Saturday, April29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Olcott, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:16PM Saturday April 29, 2017 7:21 AM EDT (11:21 UTC) Moonrise 7:58AMMoonset 11:03PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 1014 Pm Edt Fri Apr 28 2017
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. A chance of showers late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less building to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..East winds 20 to 25 knots. A chance of showers in the morning...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Sunday night..East winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northeast and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers with Thunderstorms likely. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ042 Expires:201704290900;;425628 FZUS51 KBUF 290214 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1014 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LOZ042-290900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Olcott, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.33, -78.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbuf 291043
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
643 am edt Sat apr 29 2017

Synopsis
A front will stall near the new york and pennsylvania border through
tonight and then will gradually push northward into western new york
on Sunday. This will result in scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms, although most of the weekend will remain dry and
mild. Warmer temperatures will return Monday, with showers and
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front which will cross the region
Monday evening.

Near term /through tonight/
Radar trends show the bulk of the showers along a stalled frontal
boundary well to our south, with scattered light showers or
sprinkles to the north of this. These will just clip western
new york this morning.

Today... Model consensus stalls the warm front just south of the
ny/pa border. The best chance for additional showers during the
afternoon will be across the southern tier. Most mesoscale guidance
develops another convective wave this afternoon, but this will
track along the boundary and mainly pass south of the area.

Expect a mainly dry day with just a small chance of showers
across the southern tier. Otherwise, there will be some breaks
of sunshine with highs in the lower to mid 60s in most areas.

The lake breeze will enhance the wnw gradient flow with cooler
temperatures near the lake shores.

Tonight... Developing low pressure across the central plains will
begin to influence the stalled frontal boundary an push it northward
into the region as a warm front. Meanwhile, the mid-level thermal
gradient will sharpen across southern ontario, with an area of rain
expected to develop late tonight. This may bring some showers, and
possibly a thunderstorm to western new york late tonight, with the
evening hours expected to be largely dry outside of possibly a stray
shower across far western new york. Lows will be in the 40s south of
lake ontario with upper 30s east of lake ontario. However,
temperatures will rise late in the night across the western southern
tier with the passage of the warm front.

Short term /Sunday through Tuesday/
A closed upper level low will meander across the southern plains
today through Sunday, and then towards the western corn belt states
by Monday morning. Ahead of the upper level low deep southerly flow
will transport moisture northward from the gulf of mexico.

At surface an area of low pressure forming near SW texas will slowly
track northward across the plains, deepening some by a trailing pv
anomaly. This surface low will nudge an elevated warm front
northward, across the lower lakes Sunday and to lake ontario and
east of lake ontario Sunday night. Instability trailing this warm
front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
day Sunday and into Sunday night. Greatest chances for storms will
come along and north of the warm front. Pwats rising to an inch, and
towards an inch and a third north of the warm front will fuel these
storms. Though instability will be greater south of the warm front,
there will still feature a decent amount of lift north of the warm
front, and it is this lift that will likely form much of the rain
showers and thunderstorms through Sunday night. Greatest rainfall
totals Sunday and Sunday night will likely lie along lake ontario
and points eastward. However instability south of the warm front
will still have chances of forming convection, and will continue
with chances pops, with any thundertorm bringing locally heavy
downburst of rain.

There will be a great deal of temperature range Sunday, as northeast
and easterly flow across much of the CWA maintain temperatures in
the 50s and lower 60s. However a southerly flow will edge northward
towards the so. Tier Sunday where a few locations will climb into
the mid 70s.

Monday will likely start the day dry, warm and humid as our region
lies within the warm sector of this midwest storm system. A line of
storms will likely form across the western lake erie waters midday
Monday, then reaching wny later in the afternoon. These storms will
have the potential to become strong to severe as a LLJ increases
ahead of the upper level low. 0-6 km bulk shear wind values rise to
65 to 75 knots, and dewpoints rising into the lower 60s supporting
sbcape values of a 1000 j/kg or more along with lift ahead of an
approaching cold front should be more than enough to form strong
thunderstorms. There will be a little concern that cloud cover,
especially over the niagara frontier may limit some of the
instability and strength of the storms, while farther to the east,
across the genesee valley and finger lakes region more ample
sunshine will be possible. These storms will continue through the
evening hours, tracking across the cwa. As they reach the eastern
lake ontario region, likely during the evening or late evening
hours, the daytime instability will be waning, and reducing the
strength of the convection.

Temperatures Monday will rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s, with
mid 80s possible within the southern genesee valley. Highs Monday
will likely not be as high as this past Thursday, as 850 hpa
temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, and there will likely be
a bit more cloud potential.

Tuesday moist cyclonic flow will continue across our region as the
upper level low, and surface low pass by to our northwest. Gusty
winds will be likely Tuesday, especially northeast of the lakes, and
across the lake plains where gusts could reach 40 mph. A low level
jet of 45 to 50 knots will reside just above the surface, near 2-3k
feet. However the clouds through the day will limit the daytime
mixing height, with uncertainty still existing as to how strong
these gusts will become. Will continue to mention the strong wind
potential, as well as the strong to severe thunderstorms in the hwo
for now. Temperatures Tuesday will be much cooler, with highs ranging
through the 50s across the region.

Long term /Tuesday night through Friday/
Cool and unsettled weather look to be the norm for most days over
the next few weeks as a mean longwave trough remains in place over
the great lakes and northeast, with frequent shortwaves and
associated surface lows bringing periods of showers and fresh
deliveries of cool air.

Tuesday night and Wednesday the deep upper level trough over the
great lakes will move east across quebec and weaken, but will still
maintain enough influence across our region to keep below normal
temperatures in place right through the end of next week. 850mb
temps run from -2c to -4c Wednesday depending on model of choice,
and only improve to around +1c by Friday.

