Tuesday, October17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bunker Hill, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 6:30PM Tuesday October 17, 2017 5:18 PM PDT (00:18 UTC) Moonrise 4:12AMMoonset 4:54PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 236 Pm Pdt Tue Oct 17 2017
.gale watch in effect from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning...
.hazardous seas warning in effect from Wednesday evening through Friday evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening...
Tonight..SE wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to nw early in the evening, then...becoming variable less than 5 kt late in the evening...becoming S 5 kt after midnight... Rising to 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. SWell nw 6 to 8 ft at 11 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Wed..S wind 10 to 20 kt...rising to 20 to 25 kt late in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. SWell nw 6 to 7 ft at 10 seconds.
Wed night..S wind 20 to 25 kt...becoming 30 kt after midnight. Wind waves 4 to 7 ft...building to 6 to 9 ft after midnight. W swell 6 ft at 10 seconds...building to 8 to 9 ft at 10 seconds after midnight. Rain likely.
Thu..S wind 30 kt...easing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 8 to 11 ft. W swell 10 ft...building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Thu night..SW wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 6 to 7 ft... Subsiding to 4 to 5 ft after midnight. SWell W 18 to 20 ft. Showers and slight chance of tstms.
Fri..SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 5 to 6 ft. SWell W 17 to 19 ft. Showers likely.
Fri night..SW wind 15 kt...backing to S after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 16 ft...subsiding to 12 ft after midnight. Showers.
Sat..S wind 30 kt...easing to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 8 to 10 ft...subsiding to 7 ft after midnight. SWell W 13 ft.
Sun..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 4 ft in the morning... Becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 11 to 13 ft.
PZZ300 236 Pm Pdt Tue Oct 17 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..SEas will be dominated by short period northwest swell tonight. Winds will switch to southerly Wednesday across the waters and increase ahead of a strong cold front Wednesday night to Thursday morning. Gales are possible port orford northward. Long period and large northwest swells build into the waters late Thursday into Friday behind the front, creating very high and steep seas, and dangerous surf and bar conditions.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bunker Hill, OR
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location: 43.36, -124.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 172116
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
216 pm pdt Tue oct 17 2017

Discussion 17 12z nam GFS ec in.

The northern hemispheric map is a bit amorphous this afternoon...

just a blob of cool air centered at the pole with a hard-to-
discern wave number... Four maybe? However, this will change later
this week as the pattern transitions to a progressive wave
pattern. This will correspond with a transition to an active
weather pattern for the pacific northwest.

For now, flat ridging is in place over the west coast. A short
wave embedded in the flow has moved onshore but it hasn't amounted
to much. No precipitation has been reported at this time. The main
frontal band remains offshore but it doesn't look impressive
either. There are some gusty winds over the ridges and east side
though with peak gusts around 25 mph.

The ridge, what there is of it, will break to the east of the cwa
Wednesday and southwest flow aloft will increase over the area as
a long wave trough deepens offshore. This will open the storm
door, and short waves ejecting from the offshore trough will
barrel through it.

The first few waves will be weak and the impacts will be similar
to the system moving onshore today. However, a much stronger one
will move onshore Thursday into Thursday night, and this will
support a wet and windy front which will move onshore just ahead
of the trough Thursday.

The mid shift summarized the impacts of this system well and they
are listed below:
*impacts: ponding on roadways, debris flows near burn scars near
the coast and western siskiyou county.

*slippery, snow-covered roads over the higher passes in the
cascades near crater lake and diamond lake. Light snow on highway
140 near lake of the woods.

*travel may become difficult for high profile vehicles due to
strong southerly winds along the coastal headlands, shasta
valley, and east of the cascades.

*isolated trees may fall near burn scars due to high winds.

Snow levels will start off above 8000 feet on Thursday and will
drop to 4000 to 4500 feet by Friday evening as the precipitation
comes to an end. Some of the higher passes could see some moderate
snow, particularly near crater lake and diamond lake; but lower
passes like highway 140 near lake of the woods will only see light
snow. Siskiyou summit may see a few flurries on Friday, but it is
more likely that the precipitation will end before it changes
over to snow.

Precipitation totals will be significant, especially at the
coast. Rain rates will be less than a quarter of an inch an hour,
but some coastal areas could see 1.5 inches in 6 hours and some
inland areas will get 1 inch in 6 hours. Rivers are still low and
soils are dry from the summer, but a few impacts could still be
felt, particularly for coastal rivers.

