Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Haven, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 6:16PM Thursday October 19, 2017 5:21 AM EDT (09:21 UTC) Moonrise 6:01AMMoonset 5:39PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 719 Pm Edt Wed Oct 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday evening through Friday morning...
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mainly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day, then showers likely Monday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
LOZ044 Expires:201710190315;;062775 FZUS51 KBUF 182319 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 719 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-190315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Haven, NY
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location: 43.32, -76.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 190842
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
442 am edt Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will remain anchored along the mid-atlantic coastline
through the week with plentiful sunshine and above normal
temperatures.

Near term through tonight
Expansive high pressure will remain centered across the mid-atlantic
states through the period. The strength of the mid upper level ridge
will steer the next upper level wave well north of the great lakes
through northern ontario and james bay. The weakening cold frontal
trough extending southward from this system will sweep across
western and north central new york during the afternoon. This will
be a dry frontal passage, with just a few hours of cloud cover.

Otherwise, it will be a breezy day, especially across the lake
plains where winds will gust to 35 mph this afternoon. Highs will
again be above normal, with upper 60s in most locations and around
70 from the genesee valley into central ny.

Winds will diminish this evening, but the dry air and lingering
graident flow will limit fog development to only the deepest
southern tier valleys. Lows will be in the 40s.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
Friday and Saturday a large and expansive area of high pressure will
remain over the east coast, with abundant sunshine and above normal
temperatures. Highs 10 degrees above normal Friday will be some 15-
20 degrees above normal Saturday as +12 to +14c 850 hpa temperatures
reach our region with the surface high slightly displaced to the
east. Dry ground and a light southerly wind should push temperatures
into the 70s, with an 80f reading not out of the question somewhere
across the lake plain genesee valley... Which is typically our
warmest area. Record highs may be just out of reach, which include
for this date: buffalo 81f 1894, rochester 80f 2007 and watertown
78f 1979.

Dewpoints will begin to slowly rise Friday night and into the
weekend... Such that valley fog at night will be possible through
southwest nys.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
A progressive amplified mid-level pattern across the CONUS will
bring changeable weather from this weekend into next week. Sunday a
seasonably strong 500mb ridge over the east coast with surface high
pressure over the western atlantic will bring another gorgeous day
with a mix of sunshine and clouds across western and north central
new york. Southerly flow will help temperatures run 15 to 20 degrees
above normal with highs forecast to climb into the low to mid 70s.

A change to cooler and more unsettled weather then arrives with the
start of next week. A fast moving shortwave trough and surface cold
front are forecast to shift into the western central great lakes
Sunday night. Differences in timing of when the front reaches
western ny show up by Monday with the 00z GFS and most of its gefs
members shifting the front over our region during the day Monday
while the ec and canadian models are about 12 hours slower holding
it off until Monday night. Have taken down pops a bit to low chance
range on Monday favoring the ec timing then bringing likely pops
into wny for Monday night. Temperatures will remain on the mild side
Sunday night and Monday with strong cold advection not arriving
until later in the week.

Tuesday and Wednesday should feature unsettled conditons as the
frontal zone stalls across our region and one or more waves of low
pressure shift north along the front. Have included likely pops for
Tuesday as both GFS ec models are in agreement with a surface low
lifting north across new york. The GFS shows a potentially moisture
rich airmass will move into place along the front with a connection
to the gulf of mexico could push pwats above an inch or more. Wpc
day 6-7 QPF shows a swath of 1.25-2.5 inches of rain over western
and central new york.

Chance pops are featured for Wednesday as the mid-level trough and
cold advection support potential showery weather. Temperatures will
run near normal (mid-upper 50s) Tuesday then below normal for
Wednesday as 850mb temps dip to or below zero 0 which would support
temps likely struggling to break above 50 in many locations.

No snow is expected through day 7 Wednesday but temps may cool
enough Wednesday night for potential some wet snow to mix in in the
higher terrain. Stay tuned.

Aviation 09z Thursday through Monday
Vfr conditions will prevail through the entire 06z TAF cycle as high
pressure remains anchored over the mid atlantic states, with a ridge
extending northward into the eastern great lakes. There will be
enough gradient wind overnight to prevent river valley fog across
the western southern tier. 35 kt winds at 2k ft will largely
remain aloft, resulting in llws early this morning.

A weakening cold front will move across the region this afternoon
and evening. This front will remain dry, with a few hours of clouds
with bases around 5k feet. It will become quite breezy today, with
gusts of around 20 knots for much of the area, and around 30 knots
northeast of lakes erie and ontario.

Outlook...

Friday through Sunday...VFR except for local ifr in river valley fog
each late night and early morning.

Monday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers.

Marine
Winds will increase this afternoon as the pressure gradient over the
eastern great lakes increases. This will result in small craft
headlines for most of the waters with increasing southwesterly
winds which will shift to the west this evening. Winds will
diminish on Friday as the surface ridge axis moves back closer
to area.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 2 am edt Friday
for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 8 pm edt
this evening for lez020.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 11 am
edt Friday for loz043-044.

Small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 11 am edt
Friday for loz045.

Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm
edt this evening for slz022-024.

Synopsis... Apffel
near term... Apffel
short term... Thomas
long term... Smith thomas
aviation... Apffel
marine... Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 14 mi52 min S 8.9 G 12 55°F 1019.1 hPa44°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 33 mi82 min SSW 18 G 19 61°F 61°F3 ft1018.4 hPa (-1.0)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 42 mi92 min S 14 G 16 60°F 61°F2 ft1018.6 hPa (-0.6)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 47 mi82 min SSW 9.9 G 14 59°F 1020 hPa (-0.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 49 mi52 min 56°F 1018.7 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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S7
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G9
S7

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S9S9SW9
G16
S8S7S7S5S5S3S4S6S5S7SW6S4S4CalmS3SW3S4S4SW7--
1 day agoNW11NW11NW10
G17
NW9NW9W5W4NW3NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3Calm34S6S8S8
2 days ago------------------------------------NW7NW6N7NW9NW12NW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.