Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sodus Point, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 8:01PM Sunday August 20, 2017 12:11 AM EDT (04:11 UTC) Moonrise 3:52AMMoonset 6:27PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 1024 Am Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Scattered showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of waterspouts. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers Monday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day...then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day...then a chance of showers Wednesday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ044 Expires:201708191545;;625499 FZUS51 KBUF 191424 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1024 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-045-191545-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sodus Point, NY
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location: 43.27, -76.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 200057
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
857 pm edt Sat aug 19 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will build across the eastern great lakes overnight
and Sunday, moving east of the area on Monday. This will bring
gradually warming temperatures through Monday. A strong cold front
will cross the region Tuesday, with widespread showers and
thunderstorms. This will be followed by much cooler and less humid
conditions for the end of next week.

Near term through Sunday
Well-defined surface trough currently crossing the region with an
associated band of showers and isolated thunderstorms. This is the
same band of showers which produced a couple of waterspouts
immediately off shore of lake erie from around dunkirk up to near
lackawanna earlier this evening. This activity will exit eastern
areas by midnight or so.

Increasing subsidence and drying will bring clearing skies from the
west in wake of the trough. Expect fog to develop in river valleys
across the southern tier as skies clear. Lows will range from the
lower 60s on the lake plains to the mid 50s across the interior
southern tier and lewis county.

On Sunday, high pressure will ridge into the region with dry weather
and partly to mostly sunny skies. In the morning there may be some
lingering lake induced cloud cover, then in the afternoon diurnal
cumulus should develop inland of the lake breeze. In each case,
cloud coverage should be partial at most. Otherwise,
temperatures will be a bit warmer with highs ranging from the
mid 70s to lower 80s.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday night
Sunday night and Monday will be characterized by generally fair
weather as upper level ridging transits the region. Speaking of
transits, the ridging should provide for good viewing conditions for
the upcoming solar eclipse - while we may see some diurnal fair-
weather CU developing inland of the lakes during the afternoon,
skies will remain mostly clear during the early afternoon hours on
Monday. Skies will be clearest northeast of the lakes, where the
prevailing southwesterly flow should generate a lake shadow.

The aforementioned southwesterly flow will be the product of broad
return flow around a prominent western extension of the bermuda high
that will be solidly in place across the southeastern u.S.. While
temperatures Sunday night will be seasonable, with clear skies and
light winds allowing for radiational cooling that will in turn cause
temperatures to drop into the upper 50s in the coolest southern
tier north country spots, with low to mid 60s elsewhere, readings
will climb into the mid 80s on Monday as the return flow advects
increasingly warm and moist air into the region, with 850mb temps
climbing to +18c by Monday afternoon. The southwesterly flow and
associated downsloping will tack on an additional couple of degrees
across the genesee valley and the lake ontario plain, where highs
will reach the upper 80s.

The warm temperatures will be accompanied by increasing mugginess as
well, as gomex moisture is drawn across the mississippi and ohio
valleys and into the great lakes. Dewpoints will surge into the mid
to upper 60s Monday night, resulting in lows that will fail to dip
below 70 across much of the lake erie and lake ontario plains, while
the rest of the forecast area will only dip into the mid 60s, making
for a sticky night.

The hot and muggy weather will persist into Tuesday. The warm and
moist airmass will become increasingly unstable on Tuesday, with the
approach of a deep upper level trough tracking across the great
lakes. This will likely drive showers and thunderstorms that will
develop across the forecast area Tuesday afternoon ahead of a strong
cold front that will be crossing the region Tuesday night. An
anomalously strong 40+ LLJ ahead of the trough will advect
additional moisture and significantly increase low-level shear as
well, and latest 12z runs are a little faster with the timing of the
trough driving the convection, with lift arriving during peak
diurnal heating Tuesday afternoon. Given the very warm and moist
airmass preceding the system, and the strength of the synoptic
system and associated vertical shear, severe weather is looking
increasingly likely Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, as noted
in the SPC day 4 outlook. After another day in the mid to upper 80s,
readings will fall off into the low to mid 60s in the wake of the
cold frontal passage.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
A much cooler airmass will flow over the region this period, behind
a strong cold front from Tuesday.

Initially Wednesday a few lake effect rain showers will be possible
east of the lakes as cool 850 hpa temperatures of +7 to +8c flow
over the lakes. As the upper level trough passes Wednesday
additional scattered showers will be possible across the region. In
addition winds will be brisk Wednesday especially over the lakes and
along the shoreline where wnw winds upwards to 25 knots and
increasing wave heights will be likely.

Thursday we will still have anticyclonic flow aloft, and with the
core of the cold air passing over the lakes, additional lake effect
showers and clouds will be possible... Though with a thinner moisture
layer... Expect the lake response to be more clouds than showers.

Both Wednesday and Thursday will be cool with highs in the upper 60s
to lower 70s.

Sprawling high pressure will then reach our region for Friday and
Saturday with abundant sunshine and temperatures around 70
Friday increasing to the lower 70s for Saturday.

Aviation 01z Sunday through Thursday
Scattered showers passing through the finger lakes and north central
new york through about 04z. Some MVFR conditions possible with this
activity, otherwiseVFR as skies clear from west to east overnight.

Clearing skies will lead to the development of valley fog late
tonight across the western southern tier with local ifr.

Any valley fog will quickly dissipate Sunday morning, with
mostly clear skies andVFR conditions during the day Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday...VFR except for late night and early
morning valley fog with local ifr.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR, with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Tuesday night... MVFR ifr, with showers and thunderstorms
likely.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers.

Marine
A moderate west-southwest flow will continue up to midnight
with choppy to small craft conditions on both lake erie and
ontario. Winds will then diminish from west to east overnight
with conditions on the lakes improving. There is a chance of
waterspouts with any shower activity through this evening.

Although the 850 mb to lake temperatures difference is marginal,
equilibrium levels will increase significantly with the passage
of the mid level trough.

High pressure will bring a return to lighter winds Sunday and
Monday. Then a strong cold front will result in increasing winds
Tuesday which may require another round of small craft headlines
before and after the cold frontal passage. There also may be
strong thunderstorms along and ahead of the front.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Beach hazards statement until 11 pm edt this evening for
nyz006-007-010-019-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lez040-
041.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Sunday for loz044-
045.

Synopsis... Apffel tma
near term... Apffel tma
short term... Church
long term... Thomas
aviation... Apffel tma
marine... Apffel tma


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 29 mi42 min W 17 G 21 71°F 1012.5 hPa62°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 32 mi72 min WSW 8 G 9.9 68°F 1013.9 hPa (+2.0)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 33 mi82 min WNW 18 G 19 70°F 71°F3 ft1011.8 hPa (+2.1)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 34 mi42 min 67°F 1013.4 hPa
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 36 mi72 min WNW 14 G 16 70°F 71°F3 ft1011.6 hPa (+2.0)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY32 mi18 minWSW 610.00 miOvercast67°F63°F87%1012.7 hPa

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Last 24hrSW5SW4SW4SE3S5S3SW4SW6SW7W8W8W8W10W10
G17
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1 day ago543S6S7SW4S5S5SW8SW9SW9SW11SW9SW5S94S7NW9W9W8W5W3SW3SW5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3E3SE3CalmCalmE355SE6S6Calm3CalmCalmCalmCalm4SE3SE44

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.