Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greece, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:43PM Sunday November 19, 2017 3:49 AM EST (08:49 UTC) Moonrise 7:57AMMoonset 5:55PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 138 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
Overnight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west and increasing to 35 knot gales. Rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Sunday..Northwest gales to 35 knots. Rain showers. Waves 11 to 16 feet. Waves occasionally around 20 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow. Waves 11 to 16 feet subsiding to 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 20 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Monday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day, then rain showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 50 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201711191030;;632142 FZUS51 KBUF 190638 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 138 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-191030-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greece, NY
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location: 43.29, -77.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 190651
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
151 am est Sun nov 19 2017

Synopsis
A strengthening storm system moving across western new york will
spread periods of rain across our region overnight, then a strong
cold front will plow across the lower great lakes to produce mixed
precipitation late tonight. Gusty winds in the wake of the powerful
front will introduce a notably colder airmass into the area for the
second half of the weekend. This colder airmass will generate
accumulating snows southeast of both lakes Sunday into Monday.

Near term through today
Low pressure is currently moving away from wny. The strongest
lift is under the warm conveyor belt along the appalachians to
the finger lakes and within the exit region of an upper level
jet maxed out near 145kts from tn northeast to ky. This is
clearly identified by a band of heavy precip in the same general
region. The surface low is expected to take a track nearly over
kbuf then into central lake ontario overnight while continuing
to deepen overnight while the strongest low level jet is
displaced far to the S and e.

Here are a some details for overnight early Sunday...

precipitation... The most interesting precipitation area is
associated with the warm conveyor belt upper level jet. But the
forecast surface low track will keep the heavy precipitation mainly
east toward the finger lakes and into eastern pa from this point
forward. Other areas will receive lighter amounts overnight. A dry
conveyor belt is clearly seen in satellite and radar. This area
will cross most of wny and cny for a good portion of the night with
mainly light minimal precipitation, followed by a fairly elongated
deformation band entering the oh valley. That area should make its
way east toward wny toward daybreak. By that time, temperatures
will have dropped into the 30s for all but the eastern lake ontario
region, and would not be surprised to see an hour or so of snow
before the main synoptic features move east of the region. This may
put down a dusting coating of snow over wny.

Wind... While the strength of the cyclogenic event is admirable, the
track of the low is not favorable for strong to high winds as the
strongest low level winds will be tied to the tight baroclinic region
south and east of the region. So, while there will be a notable
increase in windspeeds as the low exists to the ne, wind gusts
should MAX out in the 40-45 mph range, with highest winds in the
typical wind prone areas along the lakeshores and or highest
elevation sections of the southern tier. Upstream observations so
far agree with this forecast.

Sunday, a cyclonic flow of much colder air will continue overspread
the lower great lakes. Over-lake instability will become more
favorable as the day wears on, with lake induced capes and inversion
heights becoming respectable by afternoon, setting the stage for a
period of lake effect snows to the southeast of both lakes in a
predominantly west-northwest flow regime. The best lake parameters
later Sunday night (see short term discussion). During the daytime
hours, accumulations will likely be limited to just a couple of
inches or less due to thin multibands that have yet to coalesce into
a more coherent and impactful band.

Short term tonight through Tuesday night
Sunday night the eastern great lakes region will be firmly
entrenched within cold air advecting across the great lakes, with
lake effect snow falling southeast of both lakes. Accumulating snow
will be on the minor side through Sunday evening, but as the cold
air aloft deepens, and lake induced equilibrium levels increase
through the night we should see enhancement to the snow rates off
both lakes.

For lake erie...

northwest winds Sunday evening will drive lake effect snow across sw
nys. As temperatures cool aloft at 850 hpa to -10 -11c lake induced
equilibrium levels will increase to around 12-15k feet and with
ample moisture within the snow dendritic growth zone we should see
some increase in intensity to the lake effect snow around mid-
overnight. The northwest perpendicular flow will allow for a broad
structure to the lake band that will bring snow totals of several
inches Sunday night to the western so. Tier... And extreme southern
erie county. There remains uncertainty if an upstream connection to
lake huron will occur behind the passage of a 500 hpa shortwave
trough, and without this upstream connection... Overall snow totals
through this event will remain at advisory levels.

