Tuesday, October24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mexico, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 6:09PM Tuesday October 24, 2017 7:13 AM EDT (11:13 UTC) Moonrise 10:52AMMoonset 8:34PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 439 Am Edt Tue Oct 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon...
Today..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers early, then a chance of showers late this morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening, then clearing. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west less than 10 knots. Sunny in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LOZ044 Expires:201710241515;;329923 FZUS51 KBUF 240839 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 439 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-241515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mexico, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.43, -76.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbuf 241046
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
646 am edt Tue oct 24 2017

Synopsis
Behind a cold front cooler air deepen across the region, which
will progressively lowering daytime highs through Thursday. This
cooler air will also begin to produce lake effect rain showers
to the northeast of the great lakes, late Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Afternoon highs will rebound upward Friday and into
the weekend.

Near term through tonight
A cold front continues to push its way across the region this
morning, now advancing across the eastern waters of lake ontario and
the finger lakes region. Regional radars display a large area of
rain showers from about wayne county eastward. Meanwhile a narrow
band of showers and gusty wind ahead of the upper level low is
tracking across lake erie, and clipping portions of far western
portions of wny.

Rain showers will exit the eastern zones this morning with the
passing of the cold front. By late this morning and then through a
good portion of the night our region should be in a relatively
calmer... As we lie between the upper level low to our west, and cold
front to our east. It will not be until late tonight that
temperatures aloft cool sufficiently (to near 0-2c at 850 hpa) such
that lake enhanced and later lake effect rain forms northeast of
lake erie. A brisk ssw wind will bring the initial band across the
northern niagara frontier.

Highs today will be in the upper 60s to the east, while to the west
where cold air will begin to deepen, highs will be in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. It will be much cooler tonight with lows in the 40s
(and possibly upper 30s over the so. Tier).

Short term Wednesday through Friday night
Deep longwave troughing work across the great lakes will dictate
conditions during the Wednesday into Thursday time period. A period
of cold air advection will occur Wednesday and Wednesday night as
upper heights continue to fall. This will aid in lowering 850 mb
temperatures to -2c to -3c. This process within a background of
sustained moist cyclonic flow will generate a growing over-lake
convective depth as instability increases resulting in a decent lake
effect response with rain showers developing off lake erie. Low
level southwest trajectories would focus most of the lake effect
rain showers across grand island and northern portions of the
niagara frontier early in the day Wednesday, shifting across the
buffalo metro area in the afternoon and the south towns by
Wednesday evening.

Low level flow becomes more west-southwest as the upper trough
starts to cross the region Wednesday night. This will focus the lake
effect rain showers south of buffalo across western southern tier. A
lake effect response can be expected off lake ontario as well,
increasing in coverage later Wednesday night across jefferson and
lewis counties, pushing into oswego county by Thursday morning.

Flow weakens on Thursday into Thursday night as transient upper
level ridging will build into the region. This will bring drying as
the flow turns southwesterly, with a sharpening warm air advection
pattern developing, shutting off the lake effect process.

High pressure will drift to the east coast on Friday, but still
remain near enough to provide subsidence and support another dry
day. Southerly return flow will increase between the departing high
and another strong trough moving into the upper midwest. This will
allow temperatures to briefly return to above normal, with highs
back into the mid 60s.

Long term Saturday through Monday
Model guidance begins to diverge after that, with the 12z gfs
notably faster in bringing the next system into our region than
the 12z ecmwf. The faster GFS brings showers into the bulk of
the region Saturday as a cold front slowly crosses the area,
while the ECMWF would keep Saturday dry with the cold front not
arriving until later Saturday night. Given the uncertainty in
timing, have just slowly increased pops through the chance range
from west to east Saturday and Saturday night.

Unsettled weather will likely persist Sunday through Monday as the
cold front moves slowly east of the area, and then a significant
wave of low pressure develops along the front and moves northward
along the eastern seaboard. An associated upper level low will close
off and remain over the eastern great lakes, supporting a chance of
rain showers each day. Temperatures will turn significantly cooler
by Sunday and Monday, but it does not appear cold enough to allow
for any wet snow to mix in even across higher terrain.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
A cold front will continue to push across the region this early
morning for the 06z tafs with mainly MVFRVFR flight conditions. A
narrow band of heavier showers will briefly lower visibilities
towards ifr, but this should be an hour or less in duration. Some
lower clouds linger over the so. Tier with spotty ifr early.

