Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oswego, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:26AMSunset 8:52PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 8:15 AM EDT (12:15 UTC) Moonrise 9:42AMMoonset 11:13PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 157 Am Edt Wed Jun 28 2017
Overnight..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day...then a chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ044 Expires:201706280900;;936580 FZUS51 KBUF 280557 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 157 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-045-280900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oswego, NY
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location: 43.47, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 280817
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
417 am edt Wed jun 28 2017

Synopsis
The upper level trough responsible for the rather cool and unsettled
weather of the past few days will finally move off to our east today...

with high pressure bringing dry weather to the bulk of the region.

Another storm system will then track into our region on Thursday and
provide our next opportunity for showers and thunderstorms... While
also ushering in warmer and somewhat more humid conditions.

Near term through tonight
During the course of today... The axis of the upper level trough that
has plagued our region over the past few days will slide from eastern
new york western new england to the canadian maritimes... While expansive
surface-based ridging over the ohio valley builds northeastward across
new york state. For the vast majority of our area... This will translate
into a much-welcomed dry day with just some fair weather cumulus... Along
with afternoon highs recovering into the lower to middle 70s as modest
warm air advection aloft pushes 850 mb temps up to between +9c and +12c.

The one exception to the dry weather will be found across the upper
saint lawrence valley and adjoining portions of the north country...

which will still lie along the western periphery of the departing
trough... And thus under somewhat cooler air aloft. Daytime heating of
this relatively cooler air should yield a decent amount of instability
(mucape of 1000-1500 j kg) by midday or early this afternoon... Which is
precisely when another modest shortwave will be crossing this region in
the prevailing northwesterly flow aloft. In conjunction with lingering
moisture... The instability and shortwave-induced lift should result
in the development of some widely scattered to scattered showers and
thunderstorms... For which some 30-40 pops will be in play. With freezing
levels remaining at unseasonably low (7-8 kft) levels... Would also not
at all be surprised if a few of these managed to produce some small hail.

Whatever convection that does develop across this particular region should
then quickly wane by late this afternoon early this evening... As the
shortwave departs and daytime heating diminishes.

Tonight the axis of the surface high will slide east and off the atlantic
coastline... While low pressure tracks from the upper mississippi valley
to upper michigan... And eventually pushes its attendant warm front across
far western new york during the overnight hours... With this feature
eventually reaching lake ontario by 12z Thursday. After a dry and quiet
evening... The approaching warm front will bring increasing mid and high
clouds to our region overnight... Along with the chance of some showers
to the lake plains of western new york. Given that the bulk of the warm
frontal forcing will remain to our northwest with plenty of dry air
remaining in place below 10 kft... At this point precipitation chances
for later on tonight should lie in the lower half of the chance range...

with any rainfall amounts being held to a few hundredths of an inch at
most. Otherwise... It will be a milder night with lows ranging from the
mid 50s across interior portions of the southern tier to the upper 50s
and lower 60s elsewhere.

Short term Thursday through Saturday
To start Thursday a warm front will be lifting northward across the
eastern great lakes region... This from a surface low that will be
near the soo region. The greatest isentropic lift ahead of the warm
front will be across lake ontario and points eastward... And will
place likely pops here, while south of lake ontario warm air
spreading northward and little forcing will bring a mostly dry start
to the day, with this dry weather lasting a good portion if not all
of Thursday.

Through the day Thursday a southerly flow will bring 850 hpa
temperatures upwards to +15 to +16c. This will promote temperatures
well into the 70s, with lower 80s possible across the downslope
areas of the genesee valley. The humidity will also be increasing,
and much greater than what we've seen the past few days. Dewpoints
will rise into the mid 60s, and in addition pwats will rise to 1.75
to 2.00 inches.

Surface winds will also increase Thursday with daytime mixing.

Southwest winds up lake erie will reach 25 mph, with gusts 30 to 35
mph from near the shoreline, and across the lake plain to about
rochester. Winds will not be quite as strong east of lake ontario
due to the later arrival of the stronger winds in the lower
levels.

The increasing dewpoints will support SBCAPE values of 1000 to 1500
j kg. Instability will likely grow largest across the genesee valley
and finger lakes region if a little sunshine can develop. Aloft a
strong flow of 35 to 45 knots between 925 and 850 hpa will support
thunderstorm development. Though much of the shear Tuesday will be
speed sheer (35 to 45 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear) there will be
increasing amounts of direction shear closer to the warm front
across the north country. The GFS supercell composite parameter
picks up on the increase in MUCAPE values and shear across the
northern finger lakes and eastern lake ontario region... And here is
where strong to severe storms will be possible Thursday late
afternoon and through the evening hours. The southwest winds will
also generate lake breeze boundaries and any boundary cold also
trigger a strong to severe storm across wny. As a result SPC has our
entire region in a marginal risk for severe storms Thursday and
through the late evening hours. The bulk of the storms Thursday will
be from the very late afternoon hours through the evening as an
upper level shortwave nears.

