Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Irondequoit, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 8:04PM Monday August 21, 2017 1:49 PM EDT (17:49 UTC) Moonrise 5:04AMMoonset 7:09PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 359 Am Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
Today..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mainly clear in the evening...then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning...then showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some Thunderstorms may be severe with strong winds in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Showers likely in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. A chance of waterspouts during the day. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 70 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201708211515;;711900 FZUS51 KBUF 210759 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 359 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-211515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Irondequoit, NY
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location: 43.27, -77.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 211401
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1001 am edt Mon aug 21 2017

Synopsis
Return flow developing between a surface high off the mid-atlantic
and the next approaching low pressure system will build heat and
humidity today, and especially Tuesday. A strong cold front will
cross the region late Tuesday, and may be accompanied by strong to
severe thunderstorms. The end of the week into the weekend will have
a touch of fall in the air as a sprawling canadian high pressure
builds in cooler and drier air.

Near term through tonight
A weak mid-level wave is helping to force an area of showers and
thunderstorms which extend across the southern tier. These will
move eastward following the motion of the shortwave, with a
gradual weakening trend expected through late morning as the
move into slightly drier boundary layer air. Until then, expect
very localized heavy rainfall with a quick inch in a few spots.

As the shortwave tracks eastward today, a few more widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms may develop inland from the lake breezes
with diurnal heating this afternoon. The most likely locations to
see some afternoon cumulus clouds and some scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be in the interior southern tier to the finger
lakes, mainly south of rochester. Thus, for those interested in
viewing the partial solar eclipse this afternoon, the best view will
most certainly be across the lake plains where the lake breeze will
mitigate any cloud cover. However, for the interior southern tier
and finger lakes, despite more cloud cover, periodic breaks and
movement of any showers will likely provide an opportunity to view
the eclipse, although it may prove more challenging.

The warmer air building into the region on the southerly return flow
will push 850 mb temperatures to around +16 +17c this afternoon.

Thus, high temperatures will be solidly in the 80s today. The
coolest readings will be in the lake shadows, with low to mid 80s,
while the warmest readings will be in the genesee valley where
downsloping will push highs into the upper 80s. Knocked high
temperatures back about a degree for the day to account partial loss
of solar isolation with the eclipse, and a couple degrees cooler
during the peak of the eclipse in the early afternoon, with
temperatures rebounding quickly thereafter.

Tonight, diurnal cumulus and isolated scattered showers and
thunderstorms will diminish with the combined loss of heating and
weak subsidence in the wake of the shortwave passage. However, mid
and high level cloud cover will increase ahead of a deepening low
pressure system over the upper great lakes. A strengthening low-level
jet will feed warmer, moisture rich air into the area on the deep
southwesterly flow ahead of the low pressure system. This will keep
overnight temperatures quite warm with most locations not falling
out of the 70s overnight, and also quite muggy as dew points rise
into the upper 60s to the near the 70 degree mark by early Tuesday
morning.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
The main period of interest in the coming week will be Tuesday as a
sharp mid level trough and associated strong cold front approach the
region. The actual surface cold front will not cross the region
until later Tuesday night, but as is almost always the case in the
warm season, most of the convection will develop along the pre-
frontal trough and lake breeze boundaries. Weak ascent and
increasing moisture will overspread the area during the morning,
which may produce a few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
with much of the time rain free.

During the afternoon large scale ascent will increase as dpva
overspreads the area ahead of the sharpening mid level trough. Low
level convergence will maximize as the pre-frontal trough interacts
with a lake erie aided boundary, marking the edge of the enhanced sw
flow extending over and northeast of lake erie from weaker, slightly
backed winds to the south and east. Expect this boundary to provide
the focus for initial storm development over the western southern
tier just inland from the lake by early to mid afternoon. These
storms will then quickly expand and grow upscale to the northeast,
with a broken line of convection racing across much of the area
through early evening. High resolution convective allowing model
guidance such as the 3km NAM and wrf-arw support this evolution.

Model guidance remains consistent in developing moderate instability
inland from lake influences, with MLCAPE of around 1500j kg
superimposed on around 40 knots of deep layer 0-6km shear. The
severe weather parameter phase space combined with increasing
synoptic scale forcing suggest storms will grow upscale into bowing
line segments and clusters with attendant risk of damaging winds.

