Sunday, June24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bolton Landing, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:15AMSunset 8:40PM Sunday June 24, 2018 1:21 AM EDT (05:21 UTC) Moonrise 5:22PMMoonset 3:07AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bolton Landing, NY
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location: 43.54, -73.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 240510
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
110 am edt Sun jun 24 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will track across our region tonight with scattered
showers. An upper disturbance and cold front will track through
our region Sunday with another round of showers and
thunderstorms. One last upper disturbance and reinforcing cold
front will drop south Monday with isolated thunderstorms
possible near the new york, new england border into new england.

Dry weather is expected Tuesday through the middle of the week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 110 am edt... Weak sfc cyclone is moving across upstate ny
this morning with the better synoptic forcing with the sfc wave
and upper low over northern ny and northwest of the capital
region. Some showers have increased across the western and
southern adirondacks and we have increased the pops to likely or
low chance there. Low stratus, patchy fog, and some spotty light
showers or drizzle have persisted south and east of the
adirondacks. We did drop the pops across the berkshire, NW ct
and the mid hudson valley in the mid morning. Overall, temps
will be steady of slightly jog up a few degrees in the moist and
relatively cool late june air mass. A cold front remains poised
north of the st lawrence river valley and that will be the
feature to focus showers and thunderstorms later today with an
upper level disturbance. Temps will be in the mid 50s to lower
60s.

Short term 6 am this morning through Tuesday
The primary upper disturbance tracks through our region Sunday
and the trailing cold front drops south as the upper disturbance
exits. Breaks in the clouds outside of any shower and
thunderstorm activity should help temperatures rise and increase
instability everywhere. Instability should be limited, though,
and the lack of severe weather in western pa and ny suggests sub
severe thunderstorms Sunday. Boundary layer flow from the west
and southwest should also help some of the clouds to mix out,
allowing for at least intervals of sun.

The boundary layer winds shift to north behind the front but the
magnitude of the winds at the boundary layer is rather weak and
instability is mostly surface based since the midlevel lapse
rates are not very steep. The low level wind shift, boundary
layer thermal and moisture boundary should support better
coverage of showers and storms Sunday afternoon. However, the
west boundary layer flow will be downslope in some areas, so
coverage and intensity of the convection should be somewhat
limited and sub severe but some locally heavy rain and some
gusty winds are possible. Highs Sunday well into the 70s to near
80.

The upper disturbance and cold front steadily exit Sunday night
with any lingering shower activity ending before daybreak
Monday. Clouds will break up through the day Monday but one last
trailing upper disturbance dropping out of canada will brush
through parts of the southern adirondacks, lake george saratoga
region into southern vt and the berkshires Monday afternoon.

There is a good consensus that there should be enough left over
moisture and much steeper midlevel lapse rates that would
support at least isolated thunderstorms over the higher terrain,
but instability will be scant in the cool air mass.

Highs Monday with the cooling and drying in the 70s with some
upper 60s in the southern adirondacks. More cooling and drying
expected Monday night and Tuesday. More widespread sunshine will
help temperatures rise to the 70s to around 80 Tuesday.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
The long term forecast period will begin with high pressure overhead
followed by a strong low pressure system progressing through the
region mid-to-late week. Very strong upper ridging and hot
conditions will be in store for the end of the week into the
weekend.

Tuesday night through Thursday... This period will begin with
departing high pressure and increasing clouds from west to east. A
robust dynamic system and surface cold front will approach the
region during the late Wednesday into early Thursday time period
bringing a chance for thunderstorms. Recent deterministic trends
have been jumping around with the timing of the frontal passage
which will be critical to available instability. Regardless though,
this system will have to be watched closely for strong thunderstorm
potential as we head into next week. Decreasing cloud cover and
lingering showers will be around late Thursday.

Friday and Saturday... There could be some lingering showers over
northern zones early Friday. Strong upper ridging will build in for
the end of the week with anomalously high h500 heights.

Deterministic, blended, and MOS guidance all suggest a prolonged
period of well above average temperatures heading into the weekend.

Trends will have to be watched for potential heat headlines.

Starting Friday it looks like we will have multiple days of high
temperatures above 90f with dew points in the 60s around the
region.

Aviation 05z Sunday through Thursday
Currently, showers are isolated across the
region resulting in generally MVFR to borderline ifr conditions
across the area. Showers are expected to continue to progress across
the region during the overnight hours (00z - 12z). This will result
in largely MVFR borderline ifr conditions continuing through the
overnight hours. Light and variable winds are expected overnight. We
will need to watch for the possibility that localized areas of fog
further reduce visibility.

A frontal system approaches Sunday with additional showers along the
diffuse frontal boundary. Will include a prob30 for isolated
thunderstorms possible after 17z . Generally MVFR conditions should
prevail. Winds are expected to remain relatively light across the
region, generally below 10 kt. Winds will slowly veer throughout the
day as the front sags south across the region.

Outlook...

Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Monday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Wednesday night: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Thursday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Fire weather
Unsettled weather will prevail this weekend with a complex storm
system bringing showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. High
pressure will begin to build back in on Monday with drier
conditions returning.

The rh values will be near 100 percent tonight and remain elevated
in the damp air mass Sunday with showers likely and scattered
thunderstorms. The min rh values on Monday will be 40 to 60
percent.

The winds will be from the east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph
tonight, and switch from the south to west to northwest at 5 to
15 mph on Sunday. Winds will shift to the north and northwest
Monday at around 15 mph.

A wetting rainfall of a half an inch to an inch is possible
through Sunday.

Hydrology
No widespread hydro problems are expected into next week. Most
of the entire hydro service area hsa is under abnormally dry
conditions according to the latest us drought monitor.

As a storm system moves across the region, periods of showers
and a few thunderstorms are expected through Sunday evening.

Basin average rainfall amounts are expected to range between
half an inch to an inch, though locally higher amounts are
possible with any thunderstorms.

Minimal rises are expected on the waterways. Dry weather
returns Monday afternoon into the midweek before another cold
front moves across the region for Wednesday into Thursday with
some scattered showers or thunderstorms. Some locally heavy
downpours will be possible.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Climate
Due to a power outage at kgfl for roughly 4 hours this morning,
all climate data is estimated due to be possibly missing.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Nas wasula
near term... Wasula
short term... Nas
long term... Cebulko
aviation... Vtk
fire weather... Nas
hydrology... Nas
climate... Aly staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Glens Falls, Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport, NY13 mi28 minN 010.00 miOvercast58°F57°F97%1009.3 hPa

Wind History from GFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5S6S3CalmCalmCalmCalm--------NW5SW7S3SE4CalmCalmE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN6N5N53CalmSW4CalmCalm4S7--SE5S3SW3CalmCalmCalmS3S6S7
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4SE3NE11NE11NE9E9E12E12
G18
NE7
G15
E11NE15N12NE12N16NE9N3N7N6N6

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Sun -- 03:00 AM EDT     5.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:36 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:19 PM EDT     4.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:50 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.944.95.354.23.42.41.20.1-00.922.93.74.24.13.52.82.11.20.2-0.20.6

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Sun -- 02:52 AM EDT     5.17 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:26 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:11 PM EDT     4.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:40 PM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
344.95.24.73.93.12.10.8-0.1-0.10.922.93.74.13.93.22.51.80.9-0.1-0.30.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.