Sunday, December17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Irondequoit, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 4:38PM Sunday December 17, 2017 8:36 AM EST (13:36 UTC) Moonrise 6:46AMMoonset 4:33PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 639 Am Est Sun Dec 17 2017
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Mostly Sunny this morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots diminishing to less than 10 knots. Rain and snow showers likely in the morning, then rain showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers during the day, then lake effect rain and snow showers Tuesday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Lake effect snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Wednesday night. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of snow showers Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 38 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201712171615;;024196 FZUS51 KBUF 171139 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 639 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-171615-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Irondequoit, NY
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location: 43.27, -77.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 171152
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
652 am est Sun dec 17 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will cross the region tonight and Sunday, with
dry weather for the second half of the weekend. Temperatures
will warm above freezing Monday as a warm front lifts across the
region, bringing a chance for rain and snow showers into
Tuesday before a cold front sweeps across the lower great lakes
Tuesday night, bringing a return to more wintry conditions by
Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
Surface analysis this morning shows high pressure centered south of
james bay along the ontario quebec border, with a ridge extending
south into new york. While this has kept skies mostly clear across
the north country overnight, allowing temperatures to plunge below
zero in some locales, a band of lower clouds extending from michigan
across southern ontario and western new york has kept the mercury
from dropping much more than a couple of degrees overnight. This
band of clouds is associated with a stalled out frontal boundary
draped across the region from northern il to north-central pa nj.

The aforementioned frontal boundary will gradually creep
northeastward as a warm front today in response to backing flow
associated with an upper level disturbance ejecting out of the
southern plains. This will in turn push the band of low clouds
farther northeast across the forecast area, ensuring a rather gloomy
day for most areas south of lake ontario, though large scale
subsidence associated with broad ridging across the region will keep
conditions dry. The cloudy skies will keep temperatures on the cool
side and have backed off highs for today by a few degrees, going
with mid 20s for much of the thruway corridor, though areas near the
pa border may climb just above freezing by late in the day as the
warm front edges towards the border. Meanwhile, while it will remain
sunny for most of the day across the north country, the area will
remain far enough back into the cold air that highs will only top
out in the upper teens.

Surface high pressure will move off to our east tonight, while the
warm frontal boundary continues to edge northeast into the forecast
area. A weak clipper approaching the forecast area from the upper
great lakes late tonight will interact with this boundary, perhaps
producing enough lift to generate some light snow by daybreak across
the northern half of the forecast area, particularly across the
north country, but activity looks to be poorly organized at this
time. The combination of increased cloud cover and the warm front
will actually cause temperatures to warm as we move through the
night, with readings climbing into the low 30s across western ny,
and into the low to mid 20s in the north country.

Short term Monday through Wednesday night
Monday and Tuesday will bring a short warm up to western and central
ny after experiencing more than 10 days with below normal
temperatures. The above normal temps (reaching into the u30s l40s
Monday and Tuesday) will come in the wake of a warm front and ahead
of a quasi-zonal flow at 500mb. A leading shallow shortwave trough
passing over the great lakes on Monday is forecast to be followed by
a broad but deepening trough on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Each of
these synoptic features will be accompanied by modified pacific
moisture resulting in continued chance pops for rain and snow
showers at times although plenty of drytime should also be expected.

An exception will be found for the eastern lake ontario and niagara
frontier regions where models indicate better forcing and moisture
will combine for likely pops. Tuesday night or early Wednesday
morning, a cold front is forecast to cross our region supported by
the digging mid-level trough. These features will drive higher pops
for lake-enhanced rain showers mixing with and changing to lake
effect snow showers. As cold air deepens overnight, temps will dip
back into the 20s overnight.

Lake effect snows are still expected to develop Tuesday night
through Wednesday behind the cold front. Northwest cold air
advection is forecast to drop 850mb temps to around -12 -14c. This
flow would impact locations south southeast of the lakes with lake
effect snow with the best organized band most likely for lake
ontario. Outside of the lake effect, chance slight chance pops
remain in between the lake effect areas to cover for stray snow
showers in weaker lake streamers south of the lakes. Have lingered
chance pops for snow showers south of the lakes into Wednesday. Then
expect some winding down, first on lake erie then on lake ontario,
as surface-based ridging and drier air build north into the region.

Still too early for forecast snowfall with this potential mid-week
event but lake induced equilibrium levels per GFS bufkit rise over
10kft east of lake ontario which may bring a few hours of
significant snow accum Wednesday morning. Temperatures will have
returned to a little below average with highs mainly in the upper
20s to lower 30s on Wednesday followed by a cold night with lows
ranging from the near single digits above freezing to lower 20s
Wednesday night.

