Tuesday, January22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Irondequoit, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 5:10PM Tuesday January 22, 2019 8:05 AM EST (13:05 UTC) Moonrise 7:10PMMoonset 8:46AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 923 Pm Est Mon Jan 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am est Tuesday...
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Scattered snow showers late this evening, then scattered flurries after midnight. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming south. Snow overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Snow and rain in the morning, then rain in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Rain in the evening, then snow and rain showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Scattered snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 35 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201901221015;;726133 FZUS51 KBUF 220223 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 923 PM EST Mon Jan 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-221015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Irondequoit, NY
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location: 43.27, -77.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 221203
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
703 am est Tue jan 22 2019

Synopsis
A cold morning will give way to increasing clouds and not as cold
temperatures this afternoon. A storm system will near our region
tonight and milder air will continue to push northward resulting in
precipitation associated with this storm late tonight and early
Wednesday to fall as a wintry mix before changing to plain rain for
a short period of time Wednesday. Another plume of colder air will
follow this system through the end of the week with temperatures
falling back to well below normal.

Near term through tonight
Surface high pressure is over the region this morning, providing
for light winds... And where skies are clear... Very cold
temperatures. Lake clouds have hung on through the night and
areas closer to the lakes are not as cold... With some areas
several degrees above zero.

Will drop the remaining wind chill headlines east of lake
ontario. Though current temperatures are still well below
zero... And in some areas near -30f, the nearing surface high
pressure has brought winds to around 5 mph or less for
most... Thereby limiting the wind chill. These bitterly cold
temperatures will rise above zero through the remaining morning
hours.

This surface high will cross the region this morning, with a light
southerly flow aloft developing behind the high pressure feature
this afternoon. This southerly flow will commence a warming trend,
with afternoon temperatures more bearable than this morning... With
temperatures in the 20s across wny, and teens east of lake ontario.

A surface low that is over ok this morning will cut through the
central great lakes region. Ahead of this low, a strong LLJ will
develop and peak at 80 knots Wednesday across our region.

Convergence on the leading edge of this llj, along with strong
isentropic lift between 850 and 650 hpa will provide lift for
precipitation to form.

Initially tonight will be dry with a wealth of dry air below 700
hpa, and just some thickening mid and high level clouds. As the
surface low nears the central great lakes, and moisture increases in
the lower levels a period of light snow is likely to develop around
midnight or thereafter. The dendritic snow growth zone will be
elevated, just above this isentropic upglide layer and will likely
provide for a seeder feeder mechanism for snow to occur.

Continued warming in the lower layers will bring in sleet to the
precipitation type... With potentially some freezing rain across far
western sites by the end of the period. Overall snow accumulation
will be an inch or less.

There is still uncertainty as to how fast and how much we warm
aloft. For now we will hold off on issuing any headlines and wait
for increased confidence of thermal profiles that will dictate the
precipitation type. Of note, the recent extreme cold spell and
prospects of untreated roads may elevate the freezing rain
potential... With freezing rain on frozen ground surfaces that will
lag behind in warming.

Short term Wednesday through Friday night
Period of mixed snow, sleet and freezing rain will continue into
Wednesday morning. Greatest concern for travel impacts and slick
roads should be interior portions of the southern tier and east of
the genesee valley where surface or near surface conditions will
remain colder for a longer period into midday Wednesday. Milder air
will continue to advect northward through the day Wednesday
eventually transitioning precipitation to all rain even across the
north country. Winds will be gusty Wednesday and likely into
Wednesday night with southerly then southwesterly gusts to 40 mph
possible. Some decent liquid equivalents are possible given good
moisture transport upwards of a half inch. This could cause some
ponding of water on roads into Wednesday night especially
considering expected melting snow.

Deeper moisture shifts eastward Wednesday night as initial cold
front crosses the region. Rain showers along and ahead of the front
will end as a brief period of wet snow or flurries as cold air
deepens overnight. Any snow accumulations are expected to be
minimal, although a few inches will be possible over the tug hill.

