Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Olcott, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 7:30PM Friday March 22, 2019 8:29 PM EDT (00:29 UTC) Moonrise 8:37PMMoonset 7:29AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 740 Pm Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday evening...
Tonight..Northwest winds to 30 knots. A chance of snow showers early. Waves 6 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Sunny. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Clear. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Sunny in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
LOZ042 Expires:201903230315;;770414 FZUS51 KBUF 222340 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 740 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-230315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Olcott, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.33, -78.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbuf 230009
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
809 pm edt Fri mar 22 2019

Synopsis
A strong area of low pressure moving northward along the maine coast
will bring accumulating snows tonight. The greatest amounts will be
found across the higher terrain east of lake ontario. The snow will
quickly taper off from west to east later tonight and early Saturday
east of lake ontario. Dry weather will then prevail for the rest of
the weekend. Temperatures will stay below normal through Saturday,
then quickly warm again on Sunday.

Near term through Saturday
Regional observations show the western expansion of the
precipitation shield slowly expanding west across the region
with moderate to heavy snowfall being reported east of lake
ontario across oswego and n. Cayuga with rapidly deteriorating
conditions. The deep coastal low along the new england coast
line responsible for the wintry conditions will continue to
slowly move nne away from the region towards the gulf of st.

Lawrence tonight. Meanwhile, a strong upper level low tracking
across pa this evening will punch under the base of the coastal
low and then phase with it by Saturday morning. This will
directly affect areas east of lake ontario as most of our region
will remain on the fringes of the main synoptic precipitation
shield of this coastal low. Model guidance continues to show
this evening a well developed trowal (trough of warm air aloft)
in the northwest quadrant of the east coast low, which is
enhancing snowfall for points southeast and east of lake ontario
tonight.

Otherwise, a majority of our CWA (wny) will continue to be affected
by the second upper level low over pa and wrap around upslope
precipitation for the first half of tonight. With chilly cyclonic
nnw'erly flow, upslope flow lake enhanced snow will add some
additional snowfall to the region east and southeast of both lakes
tonight. However, with marginal h850 temperatures (-10c and
-12c) filtering across the lakes accumulations will not be
overly impressive and hampered by a drier airmass slowly
advecting into the area over the course of tonight. Outside of
the the snowfall, surface winds will remain elevated as a
tightly packed pressure gradient exists across the lower great
lakes between the coastal low and the incoming ridge of high
pressure. Expect gusty northwest winds in the 30-40 mph range,
with the highest gusts along the south shore of lake ontario.

Storm total accumulations will vary widely across the area,
dependent on both elevation and proximity to the coastal low. The
greatest amounts most definitely be found across the higher
terrain of the tug hill and western foothills of the
adirondacks, where totals may reach 8-12 inches. The surrounding
lower elevations of jefferson, lewis, oswego, n.Cayuga, and
wayne counties will see 3-6 inches. Amounts will rapidly drop
off farther west, with minimal amounts generally found at
lower elevations, trace up to an inch. The higher terrain of
southern erie and wyoming counties and the chautauqua ridge will
see 1-3 inches, fueled by upslope flow. Lows tonight will range
in the low to mid 20s at lower elevations and teens for higher
terrain.

The deep coastal low will move out into the canadian maritimes and
begin to strip low level moisture away with its departure tonight
and into early Saturday. Following its departure, high pressure and
building subsidence across the lower lakes will allow snow to end
rapidly from west to east across wny then east of lake ontario by
early Saturday morning. This will bring a good deal of sunshine to
the region by Saturday afternoon. It will still be quite cold and
blustery, with highs in the upper 30s at lower elevations and lower
30s for higher terrain. Winds will continue to gust in the 25 to 35
mph range, strongest along the south shore of lake ontario and
across higher terrain.

Short term Saturday night through Monday night
An area of high pressure and wealth of dry air behind the recently
departed storm system will bring clear skies Saturday night that
will remain through early Sunday. Temperatures at 925 hpa of +2 to
+4c combined with the dry airmass will allow for afternoon
temperatures to reach well into the 50s across the so. Tier and
genesee valley finger lakes. A lake influenced cold southwest flow
will lower mixing layer heights and temperatures downwind of the
great lakes, with highs likely in the mid to upper 40s.

Two weather systems will converge upon our region early next
week... This being a cold front dropping southward from canada, and
an area of low pressure coupled with an upper level shortwave
passing by just to our south. These features will begin to increase
cloud cover Sunday afternoon, with chances for mixed precipitation
of rain and snow Sunday night and through the first half of Monday.

Greatest moisture will be associated with the storm system to our
west which will bring low likely pops to our area by early Monday
morning. Overall precipitation will be light, generally a tenth of
an inch or less and any accumulating snowfall will just coat the
ground.

