Monday, December11, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Haven, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 4:31PM Monday December 11, 2017 4:28 AM EST (09:28 UTC) Moonrise 12:42AMMoonset 1:19PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 1231 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am est this morning...
Overnight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Lake effect snow. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable. Lake effect snow showers likely in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north and diminishing to 10 knots or less in the afternoon. Snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Lake effect snow in the evening, then lake effect snow showers overnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
LOZ044 Expires:201712111000;;714603 FZUS51 KBUF 110613 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1231 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-111000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Haven, NY
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location: 43.32, -76.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 110922
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
422 am est Mon dec 11 2017

Synopsis
Remnant weak lake snows southeast of lakes erie and ontario will end
altogether this morning as high pressure briefly builds across the
region... With fair and largely dry weather otherwise prevailing
today. Low pressure will then cross the region tonight through
Tuesday night... Bringing periods of widespread accumulating snow
that will last through Wednesday. Several additional weak systems
will then cross the area late in the week along with additional
chances of snow.

Near term through tonight
Regional surface analysis as of 0830z shows the arctic cold front
draped along a line from a south of buffalo to south of watertown.

In response to the continued southward advance of this boundary...

the lake ontario lake snows continue to slide southward and have
weakened into a broad area of light snow extending from northern
cayuga county eastward to lewis county. This activity will continue
to weaken and get shunted southward early this morning... With much
weaker multi-banded lake snows then setting up across areas southeast
of lake ontario in the rather sheared northwesterly flow regime
following the frontal passage.

Meanwhile off lake erie... A much broader and weaker area of lake
enhanced snow continues across the higher terrain of the western
southern tier and southern erie wyoming counties... Just out ahead of
the arctic cold front. Like its lake ontario counterpart... This too
will continue to weaken and slide southward with the passage of the
arctic front... With only very weak multibanded lake snows setting up
within the sheared north-northwesterly flow in the wake of the
boundary
given the above expectations of largely weak and disorganized lake
snows to the southeast of the lakes (and only minor additional
accumulations)... All remaining lake effect snow warnings will be
cancelled with the forthcoming forecast update.

During the course of today... The remnant weak lake snows southeast
of both lakes will quickly fall apart altogether during the course
of this morning as weak high pressure slides eastward across our
region... The low level flow becomes rather light and even more
sheared... And inversion heights fall to between 3-5 kft. Otherwise
we can expect a welcome quiet and largely dry day under the
transient surface ridge... With daytime highs ranging from the lower
to mid 20s across the north country to the upper 20s near 30
elsewhere.

Tonight... Our brief period of fair and dry weather will quickly come
to an end... As a slowly strengthening surface low pushes eastward
from the upper great lakes. Increasing warm air advection isentropic
upglide out ahead of this system will result in widespread light
snow spreading across the region from west to east... With the snow
picking up a bit during the overnight hours as the main surface low
pushes to our western doorstep... And available moisture lift both
ramp up. At this point total nighttime snowfall accumulations appear
as if they will range from 1-2 inches... With a few spots potentially
receiving between 2-3 inches. Low temps will range from around 20
east of lake ontario to the mid 20s elsewhere and should occur
during the first half of the night... Before giving way to slowly
rising temps overnight in the warm advection regime out ahead of the
approaching surface low.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
Accumulating synoptic snows will transition to another
potentially significant lake effect snow event...

the clipper low will be in the process of passing across the region
Tuesday morning. Widespread accumulating synoptic snows will be
ongoing. Ascent from this storm looks to be driven by warm advection
with particularly impressive isentropic lift. 00z nam GFS gem all
pretty similar in QPF guidance and supportive of additional snowfall
amounts of 2-3 inches through Tuesday morning.

As the surface low starts to push across northern new york Tuesday
afternoon, winds will veer to west then northwest while becoming
rather gusty as cold advection sets in. Winds in the wake of the
systems cold front may peak near 45 mph, especially south of the low
center across the western southern tier driving wind chills into the
teens.

