Monday, January21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hamlin, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 5:09PM Monday January 21, 2019 12:56 PM EST (17:56 UTC) Moonrise 5:55PMMoonset 8:01AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 1246 Pm Est Mon Jan 21 2019
.heavy freezing spray warning in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Freezing spray. Scattered flurries. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds to 30 knots becoming west and diminishing to 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny in the morning, then becoming cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow in the evening, then snow and sleet overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Rain during the day, then rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
LOZ042 Expires:201901212230;;707300 FZUS51 KBUF 211746 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1246 PM EST Mon Jan 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-212230-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamlin CDP, NY
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location: 43.37, -78.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 211453
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
953 am est Mon jan 21 2019

Synopsis
A northwesterly flow of bitterly cold air will result in dangerously
low wind chill values today along with another very cold night
tonight. The arctic airmass will finally move out of the area on
Tuesday. This will be followed by an area of surface low
pressure which will track to our north on Wednesday. This will
result in a short period of above normal temperatures along with
some mixed precipitation mid-week.

Near term through tonight
Bitterly cold conditions will prevail through tonight.

Temperatures are crawling to the zero degree mark over the lower
terrain while still remaining below zero over higher terrain.

Expect a meager increase in temperatures today but with wind
chills still well below zero for continued wind chill warnings
and advisories.

Meanwhile, lake effect snow continues southeast of lake
ontario and to a lesser extent lake erie. These extend roughly
15 miles inland from the lakes. Much of this is inconsequential
in terms of amounts, but the cold airmass is making and meager
lift off the lakes is forming tiny flakes which are blowing
around together with the fresh snowpack already in place. This
has resulted in numerous accidents on both primary and secondary
roadways south of lake ontario. With this in mind, will keep a
winter weather advisory in place due to the poor conditions
remaining through this afternoon.

Surface high pressure centered across ohio this evening will build
eastward across our region tonight. Winds will maintain longest east
of lake ontario, where wind chill headlines may have to be extended.

Wind chills aside, it will be another very cold night. Although
temperatures aloft will be considerably higher, the surface
high will provide conditions favorable for radiational cooling.

Temperatures will again fall below zero in most locations,
except along the immediate lakeshores. Lows should run 10 to 20
below across the north country, with even colder readings
possibly in some spots. Otherwise, leftover lake snow showers
southeast of lake ontario should taper off to flurries while the
remainder will experience mainly clear skies.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
Tuesday will start very cold with a +2 sd surface high pressure
centered over the region. This surface high will slide to the mid-
atlantic coastline through the day and a southerly flow will
commence a moderating temperature trend.

Tuesday night surface low pressure in the base of a mid level trough
will advance from the midwest to the central great lakes. A strong
llj will develop ahead of this low pressure, and this jet will aid
in rising temperatures through the night and bringing above freezing
temperatures to the region late Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

Precipitation wise, an initial broken area of light snow is possible
late Tuesday night on the leading edge of the llj. The precipitation
is then expected to become more widespread towards daybreak across
far wny and the saint lawrence valley as moisture deepens and the
surface low draws closer to our region. This precipitation will then
spread over the genesee valley and finger lakes region Wednesday.

This LLJ will bulge a layer of much warmer air aloft across wny (850
hpa +2 to +5c) while surface temperatures around freezing lag
behind. A wintry mix is expected, with snow transitioning to
sleet freezing rain as we warm aloft, and then plain rain briefly
spreading across wny as surface temperatures warm into the upper 30s
to lower 40s. Cooler air to the north may linger the precipitation
as all snow across the north country. Here there is potential for 2
to 4 inches of snow accumulation by Wednesday evening.

There is still uncertainty as to how fast and how much we warm
aloft... But for now will mention the risk of freezing rain in the
hwo for wny. Of note, the recent extreme cold spell and prospects of
untreated roads may elevate the freezing rain potential... With
freezing rain on frozen ground surfaces that will lag behind in
warming.

By Wednesday night the surface low cutting to the north of lake
ontario will push a cold front across our region, changing the plain
rain back to all snow. This front will slowly move across our region
as a wave of low pressure will likely form on the front in the
south. As this wave rides northward, precipitation associated with
it may brush by our eastern zones.

