Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lexington, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 9:14PM Friday June 23, 2017 4:48 PM EDT (20:48 UTC) Moonrise 4:34AMMoonset 7:42PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ464 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 352 Pm Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Tonight..Light and variable winds becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight...then veering to the northwest early in the morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots until early evening...then becoming south 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers until early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and early morning.
LHZ464 Expires:201706240815;;705970 FZUS63 KDTX 231952 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 352 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Weak low pressure...averaging 29.60 inches...tracking across the central Great Lakes will pull a cold front through the area, ushering in quieter weather tonight. Broad low pressure will then linger over the Great Lakes through the weekend, providing unseasonably cool and slightly unsettled weather. LHZ462>464-240815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lexington, MI
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location: 43.35, -82.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 231947
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
347 pm edt Fri jun 23 2017

Discussion
Redevelopment of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue
through late afternoon before cooler and less humid air arrives
behind the cold front and brings an end to activity by early
evening. Measures of instability will be the main factor to monitor
for convective intensity with this round. Hourly mesoanalysis
indicates MLCAPE around 500 j kg, which could build toward 1000 j kg
by late afternoon, while model soundings show a mostly narrow cape
profile. There is still some wind in the mid levels, 30-40 kts in
the 700-500 mb layer, which could help with a precip loaded wind
gust around 40 mph. This, along with locally heavy rainfall, will be
the main concerns as pw lingers around 1.7 inches. Mid afternoon
radar trend have shown some tendency for training patterns,
especially south of metro detroit. Otherwise convective clusters
will have orientation along the moisture gradient and normal to the
westerly mean flow. This and the postfrontal negative theta-e
advection at and below 850 mb will guide activity out of SE michigan
around 00z.

A clearing trend with cooler and less humid air will follow the exit
of early evening showers storms through the overnight and Saturday
morning. A mostly sunny start to the day will help temperatures warm
from lows in the 50s which will lead to a generous cumulus response
during the afternoon. This will occur under cool temperatures aloft
carried in by the upper level trough now over the midwest which will
bring 500 mb temperatures from around -9 c today to around -18 c
Saturday afternoon and evening. Daytime heating that will lift high
temps into the lower 70s will produce at least scattered convection
over lower michigan. Upstream observations over the midwest today
support model output suggesting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms as surface dewpoint lingers in the 50s and produces
surface based CAPE around 500 j kg. A cycle with strong diurnal
dependence will then continue with a diminishing trend Saturday
night and redevelopment Sunday as the next surge of cold advection
aloft moves into the southern great lakes. Associated low level
thickness cooling will also limit high temperatures to the upper 60s
most areas and lower 70s around metro detroit.

By the start of next week, the region will continue to reside in
longwave troughing. Currently, models have a shortwave moving
across the great lakes region which will bring another round of
possible rain and thunderstorms on Monday. The trough is then
quickly replaced by upper level riding as surface high pressure
begins to build in from the west. This will bring a break from
precipitation Tuesday and Wednesday before chances for precipitation
increase again to round out the week. The coolest temperatures in
the extended will come in on Monday as highs struggle to reach 70
degrees. This will likely only last for a day before temperatures
warm back into the 70s and then push back around 80 by the end of
the week.

Marine
Winds will be out of the west-northwest tonight as a cold front
exits the central great lakes this afternoon. West to northwest flow
will is expected to persist through the weekend as broad low
pressure remains in place over the northern great lakes.

Speeds are expected to remain modest, but gusts may just top 20
knots over western lake erie both Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

Prev discussion
Issued at 105 pm edt Fri jun 23 2017
aviation...

drier air is slowly working into southeast michigan, as winds shift
to the west northwest. Still, lingering standing water and
saturated ground will require much of the afternoon to mix
out low clouds, with clear mostly clear skies then around toward
sunset, persisting overnight. Winds will be light overnight, and
there is some concern fog could develop, especially mbs, but decided
against it with the short night and continued modest dry advection.

Cold air aloft tomorrow should promote a rapid CU up, with scattered
afternoon showers isolated thunderstorms possible.

For dtw... Borderline MVFR lowVFR CIGS to start, slowly lifting and
mixing out as the afternoon wears on, with mostly clear skies this
evening and tonight. West northwest winds generally around 10 knots
this afternoon, becoming light this evening and overnight.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium confidence in ceilings AOB 5kft this afternoon, then
again tomorrow afternoon.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Bt sp
marine... ... .Sf
aviation... ..Sf
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at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 13 mi48 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 64°F 62°F1001.7 hPa (+1.5)
PSCM4 27 mi48 min WNW 5.1 G 9.9 70°F 1002.4 hPa (+1.0)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 31 mi48 min NW 2.9 G 8.9 69°F 1001.8 hPa (+1.8)68°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 33 mi48 min 76°F 1001.6 hPa (+0.9)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 47 mi48 min N 6 G 7 71°F 1001.5 hPa (+0.9)65°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI39 mi72 minSSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F66°F74%1002 hPa

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10
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S5SW3SW4SW4S4S8CalmNE4E4CalmCalmSE5E8SE8S7SW6S4W4
1 day agoNW3NE7NE4E3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S3S3S5S7S4S7S10
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2 days agoNW11
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CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmW5NW6N3NW3W5CalmW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.