Later Tuesday into Wednesday, a transition will take place into
another potentially significant lake effect snow event. Lake
enhanced effect snows are expected to develop south or southeast of
the lakes as 850 mb temperatures cool in a northwest flow regime.

Profiles indicating many favorable lake effect parameters including
extreme over-lake instability, equilibrium heights rising to
near 15k feet and sufficient synoptic moisture and lift
intersecting the dendritic snow growth zone. Tuesday night into
Wednesday will likely be the most significant time period of
accumulating lake snows with equilibrium level peaking. Strong
winds could bring additional impacts with travel conditions
expected to be hazardous in heavy snow and blowing snow.

The core of the anomalously deep upper level low will pass over our
region Tuesday night and Wednesday which will bring the coldest air
yet this month with lows dipping into the single digits to teens
Tuesday night and only peaking in the teens to maybe 20 on
Wednesday. Lake effect then continues to look like it will begin to
weaken later Wednesday night as high pressure over the ohio valley
is forecast to nose north into western new york.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
Medium range guidance continues to indicate two more clipper lows
working across the great lakes later this week and next weekend. A
fair amount of uncertainty remains regarding the timing and
tracking of either of these clipper lows as well as any potenial
lake enhancement. Have continued broadbrush chance pops for snow
showers through Saturday until more certain details arise in newer
guidance. Temperatures will remain below average through the end of
the week, as the region will remain embedded within longwave
troughiness. The eastern trough may break down over the weekend
which would potentially allow warmer air to return to our region.

Blend of model temperature guidance indicates temps may rise back to
normal by Saturday and possibly above normal for Sunday. If this
occurs rain snow would be possible Sunday. Longer range guidance
suggests that this break from the cold may only be temporary, as a
longwave trough becomes re-established over the east in the week
following.

Aviation 09z Monday through Friday
Through this morning... Remnant weak lake snows and attendant
reductions to ifr MVFR east and southeast of both lakes erie and
ontario will continue to sink southward and eventually come to an
end... Leaving behind largely dry weather and mainlyVFR conditions
for the balance of the day.

Conditions will then deteriorate back to ifr from west to east
tonight as low pressure advances eastward across the great lakes and
spreads widespread light snow across the region.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday... Widespread ifr in periods of snow.

Thursday and Friday... Areas of MVFR ifr with snow showers likely.

Marine
An arctic cold front will finish crossing the lower great lakes
early this morning. In its wake... Weak high pressure will build
across the region today... With moderate northwesterlies tending
light and variable by midday early afternoon. As a result... Winds
and waves will fall below advisory levels during this morning... With
fairly quiet conditions then following for this afternoon.

Low pressure tracking eastward from the upper great lakes will then
pass directly overhead late tonight and Tuesday morning. Winds will
increase in the wake of this system Tuesday through Wednesday... With
another period of solid small craft advisory conditions expected
areawide. On lake erie... It is not out of the question that conditions
could approach or even reach marginal gale force levels from Tuesday
into early Tuesday evening... However at this point confidence in this
remains too low for a gale watch.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter storm watch from this evening through Wednesday
afternoon for nyz001>008-010>012-019-020-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for lez040-
041.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for
loz043-044.

Small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for
loz042-045.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Jjr
short term... Tma
long term... Smith
aviation... Jjr
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 14 mi41 min N 8 G 9.9 29°F 1012.7 hPa26°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 47 mi29 min W 8 G 9.9 29°F 1014.6 hPa (+1.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 49 mi41 min 28°F 1013.7 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY17 mi35 minWSW 42.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist28°F25°F88%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS6S53SE333SE43SE64SE53CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmSW5W6SW6SW6
2 days agoSW8SW10SW7SW10SW8SW9S11SW12S7S8S11S8S7S5S6S6S6S8S6S7S6S7S6S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.