Monday, November12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greece, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 4:50PM Monday November 12, 2018 7:07 PM EST (00:07 UTC) Moonrise 11:30AMMoonset 8:56PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 305 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Rain in the morning, then rain and snow in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow showers. Waves 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Lake effect snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Rain and snow likely Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Rain likely. Waves building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201811130415;;205218 FZUS51 KBUF 122005 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 305 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-130415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greece, NY
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location: 43.29, -77.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 122308
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
608 pm est Mon nov 12 2018

Synopsis
Conditions will deteriorate across much of the region later tonight
and Tuesday as a storm system passing to our south and east will
generate some accumulating snow. While most areas should pick up a
coating to an inch of snow, the higher terrain of the southern tier
and eastern lake ontario region could receive 3 to 5 inches of
accumulation. Accumulating lake effect snow can then be expected
southeast of both lakes late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Near term through Tuesday
Radar imagery showing plenty of returns overhead early this evening,
but surface observations suggest nearly all of this is virga with
dry weather still reported across the region. It will take some time
to moisten the very dry low levels ahead of the system, with
precipitation not reaching the ground until at least mid evening
across the western southern tier.

High pressure centered just off the new england coast this evening
will push further out to sea during the overnight. This will allow
disorganized low pressure within a broad inverted trough over the
tennessee and ohio valleys to consolidate and deepen over the mid
atlantic region. While not a perfect textbook example, this could be
categorized as miller a type of cyclogenesis.

As the surface low becomes better organized over the mid atlantic
region, a strengthening baroclinic zone will set up across
pennsylvania and southeast new york, and to a lesser extent back
across our forecast area. This developing boundary will then be
acted upon by a south to southwest flow beneath h85 that will
obliquely force a deepening moisture field to produce fairly strong
frontogentic lift. Some assistance will be given to the deep layer
of ascent by the right entrance region of an incredibly strong
185kt h25 jet.

Light snow will break out across the southern tier region after
about 02z, with the precipitation spreading northeast and filling
back in to the west during the course of the night. The most
widespread pcpn should be experienced between about 08z and 13z.

While the bulk of the pcpn tonight should be in the form of snow,
there could be some rain mixing in, especially for sites north of
the nys thruway between buf and syr. Its worth noting that guidance
is 'colder' than previous model runs... And point soundings suggest a
fair amount of evaporational cooling at the onset... Both pointing
towards more snow and less rain. Snowfall amounts tonight will range
from a coating to less than an inch across the bulk of the lake
plains... To 2 to 3 inches across the higher terrain of the SRN tier
and also for the tug hill. Have expanded the winter weather advisory
for lewis county to also include wyoming, cattaraugus, and allegany
counties... As 24 amounts could reach as high 5 inches and also
because it is still relatively early in the season.

The fairly widespread rain snow mix early Tuesday morning will then
taper off to scattered snow showers in most areas, with some rain
still mixing in through mid afternoon close to the lakes... As the
supporting storm system will exit up the new england coast. This
will effectively remove the h925-70 frontogenetic forcing from our
area... But while synoptic forcing will dramatically weaken...

deepening cold air will set the stage for lake effect to take over.

As we progress through the afternoon... H85 temps over the lakes will
tumble to -12c. Northwest flow will direct some initial lake effect
snow showers into the western southern tier off lake erie, and
southeast of lake ontario. Mesoscale model guidance such as the nmm,
arw, and canadian gem suggest a multitude of squally snow showers
during the afternoon across much of the area from a combination of
some lake effect bands from lake huron and our local lakes, steep
low level lapse rates, and large scale forcing from the incoming mid
level trough. These brief bursts of snow showers may bring low
visibility and fresh coatings of slushy snow to many areas during
the afternoon. Surface temperatures will also begin to fall during
the afternoon, affording these snow showers a better opportunity of
sticking after 2-3pm.

Short term Tuesday night through Friday
Lake effect snow which begins to develop Tuesday afternoon evening
continues to strengthen during the early overnight hours as cold air
continues to build into the region. This event will be short lived
as drier air and less favorable flows develop on Wednesday.

Temperatures will remain below normal this period... With highs
Wednesday remaining below freezing for much of the region.

Off lake erie... The northwest flow will produce multibanded lake
effect snows downwind of the lake with accumulations of a few inches
before the drier air starts building in with diminishing activity
Wednesday morning.

Off lake ontario... The longer fetch combined with upstream
connection will produce a moderate to heavier snowfall likely
targeting wayne, northern cayuga and oswego counties. Will continue
to highlight the potential for heavier snowfall -- half a foot or so
over a 24 hour period -- in the hwo with headlines still not out of
the question. As drier air builds in during the day Wednesday will
look for diminishing snows through the afternoon and evening
hours... With lingering snow showers into the early overnight hours
of Wednesday night.

While Thursday will start off dry across our region as lingering
surface-based ridging begrudgingly slides eastward and off the new
england coast... The fair weather will once again give way to
deteriorating conditions Thursday afternoon and especially Thursday
night as a another complex area of low pressure pushes northeastward
from the southeastern states... And eventually evolves into yet
another deepening coastal low along the mid-atlantic coastline by
Friday morning. Plentiful moisture and lift attendant to this system
will spread increasing chances of precipitation into the area from
the south Thursday afternoon... With fairly widespread precipitation
then following for Thursday night... Before diminishing from west to
east on Friday as the low departs into the canadian maritimes.

