Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bolton Landing, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 6:00PM Monday October 23, 2017 8:14 PM EDT (00:14 UTC) Moonrise 10:48AMMoonset 8:40PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bolton Landing, NY
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location: 43.54, -73.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 240002
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
802 pm edt Mon oct 23 2017

Synopsis
An unseasonably warm and humid air mass will be over the
region tonight ahead of a slow moving cold front, as scattered
showers will increase well in advance of the front with windy
conditions towards daybreak. The cold front will bring some heavy
rain and a chance of thunderstorms with gusty winds Tuesday
afternoon into the early evening period. Some scattered showers may
linger north and east of the capital region on Wednesday with
slightly cooler and drier weather north and west until an upper
level disturbance arrives Wednesday night with isolated to scattered
showers.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
A multi-hazard event will impact portions of the region tonight
through Tuesday with gusty winds, heavy rain, and strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms.

Forecast on track. Southerly flow will strengthen tonight as
region is squeezed between an approaching strong cold front and
an amplified ridge over the western atlantic. This evening's
sounding already has strong southerly winds around 40 knots at
925-850 mb. Some adjustments were made through the overnight
hours; otherwise forecast in good shape.

Previous discussion,..A high amplitude ridge continues to move
downstream of ny and new england tonight as strong upper level
trough is forming as a northern stream short- wave is phasing
with a southern stream shortwave over the midwest lower great
lakes region early this evening. A strong sfc cyclone deepens
and intensifies, as it lifts north northeast in the northern
great lakes region by tomorrow morning. A full-latitude mid and
upper level trough sets up east of the ms river valley.

The low-level south to southeast flow strengthens over the
forecast area. As the 12z GEFS continues to show a +v-component
meridional southerlies wind anomaly of +3 to nearly +5
standard deviations std devs above normal. The h925 winds
increase to 40-50+ kts by daybreak on the nam GFS ec. The latest
nam12 30agl winds are increasing to 40-55 kts over the higher
terrain, especially the eastern catskills southern
adirondacks and western new england higher terrain including the
taconics between 06z-12z. We are concerned some of these winds
may translate to the sfc and have issued a wind advisory in all
locations except southern litchfield county, the mid hudson
valley of western dutchess and eastern ulster counties, and the
northern reaches of the lake george region including warren and
northern washington counties, as well as eastern windham co in
southern vt. Funneling channeling of the south to southeast
winds may allow for stronger gusts in the capital region and
narrow valleys leading into the mohawk valley. We are expecting
winds gusts possibly in the 46-57 mph knocking down some leafed
tree limbs trees power lines. The greatest threat definitely
looks like the higher terrain. The winds increase towards
daybreak. The bufkit profiles show lack of a strong inversion so
mixing down momentum strong winds from 1-3 kft agl is possible
especially towards daybreak.

Meanwhile the low-level theta-e and moisture advection increases
on the nose of the low-level jet and with a weak impulse in the
south to southwest low to mid level flow. Scattered showers
will become more numerous south and west of the capital region
towards daybreak. Locations north and east will have some patchy
fog and light rain. Some downsloping off the western new
england higher terrain may curtail the QPF and pcpn. The strong
lift with the front looks like it will begin to reach our
western most zones close to daybreak based on the timing of the
consensus from the NAM gfs ECMWF can ggem.

It will be a warm and humid night with lows above the normal
highs for this time of year! Lows will only be in the mid 50s to
lower to mid 60s. South to southeast winds will be 15 to 25 mph
with some gusts in the 30-50 mph range. Sfc dewpts rising into
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday night
A multi-hazard event will impact portions of the region through
Tuesday with gusty winds, heavy rain, and strong to possibly
severe thunderstorms.

The cold front slowly moves west to east across the forecast
area in the morning, and there are some indications from the
guidance that strong to severe thunderstorms may materialize
with a narrow cold frontal rainband. The h850 winds increase to
50-75 kts. The h925 winds continue at 40-50 kts especially from
the capital region east into the afternoon. The 0-6 km bulk
shear values are 50-75 kts and the 0-1 km bulk shear is 40-50
kts. Both the nam GFS have sbcapes of 200-500+ j kg with the
highest values from the eastern catskills and the hudson river
valley eastward. A classic high shear and low CAPE environment
for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms sets up. The spc
slight risk is maintained across the majority of the forecast
area. We agree with it, and many of the cams show some discrete
convective cells forming into a line lines in the late morning
to early to mid afternoon. Damaging winds would be the main
concern, but we can not rule out an isolated spin-up tornado
with impressive 0-1 km bulk shear helicity, low lcls and the
impressive wind fields overall.

