Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greece, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 5:04PM Thursday January 17, 2019 3:28 AM EST (08:28 UTC) Moonrise 1:49PMMoonset 3:44AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 335 Pm Est Wed Jan 16 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am est Thursday...
Tonight..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 knots or less after midnight. Mainly clear this evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of light snow in the evening, then light snow likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. Light snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. Scattered flurries. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Sunday..North winds 20 to 25 knots becoming northwest. Snow. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Occasional snow during the day, then a chance of snow showers Monday night. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 36 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201901170415;;456173 FZUS51 KBUF 162035 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 335 PM EST Wed Jan 16 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-170415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greece, NY
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location: 43.29, -77.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 170612
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
112 am est Thu jan 17 2019

Synopsis
A cold and quiet start to the day will have morning sunshine
replaced by increasing cloud cover from the west. A deepening storm
system will pass by our region tonight, spreading occasional light
snow across the region that will amount to an inch or two. A
significant storm will then impact the region over the weekend with
the potential for heavy snow, significant blowing and drifting snow
to be followed by bitterly cold wind chills and areas of lake effect
snow.

Near term through Friday
Lake effect clouds continue to linger across wny this early morning,
to finally be eroded by drier air pushed across the lakes by a
surface high pressure that is centered just to our west. Otherwise
clear skies will begin to be filled by high clouds from the west
later tonight.

Thursday will start out dry for the most part as the
area of high pressure will be over the area through the morning.

After the area of high pressure shift east an area of low pressure
will trek across the ohio valley to the western end of lake erie by
Thursday evening. As this system approaches, mid level clouds will
thicken and lower from southwest to northeast. Any snow will hold
off until early evening Thursday. This area of low pressure will be
within a weak low amplitude mid and upper level trough that will
shift east from the mississippi valley during the day on Thursday.

Temperatures on Thursday will be in the upper teens across the north
country and in the mid 20s across the rest of the area.

Thursday night, light snow will overspread the area from southwest
to northeast during the late evening and early overnight as the
surface low follows a path over lake erie and then over lake ontario
before centering over the saint lawrence valley on Friday morning.

Pops will increase to likely by the late evening for areas along the
i-90 corridor southward. Snow will slowly shift east through the
night with just snow showers across far western new york by around
sunrise on Friday morning. Overall snow will be light, with the
greatest snow accumulations across the southeastern portion of the
forecast area where moisture content and forcing will be more
favorable. Most areas close to the lake shores will see around an
inch of snow accumulation, with areas farther inland expected to
receive closer to two inches. Temperatures on Thursday night will be
in the teens across the north country and in the low to mid 20s
elsewhere.

Friday, light snow across eastern portion of the area will continue
to shift east as the surface low shifts northeast toward new
england. Cyclonic flow associated with an upper level disturbance
over western quebec will help aid in cold air advection over the
lakes. With 850ts dropping to -10c by Friday afternoon and even
cooler by the evening, lake enhanced snow showers will persist
behind the main area of synoptic snow. Snow will continue as lake
effect along the south shore of lake ontario late Friday. With
synoptic moisture lacking behind the departing area of low pressure,
lake enhanced effect snow that falls downwind of the lakes should be
light with accumulations generally around a half inch off of lake
erie and around an inch off of lake ontario and just a coating of
snow for areas between. Temperatures on Friday will be in the upper
20s to low 30s across the area.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
High pressure will move across ontario and quebec provinces Friday
night. A surface ridge will extend down into the eastern great lakes
at this time promoting mostly dry and calm conditions across the
region. Low-level winds will pivot around to the northeast overnight
and as cold, northerly flow persists, any lake effect clouds
and flurries will transition to the southern shore of lake
ontario by Saturday morning. Cold temperatures expected Friday
night with lows in the teens to near zero east of lake ontario.

Our eyes shift to the next big winter storm that has the potential
to bring heavy snow, gusty winds and bitter cold wind chills to
western and north central ny this holiday weekend. A mid-level
trough will track across the central plains while surface low
pressure deepens across the mississippi valley. Two important
strengthening jet streaks, one across the eastern great lakes
and another across the southeast will promote cyclogenesis as
low pressure moves northward into the central appalachians by
Saturday night. Light snow will likely move into western ny as
early as Saturday morning as strong warm air advection occurs
while a light easterly flow remains at the surface. This
snowfall will likely be a non-impactful with only a few inches
occuring through the day on Saturday. Temperatures will not
rebound much on Saturday with highs in the low 20's across
western ny to the single digits east of lake ontario.