As surface high pressure over the mid mississippi valley lower ohio
valley nudges northeastward, winds will back some, while inversion
heights and overall synoptic moisture diminishes. This will weaken
the lake effect snow Monday as the band lifts northward towards
metro buffalo. The passage of a shortwave 850 hpa ridge axis Monday
afternoon will end lake effect snow... At about the time the band
reaches near metro buffalo.

For lake ontario...

northwest winds will also bring lake effect snow southeast of the
lake, with snows focused upon wayne to oswego counties. There will
likely be minor upslope lake effect snows on the southern tug hill.

Over the longer fetch of the lake, there will likely be a more
concentrated area of snow, with a narrow band of snow setting up
over oswego county. Temperatures aloft will be a bit colder over
lake ontario, dipping to about -11 -12c which will produce extreme
lake instability. The narrow band of snow over lake ontario will
increase in strength through the night, and with potential for an
upstream connection to georgian bay this band of snow has the
potential to produce snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour late
Sunday night and into Monday morning. Behind the passage of a 500
hpa shortwave trough, the band of snow may drop towards wayne and
northern cayuga counties for a brief time mid-overnight Sunday night
before centering back upon far northern cayuga and across western
and central oswego counties in the pre-dawn hours Monday. It is at
this time and location that we expect the most intense part of the
snow band, and with the snow band likely to remain over the same
areas for a 4-8 hour window... Warning criteria snowfall amounts are
possible. As such a winter storm watch (for lake effect snow) has
been issued for these two counties of northern cayuga and oswego
counties.

Monday morning the band of snow over oswego county will begin to
lift northward towards the tug hill as high pressure from the west
begins to nudge towards the eastern great lakes region. Winds will
continue to back some through the day, and as moisture depletes from
the snow dentritic zone, and inversion heights lower the intensity
to the lake effect snow will diminish, such that it will be in a
much weaker form by time it reaches the central tug hill. Here a few
inches of snow will be possible before the band broadens and
dissipates Monday evening.

Later Monday night and into Tuesday a period of dry weather is
expected as an axis of the surface high pressure crosses the region.

Skies will clear Monday night, but a southerly breeze will prevent
temperatures from rapidly dropping, with overnight lows in the lower
30s. Tuesday, these southerly winds will increase further, with
gusts up to 30-40 mph. Highest gusts will likely be across the hill
tops of SW nys, where a 55 knot LLJ will occasionally produce gusts
30 to 35 mph, and also across the lake plain of wny where downslope
flow, and under the strong LLJ may bring gusts upwards towards 40
mph. These winds and warming aloft will bring afternoon temperatures
into the 40s to low to mid 50s. Warmest areas will be the lake
plains and genesee valley, except for SE of lake ontario where a
fresh snowpack will slow warming.

Surface low pressure will cut across the central great lakes
Tuesday, deepening to about 985 mb as it crosses james bay Tuesday
night. Aloft another potent shortwave trough will be crossing the
central great lakes, pushing the cold front eastward. Ahead of the
cold front clouds will begin to increase through Tuesday afternoon,
and as these clouds increase we'll see some diminishment to the
gusty winds.

Rain showers along the front will reach wny Tuesday evening, and
continue to push inland across the region with the passage of the
cold front. The warm southerly flow ahead of the cold front will
start this precipitation off as plain rain. As temperatures cool
behind the front, rain will mix with and likely change to snow by
late Tuesday night. Not much snow accumulation at this time, with
perhaps an inch across higher elevations.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Good news for thanksgiving travel is that no significant storms are
forecast surrounding and including thanksgiving day. Several
shortwaves troughs pinwheeling around a deep mid-level low over
hudson bay will occasionally glance the eastern great lakes region
with some chances of light precipitation. Overall, the lack of a
zonal flow or ridging in the jet over the great lakes will mean
temperatures will average below normal.