The 850 hpa moisture flux convergence increase to +5 std devs
above normal with pwats in the +3 to +4 std devs above normal
based on the 12z gefs. The actual pwats will be in the
1.25-1.75+ inch range which are uncanny for late oct. The
anomalous moisture is being tapped from the gulf and caribbean
with an atmospheric river. The low-level wind anomaly gradually
shift east during the day, but it is concerning how the low to
mid and upper level flow becomes parallel. The GFS nam ec
shifted slightly further east with the axis of heaviest
rainfall. We believe 1-2+ inches is possible over eastern ny
with some slightly higher amounts. East of the hudson river
valley into western new england 2-4" are possible especially
since a wave may get going along the front into the evening
period. We believe 1" hr rainfall rates are possible, and our
greatest confidence for potential flash flooding is over western
new england, and we collaborated with our neighboring offices
and have placed a flash flood watch out from noon tomorrow until
6 am wed. It might be canceled sooner if the front shifts east
far enough. Training of the showers is also a strong
possibility. Some training of showers thunderstorms looks to
occur outside the watch area, and poor drainage flooding of low
lying areas will also be a concern (see hydro discussion below).

Wpc continued much of the area in slight risk for flash
flooding. The zonal FFG values remain high in the 3-hr range at
2-3" due to the dry antecedent conditions across the forecast,
but if the rain rates are too heavy, then the rain may just run
off. We also kept the wind advisory running until 6 pm, but
should be able to drop portions possibly earlier.

Tuesday night the rain begins to diminish from west to east tue
night especially after midnight from the hudson river valley
eastward. There is still some uncertainty how quickly the front
moves east and where any weak ripples of low pressure track
along it. A dry slot to system begins to work in and we tapered
the showers westward. Highs will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s
on Tuesday with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s west of the
hudson river valley, and mid and upper 50s to the east.

Overall expecting 1-3" of rain across the region with the higher
amounts of 3-4" and possibly more over western new england and
possibly portions of the eastern catskills southern adirondacks
with southeasterly upslope flow.

Wed-wed night... Some showers may linger across western new
england in the morning. Low and mid level cold advection occurs
in the wake of the boundary, as the mid and upper level trough
lingers upstream. Some sunshine may mix with clouds during the
pm. Some lake effect enhanced showers may move into the western
adirondacks late in the day into the early evening. The winds
will be much lighter from the south to southwest with highs in
the mid 50s to lower 60s over the higher terrain, and mainly mid
and upper 60s in the valleys and over some of the hills. The
upper level trough secondary cold front moves through Wed night
with limited moisture to work with. Some isolated to scattered
showers are possible outside of the hudson river valley. Lows
fall back into the mid 30s to mid 40s across the region.

Long term Thursday through Monday
The pattern will be dominated by a long-wave trough over the eastern
u.S. Through this period with strong short-waves re-inforcing a turn
to cooler and unsettled weather. The gfs ECMWF and GEFS are in
reasonably good agreement through this period with relatively minor
differences developing over the weekend with a potential coastal
system. Our early-to-mid week system will be lifting northeast away
from the area on Thursday with low chance pops for showers ending
from southwest to northeast. A weak ridge of high pressure will move
east across new england on Friday then the flow will return to
southwesterly on Saturday as the next cold front approaches from the
west. This will allow temperatures to rebound to above normal again
by Saturday, but this will be a short-lived occurrence as
another significant trough is forecast to develop over the
northeast over the weekend through early next week.

Medium to long-range models are in reasonably good agreement showing
the significant deepening of the upper trough over the eastern u.S.

From Saturday through Monday. Models all indicate that a mid-level
trough will close off somewhere over the east by late Sunday with
low pressure developing along the coast and moving north toward new
england the canadian maritimes. Details are somewhat uncertain at
this time but this system will certainly bring the potential for a
significant rain event somewhere over the eastern third of the u.S.

Sunday into Monday. Per previous discussion this trough may end up
entraining some tropical moisture depending on how much amplitude
ultimately develops, and this of course would greatly enhance the
heavy precipitation potential. Some high elevation snow can't be
ruled out by early next week as the surface through mid-level system
brings the coldest air mass of the season to the region by
Monday.

Aviation 23z Monday through Saturday
A strong cold front will approach from the west Tuesday and move
gradually eastward across the region during the afternoon and
nighttime hours.

Clouds will lower to widespread MVFR this evening the persist.

As the cold front approaches showers are expected to develop
and increase in areal coverage across the area overnight and
especially Tuesday morning. Guidance is in good agreement a
narrow line of showers and embedded thunderstorms will accompany
the front as it crosses the region with very heavy rainfall;
ifr conditions are expected.

