Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Olcott, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:41PM Thursday May 23, 2019 11:12 AM EDT (15:12 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 8:44AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 446 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots this afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning. Showers and Thunderstorms likely early this afternoon, then a chance of showers late. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds early this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Occasional showers with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers Monday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ042 Expires:201905231530;;319367 FZUS51 KBUF 230846 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 446 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-231530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Olcott, NY
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location: 43.33, -78.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 231349
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
949 am edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
Showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will cross the region
today... Ahead of a cold front that will sweep across the area
later this afternoon and early this evening. In the wake of the
front... Cooler... Less humid... And generally dry conditions will
follow for Friday. The next weather system will bring more
showers to our area Friday night, followed by additional showers
and thunderstorms Saturday.

Near term through tonight
As of 945 am... Have updated all applicable products again to
account for severe thunderstorm watch 217... Which is now in
effect until 2 pm for all of western new york.

As of 915 am... A solid line of upstream convection associated
with a prefrontal trough continues to hold together rather well
while crossing central lake erie and southern ontario... And
continues to push eastward a bit faster than indicated by most
guidance. Based on all of this... Have sped up the timing of this
line and upped pops so that most areas will now see a
likelihood of showers storms as this line pushes eastward
across the area. This line should enter chautauqua county by 10
am and the niagara frontier by 11 am... Before pushing further
eastward into the genesee valley and finger lakes during the
midday early afternoon hours. Also... Have upped the ante on the
enhanced wording for thunderstorms based on the current strength
of this line... Upstream obs and warnings and expected further
development as it pushes further eastward into a destabilizing
airmass... With the possibility of damaging winds and large hail
now mentioned pretty much areawide. That is the extent of any
changes for now...

convection within a pre frontal trough will push across our region
through this afternoon. Instability will be greatest just ahead of
the prefrontal trough with MUCAPE values 500 to 1000 j kg. Further
daytime destabilization, lake breeze boundaries, and rapidly falling
heights aloft ahead of a potent shortwave will help to force storms
to blossom today. Of greater concern driving the severe threat will
be a 50 to 55 knot LLJ dipping to around 2-3k feet. This llj,
creating 0-6 km bulk shear values nearing 60 knots will allow for
tilting updrafts, and potential for storms to become strong to
severe.

Convection will reach our region by mid-morning, with the threat for
thunderstorms... And then severe storms becoming likely by late
morning and through the afternoon hours. Greatest timing for severe
storms will be between 10 am and 5 pm. Straight line winds will be
the greatest threat today... With increasing CAPE aloft and wbz
values 7-10k feet suggesting also potential for hail. An isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out within the strong shear environment.

While the entire region is within a slight risk for severe storms
today, the southern tier to the finger lakes will be highlighted for
severe storms.

Before the cold front crosses the region, strong southwesterly winds
are expected across lake erie shoreline and across the niagara
frontier, and towards monroe county. Gusts to 45 mph are likely
outside the cooler lake dome of air, with gusts diminishing this
evening with the lowering mixing heights. The deepening surface low
passing to the north of lake ontario will maintain a decent pressure
gradient through the night, with winds now veering to a west to
northwest direction. Gusts 20 to 30 mph will be possible tonight.

The cold front will cross the region late this afternoon and
evening, ending the convection threat and also bringing lowering
humidity values tonight. Behind the upper level shortwave, a few up
slope rain showers may linger east of lake ontario through the
night, otherwise the region will be mainly dry. Lows tonight will
drop back into the lower 50s.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
Shortwave trough and sfc low responsible for stormy day today starts
off on Friday over northern new england. Lingering cold air aloft
and 925-850mb moisture closer to the departing trough aloft should
support isold showers sprinkles over north county through most of
the day. Otherwise, will be a good deal of stratocu into late
morning early afternoon before brief clearing takes place. High
temps on Friday will tumble back below normal, with 60s in most
locations. Steady w-nw winds and later departure of clouds will keep
lake ontario shoreline and north country slightly cooler with
readings in the upper 50s.

Upper level ridging briefly passes overhead into Friday evening but
mid to high clouds will quickly be on the increase in right entrance
region of departing upper jet and on nose of approaching jet over
the upper great lakes. Models have trended slower with arrival of
showers overnight on Friday night as theta-e advection moisture
transport ramps up ahead of main low-level low over the upper great
lakes and northern ontario. Sfc warm front slides across on Saturday
with weaker cold front following later Saturday night. Convergence
along the front, along with any weak convectively induced shortwaves
rolling through and persistent divergence aloft from right entrance
region of upper jet should support multiple clusters of showers and
thunderstorms. Think most widespread activity will occur north of
the warm front, closer to lake ontario and into the north country,
as that is where moisture transport is maximized and where edge of
elevated CAPE of 500-1000 j kg is located. Elsewhere across western
ny and the genesee valley toward the finger lakes may end up seeing
more scattered showers and tsra due to mlcapes up to 750j kg and
strong effective shear over 50 kts. Would like to see more in way of
instability to counter such strong shear for more widespread severe,
but certainly could see at least an isold severe threat on Saturday.

