Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hilton, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:45PM Saturday November 17, 2018 7:33 PM EST (00:33 UTC) Moonrise 2:21PMMoonset 12:47AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 932 Am Est Sat Nov 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 5 to 15 knots. Scattered snow showers with a chance of rain showers in the evening, then scattered snow showers overnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers Monday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 44 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201811172215;;443369 FZUS51 KBUF 171432 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 932 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-172215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hilton, NY
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location: 43.41, -77.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 172350
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
650 pm est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
A weak cold front will drop across the region this evening with some
light snow showers, but otherwise dry conditions. Weak low pressure
will pass to our south on Sunday bringing some light snow to the
southern tier. There will be some light snow showers during the
first half of next week, followed by high pressure and cold and
dry weather for thanksgiving.

Near term through Sunday
A few light snow showers and flurries are flying across our region
as a weak cold front drops across. Additional accumulations will be
minor, generally less than an inch with this front.

Drier boundary layer air will build in behind the front late this
evening and tonight. This may result in a brief clearing before mid
and high clouds spreading in advance of the next system reach the
area. Mesoscale guidance suggests a narrow band or cluster of lake
effect snow showers may briefly develop southeast of lake ontario
late tonight. Localized accumulations of an inch or two cannot be
ruled out, but the vast majority of the forecast area will be dry
from late evening on. Winds will shift to the southeast Sunday
morning so any lingering lake effect snow will move out over the
lake. Low temperatures tonight will be in the teens east of lake
ontario, and in the low to mid 20s elsewhere.

On Sunday a shortwave embedded in a vigourous upper level flow will
move across the region. There will be a sharp mid-level thermal
gradient across the area, with this shortwave resulting in a period
of warm air advection and favorable jet dynamics. Nearly all model
guidance shows measurable precipitation across southern areas, with
little if any precipitation north of i-90 from buffalo to syracuse.

However model agreement and synoptic scale lift supports categorical
pops across the western southern tier even if snow accumulation will
only be around an inch. Temperatures will remain below normal on
Sunday with highs in the lower to mid 30s.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday night
A 120kt upper level jet will be moving across the northeast while
surface low pressure tracks along a stalled front south of western
ny Sunday night. Dry westerly flow will be increasing across the
eastern great lakes and light snow will be departing the western
southern tier through Sunday evening. Cold, southwest flow will lead
to the generation of lake effect showers northeast of the lakes
Sunday evening. Due to the incoming dry airmass, snow showers will
be scattered and light. Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper
20's Sunday night.

The mean flow will slowly become westerly by Monday morning and snow
showers will move east of the lakes impacting the southtowns and
western southern tier and east of lake ontario. Synoptic moisture
will increase from the north as a shortwave trough approaches lake
ontario. This will likely keep snow showers east of lake ontario
with enhancement on the tug hill into Monday evening. With this
being said, subsidence and mid-level dry air will still keep snow
showers scattered and lackluster east of lake ontario. Snow showers
will end east of lake erie by Monday afternoon. Minor accumulations
of up to an inch are expected east of lake ontario, mainly on the
tug hill. Areas outside of the lakes will remain dry Monday.

Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 30's.

A large scale mid-level trough will remain overhead Monday night
into Tuesday night. Surface low pressure will track across the
northern great lakes reaching lake ontario by Tuesday morning. A
cold front will move across the eastern great lakes and snow showers
will track across western and north-central ny. Lake enhancement
will produce minor accumulations northeast-east of the lakes by
Tuesday afternoon. As flow becomes northwest behind the front, snow
showers will persist southeast of the lakes where minor
accumulations are possible into Tuesday night. Cold with
temperatures falling into the low 20s to teens east of lake ontario
Tuesday night.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Second clipper shortwave and associated cold front expected to
cross the area Wednesday. At this stage, only looking at some
nuisance snow showers and limited lake effect potential. Even
though the potential for accumulating snows look limited, those
planning to travel are strongly encouraged to stay up to date
on the forecast as it doesn't take much snow to cause travel
issues.

Secondary thermal trough will filter in for Thursday on the
front side of an approaching area of high pressure and will
bring 850 mb temperatures back down below -15c, resulting in a
very chilly thanksgiving day with high temperatures capping in
the 20s and wind chills in the teens or colder at times.

The much anticipated warm-up is still on track, but a bit later
than in previous forecasts. Warmer temperatures will arrive
Friday and Saturday with most locations see highs in the mid to
upper 30s Friday, and in the 40s with 50 degrees not out of
question for Saturday. Precipitation chances will increase
Saturday as a rather deep but short-wavelength trough swings
through the great lakes.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
Flight conditions are generally MVFRVFR across the region this
evening, and these conditions will prevail through the next 12
hours. Some light snow showers and flurries will fly through the
next 6 hours, and may bring reduced visibilities briefly in an
otherwise mainlyVFR flight visibility environment.

A storm system will track by just to our south tomorrow, and this
feature will bring a brief burst of synoptic snow across southern
zones, including the kjhw terminal. Expect ifr or lower flight
conditions within snow.

Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday...VFR MVFR. Periodic snow showers.

Thursday...VFR.

Marine
Westerly winds will gradually diminish through this evening as
surface high pressure builds toward the region. Small craft
advisories will continue for the central and eastern waters of lake
ontario this evening. A few weak systems may result in a brief
increase in winds Monday through Wednesday, but for the most part
the first half of the week should be headline free. High pressure
will build across the lower great lakes Wednesday night and Thursday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am est Sunday for loz043>045.

Synopsis... Apffel
near term... Apffel thomas
short term... Hsk
long term... Tma
aviation... Thomas
marine... Apffel thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 10 mi34 min 36°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 11 mi34 min NW 19 G 23 36°F
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 20 mi44 min NW 19 G 21 37°F 46°F5 ft1024.8 hPa (+3.0)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 56 mi34 min NW 11 G 15 36°F 1027.1 hPa (+2.7)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY20 mi40 minWNW 410.00 miOvercast35°F30°F82%1026.3 hPa

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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.