The weather will remain unsettled as well. Tuesday night and
Wednesday the eastward moving trough will combine with cool air
aloft and remaining wrap around moisture to support scattered
showers, especially across the higher terrain with an added boost
from upslope flow. It should briefly dry out Wednesday night as a
bubble of high pressure builds over the eastern great lakes and new
england.

By Thursday and Friday of next week another trough is forecast to
dig into the eastern us, and potentially phase and close off into a
mid level closed low. An associated low will form along or inland of
the east coast and move slowly northward. If this materializes, it
will spread clouds and more showers into the region for the end of
the week.

Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/
For the 12z TAF cycle skies are overcast across the region, but
still mainly in theVFR category. Some light showers or
sprinkles will move across western new york this morning, but
should generally light with continuedVFR conditions. The
exception is across the southern tier where there is a bit more
low level moisture and a potential for MVFR or even ifr
conditions this morning. In general, suspect guidance is
overdone but there are patchy ifr CIGS along the lake erie
shoreline which may move into jhw this morning.

After this, expect mainlyVFR conditions with MVFR conditions
at jhw. These trends should continue through this evening, with
only very small chances for showers across western new york.

These chances will increase late in the night as showers become
more numerous, with CIGS expected to lower to MVFR toward
daybreak Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

Monday... MVFR to locally ifr with showers and thunderstorms
likely.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

Marine
A frontal boundary will be draped across the lower great lakes
this weekend, though winds and waves will remain minimal
through this evening.

Strengthening east to northeasterly winds will bring small
craft advisory conditions to the western lake ontario nearshores
for Sunday. Another, stronger storm system may bring another
round of thunderstorms early next week, with high end small
craft conditions likely returning on the lakes by Tuesday.

Tides/coastal flooding
East to northeast winds will increase late tonight and Sunday,
with waves building across western portions of lake ontario.

This combined with already high levels on lake ontario has the
potential to result in lakeshore flooding along the shoreline.

There is still uncertainty concerning the placement of the
highest wave heights since even a slight shift to the more
easterly direction would push the highest waves to the canadian
shoreline. A lakeshore flood watch is in effect for niagara and
orleans counties.

Climate
The last days of april will finish with above normal temperatures,
warm enough that it will send our climate sites towards a top 5
to 10 warmest april on record. Below are the warmest aprils on
record.

Buffalo
rank... .Value (f)... ..Year
1... ... ..51.3... ... ... 1921
2... ... ..51.1... ... ... 2010
3... ... ..51.0... ... ... 1955
4... ... ..50.9... ... ... 2008
5... ... ..50.8... ... ... 1878
current april average temperature through april 28th: 50.4f
rochester
rank... .Value (f)... ..Year
1... ... ..52.6... ... ... 1878
2... ... ..52.5... ... ... 1921
3... ... ..52.4... ... ... 2010
4... ... ..52.3... ... ... 2008
5... ... ..51.4... ... ... 1915
current april average temperature through april 28th: 51.5f
watertown
rank... .Value (f)... ..Year
1... ... ..49.1... ... ... 1987
2... ... ..48.7... ... ... 1955
3... ... ..48.7... ... ... 2010
4... ... ..48.3... ... ... 1968
5... ... ..48.2... ... ... 2008
current april average temperature through april 28th: 47.6f
temperature records for buffalo and rochester begin 1871, while
watertown's history is a bit shorter, with temperature records
beginning in 1949.

Buf watches/warnings/advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
evening for nyz001-002.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 am Sunday to 2 am edt Monday for
loz042-043.

Synopsis... Apffel
near term... Apffel
short term... Thomas
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Apffel
marine... Apffel/tma
tides/coastal flooding... Apffel/tma
climate... Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 1 mi82 min SSW 5.1 G 7 55°F 1016.3 hPa (+0.7)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 20 mi82 min S 1.9 G 2.9 53°F 1015.6 hPa (+1.0)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 24 mi64 min 52°F 1016.2 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 33 mi64 min SSW 7 G 8 50°F 1015.4 hPa48°F
45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax 34 mi82 min NW 12 G 16 48°F 45°F1 ft1016 hPa (+2.0)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 44 mi82 min N 12 G 14 44°F 42°F1016.7 hPa (+2.2)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 48 mi64 min 51°F 1016.1 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
Last
24hr
SW12
SW11
G17
SW9
W9
W10
SW12
G15
S9
SW8
S6
SW5
G8
S7
S6
SW7
S4
SE1
G4
SE5
S4
G8
S11
G14
S9
SW10
SW8
SW9
SW7
SW5
G8
1 day
ago
SE6
G9
SE7
SE5
SE5
S9
W3
N2
W12
W3
SW2
SW9
G13
SW7
G10
S7
G10
W8
SW17
SW18
SW15
SW17
SW14
G17
SW9
G15
SW11
G17
SW9
G12
SW10
G13
2 days
ago
E3
E6
S3
NE2
W6
W5
W7
SW2
NW5
N1
G4
N8
NW9
NE7
NE7
NW2
N3
N2
SE4
E4
E3
E3
SE4
E5
G8

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY20 mi29 minNW 410.00 miOvercast57°F48°F72%1016.5 hPa

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
Last 24hrSW10SW13
G17
SW13SW18
G25
SW14
G21
SW14SW13SW15
G21
SW11SW9S8S9SW10S10S7S9SW8S8SW9SW7SW7W8NW3NW4
1 day agoSE7S7S7SW10S11S10S9W9N9NE7NE3W23
G29
W11
G20
SW13S9SW13SW15SW11SW10SW12SW11SW12SW9SW9
2 days agoE6E5CalmNE3E3N7NE7E8CalmNE10N8N8NE6E8NW6NW5CalmS3CalmCalmSE3E3E4E4

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (7,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.