Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 2:08 PM   Moonset 3:47 AM

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LHZ464 Expires:202404181000;;929864 Fzus63 Kdtx 180200 Glflh
open lake forecast for lake huron national weather service detroit/pontiac mi 1000 pm edt Wed apr 17 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on lake huron
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
Synopsis - High pressure, 30.00 inches, briefly builds over the central great lakes Thursday. Another weak cold front, 29.80 inches, then sags south through the area late Thursday night into Friday bringing widespread showers and a couple Thunderstorms. Cooler, moderate west- northwest flow sets up for the weekend.
lhz463-464-181000- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 1000 pm edt Wed apr 17 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon - .then backing to the south late in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the afternoon. Friday night - West winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight. Saturday - West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Sunday - West winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon - .then backing to the south early in the evening becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Monday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and early afternoon - .then backing to the south until early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 172357 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 757 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Next round of showers move through Thursday night.

- Drier and cooler weather Friday and into the Weekend.

AVIATION

The earlier line of thunderstorms have pushed well east of the terminals with predominately VFR ceilings in the post frontal environment. Only a few locations near the southeast Michigan terminals are experiencing MVFR ceilings at press time. Expect the more widespread MVFR ceiling to develop by around 06Z and hold through the morning. Winds will persist out of the W-SW at around 10 knots through tonight. Will see a clearing of lower clouds tomorrow afternoon with increasing coverage of high clouds into the evening ahead of the next chance for rain tomorrow night.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High for ceiling aob 5000 ft through Thursday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

DISCUSSION...

Severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 7 PM, but the line is moving through at a good clip, and watch will likely be canceled early.

Surface dew pts have mostly topped out around 60 degrees, and MLCapes have risen to 1000 J/kg but coming up short of 1500 J/kg (except right along the southern Michigan border). A few discrete cells in the line have been rotating with effective bulk shear in excess of 30 knots. Theses storms have produced large hail (Ingham county) and damaging winds (Williams county), but the bulk of line just has just produced non-severe wind gusts of 40-50 mph thus far.
Isolated tornadoes remain possible, especially over the southern counties.

Sharp convergence line, with southerly winds ahead of the front, followed by breezy westerly winds behind the front this evening as the surface low (998 mb) over northern Wisconsin slowly weakens and heads off to the northeast.

Westerly winds look to remain somewhat elevated tonight, around 10 knots, with cold advection through the night as 925 mb temps lower into the low single numbers by 12z Thursday. Even so, low clouds likely hold min temperatures in the 45 to 50 degree range.

Large and elongated (west-east) upper level trough/low over south Central Canada extending back into the northern Rockies will slowly wobble off to the east, with the trough axis passing through the Central Great Lakes on Saturday. Before this occurs, a surface low and deeper Gulf of Mexico and Pacific moisture will become absorbed in the deepening southwest flow and race off to the northeast tomorrow and tomorrow night. PW values reaching 1 inch late tomorrow over southeast Michigan, with the sharp moisture gradient setting up over Central/Eastern Great Lakes Thursday night. Good low level FGEN should support widespread rain moving through southeast Michigan.
But even this rain shield looks progressive, and total amounts under half an inch expected.

Much drier air to follow for Friday and into the Weekend, supporting dry and cooler weather (slightly below normal).

MARINE...

Weakening low pressure continues to slide towards the Straits this evening as its attendant cold front sweeps through the central Great Lakes. A line of showers and thunderstorms will precede this front with some storms being strong to severe with both large hail and >34kt wind gusts possible- mainly from southern Lake Huron/Saginaw Bay south. Winds back to westerly behind the front tonight with the loosening gradient allowing flow to weaken to aob 25kts. Brief period of ridging sets up for Thursday supporting favorable marine conditions across the region. A second cold front then sags south into the area late Thursday night into the first half of Friday offering another shot at widespread showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms mainly focused over the southern Great Lakes. Cooler westerly flow follows the fropa supporting an uptick in wind strength latter half of Friday into this weekend- peak gusts generally topping out between 20-30kts.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ361-362.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ421-422- 441>443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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