Monday, June25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hilton, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:30AMSunset 8:56PM Monday June 25, 2018 3:35 AM EDT (07:35 UTC) Moonrise 5:38PMMoonset 2:56AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 130 Am Edt Mon Jun 25 2018
Overnight..North winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..West winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201806250915;;075342 FZUS51 KBUF 250530 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 130 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-250915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hilton, NY
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location: 43.41, -77.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 250544
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
144 am edt Mon jun 25 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build from the great lakes into new england
through Tuesday with dry weather. The next chance of showers
and thunderstorms will arrive Wednesday as low pressure moves
through the great lakes.

Near term through today
At 1 a.M. A secondary cold front is near the south shores of
lake ontario. Radar shows some showers with this front, mainly
east of rochester. These showers will gradually diminish in
coverage as the front slides southward overnight. There remains
a small area of partially clear skies south of this front, and
this clearing has allow some patchy fog to develop ahead of the
boundary. This fog will be rather short-lived as clouds
associated with the front drop southward and winds with the
boundary help mix out the fog. Overnight lows will range from
the mid 50s in most areas to around 50 across the north country.

Following the passage of the secondary cold front overnight, a
notable push of much drier air and strong subsidence will spread
southward across the area by mid-morning on Monday. This will
scour out lingering moisture and clouds from north to south.

This will result in mostly sunny skies with highs in the lower
to mid 70s.

Short term tonight through Wednesday night
Canadian high pressure will move across the eastern great
lakes Monday night and Tuesday. This will keep the region mostly clear
and dry with seasonable temperatures.

A closed mid-level low will enter the western great lakes region
Tuesday night which will bring an end to the seasonable weather
across western and central ny. Warm air advection, ahead of this
system will ramp up Tuesday night, as a 35-40kt LLJ at 850mb enters
western ny by Wednesday morning. Clouds will quickly increase
and thicken overnight Tuesday with showers moving into western
ny by Wednesday morning.

The closed mid-level low will move across the central great lakes by
Wednesday morning while de-intensifying and becoming an open wave.

Although weakening, this potent shortwave trough and associated
surface low will bring widespread showers and chance of
thunderstorms to the forecast area Wednesday morning through
Wednesday evening. At this time, the initial wave of showers
Wednesday morning will be driven by the llj. Although timing may
shift, most of the showers will likely stay confined to western
ny through Wednesday morning. As the surface low and associated
cold front move across mi, strong forcing from the mid-level
shortwave trough will another wave of showers and some
thunderstorms across western ny. High moisture content will lead
to heavy rain at times. High temperatures are more uncertain
Wednesday as some areas that break out will likely see
temperatures reach the mid 80s however, showers and cloud cover
will likely keep some places in the lower 80s. Will need to
monitor the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms as strong
forcing, marginal instability and an increasing wind field may
allow some storms to spin.

The cold front will move across the forecast area Wednesday night.

Showers will taper off Wednesday night as the mid-level trough axis
crosses the region around daybreak Thursday.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
Prolonged stretch of hot weather on the way starting Saturday...

the trough over the region Thursday morning will continue to shift
east through the morning on Thursday and out of the area by Thursday
night. Some showers will still be possible Thursday morning
tapering off from west to east as an area of low pressure associated
with the trough moves along the northern lake ontario shoreline and
across the saint lawrence valley.

By late Thursday night the entire area should be rain free as a
ridge starts to build into the great lakes and into wny.

Strengthening of the ridge will occur as the axis and center
crosses the ohio valley into the eastern great lakes. 500 hpa
heights approaching 596dm by Sunday evening. During this stretch of
building high pressure rain free conditions will be experienced
across most of the area through Sunday with just a slight chance for
Sunday morning across the north country.

Temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be in the low to mid 80s
across the region. Temperatures really start to warmup for
Saturday, Sunday and beyond. 850 temps over the weekend as warm as
23.5c are possible with Sunday being the warmer of the two days.

High temps on Saturday near 90 to the mid 90s, and Sunday temps warm
to mid to upper 90s for most locations away from the lakes and
higher elevations. MAX temps over the weekend will approach or
possibly break some records across wny and the north country.

Increasing dewpoints will also begin on Saturday making already warm
temperatures feel even more oppressive and result in dangerous heat
index values through the holiday weekend.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
At the start of the 06z TAF cycle, a cold front extends roughly
from buf-roc-art. The main impact of this boundary will be a few
hours of MVFR cigs. A break in the clouds has resulted in areas
of fog ahead of the front with ifr or lower conditions in fog
and low CIGS likely at jhw. This low moisture will eventually
mix out Monday morning as the front continues to push south of
the area.

After this, high pressure will build in with high confidence in
widespreadVFR conditions from 15z Monday through 06z Tuesday.

Outlook...

Monday night and Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday... Local brief MVFR to ifr showers and thunderstorms likely.

Thursday... MVFR improving toVFR with showers ending.

Friday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
A secondary cold front will push south of lake ontario overnight.

North winds will increase briefly to around 15 knots on lake
ontario for a few hours. This will produce some chop along the
south shore of the lake, but conditions are expected to remain
below small craft advisory criteria. Winds and waves will
quickly diminish Monday afternoon as high pressure builds into
the great lakes. These light winds will last through Tuesday as
high pressure drifts to new england.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Apffel
near term... Apffel
short term... Hsk
long term... Sw
aviation... Apffel
marine... Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 10 mi54 min 61°F 1016.5 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 11 mi36 min E 12 G 14 61°F 1017.3 hPa (+0.7)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 20 mi46 min NNW 9.7 G 12 60°F 59°F1 ft1016.4 hPa (+1.3)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 56 mi36 min Calm G 2.9 57°F 1018.6 hPa (+1.7)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY20 mi42 minN 510.00 miA Few Clouds59°F57°F96%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN4N3NW3NE4NE4NE5NE6E6NE6NE10NE7NE9NE7N6N5NW5NW4W4SW4NW6N10N11N5
1 day agoSE8SE9SE7SE5SE5SE7SE7S8S5S10SW7SW7CalmN9N9N8NE4NE3N3N5CalmN3NE4N4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalm4E5SE8SE7E5E7NE10NE8N5NE9NE7E8SE8E7SE7S15
G21
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SE7SE5SE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.