Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 8:09 PM   Moonset 5:16 AM

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LOZ044 Expires:202404240915;;269447 Fzus51 Kbuf 240222 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1022 pm edt Tue apr 23 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-240915- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 1022 pm edt Tue apr 23 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 am edt Wednesday through Wednesday evening - .
Overnight - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north. Rain showers in the morning, then scattered rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 5 to 8 feet, then subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet. Wednesday night - North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south less than 10 knots. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 240802 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 402 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will push away to our southeast today...but for many areas...leftover clouds and showers will linger into the early afternoon. An expansive area of Canadian high pressure will then assure us of fair dry weather Thursday and Friday. While some showers will be likely this coming weekend...the majority of the time will be rainfree
Looking further down the road
we can look forward to a summer-like warm up Sunday and Monday with the mercury surging well into the 70s and even a few spots into the 80s.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Downright Cold Tonight

A series of weak surface waves over the St Lawrence valley this morning will drag a cold front southeast away from our region during the course of the midday and afternoon. A wealth of relatively deep moisture will linger in its wake though with a northerly upslope flow and moderately strong frontogenetic forcing supportive of some lingering showers through the midday hours. Some wet flakes may even mix in across the higher terrain...mainly over the Tug Hill.

As we work through the afternoon...notably drier air will work southwards from Ontario. This in combination with increased subsidence will lead to pronounced clearing from north to south.
Unfortunately...this could mean that areas closer to the Pennsylvania border could be fairly cloudy right up to sunset.

In any case
it will be chilly for most areas today
as a gusty northerly wind will accompany temperatures that will only be in the mid and upper 40s.

A large Canadian sfc high over the Upper Great Lakes this evening will then gradually expand across the whole Great Lakes region overnight and Thursday. This will GUARANTEE fair dry weather throughout the region...although temperatures will be solidly BELOW normal. Mins tonight will be solidly in the 20s away from the immediate lake shores with highs on Thursday only ranging from the Upper 40s to lower 50s. These readings will average some 10 degrees below typical late April levels.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Sprawling surface high pressure centered directly overhead at the start of Thursday evening will slowly drift eastward to New England by Friday morning...then off the New England coast by Friday evening
This will keep fair
dry...and tranquil weather intact across our region right through Friday...along with mainly clear/mostly sunny skies. Favorable conditions for radiational cooling (especially across eastern sections) will allow for one last chilly night with lows ranging from the mid 20s east to the lower 30s west Thursday night...before a developing SSE return flow of milder air and building ridging/subsidence aloft help temps to climb back into the lower to mid 60s in most areas Friday. The warmest readings on Friday will be found along the Lake Erie shoreline due to an added boost from downsloping...while areas along the south shore of Lake Ontario will be notably cooler (50s) due to an ENE flow off that lake.

Friday night and Saturday an initial weakening cutter-type system will lift northeastward across the northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes. A warm frontal boundary snaking southeastward from this low will approach our area from the west later Friday night before partially crossing our region during Saturday...while also weakening as it pushes further out ahead of its filling parent surface low and runs smack dab into the sharp upper ridging that will still be in place aloft. It still appears that enough isentropic ascent and moisture will be in place to bring a decent likelihood of some showers to far western New York late Friday night and Saturday morning...with this activity then tending to weaken and diminish in coverage as it pushes further east during the afternoon hours.
Meanwhile persistent warm air advection will result in a continued upward arc in temperatures...with lows in the lower 40s east to around 50 west Friday night followed by fairly widespread highs ranging from the upper 50s/lower 60s east to the mid-upper 60s west on Saturday. Should the showers break up quickly enough across far western New York Saturday afternoon...the presence of a stiff southerly downslope flow and 850 mb temps of around +10C may well provide a sneaky potential for readings to surge into the lower 70s along the Lake Erie shoreline and across portions of the Niagara Frontier...even in spite of what should still be fairly cloudy skies.

Saturday night the weakening initial surface low will lift further northeast across central Ontario and into Quebec Province...while a second and stronger cutter-type low takes shape across the central Plains States
At the same time
upper level ridging will also begin to rebuild northward across the Ohio Valley and New York State. Additional scattered to numerous showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will remain possible attendant to the weakening/departing warm frontal boundary (with chances for these highest across north central New York)...with a few much more widely scattered showers/storms remaining possible elsewhere due to continued modest/ broad warm air advection aloft. Otherwise it will be a mild night more typical of late May/June as the warm sector establishes itself across our area...with overnight lows ranging from the lower 50s east to around 60 across the lake plains of far western New York.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
On Sunday the initial surface low will wash out across northern Quebec...while the second cutter system develops into the northern Plains States
These developments
coupled with continued building upper level ridging aloft...will help to stall out the initial system's cold front to our north...leaving our area awash in warm air typical of late spring/early summer with 850 mb temps reaching the +11C to +13C range by afternoon. Such warmth will be supportive of highs reaching well into the 70s south of Lake Ontario...and into the lower 70s across the North Country. The warmest readings overall will be found across the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes...where it's appearing increasingly likely that some locations (for example, Dansville) could crack the 80 degree mark. With synoptic-scale forcing notably weaker with our region lying within the warm sector and under the building upper level ridge...any convective potential will likely be more dependent upon diurnal heating of our warm and borderline humid airmass...and with this in mind have focused some chance PoPs across the typical areas inland from the lakes during the heating of the day...though the day is also likely to feature a considerable amount of dry time overall.
Any such activity should then tend to fade with the loss of heating and continued building of the upper ridge Sunday night...leaving behind mainly dry and unseasonably warm conditions for the bulk of the night...with lows mostly ranging between 55 and 60.

Expect similar conditions to prevail on Monday as the second cutter low makes its way northeastward and across Lake Superior...with temps likely to reach even a few degrees higher than those of Sunday as 850 mb T's climb to between +12C and +15C. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms may then arrive Monday night and Tuesday as the surface low makes its way to Quebec and slides its trailing cold front across our region...with somewhat cooler (but still well above normal) temperatures expected on Tuesday owing to the frontal passage.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Fairly widespread IFR cigs will be in place this morning along with leftover rain or wet snow showers...as a slow moving cold front will exit to our southeast. During the course of the midday and early afternoon...these low cigs will thin and clear from north to south...leaving VFR weather for the latter portion of the day. Along with the pronounced clearing...a gusty north to northwest wind will occasionally gust to 30 knots at times.

High pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes this evening will then slowly settle over the region tonight and Thursday. This will guarantee fair dry VFR weather.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.
Sunday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.

MARINE
In the wake of a passing cold front...winds will shift to the north and freshen through the midday hours. While this will result in small craft advisory conditions on Lake Ontario...the short fetch and relative brief duration of the elevated winds will only produce choppy to occasionally rough waters on Lake Erie.

Expansive high pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes this evening will then gradually build across the Lower Great Lakes overnight and Thursday. This will significantly lower winds and waves throughout the region tonight...with only gentle breezes and negligible wave action expected for Thursday as the sfc high passes overhead.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LOZ042- 045.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ043-044.

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