Saturday, July22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wilson, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 8:47PM Saturday July 22, 2017 10:46 PM EDT (02:46 UTC) Moonrise 4:03AMMoonset 7:10PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 403 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of light rain early.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the afternoon.
Sunday night..East winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the evening.
Monday..North winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Becoming mainly clear.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night.
Thursday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Partly cloudy. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ030 Expires:201707230315;;663474 FZUS51 KBUF 222003 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 403 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ030-230315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilson, NY
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location: 43.31, -78.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 230000
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
800 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017

Synopsis
A warm and humid airmass along a stalled frontal boundary over the
ohio valley will continue to bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms through Monday. A few thunderstorms may become strong
to severe Sunday and Sunday night across western new york. Surface
high pressure will build into the region Tuesday, with slightly
lower humidity and mostly sunny skies.

Near term through Sunday
A diffuse wave over michigan will track across the region this
evening along a stalled frontal boundary producing some spotty light
rain across the region. Behind this weak wave overnight we will see
mainly dry conditions with perhaps a rogue shower or two in the
vicinity of the stalled boundary.

Tomorrow a potent shortwave across the western great lakes will
deepen a surface low across the central great lakes. This surface
low will push the stalled frontal boundary to our south a bit
farther northward, allowing for our region to tap into a more
unstable airmass of 1000 to 1500 j kg. The combination of increased
instability, and 0-6 km bulk shear magnitude increasing to around 40
knots will support thunderstorms... Of which some may increase in
strength to strong to severe. Primary concerns will be damaging
winds from the storms, though CAPE profiles suggest that hail will
also be possible.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday night
A mid-level trough axis over lake huron will slowly pivot across the
eastern great lakes Sunday night through Monday driving a surface
low and associated low-level frontal zone moisture axis across
western and central new york. This will all come together to produce
a fairly widespread band or bands of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night into Monday from the genesee valley east into central
ny as the low shifts east before redeveloping off the coast of cape
cod later Monday. There remains some concern for potential hazardous
weather with these storms. Pwats ahead of the low are forecast to
rise to around 1.5 inches or near the 90th percentile of pwat
climatology which may bring a risk of heavy downpours and flooding
especially if storms train along any surface boundaries. There is
also a lingering risk for severe winds during the evening hours with
any organized storms Sunday evening where GFS forecasts bulk shear
of 40-50kts. Veering vertical wind profiles in forecast soundings
may even bring about another isolated tornado risk. The most
favorable CAPE surface based instability will be Monday afternoon
across central ny. SPC has included a slight marginal risk area for
Sunday with marginal risk area on Monday in our forecast area. These
potential hazards will also continue to be highlighted in the
hazardous weather outlook.

By Monday night the consensus of the models shows the low positioned
off the new england coast with high pressure in the process of
building back across the great lakes. There will also be a
developing cool northerly flow on the backside of the coastal low.

Pops continue to show a trend of showers tapering off from west to
east overnight leaving dry weather across wny.

Tuesday and Tuesday night will feature dry and quiet weather as high
pressure settles over western new york. Skies will feature
increasing clearing from west to east as the moisture axis exits off
the coast with the low.

Temperatures will run cooler Monday and Tuesday topping out below
normal late july levels. Highs run generally reach into the lower to
mid 70s in the cool northerly flow on the backside of the passing
low along with 850mb temps dipping to 10-12c in the passing trough.

Overnight lows will bottom out in the 60s Sunday night then slip to
50s Monday and Tuesday nights with cool and dry northerly flow.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Upper level ridging will crest across the region on Wednesday,
providing for one more fair weather day for western and north-
central new york, with seasonable temperatures in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. After a couple of cooler nights earlier in the week,
mugginess will return Wednesday night as surface high pressure moves
off the new england coast, opening up the lower great lakes to
warm and moist southerly flow. This will be reflected in lows
that will run in the mid to upper 60s. Along with this increase
in humidity, we will see a chance of showers and thunderstorms
towards daybreak, as a prominent upper level trough approaches
the area.

Model consensus continues to indicate the passage of the
aforementioned upper level trough on Thursday. This should result in
widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday evening
as a cold front sags south across the area. A secondary reinforcing
shortwave may end up aiding in the development of diurnal showers
Friday afternoon, particularly across the southern half of the
forecast area, closer to the hung up frontal boundary. Nominally
cooler air filtering in behind the front may yield a milder day
Friday, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
Expect widespreadVFR conditions overnight with some mid and high
level cloud cover and some spotty light rain shower. Jhw and the
western southern tier will be the exception, with ifr lifr stratus
developing as a low-level moist airmass advects into the region
overnight. Fairly light southerly winds may allow the low stratus
there to develop downward into fog overnight.

On Sunday scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
develop over western ny and spread eastward across the finger lakes
and into central ny by Sunday night. ExpectVFR conditions outside
of thunderstorms, with localized MVFR ifr in thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Monday... MainlyVFR but with a chance of showers.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

Wednesday night and Thursday... MainlyVFR but with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
An easterly wind will increase to 15 to 20 knots on lake ontario
Sunday, though the strongest winds should remain out over the open
waters of the lakes. These winds will bring waves on the western
shores of lake ontario to near 4 feet on lake ontario late Sunday
afternoon and through the evening hours. Scattered thunderstorms are
also expected over area waterways Sunday which could produce small
hail and locally higher winds and waves.

Tides coastal flooding
As low pressure approaches our region Sunday and Sunday evening...

a low-level easterly to east-northeasterly flow will briefly
strengthen across lake ontario with this potentially
strengthening enough to generate some lakeshore flooding
concerns along the south shore of the lake from roughly niagara
county east to monroe county. Latest guidance keeps the
strength of the winds just below a critical threshold to drive
waves high enough for the issuance of a lakeshore flood watch at
this point but will continue to be closely monitored.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Church thomas
near term... Church thomas
short term... Smith
long term... Wood
aviation... Church
marine... Church thomas
tides coastal flooding... Jjr smith


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 6 mi47 min Calm G 4.1 71°F 1009.8 hPa (+0.7)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 13 mi47 min ENE 1.9 G 4.1 71°F 1009.1 hPa (+0.6)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 19 mi47 min 72°F 1009.8 hPa (+1.1)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 30 mi47 min NE 5.1 G 7 74°F 1008.6 hPa (+0.8)65°F
45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax 33 mi47 min NE 1.9 G 3.9 72°F 73°F1009.4 hPa (+0.8)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 37 mi107 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 70°F 69°F1 ft1009.1 hPa (+1.0)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 44 mi47 min 73°F 1008.8 hPa (+0.8)
45142 - Port Colborne 46 mi107 min ENE 9.7 G 12 75°F 74°F1 ft1008.1 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY15 mi54 minENE 610.00 miOvercast72°F64°F76%1008.7 hPa

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S4NE4NE7E8E7E5E4NE6NE6NE5NE6
1 day agoSW5SW5SW3SW3SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW6NW4W9NW9
G17
NW12NW11NW10NW8NW5NW6W4NW3
2 days agoCalmW4NW4NW5NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S5S6SW6N16
G25
E15SE8S7S6S7SW7SW8S7SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.