This will be one of the first wind events in our forecast area
for the season. The strongest winds will occur at the coast
Wednesday night into Thursday with shasta valley and east side
winds ramping up Thursday into Friday morning. This could create
some travel difficulties, especially for high profile vehicles.

There may be some treefalls due to the winds, particularly near
recent burn scars.

The long wave upper trough will move onshore Friday, and short
waves will continue to move through the trough. This will support
widespread shower activity into Friday. The offshore upper level
ridge will amplify as it approaches the coast, and this will cause
the front to lift back north as a strong and quite wet warm front
Saturday, followed by a weaker trailing cold front Saturday night
into Sunday.

The offshore ridge will be quite strong by this time just off the
coast. Low level flow will turn easterly Sunday night into Monday,
so the area will dry out quickly at that time. Easterly flow will
weaken Monday into Tuesday, but it will remain dry with no
incoming systems initially. A weak front may bring some
precipitation to the north coast and umpqua basin Wednesday.

Aviation 17 18z TAF cycle... MVFR CIGS lingers along the coast
down to CAPE blanco until early this afternoon before lifting to
vfr. Satellite imagery shows widespread MVFR conditions in the
coastal waters with the area extending into NW coos county. This is
in response to a weak trough that will move through the area this
afternoon. Expect MVFR to return to the coos county coast this
evening with ifr at oth again from 2200 through Wednesday morning.

Fb

Marine Updated 200 pm pdt Tuesday 17 october 2017... Relatively
mild conditions will continue tonight into early Wednesday as high
pressure remains over the area. Things are on track for the next
front to bring stronger south winds to the marine waters Wednesday
afternoon. Confidence is approaching moderate for south winds to
reach gale Wednesday night and Thursday from reedsport south to
around port orford. Winds are expected to decrease below gale
Thursday afternoon and turn more westerly behind the cold front.

Long period and large northwest swells (around 20 feet at 17
seconds) build into the waters late Thursday into Friday behind the
front, creating dangerous surf and bar conditions. The front is
expected to move back as a warm front, and winds are expected to
increase again Friday night and Saturday with guidance showing gale
force winds again. Fb

Hydrology There will be some hydrologic concerns with the
Wednesday night into Friday system. Currently, soils are dry and
rivers are low, but there will be enough rain to create possible
debris flows near recent burn scars. The river levels will not be
an issue itself, but the debris may obstruct river flows at
times, creating elevated river levels upstream of the block at
first, then downstream of the block if and when it breaks free. If
you come across a flooded road, find an alternate route. Remember
to turn around, don't drown.

Debris floating down the river combined with high surf may create
dangerous bar conditions near the port of brookings.

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Gale watch from Wednesday evening through
Thursday morning for pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning from 5 pm to 11 pm pdt Wednesday for
pzz356.

Hazardous seas warning from 11 am Thursday to 11 pm pdt Friday
for pzz356.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm to 5 pm pdt Wednesday for
pzz350-370.

Hazardous seas warning from 5 pm Wednesday to 11 pm pdt Friday
for pzz350-370-376.

15 15 08


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 11 mi49 min W 5.1 G 7 51°F1021.2 hPa
46260 18 mi169 min 53°F8 ft
46128 22 mi79 min 1.9 1022.2 hPa
46261 28 mi169 min 53°F8 ft
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 36 mi86 min 55°F10 ft
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 47 mi49 min NW 9.9 G 14 61°F 50°F1020.5 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR8 mi23 minNW 710.00 miFair61°F51°F70%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN16N15N12N7N6N4CalmSE4S4S4SE3SE5SE5SE7SE8SE8SE4SE9SE9SE6E53W7W7
1 day agoN12N13N7N9N6NE4S3SE4SE5--SE3CalmSE4SE4SE5SE3E3CalmCalmW7NW5N9N13N13
2 days agoN11N9N7N4NE6N5N5CalmN7NE4N5NE6N4N6N6N6N5N4W3N7N9N8N12N12

Tide / Current Tables for Coos Bay, Oregon
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Coos Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:13 AM PDT     6.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:12 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:24 AM PDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:33 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:48 PM PDT     7.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:55 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:29 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 06:58 PM PDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.86.65.74.32.71.30.60.61.52.94.66.17.27.46.85.63.92.31.10.71.12.23.75.3

Tide / Current Tables for Empire, Coos Bay, Oregon
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Empire
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:12 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:46 AM PDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:34 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:59 AM PDT     6.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:55 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:20 PM PDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:30 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
65.34.22.81.50.70.51.12.23.75.26.36.76.35.342.51.30.70.91.734.45.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.