Thursday night as the weak surface low passes by to our north across
southern canada, a weak cold front will drop southward across the
region. This will maintain showers and thunderstorms through the
night, with the front dropping southward across the state line late
in the night. There will be little cold air advection behind the
cold front, with much of the cooling restricted to just the lower
few kilometers of the atmosphere. As a result Thursday night will
remain on the mild side with lows in the mid 60s to around 70f, and
with little change in the airmass, dewpoints in the 60s that will
create muggy conditions.

Friday a stronger surface low will track northeastward across the
central great lakes. This low will lift the frontal boundary from
pennsylvania back northward across new york as a warm front Friday.

There will still be a gusty breeze Friday, though likely not quite
as strong as Thursday due to a weaker LLJ aloft. This front will
again trigger another round of showers and thunderstorms. However a
ridge at 500 hpa and the slightly weaker LLJ should limit showers
and thunderstorms, with a good deal of dry time through the day.

High temperatures Friday behind the warm front and ahead of a deeper
surface low will reach into the 80s across much of the region, with
mid 80s across the downslope regions of the genesee valley.

Friday night and into Saturday several upper level shortwaves will
round an upper level trough of low pressure. Each of these shortwave
may trigger a shower or thunderstorm, with the greatest coverage
area and intensity likely to be Saturday when a stronger shortwave
passes, and pushes a cold front across the region. We will have one
more muggy night Friday night with overnight lows in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. Saturday ahead of the cold front we'll have high
temperatures again pushing to around 80, and warmer across the
genesee valley and finger lakes region. By late Saturday we'll start
to feel the humidity break, with dewpoints starting to lower.

Long term Saturday night through Tuesday
Saturday night and Sunday... This time period should mark the end of
an active pattern with high pressure slowly moving in with drying in
at least the mid levels. Humidity levels on Sunday will not be as
great as the last few days of june beginning of july. The main
threat for additional showers will be on Sunday afternoon along lake
breeze convergent regions.

Sunday night and Monday... This period should be dry with weak high
pressure moving toward the region from the upper midwest. Dry
weather area-wide isn't a guarantee this far out, but if the timing
of the current pattern holds, the natural progression should be
subsidence behind the Sunday system, with the exception of isolated
summer convection on lake breeze convergent regions by Monday
afternoon.

Monday night and Tuesday... High pressure generally over head should
negate any threat for convection. The 12z GFS is more optimistic
precipitation from the WV va appalachians into pa while the ec is
dry with a slightly stronger ridge over ontario extending S into ny.

Will lean on the dry side for now as the GFS has had some model
variability further upstream over the midwest when compared to a
more consistent pattern noted in successive ec runs.

Daily temperatures won't stray too far off normals for this time of
year, with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 and lows mostly in the
60s, with a slight cooling trend into early next week. Humidity
levels will vary, with some nights possibly warranting a c while in
the warm sector, but at this time don't see any extreme sultry days
or nights for weekend early next week. The warmest and most humid
period will be early during Saturday while in the warm sector.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
Mainly dry weather andVFR conditions will be found across western and
north central new york today as expansive surface high pressure ridges
northeastward from the ohio valley. The one possible exception to the
dry weather will lie across the saint lawrence valley and adjoining
portions of the north country this afternoon... Where the combination of
daytime heating and the passage of one final disturbance could yield
some widely scattered to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

This stated... These will likely not impact the kart terminal.

Tonight the axis of the surface high will slide east and off the atlantic
coastline... While low pressure tracks from the upper mississippi valley
to upper michigan... And pushes its attendant warm front across far western
new york and eventually to lake ontario. While the warm front will bring
an increase in mid and high cloud cover to the region along with the
chance of some showers...VFR conditions should continue to predominate.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...VFR MVFR with scattered to occasionally
more numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
High pressure building across the lower great lakes will result in
winds and waves remaining below advisory levels through this evening.

As the next frontal system works its way into our region later on
tonight and Thursday... Winds will then once again freshen out of the
south and southwest... Potentially bringing advisory-worthy conditions
to both lake erie and the upper niagara river buffalo harbor.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Jjr
short term... Thomas
long term... Thomas zaff
aviation... Jjr
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 0 mi45 min SSW 5.1 G 8 58°F 1018 hPa53°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 29 mi75 min W 12 G 14 62°F 64°F2 ft1017.3 hPa (+1.2)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 49 mi85 min WSW 9.7 G 12 62°F 62°F1 ft1017.5 hPa (+1.2)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 59 mi75 min WSW 8.9 G 12 60°F 1019 hPa (+1.1)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 61 mi45 min 61°F 1018.3 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY10 mi21 minWSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F54°F80%1018.4 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S7S6SW6W10
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SW5SW4SW7SW5SW5SW4SW5SW4SW3SW4SW3SW4SW5SW7
1 day agoW5SW46W7CalmW9SW6CalmS5CalmCalm3S5S3S4NW4S6S8S7S6CalmSE3CalmS4
2 days agoSW9
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NW4W13NW9CalmW6W4S5S6SW4S4S4SW3S3CalmS3SW3CalmSW5SW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.