Sunday, December17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lexington, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 4:58PM Sunday December 17, 2017 8:38 AM EST (13:38 UTC) Moonrise 7:04AMMoonset 4:51PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ464 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 354 Am Est Sun Dec 17 2017
Today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the southwest after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and early morning. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots until early morning. A chance of snow showers. A chance of showers until early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LHZ464 Expires:201712172115;;016739 FZUS63 KDTX 170854 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 354 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A weak front just south of Lake Erie will move back northward today and tonight as weak low pressure averaging 29.90 inches moves through the central Great Lakes. Meanwhile, high pressure, averaging 30.40 inches, over western Quebec will continue to the east coast today. On Monday, a larger system over central Canada will bring greater weather impacts to the Great Lakes during early next week. LHZ462>464-172115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lexington, MI
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location: 43.35, -82.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 171019
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
519 am est Sun dec 17 2017

Aviation
A weak front will lift north through the area today. Cool low level
easterly flow and saturated boundary layer will result in ifr
conditions through most of the forecast period. Some obs upstream
are coming in lifr which will need to be watched through the morning
hours. There is a chance of some light precip falling out of this
low saturated deck, but chances and confidence are too low to
include in the tafs. With temperatures quickly rising above 32,
would likely be drizzle or light rain. Hrrr guidance shows the area
ofVFR south of the front will flirt with the detroit area
terminals, but most of the guidance advertises staying socked in
which is where we'll lean with the 12z tafs. A second period of
light precip could come later tonight as a low lifts along the
front, but again models are not showing much coverage with this.

For dtw... Expanding area of ifr stratus is affecting the terminal
this morning. There is potential for drizzle and fog with the
frontal boundary in vicinity of the airfield but at this point will
highlight the CIGS with some lower vsbys until we start seeing obs
come in nearby. Better potential appears later today and tonight.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight through Sunday.

* very low for freezing drizzle precip type tonight through Sunday
morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 355 am est Sun dec 17 2017
discussion...

nearly stationary mid level frontal boundary lodged within slightly
confluent west-northwest flow currently draped across the oh mi
border early this morning. Low level easterly flow still tucked
beneath this benign frontal slope, sustained south of high pressure
anchored over central ontario. This pattern presents a challenge in
defining low level moisture trends below 925 mb for today, as the
easterly component likely draws the lake erie moisture plume into
the broad sub-inversion layer residing beneath the mid level
boundary. Evidence of this low level saturation process already
underway with an expanding ifr level stratus along the ohio border.

Caution is given yet to the degree of saturation noted within the
model solution space, with a notorious moist bias often presented
under fresh snowpack particularly the NAM . With that said, a
gradually veering low level wind with time as the pressure gradient
responds to an inbound shearing low-mid level impulse will favor
some form of northward stratus through the day. No real signal
within the model output or ensemble probabilistic guidance to
suggest the potential for fzdz dz is high enough to warrant a
mention. Not out of the question that a smaller scale response does
emerge should weak convergence develop along the advancing surface
warm front, but will allow near term trends dictate an inclusion.

Weak warm advection today remains off the surface, leaving the
existing near surface air mass virtually unchanged with minimal
potential for mixing given the easterly flow. General moderation
underway as weak shortwave ridging pivots through, so perhaps a
slight upward adjustment relative to yesterday. Highs range from
around 30 degrees north to upper 30s near the ohio border.

Fraying mid level dynamics tied to the aforementioned wave will
largely pass by to the south late today into early tonight. This
process will draw a weak surface reflection across southern lake
michigan and the west-central lower mi tonight. Renewed low level
moisture advection isentropic ascent as an attendant surface-925 mb
thermal ridge arcs into the region will increase the potential for
some very light precipitation development, particularly during the
latter half of the night through early Monday. A warming thermal
profile coincident with this process gives little opportunity to
introduce ice into the column, favoring an all liquid ptype. Best
shot for measurable liquid focused south of i-69, where model
consensus suggests that the window for sub-freezing surface
temperatures will be closing just as conditions become more
favorable for precip production during early morning period. This
will limit the potential of witnessing light freezing rain or
drizzle overnight.

Moist and milder conditions Monday under moderate low level
southwest flow. Highs will make a run toward 40 degrees across
southern sections. Some perpetuation of very light rain or drizzle
possible through the day, sustained by some combination of weak warm
air advection and brief cva tied to the passage of low amplitude
wave.

Cold front remains projected to lift across the region early
Tuesday, attendant to a northern stream wave shearing across
southern canada. Limited moisture quality and lack of larger scale
dynamics or frontal convergence still suggest a dry frontal passage.

Resident time of the existing milder environment likely great enough
to allow readings to lift into the lower middle 40s, before ensuing
quick shot of cold air advection takes over late in the day. This
will send the temperature profile back to below average values for
Wednesday, under passing high pressure.

A more complex pattern evolution for the late week period will bring
the greatest potential for meaningful precipitation over the next
week, followed by what looks to be an extended arctic plunge next
weekend lasting through the christmas holiday. Strong height falls
across the western CONUS by midweek will set the stage for likely
surface cyclogenesis somewhere over the plains, with an eventual
northeastward ejection of this system along the main height fall
gradient. Potential for a quick shot of warm air advection driven
snowfall Thursday depending on where the main moisture axis aligns
with eastward extent, but otherwise recent model trends would
suggest southeast michigan largely lands within the dry downstream
'warm' sector for a time before the main system dynamics arrive
Friday. Forecast uncertainty derived from the usual sensitivity to
changes in the governing track, strength and interaction of the pv
filaments, meaning additional model adjustments remain likely within
this period until the key features attain better sampling later this
week. Some timing differences aside, there is a clear signal for an
extended stretch of below normal temperatures to emerge in the wake
of this system, as high amplitude troughing reestablishes control.

Marine...

quiet conditions across the eastern great lakes today as high
pressure tracks east through ontario into quebec this morning. A
weak front just south of the michigan border will lift north as a
low pressure system moves through the central great lakes today. The
system may bring some light rain or snow to the lakes but winds will
remain below 20 knots. Quiet conditions continue through Monday
before a larger and stronger low pressure system approaches early
next week. The potential for westerly gales is beginning to show
with this system by Tuesday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Drk
discussion... Mr
marine... ... .Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSCM4 27 mi39 min ESE 8.9 G 11 27°F 1024.4 hPa (+0.7)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 31 mi51 min ESE 2.9 G 7 22°F 1023.6 hPa15°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 33 mi51 min 23°F 1023.4 hPa
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 47 mi51 min E 8 G 9.9 25°F 1024.4 hPa20°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI39 mi44 minENE 510.00 miOvercast23°F15°F74%1024 hPa

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3N3CalmN3N3N3N3NE6E5NE5E3E5NE4E6NE6NE4E3NE5NE7NE4E5E3E4NE5
1 day agoS7S9SW10
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SW8SW7SW5SW5SW5W5W4W3W4SW3W3SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW7W7W7NW9W5W4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S5SW4SW5SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.