Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lexington, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:51AMSunset 6:36PM Sunday October 22, 2017 2:15 AM EDT (06:15 UTC) Moonrise 9:26AMMoonset 7:37PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ464 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 917 Pm Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
.gale watch in effect from Monday afternoon through late Tuesday night...
Rest of tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Monday..South winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and early morning...then backing to the northwest with gusts to 30 knots after midnight. Showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and early morning...then building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots until early morning. Showers likely early in the morning...then a chance of showers early in the evening. Waves 8 to 12 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet until early morning. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots until early evening...then becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LHZ464 Expires:201710220830;;211685 FZUS63 KDTX 220117 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 917 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.20 inches, is moving off the East Coast This afternoon. A cold front, 29.90 inches, will then move through the Central Great Lakes Sunday Night. Deepening low pressure is then forecast to lift into the area early next week. LHZ462>464-220830-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lexington, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.35, -82.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kdtx 220414
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1214 am edt Sun oct 22 2017

Aviation
Low levels will remain dry for one more day (ceiling free below 12
kft), but increasing southerly flow (around 15 knots) ahead of a
cold front will allow for quickly lowering ceilings near and just
after sunset, with MVFR showers likely making it into mbs and fnt
toward midnight.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium confidence in cigs AOB 5000 ft by 5z Monday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 326 pm edt Sat oct 21 2017
discussion...

near term through 6 am Sunday morning
as of 325 pm edt... Another warm and precip-free day continues across
southeast michigan, with temperatures warming well into the 70s
under partly cloudy skies. The region sits between a departing area
of surface high pressure weak upper-level ridging centered across the
mid-atlantic region and a deepening longwave trough over the west-
central conus. This synoptic pattern has continued the
south southwest low-level flow, which has helped keep temperatures
well above average the past few days. Atmospheric column continues to
be quite dry, with a pwat of only 0.43 inch noted on the observed
kdtx 12z sounding and barren of moisture up through 500 hpa. Thus,
the partly cloudy skies are in the form of mid and high level clouds,
still allowing for relatively bountiful sunshine.

For tonight, dry weather will continue as a cold front slowly
approaches the region from the west. Broad diffluence aloft between
the departing high and approaching trough will allow for mid high
clouds to continue streaming across the region, with low-level dry
air remaining entrenched. A persistent southerly breeze of 5-10 mph
will help keep low temperatures elevated and generally in the low
and mid 50s, although a few rural areas may briefly dip into the
upper 40s if low-level winds can slacken for any period of time.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday night
strong low pressure system to possibly bring heavy rain and gusty
winds to region Monday into Tuesday...

the short term period will mark a transition as the northern and
southern streams become very active. The forecast scenario continues
to be a complex one, but a solution that is now seeing increasing
confidence based on the latest suite of model guidance and trends
over the past 24 hours.

Sunday will mark the last day of the current unseasonably warm and
dry weather pattern that has been in place. High temperatures again
on Sunday will easily reach into the 70s, with several locations
making a run at 80 degrees (record highs possibly within reach) with
brisk southwest flow. The aforementioned cold front will continue to
slowly approach the region from the west as longwave troughing
continues to deepen as far south as the northern gulf of mexico, in
response to potent northern stream PV energy ejecting out of the
rockies.

Meanwhile, the southern stream will also become active as the
subtropical jet intensifies in response to the expanding baroclinic
zone between the still warm gulf waters and colder, northern stream
air diving south. Model guidance is now coming into agreement that a
split flow regime will set up for the latter half of Sunday into
early Monday, as initial northern stream energy moves north of lake
superior, while the southern stream briefly develops into a cutoff
low.

Heading into Sunday night, the cold front will continue to slowly
approach the region, and now looks to stall somewhere in the
vicinity of central michigan. The front will gradually be weakening
with time as any lingering frontogenesis and dynamics are gradually
sheared away in the split flow. Still, enough moisture pooling out
ahead of the front riding a fairly impressive low-level moisture
transport surge should generate at least scattered showers,
especially after midnight. Rainfall amounts with the front itself
will generally be on the lighter side, a quarter of an inch or less.

