to 25 knots are expected. The pressure
gradient will gradually weaken this afternoon. This will help
weaken the gusts below 22 knots. High waves will remain over the
open waters.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 1 pm cdt this afternoon for
lmz643>646.

Update... Ddv
today tonight and aviation marine... Wood
Saturday through Thursday... Cronce


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 10 mi83 min NW 6 G 18 71°F 1010.8 hPa
45013 10 mi84 min NW 9.7 G 12 69°F 70°F1010.7 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 14 mi43 min WNW 9.9 G 12 70°F
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 36 mi63 min WNW 17 G 20 69°F 1008.7 hPa (+0.4)57°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 45 mi63 min WNW 14 G 18 71°F 1010.8 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI13 mi79 minWNW 10 G 1410.00 miOvercast70°F55°F60%1011.2 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI19 mi72 minW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F59°F64%1010.3 hPa
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI20 mi69 minW 710.00 miOvercast68°F59°F73%1010.5 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI24 mi79 minNW 8 G 1310.00 miOvercast68°F57°F69%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from MWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW17
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1 day agoE6E6E8E6E8E6E6E5E5SE5E4CalmS4S4S7S8S9S9S5S10S8SW10
G18
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2 days agoN7E7E5E5E5NE5NE5NE4CalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--E4E6E8E8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.