Friday, November17, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Hamlin, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:45PM Friday November 17, 2017 7:43 PM EST (00:43 UTC) Moonrise 6:00AMMoonset 4:46PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 945 Am Est Fri Nov 17 2017
.gale watch in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon...
Rest of today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest and increasing to 35 knot gales. Rain. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 8 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Sunday..Northwest gales to 35 knots becoming west and diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. Rain and snow showers likely during the day, then lake effect snow showers likely Sunday night. Waves 9 to 12 feet subsiding to 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers Tuesday night. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
LOZ042 Expires:201711172215;;546200 FZUS51 KBUF 171445 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 945 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-172215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamlin CDP, NY
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location: 43.37, -78.03     debug

Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 172354
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
654 pm est Fri nov 17 2017

High pressure shifting across our region will continue to provide a
brief return of fair weather into tonight. Saturday, a strong
storm system will track across the region with a round of
widespread rain and gusty winds. This will be followed Sunday by
colder temperatures and accumulating lake snows southeast of
the lakes.

Near term through Saturday
High pressure will slide to our east while the an area of low
pressure begins to strengthen while tracking to near saint louis. A
warm front ahead of this storm will shift into the ohio valley. Much
of our area can expect fair dry weather to prevail for most of the
overnight although under widespread mid and high cloud cover ahead
of this system. Late tonight, moisture transport and lift brought on
by a low level jet oriented with the warm front will bring rain into
far western new york between 4am and 6am. Expect temps to lower
this evening before southerly flow yields steadily rising temps
for the balance of the night. Across far western new york, this
will result in evening lows in the lower to mid 30s giving way
to readings in the upper 30s to lower 40s by daybreak, while
further east evening lows in the 20s will give way to temps in
the 30s by the start of Saturday morning.

Expect that surface temps will be above freezing for nearly all
locations before the rain arrives late tonight into early Saturday
morning. There is just a slight low chance that across the interior
north country, away from lake ontario, temps may still be at or just
below freezing when the leading edge of the rain arrives. This has
led to a chance of freezing rain possible for an hour or two.

Confidence remains below 50% however do to slight differences in
model timing for the onset of rain. An hour faster would lead to a
higher probability for some limited freezing rain, while an hour
slower would yield just plain rain.

Saturday, model consensus tracks the feature surface low across
illinois indiana to near or just north of lake erie while deepening
to the vicinity of 990mb. Strengthening southerly flow ahead of this
will promote rising surface temperatures and widespread rain
spreading from western into central new york. 850mb temps increasing
to between +3c (north country) and +8c (western sotier) would
normally support high temps pushing into the 60s but with widespread
rain, expect that evaporational cooling will only support a high of
low 50s in wny and mid 40s in the north country. Pwats of between
0.75 and 1 inch is a slight positive anomaly for this time of year
with model consensus QPF yielding a healthy 0.75-1 inch for wny with
0.25 to 0.5 inch across cny through 7pm Saturday. Rainfall will
probably come in several waves, with the first arriving in the
am, possibly followed be a break for a few or several hours.

Heavier periods of rain will arrive later Saturday afternoon in
the western southern tier where the low level jet strengthens
ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will not be gusty
through the day as warm advection keeps the higher winds aloft
from mixing down.

Short term Saturday night through Monday night
Winter headlines may be needed during this period, as a
transition to accumulating lake snows takes place southeast of
both lakes.

Deepening surface low pressure is expected to track just to the
north of the region Saturday night, which will swing a powerful
cold front through the area. Deepening cold air behind the cold
front will set the stage for some mixed lake effect precipitation
east of both lakes. There could even be a coating of wet snow
along the boston hills and chautauqua ridge and tug hill region.

Winds will ramp up within the cold air advection pattern, especially
Sunday. Momentum transfer profiles suggesting 45 to 55 mph wind
gusts at best, with the highest wind gust potential confined to the
immediate shorelines of lake erie and lake ontario.