Then attention shifts to the Monday-Tuesday timeframe, which will
literally feature dynamic weather. Despite a brief southern stream
cutoff low, the midlevel height fields will remain positively-
tilted, allowing for the low to become an open wave and the
combination of the lingering PV lobe and subtropical jet rounding
the base of the trough axis spawning cyclogenesis in the tennessee
river valley Sunday night. Further upstream, another shot of
northern stream PV will eject into the split flow, racing
southeastward across the upper plains Sunday night and into Monday.

The resulting injection of potent dynamics looks increasingly likely
to evolve into a scenario more reminiscent of a classic miller type
a low pressure system, but instead of becoming a powerful
nor'easter, is displaced roughly 600 miles west. As cyclogenesis
rapidly ensues during the day Monday, the intensifying low-level
southerly flow will open up the gulf of mexico, with increasing
tropical moisture rapidly moving north towards the lower great
lakes. In the upper-levels, a classic dual-jet structure will
develop, with southeast michigan being placed within the favorable
northern stream right-entrance region and approaching left-exit
region of the southern stream jet. The end result of these features
will be a rapidly developing surface low as phasing occurs between
the northern and southern streams.

The 12z gfs, ukmet, and canadian operational runs (along with a
large percentage of their ensemble members) are now in agreement
with the 12z ECMWF with the development of strong low pressure that
tracks somewhere between central mi and eastern oh. There still
remains some time for the model guidance to hone in on a more narrow
track, but the guidance is rather remarkably in good clustering with
this scenario despite the predecessor split flow regime. Guidance is
also in good agreement with the strength of the system, deepening
the rapidly intensifying low to sub 990 hpa in the vicinity of lake
huron as phasing occurs sometime late Monday into Tuesday.

This forecast scenario will result in a period of potential high
impact weather beginning during the day Monday and continuing into
Tuesday, ultimately dependent on the exact track of the surface low.

As tropical moisture is drawn into this system, pwat values will
rebound to around 1.5 inches and along with plenty of jet dynamics,
frontogenetical, deformation, and isentropic forcing, there is the
threat for heavy rainfall Monday into Tuesday. It is still too early
to pinpoint exact ranges of possible amounts, but several inches of
rain (2+) will be possible in a roughly 12-18 hr time window
sometime late Monday into early Tuesday morning. The weather
prediction center has now highlighted all of southeast michigan in a
marginal risk in their day 3 excessive rainfall forecast.

Depending on the eventual track of the surface low, high winds may
also come into play for at least a portion of the area. This
scenario will highly be dependent on the surface low track. For now,
agree with the thinking of weather prediction center and will side
with a track favoring a blend of the 12z GFS ecmwf, which takes the
low just east of the area.

Forecast becomes more uncertain heading into Tuesday as the likely
sub 990 hpa low pressure lifts north into ontario. GFS continues
with a more progressive solution, while the ECMWF stalls the low
solidly in the mid 980s hpa in the vicinity of the straits, which
would lead to a prolonged period of deformation rain showers and
gusty winds continuing into Wednesday. Temperatures will trend back
towards normal after Sunday, with highs Monday in the 60s and in the
50s Tuesday, with lows generally in the 40s.

While model guidance is now in much better agreement with the
overall synoptic pattern accompanying this low pressure system,
there are mesoscale factors that have yet to be resolved and will
play a significant factor in the intensity of impacts we may face.

Still, interests in southeast michigan should continue to pay close
attention to the forecast over the coming days, as a more clearer
picture evolves.

With the trough axis over the region on Wednesday, cool and
unsettled conditions will continue as a northern stream wave
dropping through the region keeps a chance for showers in the
forecast. Ridging then noses into the region on Thursday as the
trough shifts east yielding drier conditions. Southerly flow will
increase during the late week timeframe ahead of a strengthening low
pressure system over the northern plains bringing a warming trend to
the region with highs approaching 60 by Friday. This low is then
progged to slowly track over the northern great lakes next weekend.

Model solutions diverge late next week on the the timing of a cold
frontal passage and associated shower chances across SE michigan.

The GFS favors a quicker frontal passage on Friday while the ecmwf
keeps the front just to the west of SE michigan through Saturday.

