Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hilton, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 7:25PM Friday March 22, 2019 9:03 AM EDT (13:03 UTC) Moonrise 8:32PMMoonset 7:25AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 418 Am Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 11 am edt this morning through Sunday morning...
Today..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain and snow showers likely this morning, then more widespread rain and snow this afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Snow in the evening, then snow showers likely overnight. Waves 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds to 30 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 6 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Saturday night..West winds diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. Clear. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north. A chance of snow and rain showers Sunday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet . Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 37 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201903221530;;738319 FZUS51 KBUF 220818 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 418 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-221530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hilton, NY
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location: 43.41, -77.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 221048
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
648 am edt Fri mar 22 2019

Synopsis
An intensifying storm system near new york city will make its way
to the coast of maine today... Then to the canadian maritimes
tonight. Colder air pouring into our region on its backside will
force a mixture of rain and snow to change over to all snow today...

with the snow then tapering off from west to east tonight and early
Saturday morning as the low pulls further away from our region.

Snowfall amounts from this system will be highly variable... With
the greatest amounts found across the higher terrain and east of
lake ontario. High pressure will then build across our region over
the weekend and provide us with fair dry weather... Along with a
return to much milder conditions by Sunday.

Near term through tonight
During the course of today rapidly strengthening low pressure
near new york city will track northeastward to the maine coastline...

while its parent mid-level closed low undergoes a fujiwara-type
interaction with a second and stronger mid-level trough digging
southeastward into our region from the upper great lakes. The
combined effects of these two systems will result in deepening
moisture across our region... Along with slow but steady cooling
of our airmass that will result in 850 mb temperatures lowering
to between -6c and -10c by early this evening. Coupled with
increasing upsloping driven by a strengthening northwesterly low
level flow... This will result in increasingly widespread precip
redeveloping from west to east across areas south of lake ontario
today... With fairly steady precipitation otherwise continuing
east of lake ontario... Which will lie closest to the deepening
coastal low.

With only gradual cooling taking place aloft and boundary layer
temperatures remaining rather marginal for rain vs. Snow through
early to mid afternoon... Precipitation type through that time
should be highly elevation dependent... Varying from mostly rain
across the lowest elevations to snow across the higher terrain
east of both lakes... And a general mix of rain wet snow found in
between. Given both this and the high late march Sun angle... Expect
that the bulk of any snowfall accumulations through today will
mostly remain confined to the higher terrain... With a general
1-2" falling across the higher elevations east of lake erie...

and 2-4" possible across the tug hill and western adirondack
foothills east of lake ontario. Elsewhere... Any accumulations
should be on the order of an inch or less... And mainly on
grassy and elevated surfaces at that.

Later this afternoon and this evening continued cooling (driven
both by cold air advection and precipitation) will combine with
diminishing insolation to force a changeover to all snow areawide.

This will result in a period of accumulating snow for all areas
during this time frame... Which will feature the best overall snowfall
rates accums from this event... Along with some areas of blowing
snow given increasingly brisk northwesterly winds. As was the case
during the day... Upsloping and contributions of lake moisture will
help to maximize snowfall accums across the higher terrain east
and southeast of the lakes. East of lake erie another general
inch or two of fresh accumulation will be likely... While southeast
and east of lake ontario a more prolonged period of more favorable
moisture and lift should allow for additional accumulations of
4 to 7 inches.

Later this evening and overnight the snow will then steadily wind
down from southwest to northeast as the low pulls further away
and into the canadian maritimes... And the supporting large-scale
lift and deeper moisture gets stripped away in a similar fashion.

Compared to previous guidance... The 00z 22 model suite is a bit
faster with this trend... Which should result in only some scattered
light snow showers leftover across the north country by sunrise
of Saturday morning.

Given all of the above... Have made no changes to our existing winter
weather headlines. Winter storm warnings remain in effect for the
eastern lake ontario region... Where a general 6-12" of snow is
expected across the higher terrain of the tug hill and western
adirondack foothills... And winter weather advisories remain in
effect for wayne and northern cayuga counties... Where 4-6" of
accumulation is expected. These amounts are similar to... But also
slightly lower than our previous continuity due to the somewhat
quicker departure of the snow tonight... And the fact that not much
snow may fall across the advisory area until very late today... Which
should help to cut back on accumulations at least somewhat there.

With respect to temperatures... Highs today should range from the
lower to mid 30s across the higher terrain to the mid and upper
30s elsewhere... Before cold advection and nocturnal cooling sends
readings down into the upper teens to mid 20s tonight. Coupled
with brisk northwesterly winds... This will result in wind chills
dipping to the 5 to 15 above zero range tonight... And will make
it feel like midwinter all over again.

Short term Saturday through Monday night
The roller coaster ride of temperatures that is so common this time
of year will continue through this forecast period... As mercury
readings that will climb into the 50s for most areas on Sunday will
be sandwiched between two days with highs only in the mid to upper
30s. Welcome to early spring in western and north central new york.

As we open this time frame on Saturday... A storm system will be
exiting across the canadian maritimes. While there may be some
leftover snow showers early in the morning across the north
country... Saturday will feature a brisk wind with high pressure over
the ohio valley offering the return to full sunshine. This should
help to take some of the bite out of what would otherwise be a
chilly mid march day... As h85 temps of -8c will prevent readings
from climbing out of the 30s. These temperatures will be nearly 10
degrees below normal... But then again at this time of year... The
'normal' is just an average of these large temperature swings.

