Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Irondequoit, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 6:16PM Sunday October 22, 2017 2:14 AM EDT (06:14 UTC) Moonrise 9:07AMMoonset 7:19PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 131 Am Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
Overnight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers in the evening, then rain overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 59 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201710220900;;220792 FZUS51 KBUF 220532 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 131 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-220900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Irondequoit, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.27, -77.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbuf 220520
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
120 am edt Sun oct 22 2017

Synopsis
Beautiful indian summer weather will continue across the region
through at least late Monday afternoon... As high pressure along
the mid atlantic coast will supply us with conditions more typical
of late august or early september. A complex storm system will
then usher in a pronounced change in our weather... With a soaking
rain Monday night into Tuesday followed by much cooler temperatures
Wednesday and Thursday.

Near term through today
High pressure anchored along the mid atlantic coast will provide us
with a fine night across the region... As a deepening southerly flow
will help to hold our temperatures some 10 degrees higher than those
of early this morning. Mins will range from the 40s across the north
country and in the cooler SRN tier valleys to the lower to mid 50s
elsewhere.

Sunday will be an encore performance of Saturday's weather... As
sunshine through high clouds will combine with h85 temperatures in
the teens celsius to generate afternoon temperatures in the mid to
upper 70s in most areas. Perfect weather for getting out to view
some of our picturesque fall foliage.

Short term tonight through Tuesday night
Pattern change set to take place during the period as the mid level
ridge shifts east and a deepening long wave trough settles across
the northern tier of states and into the great lakes. Latest
operational model solutions continue to trend toward a slower onset
of precipitation. The development of a cutoff low over the gulf
coastal states will slow the eastward progression of the main upper
trough axis limiting the northward stream of gulf moisture until
very late Monday into Monday night. Will ramp up precipitation
probabilities starting late Monday afternoon in the west with
categorical by early Monday night, as negative tilted upper
trough swings moves into the great lakes and surface low moves
into the ohio valley. Due to the uncertainty of the interaction
with the cutoff low, confidence in the exact placement of the
heavier rain axis is low. Nonetheless, a rainfall event of an
inch or more is likely through Tuesday,
the longwave trough will settle into the great lakes ohio valley
Tuesday Tuesday night. Model solutions have trended deeper with this
feature. This will keep a chance likely showers in the forecast
through this time period with the highest probabilities on Tuesday.

The delayed onset of precipitation Monday will allow for another well
above normal day with most temperatures reaching the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Coldest air is not set to arrive until after Tuesday, so
likely looking at temperatures Tuesday in the mid to upper 60s
across eastern sections, with upper 50s to lower 60s across the west.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Wednesday through Thursday a sharp mid level trough will very slowly
cross the eastern great lakes and new england. Cool temperatures
aloft, wrap around moisture, and increasing lake induced instability
will produce scattered showers and some lake effect rain showers
both Wednesday and Thursday. The lake effect rain will likely remain
disorganized most of the time, with the placement of the mid level
low overhead yielding moderate boundary layer shear and short fetch
northwest flow.

The lake effect rain showers will end by Friday as high pressure
briefly builds over the eastern great lakes. Model differences
become more significant by Saturday, with the GFS being faster than
the ECMWF with the next system. Given the model differences, have
just gone with a low chance of rain showers for next Saturday.

Temperatures will bottom out Wednesday and Thursday as 850mb temps
drop to around 0c. This will support highs in the 50s in most areas,
with higher terrain possibly staying in the upper 40s if enough
cloud cover persists. Temperatures will begin to warm by Friday and
Saturday as southwest flow increases ahead of the next system. This
warming trend will be temporary however.

Looking a little farther ahead, the overall pattern evolution over
the next two weeks will be for a steady turn towards cooler weather
as a longwave trough becomes established over central and eastern
north america. This pattern change will be in part driven by the
poleward movement of the remnants of typhoon lan in the western
pacific by the middle of next week. The resulting influx of
latent sensible heat and vorticity into the mid latitude westerlies
will strongly amplify the pacific wavetrain, which in turn will
drive amplification downstream into north america. By the middle of
next week, a strong aleutian low will force a ridge to build over
the gulf of alaska, which will drift to the west coast of north
america by next weekend. This western ridge is forecast to last into
the first week of november, and aid in forcing a deep longwave
trough over central and eastern north america. This will bring more
fall like weather for the last week of october, and the possibility
of the first wintry weather during the first week of november. Stay
tuned.

Aviation 05z Sunday through Thursday
For the 06z tafsVFR flight conditions are found and these flight
conditions are expected to continue through the TAF package... With
light winds.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR.

Monday night and Tuesday... MVFR ifr with occasional rain.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers.

Marine
High pressure along the mid atlantic coast will keep generally light
winds and negligible waves in place across the lower great lakes
through the remainder of the weekend.

Winds and waves will remain well below small craft advisory levels
on Monday as a complex storm system will take shape over the ohio
valley. It will become quite unsettled Monday night into Tuesday
though... As notably stronger winds will accompany the passage
of the deepening storm system. Small craft advisories can be
expected from this event.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jjr rsh
near term... Jjr rsh
short term... Tma
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Thomas
marine... Rsh


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 0 mi74 min SSW 7 G 8.9 61°F 1025.1 hPa (+0.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 1 mi44 min 58°F 1024.2 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 26 mi84 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 62°F 60°F1024.1 hPa (+0.0)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 59 mi44 min SSE 8 G 12 58°F 1024.7 hPa45°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
Last
24hr
S10
S11
S11
S10
S9
G12
S11
S11
S11
S10
S8
S8
SW3
G6
NW4
NW2
NE1
NE4
--
S3
S5
S7
S9
S8
SE10
G13
SE11
1 day
ago
W12
G15
W13
G17
NW14
W16
NW16
G20
NW16
G21
NW14
G18
NW14
NW10
W9
W12
W9
W10
W10
G15
W7
W4
S4
S5
S7
S8
S9
S9
S9
S10
2 days
ago
S10
G13
S9
G12
S10
S11
G15
S13
G16
S11
G22
S14
G19
S14
G19
S15
G20
SW9
G17
W14
G17
W8
G12
W13
G19
W17
G21
W14
G21
W12
G16
W14
G20
W13
G17
W16
W15
G20
W17

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY11 mi20 minSSW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy49°F46°F90%1024.9 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
Last 24hrSW4SW5SW7SW7SW7SW7SW6SW7SW11SW9S6SW4W3SW5CalmSE3CalmCalmW3SW4SW5SW5SW3SW3
1 day agoW3W5W4W6W6W5SW6W74NW4SW6W4W6SW5W8SW5SW3CalmCalmCalmSW4SW5SW3SW4
2 days agoSW11SW12
G21
SW12
G20
SW12SW12SW9SW11SW11SW13
G18
SW9SW19
G24
W16
G23
W18
G27
W17
G31
W18
G27
W13
G24
W11
G21
W9W9W9W9W7W5W4

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (2,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.