Models persist in showing a deep trough with frigid air pushing into
the region Thursday night through Friday night. Models have been
fairly consistent in showing 850 mb temperature dropping down to
near -20c or colder by late Friday. This would lead to scattered
snow showers over our region with lake enhanced snows developing
east of both lakes. The lake effect could become significant as the
cold air deepens and a solid westerly flow becomes established,
especially around the tug hill area from Friday into Friday night.

Long term Saturday through Monday
Confidence is off the charts that temperatures will average below
normal during this period... As a highly amplified pattern will be in
place across the continent. A very staunch ridge centered off the
west coast will define a +pna pattern that will be coupled with a
persistent ridge over greenland... A classic cold weather pattern.

The pair of ridges will lock an expansive closed low over eastern
canada... Part of which will include the polar vortex. This notorious
feature is forecast to push at least 500 miles further south than
usual... Possibly settling between lake superior and james bay. The
coldest air in the northern hemisphere will not only be on this side
of the pole... But because of this pattern it could conceivably be on
this side of james bay! This pool of glacial air will also be
supported by a persistent cross polar flow... Which will not only
prevent the airmass from modifying... But will also serve to keep it
'charged'.

As for the day to day weather... A cold southwesterly flow on
Saturday will supported some lake snows northeast of both lakes.

Otherwise... General subsidence should keep the bulk of the region
pcpn free with MAX temps generally in the teens.

A difficult to time clipper will then race by to our north Saturday
night or Sunday. This will keep scattered snow showers in place
while also introducing the next round of arctic air. Will have to
broad brush the pops given the 12 hour difference in the timing
between the various ensembles.

A more significant storm system is then expected to impact the great
lakes on Monday. There is a very large spread in solutions though
between the various medium range packages... So will have to continue
to broad brush the pops with chc pops for snow.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
For the 12z tafs a deck of MVFR ceilings continue as cold air
over the still open lake waters is producing strato cumulus, now
mainly south and then southeast of lake ontario. High pressure
bearing down upon the region will bring drier air, diminishing
the lake clouds... And also bringing a period of calm winds.

Today winds will shift to southerly, and remain light through the
day behind the departing surface high.VFR flight conditions will be
found through the afternoon hours. Mid and high level clouds will
begin to increase this afternoon ahead of the next storm system.

Ahead of this storm system a 60 knot LLJ will bring some concerns
for llws, mainly across the so. Tier where winds of 40 knots will be
near 2k feet.

Precipitation will begin to increase late tonight, after 06z and as
a wintry mix. Flight conditions will lower to ifr MVFR the last few
hours of Tuesday night.

Outlook...

Wednesday... MVFR ifr in wintry mix changing to mainly rain.

Thursday...VFR to MVFR with scattered snow showers.

Friday and Saturday...VFR to MVFR in scattered to numerous snow
showers, with ifr possible in more numerous snow showers east of the
lakes.

Marine
With surface high pressure crossing the lakes today, winds and waves
will be well below advisory thresholds... And will cancel the present
sca.

Tonight and Wednesday a low pressure system will cut through the
central great lakes and towards quebec. A cold front from this
system will drop across the eastern great lakes later Wednesday.

Initial southerly flow ahead of the system may bring waves to near 4
feet on lake ontario near the saint lawrence river, with the more
widespread waves of 4 feet or greater after the cold front passage
on a westerly flow late Wednesday and through Thursday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Thomas
short term... Tma
long term... Rsh
aviation... Thomas
marine... Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 0 mi66 min WSW 7 G 9.9 13°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 1 mi54 min 11°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 59 mi54 min S 6 G 7 2°F 1038 hPa-4°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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G31

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY11 mi72 minWSW 36.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist9°F6°F88%1038.9 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN9N10NW14NW10NW13NW10NW15
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2 days agoE9E10E10E11E11E14NE15NE14
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NE14E11E13E12NE10E7NE16
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NE15NE13NE15NE19
G25
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N14N14N13N12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.