After a cool day on Friday, temps on Saturday will push well into
the 70s to near 80f depending on extent of any breaks in the cloud
cover. Will feel a touch more humid on Saturday as well with td
climbing back into the 60s.

Cold front sliding through on Saturday night will allow showers and
storms to gradually diminish, though could see some rain hanging on
along the southern tier and possibly the north country as the cold
front more or less becomes parallel to the upper level flow. Low
temperatures will only fall off into the upper 50s to lower 60s, so
still a rather muggy night.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
A cold front settling just to the south and east of the area Sunday
will keep the risk for a few showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
in across the southern tier, finger lakes and north country. A
slightly cooler day than Saturday is expected, but still should have
plenty of temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.

High pressure building in from southeast ontario behind the front
Sunday night and then settling across region by memorial day. This
should bring a break between rain chances.

Tuesday and Wednesday, ridging building over the southeast conus
will increase mid-level heights across the region allowing the old
frontal boundary to return northward as a warm front. Model timing
differences on this exist, but still looking at unsettled weather
through mid week. Depending on the exact northward movement of the
front, more humid and warmer air will be sent northward into the
region with the potential for much more summer-like temperatures.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
A solid line of convection attendant to an advancing prefrontal
trough will cross the region from west to east between roughly 14z
and 20z today... And will pose a risk of strong wind gusts of 50+
knots and large hail as it passes.

Behind the storms a cold front will sweep across the region. Wind
gusts this afternoon may near 35 or greater knots for kbuf kiag and
kroc. Cold air advection behind the front will continue breezy
westerly winds tonight. Lingering moisture will also lead to the
formation of a deck of MVFR range stratus across much of the taf
region by the end of Friday night.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR. A chance of showers Friday night.

Saturday...VFR MVFR with showers likely and a chance
of thunderstorms. Some storms could again produce gusty winds.

Sunday... MainlyVFR.

Monday...VFR.

Marine
A prefrontal trough and attendant line of showers and thunderstorms
will cross the region from west to east between late this morning
and this afternoon. The storms will be capable of locally strong
wind gusts and higher waves as the pass through.

In the wake of the prefrontal trough... Southwest winds will increase
through the afternoon hours as an area of low pressure deepens and
passes to the north of lake ontario. Southwest winds will increase
to 15 to 20 knots on lake erie and the western half of lake ontario.

A cold front will then cross the lower great lakes this evening,
with now a more westerly flow on the lakes. This will increase
waves... Especially on lake ontario where 4 feet or greater waves
will be possible. A SCA will be issued for the southeastern
shoreline of lake ontario tonight through early Friday morning.

Tides coastal flooding
A cold front will cross lake ontario early this evening, with
surface low pressure tracking eastward across southern canada.

Behind this front westerly winds will increase tonight, that
will produce higher waves on lake ontario. The increase in
westerly winds will bring higher waves on lake ontario,
combining with very high lake levels to bring an increased risk
of lakeshore flooding on the east half of lake ontario, between
wayne and oswego counties. Winds will diminish Friday with the
departure of the surface low over eastern canada.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood watch from late tonight through Friday morning
for nyz004>006.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lez020-
040-041.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 11
am edt Friday for loz043.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 2 am edt
Friday for loz042.

Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 11 am edt
Friday for loz044.

Synopsis... Jjr thomas
near term... Jjr thomas
short term... Jla
long term... Tma
aviation... Jjr thomas
marine... Jjr thomas
tides coastal flooding... Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 1 mi72 min E 1.9 G 4.1 50°F 1014.9 hPa (-1.4)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 24 mi60 min 64°F 1013.8 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 33 mi54 min S 7 G 8.9
45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax 34 mi72 min ENE 5.8 G 7.8 44°F 42°F1 ft1013.5 hPa (-1.4)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 44 mi72 min E 1.9 G 3.9 46°F 44°F1 ft1013.6 hPa (-1.0)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 48 mi60 min 71°F 1013.7 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY20 mi19 minVar 53.00 miRain Fog/Mist63°F60°F90%1013.7 hPa

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE12
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SE8E11E12E9SE9E11SE10CalmSW7S4S3S3S4S5SW4S6S8S6SW7SW5SW7SW95
1 day agoNW13NW10
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NW9NW8W8NW7N6N7N4SW7S3S3CalmS3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3E8E7E9
2 days agoW14
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NW15NW12NW10W8W8W6SW4SW5W7W5NW10NW10NW12NW10
G14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.