Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oswego, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:31AMSunset 8:34PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 4:49 AM EDT (08:49 UTC) Moonrise 3:26AMMoonset 4:54PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1031 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 knots or less. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers in the evening...then rain likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Occasional rain during the day...then showers likely Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely during the day...then a chance of showers Friday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. The water temperature off rochester is 50 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201705230900;;056791 FZUS51 KBUF 230232 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1031 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LOZ043-044-230900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oswego, NY
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location: 43.47, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 230842
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
442 am edt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis
A weak ridge of high pressure will bring dry weather today through
most of Wednesday with temperatures above normal. Low pressure will
then bring more rain to the region Wednesday night and Thursday with
temperatures closer to normal.

Near term /through tonight/
Surface high pressure spans from the upper ohio valley northeast
across pa and ny this morning. Subsidence brought on by convergent
flow aloft will continue to support mainly clear skies across
western and central ny. Low temperatures will run in the upper 40s
to around 50 on the lake plains, with low to mid 40s in the cooler
sections of the interior southern tier and lewis county.

The surface high will slowly shift northeast through today and
tonight. Further north a weak mid level shortwave will move
northeast across southern ontario with little direct impact on our
area although it will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms
north of the canadian border. While we will remain dry today, the
shortwave will bring some increase in moisture and cloud cover, with
both mid level clouds and diurnal cumulus expected across the
region. Stable lake shadows will allow more sunshine northeast of
lakes erie and ontario. Temperatures will rebound to around 5
degrees above normal with the southerly flow. Highs expected to run
in the lower to mid 70s away from lake influences. Weak synoptic
scale flow and strong differential heating will allow local lake
breezes to develop with winds becoming onshore along all the
shorelines in the afternoon, keeping temperatures cooler within a
few miles of the lakes.

Tonight, the surface high will weaken over new england while a mid-
level ridge axis shifts over the eastern great lakes region. This
will continue fair weather while warm advection aloft and a bit more
cloud coverages holds overnight temps above normal. Lows should only
slip back into the low to mid 50s with some mid-upper 40s possible
in the colder valleys of the western southern tier.

Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/
Bubble of high pressure becoming centered across new england will
maintain dry weather across the area through the first half of
Wednesday.

High pressure will exit the region Wednesday as a deepening surface
low slowly tracks into the ohio valley. Model tracks differ
slightly, but most of the guidance eventually tracks this low across
ohio Wednesday night and across lake erie on Thursday. Increasing
moisture transport and lift on the front side of the approaching low
will eventually allow precipiation to blossom across the area. Onset
time may be slowed a bit from continuity based on slower track of
approaching surface low. Warm air advection and slower timing of
precipitation onset should allow high temperatures Wednesday to
reach the lower to mid 70s.

Does look like there will be at least a solid 6 to 12 hour period of
fairly steady rain starting late Wednesday in the far west and
filling in across the rest of the area through Thursday. The steady
rain should taper to more showery weather by Thursday night as the
surface low starts to shift east of the area.

Long term /Friday through Monday/
Our region will be under the influence of a progressive... Northern
branch of a split flow during this period. While this will allow for
fairly frequent shower activity... A closed off gomex will keep
rainfall amounts to a minimum. This pattern will also keep
temperatures from straying too far from normal... But on average...

they will tend to run a few degrees above typical late may values.

Breaking this down on a day to day basis...

a stacked storm system over eastern new york Friday morning will
exit across new england during the afternoon and evening. This will
keep some showers in place over our region... Particularly east of
lake ontario where pops will be raised to likely. Temperatures on
Friday will climb into the 60s.

Ridging will build across the lower great lakes late Friday night
and Saturday. While the models are not convinced that dry weather
will prevail during this time frame... Am fairly confident that the
aforementioned ridging and lack of mid level moisture will translate
into fair dry conditions. This should also help Saturday afternoon
temperatures climb into the 70s across most of the western counties.

As the ridge pushes east of our region Sunday and Monday... The next
longwave trough will dig across the upper portions of the
mississippi valley and great lakes region. This will result in
deteriorating conditions... Particularly late Sunday into Monday. In
other words... As it stands now we should be able to get through most
of Sunday before the skies 'open' again. Given the inconsistencies
between the medium range ensembles though... Confidence is lower than
normal.

Aviation /09z Tuesday through Saturday/
A weak ridge of high pressure slowly shift over the eastern great
lakes region through tonight withVFR cigs/vis expected. Weak warm
advection and diurnal cumulus will bring some increase in cloud
cover as a disturbance moves north of lake ontario but CIGS will
remainVFR with light southwest winds. The high pressure will
continue to bringVFR and fair weather through tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR.

Wednesday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

Saturday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
Weak high pressure shifting over the lower great lakes today through
Wednesday will provide light winds and little wave action through
the middle of the week. A storm system will pass over our region
Wednesday night through Friday but winds and waves will remain below
advisory levels.

Buf watches/warnings/advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Smith
near term... Smith
short term... Tma
long term... Rsh
aviation... Smith
marine... Smith


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 0 mi49 min S 8 G 9.9 49°F 1013.9 hPa (-1.3)44°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 29 mi49 min SSW 3.9 G 3.9 47°F 45°F1 ft1013.8 hPa (-1.0)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 49 mi59 min S 5.8 G 7.8 46°F 43°F1 ft1013.5 hPa (-1.2)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 59 mi49 min SSW 7 G 8 55°F 1014.9 hPa (-1.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 61 mi49 min 54°F 1013.9 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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NE8
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G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY10 mi55 minN 09.00 miFair43°F41°F93%1014.4 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr454SE356SE4SE5Calm36W11NW12
G23
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W9W5CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day ago5E54E7SE6SE9
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SE5S66
G15
5564S7S9SE5SE65455S7
2 days agoN6N7NE9NE935S3N7N7N9N7N9N9N10N10N5N5NE6NE4CalmCalm445

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.