Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lexington, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 5:05PM Saturday November 17, 2018 12:52 PM EST (17:52 UTC) Moonrise 2:39PMMoonset 1:05AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ464 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 1000 Am Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Rest of today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. A chance of snow early in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet early in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the evening.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the evening becoming west 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of snow showers early in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
LHZ464 Expires:201811172100;;444031 FZUS63 KDTX 171500 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1000 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A weak frontal boundary will cross the region early today. High pressure will then build to 30.40 inches across the central Great Lakes as the day progresses and continuing into tonight. Pressure will then decrease slightly and average 30.10 inches Sunday and continuing through the early week. LHZ462>464-172100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lexington, MI
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location: 43.35, -82.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 171549
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1049 am est Sat nov 17 2018

Aviation
Vfr will slowly deteriorate to MVFR with light snow as deeper
moisture works in from the west. Warm temperatures and very light
rates will preclude anything in the way of accumulation, but some
embedded heavier showers could cause temporary ifr vsby through
early afternoon, mainly INVOF kptk. Otherwise, modest improvement to
lowVFR this evening as frontal zone sags south and wind veers to
light variable northeasterly overnight. Light snow will return to
the detroit area early Sunday as the frontal zone briefly bubbles
back north, bringing a return to MVFR ceilings. Intensity is
forecast to be on par with today.

For dtw... Weak gradient increases confidence in maintaining SW flow
ops into early Sunday even as gradually veers through the northeast
quadrant.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for cigs AOB 5kft
* high for ptype of sn. Low for ptype of snra.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1002 am est Sat nov 17 2018
update...

the southern expanse of a corridor of stronger mid level height
falls commencing across central ontario easing a cold frontal
boundary across lower michigan this morning. Meanwhile weak
shortwave energy shearing through this suppressed height field
anchoring a broad area of light snow upstream, the forcing largely
driven by modest ascent beneath favorable right entrance region
upper jet dynamics and isentropic lift over the southward sagging
boundary. This forcing will tend to diminish with time as it
translates into southeast michigan this afternoon, with upper jet
support shifting into the ohio valley. Recent upstream trends still
suggest a higher coverage of light snow flurries is likely for a
period this afternoon - particularly south of i-69. However, the
lack of more meaningful upward vertical motion will certainly
restrict snowfall intensity, making accumulation difficult outside
of a couple hundreths here and there on grassy surfaces as surface
temperatures hover just above freezing. With temperatures now in the
upper 30s southeast of the glacial ridge, precipitation more likely
to fall as a light mix of ra sn from ann arbor to detroit southward.

A standard high probability of precipitation but of limited
consequence with minimal QPF snow accumulation today.

Prev discussion...

issued at 348 am est Sat nov 17 2018
discussion...

a cold front sliding through southern lower michigan during early
morning brings a light northwest wind shift that could carry some
lake effect snow showers into the saginaw valley and thumb region
during the day but with minimal coverage. There is a better chance
of snow farther south as the front stalls south of the ohio border
by afternoon. It provides a focus for a pattern of light snow or
rain snow mix to materialize with potential for a light and slushy
accumulation on unpaved surfaces mainly south of the i-69 corridor.

In addition to low qpf, a limiting factor for accumulation is
afternoon timing that allows surface temperature to reach the mid
and upper 30s as the snow arrives. This makes a rain snow mix
possible in the detroit area as the freezing level warms to near
1000 ft and results in single digit snow ratio elsewhere through the
event. Expect total accumulation less than 1 inch before snow
ends by evening.

The upper wave jet MAX moving in from the central plains and midwest
provides the primary forcing for snow within the frontal zone over
lower michigan. It is off to a good start as early morning
observations prior to sunrise indicate light snow occuring over much
of the midwest states. Greater intensity over iowa is also a
rain snow mix closer to the surface trough low pressure reflection
and where backed flow below 700 mb is producing moderate isentropic
ascent. From there, model agreement is convincing with the depiction
of a weakening trend through the morning. It is then able to
generate adequate areal coverage but only light amounts of
precipitation over lower michigan while shearing eastward through the
afternoon. Forcing weakens as the entrance region of the upper jet
remains well defined but isentropic lift dissipates as flow veers
above 850 mb. It appears this is due to separate height fall centers
developing near hudson bay and the central rockies while the larger
scale upper jet maintains fast flow over the new england states. The
weakening vertical motion field over the ohio valley is further
reflected by the quickly filling inverted surface trough that doesn't
reach the ohio valley until tonight as the central rockies wave
moves into the plains. This reactivates the elevated portion of the
front late tonight and brings a new chance of light snow near the
ohio border by sunrise Sunday. Farther north, high clouds are thick
enough to prevent full radiational cooling potential otherwise set up
by weak surface high pressure and light wind. Guidance that holds
low temps in the 20s is preferred for tonight.

The frontal zone remains active near the ohio border through Sunday
morning but plan to hold pops for snow in the chance range at this
point. This is where upward adjustments are possible in later
updates depending on trends with the eastward pace of the front.

Hesitant to bring any accumulation north of the border just yet as
the next low pressure system entering the northern great lakes
likely drives the ohio valley front eastward by Sunday afternoon.

Moisture with the new northern great lakes system remains primarily
north of SE michigan through Monday followed by a chance of light
snow Monday night as the associated cold front moves through the
region. This front reinforces cold air and below normal temperatures
through mid week while global model solutions maintain hope for a
warming trend by thanksgiving through next weekend.

Marine...

a weak upper-level disturbance and frontal boundary will move east
across the central great lakes today bringing widely scattered snow
showers. North northwest flow will continue to weaken as the day
progresses as high pressure builds into the region from the west
late today and into tonight. Winds will become more southwesterly
Sunday as high pressure settles over the central plains. A
tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure and an area
of low pressure tracking across southern hudson bay will lead to
gusty winds over northern and central lake huron Sunday, with gusts
of 20-30 knots common. Moderate southwesterly flow will continue to
linger through the early week period with broad high pressure in
place.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Jvc
update... ... .Mr
discussion... Bt
marine... ... .Irl
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSCM4 27 mi52 min W 8.9 G 14 34°F 1024.4 hPa (+0.7)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 31 mi34 min NW 8.9 G 11 34°F 1024.1 hPa24°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 33 mi34 min 37°F 1024 hPa
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 47 mi34 min NNW 8 G 13 33°F 38°F1024 hPa24°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI39 mi57 minW 710.00 miOvercast36°F23°F60%1024.7 hPa

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Last 24hrSW6SW4SW4W3SW3SW3CalmCalmSW3SW3SW3SW3SW3W4W4W4W3NW5CalmCalmCalmW3NW7NW6
1 day agoE4E3E4E3------------------------------SW4SW4SW4SW8SW5
2 days agoCalmNW3N4CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E8E6E7E6E6E6E7E7E5E4E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.