Ahead of the front winds can still remain gusty across kart... With
gusts 25 to 30 knots possible.

Drying behind the front should leave the region MVFRVFR with rain
showers east of the tafs sites by 13-15z. A cool flow will remain
across the region through the end of the TAF period... With mainly
vfr flight conditions, though some lower MVFR ceilings will remain
possible.

Outlook...

Wednesday... MainlyVFR... Except at kbuf kiag where some
showers will be likely... And reductions to MVFR will be possible.

Thursday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers east of lake ontario.

Friday...VFR.

Saturday...VFR to MVFR with scattered showers.

Marine
A deep storm system near the soo today will maintain brisk winds
over the lakes, with small craft advisories over the next few days.

A southwest wind today over lake erie will maintain SCA here, while
this same southwest wind will bring winds 15 to 20 knots on the
eastern shoreline of lake ontario this morning.

Winds will diminish some later today behind a cold front, though as
cold air deepens over the lakes, and the upper level low draws
closer winds and waves will again increase. Southwest winds will
near 30 knots on lake erie later tonight, while on lake ontario
increasing winds will generate a renewed set of small craft
advisories.

As the upper level low weakens and slides eastward the winds and
waves will diminish Wednesday-Wednesday night.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Wind advisory until 8 am edt this morning for nyz006>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Thursday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 8 am edt
Wednesday for lez020.

Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 2 pm
edt Wednesday for loz043.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 2 pm edt
Wednesday for loz042.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for
loz045.

Small craft advisory from 2 am to 5 pm edt Wednesday for
loz044.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Thomas
short term... Tma
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Thomas
marine... Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 17 mi43 min W 9.9 G 14 59°F 1002.8 hPa57°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 43 mi73 min SW 16 G 16 60°F 61°F4 ft1001.9 hPa (+0.8)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 75 mi73 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 62°F 1003.4 hPa (-0.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 76 mi43 min 62°F 1002.5 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
Last
24hr
SE15
G20
SE14
G21
SE15
G21
S13
G18
S10
G14
S15
G22
S13
G18
S10
G19
S12
G16
S13
G19
SE12
G18
SE11
G15
SE11
G16
SE14
G22
SE14
G23
SE17
G23
SE13
G19
SE14
G22
SE17
G26
SE18
G25
SE17
G23
SE12
G19
S5
G9
SW5
1 day
ago
S11
S11
G14
SE10
G15
S10
G14
S9
S4
G7
SE5
G9
S6
S7
G10
SE6
SE8
G12
S5
G8
SE8
SE9
G13
SE9
G12
S11
G14
SE10
G14
SE10
G14
SE12
G15
SE12
G16
SE13
G17
SE13
G17
SE11
G16
SE12
G16
2 days
ago
S11
S11
S10
S8
S8
SW3
G6
NW4
NW2
NE1
NE4
--
S3
S5
S7
S9
S8
SE10
G13
SE11
S8
SE9
G13
S8
G13
S10
S10
S11

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY11 mi19 minVar 54.00 miRain67°F62°F84%1002.2 hPa
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY22 mi19 minSE 610.00 miLight Rain65°F64°F97%1002.2 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
Last 24hrSE5SE5SE6SE8
G15
S11
G18
S16
G22
S10
G17
S12
G24
6
G20
S9
G16
SE8SE7SE8SE8SE8SE9
G21
SE9
G19
SE10
G16
SE12
G23
SE10
G23
SE10
G20
SE8
G16
SE8
G14
5
1 day ago33SE3S5S5S5S753SE4SE43SE443SE4SE444SE44SE4SE54
2 days agoCalmCalm3S4S6S3SW3SW4CalmCalmCalmE3SE3SE4SE3SE3SE5SE3SE3SE5SE3SE3SE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (7,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.