Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bunker Hill, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:42PM Sunday May 20, 2018 2:54 PM PDT (21:54 UTC) Moonrise 10:09AMMoonset 12:09AM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 836 Am Pdt Sun May 20 2018
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Today..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tonight..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 ft at 10 seconds.
Mon..N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 3 ft in the afternoon. W swell 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Mon night..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. W swell 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 4 ft.
Tue night..N wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 4 to 5 ft.
Wed..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft in the morning... Becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 6 ft.
Thu..N wind 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 3 ft in the evening, then...becoming 2 ft or less after midnight. W swell 5 to 6 ft.
PZZ300 836 Am Pdt Sun May 20 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Light seas and moderate northerly winds will persist through this morning. North winds increase this afternoon, leading to steep wind driven seas. Winds will be strongest south of cape blanco and seas will be steepest south of gold beach. Winds and seas peak Monday afternoon as the thermal trough peaks in strength, gradually subsiding late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bunker Hill, OR
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location: 43.36, -124.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 202132
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
232 pm pdt Sun may 20 2018

Discussion From the trinity alps ,through mount shasta, north
through the cascades, and all points east, the radar has lit up
with numerous showers and thunderstorms. These cells are
progressing slowly to the east and northeast, producing light to
moderate rain and a few rumbles of thunder. Expect convective
activity to peak later this afternoon, then taper off through the
evening.

The open upper level trough overhead, responsible for producing
the cooler and more unstable weather today, will close off and
slide to the south, taking up temporary residence over southern
nevada and california. This will keep precipitation chances out
of all but the far southeastern portions of lake and modoc
counties Monday, as ridging will be allowed to nudge in from the
west. This will also allow for the development of the thermal
trough to our south, which in turn will produce warming
temperatures and dry east flow.

The trough will then meander north Tuesday, while the thermal
trough extends northward and pushes inland. This looks to be the
warmest day for much of the area, but at the same time, shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase along and east of the cascades
and along and south of the siskiyous as moisture and instability
return along with the upper level trough. The trough is expected o
open and join back up with the main belt of westerlies Tuesday
night, and move to the north by Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a
second, much more robust upper level low over the eastern pacific
will approach the coastline. This pattern is expected to produce
plenty of moisture inflow, as well as increased diffluence aloft,
and lift in the mid levels. These are the prime ingredients for
another round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms, and given
the amount of moisture possible, some of this convection could
produce a good deal of rain. It is worth noting, that given the
quick transition between troughs Tuesday and Wednesday, we could
see thunderstorms continue through the night Tuesday and into
Wednesday morning.

Overall, have bumped temperatures up slightly, especially for the
south coast Monday and the inland valleys Tuesday, and increased
the chances for precipitation throughout the first half of the
week, except for Monday which should trend mostly dry. -bpn
extended term... Thursday through Sunday... There remains a
significant degree of uncertainty in the extended forecast, but
not as much as yesterday. It all depends on where a persistent
cutoff low sets up and the model solutions, while still in
disagreement, have converged a bit since yesterday.

The 20 00z GFS and ec ensembles help to clarify this issue a bit.

Both are advertising the cutoff setting up off the central
california coast but the ec solution has a tighter cluster of
ensemble members where the cutoff is located.

Given this, will continue to favor the ec solution due to greater
consistency, both run-to-run and within the same run. The ec
solution keeps thecutoff closer to the medford CWA and this means
a forecast of showers and thunderstorms Thursday through
Saturday.

On Wednesday afternoon, the cutoff will be near 35n 135w with
weak southerly flow aloft over the forecast area. The low will
move slowly northeast to around 38n 127w Thursday afternoon with
flow aloft becoming southeasterly and increasing a bit. The low
won't move much into Saturday afternoon.

This pattern will advect a steady flow of moisture into the area
through Thursday through Saturday. Precipitable water values are
not available from the ec model, but the GFS shows quite a bit of
moisture Thursday... 0.75 to 1.00 over the entire area. Friday
overall is just a bit drier, but with a higher range from around
0.66 inches to just over an inch. Saturday is forecast to be very
wet indeed with 1.00-1.50 inches over the west side and 0.75 to
1.00 inches east.

As the low moves closer, cooling aloft will enhance the
convective environment. The ec 850mb lifted indices lack
resolution, but they still depict significant lifting over most of
the inland portions of the cwa, the umpqua basin excepted,
Thursday evening. The GFS is less bullish on convection, which
makes sense as it places the cutoff farther offshore. On Friday,
the ec GOES with an east side convective scenario. The GFS lifted
indices go a bit bananas this day and looks anomolous with very
high lis over the west side. On Saturday, both models shows
broader coverage over the east side and siskiyou county with some
intrusion into the west side.

Sunday looks to be the transition day, as the low is forecast to
lift back into the westerlies at that time, weakening and moving
through the medford CWA as it does so. The air mass stabilizes
once the low moves through. This is a pretty dicey forecast this
far out and forecast confidence is low.

If this forecast pans out, it's going to be pretty busy around
here for the second half of the week.

As for temperatures, model output now suggests Thursday will be
the hottest day in the extended period with inland highs 5-10
degrees above normal. Temperatures will then cool to around 5
degrees above normal Friday, though the east side will be slower
to cool. After that, inland temperatures will generally range from
normal to around 5 degrees above normal. Coastal temperatures
will not stray far from normal. -jrs

Aviation 20 18z TAF cycle... Along the coast, there may be a
brief period of clearing this afternoon as gusty winds help
scatter out the marine layer. However, the lower conditions will
return this evening.

Inland,VFR to MVFR prevails for the next 24 hours. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms east of the cascades will increase in
coverage and intensity this afternoon. This could lead to
temporary MVFR and gusty and erratic winds. Stratus should return
to similar locations and heights as this morning. -sbn

Marine Updated 230 am pdt Sunday 20 may 2018... North winds
increase this afternoon, leading to steep wind driven seas. Winds
will be strongest south of CAPE blanco and seas will be steepest
south of gold beach. Winds and seas peak Monday afternoon as the
thermal trough peaks in strength, gradually subsiding late Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday. -sbn

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 5 am pdt Wednesday for pzz356-376.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 5 am pdt Wednesday
for pzz350-356-370-376.

Bpn jrs sbn


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 11 mi79 min NNW 11 G 13 56°F1019.5 hPa
46128 22 mi55 min N 12 55°F1027.3 hPa (+4.5)
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 36 mi62 min 57°F5 ft
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 47 mi55 min N 12 G 16 56°F 49°F1018.5 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR8 mi59 minNNW 1310.00 miOvercast59°F48°F67%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW15N15NW16
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1 day agoN11N11N12N11N10N9N10NE4N7NE6N5N7N4NE5CalmE5E5E5Calm6NW9NW8N10N15
2 days agoNW13N13N13N13N11N9N7NW6N6N3NW6NW4NW6NW3N4NW4NW6NW53N4N3N5NW6NW7

Tide / Current Tables for Coos Bay, Oregon
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Coos Bay
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Sun -- 01:09 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:28 AM PDT     7.24 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:47 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:09 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:26 PM PDT     -0.96 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:21 PM PDT     6.25 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:39 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.53.14.25.46.57.27.16.453.11.3-0.1-0.9-0.801.434.55.66.26.15.44.43.4

Tide / Current Tables for Empire, Coos Bay, Oregon
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Empire
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:09 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:39 AM PDT     6.48 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:47 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:10 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:48 AM PDT     -0.96 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:32 PM PDT     5.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:40 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.83.64.75.76.36.45.94.83.21.60.2-0.7-0.9-0.40.82.23.74.85.55.55.14.33.52.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.