Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
SUNY Oswego, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 8:03PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 2:41 AM EDT (06:41 UTC) Moonrise 2:18PMMoonset 3:12AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 150 Pm Edt Tue Apr 24 2018
This afternoon..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..East winds 10 knots or less. A chance of rain in the evening, then occasional rain overnight. Patchy fog overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Patchy fog in the morning. Occasional rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Showers. Waves building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 39 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201804242115;;436983 FZUS51 KBUF 241750 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 150 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-242115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near SUNY Oswego, NY
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location: 43.46, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 250538
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
138 am edt Wed apr 25 2018

Synopsis
A large... Slow moving storm system moving by to our south will
bring a period of widespread light rainfall to our region overnight
and Wednesday... With lingering showers then gradually tapering off
from west to east Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure and
drier builds across the lower great lakes.

Near term through today
Light rain will continue to spread northward across western ny
late tonight. Dry conditions will come to an end by daybreak
across the north country as a band of moderate rain moves
northward from i-90.

The responsible area of low pressure over the carolinas will
continue to pump increasing amounts of atlantic-based moisture
into our region as it heads toward the mid-atlantic coastline.

At the same time... Modest height falls aloft and a diffluent
upper level flow regime (owing to a weakly coupled upper level
jet) will help to lift this deepening moisture field... Resulting
in occasional light rain continuing to slowly spread
northeastward across our region... With the steadier rain finally
reaching the north country toward daybreak. Total nighttime
rainfall amounts will range roughly from up to a couple tenths
of an inch across far western new york to under a tenth of an
inch east of lake ontario... With some patchy fog also developing
overnight as the lower levels moisten. This will especially be
the case across the higher terrain (generally >1500') where the
lowering stratus will intersect the ridge tops.

On Wednesday... The southern stream stacked low will continue east to
the mid atlantic coast while a robust northern stream shortwave will
approach from the upper great lakes. Earlier guidance suggested that
these two features would phase in time to have an influence on our
weather... But it now appears that they will remain two distinct
features until they move east of our region. In any case... The axis
of the mid level trough between the two will cross our region and
help to focus more light to occasionally moderate rain. The amount
of lift is not forecast to be as significant as that from the
overnight... But there will be more moisture to work with. Will
maintain cat pops with daytime rainfall amounts in the vcnty of a
quarter to a half inch... With the higher amounts expected to be near
and east of lake ontario.

Short term tonight through Friday night
On Wednesday night, a closed 500 mb embedded in the northern branch
of the jet will absorb another low across the mid-atlantic states.

Model guidance differs on the track of this with the 12z gem ecmwf
guidance tracking this low across western new york while the NAM gfs
guidance is north and faster with its track. The southerly slower
track would result in more precipitation and have it last a bit
longer. The forecast uses a consensus of guidance with fairly steady
showers Wednesday evening tapering off from west to east overnight.

Consensus 850mb temperatures fall to around 0c which may allow some
wet snow to mix in across the highest terrain in the southern tier
but this will not result in any accumulation. Low temperatures will
range from the mid 30s to lower 40s on Wednesday night.

Showers will likely linger east of lake ontario into Thursday
morning, but the rest of the area should be mainly dry on Thursday
as a ridge of high pressure builds in from michigan. As a result the
forecast is a bit warmer with highs in the 50s with a modest lake
breeze developing in the afternoon. High pressure will then briefly
ridge across the region Thursday night with dry weather and lows in
the 30s.

A broad upper level trough axis will gradually shift to the east
coast Friday and Friday night. A broad surface low is forecast to
develop across the mid-atlantic states on Friday and track into new
england on Friday night. Model guidance differs, but this may clip
especially eastern portions of the CWA on Friday with some light
rain showers possible. Then showers are possible in all areas Friday
night when the upper level trough axis moves across the area.

Rainfall amounts should be fairly light with this, generally under a
quarter inch. Temperatures should be near normal with highs on
Friday in the mid 50s to around 60.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Showers will move through the area on Saturday as an upper level
trough drops from the great lakes to the new england coast. With
this trough passage temperatures will also cool to the low to mid
50s for Saturday and Sunday.

Behind the departing upper level trough, a ridge will begin to build
into the region providing warming temperatures and dry conditions
through the middle portion of the week. An area oh high pressure
will build to the south over the ohio valley and southeastern us.

This will allow a southwesterly flow to develop helping to aid in
strong warm air advection resulting in warmer temperatures for the
region. Temperatures will warm to the 60s for Monday and the 70s on
Tuesday. The weather should remain mostly dry through the middle
portion of next week with the influence of this high pressure to
the south of the area.

Aviation 05z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr conditions will gradually deteriorate from southwest to
northeast Wednesday as occasional light rain across western new
york spreads across the remainder of the region and the lower
levels of the atmosphere continue to moisten... Resulting in the
development of MVFR to ifr ceilings and eventually some patchy
fog. Expect the worst (ifr) conditions to develop across the
higher terrain... With conditions lowering to MVFR across the
lower elevations.

On Wednesday... Widespread MVFR to ifr CIGS will be in place across
the region as light to occasionally moderate rain will continue. The
lowest CIGS will again be found across the higher terrain.

Outlook...

Wednesday night... MVFR to ifr with lingering showers.

Thursday... Improvement toVFR with showers ending.

Friday and Saturday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers.

Sunday... MainlyVFR with a chance of rain or snow showers east
of lake ontario.

Marine
A relatively weak surface pressure gradient will remain in place
across the lower great lakes through Wednesday... As a large but
poorly organized storm system will pass by well to the south. This
will keep generally light winds and negligible waves in place.

In the wake of this system... Winds will freshen Wednesday night into
Thursday. This could lead to small craft advisory conditions for
sites on lake ontario east of thirty mile point.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jjr rsh
near term... Hsk jjr rsh
short term... Apffel
long term... Sw
aviation... Hsk jjr rsh
marine... Rsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 1 mi41 min S 4.1 G 5.1 54°F 1017.9 hPa (-0.5)42°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 58 mi41 min ESE 6 G 7 43°F 1017.9 hPa (-2.1)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 60 mi41 min 44°F 1017.1 hPa (-2.1)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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G15
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G23
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N7
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S7
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G14
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NE5
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N4
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W6
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G9
W3
SE1
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G9
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G6
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G10
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G11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY10 mi47 minS 810.00 miLight Rain54°F44°F69%1018.2 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S9SE4SE5SE4SE5S11S16
G21
S11S10
G17
S12SW13
G18
S10
G22
S11S7SW8N4NE3CalmCalmS7S5S6S8
1 day agoCalmSE3SE3SE4Calm4SE3SE4S75SE6SW746S3SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S93S6
2 days agoNW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4SW5W8W9W9NW10
G15
N6W7NW4NW4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.