Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Olcott, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:36AMSunset 9:00PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 1:21 AM EDT (05:21 UTC) Moonrise 9:52AMMoonset 11:22PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 623 Pm Edt Tue Jun 27 2017
Tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers early. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..South winds around 10 knots becoming southwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening... Then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day...then a chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ042 Expires:201706280315;;922291 FZUS51 KBUF 272223 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 623 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-280315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Olcott, NY
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location: 43.33, -78.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 280226
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1026 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017

Synopsis
There may be a few lingering showers overnight, with otherwise
mainly dry and unseasonably cool temperatures. The upper level
disturbances responsible for the cool and unsettled weather will
move east Wednesday with high pressure bringing mainly dry
weather. Another storm system will track into the great lakes on
Thursday with a warm front bringing more showers and
thunderstorms along with a return to uncomfortable humidity
levels.

Near term through Wednesday
An upper level trough axis will move into new england
overnight. Regional radar shows widely scattered showers across
western new york which should continue to taper off overnight.

The combination of cool air aloft and warm lake temperatures
will result in some modest lake enhancement, mainly east of lake
ontario along a land breeze convergence boundary. Temperatures
tonight will fall into the upper 40s to low 50s.

On Wednesday, surface high pressure over the ohio valley will nose
into the region, building in a warmer and drier airmass. A few
diurnal, scattered showers will be limited closer to the upper-level
low over the north country. Otherwise, diurnal cumulus clouds will
form over western ny. 850 mb temperatures will start to recover into
the low teens, bringing daytime highs back into the low 70s.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday night
Wednesday night high pressure slides off the carolina coast with a
southerly flow developing across our region. Rain from next
approaching system will reach parts of western and northern new york
late Wednesday night. Rain continues to overspread the region on
Thursday as a warm front lifts northward across the region. Enough
instability will develop such that embedded thunderstorms Thursday
will continue into Thursday night.

The weakening surface low will leave a weak frontal boundary across
the region on Friday with a few more showers and thunderstorms on
tap.

Temperature-wise, finally back to normal readings for the end of
june beginning of july. Highs Friday reaching the upper 70s to near
80 and on Friday into the low 80s. Low Wednesday night in the mid
50s to around 60. As the air becomes more humid, Thursday night and
Friday night temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 60s.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Saturday will start of warm and humid with a warm frontal boundary
moving north or already north wny. This will leave the region in
the warm sector of a low moving NE across huron during the day. A
cold front associated with this low will move in sometime on
Saturday and spark additional thunderstorms. Frontal timing will
determine the threat for stronger storms, with a better chance
inland toward cny if current model trends hold.

Saturday night and Sunday... This time period should mark the end of
an active pattern with high pressure slowly moving in with drying in
at least the mid levels. The main threat for additional showers
will be on Sunday afternoon along lake breeze convergent regions.

Sunday night and Monday... This period should be dry with weak high
pressure moving toward the region from the upper midwest. Dry
weather area-wide isn't a guarantee this far out, but if the timing
of the current pattern holds, the natural progression should be
subsidence behind the Sunday system, with the exception of isolated
summer convection on lake breeze convergent regions by Monday
afternoon.

Monday night and Tuesday... High pressure generally over head should
negate any threat for convection. The 12z GFS is more optimistic
precipitation from the WV va appalachians into pa while the ec is
dry with a slightly stronger ridge over ontario extending S into ny.

Will lean on the dry side for now as the GFS has had some model
variability further upstream over the midwest when compared to a
more consistent pattern noted in successive ec runs.

Daily temperatures won't stray too far off normals for this time of
year, with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 and lows mostly in the
60s, with a slight cooling trend into early next week. Humidity
levels will vary, with some nights possibly warranting a c while in
the warm sector, but at this time don't see any extreme sultry days
or nights for weekend early next week. The warmest and most humid
period will be early during Saturday while in the warm sector.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
ExpectVFR conditions tonight and Wednesday. Widely scattered
showers late this evening will continue to taper off, with
only a small chance of even briefly impacting any given taf
location. High pressure will build into the region on
Wednesday, with scattered to broken diurnal CU likely to stay
above 3k ft. A few showers cannot be ruled out across the north
country, but these are likely to miss the art terminal.

Outlook...

Wednesday night... MainlyVFR.

Thursday through Sunday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

Marine
Winds have diminished late this evening, but waves are still to
5 ft on lake erie and 4 ft on lake ontario. Small craft
headlines are in place for lake erie until midnight.

Lighter winds will promote sub-advisory wave action on the lakes
from tonight and Wednesday. Winds and waves will again increase
Thursday ahead of the next frontal system pushing toward the eastern
great lakes.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lez040-041.

Synopsis... Apffel church
near term... Apffel church
short term... Levan
long term... Zaff
aviation... Apffel
marine... Apffel church


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 1 mi82 min SSW 6 G 8 60°F 1017.3 hPa (+1.0)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 20 mi82 min SSW 6 G 8 61°F 1016.6 hPa (+1.0)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 24 mi52 min 61°F 1017.7 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 33 mi52 min W 16 G 19 65°F 1016.8 hPa56°F
45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax 34 mi82 min WSW 5.8 G 5.8 58°F 56°F1016.2 hPa (+1.2)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 44 mi82 min SW 9.7 G 12 61°F 62°F1 ft1016.6 hPa (+0.9)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 48 mi52 min 65°F 1017.1 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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W8
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY20 mi29 minWSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F50°F72%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6W10SE5SW6W5S4W5W9SW14S9SW7
G15
SW6W19
G28
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G21
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W11SW7W8W8W3W6W6SW6SW7
1 day agoW7W4W6W5SW7SW6SW7W8W9SW10SW9SW17
G21
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G25
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W17W6W11W6W3W5CalmSE3Calm
2 days agoSW9SW7SW6W8SW7W7SW9SW11SW13SW14
G25
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W10SW19
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NW21NW11W11W14
G21
W9W12W9W9W7W9W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.