Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greece, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:36PM Thursday March 30, 2017 4:30 PM EDT (20:30 UTC) Moonrise 7:44AMMoonset 9:48PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 207 Pm Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
This afternoon..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east. Rain likely late. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet.
Friday..East winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Friday night..East winds 15 to 25 knots. Areas of fog. Rain. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Areas of fog during the day. A chance of rain showers during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 39 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201703302115;;323794 FZUS51 KBUF 301807 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 207 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LOZ043-302115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greece, NY
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location: 43.29, -77.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 301916
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
316 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure over illinois will move slowly south of the great lakes
through Friday night before moving off the east coast on Saturday.

This will bring periods of soaking rain to much of the region
through Saturday morning, with snow and mixed precipitation across
the north country. Mainly dry weather will return later Saturday and
Sunday as high pressure builds into the eastern great lakes.

Near term /through Friday/
Radar imagery showing the leading band of precipitation oriented
along an elevated warm front is moving northeast across western ny
this afternoon. Bright banding is displaying higher precip rates
than what are actually being recorded at the ground based on checks
of mesonet gauges. Evaporative cooling of the lower atmosphere where
the higher returns are being picked up is causing surface temps to
lower and dewpoints to rise with some locations and mesonet cameras
across the southern tier and far southtowns seeing some wet snow
occuring before a changeover to rain should occur.

A 50-kt low level jet will continue to transport moisture across the
warm front resulting in widespread precipitation while the front
shifts to the north and east across western ny and the finger lakes
through the balance of the afternoon reaching the eastern lake
ontario region by nightfall. In a similar fashion to what has
happened earlier this afternoon, expect evaporative cooling to allow
for some areas of wet snow to occur before a changeover to rain.

This is especially possible across the genesee valley and western
finger lakes into the evening. Any snow accumulations would be
limited to a few tenths of wet snow. Rainfall accumulations of a
tenth to a quarter of an inch are possible.

Tonight, widespread precipitation is expected as the surface warm
front extends across western and central new york. Precip type will
be plain rain for most of western ny and the finger lakes, with low
level temperatures warm enough to support full melting across the
bulk of the area. There may even be a few periods of moderate to
heavy rainfall overnight along the front. The exception will be east
of lake ontario, where the warm front will stall just short of
tonight, supporting persistent northeast flow supplying enough low
level cold air to for snow and some mixed precipitation. Forecast
soundings and SREF plumes support mainly wet snow across the bulk of
northern oswego, jefferson and lewis counties, which will mix with
some sleet and freezing rain at times with a thin layer of warm air
laying over the cold surface temperatures. For most of the area
soundings support a relatively limited risk of freezing rain and
sleet, with the one possible exception of southern lewis county. In
this area, the warm nose aloft may arrive several hours prior to
surface temps moving above freezing, setting the stage for a little
higher freezing rain potential. SREF probabilities for freezing rain
and sleet across the north county run less than 10 percent. Low
surface temps will dip into the low to mid 30s in most places with a
warm nose aloft likely preventing any change to snow in western ny
south of the front.

Through Friday, the warm front extended generally along the southern
lake ontario shoreline in the morning will slowly lift northeast
across the north country. South of the boundary as it moves expect
more plain rain with temps only warming into the low to mid 40s.

North of the boundary expect wet snow with some sleet and freezing
rain possible until the warm front lifts north to the saint lawrence
river valley. Total liquid QPF through tonight and Friday will run
between one and one and a half inches with highest along the
southern lake ontario shoreline. Closer to a half inch toward the
western southern tier. See hydrology section below for more info on
impacts from this rain.

On the cold side, have posted a winter weather advisory for the
eastern lake ontario region starting at 8pm tonight and running to
8pm Friday to cover for 3-6 inches of wet snow with up to a tenth of
an inch of ice possible from mixing in of sleet and freezing rain at
times. These higher amounts will be mainly across the higher terrain
surrounding and including the tug.

Short term /Friday night through Sunday night/
It will be a soggy start to the weekend... As rainy weather from
Friday will continue into Saturday morning. The dismal weather will
be provided by a slow moving... Complex storm system that will have
its upper level support pass across pennsylvania. Meanwhile... At the
surface... A weak sfc reflection will 'transfer' its energy to the
new jersey coast where a more significant low will take shape. This
will mean that the bulk of the dynamics associated with this mature
system will move east of our region... With only the semblance of a
weak deformation zone trailing across the far western counties. The
result will be some light rain and possibly some drizzle for most
areas... Although the pcpn could mix with or change to a little wet
snow for sites east of lake ontario. Given the light sfc gradient
and near saturated conditions... There should be some fog as well...

with dense fog possible over the higher terrain.