Regardless, upper level troughing looks to return next weekend
bringing a return to cool, unsettled conditions across the region.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
with the trough axis over the region on Wednesday, cool and
unsettled conditions will continue as a northern stream wave
dropping through the region keeps a chance for showers in the
forecast. Ridging then noses into the region on Thursday as the
trough shifts east yielding drier conditions. Southerly flow will
increase during the late week timeframe ahead of a strengthening low
pressure system over the northern plains bringing a warming trend to
the region with highs approaching 60 by Friday. This low is then
progged to slowly track over the northern great lakes next weekend.

Model solutions diverge late next week on the the timing of a cold
frontal passage and associated shower chances across SE michigan.

The GFS favors a quicker frontal passage on Friday while the ecmwf
keeps the front just to the west of SE michigan through Saturday.

Regardless, upper level troughing looks to return next weekend
bringing a return to cool, unsettled conditions across the region.

Marine...

moderate to fresh southerly flow will persist until a cold front
traverses the waters Monday into Monday night. Winds will quickly
become strong and westerly in the wake of the front gusting to at
least near-gales as low pressure lifts from the ohio valley into
ontario. The exact track and strength of the low are uncertain at
this time and a wide range of outcomes remains possible because the
low will track directly over or very near the lakes... The former
resulting in a more subdued wind scenario. Despite uncertainty... The
potential for significant impacts Monday evening through Tuesday
evening warrants the issuance of a gale watch. Note that the wind
and wave forecast is likely to undergo noteworthy changes over the
next few forecast cycles.

Hydrology...

a cold front carrying a band of showers will work into the area late
Sunday evening into early Sunday morning before a rapidly
strengthening low develops along it causing it to become nearly
stationary over lower michigan. Although the strength and track of
the low remain uncertain at this time, there is potential for more
than 2 inches of rain over a portion of the area Monday into Monday
night as strong deformation forcing lifts through the peninsula.

Urban and small stream flooding will be a possibility during this
time.

Climate...

record high temperatures will be possible across portions of
southeast michigan Sunday. Here is a look at record high
temperatures for Sunday, october 22nd:
record temperatures for october 21...

detroit 80 (set in 1979)
saginaw tri-cities 82 (set in 1979)
flint 81 (set in 1920)

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale watch from Monday afternoon through late Tuesday night for
lhz361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

Lake st clair... Gale watch from Monday afternoon through late Tuesday night for
lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Gale watch from Monday afternoon through late Tuesday night for
lez444.

Aviation... ..Sf
discussion... Irl jd
marine... ... .Jvc
hydrology... Jvc
climate... Irl jd
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 13 mi76 min S 12 G 14 62°F 61°F1021 hPa (-0.4)
PSCM4 27 mi76 min SSW 4.1 G 6 58°F 1021 hPa (-0.3)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 31 mi46 min SSW 7 G 12 62°F 1020.7 hPa52°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 33 mi46 min 62°F 1020.6 hPa
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 47 mi46 min S 8.9 G 11 61°F 1019.3 hPa51°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
Last
24hr
SW7
G10
SW9
SW7
SW7
SW6
G9
SW7
G10
SW6
S7
G10
S7
G11
SW5
G12
SW10
G14
SW7
G14
SW8
G14
S12
G16
S11
G16
S10
G13
S10
G14
S9
G12
S10
S9
G12
S12
G17
SW9
SW10
G13
SW6
G11
1 day
ago
W6
G10
SW3
SW4
SW6
SW6
SW6
SW7
S4
G7
S7
SW10
G13
S10
G14
SW12
G17
SW10
G15
SW12
G16
SW7
G14
SW5
G12
S7
G10
SW5
SW4
G7
S8
S6
G9
SW5
G8
SW5
SW7
G11
2 days
ago
SW8
G12
SW7
SW7
G10
SW6
G9
SW5
G9
W8
G12
W6
G10
W6
G10
W8
G11
W6
G11
W6
G10
W7
G11
W4
G7
W6
G10
W5
W5
SW4
SW5
W4
W6
W7
W7
G11

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI39 mi21 minN 010.00 miFair52°F50°F94%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
Last 24hrCalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S7S5S9S7S9S7S8S6S4SE5SE5S6S7S5Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S6S9S10S11S10
G14
S9
G15
S8S5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW6SW6SW8S7
G15
SW5SW4SW5SW6W5SW6W6W7
G15
W6W6
G16
W8W6W3CalmCalmSW3SW3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (2,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.