Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lexington, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:54PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 7:38 PM EDT (23:38 UTC) Moonrise 11:37PMMoonset 8:03AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ464 Expires:201905230815;;289175 Fzus63 Kdtx 221930 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 330 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Low pressure, averaging 29.70 inches, will track northeast across the northern great lakes the remainder of today and into Thursday initially dragging a warm front northward across the region into tonight before a cold front sweeps through Thursday morning. High pressure, building to 30.20 inches, will then move east over the great lakes Friday. Lhz462>464-230815- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 330 pm edt Wed may 22 2019
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the southwest early in the afternoon...then increasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning...then becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots until late afternoon becoming light and variable. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Friday night..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning...then becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the afternoon.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Light and variable winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots until early evening...then veering to the northeast in the late evening and early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LHZ464


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lexington, MI
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location: 43.35, -82.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 221916
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
316 pm edt Wed may 22 2019

Discussion
Mid level drying has been expanding across SE mi in the wake of the
earlier showers. Some afternoon destabilization may occur along the
back edge of the mid level moist axis. Recent hi res guidance
suggests that any convective initiation off this will be comfortably
south and east of the forecast area. Otherwise, the mid level dry
air advection this evening will continue to support full to partial
clearing. Strengthening low level southwest flow during the night
will help drive the surface warm front now lifting toward NW indiana
across SRN mi. Ongoing low level warm air advection and clearing
skies will upport late day MAX temperatures in the 60s, pushing low
70s across the south. Low level warm air advection within the
southwest gradient tonight will limit the degree of boundary layer
de coupling, leading to a relatively mild night with mins in the
upper 50s to low 60s.

The upper low and associated sfc low now rotating into minnesota
will traverse lake superior late tonight thurs morning, driving a
cold front into lower mi late thurs morning. A strengthening low
level southerly jet (near 60 knots) will transport a plume of mid
level moisture and elevated instability into NRN illinois and lake
mi WRN lower mi overnight. This is expected to result in convective
initiation in these regions. There is actually fairly good agreement
that this convection will support development of a meso scale
convective vorticity max(s) set to traverse SE mi early thurs
morning. This will also allow the low level jet to veer toward se
mi, transporting the mid level theta E plume and instability axis
into SE mi. This will warrant a good chance for
showers thunderstorms in the 09z to 14z time frame thurs. Although
any storms early thurs morning are not expected to be rooted in the
boundary layer, steep mid level lapse rates will support fairly good
cape density aloft. The rap actually brings 0-3km mu CAPE up to 1500
j kg in by 12z thurs. So can not rule out the possibility of a few
stronger storms capable of gusty winds and small hail.

The passage of the sfc cold front by early thurs afternoon will
drive the better instability to the east, with slightly colder and
drier air advecting in from the west during the afternoon. A
deepening daytime mixed layer will offset the cold air advection to
a degree, supporting high temps well into the 70s; possibly a few
low 80s. 30+ knot winds within the mixed layer will support a rather
windy afternoon on Thursday, gusts likely topping 30 mph at times. A
building mid level ridge across the great lakes will drive sfc high
pressure into SE mi thurs night into Friday, supporting cooler and
dry conditions.

A cold front moving through the great lakes on Saturday will lead to
a likely chance for showers and storms through much of the day.

Ahead of frontal passage which currently looks to occur during the
evening, gusty southwest winds will develop given a decent gradient
in place between low pressure over ontario and high pressure over
the SE conus. A deep mixed layer and 850mb temps around 15c will
elevate highs to the upper 70s and lower 80s. There will be a chance
of strong storms in the afternoon and evening with just enough shear
and instability in place.

The front will stall over the ohio valley Sunday into Monday as high
pressure builds into the great lakes. There will be a chance of
showers and storms over the southern counties as a series of weak
shortwaves moves over the frontal surface, otherwise mostly dry
conditions are expected. The better chance for rain across all of se
michigan comes late Monday into Tuesday as a low pressure system
lifts through just northwest of us and pushes the front back
northward as a warm front. Another chance for rain on Wednesday as
another low lifts through. The early to mid week will see highs in
the 70s and lows in the 50s.

Marine
Southeasterly to southerly flow to hold through the afternoon and
evening as a warm front continues to push across the great lakes.

Wind direction to veer overnight through Thursday afternoon, turning
southerly and eventually southwesterly as strong low-level winds and
diurnal mixing acts to bring breezy conditions to the marine areas.

As a result, a series of small craft advisories will be in effect
for tonight and tomorrow. Small craft advisories for outer saginaw
bay and the northern thumb start tonight, tied to the southeasterly
flow which will act to increase wave heights towards the three foot
mark. The advisory is then expanded for all of the saginaw bay and
all of the lake huron shoreline as the increased mixing depths allow
wind gusts up to 25-30 knots to persist late Thursday morning into
the evening, the strongest of which will be seen over the saginaw
bay. In addition to the small craft advisories, showers and
thunderstorms tied to the cold front are expected overnight into
daybreak, which has the potential to produce gusty winds. High
pressure will then expand across the great lakes late Thursday into
Friday which will relax wind speeds and will allow the advisories to
drop-off.

Prev discussion
Issued at 144 pm edt Wed may 22 2019
aviation...

dry southwesterly flow in the low-levels combined with increasing
mixing depths and subsidence aloft has and will continue to scour
out cloud cover across SE mi this afternoon and evening, leading to
vfr conditions for all terminals. As cloud coverage diminishes,
winds will veer to the southwest and hold through evening as a warm
front pushes through the state. Otherwise, an overnight cold front
will lead to shower and thunderstorm chances, centered between 10 -
13z across all terminals. Post-frontal MVFR CIGS are forecasted
behind the leading edge of precipitation leading into Thursday early
afternoon. High pressure will then aid in bringing mostly clear skies
late Thursday afternoon but will also increase mixing depths,
bringing down strong westerly wind gusts up to 25-30 knots as early
as Thursday morning, with continued gusts up to 30 knots through the
afternoon.

For dtw... CIGS will continue to lift and break up through the late
afternoon as southeast winds turn southerly. There is a very small
chance to see a pop-up shower or thunderstorms tied to the warm-
front this afternoon, however most if not all of the activity will
hold south of the michigan border.VFR conditions to last through
the day before a cold front brings thunderstorm chances and high-end
MVFR CIGS after the passage of the frontal boundary around daybreak.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low confidence in thunderstorms impacting terminal overnight.

* medium confidence in cigs AOB 5000 overnight
* low potential to reach crosswind thresholds Thursday afternoon.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for miz070-076.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt Thursday for lhz421-441.

Small craft advisory from 8 am to 10 pm edt Thursday for lhz422-442-
443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Sc tf
marine... ... .Am
aviation... ..Am
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 13 mi39 min ESE 9.7 G 12 47°F 39°F2 ft1016.1 hPa (-1.5)
PSCM4 27 mi39 min S 8 G 8.9 52°F 1033.9 hPa (-1.3)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 31 mi39 min SSW 11 G 13 64°F 1015.5 hPa (-1.0)51°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 33 mi39 min 63°F 1015.6 hPa (-1.1)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 47 mi39 min SSE 15 G 17 53°F 52°F1015.8 hPa (-0.9)47°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI39 mi41 minSSE 910.00 miFair66°F51°F60%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
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2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.