Monday, July24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hamlin, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 8:41PM Monday July 24, 2017 4:50 PM EDT (20:50 UTC) Moonrise 6:17AMMoonset 8:39PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 440 Am Edt Mon Jul 24 2017
Today..West winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming southwest. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers Wednesday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Showers and Thunderstorms likely during the day...then a chance of showers Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ042 Expires:201707241500;;746574 FZUS51 KBUF 240840 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 440 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-241500-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamlin CDP, NY
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location: 43.37, -78.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 241852
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
252 pm edt Mon jul 24 2017

Synopsis
An area of low pressure over the eastern waters of lake ontario will
maintain showers and scattered thunderstorms across the region
through tonight. This feature will fade to the jersey shore late
tonight and allow for an area of high pressure to drift towards the
eastern great lakes tomorrow with fair weather that should last
through Wednesday night. Clouds will hang around through much of the
day tomorrow, before plenty of sunshine basks the region on
Wednesday.

Near term through Tuesday
Surface analysis this afternoon places an area of low pressure over
the eastern waters of lake ontario. Aloft a well defined shortwave
drifts southeastward across ontario canada towards western lake
ontario.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are found across the region this
afternoon, with this activity continuing through the evening hours.

Instability around 1000 j kg and lift ahead of the main shortwave
will continue chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
overnight hours... With thunder becoming less likely past dark. A
southwest wind across lake erie, and a northwest wind across the
niagara peninsula may bring a few convergent showers and
thunderstorms north of buffalo and towards batavia this evening.

Wind shear is becoming weaker through the afternoon and evening
hours as the upper level low reaches the eastern great lakes region
and this should diminish further an already low severe threat across
the region.

Any linger showers will end around dawn across our eastern zones as
the surface low fades to the southern mid-atlantic coastline.

Surface high pressure will push towards the region tomorrow, though
moisture trapped beneath a strengthening inversion, coupled with a
light northerly flow will bring an abundance of clouds
tomorrow... That will likely hang tough through the day. Highs
tomorrow will run a few degrees below normal, owing to the cyclonic
flow aloft and abundance of low clouds. Several regions will only
warm into the upper 60s.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday night
Expect dry and quiet weather Tuesday night through Wednesday as
surface high pressure and low amplitude mid-level ridging shifts
across western and central new york. Added some southern tier river
valley fog Tuesday night with the high cresting overhead. Expect
partly to mostly sunny skies on Wednesday. Expecting a cool night
Tuesday night with lows in the mid 50s inland to around 60 at the
lakeshores. Wednesday, southerly flow develops helping to boost
temperatures back to late july levels with highs forecast in the
upper 70s to low 80s except low 70s across the tug hill.

Most of Wednesday night should still remain dry ahead of an
approaching cold front. Have gone with a low chance of some showers
across the niagara peninsula and slv Thursday morning either from a
narrow leading warm sector or well ahead of the cold front.

Otherwise, mugginess will return overnight as the lower great lakes
comes under strengthening warm and moist southerly flow. Temps may
actually rise late in the night. Expect lows to bottom out only in
the mid to upper 60s with 70 possible for lows near the lakeshores.

The next likely period of showers and thunderstorms will then arrive
Thursday with the passage of a cold front. There remains some timing
differences among the 12z guidance with some showing a morning
frontal passage and others later in the afternoon. This leaves
uncertainly in more exact timing so have held on to continuity which
better aligns with the 12z ECMWF and brings the highers pops across
our region in the afternoon hours. Instability at this range looks
weak but with better insolation ahead of the front we could be
looking at a risk for some strong severe storms as 0-6km shear is
forecast to run about 40kts. SPC has not included a severe risk area
at this time. 850mb temps are forecast to rise to +13c to +14c which
will translate into highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Combined with
dewpoints rising to the mid upper 60s will make for a very
uncomfortable mid summer day across the region.

Showers and thunderstorms will taper off from northwest to southeast
with the passage of the front Thursday night. Northerly flow behind
the front will likely hold in cloudiness and possibly a few
scattered showers in wrap around moisture ahead of the trailing mid-
level trough axis. Dewpoints holding in the 60s will keep mild
overnight temps only bottoming out in the low 60s.

Long term Friday through Monday
Friday into the weekend high pressure builds into the lower great
lakes with dry weather and temperatures right near climo for this
time of year(u70s l80s).

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
For the 18z tafs an area of low pressure will maintain scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms across the region. Flight conditions
will generally remainVFR, though there are some areas of MVFR
ceilings around... That could pass across the airfields.

Tonight the surface low will fade to the se, and northwesterly to
northerly winds behind the feature will begin to bring a lowering to
the clouds tonight. Expect ifr or lower CIGS across kjhw, and
kart... While increasing moisture off lake ontario may bring some ifr
ceilings to TAF sites south of lake ontario late tonight and early
tomorrow morning. These poor flight conditions will slowly improve
tomorrow, though the northerly flow may linger MVFR ceilings south
of lake ontario into the early afternoon hours.

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon... Improving back toVFR.

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday... MVFRVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely.

Friday and Saturday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
An area of low pressure over the eastern waters of lake ontario will
fade to the jersey shoreline tonight. Southwesterly winds (small
craft advisory- lake erie) this afternoon will become northwesterly
to northerly tomorrow (small craft advisories south shoreline of
lake ontario).

Tonight as cooler air build across lake erie under the upper level
low, and lake equilibrium levels rising above 25k feet an isolated
waterspout will be possible on lake erie.

The northerly winds tomorrow will diminish through the day as
surface high pressure nears the eastern great lakes... With the
feature bringing an end to the higher winds and waves tomorrow on
lake ontario.

Tides coastal flooding
A period of stronger northerly winds is expected to set up across
lake ontario late tonight and Tuesday morning as low pressure departs
off to our southeast. With it looking increasingly likely that
wave action will increase enough to raise the risk of additional
erosion and flooding along much of the south shore of the
lake... A lakeshore flood warning has been issued for the niagara
to wayne county corridor of lake ontario.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood warning from 7 am to 4 pm edt Tuesday for
nyz001>004.

Beach hazards statement until 11 pm edt this evening for
nyz019.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lez040-
041.

Small craft advisory from 5 am to 8 pm edt Tuesday
for loz042-043.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Thomas
short term... Smith
long term... Ar
aviation... Thomas
marine... Thomas
tides coastal flooding... Jjr thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 23 mi51 min 72°F 1009 hPa (+1.5)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi51 min NW 15 G 17 71°F 1009.8 hPa (+1.3)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 37 mi51 min W 7 G 8 66°F 1009.8 hPa (+1.0)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 37 mi61 min N 14 G 16 66°F 72°F1 ft1008.3 hPa (+1.2)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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SW10
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NE9
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G8
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SE4
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SW13
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NW8
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G16
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G18
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G23
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G21
1 day
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NE7
NE5
G9
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G7
NE4
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E6
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NE5
G10
N7
G11
E7
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E7
G10
NE3
G6
NE6
G12
E7
G10
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E7
G11
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G12
E5
G8
SE4
G7
SW2
W5
SW8
SW11
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G13
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SW9
W6
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G11
W9
W5
W3
NW3
N4
G7
N3
SE2
S4
SW3
N1
SE4
SE3
S5
E3
SE2
S1
N6
NE7
NE7
G13
NE6
G9

Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.