Saturday, October21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Olcott, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 6:22PM Saturday October 21, 2017 11:37 AM EDT (15:37 UTC) Moonrise 8:12AMMoonset 6:49PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 1030 Am Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
This afternoon..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day, then occasional rain Monday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Occasional rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
LOZ042 Expires:201710212115;;187989 FZUS51 KBUF 211430 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1030 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-212115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Olcott, NY
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location: 43.33, -78.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 211412
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1012 am edt Sat oct 21 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will remain anchored along the mid-atlantic coastline
this weekend with dry weather and well above normal temperatures
continuing. The pattern will then become more unsettled early next
week with a slow moving cold front bringing rain, followed by cooler
temperatures.

Near term through tonight
Indian summer will be in full display across the region today... As
high pressure centered over the mid atlantic region will provide us
with plenty of sunshine. While the Sun will be filtered through high
clouds across the western counties... It will be more than enough
when combined with h85 temps in the teens to give us afternoon
temperatures in the 70s. Have raised temps by a degree or so... With
slightly higher bumps across the north country and in the valleys of
the SRN tier. This afternoons temperatures are more representative
of late august-early september.

Tonight... The heart of the surface high will move well offshore.

This will provide a strengthening southerly flow over the region that
will hold our temperatures up by more than 10 degrees from early
this morning. Mins will range from the upper 40s across parts of the
north country and in the cooler SRN tier valleys to the mid 50s
across the lake plains.

Short term Sunday through Tuesday
Sunday and Sunday night our warm, pleasant autumn weather will
continue... As abundant daytime sunshine and dry conditions persist.

With 850 hpa temperatures remaining near +12-14c, afternoon
temperatures at the surface should top out in the 70s, and possibly
a spot 80f reading or two. A light southerly flow Sunday night, and
increasing cirrus will maintain mild conditions with overnight lows
in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

The better part of Monday should shape up nice, especially from the
genesee valley eastward which should remain dry.

This morning a deep upper level trough of low pressure is found on
water vapor imagery is found over the rockies. Deep tropical
moisture is seen streaming northward from convection over the gulf
of mexico. A pacific shortwave raced across arizona this
morning... And will eventually leave a PV lobe over the southern
plains on Monday. Meanwhile a second pacific shortwave will deepen a
trough over the rockies and northern plains Monday, with a fair
amount of cooler air behind it. As this trough merges with the
lingering PV lobe over the southern plains Monday and Monday night
it will form a surface low Monday night over the ohio valley. It
still remains uncertain if the stronger forcing mechanisms will be
with this first shortwave or the second... But regardless a soon to
be negatively tilted upper level trough will form over the great
lakes. Cool air building in from the west will tighten a baroclinic
zone over the eastern great lakes Monday night and into
Tuesday... Forming an axis that will support moderate to heavy rain.

For the rain timing, showers will reach portions of wny through the
afternoon Monday, with rain becoming more widespread Monday night as
the first pacific shortwave (pv lobe over the southern plains) lifts
northward across the cwa. An upper level jet will be
strengthening... To the tune of 130 knots, with our region found in
the right entrance region. This will create additional lift, that
when coupled with mid level lift ahead of the shortwave that will be
interacting with +2 sd pwat (around 1.5 inches) widespread rain is
expected to form across wny later in the night. The amplified pattern
will create slow eastward movement to the rain... Such that chance
pops will hold on through the night for much of the north country.

Tuesday a deep longwave trough will be closing off... And negatively
tilted over the great lakes and lower ohio valley. Southerly flow of
rich moisture will feed occasional rain through the day... That again
may be moderate to heavy. The duration of the event, coupled with
deeper moisture feeding the intensity of the rain suggests that an
inch or two of rain is reasonable at this point for this event.

Relatively dry ground should be able to absorb much of this rain,
with small creeks and streams swelling to bankfull. Given the deep
southerly flow, training embedded convection could pose a localized
flooding problem... But tough to pin down where this would be at this
point in time.

There will be several surface waves along this frontal zone passing
across the country... With a deepening surface low likely passing
near our region Tuesday. The track of the low is still with much
uncertainty... Possibly tracking either just to our north, or south.

If the northward track pans out, Tuesday could feature some moderate
wind gusts.

Highs Tuesday will be in the lower 60s to the west, while mid to
upper 60s will occur towards the east.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday
As we push through Tuesday night... A dry slot should work across our
region within the occluded system. This will taper off the steady
rain to scattered showers from west to east... Possibly completely
ending for a time over the western counties.

While the filling upper low will start to work its way across the
lower great lakes on Wednesday... Surface based ridging and a lack of
moisture in the mid levels will limit the extent of any showers
activity. The showers that we do develop should be most prevalent
over the far western counties where deeper moisture will be
available to interact with increasing lake instability. The lake
effect rain showers could become more widespread east of both lakes
Wednesday night when the most unstable conditions and sufficient
synoptic moisture will be in place over the lakes. It will also be
much chillier... As h85 temps around zero c will only support
Wednesday afternoon temps that will range from the lower 50s in the
west to the mid to upper 50s east of the genesee valley. While this
will indeed by much cooler than the preceding week... These
temperatures will actually be close to where we should be for late
october.

Ridging is forecast to become established over the western counties
on Thursday... But the operational ECMWF is still suggesting that the
longwave trough will close off again... This time in the vcnty of
eastern pennsylvania. This scenario could enable synoptic moisture
to back in across the eastern lake ontario for Thursday and Thursday
night before ridging finally takes hold of the entire region on
Friday.

Aviation 14z Saturday through Wednesday
High pressure centered just to our south will provide ideal flying
conditions today... As surface winds under 10 knots will accompany
generally cig free skies.

Tonight...VFR conditions will remain in place... Although some valley
fog cannot be ruled out across the SRN tier and finger lakes
regions.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...VFR.

Monday night and Tuesday... MVFR ifr with occasional rain.

Wednesday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers.

Marine
High pressure ridged across the lower great lakes will drift to the
mid-atlantic coastline by Sunday. Consequently, light to modest
winds and relatively minimal waves will continue through the
weekend. A frontal system is then expected to push though the area
early next week, with strengthening winds and cold advection in its
wake eventually bringing an increasing potential for marine
headlines by either Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Apffel tma
near term... Rsh
short term... Thomas
long term... Rsh
aviation... Rsh
marine... Apffel tma


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 1 mi38 min SSW 6 G 12 66°F 1025.4 hPa (+0.3)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 20 mi38 min S 9.9 G 12 65°F 1024.7 hPa (+0.3)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 24 mi50 min 64°F 1025.8 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 33 mi50 min S 4.1 G 6 63°F 1025.1 hPa45°F
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 44 mi98 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 63°F 60°F1024.8 hPa (+0.7)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 48 mi50 min 65°F 1025.4 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY20 mi45 minSSW 610.00 miFair66°F46°F49%1025.5 hPa

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SW7SW9SW11SW12SW8SW9S6SW5S5CalmCalmS3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS7S6
1 day agoSW16
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SW13W15W11W7W8SW6SW5SW7SW3CalmCalmW3W4SW4W5W3CalmSW5SW6
2 days agoSW13SW16
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SW9S6S8S7S9S8S10S8S8S6SW11SW10SW9SW9SW14SW14SW17
G26
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.