Following this system passage, high pressure and a large area of
subsidence will build towards our region later Monday and Monday
night. We'll still remain under the influences of the upper level
trough Monday which may allow for some diurnally driven cumulus to
form across western and northern areas. Skies will clear Monday
night with temperatures dropping back into the teens, and possibly
single digits across interior locations.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
The weather cannot get much more uneventful than what we will
experience during this period... But then again... For this time of
year we should be thankful for the dull and boring. It could be a
lot worse. That being said... There is high confidence that we will
have precipitation free weather through this three day period with
notable day to day warming. While temperatures will average nearly
10 degrees below normal on Tuesday... We will warm to roughly 10
degrees above normal for Thursday.

The reason for the respite in active weather will be progressive
ridge that move from the rockies on Tuesday to the east coast on
Thursday. In fact... Many of the medium range ensembles of both the
gfs (ie gefs) and ECMWF suggest that this pattern will further
evolve into a rex block along the east coast. This would establish a
deepening southerly flow over the lower great lakes (just outside of
this seven day forecast) that could support temperatures in the 60s
and even the lower 70s by Saturday. While those temperatures can be
debated... It is highly likely that we will at least experience above
normal mercury readings for both Friday and Saturday.

Interestingly... This scenario is not supported by the 6 to 10 day
temperature outlook from the climate prediction center. Stay tuned.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
Deep low pressure system will continue to move nne along the coast
of maine producing widespread precipitation for locations east of
lake ontario. Precipitation has transitioned over to snow at kart
with lifr expected a significant portion of the night east of
lake ontario. With that said, further west primarily MVFRVFR
conditions can be expect at kbuf kiag where lake enhanced snows
will only have minimal influences at these terminals.

Elsewhere, upslope flow and lake enhanced snows east and
southeast of both lakes will impact kroc and kjhw with MVFR ifr
conditions the first half of tonight.

Late tonight, snow will rapidly end from west to east across wny and
a bit later east of lake ontario early Saturday morning, with vsby
returning toVFR. Low clouds will quickly erode as high pressure
builds into the great lakes, with CIGS returning toVFR from west to
east on Saturday.

Outlook... Sunday...VFR.

Sunday night and Monday...VFR MVFR with a chance of rain and
snow showers.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

Marine
A strong area of low pressure will continue to move nne along the
maine coast through tonight before exiting into the canadian
maritimes Saturday. Increasing northwest flow in the wake of this
system will produce high end small craft advisory conditions, with
winds up to 30 knots on lake ontario tonight and Saturday. Winds
will diminish Saturday night and Sunday on lake erie, but moderate
westerly winds may still produce lower end small craft advisory
conditions on lake ontario.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter storm warning until noon edt Saturday for nyz006>008.

Winter weather advisory until 8 am edt Saturday for -005.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Saturday for
lez040-041. Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Saturday for
loz030. Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Sunday for
loz043>045. Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt Saturday for
loz042.

Synopsis... Hitchcock
near term... Hitchcock
short term... Thomas
long term... Apffel
aviation... Ar hitchcock
marine... Ar hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 1 mi30 min WNW 24 G 32 30°F 1010.2 hPa (+3.8)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 24 mi48 min 29°F 1009.9 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 33 mi42 min NW 23 G 28 30°F 33°F1009.9 hPa12°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 48 mi48 min 29°F 1010.6 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
Last
24hr
S1
SE1
SW4
S4
S4
S3
SW5
W9
SW10
SW10
SW10
SW8
SW8
SW7
W13
NW11
W8
G13
NW15
G21
NW17
G21
NW21
G26
NW24
G31
NW21
G26
NW24
G29
NW22
G27
1 day
ago
S2
W3
W6
SE4
S1
G4
NW3
NW2
E4
E3
G8
E4
G8
NE5
G8
NE6
E3
E4
S4
SE3
S4
SW2
S3
SW2
W3
SW6
S6
SW2
G5
2 days
ago
SE3
S3
S3
S1
SE2
SE4
SE5
SE5
G8
SE5
SE4
SE5
SE5
SE6
SE5
S7
S4
S2
SW3
SW4
W6
SW7
S3
SE3
SE3

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY20 mi37 minNW 18 G 2910.00 miOvercast and Breezy29°F18°F63%1010.9 hPa

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
Last 24hr--SW4W7NW13W15NW10W9W8W6W7W9W7W10--NW11NW13
G20
NW17
G23
NW18NW21
G31
NW29
G36
NW23
G30
NW23
G29
NW19
G29
NW18
G29
1 day agoE6E3CalmSW5CalmNE5E4SE7E5E5E7E3SE6SE8SE8SE8S7SW8SW8SW7N6CalmCalmNE3
2 days agoS7S6SW7SW3S4S3S3S3S4S5S7S7SW7SW9SW12
G17
SW12
G18
SW17SW14
G21
SW14
G21
SW10W8SW3CalmNE3

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (20,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.