Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kennebunkport, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 7:07PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 7:00 PM EDT (23:00 UTC) Moonrise 7:37AMMoonset 9:05PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 616 Pm Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday evening...
Rest of tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 15 kt...becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain or snow likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain or snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain or snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..N winds 15 to 25 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain or snow in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ100 616 Pm Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Northwest winds are expected today and tonight as high pressure moves in from the west. The high crosses the gulf of maine on Thursday. Low pressure will move by south of cape cod Friday night into Saturday. Another low may take a similar track next Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kennebunkport, ME
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location: 43.37, -70.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 292222
afdgyx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service gray me
622 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will gradually build in from the northwest through
Thursday. Expect a mostly sunny day on Thursday with
temperatures near normal for this time of year. Low pressure
tracking through the ohio valley will track off the southern new
england coastline Friday night, spreading snow through northern
new england which will last into the day on Saturday. There may
be some rain near the coast. High pressure follows quickly on
the heels of the departing low Sunday into Sunday night. The
next low pressure system may impact our area on Tuesday with
another chance of rain or wintry precipitation.

Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/
2220z update...

isolated rain/snow showers are extending a bit farther towards
the augusta and mid coast region as well as the foothills.

Therefore pops/wx grids were adjusted for the next hour or so
until these showers dissipate in more aggressive downslope flow.

The only other changes at this time were in line with current
mesoscale temperature trends.

Previous discussion...

clouds should break up a bit more tonight as downsloping
northwest winds provide subsidence to the coastal plain. Clouds
will linger to the northwest of the mountains in the upslope
areas. Temperatures fall into the 20s to near 30 which is near
normal for this time of year.

Short term /6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday/
High pressure moves into the area during the day on Thursday.

Expect a mostly sunny sky with temperatures generally in the 40s
to possibly near 50 degrees.

Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/
Confidence continues to grow in a significant late season
snowfall for a good portion of the CWA Friday into Saturday.

However, there still remains several differences between
members in the 12z guidance suite which which lends to
continued uncertainty in snowfall amounts and the spatial
coverage of heavy snowfall amounts.

The ECMWF and the ECMWF ensemble has been the most consistent on
a run to run basis. The ensemble has shown a nice steady,
orderly uptick in 6" probabilities over the last 4 runs
(including the 12z run which now has a large area of 50-60%
probs of greater than 12" across southern nh). The NAM is in the
euro camp, but at this time I think the onset time of heavy snow
is too early and QPF too heavy. The GFS continues to be a
southern outlier due to non-existent help from a northern stream
short wave trough that most of the rest of the guidance suite
has. In essence, what the northernmost guidance members are
doing is digging the northern stream short wave trough into
northern new england which is helping to bring north the
moisture associated with the southern stream trough (sorta like
a partial phase). This process is helping to bring april-like
pwats into a winter storm system which is resulting in pretty
high QPF in several models. We took a blend of the two camps,
but gave a bit of an edge to a ECMWF and ggem blend.

Some concerns with mixing with sleet and rain still exist. On
Friday, boundary layer temps may be warm enough, especially in
maine and the merrimack valley of new hampshire to the seacoast.

Snow accumulations through mid afternoon Friday may be limited
due to melting and a mix with rain. However, when the higher
uvvs move in, we expect snow to become dominant over rain. The
other issue is that some warmer air may advect in from the south
above the boundary layer to the mid levels. This may allow for
some sleet across southern nh for a time Friday night which
would also limit accums. Therefore we are more conservative in
our snowfall accums than what the euro has.

The upshot is that enough confidence exists in a heavy snowfall
event that a winter storm watch be issued for central and
southern nh at this time. Will hold off on maine at this time as
this would be more of a Friday night - Saturday event there.

However, the snowfall may indeed be significant over a good
portion of southern/central me as well; we just have a little
more time to look at the uncertainties there.

Snowfall consistency should be heavy and wet - especially across
southern nh... At least for several hours Friday into Friday
evening. This may lead to power outages as many late-season
snowfalls do. Otherwise, winds shouldn't be too much of an issue
with this one, but will keep an eye on trends.

