Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mexico, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 5:46PM Friday February 22, 2019 8:20 AM EST (13:20 UTC) Moonrise 9:39PMMoonset 8:53AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LOZ044 Expires:201902220415;;310869 Fzus51 Kbuf 220222 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 922 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-220415- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 922 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am est Friday...
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Scattered snow showers after midnight. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening, then rain showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..South winds to 30 knots becoming west and increasing to 45 knot gales. Rain showers during the day, then rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers Sunday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 17 to 22 feet. Waves occasionally around 28 feet.
Monday..West gales to 40 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 15 to 20 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 26 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 35 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mexico, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.43, -76.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbuf 221106
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
606 am est Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build across the region through tonight providing
dry weather which will last well into Saturday. A strong storm
system will then arrive this weekend, with rain overspreading the
region Saturday night. A powerful cold front will then cross the
region Sunday with more rain and widespread damaging winds.

Near term through tonight
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows an area of
stratus across southern ontario province expanding southward
across lake ontario and into western new york. These will
continue to expand into our region during the morning hours,
with the day starting off with a mix of Sun and clouds. These
clouds will eventually begin to erode and scatter out this
afternoon. Highs today will be in mid to upper 30s in most
areas, except the lower 30s east of lake ontario. With light
winds and some sunshine it will feel warmer compared to
yesterday.

Surface high pressure will be centered across the region this
evening with clearing skies and light winds. This high will slide
east into new england late tonight, but still will provide good
radiational cooling conditions. Because of this, the forecast hedges
colder than consensus guidance, especially east of lake ontario
since it will remain closer to the departing surface high.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the lower 20s at most locations,
and into the teens (and possibly single digits) east of lake
ontario. There also may be some patchy fog due to lingering low
level moisture and the calm winds.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
A major storm system will impact the region this period... With high
winds, potential for lake shore flooding east of both lakes, and
accumulating lake effect snow to close out the period.

Headline changes... We will upgrade the high wind watch to a warning
for the entire region as confidence remains high for very strong
wind gusts. Model consistency, comparison to previous high wind
events and a climatological favored track for high winds supports
the decision to upgrade. A lake shore flood watch has been expanded
to jefferson and oswego counties where high waves crashing into the
shoreline may cause beach erosion, and if the ice sheet on the
northeast end of the lake becomes dislodged in the high winds... High
waves may push into the bays of jefferson county. Also a northwest
wind Sunday night and Monday may shift the ice sheet southward along
the oswego coastline, possibly creating an ice jam for creeks and
streams that empty into the lake.

Saturday easterly flow will begin to increase through the day as a
surface high pressure exits out to sea off the new england
coastline. Much of the day will be dry, with clouds increasing ahead
of a deepening storm system across the mid mississippi valley. A few
rain showers are possible late in the day across the so. Tier, but
it will be until Saturday night that much of the region receives
rain.

The amplified pattern, with southeasterly flow forcing milder air
northward will spell plain rain for the region Saturday night. Deep
moisture ahead of the mid-mississippi trough will be transported
across the great lakes region Saturday night feeding these areas of
rain. Rain ahead of a warm front will spread across the region
Saturday night, though greater duration and forecasted rainfall will
be to the west and east of our region where isentropic lift will be
greater. Elevated instability of 200 to 400 j kg may bring a few
rumbles of thunder to SW nys. Will add a chance of thunder into the
southern tier, and also southern erie and wyoming county. Overall
rainfall Saturday night will range from a tenth to a third of an
inch on average basin wide.

The push of milder air northward should keep the p-type as all rain
for much of our region. The exception will be the north country
where lingering cold air may allow for a few areas of wet snow to
fall before quickly turning to rain Saturday night.

Under strong warm air advection through the night temperatures will
begin to rise in the evening (and just past midnight east of lake
ontario). By the closure of Saturday night into Sunday morning much
of wny will likely be around 50f.