While mid level ridging will make its way across the lower great
lakes on Saturday... Guidance is suggesting that an inverted trough
will extend back across our region from the newly formed coastal
low. This will maintain a cyclonic flow in the low levels so that
the wealth of residual moisture (trapped beneath a subsidence
inversion) will keep much of the day shrouded under clouds. There
will even be some leftover showers during the morning... Especially
east of the genesee valley where low level convergence near and head
of the inverted trough will offer some lift. Early morning pops will
range chc over the far western counties to categorical from the tug
hill to the foothills of the adirondacks. Temps Saturday afternoon
will generally be in the low to mid 40s.

A shortwave in the northern branch will sweep across the st lawrence
valley Saturday night... Glancing by our forecast area in the
process. While there will still be a fair amount of low level
moisture in place... High pressure nosing south from hudson bay
should supply us with fair dry weather. Temps Saturday night will
generally settle into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Ridging moving across the lower great lakes will supply us with a
nice ending to the weekend... As at least partial sunshine and h85
temps near zero c will enable Sunday afternoon temperatures to get
into the 50s (up 40s ERN lake ont region).

Long term /Monday through Thursday/
A progressive... Low amplitude pattern at the start of this period
will become phased with significant amplification as we push into
the second half of the week. This will lead to a period of cold
weather just beyond this forecast period... One that will feel more
like early march rather than early april. In the process of this
pattern change... A pair of southern stream storm systems will pass
over or just south of the region. In terms of the day to day
details...

the first of the southern stream storms will make its way to the
lower ohio valley by late in the day. Clouds will thicken over our
forecast area in the process... With some showers possibly starting
over the western counties during the afternoon. H85 temps warming to
near 5c from the finger lakes west to lake erie would support
afternoon MAX temps in the mid 50s.

The broad storm system will pass across the mid atlantic region
Monday night and early Tuesday... With rain becoming a little more
widespread over our region. This will especially be the case over
the southern tier.

As this storm system pulls away Tuesday afternoon and night... A
passing mid level ridge will support a brief period of dry fair
weather.

Unsettled weather will return late Wednesday into Thursday as the
next system will take aim on the lower great lakes.

Aviation /19z Thursday through Tuesday/
Mix of MVFR/vfr conditions continue across western ny with a warm
front shifting north and east. The MVFR is occuring in the rain and
wet snow along the front. By this evening the low levels will
saturate, and a low level frontal inversion will steepen, further
trapping low level moisture and increasing the likelihood of ifr
cigs and MVFR to ifr vsby across western ny with low stratus and
ongoing rain which will persist into Friday afternoon.

Across the north country the airmass will be colder supporting wet
snow later in the evening including kart with ifr vsby and
eventually cigs. The snow will be slow to gradually change to rain
Friday morning, with some wintry mix possible farther east across
the higher terrain.

Outlook...

Friday night... MVFR/ifr with rain. A wintry mix possible across
the north country.

Saturday... MVFR/ifr with showers in the morning, improving to
MVFR/vfr in the afternoon.

Sunday...VFR.

Monday and Tuesday... Chance of rain with MVFR possible.

Marine
Ene winds will increase further overnight on lake ontario as the
pressure gradient tightens between an approaching low and high
pressure exiting over eastern quebec. This will bring small craft
advisory conditions to the west half of lake ontario through Friday
evening. Winds will become north and diminish late Friday night and
Saturday morning as the low moves off the east coast.

Hydrology
Periods of rain will shift north and east across western and
central ny through Saturday morning. Expect long duration light
rain, with several embedded periods of moderate to briefly
heavy rain as ribbons of stronger forcing move across the
region. Event total rainfall amounts look to run from 1-1.75
inches in most areas, with the latest mesoscale model guidance
supporting the highest totals in an east/west band between the
thruway corridor and the south shore of lake ontario.

The rainfall will produce significant within-bank rises on area
creeks and rivers. Mmefs ensemble river forecasts suggest a
relatively low chance of minor flooding for the buffalo creeks
as well as black creek and oatka creek. Given the rain is spread
out over a few days and the relatively low chance of river
flooding, will hold off on a flood watch. If the heavier axis of
rain ends up being a little farther south and over the
headwaters of the creeks mentioned above, the risk for minor
flooding would increase in those creeks.

Buf watches/warnings/advisories
Ny... Winter weather advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 pm edt
Saturday for nyz006>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Saturday for loz043.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Saturday for loz042.

Synopsis... Smith
near term... Smith
short term... Rsh
long term... Rsh
aviation... Smith
marine... Smith
hydrology... Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 3 mi43 min 37°F 1020 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 5 mi31 min E 19 G 23 37°F 1020.3 hPa (-3.4)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY12 mi37 minESE 1010.00 miOvercast42°F24°F49%1019.9 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9N7N7E5NE6E6CalmCalmE7E8CalmCalmE4E3E8E10--E14E9E11E10SE8SE10SE10
1 day agoNE10E3N3CalmCalmCalmE6E5CalmCalmNW3CalmNW3CalmNE4CalmNE6NE8NE7N6NE8NE10NE8N10
G15
2 days agoW15
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W12SW5W5SW3SW10SW8SW5SW4SW4SW3SW3SW3CalmW3NW3NW7N5N9N9N10N8N7NE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.