The area of high pressure will slide by to our south Saturday night.

This will support clear skies... That while initially will allow for
excellent star gazing... Will give way to the waning full moon from
earlier in the week. In any case... Temperatures will settle into the
20s away from the lakes... With some teens not out of the question in
the colder valleys of the southern tier and in the foothills of the
'dacks east of the black river valley.

Sunday should then be the nicest day of the weekend... As warm
advection ahead of an approaching cold front will push h85 temps to
within a degree or so of zero c. Given the convergent mid level flow
and well mixed environment below h85... The vast majority of western
new york should easily climb into the low to mid 50s... And this
despite an increase in mid level clouds after lunchtime. A deep
southwest flow will prevent the buffalo metro area from escaping the
40s though... With similarly cool conditions anticipated across the
north country (including the thousand islands region).

A cold front north of lake ontario Sunday evening will steadily
march southward across our forecast area during the course of Sunday
night. This will generate some mixed rain and snow showers that will
transition to just snow as the cold air deepens in the wake of the
anabatic style front. Have raised pops a bit... Particularly across
the southern tier where stronger lift is being suggested by the
possibility of a coupled h25 jet. Accumulations should be under an
inch in most areas... With slightly higher amounts possible across
the elevated terrain of the southern tier.

On Monday... An expansive area of arctic high pressure over the
canadian prairies will drift to the upper mississippi valley. This
will shove the aforementioned cold frontal boundary southward to the
carolinas. As a result... Any residual light snow showers in the
morning (mainly the southern tier) will give way to increasing
amounts of midday and afternoon sunshine. It will be colder again
though... As steady cold advection through the day holding afternoon
highs in the 30s. The exception may be close to the pennsylvania
border where some 40 degree readings will be possible.

The large surface high will build across all of the great lakes
region Monday night. While it will be cold enough aloft to support
some instability over the lakes... The synoptic environment will be
very dry and there should be too much shear for any real lake
response. This will leave us with fair cold weather with mins in the
teens and low 20s.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday
The weather cannot get much more uneventful than what we will
experience during this period... But then again... For this time of
year we should be thankful for the dull and boring. It could be a
lot worse. That being said... There is high confidence that we will
have precipitation free weather through this three day period with
notable day to day warming. While temperatures will average nearly
10 degrees below normal on Tuesday... We will warm to roughly 10
degrees above normal for Thursday.

The reason for the respite in active weather will be progressive
ridge that move from the rockies on Tuesday to the east coast on
Thursday. In fact... Many of the medium range ensembles of both the
gfs (ie gefs) and ECMWF suggest that this pattern will further
evolve into a rex block along the east coast. This would establish a
deepening southerly flow over the lower great lakes (just outside of
this seven day forecast) that could support temperatures in the 60s
and even the lower 70s by Saturday. While those temperatures can be
debated... It is highly likely that we will at least experience above
normal mercury readings for both Friday and Saturday.

Interestingly... This scenario is not supported by the 6 to 10 day
temperature outlook from the climate prediction center. Stay tuned.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
Low pressure near new york city will rapidly intensify while making
its way northeastward to the coast of maine today. Plentiful low
level moisture and upsloping on the backside of this system will
result in widespread ifr MVFR ceilings from today into this evening.

At the same time... Colder air will overspread our region and force
a mix of rain and snow to change over to all snow... With this change
first taking place across the higher terrain... Then spreading to
the lower elevations. This will result in visibilities also lowering
to the ifr MVFR ranges... With ifr more prevalent where the snow is
steadier.

Tonight the low will push further northeastward to the canadian
maritimes. Diminishing moisture and cyclonic flow on its backside
will result in the snow diminishing from southwest to northeast...

with low level moisture attendant lower clouds then subsequently
breaking up in a similar fashion. This will result in flight
conditions improving to theVFR range south of lake ontario...

and toVFR MVFR across the north country.

Outlook...

Saturday... Lingering scattered snow showers MVFR east of lake
ontario ending early... OtherwiseVFR.

Sunday...VFR.

Sunday night and Monday...VFR MVFR with a chance of rain and
snow showers.

Tuesday...VFR.

Marine
Intensifying low pressure near new york city will track northeast
to the maine coastline today... Then to the canadian maritimes
tonight. In its wake... Freshening westerlies and northwesterlies
will bring fairly widespread advisory-worthy winds and waves to the
lower lakes region today through Saturday night... For which small
craft advisories remain in effect as outlined below.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter storm warning from 5 pm this afternoon to noon edt
Saturday for nyz006-007.

Winter weather advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 8 am edt
Saturday for nyz004-005.

Winter storm warning until noon edt Saturday for nyz008.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 5 am edt
Saturday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 5 am
edt Saturday for loz030.

Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 am edt
Sunday for loz043-044.

Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 11 pm edt
Saturday for loz042.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 am edt
Sunday for loz045.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Jjr
short term... Rsh
long term... Rsh
aviation... Jjr
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 10 mi51 min 38°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 11 mi63 min WNW 14 G 16 38°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 56 mi63 min W 12 G 17 37°F 1004.7 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY20 mi69 minNW 109.00 miOvercast38°F32°F79%1003.4 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11S10S9S5S6SE5CalmSE9S8S8S7--N5NE3W3W3W6NW6NW8NW10
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1 day agoSW11S10S9S9S8SW5SW8
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2 days agoSW4W6SW83SW8W11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.