The 00z models continue to track a deepening, and anomalously deep
low across lake michigan and near the soo Saturday night and Sunday,
with a 65 to 75 knot LLJ passing across the region Sunday and Sunday
night. Both the 00z GFS and ECMWF as well as the canadian model all
deepen this low to around 971 to 972 mb Sunday evening.

This deep low coupled with strong cold air advection (850 hpa
temperatures dropping 12 to 16 degrees celsius through the day),
forcing from a passing isallobaric couplet and passing 1.5 PV tail
(down to near 500 hpa) across the region will transport very strong
winds down to the surface through the day Sunday, beginning in the
late morning hours and continuing through Sunday night. As the 1.5
pv tail crosses the region Sunday afternoon behind a strong cold
front, and potential for 60 knots of wind flow dipping below 1k
feet, wind gusts at the surface could approach 75 mph downwind of
lake erie and across the lake plain. Several past high wind events
have shown up in the cips analogs, including high wind events of feb
10th 2001, feb 1 2002, jan 9 2008. The jan 9th event at the surface
looks similar to this, with a surface low tracking across the soo
that deepens to around 971 mb. One difference is the surface high
building across the plains is stronger for our event Sunday... Which
will bring a tighter pressure gradient supporting confidence that
wind gusts 65 to 75 mph will be possible.

Sunday morning will begin very warm with temperatures in the morning
hours peaking well into the 50s across wny. A few 60 degree readings
are possible in the genesee valley within this anomalous weather
pattern. Temperatures across wny will begin to fall by late morning
as the surface cold front crosses the region. Additional rainfall
Sunday will be on the order of a tenth or two.

As the cold front crosses the region Sunday wind gusts will quickly
strengthen from west to east, with damaging west-southwest gusts
howling across the region. The strongest winds are expected Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night. What will also make this wind event
concerning will be the prolonged period of damaging winds... With
gusts over 60 mph possible for a 12 to 18 hour period. This lengthy
period of winds battering the region could increase the severity of
the wind event. Strong winds will persist into Sunday night, this
more of a west to west-northwest direction as the surface low tracks
across southern quebec.

Winds will eventually begin to decrease Sunday night as the surface
low begins to fill across canada.

After the initial wave of rain crosses the region Sunday, a dry slot
may bring a temporary period of rainfree weather before moisture
wraps back around our region with at first rain showers that will
quickly transition to snow.

Temperatures at 850 hpa will plummet to -15c over the lakes which
will increase the instability and generate lake effect snow. As lake
effect snow parameters become favorable bands of snow will form to
the east and then southeast of the lakes. Ice on lake erie should
limit the snow to just a few inches across ski country. However open
waters of lake ontario and a west to northwest flow over the long
axis of the lake should bring a band of light to moderate snow
inland. East of lake ontario snow accumulations could exceed
advisory range... And will include this in the hwo. Of concern will
be the still strong winds within this lake snow. These winds will
create significant blowing of snow that will greatly reduce
visibilities.

Temperatures Sunday night will drop into the upper teens to mid 20s,
with temperatures 12z Monday morning some 20 to 30f degrees cooler
than where they were 24 hours prior.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Windy conditions will continue into Monday as the powerful storm
system moves into the canadian maritimes. A very tight pressure
gradient will lead to northwest winds gusting initially 45 to 60 mph
early Monday morning down to 20 to 35 mph Monday evening. Pressure
rises will slow down Monday evening and winds will finally settle
down. Cold air advection will also be occurring Monday and Monday
night with 850 mb temperatures falling to around -15 deg c by Monday
evening. Northwest flow across the lakes will result in lake snows
especially east southeast of lake ontario. Additional accumulations
will be minor Monday, with perhaps just another inch or two
southeast of lake ontario.

