Monday, May27, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Haven, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 8:37PM Monday May 27, 2019 1:08 AM EDT (05:08 UTC) Moonrise 1:32AMMoonset 12:33PM Illumination 43% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201905262100;;499264 Fzus51 Kbuf 261732 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 132 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-262100- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 132 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
This afternoon..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Light and variable winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Scattered Thunderstorms with a chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 47 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Haven, NY
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location: 43.32, -76.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 270112
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
912 pm edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
Dry weather will prevail as surface high pressure builds into
the region tonight. Dry weather will then persist through the
remainder of the holiday weekend... Before a wavy frontal
boundary pushes into our region and brings a return to unsettled
weather for most if not all of the upcoming work week.

Near term through Monday
Tonight will be quiet and dry areawide as high pressure over
manitoba and the upper great lakes builds into the region behind
a weak cold front. Recent rainfall will combine with clearing
and light winds and patchy fog is possible. The best chance
will be across the western southern tier where dewpoints will be
slightly higher than areas to the north. Fog or low clouds are
also possible across the lakes and may move towards the southern
shores by morning. Overnight lows to settle into the upper 40s
and lower 50s.

For the memorial day holiday... The center of the surface ridge
will settle directly across southern ontario and quebec. While
a shortwave diving southeastward across quebec province will try to
push a very weak cold front through this ridge and into our
region... The lack of upper support and only limited moisture
accompanying this boundary will result in this generating little
more than some partial cloud cover across lake ontario and the north
country. Otherwise it will be a simply salubrious day with a fair
amount of sunshine only giving way to some increasing mid and high
clouds across far western new york late... And high temperatures
mostly peaking in the upper 60s and lower 70s... Save for the south
shores of both lakes where an onshore flow off the chilly lake
waters will help to keep conditions notably cooler.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday night
Monday night, a surface base ridge to our northeast will likely
keep the area precipitation free, at least for the first half
of the night. With that said, an advancing warm front will be in
the process of lifting to the northeast which with moisture
ramping up (pw values nearing 1.5 inches) will likely lead to
increasing chances for showers and or thunderstorm by daybreak
Tuesday. Showers and storms will continue for a significant
portion of the day Tuesday as a weak wave tracks across new york
state. With its passage late in the day evening, showers and
storms will decrease in coverage until the next stronger wave
arrives as we head into Wednesday, more on that a bit later.

Lows Monday night will have a wide range with upper 40s across
the north country to the mid and upper 50s south of lake
ontario. Highs Tuesday will follow a similar pattern with mid to
upper 60s east of lake ontario(a bit cooler)and upper 70s near
80f elsewhere.

Tuesday night, the next wave will quickly race out of the midwest
and track into s. Ontario on its way towards western quebec by
Wednesday. While it tracks ene it will nudge a warm front northward
and then send a prefrontal trough across the area on
Wednesday Wednesday evening. With ample moisture in place and
supporting 40-50 knot LLJ yet again its likely another round of
showers and thunderstorms will be possible some of which could be
strong to severe. Following the passage of this feature convective
chances should then tail off again to a degree Wednesday night.

Highs Wednesday will likely be the warmest day of this period with
temperatures pushing into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows Tuesday
night will range from the mid and upper 50s across the north country
to lower 60s south of lake ontario. Wednesday night, lows areawide
will be in the 60s by day break Thursday.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
The overall pattern over north america during this period will be
dominated by an anomalously deep and persistent closed low that will
be anchored in the vicinity of james bay. Interestingly... The return
interval for such a feature in that area at this time of year is
roughly once in a ten year period. The importance of this closed low
is that shortwaves rotating about its periphery will not only
produce times of unsettled weather during this period... But it will
also guarantee that we will not experience any true summer warmth
for the foreseeable future. The latter will due to the suppression
of the sub tropical ridge that typically resides over the deep south
at this time of year. Overall... Temperatures during this period
as we head into june will average within a couple degrees of normal.

Now some day to day details.

A mature storm system over the northern plains on Wednesday will
open up and eject energy out across the upper great lakes and mid
western states Wednesday night and early Thursday. As this energy
becomes entrained into the cyclonic flow in the northern branch... It
will slow the progress of a cold front that will be in process of
dropping south from georgian bay and lake huron. This will be
achieved by encouraging a wave or two to develop along the boundary.

In any case... The wavy frontal boundary is forecast to settle across
the lower great lakes Thursday afternoon and night. For what its
worth... The timing and evolution of this scenario looks more
realistic from the perspective of the ecmwf... But will rely more on
the ensembles for the resulting high chc to likely pops. Its not out
of the question that this event could yield an inch or more of rain
for parts of the region.

Confidence in the forecast for Friday is below normal... As there is
a large variance in the projected position of the aforementioned
frontal boundary between the medium range ensemble packages. Will
raise pops to slgt chc to cover this uncertainty... But am still
obviously heavily leaning towards an improving and mainly dry day.

High pressure should then build across the region Friday night and
Saturday... With fairly high confidence that fair dry weather can be
expected.

Another frontal boundary on Sunday should support at least the
chance for some showers to end the weekend.

Aviation 01z Monday through Friday
Vfr conditions will prevail tonight. Patchy fog is possible
especially across the western southern tier where kjhw may drop
to MVFR ifr by Monday morning.

Tonight and Monday...VFR conditions and dry quiet weather should
prevail as high pressure builds southeastward and across our
region.

Outlook...

Monday night...VFR with a chance of showers thunderstorms and
associated MVFR.

Tuesday through Thursday...VFR MVFR with scattered to occasionally
more numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Friday...VFR.

Marine
West-northwest winds (strongest across central and eastern
portions of lake ontario) will continue this evening and will
remain well below advisory levels. Winds will then veer to
northwesterly and lighten tonight... Before turning more
northerly on Monday as the center of surface high pressure
slides into southern ontario and quebec.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will then return Monday night
and Tuesday and last through most of the upcoming week as a wavy
frontal boundary pushes northward into the lower great lakes... With
the next chance for advisory-level southwesterlies appearing to arrive
between Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Hsk jjr
short term... Ar
long term... Rsh
aviation... Hsk jjr
marine... Hsk jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 14 mi57 min W 2.9 G 7 55°F 1014.7 hPa46°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 33 mi69 min WNW 5.8 G 7.8 51°F 45°F1 ft1014.4 hPa (+1.2)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 42 mi39 min W 5.8 G 5.8 43°F 37°F1015.5 hPa40°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 47 mi69 min W 7 G 8.9 60°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 49 mi57 min 59°F 1014.7 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY17 mi75 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds53°F45°F74%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW6SW6S4SW5SW5W8W10W10W12W11
G21
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W13NW10NW9NW9NW7W6W4W4CalmCalm
1 day ago3E3CalmCalm3SE454S45S7S106SE5SE86SE7SE5S9
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2 days agoW12
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W10W9NW8NW7NW9W12
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NW11W8NW7NW7NW4CalmCalmE3CalmSE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.