Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Bend, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:51PM Saturday November 17, 2018 9:31 AM PST (17:31 UTC) Moonrise 2:31PMMoonset 1:01AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 831 Am Pst Sat Nov 17 2018
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 4 pm pst this afternoon...
Today..NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 4 ft at 12 seconds.
Tonight..E wind in the late evening and overnight. Wind ne 5 to 10 kt early in the evening. Cape arago southward, S wind in the late evening and overnight. Wind waves 3 ft in the evening... Becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 6 ft at 14 seconds.
Sun..SE wind 5 to 10 kt except S 5 kt cape arago southward. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 ft at 13 seconds.
Sun night..S wind 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 ft.
Mon..SE wind 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 ft.
Mon night..SW wind 5 kt...backing to S after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 ft.
Tue..S wind 10 kt...rising to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 5 to 6 ft. NW swell 3 ft... Building to W 5 ft.
Wed..S wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft... Building to 5 ft after midnight. W swell 7 ft...building to 9 ft.
PZZ300 830 Am Pst Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Offshore high pressure and a trough of low pressure near the coast will both weaken today. Gusty north winds and choppy wind driven seas will persist until then, mostly south of cape blanco. Conditions will improve Saturday afternoon into Sunday, with relatively light south winds and seas persisting into Tuesday. A weak front will move onshore Tuesday night into Wednesday. A stronger front may move in Thursday, and heavy west swell may also develop Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Bend, OR
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location: 43.42, -124.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 171717 cca
afdmfr
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service medford or
917 am pst Sat nov 17 2018

Discussion No significant changes made this morning, except we
increased cloud cover east of the cascades this morning and
lowered temperatures due to the cooling effects of these clouds.

A stagnant air mass will get a brief improvement today in portions
of the forecast area with increasing winds east of the cascades
and in the foothills west of the cascades. This is being shown in
the air quality observations this morning. However, upper ridging
will build tomorrow and result in poor mixing again, and
pollution concerns become significant again for many areas. We
maintain the air stagnation advisory through Monday night, but
we'll likely extend portions of this through Tuesday. Mixing will
improve significantly by the middle of next week with increasing
winds and the introduction of precipitation for many areas.

Please see the previous discussion below for the major changes
expected next week, including wet conditions, lowering snow
levels, and periods of gusty winds.

Aviation For the 17 12z tafs... Along the coast north of cape
blanco, a shallow but strong layer of low level moisture has brought
vsbys to ifr with periods of lifr, and will persist until morning
before scattering. While we'll be in a larger scale drying pattern,
southeast winds expected near koth could support some fog at the
airport. Conditions will gradually improve in the umpqua basin
today. Elsewhere,VFR will continue for the TAF period, though
smoke haze will continue to be prevalent, which could cause periodic
reduced vsbys in northern california.

Marine Updated 800 am pst Saturday 17 november 2018... Offshore
high pressure and a trough of low pressure near the coast will both
weaken today. Gusty north winds and choppy wind driven seas will
persist until then, mostly south of CAPE blanco. Conditions will
improve this afternoon into Sunday, with relatively light south
winds and seas persisting into Tuesday. A weak front will move
onshore Tuesday night into Wednesday. A stronger front may move in
Thursday, and heavy west swell may also develop Thursday.

Prev discussion issued 503 am pst Sat nov 17 2018
short term... The current weather pattern will persist with
relatively little day-to-day variation in conditions through
Monday and a stagnant air mass into Tuesday. A ridge is centered
offshore and will shift inland over the western states this
weekend into Monday. Deep layer winds will begin to shift toward a
more due southerly direction on Sunday, and we expect some smoke
and haze to push into the forecast area as we move into next week.

Air quality could be diminished in siskiyou and modoc counties,
but as one moves across into oregon (especially west of the
cascades), this situation usually results in just haze aloft for
locations like medford and roseburg.

The first sign of a change will likely be the increase of high
clouds Monday night. These clouds will be in advance of an
elongated cold front. Also in advance of it will be increasing
southwest winds that are expected to increase mixing of the air
mass on Tuesday. So, that's when the air stagnation advisory
expires.

