Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Bend, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 5:10PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 5:18 AM PST (13:18 UTC) Moonrise 7:25AMMoonset 5:06PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 418 Am Pst Tue Jan 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am pst Wednesday...
.gale warning in effect from 7 am to 7 pm pst Wednesday...
.hazardous seas warning in effect from 7 pm Wednesday to 4 pm pst Saturday...
Today..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft... Subsiding to 3 to 4 ft. W swell 12 to 14 ft at 14 seconds. Rain likely before Sunrise, then chance of showers.
Tonight..S wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 12 to 13 ft at 14 seconds. Slight chance of rain through the night.
Wed..S wind 15 to 25 kt...rising to gales 40 kt. Wind waves 5 to 8 ft...building to 10 to 13 ft in the afternoon. W swell 10 to 11 ft at 13 seconds. Rain.
Wed night..S wind 30 kt...easing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 7 to 9 ft...subsiding to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. SW swell 12 to 15 ft...building to W 17 to 18 ft after midnight. Rain.
Thu..SW wind 15 to 20 kt...rising to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft...building to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. W swell 24 to 27 ft. Showers.
Thu night..SW wind 15 to 25 kt...becoming 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft...subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. W swell 21 to 24 ft. Showers and slight chance of tstms.
Fri..SW wind 15 kt...becoming 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 21 to 22 ft.
Sat..S wind 15 to 20 kt...rising to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 ft...building to 8 ft. W swell 20 ft...subsiding to 15 ft and N 1 ft.
PZZ300 418 Am Pst Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Conditions today and tonight will be hazardous to small craft due to a steep westerly swell. A strong front will move through the coastal waters Wednesday with strong south gale to storm force winds. The front will move onshore Wednesday evening, with a very high and dangerous westerly swell to follow late Wednesday night into Thursday. Seas will remain elevated with weaker systems moving through Thursday night into Friday. Another strong front will move through Saturday night into Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Bend, OR
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location: 43.42, -124.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 161151
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
351 am pst Tue jan 16 2018
updated aviation section

Discussion
Precipitation is ongoing this morning as this cold front pushes
through the region. Snow levels are roughly around 5000 feet as
the mt. Ashland lodge cameras at 6000 feet were showing snow
earlier this morning.

The rest of the focus remains on the upcoming system on Thursday.

Models are in ok agreement with the NAM being an outlier,
especially with the QPF on Thursday. Winds are in general more
southerly in the NAM compared to the other solutions leading to
some pretty drastic downsloping effects for the west side valleys.

The SREF actually has more precipitation for medford than the nam
during Wednesday night, which is fairly unusual to say the least.

Anyways, the forecast calls for 3.0 inches of rain near brookings
from 0z Thursday until 12z Friday and about a half inch in the
west side valleys. For the cascades, we're forecasting about 1
inch of liquid, which should come down as rain first with snow
levels around 7000 feet. Then the snow levels will drop rapidly
with the frontal passage down to 3500 feet Thursday evening. Snow
accumulations are looking ok with 10 inches expected for crater
lake and mt ashland between 0z Thursday and 12z Friday. The low
that will be impacting the region will continue to bring some
showers to the region Friday and Saturday. So those snowfall and
rainfall totals will continue to increase as time moseys on.

Right now the forecast is calling for 17 inches of snow at crater
lake and mt ashland from 0z Thursday through 12z Sunday. That is
probably on the high side given that its dependent on showers
precipitating precisely on those locations.

The last topic is winds as this strong low in the gulf of alaska
will create some strong pressure gradients between redding and
medford during 6z Thursday. We're looking at the gradient around
7-8 mb, which is usually a good indicator of strong winds in the
shasta valley. As for the east side, it's a bit tougher to say as
the 700mb winds drop down to 55 knots as they head east. Would
like to see those winds stay stronger in the 60 -70 knot range for
a high wind warning near summer lake, so we kept the high wind
watch going for tonight. It should be noted the rogue valley will
also be a little windy, but the flow doesn't align perfectly with
the valley, so no wind products expected there.

-smith

Aviation 16 12z TAF cycle... Local ifr fog low stratus is
expected in the valleys west of the cascades this morning. Lifr is
showing up at the grants pass airport at 12z and probably will
impact some terminals in the umpqua, rogue and illinois valleys as
well this morning. These lower conditions should gradually lift to
vfr for all areas this afternoon. Overall, tonight will beVFR,
except local ifr again in fog low stratus in the valleys west of the
cascades toward morning. Stronger winds aloft will reach the coast
by Wednesday morning, so low-level wind shear is possible at north
bend after 10z. -spilde

Marine Updated 230 am pst Tuesday 16 jan 2018... Conditions will
be hazardous to small craft today through tonight with a westerly
swell of 12-15 feet at around 14 seconds. A strong pacific front
will move into the waters Wednesday and winds will increase to gale
force Wednesday morning with storm force winds possible in the
waters beyond about 15 nm from shore and north of CAPE blanco. The
front will move onshore Wednesday evening and winds will subside
overnight. Gale storm watches have been upgraded to warnings.

Model guidance is in agreement that a very high west swell will
arrive Wednesday night. The models are indicating swells as high as
30 feet, which would be historically high. Confidence in this
occurring is high, so we have opted to hoist a high surf warning
along the coast with longer than usual lead time, in order for
coastal PORTS harbors to prepare. This can be viewed at cfwmfr. It
goes without saying that bar conditions will be downright dangerous
with extremely rough surf. Mariners are urged to use extreme caution
or just remain in port until this period of stormy weather ends.

Weaker storms will follow Thursday into Friday. Another strong front
will move onshore sometime next weekend. -spilde

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... High surf warning from 4 pm Wednesday to 7 am pst Saturday for
orz021-022.

High wind watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
night for orz030-031.

Ca... High wind watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
for caz081.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 7 am pst Wednesday
for pzz350-356-370-376.

Gale warning from 7 am to 7 pm pst Wednesday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning from 7 pm Wednesday to 4 pm pst Saturday
for pzz350-356-370-376.

Storm warning from 7 am to 7 pm pst Wednesday for pzz370.

Czs mas mas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 5 mi48 min SE 1.9 G 6 52°F1021.7 hPa
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 28 mi55 min 53°F14 ft
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 48 mi48 min SSE 12 G 14 53°F 53°F1022 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR2 mi22 minSE 610.00 miFair46°F45°F96%1022.2 hPa

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5SE5SE5CalmS5SE5SE4SE6SW7CalmSE6SE3SW16
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1 day agoSE5SE5E4CalmSE10SE8E7E4CalmE3W4CalmCalmSE4SE4SE5SE6E6SE6E3SE8S6CalmSE7
2 days agoE3CalmSE3SE5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE6E11E15E14SE5S3S6SE5SE9SE8S3SE4CalmNE4E4

Tide / Current Tables for Empire, Coos Bay, Oregon
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Empire
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:51 AM PST     5.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:09 AM PST     3.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:24 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:46 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:52 AM PST     7.05 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:05 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:08 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:18 PM PST     New Moon
Tue -- 06:58 PM PST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.45.75.44.743.333.23.9566.876.65.64.12.51.10-0.30.11.22.64

Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:19 AM PST     6.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:22 AM PST     3.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:24 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:46 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:20 AM PST     7.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:04 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:06 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:11 PM PST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:18 PM PST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
65.95.34.53.83.33.444.966.97.47.36.453.21.50.3-0.3-0.10.92.23.75

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.