Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lexington, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 7:42PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 5:38 AM EDT (09:38 UTC) Moonrise 6:21PMMoonset 6:39AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ464 Expires:201903202000;;638540 Fzus63 Kdtx 200721 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 321 Am Edt Wed Mar 20 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Low pressure of 29.80 inches will track southeast from lake superior this morning to southern lake huron by tonight. This system will bring a period of rain with gusty southerly winds this afternoon and evening. This low will then weaken as it move into eastern ontario on Thursday. The central great lakes will remain between low pressure tracking across central canada and high pressure building across the plains through the end of the week. This will allow for a period of stronger northwest winds on Friday. Lhz462>464-202000- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 321 am edt Wed mar 20 2019
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon...then decreasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots late in the evening...then decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight becoming south 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Rain with snow likely in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the morning.
Thursday..Light and variable winds becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming light and variable early in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Light and variable winds becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Friday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots becoming north to 30 knots late in the morning...then decreasing to 20 to 25 knots late in the evening. Gusts to 35 knot gales. A chance of rain in the morning. A chance of snow. Waves 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet. A gale watch may be needed.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then decreasing to 5 to 10 knots early in the evening backing to the southwest in the late evening and early morning. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots early in the evening...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of rain until early morning. A chance of snow in the late evening and early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and early morning.
LHZ464


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lexington, MI
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location: 43.35, -82.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 200720
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
320 am edt Wed mar 20 2019

Discussion
Near term today through tonight
as of 320 am edt... The first early morning of spring (although
technically does not start until around 6pm this evening) continues
to start off quiet across the region as surface high pressure
continues to slide eastward into the mid-atlantic region new
england. Generally clear skies across the region will gradually give
way to increasing cloud cover as the morning progresses ahead of two
pieces of energy approaching from the west.

One piece of energy will be associated with a northern stream wave
diving south from the northern great lakes, which continues to look
fairly robust on water vapor satellite imagery. This feature will
interact with a piece of shortwave energy ejecting out of the
central plains, with water vapor imagery also depicting a compact
circulation associated with this feature. The end result will be the
development of a weak surface low that tracks northeast across lower
michigan later today as the upper-level PV anomalies phase.

Increasing midlevel height falls will result in a modest
low midlevel mass adjustment as a LLJ increasing to around 40 knots
helps transport increasing moisture over the region as pwat values
increase over 0.50 inch. Isentropic analysis depicts modest ascent
in the 1000-700 hpa layer, but bulk of dynamic lift will correspond
to arrival of height falls this afternoon evening.

Hi-res and local probabilistic guidance are in good agreement with
precipitation holding off until after 1pm, with temperatures warming
well into the 40s and even near 50 across portions of the detroit
metro resulting in precipitation falling as rain. Coverage looks to
be widespread, especially from 3pm-8pm when the bulk of the rain
will fall. Overall intensity will generally be light in nature, with
best coverage of more moderate rain elements focused north of the m-
59 corridor. For more on expected rainfall amounts, see the
hydrology section below.

In addition to rain today, southwest flow will strengthen and become
gusty at times during the afternoon, with peak gusts 20-30 mph. Rain
will transition to more of a showery nature this evening as the
northern stream trough axis swings through. As the boundary layer
cools with loss of daytime heating, a few wet snowflakes will mix in
at times, especially north of the i-69 corridor. Not expecting much
in the way of accumulation with any wet snow activity outside of
maybe a dusting on some grassy surfaces. A weak cold front will move
south across the region tonight with winds becoming northwest in its
wake. Cold air advection will be minimal with the frontal passage
(850 hpa temps falling from -2 to -4 c) helping to keep low
temperatures at bay and settling in the low mid 30s.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
deepening longwave trough over the eastern seaboard will result in
north northwest flow setting up aloft during the day Thursday.

Shortwave ridging and strong anticyclonic vorticity advection will
ensure that Thursday is dry with high temperatures in the 40s.

Trailing shortwave energy will race south through the mean longwave
trough Thursday night into early Friday morning, and will brush
eastern areas (particularly the thumb) with scattered rain snow
showers. 00z gfs ECMWF are a little more aggressive with coverage,
with daytime heating during the day Friday potentially resulting in
activity lingering into the afternoon hours. The trailing wave will
usher in a brief period of colder temperatures Friday as the low-
level thermal trough swings through. Highs look to only reach the
upper 30s for most areas, with lower 40s possible closer the ohio
border.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
highly amplified ridging will then set up over the great lakes and
midwest for the weekend, with southeast michigan residing on the
eastern edge of the ridging. This placement will ensure dry weather
with abundant sunshine throughout much of the weekend. Building
heights thicknesses aloft will allow temperatures to rebound, with
highs Saturday back in the 40s, with upper 40s to lower 50s Sunday.

Ridging will break down late Sunday into Sunday night, with the
potential for precipitation along a developing cold front that will
sag south across the region. GFS continues to be more aggressive
with coverage, while the ECMWF remains drier. Given the overall
synoptic setup across north america, which looks to feature a quasi-
omega block pattern over canada with strong high pressure moving
from manitoba into the northern plains great lakes, will side with
the ECMWF solution as this pattern should favor the bulk of
available moisture remaining south of the region. Aforementioned
high pressure then becomes established over the region for early mid
next week with seasonable temperatures.

Marine
A low pressure system will settle across the region through tonight.

Moderate southwest winds will exist today locally in advance of this
system. Gusts 20 to 25 knots at times. A diminishing gradient as
the low passes through will allow winds to ease tonight. Modest
winds Thursday, before strengthening from the northwest Thursday
night. Strongest northwest winds noted Friday, when a period of
gusts to low end gales will be possible. Expect ice breakup to
continue with the changing wind conditions and relatively mild
weather.

Hydrology
Light rain will overspread the region this afternoon and evening.

Rainfall totals of two to four tenths of an inch are expected. Most
mainstem river levels have subsided significantly over the last
several days. The additional precipitation will only serve to slow
the steady decrease with no additional river flooding expected.

Susceptible collection areas, that likely already contain run-off
water, will swell with the additional precipitation.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1146 pm edt Tue mar 19 2019
aviation...

the onset of nighttime cooling will lead to a clearing of the
remnant diurnal CU field over the next couple hours and will lower
the south-southwest winds speeds around shortly after sunset. SE mi
will remain under the influence of departing sfc high pressure
through the night. So other than a few high clouds, this system will
sustain clear skies into early Wed morning. A deepening low pressure
system will advance into lower mi Wed afternoon evening. This system
and its associated moisture transport will allow widespread rain,
with steadily lowering ceilings, to advance across SE mi during the
course of the afternoon Wednesday.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings below 5000 ft late Wed afternoon and evening.

* high in precip type being all rain Wed afternoon and evening.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Irl
marine... ... .Mr
hydrology... .Mr
aviation... ..Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSCM4 27 mi38 min 35°F 1022.7 hPa (-1.7)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 31 mi44 min SW 8.9 G 11 34°F 1022.7 hPa25°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 33 mi44 min 35°F 1022.8 hPa
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 47 mi44 min SSW 7 G 9.9 35°F 36°F1021.8 hPa23°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI39 mi43 minS 310.00 miFair28°F24°F86%1023.7 hPa

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmW3W4W4W6W4W6SW5CalmSW3SW5S5S4S5SW3S4CalmS3S3S4S3S4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmW3NW4NW5NW6W4W7W5NE5CalmNE4CalmCalmS3S3S3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S6S7SW8S11S5S3S6S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.