Long term... At this juncture, it's still prudent to focus on the
broad statement of a change to a wetter, windier pattern at mid-
week. There remains a lack of model agreement on the first
noteworthy question... Whether this change will commence on Tuesday
night or Wednesday morning. The 06z GFS is about 3 hours faster
than the 00z GFS and about 9 hours faster than the 00z ecmwf. A
model blend was utilized and would place a higher probability on
future model runs trending toward the slower ecmwf. The GFS has a
bias toward being too fast, especially with highly amplified
patterns. Also, a majority of 00z GFS ensemble members are slower
than the operational solution.

Differences in timing, strength, and track of individual
disturbances increase from there. But, a couple of broad
statements can be made. There is a high probability of the series
of disturbances to produce weather impacts at least into Saturday
and possibly into Sunday. Also, snow levels are likely to come
down to around or slightly below the major passes at times. This
includes the passes in the cascades: siskiyou summit, crater
lake, diamond lake, and lake of the woods... As well as the passes
east of the cascades. While of lower probability, it is not out
of the question for the mt. Shasta area also to receive some snow.

The forecast includes a high probability of precipitation through
the long term with a slight increase in the probability compared
to our previous issuance. But, it is worth noting that there will
be at least short breaks between disturbances.

The description of individual time frames in the previous
discussion still very much applies. Low pressure is forecast to
develop along the front west of the northern california coast on
Wednesday, which is another factor favoring the slower ecmwf. The
bulk of the moisture and energy with this initial frontal system
is indicated to push into northern california Wednesday.

Therefore, both precipitation probabilities and amounts are higher
along and near the coast and across NW california than elsewhere
for Wednesday. Snow levels are expected to be in the 5500 to 6500
foot range.

For thanksgiving day, precipitation is likely to spread farther
inland. Snow levels are expected to fall into the 4500-5500 foot
range, which is still above siskiyou summit, but low enough to
affect travel over higher portions of the oregon cascades.

Significant precipitation of 1 to 2 inches may fall in just 6
hours in portions of curry, and western and southern siskiyou
counties, so we'll need to keep an eye on this weather system
should those amounts pan out and or snow levels drop any farther
in the mount shasta area.

Friday into next weekend two more frontal systems push into the area
with snow levels in the 3500 to 6000 foot range. Models continue to
indicate the focus of moisture with these frontal systems to be
across northern california, with a secondary focus along the coast.

All in all, it should be noted that wind speeds and precipitation
are likely to at least be a nuisance to travel and may produce
hazardous conditions. So, stay tuned for possible wind, rain, and
snow headlines as we go into the thanksgiving holiday and,
especially the following weekend. -lutz dw

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Air stagnation advisory until 4 am pst Tuesday for orz024>031.

Air stagnation advisory until 4 am pst Tuesday for orz023.

Air stagnation advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am pst
Tuesday for orz021.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 4 pm pst this
afternoon for pzz350-356-370-376.

Nsk nsk nsk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 5 mi56 min E 5.1 G 6 49°F1017.9 hPa
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 28 mi39 min 54°F5 ft
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 48 mi44 min Calm G 0 60°F 49°F1016.8 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR2 mi36 minNNE 410.00 miFair46°F46°F100%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW4NW4N5N10N11N12N10N5CalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3CalmN6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4
1 day agoNW5N4CalmN8N12N16N12N7N7NE3CalmCalmCalmN3NE3N3N4CalmNE5SE4CalmCalmNE3Calm
2 days agoSE7E3CalmSE8SE9SE6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmS5N5CalmNE3

Tide / Current Tables for Empire, Coos Bay, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:01 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:10 AM PST     1.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:13 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:11 AM PST     6.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:19 PM PST     2.73 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:30 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:49 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:57 PM PST     5.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.51.72.23.14.25.15.86.165.44.63.83.12.82.83.23.84.555.14.94.33.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.