Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Haven, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:52PM Thursday June 21, 2018 4:16 AM EDT (08:16 UTC) Moonrise 1:25PMMoonset 12:53AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 401 Pm Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
Tonight..North winds 10 knots or less. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..East winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Occasional showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then showers likely Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 63 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201806210330;;844292 FZUS51 KBUF 202001 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 401 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-210330-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Haven, NY
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location: 43.32, -76.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 210549
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
149 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

Synopsis
A weak cold front will cross the region early this morning with
little more than a modest increase in cloud cover. High pressure
will then build into the region Thursday afternoon through Friday,
bringing dry and comfortable conditions. A storm system will
approach for the weekend bringing rain showers and some rumbles of
thunder on Saturday, with a few showers lingering into Sunday.

Near term through today
Variable cloud cover across the region this morning, with the
greatest concentration across the so. Tier. A surface high will
push toward southern ontario canada early this morning.

Meanwhile a shortwave rounding a longwave trough over eastern
canada will drive a backdoor cold front across quebec, northern
new york and new england tonight, before dropping south across
western and central ny early Thursday. Shower activity along
this front will remain near the upper level support well outside
the forecast area, though a stray shower or two may clip
eastern jefferson northern lewis counties overnight. Lows
tonight will drop back into the 50s with a light wind.

High pressure will continue to build across the region Thursday in
the wake of the cold front. A brief period of clouds along and just
behind the cold front will give way to plenty of sunshine for the
afternoon as much drier air builds into the region out of southern
ontario. The result will be a phenomenal june day with highs in the
low to mid 70s and very low humidity.

Short term tonight through Saturday night
A nearly stacked low pressure system will move into the ohio valley
while high pressure slowly moves off the gulf of maine Thursday
night. Mostly clear conditions will continue Thursday night as
moisture stays confined southwest of the forecast area. Moisture
will begin to enter the region Friday and into the weekend as high
pressure moves off the northeast coast and low pressure progresses
eastward.

Low pressure will advance eastward Friday while a warm front
approaches the forecast area. Winds aloft will veer from the
southeast to south causing moisture to advect into the forecast
area. Overrunning will cause clouds to increase from south to north
Friday and light-intermittent rain will likely spread across western
ny through the afternoon. Since a dry airmass will still have its
hold on the region Friday, rain will be light and may only account
to trace amounts.

Warm air advection ramps up Friday night as 850mb winds increase to
30kts and the warm front moves into western ny. Rain will increase
in coverage as the stacked low pressure system moves near western
lake erie by Saturday morning. As the warm front moves northward and
into the north country Saturday, 65-70 deg dewpoints will spread
northward while a shortwave trough rounds the base of the low
pressure system. This will lead to more widespread showers and the
chance for thunderstorms. At this time, the area from the southern
tier to the southern shore of lake ontario has the best chance for
thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon. As the shortwave trough
moves eastward into Saturday night, the chance for thunderstorms
will expand into the north country.

Temperatures will be near normal Thursday night-Friday and become
above normal through the weekend.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Low pressure will track into the canadian maritimes through Sunday
with its associated cold front passing south across western and
north-central ny. All global models are showing plentiful lift and
moisture to support widespread showers ahead of and along the front
where we continue to forecast likely pops for showers. Instability
parameters are very low so only included slight chance for thunder.

Lingering chances for showers are in place Sunday night as models
show the parent mid level trough axis crossing the eastern great
lakes. Temps Sunday should reach into the 70s during the afternoon
with dewpoints in the 60s ahead of the front still supporting
lingering humidity. Behind the front, dewpoints will slip back into
more comfortable levels in the 50s Sunday night where overnight
temps should slip back into the 50s with light northwest winds and
some breaks in sky cover.

Canadian high pressure then looks to build over nys Monday and
Tuesday in the wake of the storm system and mid level trough axis.

The high is then forecast to shift off the east coast through
Wednesday. This surface high will provide our region with dry
weather through mid week. Temps will be seasonable Monday then
rising a little above normal with upper 70s to low 80s possible
Tuesday and Wednesday as southerly 850mb winds advect warmer air
over the eastern great lakes.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
For the 06z tafsVFR flight conditions are found, and these
conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period with
light winds as surface high pressure remains near the region. A weak
cold front will drop across the north country early this morning,
with just an uptick inVFR clouds.

A warm front will approach wny late tonight. Mid and high level
clouds will begin to thicken across the region but mainly after 06z.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR.

Saturday...VFR MVFR... Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Sunday... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday...VFR.

Marine
A weak cold front will cross the lower great lakes late tonight and
early Thursday. Winds will become northeast behind the front, and a
brief surge of moderate northeasterlies will develop early Thursday
morning. This will produce a period of choppy wave action along the
south shore of lake ontario Thursday morning, but at this time the
period of stronger winds appears too brief to allow waves to ramp up
to 4 feet. Winds will quickly diminish by midday Thursday with
improving wave conditions during the afternoon.

High pressure will build across the lakes for the end of the work
week with optimal boating conditions. A low pressure system will
pass near the lakes over the weekend brining more unsettled weather,
however winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA at this
time.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Church hitchcock thomas
near term... Church hitchcock thomas
short term... Hsk
long term... Smith
aviation... Thomas
marine... Church hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 14 mi46 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 59°F 1009.4 hPa55°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 33 mi76 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 60°F 59°F1009.2 hPa (-0.6)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 42 mi86 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 63°F 61°F1009.2 hPa (-0.6)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 47 mi76 min NNW 5.1 G 5.1 61°F 1010.5 hPa (-0.3)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 49 mi46 min 58°F 1009.2 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY17 mi22 minN 01.25 miFog/Mist51°F46°F86%1009.5 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmS43CalmCalmSW3NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN10N7N5N11N11N11N12
G17
N8
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NW8NW8
G16
NW9NW8NW9NW7NW6W5CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS6S6S6SW6SW6SW7W9W14
G17
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G18
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G20
NW9SW10SW7SW11W9W8W9NW7NW6W7NW5N8N5N7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.