In a nutshell - confidence is increasing in a significant winter
storm for a good portion of the forecast area - especially
central and southern zones. However, several uncertainties
remain as outlined above.

The storm pulls out by later Saturday. Thereafter, there is the
potential for something else around Tuesday, but that may remain
well south of us.

Aviation /22z Wednesday through Monday/
Short term... Expect ceilings above 3000 feet through the
remainder of the evening with clouds gradually breaking up to
the south and east of the mountains. Winds should diminish this
evening and only come back at about half strength tomorrow as
high pressure builds in.

Long term... We expect ifr conditions to develop in snow and rain
on Friday, first in the morning across southwest nh then
spreading eastward through the midday hours. Ifr or lower Friday
evening through Saturday morning in potentially heavy snow.

Improvement is foreseen Saturday late afternoon through Monday.

Marine
Short term... Offshore northwesterly winds will gust to 25 or 30
kt tonight into early Thursday. Should see diminishing winds
Thursday afternoon into Friday morning as high pressure moves
through. Wave heights will be highest further from shore where
the fetch will be enough to possibly generate some 5 ft waves.

Long term... SCA conditions likely Friday night through Saturday
night with coastal low pressure. Gales possible for a time
Friday night and Saturday.

Tides/coastal flooding
A very high astronomical tide will occur early Friday morning
with 11.1' expected in portland at around 06z. Onshore winds and
seas will just be beginning to develop at this time. Northeast
flow will be more pronounced during the Saturday afternoon high
tide which is lower at 10.3'. Expect about a 0.5 to 1.0 storm
surge at that time which would bring the storm tide to around
11.0 feet or so. With waves running 5 feet or so at the time,
splash-over nomograms suggest to only expect little in the way
of issues along the coastline.

Gyx watches/warnings/advisories
Me... None.

Nh... Winter storm watch from Friday morning through Saturday
afternoon for nhz003>013-015.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Thursday for anz150>154.

Near term... Hanes
short term... Ekster
long term... Kimble


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 7 mi61 min WNW 7 41°F 25°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 8 mi49 min NNW 9.9 G 16 41°F 39°F1017.7 hPa
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 13 mi117 min NNW 18 G 19 41°F 39°F3 ft1016.7 hPa
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 19 mi71 min NW 16 G 19 41°F 38°F3 ft1016.5 hPa (+0.9)27°F
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 22 mi49 min 43°F 37°F1017 hPa
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 30 mi76 min NW 6 44°F 1018 hPa26°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 30 mi61 min NNW 13 G 14 41°F 1017.3 hPa (+1.4)26°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 42 mi25 min 40°F4 ft

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sanford, Sanford Regional Airport, ME14 mi65 minNNW 710.00 miOvercast40°F25°F55%1018.8 hPa
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME21 mi70 minNNW 15 G 2310.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F24°F47%1017 hPa

Wind History from SFM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3NE3NE4N3CalmN3N3N5N6N6N5N4N5N6N7N73NW10N6N9N8N11
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1 day agoN8N9--N8N9N6W3N4N3N6N5CalmNE5NE3CalmCalmCalmSE3NE34CalmNE5S3S3
2 days agoS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3E4E4E4E6NE6E7NE5E7NE9NE9NE11NE9N10

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Porpoise, Maine
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Cape Porpoise
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:32 AM EDT     10.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:46 AM EDT     -1.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:57 PM EDT     10.23 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:06 PM EDT     -1.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.110.18.96.63.70.9-0.8-1.2-0.224.97.79.610.29.57.74.92.1-0.1-1-0.41.44.27.1

Tide / Current Tables for Wood Island Harbor, Maine
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Wood Island Harbor
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:22 AM EDT     10.37 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:28 AM EDT     -1.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:47 PM EDT     10.33 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:48 PM EDT     -1.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.310.18.66.130.4-1.1-1.10.32.75.68.39.910.39.47.24.31.4-0.5-1-02.14.97.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.