Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hilton, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 6:21PM Thursday October 19, 2017 5:40 PM EDT (21:40 UTC) Moonrise 6:05AMMoonset 5:43PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 431 Pm Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to less than 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day, then showers likely Monday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 59 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201710200330;;104139 FZUS51 KBUF 192031 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 431 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-200330-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hilton, NY
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location: 43.41, -77.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 192134
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
534 pm edt Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will remain anchored along the mid-atlantic coastline
through the upcoming weekend with fair weather and above normal
temperatures. The pattern will become more unsettled and cooler
next week.

Near term through Friday
A dry cold front is in the process of crossing the area late this
afternoon with just a modest increase in clouds, mainly east of lake
ontario. This front will move southeast across the area and exit by
late evening, taking most of the limited cloud cover with it. This
will leave mainly clear skies overnight.

Cooler air will build in behind the front with lows dropping into
the 40s, perhaps a few locales in upper 30s across the southern tier
and north country. Dry air and lingering graident flow will limit
fog development to only the deepest southern tier valleys late
tonight.

Friday, another fair weather dry with high pressure remaining
dominant. Sunshine will offset weak cold air advection with
most high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
Friday night and Saturday a large and expansive area of high
pressure will remain over the east coast, with abundant sunshine
and above normal temperatures. Highs will be some 15- 20
degrees above normal Saturday as +12 to +14c 850 hpa
temperatures reach our region with the surface high slightly
displaced to the east. Dry ground and a light southerly wind
should push temperatures into the 70s, with an 80f reading not
out of the question somewhere across the lake plain genesee
valley... Which is typically our warmest area. Record highs may
be just out of reach, which include for this date: buffalo
81f 1894, rochester 80f 2007 and watertown 78f 1979.

Dewpoints will begin to slowly rise Friday night and into the
weekend... Such that valley fog at night will be possible through
southwest nys.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
Another fine day is on tap for Sunday as a seasonably strong 500mb
ridge over the east coast with surface high pressure over the
western atlantic will bring plenty of sunshine across western and
north central new york. A light southerly flow will help
temperatures run 15 to 20 degrees above normal with highs forecast
to climb into the low to mid 70s. Record highs for all three climate
sites should remain safe. Sunday night will remain mild with mainly
clear skies as high pressure will still be in control and dewpoints
run in the 50s. Expect lows to range from the low 50s well inland to
upper 50s near the lakes.

Differences in model timing of an approaching front remain for
Monday with the 1019 12z GFS continuing to shift the front over our
region during the day while the 1019 12z ec remains about 12 hours
slower holding the fronts arrival off until Monday night. Have held
onto 20 30 pops on Monday which favor the ec timing but still cover
for a possible earlier arrival with the gfs. Pops for wny then
increase to 60 70 for Monday night with high pressure still favoring
mainly dry weather across cny. With the slower arrival of the front,
temperatures will remain on the mild side Monday.

The wettest period looks to lock in on Tuesday as the frontal zone
stalls across our region and one or more waves of low pressure shift
north along the front. Have continued 60-70 pops for Tuesday as both
gfs ec models are in agreement with a surface low lifting north
across new york. The GFS shows a potentially moisture rich airmass
will move into place along the front with a connection to the gulf
of mexico which could push pwats above 1.5 inches or more. Wpc day 4-
5 QPF shows a swath of 1-1.5 inches of rain over southwestern new
york. Temperatures will run near normal (mid-upper 50s) Tuesday.

Chance pops are featured for Wednesday as the mid-level trough and
cold advection support showery weather in the wake of the front.

Below normal temps should be expected for Wednesday as 850mb temps
dip to or below zero 0 which would support temps likely struggling
to break above 50 in many locations and may support some lake
enhancement as well into Wednesday night. The coolest low temps
Wednesday night dip into the upper 30s which should still keep a
threat of any snow out of the forecast for now.

Thursday then looks to bring back some dry weather in both GFS and
ec models as western and north-central ny comes under the influence
of a narrow ridge separating a digging trough in the northern plains
and potential developing coastal storm just off the mid-atlantic
coast. Temps forecast near normal with partly sunny skies.

Aviation 22z Thursday through Tuesday
Vfr conditions will prevail through this evening as high pressure
remains anchored over the mid atlantic states, with a ridge
extending northward into the eastern great lakes. A weak and dry
cold front will move across the region this evening. Southwest winds
will gust to 30 knots across the lake plains through early evening
before quickly diminishing.

Expect moreVFR conditions tonight as an axis of high pressure
ridges back into the lower great lakes region. Dry air and
lingering graident winds will limit the potential for fog
tonight.

Outlook...

Friday through Sunday...VFR except for local ifr in river valley fog
each late night and early morning.

Monday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers.

Tuesday... MVFR ifr with showers likely.

Marine
Tight pressure gradient will remain over the eastern great lakes into
this evening. This will maintain small craft headlines for most of
the lakes with moderate to strong southwest breezes which will
shift to the west this evening. Winds will diminish on Friday as
the surface ridge axis moves back closer to area.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lez020.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Friday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Friday for
loz043-044.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Friday for loz045.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for
slz022-024.

Synopsis... Tma
near term... Hitchcock tma
short term... Thomas
long term... Smith
aviation... Hitchcock tma
marine... Tma


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 10 mi40 min 69°F 1015.1 hPa (-0.5)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 11 mi40 min WSW 20 G 28 69°F 1015.6 hPa (-1.0)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 20 mi50 min WSW 16 G 18 63°F 61°F4 ft1014.2 hPa (-0.8)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 56 mi40 min WSW 12 G 18 67°F 1016.3 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY20 mi46 minW 18 G 2710.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy71°F48°F46%1015.5 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4CalmNW3S4CalmW3SW6SW5SW12SW11SW12
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1 day agoSW11SW7SW8SW6SW5SW7SW7SW9SW8SW8SW6SW8SW6SW6SW6SW8SW9W9SW5S9SW11
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2 days agoNW7NW3CalmW3CalmSW3SW4W3SW5SW5SW6SW6SW8SW8SW8SW9SW10SW7SW12SW12W18SW20
G25
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G26

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.