Tuesday, January23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mexico, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 5:07PM Tuesday January 23, 2018 10:33 PM EST (03:33 UTC) Moonrise 10:57AMMoonset 11:50PM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 1231 Pm Est Tue Jan 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm est this evening through Wednesday afternoon...
This afternoon..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers early, then a chance of rain showers late. Waves in ice free areas 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west to 30 knots. Rain and snow showers in the evening, then lake effect snow showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Lake effect snow showers. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 10 knots or less. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of rain showers during the day, then rain showers likely Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LOZ044 Expires:201801232200;;887781 FZUS51 KBUF 231753 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1231 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-232200-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mexico, NY
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location: 43.43, -76.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 240310
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1010 pm est Tue jan 23 2018

Synopsis
Colder air will flow across the eastern great lakes region tonight
through Thursday, with minor bands of lake effect snow falling to
the east and southeast of the great lakes. Temperatures below normal
midweek, will return to above normal for the start of the weekend
with periods of rain showers.

Near term through Wednesday
A cold front which is located across western new york this
evening will continue to push into eastern new york late this
evening. Gusty winds which were just ahead of this front have
diminished across western new york, with gusts to 40 mph still
possible late this evening east of lake ontario where the front
has not crossed yet.

Otherwise, temperatures will continue to fall behind the front,
with 850mb temperatures across the area forecast to fall to -12c
to -15c by daybreak Wednesday. This cold air advection will
increase lake instability with minor accumulations east of lake
erie where there still are some open pockets of water. An
upstream connection to lake huron and upsloping may bring up to
1 to 3 inches of snow.

East of lake ontario where cold air is deeper... And instability
greater... Lake induced equilibrium levels will rise to around
4-5k feet. While not too impressive... Added convergence along a
secondary trough dropping south from lake ontario will bring
enough low level lift to generate a period of lake
effect upslope snows. A winter weather advisory will be issued
for this snow which could total 3 to 5 inches in spots on the
tug hill. Lower elevations such as watertown, lowville, and
fulton will have less... Generally an inch or two.

Later tonight and tomorrow behind an upper level trough of low
pressure northwest winds, and diminishing lake effect snow
parameters will bring light snow southeast of both lakes through the
remainder of the forecast period. Additional snow SE of the lakes
will be just an inch or two.

Temperatures tonight will drop back into the low to mid 20s, though
brisk winds will bring single digit apparent temperatures tonight
and into tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will be not much higher than
tonights lows... With highs in the mid 20s.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday night
Any lingering lake effect snow southeast of the lakes Wednesday
evening will diminish overnight into Thursday morning as high
pressure, subsidence and drier air builds across the region. With
this high pressure in control, expect a stretch of dry weather
Thursday through Friday. The surface high will settle across the
region on Thursday, bringing another day with high temperatures
slightly below normal, in the teens to mid 20s. Thursday night will
be another cold one, as the surface high settles to our the light
winds and clear skies will allow for temperatures to dip to near
zero in the north country. Meanwhile, for western ny, the return of
light southerly winds on the back side of the surface high will keep
temperatures near the 20 degree mark.

Temperatures will start another warming trend on Friday with return
flow developing as the surface high moves off the east coast. Highs
will range from the low to mid 40s in wny, to around the freezing
mark in the north country. Meanwhile, a trough moving into the upper
great lakes Friday night and Saturday will help amplify the
southwesterly flow across the region, increasing the warming
downslope flow Friday night into Saturday morning. This will make
for another mild night Friday night and perhaps even a few locations
in the genesee valley pushing 50 by Saturday. As we typically do
this time of year, we will pay the price for the warming with
increasing rain chances by later Saturday through Saturday night.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
The upper level trough will be centered across the great lakes
Saturday night. Ahead of the trough, surface low pressure will be
moving across nys into Sunday morning. W-nw flow will begin in the
wake of the surface low cold front and cold-air advection will
begin by Sunday evening. A shortwave trough embedded in the main
trough may produce another round of precipitation, snow this
time, across the eastern great lakes into Monday morning. As
850mb temperatures drop to near - 12c lake enhancement will
likely cause snow to intensify downwind of the lakes. Lake
effect snow showers will linger behind the disturbance main
trough into Monday night- Tuesday as 850mb temperatures reach -
15c. Accumulating snow is possible during this time frame.

Sunday will see above normal temperatures before the cold air
advection begins Sunday night. High temperatures will be in the low
to mid 40s Sunday to upper 20s low 30s Monday and Tuesday. Low
temperatures will see the 20s Sunday night to the teens Monday and
Tuesday night.

Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
A cold front which just passed through roc at 02z will move
across art by midnight. Temperatures will cool behind the front
which will change rain showers over to snow showers, with a
period of lake effect snow east of the lakes with ifr
conditions. This also will maintain lake effect clouds overnight
with mainly MVFR CIGS outside of the lake snow.

Drier air will gradually build in during the day Wednesday with
conditions gradually improving from ifr MVFR to mainlyVFR by
late in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...VFR.

Thursday and Friday...VFR.

Saturday and Sunday... Mainly ifr MVFR with rain showers likely.

Marine
Winds ahead of and behind a cold front will result in winds to
30 knots overnight, with small craft headlines in place across
most of the waters. Winds will diminish Wednesday as a ridge
axis passes across the great lakes later Wednesday.

Wednesday night and Thursday will bring an extended period of
lighter winds and waves 3 feet or less on the lakes... Into the
start of the weekend.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Wednesday for
nyz006>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am est Wednesday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Wednesday for lez020.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est Wednesday for
loz043-044.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est Wednesday for loz042-
045.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Apffel thomas
short term... Church
long term... Hsk
aviation... Apffel
marine... Apffel smith


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 17 mi45 min WSW 19 G 26 37°F 1003.1 hPa31°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 75 mi33 min W 16 G 22 34°F 1006.1 hPa (+2.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 76 mi45 min 34°F 1005.3 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY11 mi39 minWSW 19 G 2810.00 miLight Rain and Breezy38°F30°F76%1003.2 hPa
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY22 mi39 minWSW 16 G 2310.00 miLight Rain37°F34°F89%1003.4 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE76SE65SE5SE8
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SE8S5SE5SE3S54SE35NW12W16
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1 day agoCalmCalm333E4CalmCalmE3E3E3E5E3E5E4E46SE9SE85E5SE755
2 days agoSW5W5SW5S3S4S5CalmSW3CalmCalmS3SW4SW5SW4S3SW5SE43Calm3CalmE4SE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.