Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mexico, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:30AMSunset 8:36PM Sunday May 26, 2019 11:30 AM EDT (15:30 UTC) Moonrise 1:02AMMoonset 11:31AM Illumination 49% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201905260930;;474059 Fzus51 Kbuf 260602 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 202 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-260930- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 202 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
Overnight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Light and variable winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mexico, NY
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location: 43.43, -76.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 261455
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1055 am edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
A passing cold front may touch off a few spotty showers and
thunderstorms across the southern tier today... With fair dry
weather otherwise prevailing as surface high pressure builds
into the region behind the departing cold front. Dry and
comfortable weather will then persist through the remainder
of the holiday weekend... Before a wavy frontal boundary
pushes into our region and brings a return to unsettled
weather for most if not all of the upcoming work week.

Near term through Monday
As of this writing... Any fog from earlier this morning is now
confined to a couple of still-shrinking areas over and a little
inland from the northeastern portions of lakes erie and ontario...

with this expected to continue to thin and eventually entirely
dissipate by midday. Otherwise the area is mostly quiet and dry
aside from some spotty showers near the ny pa border... With
cloud cover varying widely from sunny mostly sunny skies across
the bulk of the niagara frontier and finger lakes to partly to
mostly cloudy conditions across the north country and southern
tier.

Through the rest of today... A weak cold frontal boundary will
continue to make its way southward across our region. The passage
of this boundary will be mostly dry... Save for across the southern
tier where it (and the northern remains of a weakening MCS passing
by to our south) will interact with somewhat deeper lingering
moisture modest diurnal instability and thus help to generate a few
spotty garden-variety showers and thunderstorms as we move through
the day. North of this... Partly to mostly sunny skies and dry
weather will prevail. Otherwise we can expect a fairly comfortable
afternoon... With temperatures mostly ranging in the lower to mid 70s
(possibly upper 70s across the warmer interior portions of the
finger lakes)... And dewpoints lowering into the 50s following the
frontal passage.

Tonight will be quiet and dry areawide as high pressure over
manitoba and the upper great lakes builds into the region behind the
weak cold front and provides further subsidence and drying... Which
should result in low clouds and fog being much less of (if any)
issue. Coupled with skies becoming partly cloudy to mainly clear
areawide... The drier airmass and lightening winds should allow for
overnight lows to settle into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

For the memorial day holiday... The center of the surface ridge
will settle directly across southern ontario and quebec. While
a shortwave diving southeastward across quebec province will try to
push a very weak cold front through this ridge and into our
region... The lack of upper support and only limited moisture
accompanying this boundary will result in this generating little
more than some partial cloud cover across lake ontario and the north
country. Otherwise it will be a simply salubrious day with a fair
amount of sunshine only giving way to some increasing mid and high
clouds across far western new york late... And high temperatures
mostly peaking in the upper 60s and lower 70s... Save for the south
shores of both lakes where an onshore flow off the chilly lake
waters will help to keep conditions notably cooler.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday night
Monday night, a surface base ridge to our northeast will likely
keep the area precipitation free, at least for the first half
of the night. With that said, an advancing warm front will be in
the process of lifting to the northeast which with moisture
ramping up (pw values nearing 1.5 inches) will likely lead to
increasing chances for showers and or thunderstorm by daybreak
Tuesday. Showers and storms will continue for a significant
portion of the day Tuesday as a weak wave tracks across new york
state. With its passage late in the day evening, showers and
storms will decrease in coverage until the next stronger wave
arrives as we head into Wednesday, more on that a bit later.

Lows Monday night will have a wide range with upper 40s across
the north country to the mid and upper 50s south of lake
ontario. Highs Tuesday will follow a similar pattern with mid to
upper 60s east of lake ontario(a bit cooler)and upper 70s near
80f elsewhere.

Tuesday night, the next wave will quickly race out of the midwest
and track into s. Ontario on its way towards western quebec by
Wednesday. While it tracks ene it will nudge a warm front northward
and then send a prefrontal trough across the area on
Wednesday Wednesday evening. With ample moisture in place and
supporting 40-50 knot LLJ yet again its likely another round of
showers and thunderstorms will be possible some of which could be
strong to severe. Following the passage of this feature convective
chances should then tail off again to a degree Wednesday night.

Highs Wednesday will likely be the warmest day of this period with
temperatures pushing into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows Tuesday
night will range from the mid and upper 50s across the north country
to lower 60s south of lake ontario. Wednesday night, lows areawide
will be in the 60s by day break Thursday.

Long term Thursday through Saturday
The last in a series of waves will push across the forecast area
Thursday with another round of scattered showers and or
thunderstorms. Thursday night, with its passage into quebec canada
and then into labrador strong surface ridging over the upper great
lakes will build east with cooler drier air filtering into our
region in the wake of the front. This will bring a much needed
period of fair and dry weather with more comfortable temperatures
for Friday and Friday night.

The surface ridge will slide off to our east on Saturday while
allowing the next wave of low pressure and its trailing cold front
to approach our region from the northwest. This could result in a
renewed potential for some scattered showers and storms as we
progress through the day, especially across the western southern
tier. It will also send temperatures climbing back into the 70s
areawide as a southwesterly flow of warmer air overspreads our
region in between the departing high and advancing low.

Aviation 15z Sunday through Thursday
A weak cold front will slip southward through the region today and
will pass through most of the area dry... Save for the western
southern tier where somewhat deeper moisture modest instability and
the lack of a cap may allow the front to generate a few spotty
showers and thunderstorms with attendant brief localized MVFR
conditions. Otherwise increasing subsidence and drying behind the
front will help to clear lingering ifr MVFR conditions across the
southern tier and north country... WithVFR conditions otherwise
prevailing. GeneralVFR conditions and dry quiet weather should then
prevail tonight as high pressure builds further into the region.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

Wednesday and Thursday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms.

Marine
Modest westerly winds (strongest across central and eastern
portions of lake ontario) will continue through the rest of today...

however conditions will remain well below advisory levels. Winds
will then veer to northwesterly and lighten tonight... Before turning
more northerly on Monday as the center of surface high pressure
slides into southern ontario and quebec.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will then return Monday night
and Tuesday and last through most of the upcoming week as a wavy
frontal boundary pushes northward into the lower great lakes... With
the next chance for advisory-level southwesterlies arriving
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Jjr
short term... Ar
long term... Ar jjr
aviation... Jjr zaff
marine... Jjr zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 17 mi36 min W 13 G 16 59°F 1013.3 hPa55°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 43 mi90 min W 7.8 G 9.7 47°F 44°F1 ft1013.2 hPa (+1.5)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 75 mi30 min NNW 6 G 15
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 76 mi36 min 75°F 1012.6 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY11 mi36 minW 1210.00 miFair76°F57°F52%1012.9 hPa
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY22 mi36 minW 1310.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F61°F60%1012.6 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S106SE5SE86SE7SE5S9
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S5S7S6S5SW5SW6SW6S4SW5SW5W8W10W10W12
1 day agoNW8NW7NW9W12
G17
NW11W8NW7NW7NW4CalmCalmE3CalmSE33E3CalmCalm3SE454S45
2 days ago3S8S7S8S7
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W10W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.