Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mexico, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 8:00PM Monday August 21, 2017 9:26 PM EDT (01:26 UTC) Moonrise 4:58AMMoonset 7:04PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 258 Pm Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening...
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning...then showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some Thunderstorms may be severe with strong winds in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Showers and Thunderstorms in the evening...then a chance of showers overnight. Some Thunderstorms may be severe with strong winds. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of waterspouts in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots. A chance of waterspouts in the evening. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ044 Expires:201708220315;;735442 FZUS51 KBUF 211858 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 258 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-045-220315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mexico, NY
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location: 43.43, -76.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 212325
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
725 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017

Synopsis
The return flow between a surface high off the mid-atlantic and low
pressure approaching the region will build heat and humidity through
Tuesday. A strong cold front will cross the region late Tuesday, and
may be accompanied by strong to severe thunderstorms. The end of the
week into the weekend will have a touch of fall in the air as a
sprawling canadian high pressure builds in cooler and drier air.

Near term through Tuesday
This evening will be dry, however mid and high level cloud cover
will increase ahead of a deepening low pressure system over the
upper great lakes. A strengthening low-level jet will feed warmer,
moisture rich air into the area on the deep southwesterly flow ahead
of the low pressure system. Despite patchy model qpf, suspect the
leading edge of this jet will provide ample lift for a few scattered
thunderstorms to develop late tonight across far western portions of
the cwa. The increasing ssw winds will also keep overnight
temperatures quite warm with most locations not falling out of the
70s overnight, and also quite muggy as dew points rise into the
upper 60s to the near the 70 degree mark by early Tuesday morning.

The primary forecast concern continues to be the potential for
severe weather on Tuesday. SPC continues to have the area in a
slight risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds the primary
risk.

Model consensus has been fairly consistent with this system, with
12z guidance trending perhaps a tad faster. The leading edge of a 50
kt 850mb LLJ will continue to lift from sw-ne across the region
Tuesday morning. This will leave robust wind profiles across the
entire region by late Tuesday morning, with more than ample speed
and directional shear to support well organized convective
development. The critical factor appears to be how much
sunshine there is before clouds associated with the shortwave
overspreads the area and limits daytime heating. Forecast
profiles show modest mid- level lapse rates with a long and thin
cape very sensitive to small differences in surface temperature
and dew point. If there is significant morning sunshine, then
the risk for severe weather will increase with damaging winds
the primary threat.

Although model guidance is in good agreement on the general pattern,
there is lower confidence in the specifics with model guidance
presenting a wide array of QPF solutions. In general expect
scattered thunderstorms during the morning hours with a limited
contribution from daytime instability but with some large scale
forcing and moisture. Areal coverage will expand during the
afternoon hours with the approach of the shortwave and with
increasing diurnal instability. High resolution guidance tends to
focus this across inland of the lake plains with lake shadowing
diminishing coverage some during the afternoon hours. Forecast
maintains categorical pops in these area, though specific timing
varies by a few hours by model.

There is also a potenial for heavy rain with thunderstorms on
Tuesday. Pwat values are forecast to approach 2 inches, with very
heavy rainfall possible. However, the strong flow will result in
fast storm motion which somewhat mitigates this threat, though it
still remains a concern if training were to occur.

Expect high temperatures on Tuesday to be in the 80s, but these may
need to be adjusted a few degrees in either direction depending on
cloud cover.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
The cold front will finally cross the area during the late
evening early overnight on Tuesday night. This will be accompanied
by a few more showers and thunderstorms... Ending from west to east.

In the wake of the front skies will clear from northwest to
southeast. As the night wears on however expect some lake
clouds to begin to form by morning.

On Wednesday a broad longwave trough will become established from
the great lakes to new england, with a secondary weak cold front
crossing the area during the late afternoon and evening. Any morning
sunshine will fade during the afternoon with the approach of the
secondary cold front and continued increase in lake effect and
upslope clouds. Increasing moisture and convergence over the lakes
may allow for a few lake enhanced showers during the afternoon and
evening. A few lake enhanced showers may continue into Wednesday
night east and southeast of the lakes, however short fetch NW flow
and a fairly dry synoptic scale background will keep this limited.

Temperature-wise the period will be dominated by much cooler and
less humid air. Highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Long term Thursday through Monday
A long wave trough will remain over the region through the end of
the week. A shortwave will deepen the trough Thursday, bringing
cloudy skies and a chance for a shower. Cool temperatures Thursday
in the 60s, will only improve a degree or two for Friday and
Saturday. Fair weather Friday and Saturday with abundant sunshine
as surface high pressure passes through.

Sunday a weak back door cold front will drop down from canada,
though limited moisture suggest nothing more than just a few clouds
with this feature. Dry weather is expected to continue into the
start of next week with high pressure again entrenched across the
northeast. As the upper level trough exits to the east Sunday,
temperatures will be a bit closer to normal in the mid 70s across
the region.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
Vfr conditions will prevail tonight and with an increasing mid-level
southwesterly flow. This may come close to llws criteria, but
appears to be just shy of this for now.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop well ahead of
an approaching cold front Tuesday morning, and expand in areal
coverage in the afternoon. These will result in periods of
MVFR ifr conditions, and these storms may also contain strong
winds. Also, pinning down the exact timing and location of these
storms will be difficult with high confidence in storm
development but low confidence in the details.

Outlook...

Tuesday night... Showers and thunderstorms in the evening, with
MVFR ifr conditions.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers.

Friday and Saturday...VFR.

Marine
Light southerly flow tonight will direct any waves mainly toward
canadian waters. A strong cold front will cross the region Tuesday
prompting small craft headlines as outlined below. A few strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms are also possible Tuesday ahead of the
cold front.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for nyz007.

Lakeshore flood watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
evening for nyz004>006.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Tuesday for lez020.

Small craft advisory from 10 am Tuesday to 5 am edt
Wednesday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Tuesday
for loz030.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm Tuesday to 11 pm edt
Wednesday for loz043>045.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm Tuesday to 2 pm edt
Wednesday for loz042.

Synopsis... Apffel
near term... Apffel tma
short term... Levan
long term... Thomas
aviation... Apffel tma
marine... Apffel church tma


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 17 mi38 min SW 1 G 1.9 76°F 1016.7 hPa66°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 43 mi86 min S 5.8 G 7.8 74°F 73°F1016.6 hPa (-0.5)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 75 mi26 min SSW 4.1 G 4.1 76°F 1017.9 hPa (-0.4)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 76 mi38 min 73°F 1016.9 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY11 mi32 minN 07.00 miFair70°F66°F90%1017.2 hPa
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY22 mi32 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F66°F81%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalm3S9S7SW54S3SW3Calm4CalmSW3CalmCalm
1 day agoW7SW4SW6SW5W4SW5NW6W6NW4CalmSW4W8W7SW4SW6NW84W7W9NW10W8W4SW3Calm
2 days agoW3SW3SW5SW5SW4SW4SE3S5S3SW4SW6SW7W8W8W8W10W10
G17
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.