Southeast to south flow will increase tonight to 10 to 15 knots
with gusts into the 20s, especially at kalb. On Tuesday, the
southerly flow will increase more to 12 to 20 knots with up to
25 to 30 knots (possibly higher), especially at kalb where the
flow is enhanced up the hudson valley.

Have low level wind shear (llws) in tafs as this evening sounding
already has around 40 knots at 925-850 mb. Drop mention of llws
as surface flow increases.

Outlook...

Tuesday night: high operational impact. Definite shra... Tsra.

Wednesday: slight chance of shra.

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Fire weather
An unseasonably warm and humid air mass will be over the
region tonight ahead of a slow moving cold front, as scattered
showers will increase well in advance of the front with windy
conditions towards daybreak. The cold front will bring some heavy
rain and a chance of thunderstorms with gusty winds Tuesday
afternoon into the early evening period. Some scattered showers may
linger north and east of the capital region on Wednesday with
slightly cooler and drier weather.

The rh values increase to 85 to 100 percent tonight in the
showers, and only lower to 65 to 85 percent tomorrow afternoon.

They increase close to 100 percent Wednesday morning.

The winds will increase from the south to southeast at 15 to 25
mph overnight with some gusts in the 30 to 50 mph range towards
daybreak. These winds will linger into Tuesday. The winds will
decrease to the west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph on Wednesday.

A widespread rainfall is expected tonight into Tuesday evening.

Hydrology
A flash flood watch has been issued from noon tomorrow to 6 am
Wednesday for all of western new england including southern vt,
the berkshires and litchfield county ct.

Although recent dry weather has allowed for low river flows, a
period of excessive rainfall may still allow for some hydrologic
impacts Tuesday through Wednesday.

A deep and persistent southerly flow will allow a very moist
air mass to move into the region for tomorrow, with pwat values
reaching 1.25 to 1.75+ inches. These values are 3-4 std devs
above normal for late october. As a slow moving frontal boundary
approaches the region, bands of heavy rain showers and
thunderstorms will train over the region.

In areas that see repeated bursts of heavy rainfall, flooding of
poor drainage and low lying areas looks to occur. This will
especially be true in urbanized areas and isolated flash
flooding is possible as well. However, the high 3-hr FFG values
of 2-3" may lower the threat of flash flooding over eastern ny
due to a slightly faster movement of the front. A flash flood
watch was issued for high rainfall rates (over 1" per hour)
which may cause flooding to occur, despite the initially low
flows in western new england. We may have to expand the flash
flood watch westward if the threat increases over eastern ny.

Main stem rivers will have large rises and some will come close
to bankfull. Overall, basin average QPF will be 1 to 2.5
inches in eastern ny, although localized point totals that see
repeated heavy rainfall may receive 2-4+ inches of rain,
especially over western new england.

While widespread river flooding is not expected, some flashier
river points could see a brief period of minor flooding for
Tuesday into Tuesday night. At this point hope in hamilton
county on the schroon is only forecasted to reach minor
flooding. We will continue to monitor this possibility.

Although there could be some lingering rain showers Wednesday
into early Thursday, any additional rainfall looks rather
light. Dry weather will then return for Friday into Saturday,
which should allow river and steam flows to recede somewhat.

However, additional rainfall will be possible to end the weekend
and into early next week which will increase the flows once
again.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Wind advisory from midnight tonight to 6 pm edt Tuesday for
ctz001.

Flash flood watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night for ctz001-013.

Ny... Wind advisory from midnight tonight to 6 pm edt Tuesday for
nyz032-033-038>041-047>054-058>061-063-066-082-084.

Ma... Wind advisory from midnight tonight to 6 pm edt Tuesday for
maz001-025.

Flash flood watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night for maz001-025.

Vt... Wind advisory from midnight tonight to 6 pm edt Tuesday for
vtz013-014.

Flash flood watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night for vtz013>015.

Synopsis... Wasula
near term... Iaa wasula
short term... Wasula
long term... Mse
aviation... Iaa kl
fire weather... Frugis wasula
hydrology... Frugis wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Glens Falls, Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport, NY13 mi82 minN 010.00 miOvercast64°F57°F81%1018.9 hPa

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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S7S13
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SE3S4SE4S8S5S4S3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5SW5S5S6SE7S5E4CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Mon -- 02:39 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:08 AM EDT     4.39 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:51 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:33 PM EDT     5.33 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.10.20.112.33.44.14.44.13.32.31.71.20.50.20.92.43.84.75.25.34.63.4

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:30 AM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:00 AM EDT     4.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:41 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:25 PM EDT     5.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.70.8-0-012.43.444.23.9321.40.90.30.112.53.84.65.154.33.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.