Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 2:52 PM   Moonset 3:48 AM

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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 345 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Today - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Showers from late morning on. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tonight - West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. Saturday night - West winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. Sunday - West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers during the day, then showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 192312 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 712 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will exit to the east of the area this evening, with rain showers ending from west to east. Another trough will pass over the eastern Great Lakes Saturday with scattered showers. A few of these showers may produce some small hail or graupel. Dry weather will return Sunday through much of Tuesday as high pressure builds east across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic. Cool temperatures and gusty winds this weekend will give way to a warming trend early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
At 7 p.m. radar imagery shows the tail end of a line of showers east of Lake Ontario. Steady showers will exit to the east during the next couple hours. A weaker secondary cold front and mid level trough will cross Western NY this evening, and may produce a few spotty light showers east/northeast of Lake Erie.
This boundary will cross the eastern Lake Ontario region overnight, and may support a few more scattered light showers.
Ongoing cold advection will drop temperatures back into the low 40s in most locations, with mid to upper 30s across higher terrain.

Saturday, a sharp mid level trough will move from the central Great Lakes in the morning to western New England by evening, with a strong vorticity maxima crossing the eastern Great Lakes in the afternoon. An associated cold front will cross the region in the afternoon. While forcing will be strong with this feature, it will be moisture starved.

Cold air aloft will contribute to strong low/mid level lapse rates with daytime heating and support diurnal showers from late morning through early evening. Expect a classic lake breeze boundary and stable lake shadow configuration to the showers Saturday. The most concentrated band of showers will likely be from the Niagara Frontier extending ESE into the western Finger Lakes where enhanced and channeled WSW flow off Lake Erie converges with WNW flow found just south of Lake Ontario. The cold air aloft and steep lapse rates suggest a few of these showers may contain graupel or small hail, even in the absence of thunder. Meanwhile, stable lake shadows over and east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will keep shower chances lower, and the amount of sunshine higher for areas east of the lakes.

Temperatures Saturday will run close to 10 degrees below average, with highs ranging from the upper 40s for lower elevations to the low to mid 40s across higher terrain. It will be quite breezy again as well, with gusts of 25-35 mph across the area.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Broad mid-level troughing across the lower Great Lakes and the Northeast Saturday night will allow a shortwave trough to round the base of the trough Sunday. The passage of the shortwave will pull the longwave trough northeast, allowing for mid-level ridging to spread across the Great Lakes.

Despite the deep cyclonic flow overhead, expansive high pressure centered over the Central Plains and expanding east across the Ohio Valley will support mainly dry weather throughout the weekend into the start of next week. However, with the passage of the shortwave and the longwave trough axis aloft, a couple of moisture starved cold fronts will push southwards across the region Saturday night and then Sunday night. While both of these fronts will be precipitation free, cold air will advect into the region supporting below normal temperatures Sunday and Monday. Highs Sunday and Monday will range in the 40s across the North Country and upper 40s to low 50s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Soggy weather will return to the forecast as we move further into the workweek, with a cooler airmass wrapping back into the region leading to a couple of days of temperatures running a few degrees below normal.

High pressure will shrink off the eastern seaboard Tuesday as a positively tilted shortwave pivots out south-central Canada and into the northern Plains/upper Midwest region. As this feature moves east into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night, it will partially phase with a deeper closed low wobbling about the vicinity of Hudson Bay.
This will cause the southern trough to dig southward and progressively become more negatively tilted as it marches east though Wednesday. Concurrent broad surface cyclogenesis will lead to an elongated area of low pressure that will extend from the Midwest all the way northeast across Quebec. Deep southerly flow out ahead of the system's main cold front will allow it to tap into a plume of GOMEX based moisture, with a subsequent wide swath of rain showers plowing through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Cooler air will filter into the region behind the system, though strong high pressure building across the Great Lakes should taper off the potential for wrap-around precipitation fairly quick. With the loss of sunlight and cooler air moving in, rain could briefly mix with wet snow across the Tug Hill Wednesday night before ending. Mainly dry weather and clearer skies are then expected Wednesday night through Friday.

Long range guidance can be fairly sensitive to these types of partial phasing setups, which can quickly lead to poor model consensus and large run-to-run jumps in projected solutions. In this case, the latest from the ECMWF/CMCNH are in decent agreement are less bullish on the amount of phasing between the northern and southern stream waves, in stark contrast to the operational GFS which has consistently been more aggressive in this regard. Have leaned on the former which show a slower arrival time of precip Tuesday afternoon and evening. Both operational models advertise areawide dry weather until rain showers move into WNY after sunset, though have stayed close to NBM and left Chc PoPs for Tue afternoon as there remains uncertainty in the exact timing at this range. Less phasing of the two systems also implies the deeper cold air staying confined to the north in Canada, with just seasonable cool advection in the wake of the system. Should this favored trend hold, the already tenuous potential for wet snow on the backside of the system will be minimized even more.

In regards to sfc temps...Tuesday should be on the mild side in the upper 50s and low 60s as the area sits within the warm sector of the incoming system. Wednesday through Thursday will then be much cooler with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Owed to good radiational cooling conditions, temps Wednesday night will be quite chilly, bottoming out in the upper 20s to low 30s. High pressure moving east of the region should then initiate a warming trend by late next week.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Lingering showers and MVFR cigs east of Lake Ontario will exit to the east through this evening. Tonight, a secondary cold front may produce a few more spotty light showers, but VFR will prevail. Winds will diminish tonight.

Saturday, a sharp mid level trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes. This will combine with steep low/mid level lapse rates to produce scattered showers from late morning through early evening.
The most concentrated area of showers will likely be found from the Niagara Frontier (near KIAG and KBUF) ESE into the western Finger Lakes where lake breeze convergence maximizes. A few of these showers may contain some small hail and/or graupel given the cold air aloft. VFR will prevail, but any heavier showers may contain brief CIG/VSBY restrictions.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers later in the afternoon.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...Areas of MVFR with showers.

MARINE
A cold front will move east of the area this evening. A brief period of gusty WSW winds in the wake of the cold front will produce Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and the eastern portion of Lake Ontario through this evening before winds diminish overnight.

Another trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes Saturday, producing another round of solid westerly flow Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Winds will temporarily diminish again Saturday night, then increase again Sunday with another period of solid westerly flow Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Overall, a poor weekend for boating with chilly temperatures, strong winds, and high waves much of the time.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for LOZ044-045.

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