The risk of large hail is lower with less than ideal mid level lapse
rates, but a few of the initial robust cores may contain marginal
hail before storms become linear. Pwat approaches 2 inches, but
storm motion will be very fast and greatly limit any flood potential.

In addition to the convective potential, it will become quite windy
in general on Tuesday as the 40 knot low level jet partially mixes
to the surface. The strongest winds will be found northeast of lake
erie across the niagara frontier, with gusts of around 40 mph
likely.

Pre-frontal trough convection will exit into central and eastern ny
during the early evening. A few more showers and possibly a
thunderstorm may cross the area during the evening and early
overnight with the actual cold front, but this should be much weaker
than the initial round. Subsidence and drying will bring at least
partial clearing to many areas from northwest to southeast for
awhile Tuesday night before lake effect clouds increase towards
Wednesday morning.

On Wednesday a broad longwave trough will become established from
the great lakes to new england, with a secondary weak cold front
crossing the area during the late afternoon and evening. Any morning
sunshine will fade during the afternoon with the approach of the
secondary cold front and continued increase in lake effect and
upslope clouds. Increasing moisture and convergence over the lakes
may allow for a few lake enhanced showers during the afternoon and
evening. A few lake enhanced showers may continue into Wednesday
night east and southeast of the lakes, however short fetch NW flow
and a fairly dry synoptic scale background will keep this limited.

Tuesday will be the last very warm and humid day for quite some
time. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s in many locations, with
some upper 80s possible from the genesee valley into central ny.

Dewpoints will be near 70, providing a very muggy feel. Much cooler
and less humid air will arrive Wednesday, with highs in the lower
70s on the lake plains and upper 60s for higher terrain.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
A seasonably deep longwave trough, on the order of 1 to 2 standard
deviations below normal will become established for the second half
of the week over the great lakes and northeast, bringing a stretch
of below normal temperatures to our region. Cyclonic flow across the
lakes and associated cold air aloft along with some shortwave energy
moving through will support a good deal of lake effect and upslope
clouds, and possibly even a few scattered showers at times on
Thursday. The airmass is plenty cold enough with 850 mb temperatures
falling to near +6c for lake effect rain, but short northwest fetch
and relatively dry synoptic scale background should keep this
limited. Surface high pressure will begin to build into the area by
Thursday night and Friday and should bring an end to any scattered
lake showers.

Temperatures will bottom out on Thursday and Friday when highs may
not get out of the 60s even at lower elevations. Lows will be well
down into the 50s on the lake plains and 40s well inland for several
nights, bringing an early taste of fall to the region. Next weekend
high pressure will settle directly overhead. This should provide a
dry and sunny weekend with highs back into the 70s as the airmass
slowly modifies.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
Mainly widespreadVFR conditions will prevail today. Diurnal cumulus
will develop inland from the lake breezes this afternoon across the
interior southern tier and finger lakes with widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms. However, the TAF sites should all
remain shadowed by the lakes keeping fair weather in place.

ExpectVFR conditions to continue tonight with an increasing
mid-level southwesterly flow late in the night.

Outlook...

Tuesday... MainlyVFR in the morning, then showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon and night with MVFR ifr
conditions. Some storms may contain strong winds.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers.

Friday...VFR.

Marine
Lighter southerly flow today and tonight will direct any waves
mainly toward canadian waters. Then a strong cold front will cross
the region Tuesday which will eventually require small craft
advisory headlines that may linger through Wednesday or Wednesday
night. A few strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are also
possible Tuesday ahead of the cold front.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for nyz007.

Lakeshore flood watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
evening for nyz004>006.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Church
near term... Apffel church
short term... Hitchcock
long term... Hitchcock tma
aviation... Apffel church
marine... Church


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 0 mi50 min NNE 6 G 8 78°F 1019.6 hPa (-1.1)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 1 mi50 min 78°F 1018.9 hPa (-0.9)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 26 mi60 min SW 1.9 G 3.9 74°F 73°F1 ft1018.9 hPa (-0.5)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 59 mi50 min WNW 6 G 7 81°F 1018.8 hPa (-1.0)65°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY11 mi56 minSSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F66°F60%1019.2 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10W8W14W9SW11W11SW4SW3SW5SW4SW5SW4SW6SW6SW6SW5SW7SW5SW7SW10SW9SW6SW5S6
1 day agoW14W13SW15
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2 days agoW10W9W16
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.