Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 9:17 PM   Moonset 5:38 AM

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LOZ044 Expires:202404260315;;363417 Fzus51 Kbuf 251941 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 341 pm edt Thu apr 25 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-260315- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 341 pm edt Thu apr 25 2024
Tonight - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday night - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - South winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less.Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms Monday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 252245 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 645 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
Canadian high pressure will build over the eastern Great Lakes tonight before moving to New England Friday, providing a stretch of dry weather through Friday. Temperatures will warm nicely Friday after another cold night tonight. The warming trend will then continue over the weekend and into early next week, resulting in late spring-like warmth engulfing our region both Sunday and Monday.
While there will also be a few showers and thunderstorms around, particularly during Saturday, a fair amount of dry time can also be expected.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

One More Unseasonably Cold Night Tonight

Satellite imagery showing totally clear skies across the region early this evening. The clear skies, cool/dry airmass, and light winds will allow temperatures to plummet as soon as the sun goes down.

Sprawling Canadian surface high pressure will settle directly across our area this evening, then drift east over eastern NY/western New England tonight. This will guarantee our dry weather continues, but will also bring the promise of one more unseasonably chilly night, with light winds and clear skies promoting excellent radiational cooling conditions. Lows will be solidly in the 20s for the bulk of the region again tonight, with some upper teens not out of the question across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario where high pressure will be centered overhead. Meanwhile, areas along the immediate Lake Erie shoreline may 'only' bottom out in the low 30s as a light southeasterly return flow develops later tonight.

Strong high pressure remains in control of our weather on Friday as it continues to drift slowly east across New England. This will not only allow dry weather to persist for a second day, but a strengthening southeasterly return flow on the back side of the high will help boost temperatures by at least 10 degrees, pushing daytime highs into the upper 50s to mid 60s for most areas.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Mid-level ridging overhead of the Great Lakes Friday night will give become zonal due to a shortwave trough passing through the next incoming longwave trough to the west across the northern Plains.
Said shortwave trough will support a surface low overhead of the northern Plains sprawling a warm front across the Great Lakes. 12Z guidance continues to support the warm front to arrive late Friday night/early Saturday morning, before weakening and crossing from west to east Saturday and Saturday night.

Heading into Sunday, the region will lie under ample warm air advection supporting temperatures at 850mb to warm up to +12/13 C which will support high temperatures well above normal and ranging in the 70s, and possibly a few locations across the warmer areas of the Genesee Valley reaching in the low 80s. Combination of the warmer temperatures and the lingering synoptic lift from the lingering/stalled cold front to the north of the area, will support diurnally driven instability and afternoon showers/thunderstorms.

The mid-level ridge axis will cross the area Sunday night supporting a some dry weather to return Sunday night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Monday, will focus any chances for convective showers near a lingering frontal boundary that will waver across the Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario region. Could see a few thunderstorms during the afternoon with several hundred J/KG of MUCAPE, though much of the afternoon should be dry with developing lake breeze boundaries keeping areas closer to Lake Erie stable.

The main cold front will cross our region Tuesday with additional showers and thunderstorms. Showers and isolated thunder ahead of the front will reach a still mild WNY late Monday night and Tuesday morning. Best chances for thunder will be towards the east where a later arrival of the cold front will allow for some daytime instability to grow.

Still some timing differences with the eventual passage of the mid level trough, with chances for showers either Wednesday or Thursday depending upon timing of upper level support.

It will be a pleasantly warm day ahead of the cold front Monday, with southwesterly flow and 850 hPa temperatures 12-13C, promoting widespread upper 70s and lower 80s, and even mid 80s in the Genesee Valley. This southwest flow will keep downtown Buffalo a bit cooler. Also depending upon the eventual set up of a stalled frontal boundary draped across the eastern waters of Lake Ontario, a possible northerly component to the wind may keep the southeast shoreline a bit cooler.

Cooler, but still above normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, with around normal temperatures Thursday in the presence of the mid level trough and its associated cooler airmass.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure will build over the eastern Great Lakes tonight before drifting east to New England Friday. Clear skies and VFR will prevail tonight. VFR will continue to prevail Friday with a modest increase in high cirrus level clouds.

Outlook...

Friday night...VFR.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with some showers likely and an isolated thunderstorm possible.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms.

MARINE
Sprawling Canadian high pressure will build over the lower Great Lakes tonight before reaching eastern New York and western New England by Friday morning. This will provide our region with fair dry weather and light to modest winds tonight.

On Friday, the surface high will slide east to the New England coastline, with a general easterly to east-northeasterly flow continuing across the lower Great Lakes. On Lake Ontario winds will be more easterly, and will become strong enough to bring Small Craft Advisory conditions to the western portion of the lake west of Rochester Friday afternoon and evening. Northeast winds will also increase on Lake Erie again Friday with a moderate chop.

Flow will then veer south to southeast and strengthen Friday night and Saturday, however the offshore flow is expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 11 PM EDT Friday for LOZ042.

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