Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chester, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 4:24PM Saturday November 18, 2017 3:20 AM EST (08:20 UTC) Moonrise 7:38AMMoonset 5:57PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chester, VT
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location: 43.26, -72.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 180559
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1259 am est Sat nov 18 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will slide across the region tonight. A warm front
approaches Saturday with clouds and the increase chance for wet
conditions later in the day into Saturday night. A strong cold
front pushes through by Sunday morning with rain showers mixing
with snow along with increasing winds. Strong gusty winds and
colder temperatures will occur through Sunday night. Then lake
effect snow will develop Sunday night into Monday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 1240 am, seeing mid high level clouds continuing to
increase from west to east across the region. Temps have begun
to stabilize across areas along the hudson valley and points
west, so suspect we have reached our overnight lows in these
locales.

Previous discussion... Earlier mid level cloud deck across
central nys eroded upon tracking east. Latest 00z 18 upper air
soundings across the northeast suggest the mid level ridge axis
was still located across west central nys, favoring the erosion
of mid level clouds as they enter our region. However, as this
ridge axis shifts farther east after midnight, there should be a
better tendency for mid level clouds to extend advect into our
region. So, mainly clear through at least midnight, with a
gradual increase in mid level clouds from NW to SE after
midnight.

As for low temps, with some mid teens across portions of the
western adirondacks already, have lowered min temps in this
region, as some single digits lower teens could occur shortly
after midnight, before temps gradually rise in this region
before daybreak as clouds increase, and a light southeast wind
develops. Elsewhere, expect mid teens to lower 20s by daybreak.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Sunday
Strong to potentially damaging winds possible behind a cold
front Sunday...

surface ridge axis slides east of the region Saturday morning as
moisture profiles remain quite dry per the average moisture
profiles. Even the latest 18z NAM is even drier as we will delay
pops wx a bit longer through Saturday morning. Then strong
isentropic lift and warm advection will occur Saturday
afternoon as low level jet magnitudes climb toward or higher
than 50kts. Periods of rain drizzle will evolve and some of the
onset wet bulb processes may bring a wintry mix into portions of
the region. However, this should be rather short lived as
strong warm advection will continue to warm the column for
mainly rain. This continues into Saturday night as surface low
and strong upper level impulse approaches as surface low tracks
across upstate ny.

Then strong cold advection with the passage of the cold front by
Sunday morning sunrise west of the hudson. This is where a
transition toward rain snow to snow showers and possible squalls
will occur as h850 temperatures drop back below 0c across the
entire region. The main story of the day will be the increasing
winds. Forecast bufkit profiles suggest mixing layer heights
climb toward 5k feet where 50+kts reside. Furthermore, per the
forecast trajectories, some funneling down the mohawk into the
capital district, taconics and berkshires could enhance the wind
magnitudes. At this time, we will continue to highlight into
the hwo as future guidance may warrant headlines.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
Sunday night through Monday... The extended forecast opens with lake
effect snowfall impacting locations west of the hudson river valley.

There is still some disagreement with the guidance on the
orientation of the bands and the favored low-level trajectory. Our
forecast remains close to the latest nam GFS with west to northwest
flow, and the schoharie valley and west-central mohawk valley being
overspread with snow showers late Sunday through early Monday, and
then the band bands lifting northward into the western adirondacks,
as the low to mid level flow backs to the west with high pressure
building in from the carolinas.

Some of the lake effect snow showers may extends into the capital
region, northern and central taconics, and the berkshires with light
accums. Locations further to the west may receive light to localized
moderate amounts of snow. Lake effect snow showers should end by
late Monday night as the ridging extends northward into our region.

Highs Monday will mainly be in the upper 20s to mid 30s in most
locations, the exception will be the capital district, mid hudson
valley, and southern litchfield cty where some upper 30s to around
40f readings are possible. Lows Monday night will be mainly in the
20s.

Tuesday... Mild, dry, and mostly clear conditions will be present
with high pressure building in from the south. Highs for Tuesday
will be about 5 degrees above normal in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Wednesday through Friday... High pressure will try to stay in place
to our south with a couple quick bursts of energy dropping down from
canada through the northeast us. Going with slight chance pops north
of the capital region for now as there is considerable uncertainty
between global models at this point. Highs look to be slightly below
normal in the 30s 40s with lows generally in the upper 20s.

Aviation 06z Saturday through Wednesday
As the ridge axis across the region weakens and shifts eastward
overnight into Saturday high and mid level clouds will stream in.

Clouds will thicken and quickly lower late in the day into the
evening as a strong low pressure system approaches from the west
and rain moves into and develops over the local area. Expecting
widespread MVFR by 00z and ifr developing by late evening as
clouds lower further and rain becomes steadier and heavier which
will continue through the overnight hours.

Winds will remain very light to calm overnight with a southerly
flow developing Saturday morning. Southerly winds will increase
to 6 to 10 knots by late morning early afternoon with gusts into
the teens at kalb as flow funnels up the hudson river valley. Winds
will remain southerly with a bit of a shift to the southwest and
will increase some in speed and gusts at kalb and kpsf buy
evening.

Outlook...

Sunday: moderate operational impact. Windy. Scattered shra.

Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Breezy. Chance of
shra... Shsn.

Monday: moderate operational impact. Breezy. Chance of shra... Shsn.

Monday night - Tuesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra... Shsn.

Wednesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Fire weather
Cold and dry conditions in store for tonight, as high pressure
builds eastward across the region. A low pressure system will
approach from the lower great lakes on Saturday, bringing the
next chance for widespread precipitation. The storm system will
intensify Saturday night as it tracks northeast through the
saint lawrence river valley, and will drag a cold front across
our region by Sunday morning. Increasing wind magnitudes and colder
air will filter in by Sunday night, with lake effect snow
developing downwind of lake ontario.

Hydrology
No hydrologic problems are expected on the main stem rivers
through the next week.

High pressure will briefly build in today before a strong low
pressure system approaches from the great lakes region on
Saturday. Widespread rain may begin as a mix with snow in the
western mohawk valley and southern adirondacks but then quickly
change to to all rain that will continue through Saturday night.

A cold front will sweep through Sunday morning with additional
rain changing to snow over the higher terrain. At this time,
total QPF from this system looks to range from a half inch to
near an inch.

A colder air mass will then build in Sunday night through early
next week, with some lake effect snow downwind of lake ontario
affecting the western adirondacks and mohawk schoharie valleys.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Bgm
near term... Kl bgm thompson
short term... Bgm
long term... Cebulko
aviation... Iaa
fire weather... Bgm jpv
hydrology... Bgm jpv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 96 mi96 min W 4.1 29°F 1016 hPa17°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Springfield, Hartness State Springfield Airport, VT8 mi27 minN 010.00 miFair22°F17°F82%1016.2 hPa

Wind History from VSF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10
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6NW5SE44Calm44S3Calm3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3NE3Calm4
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5Calm5S8S6N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Sat -- 04:42 AM EST     4.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:13 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:03 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:06 PM EST     5.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:46 PM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.31.52.73.64.34.43.93.12.41.60.6-0.10.31.534.155.55.24.33.32.41.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:34 AM EST     4.30 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:03 AM EST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:58 PM EST     5.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:03 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:36 PM EST     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.31.62.73.54.24.23.62.82.11.30.3-0.30.31.634.155.44.94320.9-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.