There continues to be spread in the surface low track among mid-
range guidance with the 12z ECMWF further south than the 12z GFS and
gefs members. On the contrary, solid consensus between the
various medium range guidance packages then track the deepening
sub 1000mb low across virginia to roughly the DELMARVA peninsula
by daybreak Sunday. While the main deformation zone with this
storm should line up over pennsylvania... Deep lift over our
region will still be provided Saturday night through both
h925-70 frontogenetic forcing and strong h25 jet support. Since
h85 temps over lake ontario will be in the vicinity of -12c...

the counties that line its south shore will also receive
significant lake effect enhancement as the steering flow will
back from 060 to about 020. Temperatures will fall into the
single digits Saturday night with wind chills falling below
zero.

While it is still too early to pinpoint snow accumulations,
greater than 7 inches in 12 hours is possible. A winter storm
watch is in effect for Saturday through Monday.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
A major winter storm with significant impacts expected this
weekend...

we will be in the midst of a major winter storm with significant
winter weather impacts on Sunday.

The winter storm will still be deepening on Sunday as it moves
off the new england coast. Steady snow continuing areawide
Sunday morning will shift away from the area during the day, as
we transition to the lake effect portion of the storm. The
coldest air this winter season will be drawn down into the
region on the backside of the storm and bring lake
enhanced effect snows to the region through Sunday night. This
could bring significant additional snowfall totals, especially
to areas south and southeast of the lakes, including the
rochester metro area. Strong northerly winds on the backside of
the storm will result in significant blowing and drifting snow
likely creating difficult if not impossible travel conditions in
many areas. Dangerously cold wind chills are also likely,
dropping to 15 to 25 below zero for most areas and perhaps as
cold as 30 to 40 below zero for the north country.

The powerful winter storm will exit across the canadian maritimes by
Monday, as a large arctic high crosses into the upper midwest great
lakes. A deep north to northwest flow between these features will
maintain a very cold north-northwest flow of air with 850 mb
temperatures nearing -26c. This brutally cold airmass will most
certainly support more lake effect snow showers, particularly
south and southeast of the lakes along with dangerously cold
wind chills.

Significant spread in long range model solutions exists for the
midweek time frame. Signal is evident for recovery of
temperatures to closer to normal values as the arctic air
departs Tuesday into Wednesday, but the development of a trough
in the central CONUS is causing some issue. The euro and gfs
both advertise low pressure developing and moving up the ohio
valley into the eastern great lakes, while the canadian has a
clipper-type low swinging through the region. Timing differences
also exist between each solution, but the Wednesday time period
currently appears to be the best timing for the arrival of
precipitation from this system. Some warmer air gets pushed
northward toward the region on the southern end of the
precipitation shield, but for now will keep the precipitation
type as all snow until more consensus in guidance is achieved in
the coming days.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
For the 06z tafs, lake effect MVFR-based clouds linger across
portions of wny, and these should continue to thin as surface high
pressure to the west funnels drier air across the lakes. Mid level
clouds will continue to increase through the day, with the next
system and it's lower deck of clouds and snow likely to arrive early
evening to the far west. This system will pass across the region
with occasional ifr flight conditions within snow.

Outlook...

Friday morning... Areas of ifr in periods of light snow.

Friday afternoon and night...VFR MVFR with a chance of snow showers.

Saturday..Deterioration to ifr with widespread snow developing.

Saturday night and Sunday... Widespread ifr in heavy snow.

Monday... Local ifr in lake effect snow showers southeast of the
lakes.

Marine
High pressure just to the west of the lakes, has now brought much
lighter winds and minimal waves to the lakes this early morning.

These quiet conditions are expected to continue through Thursday
night with warming aloft ahead of a storm system that will bring
some light snow. Behind this system, winds and waves will increase
Friday night with small craft advisory conditions possible, mainly
on lake ontario. A strong storm system will pass by just to the
south of the lakes this weekend, with strong east winds backing to
northwest through the weekend and into next week with high end small
craft conditions expected.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter storm watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for nyz001>008-010>014-019>021-085.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Hitchcock SW thomas
short term... Hsk rsh
long term... Tma
aviation... Thomas
marine... Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 3 mi46 min 14°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 5 mi88 min W 6 G 8 17°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY12 mi34 minW 310.00 miA Few Clouds10°F7°F87%1029.2 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW4CalmW8SW6SW7SW6SW6W10W12SW14W11SW10W11SW10SW12SW14W11SW11SW16
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2 days agoCalmCalmS5SW4SW4S6S4SE5SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3W3SW3SW4W5SW3SW7SW7W8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.