Long term Thursday through Saturday
Dry weather is still expected Thursday with a narrow progressive
surface high shifting over the eastern great lakes. The main focus
for weather late week into next weekend will be on what 00z models
are showing as a strengthening low pressure system crossing the
great lakes just west of new york. Deep southerly flow and moisture
forced on the nose of a leading low level jet would likely bring
back warmer temps and perhaps some mixed wintry precipitation
changing to plain rain. Likely pops continue in the forecast for
Friday with the global models in good agreement in tracking this
low. While precip is most likely to start as some snow before
switching to plain rain, 00z GFS temp profiles show a warm nose may
override sub-freezing surface temps bringing a threat of perhaps
freezing rain Thursday night and Friday morning until surface temps
warm above freezing. Have included chance for snow fzra where warm
nose temps exceeded +1c. Not expecting any significant damaging
winds with this system at this time as the low level jet will remain
decoupled above the surface in warm advection. The storm center will
past west and north of new york where an associated cold front
should shift east across our forecast area Saturday. Cold air should
then return behind the front. Highs in the 30s Thursday should reach
into the 40s Friday with rain then dip back down into the 30s behind
the front Saturday. Overnight temps coldest Thursday morning will
become more mild by Saturday morning ahead of the cold front.

Looking further down the road... Yesterdays medium to long range
guidance is looking very interesting for the period from christmas
to new years. For a few model runs now... This longer range guidance
has been hinting at a return to notably colder weather for the great
lakes region. A closed low over siberia is forecast to break down in
the coming days with a chunk of its energy being ejected out across
the kamchatka peninsula and northern reaches of the pacific ocean.

Eventually... This very robust bundle of mid level energy is forecast
to help carve out a full latitude trough over the heart of north
america. While highly anomalous ridging off the west coast would
extend from 20n all the way to the pole... A large portion 0f the
polar vortex would settle south to northern ontario. This newly
phased pattern would not only include a cross polar flow... But more
importantly would allow h85 temps of <-30c within the vortex to make
their way across the northern plains.

While this long range forecast would place the coldest air of this
outbreak over the plains states... The air would eventually make its
way to the ohio valley. Climatologically... This is exactly where it
should be to support significant southwest flow lake effect for our
region. This would also come at a time (between christmas and new
years) when impactful southwest flow lake storms seem to be most
common. In a nutshell... The week or so from christmas to new years
should feature colder than normal weather with the hint for
substantial lake snows. Stay tuned.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
Low-level moisture associated with a slow-moving frontal boundary
over northern oh pa remains trapped underneath a subsidence
inversion associated with surface mid-level ridging moving across
the region this morning is producing ifr lifr conditions in the
southern tier, including kjhw. Conditions should gradually improve,
at least to MVFR, this afternoon, however ifr conditions will likely
return tonight, as the frontal boundary and moisture will remain in
the area. Elsewhere, expect currentVFR CIGS to fall into MVFR
territory after 18-00z as the frontal boundary and associated
moisture gradually lifts northeastward across the forecast area.

Outlook...

Monday... Ifr MVFR with a chance for rain and snow showers.

Tuesday... Ifr MVFR with rain likely.

Wednesday... Ifr in lake effect snow likely SE of the lakes, MVFRVFR
with a chance of snow elsewhere. Thursday... MainlyVFR.

Friday...VFR MVFR with a chance for rain or snow showers.

Marine
Generally light northeasterly winds will give way to freshening
southwest winds on lake erie tonight as a warm front slowly moves
northeast into the lower great lakes and a weak clipper approaches
the region. Winds will flirt with small craft advisory criteria for
a brief time tonight as the disturbance passes by, but should remain
just below advisory levels.

Southwesterlies will strengthen further Monday night however, as a
deep area of low pressure centered well to our north crosses hudson
bay. The resulting tightening of the pressure gradient across our
region should push winds into SCA territory across many zones Monday
night into Tuesday, with winds staying brisk as they veer to the
northwest with a passing cold front Tuesday night.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Wood
near term... Wood
short term... Smith
long term... Rsh smith
aviation... Wood
marine... Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 0 mi36 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 19°F 1027.1 hPa (+1.4)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 1 mi48 min 10°F 1026.6 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 59 mi48 min SE 4.1 G 7 16°F 1026.2 hPa13°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY11 mi42 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy12°F10°F95%1027.1 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7W8W10W5N8N5NW4W5NW4W5W5W4W3NW3CalmW3W3W3CalmCalmN4CalmW3Calm
1 day agoSW9SW7SW9SW9S7S10SW11SW6SW8SW11SW10SW13SW10SW11W14W10W10W14W16W13W14W8W9W8
2 days agoNW11NW10NW12
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W11W11W9W7W10W9SW7SW6SW6SW6SW8SW7SW6SW6SW5CalmSW4SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.