Snow accumulation behind the front will be little to none for the
lower terrain, however higher terrain to the east of both lakes may
receive a few inches owing to lake enhancement and upslope
effects.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
The pattern will turn much more wintry again for the end of the week
and next weekend after our brief warm-up on Wednesday. The +pna
pattern will re-amplify significantly by next weekend across the
north american continent, with a deep trough carving out in the
east. This will push temperatures to well below average again. This
cold pattern will have staying power, with long range outlooks and
ensembles suggesting it lasting through the end of the month and
beyond.

Looking at the details, on Thursday a complex frontal zone will
advance to the east coast. A wave of low pressure will be running
northeast along the boundary, and associated ascent from this wave
and the approaching mid level shortwave will likely allow
precipitation to linger on the cold side of the boundary. By
Thursday morning all areas should be back to snow, with some minor
accumulations possible. The synoptic snow will taper off from west
to east through the day, with some minor lake effect snow showers
possible later Thursday afternoon and Thursday night southeast of
the lakes as colder air aloft arrives. High temperatures Thursday
will be in the lower 30s in most locations, and lows Thursday night
will be in the upper teens to lower 20s.

Late Thursday night and Friday a strong mid level trough and
associated surface low cold front will cross the region, marking the
leading edge of the return to much colder temperatures. This system
will bring a chance of snow showers areawide, with potential for
lake enhancement east of the lakes.

The cold becomes well established by the weekend. Model guidance
begins to diverge with the handling of clipper shortwaves moving
through the mean longwave trough, but in a general sense one or two
weak systems will continue to support light snow chances through the
weekend. There may also be lake effect potential next weekend,
although given the model differences with the handling of the
clipper systems there is a good deal of uncertainty with respect to
placement and strength.

High temperatures by the weekend will be back into the teens in most
locations, with lows in the single digits, and below zero east of
lake ontario.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
A northwesterly flow of bitterly cold air will continue to
generate numerous bands of light lake effect snow southeast of
lake erie and lake ontario into this afternoon. Although snow
accumulation will be light, very small snowflakes will be
effective in lowering visibility. Conditions will vary anywhere
from MVFR to ifr in snow showers during this time. The most
persistent snows will be at kiag kroc kjhw.

Conditions will improve late this afternoon as drier air moves
in and winds diminish. MVFR CIGS will gradually dissipate with
mainlyVFR conditions expected by this evening. High pressure
will build across the area late tonight withVFR flight
conditions.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... MVFR ifr in snow
changing to mainly rain.

Thursday...VFR to MVFR with scattered snow showers.

Friday...VFR to MVFR in scattered to numerous snow showers...

with ifr possible in more numerous snow showers east of the
lakes.

Marine
A relatively tight surface pressure gradient will remain in place
over the lower great lakes through this evening. Winds will diminish
from west to east starting this afternoon as high pressure builds in
from ohio. This will keep small craft advisory conditions in place
throughout the lower great lakes, with enough wave action to
continue to support the heavy freezing spray warning for lake
ontario.

The area of high pressure will drift across the lower great lakes
tonight. This will allow winds, waves, and any lingering freezing
spray to diminish. Light winds will then gradually freshen over the
lakes during the day Tuesday, as the large surface high will move
east into new england.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Wind chill warning until 7 pm est this evening for nyz006>008-
012>014-019>021-085.

Winter weather advisory until 5 pm est this afternoon for
nyz001>006.

Wind chill advisory until 7 pm est this evening for nyz001>005-
010-011.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for lez040-
041.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon
for loz030.

Heavy freezing spray warning until 6 pm est this evening
for loz042>045-062>065.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Tuesday for loz042>044.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for
loz045.

Synopsis... Apffel zaff
near term... Apffel zaff
short term... Thomas
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Apffel zaff
marine... Apffel zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 23 mi44 min 6°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi56 min NW 20 G 25 6°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 37 mi56 min Calm G 0 7°F 1031.8 hPa (+2.3)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NW17
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G27
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NW16
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G27
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G27
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E14
G17
NE11
G17
NE12
G18
NE10
G18
NE14
G24
NE11
G21
NE9
G18
NE14
G22
NE15
G22
N16
G21
N15
G24
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G20
NE17
G24
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N15
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G19
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G16
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W10
W12
W8
W12
G16
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G20
W12
G16
W13
G16
W15
G20
NW9
G13
W8
W5
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NW6
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N5
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G10
N11
G15
NE11
G14
NE7
G12
NE12
G16
NE9
G16
NE11
G16
E9
G13
NE10
G14

Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.