This cooler air will be felt on Wednesday behind Tuesday nights cold
front. 850mb temps will slip back to -8c to -10c over the lakes. The
lack of synoptic moisture in this airmass behind the front will
prevent any significant lake effect precipitation. There may be some
lingering rain snow showers or even drizzle and clouds Wednesday
east of the lakes before the airmass dries out. Models then begin to
show some differences for thanksgiving day. The 12z ECMWF shows a
shortwave trough and cold front will attempt to shift into wny
thanksgiving day while the GFS keeps our area dry with a weak trough
and hardly any moisture not shifting across our region until Friday
morning. Had to lean at least partially with the ec solution while
only including a chance of some rain snow showers on thanksgiving.

Temperatures both Wednesday and thanksgiving day will be below
normal with highs only expected to reach into the mid upper 30s
during the day and 20s at night.

The front trough portrayed on the ec would likely lead in another
shot of cooler air for thanksgiving night and Friday. Some limited
lake enhancement or upslope showers may develop with best chances,
though still low, would be east of lake ontario where the coolest
air aloft would be. Otherwise, dry weather with cool temps expected.

Friday night and Saturday then feature increasing chances of
rain snow showers as ec GFS show a deeper low dipping into or
crossing the great lakes. Timing differences between these models
have led to holding pops in the mid-chance range. Temperatures
Friday will remain below normal before rising to near normal in the
mid 40s ahead of this next system for Saturday.

Aviation 07z Sunday through Thursday
A deepening storm system exiting via the saint lawrence valley will
generate mixed precipitation across the region for the remainder of
the overnight... With most areas experiencing ifr to MVFR cigs. The
lowest CIGS will be across the higher terrain of the southern tier
and finger lakes region.

After daybreak... The widespread synoptic precipitation will give way
to more focused lake effect snow... Mainly across the western end of
the state. While CIGS will improve to MVFR for most of the taf
sites... Lake snows will reduce vsbys to ifr levels.

Outlook...

Sunday night...VFR... Except ifr southeast of both lakes in lake
effect snow.

Monday... Lake effect sn, ifr SE of lakes, otherwise
vfr MVFR. Tuesday... MainlyVFR. Wednesday... Rain and snow showers
with a chance of MVFR ifr.

Thursday...VFR, but MVFR in lake effect snow showers E of the lakes.

Marine
A deepening storm will move from lake erie, across lake ontario, and
into the st lawrence valley by Sunday. Winds on the back side of
this system will quickly veer from S to wnw and reach gale force
through Sunday. Winds will slacken slowly Sunday night and Monday as
expansive high pressure over the southern states makes its way off
the southeast coast.

Tides coastal flooding
Developing very strong onshore winds will build significant wave
action from late tonight into Sunday night along the lake
ontario shoreline. The combination of already higher lake levels
and continued wave action will result in increased shoreline
erosion, especially where the lakeshore is already unstable from
erosion earlier in the year.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood warning from 5 am early this morning to 1 am
est Monday for nyz001>007.

Winter storm watch from this afternoon through Monday evening
for nyz005-006.

Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est Monday for nyz019-020-
085.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am est Monday for lez020.

Gale warning until 7 pm est this evening for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Monday for loz030.

Gale warning until 10 pm est this evening for loz042>045-
062>065.

Synopsis... Tma zaff
near term... Rsh tma zaff
short term... Thomas
long term... Smith
aviation... Rsh
marine... Tma zaff
tides coastal flooding... Tma


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 5 mi50 min NW 26 G 35 42°F 986.1 hPa (+1.0)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 27 mi60 min N 23 G 29 42°F 49°F2 ft983.5 hPa (-0.7)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 55 mi50 min WNW 25 G 31 38°F 991.9 hPa (+6.1)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY12 mi56 minWNW 21 G 279.00 miLight Rain and Breezy42°F41°F96%986.4 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE6S3S5SE7S4SW6SW8SW12
G17
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1 day agoNW11NW14
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NW9N6NW12NW11NW11N10NW8W64W8W6SW4S3CalmSE5SE6SE6SE4SE6SE6SE5Calm
2 days agoSW12
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G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.