Tuesday, June19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
SUNY Oswego, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:51PM Tuesday June 19, 2018 10:01 PM EDT (02:01 UTC) Moonrise 11:09AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 41% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1031 Am Edt Tue Jun 19 2018
This afternoon..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds less than 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds less than 10 knots becoming northeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..Light and variable winds becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south less than 10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then scattered showers Saturday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 62 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201806192100;;781505 FZUS51 KBUF 191431 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1031 AM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-192100-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near SUNY Oswego, NY
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location: 43.46, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 192330
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
730 pm edt Tue jun 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure across the region will continue dry weather and
comfortable temperatures through tonight. A weak wave and area of
low pressure will track south of the region Wednesday, with a few
scattered showers and more cloud cover south of lake ontario. A weak
cold front will cross the region Wednesday night, with canadian
sourced surface high then expected to build into the lower lakes
with dry and fair weather through the end of the week.

Near term through Wednesday
Satellite imagery showing mid high clouds rapidly increasing across
western ny this evening, with plenty of clouds upstream from
southern ontario into michigan. Given the recent satellite trends,
increased sky cover through the rest of tonight with most areas
becoming mostly cloudy. The one exception may be the north country,
where high clouds may stay thin enough to remain partly cloudy.

Radar imagery shows a few light returns upstream across southern
ontario, but surface obs show none of this reaching the ground with
extensive sub-cloud evaporation. Any showers that do develop should
hold off until after daybreak. Expect lows in the mid to upper 50s
in most areas, with upper 40s to lower 50s for the north country
where clouds remain thinner.

On Wednesday a weak shortwave tracking out of the northern plains
will push a weak surface low south of the forecast area. Upstream
convection attendant to this feature continues to give the forecast
models some difficulty in resolving the track of the wave. Nam-based
guidance has trended a bit northward over the previous model runs,
while the medium range global models remain farther south. Have
hedged the forecast pops back to the north slightly out of respect
to the NAM based guidance. However, either way, QPF amounts should
be on the light side as the moisture will be eroded as it runs into
the drier air associated with the surface high to our east. Thus,
continue to keep pops limited to the chance range, even across the
southern tier, as there will likely be far more dry time than not on
Wednesday. Temperatures will range from the low 70s across the
southern tier where thicker cloud cover is expected to near the 80
degree mark across the lake plains.

Short term Wednesday night through Saturday
Wednesday night broad low pressure over labrador will push a dying
weak cool front southeastward across our region. With this feature
starved for both moisture and upper level support it should come
through largely dry... Save for perhaps the saint lawrence valley
and portions of the north country where a few isolated to widely
scattered light showers cannot be completely ruled out. Otherwise
the front will merely be marked by a brief limited increase in
cloud cover and a wind shift... With overnight lows ranging from the
lower 50s across the north country and interior southern tier to
the mid 50s elsewhere.

Following the passage of this boundary... Expansive canadian high
pressure will build southeastward across our region through Thursday
and Thursday night. Copious amounts of dry air and large-scale
subsidence attendant to this burgeoning ridge will provide our
region with pleasant weather... With mostly sunny mainly clear skies
accompanied by comfortable temperatures and humidity levels. Daytime
highs on Thursday should be in the lower to mid 70s... With the above
mentioned mainly clear skies... Light winds... And dry airmass then
allowing Thursday night's lows to dip into the lower to mid 50s
across the lake plains... And into the mid to upper 40s across the
north country and interior portions of the southern tier.

On Friday the surface ridge will slowly drift eastward and off the
new england coastline... While a closed mid level low over the mid-
mississippi valley gradually opens up and pushes into the lower
ohio valley... While preceded a bit by its attendant surface low.

The developing warm air advection regime between these two systems
will result in a gradual southwest to northeast increase in cloud
cover across areas south of lake ontario... With the warm frontal
zone attendant to the encroaching low now appearing to get close
enough to warrant the chance of a few late day showers across extreme
far southwestern new york. Otherwise the day should be dry with
fairly plentiful sunshine still prevailing across the eastern
finger lakes and north country... With the overall warm advection
pattern also helping daytime highs to climb back into the upper 70s
and lower 80s. This stated... Surface dewpoints will remain confined
to the lower to mid 50s... So it should still be rather comfortable.

Friday night and Saturday the now-open mid level trough will eject
northeastward across the ohio valley and great lakes... While its
associated broad surface low will meander its way northeastward into
nearby southern ontario and push its surface warm front into our
region. Increasing warm advection isentropic lift and moisture
pooling out ahead of the warm front will result in shower chances
ramping up from west to east Friday night... Followed by a numerous
showers and possible scattered thunderstorms areawide on Saturday
as some instability also gets added to the mix. With this in mind
have continued to trend pops upward for this 24 hour period... With
high likely pops reaching far western new york later Friday night...

then overspreading the entire area during Saturday. Meanwhile steady
warming and moistening of our airmass should translate into lows
mainly in the lower half of the 60s Friday night... With highs in
the 75 to 80 range on Saturday accompanied by the return of more
humid conditions as dewpoints surge back into the lower 60s.

Long term Saturday night through Tuesday
As the warm front pushes north of our region Saturday night... We can
look for a general decrease in coverage of the shower activity. The
extent of the showers should pick up again on Sunday when the
exiting storm system will drop a cold front through the region.

There will also be a renewed risk for some thunderstorms... Although
the bulk of the day should be rain free.

A large canadian high will then build south across the great lakes
Sunday night and Monday. This will promote clearing skies later
Sunday night with the return to beautiful weather Monday when we can
look forward to comfortable temperatures and much lower humidity.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr will prevail for the 00z tafs. Extensive mid high clouds will
spread across the region this evening and continue overnight. The
mid level clouds will persist through much of Wednesday, especially
along and south of the south shore of lake ontario. A few light
showers may develop across western ny, but the low levels will
remain unsaturated so expect CIGS vsby to remainVFR even if showers
materialize.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Friday...VFR.

Saturday...VFR MVFR... Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Sunday... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
High pressure across the region will maintain tranquil conditions
on the lakes into Wednesday. A weak cold front will cross the lakes
Wednesday night, but northeast winds and waves will remain below sca
conditions. High pressure will build across the region again through
the end of the week keeping an extended period of optimal boating
conditions.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Church
near term... Church hitchcock
short term... Jjr
long term... Smith
aviation... Hitchcock
marine... Church


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 1 mi44 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9 63°F 1014.4 hPa49°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 29 mi62 min W 5.8 G 5.8 60°F 58°F1 ft1013.8 hPa (-0.3)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 48 mi72 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 60°F 59°F1014 hPa (-0.6)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 58 mi62 min WSW 1 G 1.9 66°F 1014.9 hPa (-0.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 60 mi44 min 63°F 1014.1 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY10 mi68 minN 010.00 miFair61°F48°F63%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6W7NW5N8N5N7N10N7N5N11N11N11N12
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NW9NW8NW9NW7NW6W5CalmNE3
1 day agoCalmCalmS4S6S5S5S6S6S6SW6SW6SW7W9W14
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE4CalmCalmSE4535Calm4SW6SW53S8S6CalmSE3SE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.