Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greece, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 5:07PM Friday January 19, 2018 12:45 AM EST (05:45 UTC) Moonrise 9:06AMMoonset 7:45PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 925 Pm Est Thu Jan 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late Saturday night...
Overnight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Scattered snow showers in the morning. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny in the morning, then becoming cloudy. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers Sunday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 35 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201801191015;;659197 FZUS51 KBUF 190225 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 925 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-191015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greece, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.29, -77.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbuf 190221
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
921 pm est Thu jan 18 2018

Synopsis
The cold weather and areas of lake snows from the past several days
will give way to a pronounced warming trend... One that will begin on
Friday. High pressure settling off the coast of the carolinas will
pump progressively milder air into our region during the course of
the weekend so that temperatures will finally push into the 40s.

Near term through Friday
As we move through tonight... A rather well-defined shortwave
will weaken while quickly rippling eastward across our region.

The brief boost in moisture and lift provided by this passing
feature will bring some short-lived scattered snow showers to
areas from roughly about the new york state thruway northward.

As for the lake snows... Warm advection has already shut down the
snow off lake erie and has seriously weakened the snows to the east
of lake ontario. While the very weak lake snows near the tug hill
should flare back up for a few hours towards daybreak as a result of
the passing shortwave... The winter weather advisory has been
discontinued as additional snowfall should only be an inch or two.

On Friday... Heights will rebound across our region in the wake of
the shortwave... And this in concert with continued steady low level
warm air advection will help to steadily wear down the lake ontario
lake snows... With these producing another inch or so of accumulation
before finally disintegrating into some leftover scattered snow
showers. Otherwise the day will be largely dry with morning clouds
giving way to some partial sunshine south of lake ontario... With the
aforementioned warm air advection also helping to boost temperatures
back into the lower to mid 30s in most places... And possibly even to
the upper 30s across interior portions of the genesee valley.

Short term Friday night through Monday night
Friday evening there may still be a few light lake effect snow
showers east of lake ontario. These will quickly end during the
evening as inversion heights drop below 4k feet and low level
moisture is stripped away as a warm front moves northeast across
the area. Otherwise it will be dry Friday night, with more in
the way of clouds near the canadian border in closer proximity
to the retreating warm front, and more clearing near the pa
state line. It will become quite windy again with a tight
pressure gradient and a 50+ knot low level jet crossing the
area. An inversion and poor low level lapse rates will not allow
for full mixing, but nonetheless expect gusts in the 35-40 mph
range overnight. Expect lows of around 30 on the lake plains of
western ny, and mid to upper 20s elsewhere. These lows will
occur during the evening, with mixing and warm advection forcing
slowly rising temperatures overnight.

On Saturday the warm frontal boundary will sag back to the south
across lake ontario and the eastern lake ontario region as a weak
backdoor cold front. Convergence and frontogenesis will be very
weak, but there may be just enough when combined with lake moisture
and upslope flow to produce some very light precip east of lake
ontario. The cloud bearing layer may be too warm to support ice
nuclei, so if precip materializes it may be in the form of drizzle
or freezing drizzle. For the rest of the region, expect dry
conditions with low clouds increasing as low level moisture
increases. It will remain quite windy, with gusts of 35-40 mph in
the morning slowly coming down through the day as the low level jet
core moves off to the east. Expect highs within a few degrees of 40
in most areas, with mid to upper 30s for the north country.

Saturday night will be dry with a weak surface ridge in place across
the eastern great lakes. Expect a good deal of cloud cover with nam
and GFS bufkit soundings showing a rather extensive layer of low
level moisture in place, which is a common occurrence during a mid
winter warm-up with warm air crossing cold, snow covered ground. The
majority of the day Sunday will be dry and cloudy with a few
exceptions. A warm frontal segment will sharpen across the saint
lawrence valley, and this may bring some light snow or rain to the
north country where colder temperatures hang on. Another warm
frontal segment may bring rain showers to western ny by late in the
day. Highs will again be within a few degrees of 40 in most areas,
with mid 30s for the north country.

Monday and Monday night a more significant trough will advance into
the central great lakes. Warm advection and moisture transport will
increase across our region Monday, which may support a few showers
from time to time. A cold front will then cross the region late
Monday or Monday night, with the ECMWF a little slower on timing
than GFS based guidance. A plume of deep moisture ahead of the front
combined with increasing ascent will produce periods of rain. Monday
will likely be the warmest day of the stretch, with at least mid to
upper 40s likely in western ny.

