Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 7:30 PM Moonrise 2:19 PM   Moonset 4:00 AM

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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 300 Pm Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers this evening, then scattered sprinkles after midnight. Fri - E winds around 5 kt, becoming se with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Fri night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sat - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Scattered showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning. Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Sun night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mon night - S winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Tue night - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers after midnight.

ANZ100 300 Pm Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm high pressure gradually builds into the waters through Friday, resulting in a general onshore flow and the potential for low clouds and fog to develop into early Saturday a weak cold front associated with canadian low pressure crosses the waters on Saturday. High pressure will then build over the waters into early next week before low pressure approaches the region toward mid-week.

FXUS61 KGYX 181432 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1032 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak disturbance brings a chance for light showers across New Hampshire and far western Maine today into tonight. Temperatures will trend cooler as an onshore component to surface flow builds, culminating in the passage of a frontal system with light rain late Friday into Saturday. Quiet, mild, and dry weather, this time with more westerly flow, returns late Saturday through early next week.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
1030 AM Update...Made minor adjustments to the PoP/Wx forecast but largely kep the same logic. Radar showers a good smattering of rain showers along and south of I93 in NH this morning, however surface stations imply that a lot of this isn't reaching the ground. The column will steadily saturate with continued forcing along that band extending from Ottawa to the Atlantic south of Cape Cod. Related to this, have continued a cooler T trend under the clouds and where wet-bulbing is occuring in that zone... while maintaining warmer Ts elsewhere.

645am Update...Pushed back shower chances once again. Dry air arriving from strong high pressure has done a great job of giving surrounding states to the SW some light showers, but keeping NH dry. This should eventually wear thin through this afternoon. Temps stayed pretty mild overnight where clouds were thicker (NH and far SW ME), and these locations may also see little Min to Max temperature range today.

Previous Discussion...
Cirrus will be streaming over much of the area today, with some cu developing across interior ME and NH today. Densest cloud cover will be over parts of western and southern NH, where on and off showers/sprinkles will be on the increase this afternoon and evening.

Dry air has certainly been strong overnight into this morning, with each band of incoming rain succumbing to it plus orographic effects. Moisture advecting into upstate NY should eventually build and overcome lower level dry air, resulting in light showers later.

Temperatures on the day will warm the best where cirrus is thin, and this looks to be up towards the Kennebec River Valley an into interior ME with highs in the low to mid 50s. Depending how quickly clouds thicken, could also see these warm temps up towards the northern end of the CT River Valley.

Shower chances linger in NH and far western ME until this evening. Decrease in coverage is expected thereafter, with a fairly mild night in store.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Onshore winds increase Friday with clouds sticking around.
Temperatures should be a bit more uniform compared to Thursday, with highs generally in the mid to upper 50s. Cooler values are possible along immediate coast (mid 40s to around 50) due to advecting marine air. Profiles do bring to saturate towards late afternoon ahead of a cold front. This brings the chance for showers to the mountains initially, before overspreading eastward into the evening and overnight hours. Trends continue to show weak QPF out of this, and possible some areas only see a trace of precip before midnight.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
An upper level ridge of high pressure off the Eastern Seaboard is replaced by a broad upper level trough over the weekend.
While it will bring some unsettled weather, it is expected to not be impactful with light precipitation amounts. If anything, this change in synoptic setup results in a change of gradient flow more favorable for westerly flow... and less favorable for onshore flow, which should make for a pleasant stretch of Spring weather.

A cold front brings light rain showers, generally less than a quarter inch total across the region later in the day Friday through Friday night with some question as to how quickly the front will move out. Would expect the overnight to be fairly humid with potential for low clouds and fog too, given more onshore flow residency.

Saturday will see the cold front exit with stronger mixing, drier air, and breezier winds up to around 25-30 mph out of the west. This will allow warmer temperatures as well despite a little bit of a dip in t850, with highs generally in the 50s across the north but into the low/mid-60s south of the mountains. There is a chance the front hangs up a bit near our area, which would prolong clouds and lead to a little cooler temperatures.

A cooler airmass briefly settles across the international border Sunday into Monday under a broad upper level trough with clearing skies. Predominantly westerly flow continues in the meantime, which will keep the maritime influence at bay for the most part and allow for a warming (and drying) trend. Highs are forecast to be in the 50s and low-60s, with light flow and interior surface heating likely allowing seabreezes to develop. By Tuesday, high pressure is more likely to be located to our south... setting up a more southerly flow, with further warming over the interior especially west but allowing more maritime influence along the coast and into interior southern Maine.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Short Term...VFR today with diurnal winds. Some MVFR cigs possible across western NH today, lingering overnight with SHRA. Vis shouldn't be impacted by these showers. Cigs improve Friday morning, but could still have scattered MVFR for mainly southern and western NH early. Winds will become more decidedly SE this evening, becoming light overnight, and continuing Friday.

Long Term...MVFR to IFR is more likely to develop Fri night into Sat with -SHRA and lowered CIGs . VFR and W winds return late Sat or Sun, lasting through the start of the coming week.

MARINE
Short Term...Below SCA conditions. A few gusts around 20 kt will be possible today and Friday. Onshore flow may result in patches of fog or low clouds that impact visibility today and Friday.

Long Term...SE flow continues Fri night, with an unlikely chance of touching 25 kts while seas similarly increase to 2-4 ft. A cold front crosses Sat with winds turning W to SW AOB 20 kts thru Sun and into Mon with daily sea breezes possible. S to SE flow develops by midweek.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

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