Saturday, March23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Haven, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:22PM Saturday March 23, 2019 4:24 PM EDT (20:24 UTC) Moonrise 9:41PMMoonset 7:52AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201903232115;;806962 Fzus51 Kbuf 231821 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 221 Pm Edt Sat Mar 23 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-232115- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 221 Pm Edt Sat Mar 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday morning...
This afternoon..West winds to 30 knots. Sunny. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Clear. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. Sunny in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of rain showers in the evening, then a chance of snow and rain showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 36 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Haven, NY
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location: 43.32, -76.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 232018
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
418 pm edt Sat mar 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure centered over the ohio valley will keep skies clear
tonight. Notably milder air will push into the region Sunday with
partial sunshine helping the temperatures warm well into the 40s and
50s. A weak cold front pushing through the region Sunday night will
then bring a quick end to the warmer weather while helping to
generate some rain and wet snow showers. The first half of the new
work week will feature below normal temperatures despite a wealth of
sunshine.

Near term through Sunday
A 1028 mb surface high anchored over the ohio valley this afternoon
will drift off to our southeast tonight. The local area is all but
assured of cloud free skies tonight given the dry airmass. The
breezy conditions of this afternoon will diminish somewhat, but
there still will be a bit of a gradient tonight. Most areas will
have temperatures tonight fall into the 20s, but areas where winds
decouple will likely drop into the teens.

Notably milder air will push northward into the region as the
surface high shifts to the mid-atlantic coast and a weak baroclinic
zone drops down from southeastern canada. Many locations should
reach the upper 40s to mid 50s, but a southwest wind will keep
downwind lake areas including buffalo down in the lower to mid 40s.

Skies will start out mainly sunny before trending toward mostly
cloudy by afternoon with scattered rain showers approaching the
saint lawrence valley and the north country late in the day.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday night
Two weather systems will converge upon our region Monday
night... This being a cold front dropping southward from canada and
an area of low pressure coupled with an upper level shortwave
passing by just to our south. These features will bring chances for
mixed precipitation of rain and snow Monday evening and overnight
across the region. Moisture will be limited with both systems with
just chance pops remaining for the region. Overall precipitation
will be light, generally a tenth of an inch or less and any
accumulating snowfall will just coat the ground. Most if not all
precipitation will exit the region by Monday morning.

Following this system passage, high pressure and a large area of
subsidence will build towards our region Monday and Monday night.

We'll still remain under the influences of the upper level trough
Monday which may allow for some diurnally driven cumulus to form
across western and northern areas. Skies will clear Monday night and
with a dry airmass in place the temperatures will drop into the
teens, and possibly single digits across interior locations.

Tuesday afternoon the center of the surface high pressure will pass
across our region, with clear skies and light winds. With the core
of the cold air within the upper level trough now slightly to our
east our afternoon highs will be a little warmer with temperatures
reaching the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
It still looks like we will get our first prolonged period of
'spring' weather during the latter half of next week. High
pressure will push off the new england coast on Wednesday, but
upper level riding will keep us dry through at least Thursday.

This will also set up a southerly flow which will bring warmer
air into the region. High temperatures on Wednesday will range
from the mid 40s to lower 50s, and some spots may hit 60 by
Thursday. Friday will probably be the warmest day, with
temperatures rising well into the 60s at many locations. In
general, the forecast hedges above consensus temperature
guidance, especially across the lake plains where the southerly
flow will result in extra warming due to downsloping. The lake
breeze will be a factor, but a ssw flow is forecast which may
help limit the impact of the lake breeze along the south shores
of the lakes.

An upper level trough will very gradually approach the region on
Friday, but the ridging will be slow to break down with 12z GFS ggem
model guidance largely keeping us dry for Friday also. Eventually,
low pressure will track across the great lakes region, with a cold
front likely to push across our region in the Saturday time frame.

The best chance for showers is Friday night or Saturday, but
precipitation amounts will probably be on the light side. This is
important to watch, since there will be considerable snow melt from
the warm temperatures in the black river heading into the weekend.

This could pose a risk for flooding, but this largely depends on how
much rain is with the cold front and trough.

Aviation 20z Saturday through Thursday
WidespreadVFR conditions are expected through tonight as high
pressure centered over the ohio valley slides to the mid-0atlantic
coast by Sunday. This will ensure clear skies across the area.

Westerly surface winds gusting to 30 knots at times through late
afternoon will back to southwest and lower to 8-12 kts tonight. The
only potential issue tonight will be some marginal low level wind
shear at both kroc and kart, where westerly winds of 40 knots will
be found just a couple thousand feet off the deck.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR.

Sunday night and Monday...VFR MVFR with a chance of rain and
snow showers.

Tuesday through Thursday...VFR.

Marine
A relatively tight surface pressure gradient between an exiting
storm system over the canadian maritimes and high pressure over the
ohio valley will keep small craft advisory conditions in place
throughout the lower great lakes into this evening, with winds and
waves not significantly subsiding on lake ontario until later
tonight and early Sunday.

A weak cold front will drop south across the region Sunday evening.

Light winds in the vicinity of the front will become northerly in
its wake and freshen to near small craft advisory levels overnight
and early Monday morning. Winds are likely to continue to increase
on lake ontario during the course of Monday, possibly leading to
another round of small craft advisories.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez020.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for
loz030.

Small craft advisory until 9 am edt Sunday for loz043-044.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for
loz042.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Sunday for loz045.

Synopsis... Tma
near term... Tma
short term... Thomas
long term... Apffel
aviation... Tma
marine... Tma


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 14 mi43 min 31°F 1020.3 hPa19°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 47 mi25 min WNW 19 G 25 35°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 49 mi43 min 36°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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W23
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NE6
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G15

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY17 mi31 minWNW 21 G 2810.00 miFair and Breezy32°F15°F50%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW17
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1 day agoSE6SE35SE5--SE554SE4SE45CalmS3W12NW8NW12W9NW12NW11NW14W13
G19
NW13NW13W13
G22
2 days agoSW6S5CalmE4CalmCalmS7S9S10
G18
S8SW8CalmSE4SE43S9S85SE7SE6465SE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.