Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sodus Point, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 5:06PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 5:03 AM EST (10:03 UTC) Moonrise 8:24PMMoonset 9:23AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201901231000;;784723 Fzus51 Kbuf 230545 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1231 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-231000- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1231 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Overnight..South winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow, then snow, sleet and freezing rain likely late. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain and sleet in the morning, then rain in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots. Snow in the morning, then scattered snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday night..West winds to 30 knots becoming southwest 15 to 25 knots. Scattered flurries in the evening, then snow showers likely overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north and diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Lake effect snow. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of lake effect snow showers during the day. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 35 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sodus Point, NY
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location: 43.27, -76.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 230933
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
433 am est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
An area of low pressure will track into the central great lakes by
this afternoon. This will cause a wintry mixture of precipitation,
before changing to all rain from west to east. Temperatures will
continue to rise today as the area of low pressure approaches the
region. Cooling temperatures will follow behind this system through
the rest of the week.

Near term through tonight
Showers are starting to expand across portions of the area.

Precipitation is struggling to reach the ground though with dewpoint
depressions of 15+ at many locations. Temperatures in general are
warming with a southerly flow, but with the dewpoint depressions
noted as precip falls, evaporational cooling will help drop temps a
few degrees briefly until the atmospheric column moisture content
increases, after which point warm air advection will then continue
the upward trend with the temperatures.

An area of low pressure is approaching the central great lakes from
the mid-mississippi valley this morning. Out ahead of this system,
mid-level warm air advection has warmed the mid-levels to above
freezing in some areas, and will continue to do so from west to east
through the morning. As the air warms, any snow that is falling will
will melt and either refreeze to sleet or as the warm layer expands
aloft, fall as freezing rain. Temperatures will continue to warm
this morning as a warm front passes through the area ahead of the
approaching low pressure system. Once temperatures warm with the
warm frontal passage, precipitation will change to rain from west to
east. After temperatures warm above freezing, any rain that does
fall will likely freeze on contact with the ground for a at least a
few hours after temperatures warm above freezing; due to the cold
ground temperatures from the bitterly cold conditions the past few
days.

The morning commute will likely be impacted across the buffalo and
rochester metros. A winter weather advisory is in effect for western
ny through 2 pm today. The warm nose will stay south of the north
country and as moisture moves into the region, snow is expected.

East of lake ontario, snow will continue into the morning hours
before transitioning to freezing rain through the afternoon. Total
snow accumulations of up to 2 inches with the higher amounts across
the northern tug hill region. A winter weather advisory for east of
lake ontario in effect for 7 am - 6pm Wednesday. Total ice
accumulation of a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch across the
region, except around a tenth of an inch east of lake ontario.

As the area of low pressure approaches the region, an area of high
pressure will slowly shift east off the mid-atlantic coast. An
increasing pressure gradient between these two systems will develop,
resulting in gusty winds of 25-35 mph for most areas. A strong
southerly flow and passing warm front will increase warm air
advection today, and temperatures will warm to the upper 30s to mid
40s across areas from the northern finger lakes westward. Areas
across the north country will stay slightly cooler with highs
reaching the mid to upper 30s, where the transition to all rain will
not last as long before the cold front passes later in the evening.

The area of low pressure will center over lake huron by this evening
and continue northeast into central quebec by Thursday morning. As
the area of low pressure tracks northeast, a trailing cold front
will pass through the area. The cold front will cross the area this
evening into the overnight from west to east. As temperatures drop
behind the passing cold front, any remaining rain will change to a
rain snow mix and then all snow. Low temperatures tonight will drop
to the upper 20s and low 30s after the cold front passes through the
region.

Short term Thursday through Saturday night
Significant lake snows possible during this period...

surface cold front will be in the process of exiting east of the
area Thursday morning. The rain will be transitioning to snow showers
east of the finger lakes during the morning. Once the cold front
moves east, the steady precipitation will end leaving some residual
snow showers or flurries into the afternoon. Temperatures will be
the warmest early in the day, before slowly cooling through the
afternoon.

A clipper low and associated arctic cold front will approach the
region Thursday night. Most of the area will see scattered snow
showers ahead of this feature. General westerly flow will give an
additional boost to snowfall east of the lakes with the potential
for a few inches through Thursday night.

On Friday... Moderate to heavy lake snow will become established east
of lake ontario with less impressive snows found east of lake erie.

There will be three main reasons for the difference. The first will
be the aforementioned arctic cold front that will stall in the
vicinity of lake ontario. The front will serve as an additional
focusing mechanism for lake snows that should already be in place
over the center of the lake. Most guidance packages are already
locking onto the idea that there will be an area of strong low level
convergence in this area... Both due to the thermal circulation over
the lake and also from the synoptic scale forcing from the stalled
boundary. The second reason for the more impressive snows off this
lake will be the multi-lake connection. This is even picked up by
the more course global models such as the ecmwf. Do not under-
estimate the significance of this upstream priming! Finally... The
plume will be nearly parallel to the axis of the lake... Maximizing
residency time for more efficient heat and moisture transport off
the lake surface. That all being said... This band will have the
potential to produce multiple feet of snow with hourly rates
exceeding 2 inches.

As for the lake erie based snows... The westerly flow will be more
orthogonal to the lake... So multiple bands will be more likely than
a single plume. While there will be a little upstream priming from
the southern part of lake michigan... This is not expected to be a
significant contributor. There will however be added orographic lift
from the chautauqua ridge. This should also help to broaden the area
of snow immediately downstream. While significant accumulations will
be possible off lake erie... Rates and totals should pale in
comparison to those of its sister lake to the north. Stay tuned.

