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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 903 Pm Pdt Mon Apr 15 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday afternoon through late Wednesday night - .
Tonight - N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves N 4 ft at 5 seconds. SWell nw 6 ft at 11 seconds. Tue - N wind 10 to 15 kt - .rising to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves N 3 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 6 ft at 11 seconds. Tue night - N wind 20 to 25 kt - .becoming ne 15 to 20 kt early in the morning. Wind waves N 6 ft at 6 seconds. SWell nw 4 to 5 ft at 10 seconds. Wed - NE wind 10 to 20 kt - .backing to N 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves N 4 ft at 5 seconds. NW swell 4 ft at 10 seconds. Wed night - N wind 20 to 25 kt - .easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves N 5 ft at 5 seconds. SWell nw 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds. Thu - N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves N 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell nw 2 ft at 9 seconds and sw 1 to 2 ft at 17 seconds. Thu night - N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves N 3 ft at 5 seconds. SW swell 1 to 2 ft at 16 seconds - . Building to 3 ft at 16 seconds after midnight. Fri - NE wind 10 kt - .veering to S after midnight. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds - .shifting to the W 2 ft at 4 seconds in the evening, then - .shifting to the S 2 ft at 4 seconds after midnight. SWell sw 2 to 3 ft at 14 seconds. Sat - SW wind 10 kt - .veering to nw. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 4 seconds - .shifting to the nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell sw 3 ft at 14 seconds and W 2 ft at 13 seconds - .building to W 5 ft at 13 seconds.

PZZ300 903 Pm Pdt Mon Apr 15 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - A thermal trough pattern will bring strong gusty north winds and steep to very steep and hazardous seas through much of the week. Initially, hazardous conditions are expected south of cape blanco through Tuesday morning. The thermal trough strengthens Tuesday into Wednesday and winds will increase to gale force in the afternoons and evenings for areas south of port orford. Meanwhile, conditions hazardous to small craft will expand to all areas north of cape blanco. Conditions improve some on Thursday as the thermal trough weakens and winds ease, but seas are likely to remain steep through the end of the week.

FXUS66 KMFR 160551 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1050 PM PDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.Updated Aviation Discussion.

16/06Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail across the region, though terrain obscurations remain present, especially west of the Cascades. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period and current cloud cover will likely linger into the overnight hours, but should dissipate late tonight into early Tuesday morning as drier air moves into the region. The exception will be in Roseburg where marine stratus will move there towards 10z, before breaking up around 18z. -Petrucelli


DISCUSSION
It will be dry for the rest of the night and any mention of pops have been removed. Satellite image shows low clouds banked up along the west facing slopes of the Cascades, banked up along the Umpqua Divide and in the Coquille Basin.
Elsewhere it's clear and this will allow temperatures to drop quicker compared to recent nights. Other than removing pops from the forecast, everything else is on track. For details on the rest of the forecast period, please see the previous discussion below.
-Petrucelli




MARINE
Updated 830 PM Monday, April 15, 2024...A thermal trough pattern will bring strong gusty north winds to the waters through much of the week. Steep to very steep wind driven seas are expected south of Cape Blanco through Tuesday morning. The thermal trough peaks in strength Tuesday into Wednesday and this is when we expect north winds to reach gale force during the afternoons and evenings from Gold Beach southward. Additionally, conditions hazardous to small craft are expected to expand north of Cape Blanco resulting in steep to very steep wind driven seas across all areas, with the steepest seas expected south of Port Orford. Hazards have been updated this evening to reflect this change in forecast, with a Hazardous Seas Warning now in effect through Tuesday afternoon and a Gale Warning in effect from Tuesday afternoon through early Thursday morning.

The thermal trough weakens Thursday into Friday, and this is when conditions are expected to improve, though steep seas are likely to linger through the end of the week. /BR-y



PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 509 PM PDT Mon Apr 15 2024/

Updated AVIATION Discussion...

AVIATION
16/00Z TAFs
VFR conditions prevail across the region, though terrain obscurations remain present, especially west of the Cascades. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period and current cloud cover will likely linger into the overnight hours, but should dissipate late tonight into early Tuesday morning as drier air moves into the region. /BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 231 PM PDT Mon Apr 15 2024/

SHORT TERM...A weak front is moving inland to the north and has resulted in light rain showers over parts of Coos and Douglas County today. Showers are forecast to taper off this evening.
Low to mid clouds will linger overnight into Tuesday morning, especially west of the Cascades. These clouds will limit frost potential tonight. Models support zonal flow to weak ridging over the area tonight through mid week with dry weather, cool to cold overnight temperatures and mild to warm daytime highs.

There is a potential for freezing temperatures in some west side valleys Tuesday night and Wednesday, including the Rogue, Applegate and Illinois valleys as well as into Siskiyou County.
The coldest night is expected to be Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with frost likely in many valleys west of the Cascades and a moderate chance (30-50%) of freezing temperatures in the Applegate and Illinois Valleys. Portions of the Rogue Valley will also see a chance (20-25%) for freezing temperatures. This will bring a potential for agricultural impacts. So a freeze watch has been issued for parts of Josephine and Jackson counties.
Additional cold temperatures are possible Wednesday night and Thursday morning as cool air remains in place and there are lower humidities and clear skies.

LONG TERM...Thursday (04/18) through Monday (04/22)...The extended period starts as high pressure peaks across the PNW region, and the thermal trough gets displaced inland. Temperatures on Friday will peak in the mid-to-upper 70s west of the Cascades and upper 60s east of the Cascades. These temperatures are about 10 to 15 degrees above normal. However, while the heat risk is very low, the sun will be hot. Don't be like me and venture into the mountains, to the lakeshore, or trudge to work without sunscreen and sun-protective clothing.

Winds will setup in a typical summer-time diurnal pattern through Friday, with stronger up valley flows in the afternoon. Meanwhile at night winds will be light to nearly calm. Overnight temperatures will remain around freezing east of the Cascades, but to the west, temperatures will creep warmer into the 40s.

While this region experiences some summer-like warmth, a broad low pressure system will be developing in the Gulf of Alaska. After a few frosty mornings and warm days, this area of low pressure will move across the Canadian Rockies. This will be enough to cause a pattern change here, too, and cool the region back closer to normal temperatures. Across the Cascades, Douglas County, and coast this pattern is expected to result in a low chance (10-30%), low precipitation ( less than 0.1") rain event.

-Miles

MARINE
Updated 200 PM Monday, April 15, 2024
A thermal trough is strengthening today. This pattern will bring another round of gusty north winds, along with steep to very steep seas, especially south of Cape Blanco.

The thermal trough is expected to peak Tuesday evening into Wednesday when strong gusty winds are expected to expand north of Cape Blanco. There is uncertainty as to how far north this expansion will occur. A Small Craft Advisory that begins this afternoon will continue through Thursday morning as steep to very steep seas are possible. Gusty north winds will persist into Thursday, with conditions expected to improve toward the end of the week.
/Smith/Hermansen

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for ORZ024-026.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-370.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.

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