A cold cyclonic flow of air will continue across the lower great
lakes Sunday into Monday. This will set the stage for lake
effect snows southeast of the lakes in a northwest flow regime.

Over-lake instability certainly looks outstanding with profiles
suggesting moderate to extreme instability developing with lake
induced capes over 500 j kg and inversion heights very
respectable. However, the synoptic moisture fields are far from
outstanding with omega displaced below favorable dendritic
growth zone combined with less than ideal shear profiles all
would suggest this lake effect event likely be a plowable, but
not significant snowfall from the southern tug hill over to
east of rochester off lake ontario and the chautauqua ridge and
boston hills off lake erie.

Lake effect snows will begin to diminish off of both lakes Monday
in response to a ridge of high pressure quickly building in
across the lower great lakes, which will effectively limit
synoptic moisture and lower the capping inversion. As the ridge
builds in, the steering flow will slowly pivot the weakening
snow bands northward toward buffalo and into the tug hill before
ending by Monday evening.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
A shortwave trough will dip across the eastern great lakes region
this period, with several additional shortwaves maintaining a deeper
long wave trough over the region through the holiday.

Sunshine Tuesday will fade through the day as a cold front nears the
region... With the cold front bringing a mix of rain and snow Tuesday
night, changing to all snow later Tuesday night and Wednesday as
deeper colder air (-10c 850 hpa) builds over the eastern great
lakes. This colder air will generate lake instability with details
of how much moisture and wind direction to still be resolved
relating to lake effect snow potential for Wednesday-Thursday.

Another frontal boundary will likely dip southward from canada
Friday... Maintain chances for snow, especially across lake ontario
and points eastward which at this time will be closer to the frontal

Temperatures Tuesday will be above normal... But expect at or below
normal temperatures the remainder of the forecast period.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
An elongated ridge of high pressure will slide off to our east while
the an area of low pressure tracks toward chicago and continues
organize. ExpectVFR conditions to continue for much of the night
under widespread mid and high cloud cover. Winds aloft increase
overnight out ahead of the approaching low, llws is expected
wny tafs (kbuf kiag kjhw kroc) 8-12z.

Rain is expected to reach far western new york (kbuf kiag kjhw)
by 9-10z with lowering CIGS to MVFR ifr by 12z Saturday. There
may be several waves of rain, with a few or several hours of dry
weather in between, but overall CIGS will continue to show a
slow lowering trend. MVFR to ifr CIGS will linger through the
day Saturday with widespread rain, steadiest and heaviest toward
the southern tier by late afternoon.


Saturday night... Rain changing to snow... And becoming windy.

Sunday-Monday... Lake effect sn, ifr SE of lakes, otherwiseVFR MVFR.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR.

Wednesday... Rain and snow showers with a chance of MVFR ifr.

High pressure over lake ontario will continue a short period of sub-
advisory-level conditions this afternoon into tonight.

As we move on into the weekend, a strengthening storm system will
track northeast across the great lakes. This may bring a period of
gale force winds to lakes erie and ontario Saturday night and Sunday
behind a cold front with gale watches in effect.

Tides coastal flooding
Developing very strong onshore winds will build significant wave
action from late Saturday night into Sunday night along the
lake ontario shoreline. The combination of already higher lake
levels and continued wave action will result in increased
shoreline erosion, especially where the lakeshore is already
unstable from erosion earlier in the year.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood watch from late Saturday night through late
Sunday night for nyz001>007.

Marine... Gale watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for

Gale watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
afternoon for loz042>045-062>065.

Synopsis... Smith
near term... Smith zaff
short term... Tma
long term... Thomas
aviation... Smith zaff
marine... Smith
tides coastal flooding... Tma

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi44 min SE 6 G 8 36°F 1020.3 hPa (-2.4)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 37 mi44 min E 6 G 7 35°F 1019.3 hPa (-2.4)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 37 mi54 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 36°F 48°F1 ft1019.9 hPa (-1.8)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.