Otherwise... It will be a colder day across the region with
temperatures generally in the teens being accompanied by some
flurries and nuisance light snow showers. Pops will be reduced from
continuity in areas outside of the above detailed lake snow areas.

For Friday night... The synoptic environment will be nearly identical
to the previous 12 hours with a stalled arctic boundary in the
vicinity of lake ontario. Meanwhile... While it will be a few degrees
colder aloft... The general thermal profile will be very similar as
well. The colder air will offer the potential for steeper lapse
rates and higher capping inversion... So if anything... Lake snows
could be more organized impressive. Mins Friday night will generally
be in the single digits.

Arctic high pressure over quebec Saturday morning is forecast to
push off to the east during the course of the day. This will combine
with a digging upstream shortwave to back the steering flow more to
the southwest. This in turn will allow the arctic front that had
been stalled over lake ontario to push back to the north... Removing
the focusing mechanism for strong low level convergence over lake
ontario and likely ending the moderate to heavy lake snow. The
backing of the winds will also break the enhancing upstream
connections. The result should be a weakening of the lake snows
while they push to the north within the backing flow. Elsewhere...

general subsidence should keep mainly fair weather in place.

The backing flow will continue through Saturday night while the
limiting inversion will lower. This should further weaken diminish
the scope of the lake snows.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
Below normal temperatures into february...

confidence remains off the charts that temperatures will average
below normal during this period... As a highly amplified pattern will
be in place across the continent. In fact... There is a strong
suggestion from many of the medium range ensembles that the blocky
pattern will be highlighted by the polar vortex settling as far
south as lake superior! This is some 500-1000 miles further south
than normal... Something that we only see a few times a decade.

In regards to the overall pattern though... An extremely robust
ridge will extend from baja california poleward to the east siberian
sea (north of siberia) while ridging will oscillate over greenland.

This coupled +pna and -nao pattern is a classic cold weather
scenario... One that has supported some of the coldest outbreaks on
record. The two ridges will essentially lock a huge closed low (ie
polar vortex) over eastern canada. As mentioned in previous
discussions... The coldest air in the northern hemisphere is
associated with this notorious feature. H85 temperatures are
forecast to be in the vcnty of -36c when the vortex is at its
southernmost extent next weekend (outside of this forecast period).

The combination of the expansive latitudinal west coast ridge and
'trapped' closed low will establish a prolonged cross polar flow
during this whole period... So this will ensure below normal temps.

Also... Be wary of using simple nao and pna indices as a guide. These
indices are often calculated at specific points... So if the
hemispheric feature does not coincide with the point... The values
shown could be very misleading. It is suggested to use the actual
500 700mb forecast charts to see where the features are placed. This
is certainly the case during this period as the west coast ridge is
some 500 miles too far west to be picked up by the pna indice... The
greenland block is oscillating between being oriented north-south
and east-west so the nao indice is somewhat misleading. Be careful.

As for the day to day weather... The next vigorous shortwave will
further amplify a trough over the upper great lakes on Sunday. The
corresponding surface reflection in the vcnty of the ontario-quebec
provincial border will push the next cold front across our forecast
area... And this will lead to scattered snow showers Sunday and
Sunday night. While it is a little early to be specific... There
should be a little lake effect that sets up in its wake overnight.

High pressure nosing southwards across the region should support
mainly dry weather on Monday... But will leave low chc pops in place
to account for timing differences between the various ensemble
members.

There is fairly good consensus in the packages that an organized
area of low pressure will then track across the lower great lakes
Monday night and Tuesday. Will carry likely pops for some snow for
this period. True arctic air will then pour across the region in the
wake of the storm for days immediately following this forecast
period.

Speaking of which... The above described longwave pattern should
support below... To much below... Normal temperatures right into the
start of february.

Aviation 10z Wednesday through Sunday
A 60 knot LLJ will cause low level wind shear into this morning
across western ny. Snow, changing to a wintry mix of snow, sleet and
freezing rain will change to freezing rain, before changing to rain
as temperatures rise. East of lake ontario kart, light snow will
begin this morning and transition to sleet and freezing rain through
the afternoon. As temperatures rise, freezing rain will transition
to rain across far western ny, kbuf,kiag,kjhw this morning and by
afternoon at kroc. Sn fzra will linger east of lake ontario through
the afternoon.

Vfr conditions will become MVFR ifr this morning and remain MVFR ifr
this afternoon.

Tonight, colder air will build into the region which will change
precipitation over to snow from west to east. Expect mainly MVFR ifr
conditions to last tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR to MVFR with scattered snow showers.

Friday and Saturday...VFR to MVFR in scattered to numerous snow
showers, with ifr possible in more numerous snow showers east of the
lakes.

Sunday... A chance of snow showers. MVFR likely.

Marine
Today a low pressure system will cut through the central great lakes
and towards quebec. A cold front from this system will drop across
the eastern great lakes later today. Small craft advisories are in
effect for most of the nearshore waters as outlined below. Winds may
briefly diminish Thursday, but then will increase in advance of the
next system which is likely to require more small craft headlines.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for
nyz006>008.

Winter weather advisory until 3 pm est this afternoon for
nyz004-005-013-014-021.

Winter weather advisory until 2 pm est this afternoon for
nyz001>003-010>012-019-020-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Thursday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est Thursday for
loz045.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Thursday for loz043-
044.

Synopsis... Sw
near term... Sw
short term... Rsh tma
long term... Rsh
aviation... Apffel hsk
marine... Apffel hsk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 29 mi33 min SSE 16 G 23 25°F 1019.5 hPa15°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 32 mi63 min S 11 G 15 31°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 34 mi33 min 31°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY32 mi69 minSE 65.00 miLight Snow24°F10°F55%1021.8 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
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Tide / Current Tables for
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.