The combination of rain, and increased snowmelt from higher
temperatures and dewpoints may bring some flood concern by later
Monday and Monday night. This warm-up is not as dramatic as last
weekend, and rain amounts are also likely to be lower given the fast
passage of the cold front. Nonetheless, there may be some potential
for ice jam flooding by late Monday and Monday night.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday
Tuesday into Wednesday, colder air will rush back into the region
with a blustery southwest to west wind behind the cold front. This
will bring a return to more typical mid-winter temperatures for mid-
week along with lake effect snow within wraparound moisture and
lowering 850mb temps. Will have to keep an eye on how the ice cover
on lake erie evolves over the early week warmup, as it will have an
impact on the magnitude of whatever lake effect snows develops in
western ny.

Aviation 03z Friday through Tuesday
An upper level disturbance will quickly cross the region from west
to east tonight. This will bring some brief scattered snow showers
to areas from roughly kbuf-kroc-ksyr northward... While also helping
to maintain some weakening lake snows east of lake ontario. Expect
flight conditions to range from MVFR in the lake snows east of lake
ontario (including around kart) to predominantlyVFR elsewhere.

On Friday... Lingering lake snows east of lake ontario will
disintegrate into some scattered light snow showers... With MVFR
conditions otherwise prevailing there. Meanwhile south of lake
ontario... Fairly widespread MVFR CIGS in the morning will gradually
give way toVFR conditions from south to north as drier air begins
spreading into the region.

Outlook...

Friday night... MainlyVFR.

Saturday through Sunday... Widespread MVFR ceilings redeveloping on
Saturday... Then persisting through Saturday night and Sunday.

Monday and Monday night...VFR MVFR with rain showers developing.

Tuesday... MVFR ifr with rain showers changing to snow showers before
ending... Then areas of lake effect snow also developing east of the
lakes Tuesday night.

Wednesday...VFR MVFR with a chance of snow showers.

Marine
A persistent pressure gradient will maintain brisk west-
southwesterly flow across the lakes into the upcoming weekend, and
small craft advisories remain in place into Saturday. High pressure
nosing across the region will relax the winds Sunday before winds
freshen once again on Monday ahead of a strong low pressure system
tracking out of the central plains.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm est Saturday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Sunday for
loz042>045.

Synopsis... Jjr rsh
near term... Jjr rsh
short term... Hitchcock
long term... Church
aviation... Jjr rsh
marine... Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 3 mi46 min 22°F 1014.9 hPa (-0.9)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 5 mi46 min SSE 2.9 G 5.1 23°F 1015.6 hPa (-1.0)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 55 mi46 min SW 8 G 12 28°F 1015.2 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
Last
24hr
S9
G12
S10
S8
G11
S8
G11
S11
G14
S11
SW10
G16
S14
G17
SW12
G17
S10
G17
SW13
G24
SW12
G20
SW10
G17
SW9
G17
W11
G24
W14
G24
SW16
G24
SW18
G24
SW12
G21
SW9
G13
S12
G16
S8
G11
S8
G11
S9
G12
1 day
ago
--
SW5
G8
SW5
G17
W20
G33
W20
W19
G25
W12
G20
SW13
G17
SW10
G14
SW9
G15
SW12
G17
S12
G16
SW7
G19
SW9
G14
SW13
G17
W12
G21
SW13
G27
SW11
G15
S12
G15
S10
G15
S9
G14
S10
G14
S10
G13
S8
2 days
ago
SE8
G13
S9
G12
S10
S9
S8
G11
S6
SW9
G14
SW8
G13
W9
G13
W7
G10
SW9
G12
SW5
N6
G9
N4
SE2
SE4
SE4
G7
SE5
SE3
NE1
G4

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY12 mi52 minSW 1010.00 miOvercast24°F14°F65%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
Last 24hrW14
G22
SW9SW7W13W16
G27
W13W14
G21
W16
G23
W14W15
G23
W13W18
G26
W16
G27
W15
G23
W14W12
G20
W11W8SW5SW5S5SW5SW3SW10
1 day agoW9W9W9W13W16SW13SW8SW10SW9SW12W18
G23
W14SW14W15W16W17SW13W15W15SW11SW9SW12W16W13
2 days agoS4SW4SW5SW5SW6SW9SW7SW7SW8SW5SW11W12SW14W10W5W5CalmCalmSE4E3SW3W13W9W8

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (0,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.