Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mexico, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 4:42PM Thursday November 15, 2018 5:37 AM EST (10:37 UTC) Moonrise 1:18PMMoonset 11:41PM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1231 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Overnight..East winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Snow likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east 5 to 15 knots. Snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Snow and rain in the morning, then rain with areas of drizzle in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday night..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 6 to 10 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely during the day, then snow and rain showers likely Saturday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201811151000;;324224 FZUS51 KBUF 150533 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1231 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-151000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mexico, NY
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location: 43.43, -76.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 150931
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
431 am est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will shift out of new york and into new england
today. The next system will begin to impact the region late this
morning and last through Friday. A wintry mix of snow, sleet
and freezing rain is expected for some areas before changing to
all snow by late tonight; while other areas will remain all snow
for the duration of the storm. Precipitation will transition to
lake effect on Friday and continue through Saturday followed by
scattered snow showers through early next week and continued
cool temperatures.

Near term through tonight
High pressure over new york state this morning will drift into new
england through the afternoon. Lows this morning will range from
near 20 to the mid 20s south of lake ontario, with the coldest
readings in the teens possibly dropping to the single digits east of
lake ontario.

Cloud cover over the area will thicken as the next area of low
pressure approaches wny this morning. An area of low pressure along
the carolina coast this morning will trek northeast along the coast,
strengthening in the process to a nor'easter. Strengthening will
occur as the sfc low pressure interacts with an approaching
mid upper level trough approaching from the mid mississippi valley.

As the two systems phase, the 500h vorticity maxima from the
approaching upper mid level low will help to strengthen the
developing nor'easter as both systems continue northeast along the
coast. As the nor'easter treks along the coast, a wide swath of
synoptic moisture from both the nor'easter and mid upper level low
and trough will overspread the area through this morning continuing
through the day. Pwats will increase through the day to a MAX value
of around 0.75 inches this afternoon and maintain values close to
that through the late evening. At the same time, synoptic forcing
from the nor'easter and the trough moving through will help move in
an expanding shield of precipitation with chance pops by mid morning
and likely pops by lunch time in the western southern tier,
expanding in coverage to the north and east.

Precipitation type with this storm will likely start out as a mix
across the western southern tier and southern wyoming and erie
counties, where a few hours of sleet, freezing rain and snow will
occur before transitioning to snow by the evening. Farther north and
east of theses areas of mixed precipitation, temperature profiles
should better support more of an all snow event, especially for
areas farther northeast away from the western southern tier.

Overall, guidance is a bit cooler than earlier runs, so bumped up
snow some, and ice accumulation's down. Ice accumulation should be
held down to a few hundredths of an inch along the southwest portion
of the area near the ny pa line. Temperatures today will top out in
the low to mid 30s across the area, with the warmest temperatures
closest to the lakeshores.

Most areas should transition to all snow by late this evening, and
snow will continue through the night into Friday morning. Interior
areas south and southeast of lake ontario should be located in an
area of heavier snowfall associated with the trowal of the
nor'easter. Snow amounts for the entire event are expected to be in
the 3-6 inch range for counties along the lake shores from rochester
west in addition to genesee and jefferson counties, where winter
weather advisories are in place. For areas from cattaraugus and
allegany counties northeast through the northern finger lakes to
lewis county, 6-9 inches of snow is expected where there is a winter
storm warning in place. With the plethora of overcast cloud cover
and ongoing snowfall, temperatures tonight will only cool a few
degrees from the daytime high, with temperatures cooling to the mid
20s across the higher terrain and to near 30 closer to the lakes.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
The significant synoptic system in the near term will rapidly exit
early Friday morning, with most of the accumulating snow gone by 12z
from the genesee valley westward, and shortly thereafter across the
eastern lake ontario region. Our attention will then turn quickly to
lake effect potential. Outside of lake effect areas, plenty of
clouds will remain Friday and Friday evening, with large scale
ascent associated with a mid level trough producing a few scattered
rain and wet snow showers. Temperatures aloft are initially too mild
for much lake response Friday morning, but lake induced instability
will improve by midday as a mid level trough crosses the eastern
great lakes and the associated mid level cold pool steepens lapse
rates. Instability will peak during the late afternoon when lake
induced equilibrium levels rise to 10k feet.

Off lake erie... Expect a band of lake effect to get organized near
or just south of buffalo by late morning. This band will then move a
little farther north by early afternoon into the buffalo metro area
and possibly even the northtowns as boundary layer flow backs to 240
degrees. During the mid to late afternoon a rapid wind shift to
westerly will carry this band of lake effect rapidly back south
across the buffalo metro area and onshore along the entire lake erie
shoreline, settling across the chautauqua ridge and rapidly
weakening by early evening.

Boundary layer temperatures and temperatures aloft suggest
precipitation type will most likely be a rain snow mix with above
freezing surface temperatures. Precipitation could go over to all
snow in the middle of the band given strong enough dynamic cooling,
and also across the higher terrain just inland from lake erie late
in the day when the band moves south. These areas may see 1-2 inches
of slushy accumulation from this, but fairly rapid band motion and
marginal surface temperatures should prevent anything higher.