Mostly zonal flow will persist across much of the north-central
conus mid-week. High pressure will move into the great lakes Monday
night and Tuesday. Models diverge from there with the 12z gfs
developing a weak system that tracks to the south. This may bring
accumulating snow to the area Tuesday night-Wednesday night. On the
contrary, the 12z ECMWF has high pressure across much of the great
lakes through mid-week. Very cold temperatures are also possible
into mid-week if the 12z ECMWF pans out.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
Satellite imagery shows an area of lake enhanced stratus
spreading southward across lake ontario. This will result in
increasing cloud cover this morning before these clouds
gradually scatter out this afternoon. These clouds will mainly
be in theVFR flight category, but bases may lower into the MVFR
flight category at times this morning. Otherwise high pressure
will build in with fair weather andVFR conditions late
afternoon and this evening. Some patchy radiation fog may
develop tonight, but otherwise expect predominantlyVFR
conditions.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR.

Saturday night...VFR lowering to MVFR in rain.

Sunday... MVFR or ifr with rain, then snow. Strong winds.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR MVFR with scattered snow showers.

Marine
High pressure will build toward the region today with generally
light winds which will last into Saturday. A powerful storm
system will cut through the central great lakes Sunday and
Sunday night. As this system rapidly deepens it will produce at
least gale force winds on the lakes. This system has the
potential to produce storm force winds, and following
coordination it was determined to issue a storm watch for the
lakes.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... High wind warning from 7 am Sunday to 10 am est Monday for
nyz001>003-010-011-019-085.

Lakeshore flood watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday
night for nyz001-010-019-085.

High wind warning from 10 am Sunday to 10 am est Monday for
nyz004>008-012>014-020-021.

Lakeshore flood watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for nyz006-007.

Marine... Gale watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
lez020.

Storm watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
for lez040-041.

Gale watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday
night for loz030.

Storm watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
loz042>044-062>064.

Storm watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning
for loz045-065.

Synopsis... Apffel
near term... Apffel
short term... Thomas
long term... Hsk thomas
aviation... Apffel
marine... Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 17 mi38 min NW 12 G 13 32°F 1028.4 hPa26°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 75 mi80 min W 7 G 9.9 31°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 76 mi38 min 31°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
-12
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
Last
24hr
W15
G22
W14
G20
W18
G24
W13
G18
W17
G26
W18
G27
W20
G25
W18
G28
W18
G24
W12
G18
W11
G19
W15
G19
W17
G24
W16
NW17
NW16
G21
NW16
G20
NW15
G19
NW15
G20
NW15
NW15
NW14
G17
NW15
1 day
ago
SE9
G12
SE8
SE8
G14
SE10
G14
SE9
G14
SE6
G10
SE10
G21
SE12
G22
SE12
G17
SE12
G19
SE9
G15
SE12
G21
SE16
G23
SE16
G24
SE14
G22
SE13
G25
S7
G17
S12
G21
S12
G24
S13
G18
S14
G20
S9
G16
W14
G23
W17
G25
2 days
ago
SE4
S4
NW10
W10
G13
NW13
G17
W10
G14
W7
G12
W11
W9
G14
SW6
S7
SW9
G16
SW8
G11
SW8
G11
S7
G10
S7
G11
S9
G13
S8
S7
S8
SE7
G10
SE7
S6
G9
SE8
G11

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY11 mi26 minWNW 78.00 miOvercast32°F24°F73%1028.9 hPa
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY22 mi26 minW 610.00 miOvercast30°F24°F79%1028.7 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
Last 24hrW8W20
G25
W13
G21
W16
G26
W14
G21
W17
G24
W14
G25
W11W11
G19
W12W10W11
G17
W11
G21
W9W12NW9NW8NW9NW6NW5W5W6NW8NW7
1 day agoE4E456SE4E6SE8SE7SE7
G17
SE9
G16
SE10
G18
SE8
G15
SE7
G14
SE9
G17
SE6
G18
SE7E4SE45S10SW7SW7W7W11
2 days agoCalmCalm3NW8NW6W10W8W4SW3S4SW3SW4SW5S3S3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmSE3E3CalmSE3

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (8,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.