Thermal profiles continue to suggest that the atmospheric column
should be cold enough to allow for mainly snow with this event...

though marginal boundary layer temperatures will probably allow some
rain to mix in at the onset Thursday Thursday evening and again on
Friday as the precip lightens and winds down. Otherwise... Temperatures
through the latter half of the short term period will continue to
average solidly below normal... With lows in the mid 20s to lower
30s Thursday night sandwiched in between highs ranging through the
30s Thursday... And in the upper 30s to lower 40s on Friday.

Long term Friday night through Monday
In the wake of the late-week coastal system... Broad upper level
troughing will once again dominate our weather through the long
term period. This will ensure a continuation of well below normal
temperatures through early next week... With daily highs averaging
close to 10 degrees below normal. At the same time... Such an
environment will also lead to continued opportunities for lake
effect precipitation downwind of the lakes.

Digging a little more into the forecast details... A general west
to west-northwesterly flow will be in place across our region
through Friday night and early Saturday... Before perhaps turning
a little more west-southwesterly to southwesterly on Saturday in
advance of an approaching surface trough. Meanwhile... 850 mb temps
should drop off to the -3c to -6c range Friday night... Before
remaining in this general range or perhaps warming a little on
Saturday out ahead of the aforementioned trough. While certainly
cold enough for a lake response... Such temps aloft will likely
not be cold enough to support all snow... With boundary layer
temperatures the main determining factor for precipitation type.

With this in mind would expect more of a mix of rain and snow
Friday evening and again on Saturday when boundary layer temps
will be warmer... With snow more predominant during the second
half of Friday night. Meanwhile... Precipitation should be much
more widely scattered outside of the main lake effect areas...

with mainly dry weather prevailing the majority of the time. As
for temps... We can expect lows in the lower to mid 30s Friday
night... Followed by highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s on Saturday.

The surface trough then looks to cross our region Saturday night
along with a more general chance of snow showers... With a west-
northwesterly flow of much colder but also drier air in its wake
then supporting scattered lake effect snow showers southeast of
the lakes later Saturday night through Sunday. With 850 mb temps
falling to around -13c... Sunday will easily be the coldest day of
the period... With highs struggling to get above the upper 20s and
lower 30s areawide - readings that are much more typical of mid
to late january than november.

Surface-based ridging and drier air should build into the region
Sunday night... And this in concert with warming subsidence aloft
should result in lingering lake effect snow showers weakening to
the southeast and east of the lakes. By Monday the medium range
guidance diverges markedly with the GFS gem suggesting the passage
of another trough... While the ECMWF keeps the area mainly dry.

Given the distant time frame... For now have elected to lean more
optimistic and follow the latter scenario... With a mainly dry and
somewhat milder day forecast.

Aviation 23z Monday through Saturday
Vfr conditions will continue through mid evening as dry low levels
hold precipitation and lower conditions at bay initially. From late
evening through the overnight precipitation will spread from the
western southern tier into the finger lakes and eastern lake ontario
region, and also build back to the north and west eventually. Much
of this will be in the form of snow, although some rain may mix in
at lower elevations near the lake erie and ontario shore. The most
widespread precipitation will fall from roughly 08z-13z, perhaps
lasting a few more hours east of lake ontario. Vsby will deteriorate
to ifr in snow late tonight through early Tuesday, with cigs
lowering to MVFR at lower elevations and ifr higher terrain.

From mid morning through the afternoon Tuesday the steady,
widespread wet snow will transition to more intermittent snow
showers. These snow showers will continue to mix with some rain
through mid afternoon near the lakeshores. Vsby will be ifr in the
snow showers, withVFR between. Areas of MVFR CIGS will continue.

Outlook...

Tuesday night and Wednesday... MainlyVFR, but ifr southeast of
both lakes in lake snow.

Thursday... MainlyVFR.

Friday... MVFR ifr possible in rain and or wet snow.

Saturday... MainlyVFR, but ifr possible east of both lakes in
lake snows.

Marine
A relatively weak surface pressure gradient over the lower great
lakes this evening will tighten on Tuesday... As a developing storm
will intensify while tracking up the coast of new england. The
corresponding winds will freshen in the process... Likely leading to
small craft advisory conditions for all of the ny nearshore waters
by late Tuesday and certainly Tuesday night.

Small craft advisory conditions will continue Wednesday with
moderate northwesterlies. As high pressure builds across the lower
great lakes on Wednesday night, winds and waves will gradually
subside from west to east.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to 6 pm est
Tuesday for nyz012-020-021.

Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 6 pm est Tuesday for
nyz008.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hitchcock rsh
near term... Hitchcock rsh
short term... Jjr levan
long term... Jjr
aviation... Hitchcock
marine... Hitchcock rsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 3 mi38 min 43°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 5 mi68 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 43°F
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 27 mi78 min SE 3.9 G 5.8 45°F 49°F1 ft1025.1 hPa (-0.8)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 55 mi68 min S 1.9 G 2.9 43°F 1025.4 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY12 mi74 minN 010.00 miOvercast42°F28°F58%1025.2 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmS3CalmSW4SW3SW3SW4SW5SW4SW3SW5SW6SW6SW8SW5SW6SW7W6SW4SW4CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW15
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2 days agoS4SW8SW11SW7SW10W16
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.