Friday night inversion heights lower further, with scattered light
snow showers across the western southern tier and little additional
accumulation.

Off lake ontario... Expect a similar scenario a few hours later. Lake
enhanced precipitation will develop in the afternoon from the
northern tug hill into jefferson county. This will then drop south
across the tug hill during the late afternoon and early evening.

Inversion heights then stay a little higher overnight, so this may
allow for some weak lake effect to continue across oswego county and
the southern tug hill before weakening late.

Precipitation type will be a mix of rain and wet snow Friday
afternoon and evening at lower elevations, with mainly snow across
the higher terrain of the tug hill and western foothills of the
adirondacks. This may produce a few inches of accumulation across
higher terrain, with a warmer surface keeping accumulations minimal
across lower elevations close to the lake.

On Saturday and Saturday night a surface cold front will slowly move
southeast across the area as a low amplitude mid level trough
brushes by the great lakes and new england. Model guidance continues
to suggest a weak baroclinic wave developing along this boundary. If
this wave matures it may produce a swath of light snow across much
of the region south of lake ontario, with some modest lake
enhancement east and southeast of the lakes. The degree to which
this wave matures is still in question with a good deal of model
spread, but either way potential snow amounts look to be light.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Broad upper level troughing will continue to dominate the great lakes
and northeastern states in the extended portion of the forecast...

resulting in a certainty of continued well below normal temperatures
through the middle of next week. Speaking more specifically... We can
expect daily highs to mostly be in the 30s... While nightly lows range
from the teens and lower 20s across the north country to the mid and
upper 20s elsewhere. Such readings will be more typical of mid-winter
than of the middle of november.

In terms of precipitation... While the medium range guidance suite is
in general agreement on a couple of weak surface troughs affecting our
region in the Sunday-Monday time frame... Considerable discrepancies
still exist with respect to the track and timing of these features.

The latest 00z model guidance has continued this trend with a good
deal of run to run differences in the handling of shorter wavelength
features. Consequently... The orientation... Strength... And amount of
shear in the low level wind field at any given point also remains
much in question. With both of the above in mind... Forecast
confidence in the timing and placement of both synoptically-driven
and lake-driven precipitation during the first half of this period
remains on the low side... And as such have continued with mostly
broadbrush snow shower chances through Tuesday night.

Heading towards the thanksgiving holiday, it still appears there
will be a warming trend spreading east through the great lakes,
although the timing has slipped later. Temperatures may remain below
normal through Wednesday or even Thursday before warmer air arrives,
at least briefly, at the end of the week.

Aviation 10z Thursday through Monday
High pressure across new york state will slide into new england
through this morning. This will result in widespreadVFR conditions
through around 15z this morning. High clouds in advance of the next
system will be spread across the region through the morning. Cloud
heights will lower through the morning ahead of the next system.

The next storm system will spread a wintry mix which will move into
the area late this morning through the evening from southwest to
northeast. This mix will mainly be snow, but will be mixed with
sleet at times and freezing rain cannot completely be ruled out
either. Expect conditions to lower to ifr or lower with the arrival
of this precipitation.

Tonight and Friday... MVFR ifr with brief lifr possible in wintry mix
of sleet and snow.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday... MainlyVFR, but ifr possible east of
both lakes in lake rain and or snow.

Monday... MVFR ifr with a chance of snow showers.

Marine
Winds will increase out of the east to southeast today. A coastal
low will bring the next wintry mix potential starting late this
morning into Friday. A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain is
expected before changing to all snow by Friday morning. The
strongest winds will remain off shore through Thursday night.

Westerly winds increase Friday and small craft conditions will
return for the end of the work week and into the weekend.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est
Friday for nyz007.

Winter storm warning from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est
Friday for nyz006-008.

Winter storm warning from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 am est
Friday for nyz004-005-014.

Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 am est
Friday for nyz001>003-010-011.

Winter storm warning from 1 pm this afternoon to 7 am est
Friday for nyz012-013-020-021.

Winter weather advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 7 am est
Friday for nyz019-085.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Apffel sw
near term... Sw
short term... Hitchcock
long term... Hitchcock jjr
aviation... Apffel sw
marine... Apffel sw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 17 mi38 min SSE 8 G 12 22°F 11°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 43 mi98 min E 7.8 G 12 27°F 48°F2 ft1034.8 hPa (-1.0)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 75 mi38 min SE 9.9 G 13 29°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 76 mi38 min 27°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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NW14
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NW6
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G30
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S7
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G16
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G11
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G13
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G12
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY11 mi44 minE 310.00 miFair20°F10°F68%1035.1 hPa
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY22 mi44 minE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy18°F12°F81%1034.9 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11NW13
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NW11NW8NW11NW6NW4NW8NW6N5CalmCalmCalmE33E3CalmE3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS3SW4SW6W7W6W10NW11NW12NW9NW7NW10NW8NW4W3W6SW8NW14
G23
W15
G27
NW13
G23
NW16
G23
NW9
G17
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS5S7S6SW7W5SW43CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4S5CalmS6S6SW4S6S7Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.